The Official AOTC Box Office prediction thread. [Archive]

JonathanLB

Feb 7th, 2002, 11:38:33 AM

I would of course love to say I know it will make $500 million, but obviously I don't know that, haha, I wish I was that confident ;)

Opening Day: $35 million

Opening Weekend:
Fri - Sun - $80 million
Thurs - Sun $115 million

Weekend 2 Memorial Day weekend:

$65 million (3 day)
$81 million (4 day) (will roughly equal the first weekend because of the extra day, which is about what happened with TPM)

Total Gross $510 milion

Worldwide Gross: $1.25 billion

The closer international release dates will greatly curb piracy, which will increase revenue at least significantly, perhaps by $30 or $40 million, which in the huge scheme of things you could say is not a huge amount, but I believe it matters. The fact that many countries were introduced to Star Wars with TPM and have had time to get back into the phenomenon is going to help AOTC, I believe, because their interest will have increased even since last time.

I also predicted that AOTC would have slightly lower staying power than TPM. If I had said it would have equal staying power, I'd have estimated $530 million for the film total because using its larger opening weekend (my estimate), I could have just multiplied that number, 80/64.8 (which I did for my own info) by 431.1, then I would have arrived at a final total of just over $530 million. Instead, I said it would have slightly less staying power because I don't believe that it will have the benefit of the charity run, first of all, and I also think it's rate of decline some weekends may be just ever so slightly greater, but not that much whatsoever.

Again, though, it would not disappoint or surprise me if AOTC made about $375 million even. That would still be a ton of money and would firmly place the prequel trilogy on course to become the highest grossing of all time. It would also maintain the Star Wars legacy for excellence at the box office, because that is nothing to scoff at by any means.

However, the true record that I would personally like to see held is that of every single Star Wars film becoming one of the top three highest grossing of all time in one release. When ANH came out, it was #1, then ESB was #2, ROTJ was actually #3, behind ANH and E.T., head of ESB, and then TPM was #3 behind Titanic and ANH. No Star Wars film has failed to enter the top three highest grossing films of all time in one release. So to do that this time, AOTC is going to need $432 million or perhaps more if that E.T. release really takes off and pushes its total to like $450 million, say.

Realistically I would say Episode II could make as little as $375 million, or as much as $550 million. Both extremes seem unlikely to me. Ticket price inflation has made a number as low as $375M pretty hard to believe because in 1999 dollars that would be like $340 million or less. Way worse than TPM. $550 million would be just absolutely incredible, again hard to believe, but a very impressive opening followed by excellent staying power, perhaps aided by good to great critical reviews (I ain't holding my breath, don't know about you guys), great fan reaction even from the die-hards, good media attention, and just the right set of rather weak competition could make for AOTC holding enough theaters throughout the summer to make it to $550 million eventually (within 2002).

Anything more than $400 million I think has to be considered pretty darn satisfying. The last time a fifth movie in a saga made that much was, never, obviously, duh! ;)

Star Trek V? lol... hmmm... no.

Bond 5? Don't know how much it made, couldn't have been much.

Wasn't there a Rocky V? Couldn't have done that well.

Has any 5th movie cleared $100 million? $200 million definitely not...

I have a feeling AOTC is really going to rock, plus, I think a lot of those fans who were displeased with TPM are actually going to love this movie, but then all we are going to hear for the next three years is how much "TPM SHOULD HAVE BEEN LIKE AOTC!" which obviously only a total idiot would say. TPM shouldn't be like anything else because AOTC is not supposed to be anything like TPM, duh. Man, the stupidity of fans will really kill me if I let it get to me. *must stay off TFN forums* haha, yeah right, I know I won't :)

BTW: I'm doing my part for AOTC by seeing it at least 50 times this summer, my promise, so I hope you're all going to do your parts ;)

Darth23

Feb 7th, 2002, 12:08:13 PM

I think Range is a good category too - Upper and lower predictions.

Lower: $375 million sound good

Upper: $550 million

BUFFJEDI

Feb 7th, 2002, 12:30:17 PM

If I'm not mistaken,(and over course I could beO_o ) I think I prdicted 550 mil awhile back and I'm sticking to it. I also feel not only can and will almost do 2bil. world wide.I know that may be WAY!!! out there BUT I have a strong/good feeling about this film.Of course it nay not and I may be saying the same thing in 3 years when EP 3 comes out;) . Like Jon (bless his SW loving heart)I'll do my part with 100 viewings at the theaters.That is of course if it's as good as I feel it will be.I Really feel alot of TPM bashes who have sworn off SW will flock to see AOTC,of course they will not admit to it.And with the realese dtaes being so close world wide I dont think word of mouth (if it's only par)will not hurt the box office numbers like TPM.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 7th, 2002, 12:57:31 PM

Actually I think Ep3 will gross the least because it is by far going to be the darkest which will hurt it with the general population, AOTC has a lot action in it and that will help it. I am nearly certain it will do at least 400 but I am sticking with at least 450 it could do 500-550 but that would be a huge shock, though a good one.

darth_mcbain

Feb 7th, 2002, 01:00:35 PM

Man... I don't know if I'll make it to 50 or 100 viewings like you guys - thats a LOT of times... :) I'm probably ok for a good dozen or so viewings, so that will have to be my part...

BUFFJEDI

Feb 7th, 2002, 01:03:56 PM

Don't be a slacker Mcfly, I mean Mcbain ;)

Darth23

Feb 7th, 2002, 02:30:17 PM

I thought 24 times was a lot.

:p

I'll se it at least 4 times - it depends on how much I like it.

For me TPM was like a drug - I kept having to get my fix - at least once a week even late into the summer and when it was in the discount theaters.

darth_mcbain

Feb 7th, 2002, 02:37:02 PM

I think I saw TPM around 15 times in the theaters - hopefully I'll see AOTC probably about the same. Of course, it depends on how good it actually is, but if what we're hearing is true, I don't think we'll have to worry about that - it sounds like it is going to be really awesome.

JonathanLB

Feb 7th, 2002, 03:57:19 PM

Don't worry, 12 viewings is still VERY good, you are still doing your part majorly if you see it 12 times :)

That's pretty awesome...

3 to 4 times, you are a disgrace to fandom. Haha, just kidding. But how could anyone see a film they really like, a Star Wars movie, so few times?! I will see it 4 times in the first two days alone. I just don't get how you could see a Star Wars movie 4 times or less if you're supposedly a huge fan.

I mean, don't we all wait for this for three years? I didn't wait 3 years to spend just 8 hours in theaters or 6 or whatever. I mean come on, this is a real event, I'm going to be there for at least 100 hours, probably 150.

I'm trying to beat my TPM record.

BuffJedi, way to go, hehe, see it as many times as you can :)

Darth23, I understand what you are saying. I felt the same way. It wasn't just that I said to myself, "Must go see TPM every third day." No no, I just would go about 3, 4, 5 days and I'd just really feel like seeing it again badly. It was just like something I felt I very much wanted to do and I had the time and the money, so why not? It's not like I am wasting my life away, haha, I have a lot of important stuff to do too, but I love Star Wars and I enjoy seeing the films as much as I can.

This time will only come once when AOTC is in theaters for the first time. You can't go back and redo what you may regret a decade from now when no Star Wars movies are out in theaters, none coming back soon, etc.

I don't regret seeing TPM "only" 50 times, haha, I felt like I got just the right number of viewings in and was very satisfied. I was there almost every week supporting it and enjoying myself, most important. It's just about having a fun time and to me, that was fun...

JMK

Feb 7th, 2002, 06:04:16 PM

I saw TPM 21 times, but I wouldn't consider myself any bigger of a fan than someone who saw it 4-5 times yet said they loved star wars. My brother only saw it 3 times, but I know he loves it because we both grew up with it, he just opts to spend his $$$ on weed. :D

JonathanLB

Feb 7th, 2002, 07:55:30 PM

That's pretty funny.

no, no I wasn't saying you're a bigger fan the more times you see it, just that *I* personally could not imagine only seeing a Star Wars film 3 to 4 times in theaters. I need a lot more Star Wars than that, so for me it wouldn't even be possible to IMAGINE seeing a new SW film so few times even...

BUFFJEDI

Feb 7th, 2002, 10:04:36 PM

i just wanted to say that almost half my viewings will be free (know somebody at the local theater ) and some will be at the 1.00 theater.Don't want ayone to get the idea I'm spending almost 700.00 bucks at the movies.Although I would!

Marcus Telcontar

Feb 8th, 2002, 02:42:51 AM

I was scrolling through the guess of Worldwide totals and I have to say I really think AOTC will not do over 1 billion for a few reasons

1) Only 4 other films have done that and they are not Star Wars ones
2) Star wars has a weaker following O/S than in the USA

Those two alone will restrict AOTC Intl portion of the take to 55%, the USA will be about 45%. Thence, to gain 1 billion, I belive AOTC will need to have 450 million US. I dont see that happening actually.

I would like to see what Dutchy thinks personally

Darth23

Feb 8th, 2002, 08:55:25 AM

I bet the split will be closer to 60-40 (int'l-domestic)

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 8th, 2002, 11:30:35 AM

I think it can make 450 but that is just my opinion and I agree with Darth I think it will be closer to 60-40 but I guess we will have to wait and see.

JMK

Feb 8th, 2002, 02:29:54 PM

I think it will have to be awfully good to make it to 450M. But if course te sky is the limit with a SW movie.

Dutchy

Feb 9th, 2002, 03:57:07 PM

Opening Day: $25M
Fri - Sun - $75M
Thurs - Sun $100M
Total Domestic: $350M
Total Worldwide: $800M

JonathanLB

Feb 9th, 2002, 07:09:38 PM

Don't think Dutchy will be right this time -- those estimates are simply way too low. Opening day $25 million? You know for a fact that is going to be way off unless the movie has less theaters than TPM by a good deal. My guess is it'll have a few more, so 3,000. In that many theaters, on opening day, it can still sell about as many tickets as TPM or more and the ticket price inflation will be plenty to push it to a new record. You just saw Harry Potter do that. You know HP isn't more popular than Star Wars, so it's dumb to predict anything that low.

Furthermore, HP is at like $300+ million at the box office, so to say that even after the summer ticket price increase, AOTC will only make $40-45 million more or whatever is very suspect. It just will not happen that way.

"1) Only 4 other films have done that and they are not Star Wars ones"

Not true. No other film has made $1 billion worldwide. Only Titanic has made over that amount. JP and TPM came close.

I think overseas box offices have increased a lot in three years and that's why I said $1.2 billion worldwide. It could be only $1.1 billion, but I'm still thinking my $1.2 is in line with my $510 million U.S prediction because as was stated, in most countries outside of the U.K., U.S., Australia, and Japan, Star Wars is just a major blockbuster franchise, not at the truly phenomenal levels of these four countries...

Marcus Telcontar

Feb 9th, 2002, 10:09:01 PM

1) Only 4 other films have done that and they are not Star Wars ones

Apologies, there was a bit missing from there. It SHOULD have read "Only four other moives have gone past 500 million Intl and they are not Star Wars ones"

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 9th, 2002, 10:54:39 PM

But all four have come out in the last 10 years, (I am guessing the 4 to be JP, ID4, Titantic, HP, LOTR should be next right) JP was the first to do it, so I wouldn't hold it against the first 3 SW movies to not have accomplished that feat. Really then why did ID4 do it it is bascially a SW ripoff in some ways. I think AOTC will make 500, if no other reason than inflation.

JonathanLB

Feb 10th, 2002, 01:16:32 AM

TPM came very close to $500 million internationally. A literal stone's throw away.

I think many people are going to consider AOTC "a better movie," even though I think TPM rocked and is unbeatable (but AOTC could tie and become my new "favorite"), there are going to be a lot of people who maybe will be more satisfied this time.

I am really keeping away from spoilers and away from knowing hardly anything at all, but man, when I just read that question on the StarWars.com a few days ago, I got totally stoked and more convinced that MAYBE AOTC does have a chance to become my new favorite Star Wars movie. The question asked if there is going to be pod racing in Episode II. Answer: YES! I love podracing, absolutely the coolest sequence I have ever seen, just absolutely stunning. It is amazing, there really is nothing like that in film or of course in real life, so I cannot wait to see even more pod racing in AOTC then. Not to mention so far the visuals just look totally awesome and the movie supposedly has more of Coruscant too, my favorite planet.

All they'd have to do is have a dogfight through Coruscant and I'd be like, "Ok that's my new favorite film," haha, j/k. But I think there is sort of like a chase through Coruscant as we see in the trailer, so it seems like AOTC is totally set to be just one heck of an awesome movie. I like Hayden too, he seems like a really good actor and he looks like a great Anakin. I like him because he's not one of those wussy Justin Timberlake clones or something, but he's a more thoughtful and unknown actor. Good thing they didn't pick Freddie Prinze Jr., hahaha, oh man I'd shoot myself.

I thought Jake did a great job as Anakin and his youthful exhuberance was totally perfect. Everything about his performance was good, including the fact that he DID act like a kid, not an adult. I much prefer to see a kid act like a kid because that's what you should expect, I didn't want to see him acting all stilted and serious. Haley Joel Osment is great, but he's just freaky in The Sixth Sense. If he acted like that in TPM, he would have ruined the entire character. It would be hard to care as much about a boy who seemed so weird and different, instead of just a normal, anxious little mopheaded kid.

I expect the acting in AOTC to be quite excellent and I am sure I won't be disappointed. Natalie Portman, Ewan Macgregor, and Hayden Christensen are all acclaimed young stars.

Dutchy

Feb 10th, 2002, 05:31:42 AM

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Don't think Dutchy will be right this time

But, boy oh boy, was he right last time, wasn't he? :)

Opening day $25 million? You know for a fact that is going to be way off unless the movie has less theaters than TPM by a good deal.

Yep, and that's what I'm thinking. I do think it could go up to $30M, but then I'm still not WAY off.

Furthermore, HP is at like $300+ million at the box office, so to say that even after the summer ticket price increase, AOTC will only make $40-45 million more or whatever is very suspect. It just will not happen that way.

I just don't see it topping TPM. Besides that, how many movies do you know making $500M+?

Dutchy

Feb 10th, 2002, 05:45:43 AM

Originally posted by JonathanLB
I think many people are going to consider AOTC "a better movie," even though I think TPM rocked and is unbeatable (but AOTC could tie and become my new "favorite"), there are going to be a lot of people who maybe will be more satisfied this time.

There are? But 94% of the people who saw the movie rated it "excellent" or "very good", right? :)

Master Yoghurt

Feb 10th, 2002, 08:11:51 AM

AOTC should do better than TPM because of a wider audience appeal and there will be more repeated viewers.

Will post my estimations a bit later.

Dutchy

Feb 10th, 2002, 11:04:46 AM

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
AOTC should do better than TPM because of a wider audience appeal

Why? I think it'll have the same appeal, but since it will miss the anticipation TPM had it'll do less.

and there will be more repeated viewers.

I'd say TPM had great repeat business and I don't see why AOTC should have better.

Darth23

Feb 10th, 2002, 11:49:48 AM

Becasue no 9 year old characters = less backlash.

:D

JonathanLB

Feb 10th, 2002, 12:16:56 PM

You were not "way right" last time or anything, LOL, not at all.

You will not be right this time at all, your estimates will be far off and you will be admitting you are wrong in seven months. Mark my words.

"There are? But 94% of the people who saw the movie rated it "excellent" or "very good", right?"

Yes, 94% is correct. It could be even higher this time, hard to say. TPM got an A- from CinemaScore, AOTC could score an A or A+, hard to say...

Not that A- is a bad rating because such a varied group of people saw the film that it's hard to get any higher ratings when people from every group are seeing it.

Matrix got an A- too and is far better than most every movie to score an A or A+ with CinemaScore. Sometimes it just works out that way. Plus, those polls are only so accurate, they can be off a bit in some cases. A C+ movie could be a B- movie if they had polled every person who had seen the film instead of just on opening night. Tough to say.

I'll tell you one thing, though, $350 million... a little low for a prediction if you ask me.

Dutchy

Feb 10th, 2002, 02:08:39 PM

Originally posted by JonathanLB
You were not "way right" last time or anything, LOL, not at all.

Can you name anyone who was more right than me? At least it wasn't you with your 1 billion domestic guess. :)

You will not be right this time at all, your estimates will be far off and you will be admitting you are wrong in seven months. Mark my words.

Done. :)

Yes, 94% is correct.

Yeah, but who cares? Sorry for not adding a sarcasm-smiley. :)

Anyway, it was good to read you finally are willing to see that some people maybe were disappointed with TPM.

I'll tell you one thing, though, $350 million... a little low for a prediction if you ask me.

I'll tell you one thing too: $510M is a little high for a prediction. You will be admitting you are wrong in seven months. Mark my words. :)

Master Yoghurt

Feb 10th, 2002, 02:22:09 PM

Originally posted by Dutchy

Why? I think it'll have the same appeal, but since it will miss the anticipation TPM had it'll do less.

I'd say TPM had great repeat business and I don't see why AOTC should have better.

You are right about the anticipation, which is slightly in disfavor of AOTC. However, this should not be by much, because it is going to be a "must see" event among most of the movie aware public. The big difference is in how well the movie will be received by the critics and the general movie going audience. Poor reviews and word of mouth caused TPM to stagnate, and judging by what I have seen, this one should be a whole deal better. This makes me think it will have a slower start than TPM, but longer legs, which ultimately is the most important thing.

Regarding the wide appeal; a more mature screenplay and cast is going to draw in the older agegroups into the theaters, in addition to the younger audience who is going to see it anyway. Some of the annoyances which put people off in the first episode should be replaced with segments which is going to be a lot more popular. The story is more versatile now, including a romance, a more intricate drama and a darker setting. There are also some spectacular action shots spread evenly through the whole movie, giving the viewer a heart pounding race from the beginning to the end, rather than the two climaxes offered by episode one.

Then there are the repeated viewings, which is dependant on how well the viewers liked the movie. A lot of people were disappointed in TPM, and assuming AOTC will be better liked, it should encourage more repeated viewings.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 10th, 2002, 02:48:25 PM

There is also the possibilty that Christiansen might become a huge sex symbol and that could draw in some girls gaga over him, I'm not sure if it will but it is possible. Another thing to consider is competition. The early part of the summer looks weak to me, you got Spiderman but it will died out by the time AOTC comes out, (I am guessing it will make 70+ in the first weekend but only end up doing between 200-240) there is nothing that really comes out in between that and AOTC, the weekend after there is only some JLO movie that will probably stink and some animated Dreamworks movie about horses (doesn't look like no shrek), the weekend after that is Sum of All Fears with Ben Affleck taking Ford's place as Jack Ryan, I am think that movie is going to fail, one because Affleck can't take Ford's place and two it deals with a nuclear bomb blowing up at the Super Bowl, I think people might not want to see stuff like that right, now especially in the summer time. After that I am not sure, I think the first movie that will push it is K-19 with Harrison Ford and Liam Neeson, I think it comes out the First week of June, the only other interesting film is Minority Report but that comes out close to the 4 (I'm not going to mention that piece of garbage Scooby Doo) by then though AOTC should have made a lot of money.

Dutchy

Feb 10th, 2002, 03:41:05 PM

Originally posted by Master Yoghurt
The big difference is in how well the movie will be received by the critics and the general movie going audience. Poor reviews and word of mouth caused TPM to stagnate

TPM didn't stagnate at all, it had great staying power.

and judging by what I have seen, this one should be a whole deal better. This makes me think it will have a slower start than TPM, but longer legs, which ultimately is the most important thing.

Exactly, but I think AOTC will be received in about the same way that TPM was, hence my lower than TPM prediction.

Marcus Telcontar

Feb 10th, 2002, 05:19:08 PM

I think there will be two things to watch out for with AOTC

1) Lowered expectations.

I really doubt anyone outside of Star Wars forums is expecting something great. The general perception I think the public has is TPM is flawed. There wont be quite the excitement this time either, thence I doubt it will open to a huge record.

2) The Lord of the Rings factor

Okay, this may seem silly, but hear me out. I believe that the general movie going public in the end were dissappointed and TPM in general did not live up to what people had in mind for a Star Wars movie. Now, two movie in particular have come out that were just or even more anticpated, Harry Potter and Lord of The Rings. Harry Potter was up to expectations and quite good. And it did well at the Box office, especially International - fact is, International it was extraordinarily huge. Then you had Lord of the Rings..... if you had seriously told me that movie would be that outrageously excellent 6 months ago, I would have laughed, cause there was no way it could be done. I am so glad that is wrong, we have something extraordinary to drool over. It would have done so much better if it wasn't so painful to sit through cause of it's length! 3 hours is one hell of a long time to be watching a movie, even one as great as this.

Any, what 's the point? Well, the point is, AOTC will be compared, rightly or wrongly to Potter and LOTR. With the last, it's got a difficult problem. Mark it down, the reviewers WILL compare, the movie going public will compare. And if it gets compared badly, then watch the knives come out this time. Yes, SW fans will watch it again and again, but the general public wont - and there are more general public than rabid SW fans. To make $400 million you have to appeal to an awful lot of peope and get an awful lot of repeat viewings.

Hope that was understandable :)

Darth23

Feb 10th, 2002, 06:28:36 PM

My general experience has been that Star Wars 'fans' don't like TPM as much as casual veiwers.

Reviews aren't realy going to effect the movie - word of mouth will, just like with TPM and those movies with less staying power (HP and FOTR).

Like Dutchy said - TPM had great staying power - so it had good word of mouth from SOME people. It's biggest weekend drop was 43% and that was after July 4th weekend. Last summer we routinely saw 50% drops after regular weekends.

TPM weekend drops through Mememorial Day weekend (Day 110)

5/28 -20.69%
6/4 -36.01%
6/11 -22.07%
6/18 -26.43%
6/25 -25.17%
7/2 -5.81%
7/9 -43.64%
7/16 -24.61%
7/23 -25.68%
7/30 -18.50%
8/6 -35.01%
8/13 -31.69%
8/20 -19.57%
8/27 -25.48%
9/3 +68.62%

----------

Overall I think any Star Wars movie will draw huge numbers - most of the people who see Star Wars aren't the hard core fans who eat and drink Star Wars constantly - they just like seeing the movies on the big screen and I think thay'll be back in big numbers.

JonathanLB

Feb 10th, 2002, 06:38:40 PM

"Can you name anyone who was more right than me? At least it wasn't you with your 1 billion domestic guess."

LOL! Nobody here ever said that. $1 billion in the U.S.?! Yeah right! Nobody said that except some fools on a Yahoo! poll.

I thought TPM could make about $700 million, but that was just judging by the fact that if Titanic sucked so hard for a major film (which it did) and TPM was so good (which it was), surely the better movie would win. Of course, I forgot that life is not that fair. The lesser man often wins (like the Patriots for instance), the lesser movie often makes more (Titanic).

$510 million is optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised if I was off by about $50 million, but I still think AOTC will do $450 to $460 million. I'm just trying to be optimistic because it doesn't hurt to predict high -- they are just predictions :)

(ok let me just write it now for you because your responses are so predictable, "It doesn't hurt to predict a little low -- they are just predictions." Yes, I know you Dutchy, that's what you were thinking).

I think anything short of $400 million is not a very reasonable prediction, even though $375 million is within my range. To say that AOTC won't hit $400M, it's just absurd really.

I don't care what it makes because it's still going to be one of the five best movies of all time (six when Episode III is out), but it would be nice to see it do very, very well, yes.

---

LOTR was not even close to as good as TPM and AOTC will be far better than LOTR too so I don't think that's a legitimate point at all. Harry Potter was crap. Crap, can you say crap? Nobody thought that was a quality movie. It's probably the worst film ever to crack the top twenty highest grossing films. Well, I suppose ID4 is no masterpiece either and The Lion King really sucks, but Titanic is a far better film than Potter. FAR better, directed by a master, at least, not a hack like with Potter.

Although Lord of the Rings, the first film, was visually stunning, it is nothing like ANH, ESB, ROTJ, TPM, or AOTC, which we already know is an incredible film visually.

Dutchy

Feb 10th, 2002, 07:10:21 PM

Originally posted by JonathanLB
LOL! Nobody here ever said that. $1 billion in the U.S.?! Yeah right! Nobody said that except some fools on a Yahoo! poll.

Bad memory, huh? You want me to look it up for you? If the stuff's still up, that is. :)

even though $375 million is within my range. To say that AOTC won't hit $400M, it's just absurd really.

$375M is within your range, but anything below $400M is absurd? How's that?

I don't care what it makes because it's still going to be one of the five best movies of all time (six when Episode III is out), but it would be nice to see it do very, very well, yes.

So you DO care then, exactly. :)

Champion of the Force

Feb 10th, 2002, 07:26:27 PM

LOTR was not even close to as good as TPM and AOTC will be far better than LOTR too so I don't think that's a legitimate point at all.
Your opinion. I personally enjoyed FOTR much more than TPM (not that TPM was bad - I liked it too). :)

I think Marcus is right though in regards to all the comparing - AOTC will be compared directly to LOTR and HP since it's the blockbuster area those films have occupied recently.

JMK

Feb 10th, 2002, 09:10:26 PM

That's just what I was thinking, about the comparisons that is. I think the general public (as malleable as their minds are) see LOTR as the new benchmark in "fantasy/sci-fi" and AOTC will have to "live up" to it for it to be well received by said mentioned pubic.

BUFFJEDI

Feb 10th, 2002, 09:17:28 PM

Instead of Marcus,Jon,and Dutchy fussing about it (all be it a friendly fuss) I think they should just place a big ole bet on AOTC numbers.Something way out there bet:D . I just like things like that:)

JonathanLB

Feb 10th, 2002, 09:41:19 PM

Does anyone here have a PayPal account? I'd make a friendly wager if you give me odds.

I want 5-1 against AOTC making $500 million. I'll bet $10. If you win, you get my $10, if I win, I get $50. Especially since you, Dutchy, seem to think that $500 million is so out of the question, this is a free $10 for you basically. I admit it's definitely not an odds on bet saying AOTC will be the first movie ever to make $500 million (and not make over $600 million like Titanic). So, I think odds against it are 5-1 or worse according to many box office analysts perhaps. But I'd be willing to bet on the underdog (Barkley made $750,000 betting on the Patriots I hear).

"Bad memory, huh?"

Nope, an excellent memory. Not all that far off photographic, really. I can recite to you the exact grades I attained in every single high school class I took, the finals grade I got, my final percentage grade in most classes accurate to one decimal point, and just about anything else too. My memory is excellent, thus my grades have also been excellent. The two definitely go hand in hand.

I never said anything about TPM making $1 billion. I did say it would crush Titanic. I probably even said it would make like $2 billion worldwide, but I never said it would make $1 billion in the U.S. I laughed at that poll on Yahoo! where people actually voted "MORE THAN ONE BILLION!" That was absurd. I have never, ever said anything like that -- it is YOU who has an awful memory and is trying to put words into my mouth that I never said.

I may have even thought $800 million was possible, but come on, $1 billion?! That's absurd.

Plus, I'm a box office expert now (as are a lot of us here, Darth23 is certainly an expert and so are most of you), so as such my predictions in the future are much more likely to be correct. I was 16 when TPM came out, but 15 when I made most of my projections and I hadn't followed the box office except to know what was big, what wasn't. I didn't know what good staying power was, what a good percentage of the total for opening weekend was, etc.

If I were going head to head with you for a "closest to" prediction, I'd simply pick $425 million for AOTC because I know it'll cross $400M and your pick is low enough so that even if it just barely did, I'd still win the bet. But all things being even, I'd put AOTC at $470 million. My guess is more optimistic because I want to hope for the more optimistic outcome. I believe AOTC can top $500 million, but the actual odds against that will be great. Even making $300 million is relatively difficult, well, for most movies.

Do remember that TPM crossed $300M in 28 days and that was after an opening that many people called "disappointing." AOTC's opening will be much bigger, in *fact*, and it will be able to cross $300M quicker.

Why do I know so surely that AOTC is going to beat TPM's opening day take? Gee let's see here -- could it be because when TPM opened theaters were totally crammed and normal audiences stayed away, even some fans missed out on getting to see it? Duh. You don't understand Star Wars that well, Dutchy, which has always been apparent. You're practically the anti-Christ as far as Star Wars fandom is concerned, lol, and that is not meant as an insult but an observation that you are one of the few people who dwells on hanging out in Star Wars forums despite not liking Star Wars. Even the TPM bashers love the first two Star Wars films (rarely the first three), so they are a *little* more justified in being there, albeit not much.

If TPM had opened in 3,600 theaters and had even more screens, it would have probably made about $38 million opening day, but fact is, it didn't have enough screens, enough seats, or enough theaters to do that well. People started lining up for AOTC much earlier even than TPM. The anticipation is still there, but this time, it's not going to be overdone like I think it was last time. I personally very much enjoyed the Star Wars exposure and couldn't get enough of it, so for me TPM's coverage was perfect, although I think it should have been even more "in your face"! But still, the general public is not THAT into Star Wars, not like us SW fans are, so they were bombarded with it to the point of being probably a little annoyed with what they saw as excessive promotion and coverage, even without much advertising on Fox's part. That being said, Episode II looks much more low key so far and I'm liking how the hype is not really there. This gives the film a chance to be like an LOTR, which was a very anticipated film but not one that took over the world as far as media coverage before it opened. LOTR wasn't on every magazine cover in the entire nation months before its release and it wasn't considered THE most important thing of 2001, which is a good thing. Nor was Titanic and it enjoyed massive success. This all works in AOTC's favor. The most hyped films have all been bombs except for TPM, which makes it one impressive film indeed. Godzilla, The Lost World, those movies did not work well at all after their massive hype.

As Darth23 said, there are tons of Star Wars fans and people in general who just enjoy seeing the movies and will want to show up for this one. If Lucasfilm and Fox play their cards right, they'll be advertising the love story aspect heavily to women's audiences and really looking to get that segment of the audience more involved this time. TPM did well to draw 41% females opening weekend, but AOTC could edge it out and get like 43% or so which would really help I believe. The guys will still all be there because they know Star Wars is Star Wars, it won't get too mushy on them or anything. It was harder advertising TPM to the women and girls because there really is not any love story aspect of all (making it an even better film -- low mush factor, lol), but the "hot" actors also help I suppose. When you have Hayden Christensen AND Ewan McGregor, I'm telling you, if girls will show up to see Justin Timberlake they will sure as to hell go see a Star Wars film with their boyfriends to get a glimpse at those two, who are quite popular with the ladies (I'd know, I have to hear about that crap all of the time when I'm talking to some girls about Moulin Rouge or whatever and then when I mention SW, it's just, "Oh doesn't the new movie have that hot guy? Forget his name..." Ugg).

As Sherak said last time around (he is gone now, sadly), "What's our demographic?! The human race is our demographic!"

Correct. Every demographic loves Star Wars. You cannot make it to $400+ million without that being true.

Jedieb

Feb 10th, 2002, 10:22:50 PM

What to guess, what to guess... It all depends on just how much ticket prices have gone up since TPM. First of all, I think I'm going to enjoy AOTC more than I did TPM. Less Jar Jar, a better Anakin, more action, a villian that gets adequate screen time, more Jedi council members, and MORE YODA!. I think those that were a bit dissapointed by TPM and those that hated it, of which I'm NOT one, will like this movie more. But we're not the ones who push a movie into the $400M-$600M range, the general public is. So how are THEY going to react? I think AOTC will sell fewer tickets than TPM, but it could make more money because of inflation. I'm guessing we're looking at 80-85M tickets. So I'm picking a number between $415M-$490M. I don't think we'll see the $500M barrier broken, and certainly not the $600M. Anyway, here are my "official" guesses:

Opening Day 32.5M
Opening Weekend 84.5M
Thursday-Sunday 130M
Total Gross 445M
World Wide 925M

Darth23

Feb 10th, 2002, 10:26:23 PM

Despite the fact that the quality of a movie and it's box office gross aren't really directly correlated, I think a lot of us here are predicting based on our opinions of the quality of TPM, or our expectation of the quality of AOTC. (I'm sure I am, a bit).

Critics liked HP - it's going to top our at around 320 million in the US. critics REALLY loved FOTR, it probably won't make it to 300 million - even with large numbers loving then and being followers of the franchise, they both made about 75% of what TPM made.

(Interestingly, both TPM AND FOTR have a Cinema Score of A-, Harry Potter has a solid A. :p)

And FOTR came out in the same time frame as Titanic, so we know that time of year can POTENTIALLY produce the biggest film ever.

Anyway critical opinions can influence a movies total gross, but less so with 'action adventure' movies. Star Wars has a large family appeal, kid appeal, I think AOTC will have a bigger teen appeal, because of the ages of the main characters, Jon mentioned the gender thing - I don't expect the love story to be a major element - I think it will be more prominent that in ESB, but it's still aStar Wars movie. Judging from the Vanity Fair cover, they are already consciously promoting that aspect of the movie.

There will be some 'TPM haters' who won't go see the movie - at least not right away. There might even be some Star Wars fan critics who finally decide NOT to see a Star Wars movie they don't like over and over again. But overall Star Wars movies are pretty re-watchable, and with an increase in ticket prices, as I mentioned in an earlier post , more theaters, less of a Hype induced backlash (because of less Hype), a four day opening weekend and two major movie going holidays withing the first 6 weeks, AOTC will, I think at least perform as well as TPM.

Jedieb

Feb 10th, 2002, 10:49:17 PM

If you're guessing that AOTC will perform as well as TPM then your guess of $477 is too low. If it sells about the same number of tickets then we're looking at a B.O. of at least $500M. Ticket prices will be close to if not above the $5.50 mark. That puts 90M tickets sales at around $500M. I think that more than a few casual movie goers will stay away because they'll say; "I saw that last SW movie a couple of years ago, been there, done that." I also think Spiderman may have an effect on AOTC repeat business. If it's REALLY good then it may eat away at some AOTC's repeat business. Much more than AP2 did to TPM.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 10th, 2002, 10:49:38 PM

I don't want to get into a LOTR vs SW debate thats silly, if you ask me, and nobody should be comparing the films that is silly too. Really I liked both movies equally and I will probably say the same for AOTC. (Now I thought HP was an inferior movie to both personally) Actually I think Jedieb probably is the closest at the moment, 445 sounds more realistic than Jon's 500 or Dutchy's 350 but anything is really possible. One thing I have to say I know several SW fans and some non-Sw fans who are going to see it. I know a couple of them that were disapointed in TPM but still are willing to wait in line to see AOTC, so that might tell us something. Also the hype hasn't even begun yet wait till April when you start seeing SW on more things (Action Figures, Frito-Lays, cereal boxes, etc). Then I think interest will grow in it especially with kids, my nephew can't wait to see it for example.

Marcus Telcontar

Feb 11th, 2002, 12:03:10 AM

I don't want to get into a LOTR vs SW debate thats silly, if you ask me, and nobody should be comparing the films that is silly too

Wether it's silly or not.... it's going to happne.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 11th, 2002, 01:19:08 AM

Well maybe by the media but I didn't compare HP with LOTR after, and I doubt the average movie goer will compare either one with SW maybe the geeky people but not your average person of course that is just my opinion.

Marcus Telcontar

Feb 11th, 2002, 06:33:59 AM

No, I think different. I think AOTC WILL get compared by the general public. The think I have found (and this is an example) is that some of those comaprisions have begun. In my office, the discussion a week after FOTR opened was how it compared to TPM. TPM got the big thumbs down in comparison. The trailers were compared. We are a bunch of geeks and the conclusion was FOTR was superior. Now, this is not an isolated discussion, I also saw this in vasrious places on the web. I really, really think the comparisions will happen. Sort of reminds me something I saw along the lines of this....

Before release of FOTR

SW Fan : SW GOOD!! LUCAS GOD!!! SW OWNS Lord of the Rings!!
LOTR Fan : We are hopeful... but how can anything match the books!
SW FAN : Jackson is a hack!!!
LOTR Fan : We hope he isnt too embarrassing.

After FOTR comes out

LOTR Fan : AWESOME!!! NEVER EXPECTED ANYTHING LIKE THAT!!!
SW Fan : * Embarrassed Silence*
LOTR Fan : JACKSON IS MY GOD!!!
SW Fan : *Very Embarrassed Silence *

Dont think that happens? Well, it is in my experience. And if AOTC does not come up to what people see as standard, the comparisions are going to come think and fast.

And I will add, this will happen, rightly or wrongly, fairly or unfairly.

JonathanLB

Feb 11th, 2002, 12:11:59 PM

"445 sounds more realistic than Jon's 500 or Dutchy's 350 but anything is really possible."

I agree with that assessment :)

Jedieb, Darth23, I just want to clarify an argument point that is being confused, and for good reason, IMO.

Jedieb you are under the impression, as I was, that TPM sold 90.7 million tickets. However, when ERC readjusted what was the "average ticket price" of 1999 to $5.08 or something up from $4.75, which was the average ticket price at the start of 1999, they effectively cut about 6 million tickets or something off TPM's total. I do not personally agree with their assessment; in fact, I believe TPM sold nearly 95 million tickets. I think the average ticket price for TPM was much more like $4.70 or lower than it was like $5.08. So what they did is say, "Ok, average ticket price in January 1999 was $4.75, but that applies to the year before, and the average ticket price in January 2000 was $5.08, so that applies to the year before," and they came up with $5.08 as May and June and July's ticket price average, which is pretty obviously incorrect as it was halfway through those two ticket prices that very well coult have increased during the holiday season. So they used the wrong number, but that's besides the point. We have to assume they'll do the same thing in cheating AOTC out of a few million tickets and we have to assume they probably did the same thing cheating MOST movies out of a few million tickets, depending on release dates.

Of course, none of that *actually* matters because ticket sales aren't counted, only dollars, so ERC can change whatever they want but they are doing no more than changing the "guess" of how many ticket sales are sold. As a freethinking person, I can agree or disagree with their estimates, or somewhat agree, somewhat disagree. I disagree somewhat. They also don't use a different average ticket price for each of the four film types, G, PG, PG-13, and R, so a PG movie gets shafted because naturally tickets are going to be cheaper at a Star Wars movie (more kiddie admissions).

So, if Darth is saying AOTC will equal TPM's success, he's only saying it is going to sell about 84 million tickets, which is not more than $500 million...

On another note...
I think I already said that my prediction was not what I consider to be the most likely to be accurate, I made it because I want it to be a bit out there but well within range, so that I can enjoy having called it right if AOTC performs at the higher end, or if it does not, then that's fine too because I'm sure it'll do well regardless :)

Star Wars is like Michael Jordan -- always reliable, and even when old, smarter than ever :D

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 11th, 2002, 01:21:28 PM

I have not heard those comparisons every body I know who saw both movies didn't make those comparisons and I know plenty of SW fans that were happy with TPM like I was, those that weren't IMO were expecting too much I guess 16 years is just too much time for them, I went in just expect a good time not for the greatest movie ever. I went into LOTR the same way. I do not think the general public at least here in the states will compare the two, in fact I know people who haven't seen LOTR and probably won't and there is a certain age group who won't see (5-12) and will see SW and that means there parents will have to take them and most of them probably haven't seen LOTR. That was my point the average movie goer won't. Now the obessed SW fan that waited 16 for TPM might but I don't count them because I am not sure what Lucas can do to truly satsify them because I saw very little wrong with TPM but that was my opinion.

Jedieb

Feb 11th, 2002, 03:07:09 PM

When Ernst & Young calculate average ticket prices it's fairly obvious they include special prices, seniors, children, etc. So why wouldn't they use data from the entire year to calculate the average ticket price? I've never seen that $5.08 number referred to as a December or January number, just a yearly number. If we're going to undercut that number then you either have to divide the difference by 12 or do some digging and figure out exactly when the majority of ticket price increases took place. It makes sense to me that if you're going to raise prices you'd do it in the spring and summer, not the fall and winter. Either way, you're going to get closer to $5.08 than $4.69. I think Ernst & Young took the entire year into account and not simply the month of December to arrive at $5.08.

Does anyone know if the numbers for 2001 are out yet? If we see another 6% increase for 01 and yet another for this year then we'd be looking at a $6 ticket price. $500M would be within reach with that high a price. I'd up my guess to about $480M with those numbers. In past years ticket prices have gone down, but without 2001 numbers we're just guessing.

Darth23

Feb 11th, 2002, 04:22:19 PM

Ticket prices Schmicket prices!

I predict that AOTC will perform about as well as TPM - in the same general ballpark, maybe a little better, maybe a LITTLE bit worse.

Jedieb

Feb 11th, 2002, 06:07:51 PM

Are those 1998 Schmicket prices or 2002 Schmicket prices? I need to know what to plug into my spreadsheet. :rolleyes

Darth23

Feb 11th, 2002, 06:53:00 PM

DOLLARS.

It's in D O L L A R S.

:p

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 12th, 2002, 12:19:02 AM

I disagree about spiderman (I didn't notice that you said that before) It doesn't matter if it is good or not (most people considered X-Men good and it only made about 160 million) now Spiderman will do better than X-Men but probably only 50 million or more and really it will make most of its money the first two weekends, it comes out two weeks before AOTC and by the time EP 2 comes out it should be falling maybe not as fast as POTA but falling as fast as RH2, so really I dobut it will affect AOTC really that much, really there is nothing after that is really big that should take money away from it, there are a couple of Adult action flics (Sum of All fears and Bad Company) One animated film something about a horse, a WWII film Windtalkers that has been delayed at least once and that POC next years Razzie winner Scooby Doo. None of those films look great Windtalkers looked interested but we have been hit hard by WW II films lately so it probably won't do well. Bad Company looks interesting with Anthony Hopkins and Chris Rock but its directed by our old Buddy Joel Schulamacher so I would expect anything great. Sum of All Fears I already went over, I know nothing about this horse flick and I haven't heard any buzz like with Shrek. Also all of these film are targerted to older audiences except two so really AOTC will be by on its own except for some left over buisness from Spiderman until Minority Report hits then end of June and then MIB2 on July 4 weekend.

Doc Milo

Feb 12th, 2002, 04:23:29 AM

Well, I never really make any predictions on BO numbers. I really don't "study the market" or anything to have any idea what I'm talking about. So my numbers will be wild (as opposed to educated) guesses.

Reading through this thread has given me some pause to think about that though. Inflation, quality, expectations, comparisons ... they all seem to play some role in factoring out the numbers. I have to admit, I find the comparison to HP and FotR valid arguments.

I'm a big Star Wars fan, but I do believe that FotR was a better movie than TPM. Of course, I also have misgivings about the comparisons. Both were attempting two different things. TPM to set up a sextet, FotR to set up a trilogy (thus less will be in TPM as the story is expanded out to six episodes...) Also, TPM is setting up a "tone poem" so to speak. Or, more accurately, a tone motiff, and as such, the tone was much lighter than FotR which quickly moves from the lightness of the Shire to the darkness of Mordor -- and the lands in between. They are two very different stories, and comparisons are unfair.

But, fair or unfair, right or wrong, those comparisons are going to be made. Perception oftentimes overwhelms reality -- and the casual movie-goer isn't geek enough to care about such things as metaphor and motiff, six episodes as compared to three etc...

So, I believe there will be, to a certain extent, and "LotR factor" (not so much an HP factor, as the genre for HP is noticibly different than LotR or SW (yes, all three are fantasy, but LotR and SW are more of a similar fantasy than HP was...)

Anyway, my predictions:

Opening day: 32m
Thurs-Sun: 120.5m
Total Gross: 472.5m
Range: 390m to 520m

Darth23

Feb 12th, 2002, 08:10:20 AM

"the casual movie-goer isn't geek enough "

Lousy casual movie-goer.

;)

Jedieb

Feb 12th, 2002, 09:26:34 AM

I think that Spiderman has the potential to be as big a hit as the first Batman movie. Spiderman is a much more popular character than the X-Men. Now I konw X-Men comics sell more, and have been more popular for the last couple of decades, but Spiderman is a much more recognizable and well established character. The "casual movie-goer" we've been talking about is much more apt to recognize him than X-Men characters. I wouldn't be surprised if Spiderman grossed over $200M. If it does, then some of that money would have been taken from AOTC repeat business. We'll have to wait and see just how good Spidey is and if the movie has any legs.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 12th, 2002, 09:38:52 AM

But I think it will do most of that it the first two weeks, it will probably open 70-80 and then make 45-50 in the second weekend that would put at somewhere between 120-150 after two weeks I think then it will start droping 40%-50% a weekend (much like RH 2 did and it will probably happen the second weekend if makes 80 it will probably do 45 second weekend). That is why I don't think it will take repeat buisness away because its going head on into AOTC of the clones, now it could hurt its first weekend I guess but I doubt not very much but by its second weekend Spiderman could be in the teens while AOTC is over 50 that is what I am speculating at least.

Darth23

Feb 12th, 2002, 09:47:12 AM

I have to say that Spidey looks kind [of] iffy to me. The Green Goblin looks too much like Ultima, I'm afraid Wilhem Dafoe might over do it as the bad guy (think Streets of Fire) and the idea of Spidey's webs coming out of his wrist seems just plain silly.

Everyone KNOWS that Peter Parker built his web shooters. (well maybe not EVERYONE).

Anyway I guess we'll have to see - but right now I'm prepared to be dissapointed.

If Spiderman drops 50% after the first week, with no real competiton, then it's in trouble.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 12th, 2002, 10:17:49 AM

I think it will probably drop 40-45% like RH 2 did, I am guessing it will do 250 max but more likely 215-230. The one bad thing for it is the media is hyping up almost as bad as TPM and if the critics rip it up then it will be in trouble unlike TPM which had a SW fan base which went to see it regardless. A lot of people will pass if they think its bad because its a comic book movie. Also I think Batman is a difference case because 1) Batman is the second most famous Comic book figure after Superman, 2) it had a huge actor in it (Jack Nicholson) who everybody knew and liked (I don't think Defoe is anywhere near as big) Its going to be hard to say, I want to see it but I am betting after I see it that I will still think that X-men is the best comic book film made so far.

JMK

Feb 12th, 2002, 10:28:55 AM

I also don't have my hopes up for Spider-Man. I hope it's good, but not good enough to take business away from AOTC! :D

I think if its really good, it can duplicate Rush Hour's performance and rake in just over 200M, but that's a BIG if. It will have a ton of competition after its first few weeks.

Jedieb

Feb 12th, 2002, 10:37:25 AM

I'm really excited about Spiderman. I loved the second trailer and I think they've done a great job with the cast. DeFoe can be VERY good (Platoon), but he's done some horrible stuff also (Speed 2). As long as he doesn't try to steal the movie he'll be fine. Spiderman is probably the most famous comic book character behind Superman and Batman. I'd throw the Hulk up there also. There's a movie that could be some serious CGI fun.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 12th, 2002, 10:47:04 AM

The Hulk comes out next year and it is going to be directed by Ang Lee i think it stars Eric Bana as Banner, Jennifer Connely as Betty Ross, Sam Elliott as General Thunderbolt Ross and Nick Nolte as Banner's father, (not sure how that will work). There is only one major character left, (if they are following the comic book which from the casting so far it looks like they are) The Leader, a supergenies who was affected from the radiation much like the Hulk except it made him become 10X more intelligent. I think the Hulk will be awesome and could be the biggest movie of next year. My other worry with Spiderman is it is directed by Rammi, he is not a bad director but he has directed some cheesy films so I am just worried that Spiderman will be too cheesy, I hope not at least.

JMK

Feb 12th, 2002, 02:48:27 PM

Cheesy? Like Pearl Harbor cheesy? God I hope not! I watched PH this weekend and only then did I realize how contrived and cheesy every second line and every second shot was!

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 12th, 2002, 02:57:00 PM

The Quick and the Dead comes to mind he has done a few others Army of Darkness though that is suppose to be cheesy so I won't count that one.

Darth23

Feb 12th, 2002, 10:17:59 PM

"...and Nick Nolte as Banner's father, (not sure how that will work). "

I think they changed Banner's 'Hulkiness' from being cause by agamma radiation from a test explosion of a bomb to some kind of genetic defect.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 13th, 2002, 01:52:35 PM

I saw this on another site, not sure what it means for AOTC's box office.

Fandango gears up for next Star Wars
Online box office Fandango is already gearing up for "Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones," which opens in theaters May 16. The site, which lets moviegoers purchase advance film tickets on the Web and by phone, is working with its hosting provider Loudcloud to stress test its site and plan for additional server capacity.
Fandango is talking to Twentieth Century Fox about when it can begin selling advanced tickets to the much-anticipated Star Wars sequel. It expects traffic on its site related to Star Wars to surpass the peak it hit with "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone." Fandango sold a million tickets in the three weeks prior the opening of that film.

I guess Fandango thinks its going to be a bigger draw, at least for them, then Harry Potter but they have to be ready for anything.

Jedieb

Feb 13th, 2002, 07:40:23 PM

I went to the Fandango site only to learn that none of my local theaters sell tickets on-line. I'm going to have to get them the old fashioned way, by calling in sick to work and wearing a baseball cap to hide my identity from any roving local TV cameras. ;)

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 13th, 2002, 11:24:16 PM

You could always get them a week in advance that is what I am going to do I think, when I went to get my TPM tickets there wasn't much of a line and I went two weeks in advance which probably helped.

JonathanLB

Feb 14th, 2002, 06:24:51 AM

Well that is true, AOTC will be a MUCH bigger film in advance sales than anything that has ever come out before. Then I'm guessing maybe even the next LOTR film could beat that, just because this is kind of new, people going and getting these tickets so far in advance, so like DVD sales, everything just keeps topping whatever came before.

Besides, Star Wars has ten times as many followers at least as Harry Potter. It's just a matter of how many screens AOTC has, and because it will not have anywhere near as many as HP, it will not be able to make anywhere all that close to as much in its first weekend.

HP made... umm, what was it? Like $93 million or something in three days? AOTC could do $80 million I think, but I wouldn't expect any more than that. Even that would be quite impressive and would represent much more full theaters and auditoriums than HP.

As for Spider-Man, I cannot wait! Competition or no competition, I'm going to be there probably three times in the first two weeks if it is as good as it looks. Man it looks awesome. I think it will be one of the year's best films for sure.

Also, I liked The Quick and the Dead. Much better movie than I thought it would be. I expected it to be just totally idiotic, judging by who was in it, lol, but I liked it. I also really liked Leo's The Man in the Iron Mask, even though I was prepared to hate it too, the overall cast in that film is *excellent*! So many great actors and it was actually a good Leo film, hehe.

I agree with Jedi Master Carr, and I don't see how anyone here is figuring otherwise.

Hello?!?! Did The Mummy hurt TPM? Heck no! Will Spider-Man hurt AOTC? HELL NO!

After two weekends Spider-Man will have worn itself down anyway, so by the third weekend even without AOTC it wouldn't do huge business, but with AOTC, it will get creamed because its entire target audience (i.e. everyone on earth who can get in) will be seeing AOTC. If it falls 50% from weekend 1 to 2, it will fall even worse when AOTC comes unless of course the spillover business helps Spidey, and it may...

Either way, Spider-Man is no threat. What is AOTC's first big threat?

Overall it'll have to face MIB II and Minority Report, those are two big films that come to mind, plus XXX will open very well I think (Diesel, Sam. Jackson). I know there are many more films, but not much comes to mind that opens in June actually. I hope June is pretty clear, at least by comparison to past years...

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 14th, 2002, 03:24:30 PM

June is pretty weak this year IMO, I wrote down some of the films a page back I will list them again this time I will go up to Minority Report
May 31 Sum of All Fears
Master of Disguise (some comedy staring Dana Carvey)
June 7 Bad Company (Action movie staring Chris Rock and Anthony Hopkins, I could be a good film)
Tuxedo (some Jackie Chan Flick)
June 14 Windtalkers (WW2 film that has gotten shelved a couple of times starring Nicholas Cage)
Scobby Doo (probably the worst movie of the year or second worst Rollerball might just be worst)
June 21 Lilo & Stitch (really AOTC first main competition Pixar's new animated film)
The Bourne Idenity (Matt Damon's film about Spys)
June 28 Minority Report (End of June biggie staring Tom Cruise and directed by Spielberg lets hope it doesn't have the same results as AI)
Mr Deeds (Adam Sandler's new comedy a remake of an old Capra film also staring felon Winona Ryder)
July 2 MIB 2 (Figure I end with this big film)

Realy it doesn't look that competive compared to past Junes I think its because of the strike that didn't happen and lot of films got shelved and production got started late. Realize also that Bad Company and Windtalkers were both suppose to debut last year and got pushed back for different reasons, if they hadn't there wouldn't have been anything but Scooby Doo and that Jackie Chan film those too weekends. I am not going to post all of them but July and August from the looks of it looks very competive, (AP3, K19, Signs, Stuart Little 2, XXX, Spy Kids 2, Halloween the Homecoming, not another one) Except for the new Halloween film the rest of them look like huge hits especially compared to May and June which only has Spiderman, AOTC, Lilo & Stitch and Minority Report as almost guarentees.
Scooby Doo is not a guarentee because it could stink and do a Rocky and Bullwinkle at the Box office, even Adam Sandler's new film is no guarentee, it looks better than little Nicky but Wynnoa Ryder's prescenes creates a problem and could hurt the film, maybe everthing else is no guarentee and nobody knows how people are going to react to the new actions films like Sum of All Fears and Bad Company both dealing with Terrorists (Bad Company deals with Arab terroists and in the originally script they were trying to blow up Wall Street nobody knows how much was changed) and Sum of Fears has nuclear explosion at the Super Bowl that could hurt that movie, I am not even sure I want to see it (though it is more about Affleck taking Ford's place that is a joke) The Bourne Idenity has potential but I have only seen one preview of it so I am not sure how good it will be. Windtalkers could have problems too , because it will now be the fourth WW 2 movie released in the last year and half (Enemy at the Gates, Pearl Harborn and the soon to be released Hart's War) people might not want to see another war movie its hard to say at this point. Overall, though Attack of the Clones has two weekends basically to itself and has a very weak beginning of June until Scooby Doo which even if it stinks will make 40 million (though probably drop 60% the following weekend) and thats four weekends for AOTC to get a lot of repeat buisness.

Darth23

Feb 14th, 2002, 03:35:05 PM

WInona is NOT a felon.

Yet. ;)

WHo knows, she could get off. If she gets a deal i do think it will include at least 1 felony charge - cause the stuff she had was just way too expensive.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 14th, 2002, 04:30:05 PM

Well I guess she could go and steal OJ's Dream team, but she would be smart to take a plea, otherwise she could go up for 20 years or something.

Doc Milo

Feb 14th, 2002, 04:57:16 PM

Affleck is taking Ford's place as Jack Ryan? Ugh! (I didn't realize Sum of All Fears was coming out this year!) I loved the book!

I guess it could be worse. They could try to put Alec Baldwin back as Jack Ryan (like in Hunt for Red October) -- now that was the worst! Alec Baldwin is no Jack Ryan!

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 14th, 2002, 05:10:47 PM

I'm not sure if Affleck could even pull it off, first Ryan is older still second he is no Harrison Ford. Also they changed the plot (this was before 9/11) it was suppose to be Arab terroists now it is Neo Nazis, how do Neo Nazis get a hold of a Nuke.

Champion of the Force

Feb 14th, 2002, 06:40:59 PM

Alec Baldwin is no Jack Ryan!
I actually like Baldwin as Jack Ryan. But then again I saw that film before the Ford ones so I guess it's what you're familiar with.

JonathanLB

Feb 14th, 2002, 11:56:53 PM

Actually that June lineup looks ten times better than what TPM faced. Then again, nearly every movie that TPM faced was either an utter piece of crap or it was extremely mediocre. I've never seen such a pathetic summer for movies, which was great for me because I didn't really want to see anything but TPM anyway. I ended up renting most of the major films of summer 1999 and, uh... wasn't impressed. I skipped out on stuff like Lake Placid, but that was horrible looking!

Minority Report will be HUGE, I cannot wait to see that. Still, AOTC has plenty of time until that... it won't hit that hard anyway. There's always room for Star Wars.

The Bourne Identity looks absolutely tight, I cannot wait to see that.

I'll definitely have to spend more time at the theater than ever before this summer, just to get to that magic 50 mark for AOTC (or more I hope) plus seeing the other great films that come out. DARNIT!

I didn't realize June was that full, but oh well, some of those films, while they have potential, will not pose much of a box office threat beyond $15 million openings I don't think...

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 15th, 2002, 01:13:08 AM

I don't know about that did June of 1999 have like 4 films that made 100 (The General's Daughter, AP 2, Tarzan, and Big Daddy) And Big Daddy and Ap2 were huge that year. Really most of those films other than Minority Report don't stand out. I guess its because I am not sure how audiences will react to the big two action films of that June if they fail the month is going to bad.

Darth23

Feb 15th, 2002, 01:36:14 AM

June 1999

* Notting Hill - May 28 (yeah I know it's May but it's almost June) - 116 million total

* Austin Powers - June 11 - 206 million total (including 70 million stolen from TPM's total ;))

*Tarzan - June 16 - 145 million total

*General's Daughter - June 18 - 102 million total

*Big Daddy - June 25 - 160 million total

*Wild Wild West (they always froget that one) - June 30 - 113 million

*Phantom Menace on June 1 - 212 million
*Phantom Menace on June 30 - 357 million

---------------------

Lake Placid..... lol

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 15th, 2002, 01:43:04 AM

That is a very strong june 2 movies over 150, and one very close, this June looks a lot weaker to me I doubt there will be five films over 100 maybe 3 or 4, That Disney movie should do it, Minority Report, Scooby Doo might (It will depend) and one other film probably The Bourne Identiy but I guess it all depends if audiences want to see movies about Terroirsts.

JonathanLB

Feb 15th, 2002, 07:23:30 AM

I did not necessarily say that this June will be better at the box office, I only said that June 1999 was a pitiful month with mostly lousy films and this June is looking awesome. I'm much more excited about summer 2002 than I was at summer 1999. The only reason I was obviously excited for that summer was TPM. I was not looking forward to anything else and frankly, I thought WWW looked idiotic, though I did think it would still clear $200M... guess not, haha.

The Bourne Identity may not even make $100M, maybe more like $70M, but it still looks really good...

Jedieb

Feb 15th, 2002, 01:13:33 PM

That does look like a rather craptacular June. I really liked the Scooby Doo trailer, but everything else about it looks bad. I want a Scooby movie I can take my kid to, not one I have to screen first because there might be pot jokes. With a June like that we may see BOTH Spiderman and AOTC in the top 5 for longer than usual.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 15th, 2002, 02:15:18 PM

I agree it does look rather weak probably as weak as last summer when there wasn't many if any good movies out in June, what made 100 last June I know Tomb Raider did, Doctor Doolite 2 and The Fast and Furious which made the most money that month I guess with 144, maybe Darth23 could confirm this he is the box office expert :) Now I think a couple of those films could be good like The Bourne Identity but will people see it is hard to say and I said the action films are iffy because they are about Terrorists (this is a bad time for terrorist films) Probably Bad Company has a better chance because Chris Rock and Hopkins is in but as I said it was directed by the man that ruined Batman and also has Chris Rock ever done an action film? And can he suceed in one? Hopkins isn't a problem there he is a great actor so he will be fine but he has been in some bad movies here and there and even though he is nearly brilliant in every one.
The Sum of All Fears is the movie that could be a huge failure mostly because they chose the wrong person to replace Ford, Affleck just doesn't work for me. Nothing really against him but Ford, even at 60, could kick the crap out of him. He just doesn't strike me as Jack Ryan. Then you have a nuclear Bomb exploding at the Super Bowl that my scare people away from that film (it could do the opposite I guess)
Then there is Scooby Doo, I agree with you Jedieb it doesn't look good, the rumors have it the pots jokes are gone, but they are only rumors at this point. Still I don't like the cast, the last time Prinze and Lillard was in a movie it was Wing Commander and I wouldn't even go there. Besides they threw away Myers's script so I have to wonder why and makes me think they wanted stupid jokes instead of what he wanted to do.
The other films I don't know enough about to question yet, like Lilo and Stitch it is Pixar so it could be brillaint and might be the best movie coming out that month, and then there is Minority Report which is barely in June though and my only question is Spielberg going to make another dark film like AI that the General public will not get and walk away from. it remains to be seen.

Darth23

Feb 15th, 2002, 03:39:27 PM

I don't even REMEMBER and movies from last June. :p

Plus I wasn't keeping track of the 100 million dollar movies last year.

JonathanLB

Feb 15th, 2002, 04:18:32 PM

Last June had some good films still. Tomb Raider rocks, and plus, there were a lot of other good films, but I don't remember all of what ones actually opened in that month. Swordfish right? That movie kicked ass. There were others...

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 15th, 2002, 04:32:58 PM

Man, Darth you disapoint me:) you remember movies from June of 99 better than movie from last june whats up with that:p Yeah Swordfish came out that month but I don't think it made 100 million so didn't but it too didn't make a 100, actually I am thinking June of 2000 was worst I remember Shaft coming out but I can't think of any other film that is how bad I remember that month. I remember that July had X-Men, Scary Movie, What Lies Beneath and Nutty Professor 2 all of which made over 100 can't think what movies came out in June.

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 15th, 2002, 04:56:41 PM

Okay here is what came out in June 2000 for comparrison
6/2 Big Momma's House 117,559,438
6/9 Gone in 60 Seconds 101,648,571
6/16 Shaft 70,334,258
6/23 Me and Myself and Irene 90,570,999
6/23 Chicken Run 106,834,564
6/28 The Patriot 113,330,342
6/30 The Perfect Storm 182,618,434
6/30 The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle 26,005,820

Actually 2000 was a lot better than I first though I only saw Shaft and The Patriot in theaters that year but I saw the rest of video and liked most of them, ( I didn't watch that POC Rocky and Bullwinkle) it was defintely better than this past June
here are the numers

6/1 What's the Worst That Could Happen 32,268,896
6/8 Evolution 38,345,494
6/8 Swordfish 69,772,969
6/8 Atlantis The Lost Empire 84,056,472
6/15 Tomb Raider 131,168,070
6/22 Dr. Doolittle 2 112,952,899
6/22 The Fast and the Furious 144,533,925
6/29 A.I 78,616,689

Well 5 movies made it to 100 in 2000 and one almost to 200 (Me and Myself and Irene came close), only 3 made it to 100 in 2001 and one almost to 150. Also June of 2001 had more dispointments and bombs than 2000, A. I was a dispointment in that it didn't make no where near where people though, Evolution and that POC with Lawerence and Devito both didn't make 40, also even though Tomb Raider made 130 it made 50+ in its first weekend and tanked after that. Atlantis is considered a failure to a lot of people, In 2000 really the only Bombs were Titan AE which I didn't mention and Rocky and Bullwinkle, I guess Me and Myself and Irene is small disapointment but it is kind of dark film and I thought it was funny.

Jedieb

Feb 19th, 2002, 03:50:02 PM

Hey, I think one of the mods needs to step up and post a reply with everyone's first weekend and final B.O. guesses. Slackers.;)

Here are some numbers that late comers may want to chew on.

First Releases
Year Film / . . . Gross . . . / . .Gross Adj. for Inflation (2001)
1977 ANH $210,439,000* $614,060,000
1980 ESB $198,000,000* $425,800,000
1983 ROTJ $249,608,768 $443,000,000
1999 TPM $431,088,297 $458,420,000
2002 AOTC

(I'll tell you this though, those ANH numbers could easily be MUCH higher if you consider some theaters kept playing ANH well into 78. So you could make an argument that part of ANH's 78 gross, if not all could be added to the 77 figure. I believe there was a big screen jump for the summer of 78 so it's hard to tell where ANH's first release really ended.)

JMK

Feb 19th, 2002, 05:29:55 PM

Isn't moderator the sanscrit word for slacker?;)

Jedieb

Feb 19th, 2002, 05:38:51 PM

:lol JMK

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 20th, 2002, 12:05:31 AM

LOL JMK I wouldn't know I don't know any sanscrit:rolleyes I'll see what I can do, but I wasn't sure if this was everybody's final guess we still have less than 3 months until it comes (wow :rollin ) so I am not sure if people might want to visit the issue, we can either see if this thread survives that long or we can redo in in April or something I guess we could compare to see how people's guesses changed or didn't if we kept this one running.

Jedieb

Feb 21st, 2002, 11:14:37 AM

We can always give people the opporunity to change their guesses. Set up a cutoff date like May 1st, or 10th. That would give everybody a chance to look at everybody's guesses and review all the info the thread and the board have to offer. Updating the guess list every couple of weeks or so will help keep the thread current. Just an idea. :)

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 21st, 2002, 02:39:15 PM

Ok that sounds like a good idea, I might do it tomorrow unless Darth23 would like to do it:)

JMK

Feb 21st, 2002, 03:14:20 PM

I think I can set up a page on my old website where we can place our guesses. Would anyone be up for that?

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 21st, 2002, 11:31:18 PM

I think that would work great unless anybody would want to go with a different approach.

Jedieb

Feb 22nd, 2002, 10:54:10 AM

I'm old and lazy, I want it here!!! whine whine whine.....

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 22nd, 2002, 11:02:50 AM

Well we could always do both, I'll see what I can do a little later today maybe by tonight when I have some spare time.

Doc Milo

Feb 22nd, 2002, 01:52:14 PM

Hmmmm... Jedieb resigns from being a moderator, and now he's making demands of them all! ;)

Jedieb

Feb 22nd, 2002, 02:04:16 PM

<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" border="0">

<td>
<table cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" border="1" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Poster

</td>
<td valign="Top">Opening Day

</td>
<td valign="Top">Opening Weekend

</td>
<td valign="Top">4-Day Total (Thurs.-Sun.)

</td>
<td valign="Top">Total Gross

</td>
<td valign="Top">World Wide

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Jedieb

</td>
<td valign="Top">$32.5M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$84.5M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$118.5M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$469.9

</td>
<td valign="Top">$991.5M

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Darth23

</td>
<td valign="Top">$31.23M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$85.93M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$117.21M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$477M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$1.07B

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">JMK

</td>
<td valign="Top">$30.47M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$99.56M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$124.92M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$462M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$1.11B

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">JMC

</td>
<td valign="Top">$31.98M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$88.45M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$120.43

</td>
<td valign="Top">$464

</td>
<td valign="Top">$1.12B

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Marcus Q'Dunn

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">$404.0M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$950M

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Champion of the Force

</td>
<td valign="Top">$28M

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">$400M

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Darth McBain

</td>
<td valign="Top">$30.5M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$105.3

</td>
<td valign="Top">$135.8M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$490M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$1.15B

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">JonathanLB

</td>
<td valign="Top">$35M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$80M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$115

</td>
<td valign="Top">$510M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$1.25B

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Buff

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">$550M

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Dutchy

</td>
<td valign="Top">$25M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$75M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$100M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$350M

</td>
<td valign="Top">$800M

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">Doc Milo

</td>
<td valign="Top">$32M

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">$120.5

</td>
<td valign="Top">$472.5

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
<td valign="Top">

</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 22nd, 2002, 02:08:17 PM

Hey you beat me too, oh by the way I don't think Marcus is going to be too happy with you:p and do you know your spreadsheet cut off all the first D's?

Jedieb

Feb 22nd, 2002, 02:08:50 PM

If a mod can fix that table of mine I'd appreciate it. I don't know why there's all that empty space above it. See Doc, this is why I resigned. I can't handle tables. ;)

Jedieb

Feb 22nd, 2002, 02:11:20 PM

That took me forever and a day. I tried the enhanced mode, but then I could never get it to load right. If you can add Marcus and fix all the D's I'd appreciate. Hopefully, you can use that table as a starting point and just edit it whenever you need to. :)

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 22nd, 2002, 02:25:15 PM

Well I added Marcus that way he won't get mad you calling by the wrong name :p I can't figure out what is wrong with the D's, or the huge space I am not too good with programing code. Hey Champion or JMK if either one of you are around I could use your help.

Master Yoghurt

Feb 22nd, 2002, 04:50:43 PM

http://www.thegjo.com/BO/AOTC.htm

:)

JMK

Feb 22nd, 2002, 07:14:17 PM

Well done Yog! I was thinking that if I was going to make the site, I would put the link in my signature, but since you made the link, maybe you could if you wanted so well can all access it. If you don't want to, I could add it to mine. :)

JMK

Feb 22nd, 2002, 07:26:27 PM

Sorry lads. I tried to fix Jedieb's table and I just don't know what's wrong with it. Maybe something is conflicting with VBulletin's coding or something. I copy/pasted it in dreamweaver and it's fine. :(

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 22nd, 2002, 07:57:45 PM

Well you tried JMK that is all we can ask, at least Yog made that spiffy site that looks very cool.

Master Yoghurt

Feb 22nd, 2002, 09:36:11 PM

I added my own prediction. Lets see if this works..

<table border="1" cellpadding="2" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"><tr><td>Poster</td><td>Opening Day</td><td>Opening Weekend</td><td>4-Day total (Thurs-Sun)</td><td>Total US</td><td>World Wide</td></tr><tr><td>Ravishing Jedi</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$550M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr><tr><td>Jonathan LB</td><td>$35M</td><td>$80M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$510M</td><td>$1.25B</td></tr><tr><td>Super Wookie</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$500M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td> Darth McBain</td><td>$30.5M</td><td>$105.3</td><td>$135.8M</td><td>$490M</td><td>$1.15B</td></tr><tr><td> Darth23</td><td>$31.23M</td><td>$85.93M</td><td>$117.21M</td><td>$477M</td><td>$1.07B</td></tr><tr><td> Doc Milo</td><td>$32M</td><td></td><td>$120.5M</td><td>$472.5M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Jedieb</td><td>$32.5M</td><td>$84.5M</td><td>$118.5M</td><td>$469.9M</td><td>$991.5B</td></tr><tr><td>JMC</td><td>$31.98M</td><td>$88.45M</td><td>$120.43M</td><td>$464M</td><td>$1.12B</td></tr><tr><td>JMK</td><td>$30.47M</td><td>$99.56M</td><td>$124.92M</td><td>$462M</td><td>$1.11B</td></tr><tr><td>Master Yoghurt</td><td>$29.9M</td><td>$82.9M</td><td>$112.8M</td><td>$441M</td><td>$1.01B</td></tr><tr><td>Helenias Q'Dunn</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$404.0M</td><td>$950M</td></tr><tr><td>Admiral Lebron</td><td>$39M</td><td></td><td>$85M</td><td>$400M</td><td>$850M</td></tr><tr><td>Champion of the Force</td><td>$28M</td><td></td><td></td><td>$400M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Flagg</td><td>$30M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$105M</td><td>$360M</td><td>$960M</td></tr><tr><td> Dutchy</td><td>$25M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$100M</td><td>$350M</td><td>$800M</td></tr></table>

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 22nd, 2002, 10:07:57 PM

That looks good I guess Thanks Master Yoghurt Jedieb's version must just have conflicted with vbulletin, but at least we got aone on here so I guess that means Jedieb will stop whinning:p

Jedieb

Feb 22nd, 2002, 10:20:32 PM

waaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!! ;)

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 22nd, 2002, 10:24:22 PM

:lol Thanks I deserved that:p

Jedieb

Feb 24th, 2002, 01:31:34 PM

Nice job on the chart Yog. I meant to praise you earlier but that avatar of yours keeps giving me killer headaches. Must..... avert..... eyes......

Jedi Master Carr

Feb 24th, 2002, 05:50:36 PM

I think we all be glad when it is gone:p

Jedieb

Apr 9th, 2002, 05:52:29 PM

We've had a few newbies and some old timers return so I thought it would be a good time to bring this old thread to the top so we could get a few more "official" predictions.

Marcus Telcontar

Apr 9th, 2002, 06:04:26 PM

was I being called DT again? Who IS this DT person you keep referring to?

Edit : Ah, I see the confusion now. Fix the table Yog! Wrong Q'Dunn! Sheesh, can't you guys tell Helenias and myself apart? Helenias is the one who looks good in high heels and a short skirt!

Admiral Lebron

Apr 9th, 2002, 06:23:59 PM

Saw this topic and felt I would post my predictions.

Opening Day: 39 Mil
Through Sunday: 85 Mil
Total US: 400 Mil
Worldwide: 850 Mil

Jedieb

Apr 10th, 2002, 01:24:11 PM

Now all you need is for a lazy mod to update that table. Get to work CMJ!! ;)

Super Wookiee

Apr 11th, 2002, 01:21:26 PM

USA: 500 million

I have no idea about WW gross ect...

flagg

Apr 13th, 2002, 05:19:22 PM

Opening day: $30 million
3 day weekend: $75 million
4 day weekend: $105 million
U.S. Total: $360 million
Worldwide: $960 million

BUFFJEDI

Apr 13th, 2002, 07:17:43 PM

I never gave my wwg. 1,500,000,000.I really think more but I'll stay with that.
I would also like to say that i really feel it will do more than 550 mil usa/can. but i'll keep 550 mil.

Master Yoghurt

Apr 16th, 2002, 06:35:04 AM

<table border="1" cellpadding="2" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"><tr><td>Poster</td><td>Opening Day</td><td>Opening Weekend</td><td>4-Day total (Thurs-Sun)</td><td>Total US</td><td>World Wide</td></tr><tr><td>Ravishing Jedi</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$550M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr><tr><td>Jonathan LB</td><td>$35M</td><td>$80M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$510M</td><td>$1.25B</td></tr><tr><td>Super Wookie</td><td>$40M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$139M</td><td>$500M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr><tr><td> Darth McBain</td><td>$30.5M</td><td>$105.3</td><td>$135.8M</td><td>$490M</td><td>$1.15B</td></tr><tr><td> Darth23</td><td>$31.23M</td><td>$85.93M</td><td>$117.21M</td><td>$477M</td><td>$1.07B</td></tr><tr><td> Doc Milo</td><td>$32M</td><td></td><td>$120.5M</td><td>$472.5M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Jedieb</td><td>$32.5M</td><td>$84.5M</td><td>$118.5M</td><td>$469.9M</td><td>$991.5B</td></tr><tr><td>JMC</td><td>$31.98M</td><td>$88.45M</td><td>$120.43M</td><td>$464M</td><td>$1.12B</td></tr><tr><td>JMK</td><td>$30.47M</td><td>$99.56M</td><td>$124.92M</td><td>$462M</td><td>$1.11B</td></tr><tr><td>Master Yoghurt</td><td>$29.9M</td><td>$82.9M</td><td>$112.8M</td><td>$441M</td><td>$1.01B</td></tr><tr><tr><td>QuiGonJ</td><td>$32M</td><td>$64M</td><td>$96M</td><td>$440M</td><td>$940M</td></tr><tr>
<td>Helenias Q'Dunn</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$404.0M</td><td>$950M</td></tr><tr><td>Admiral Lebron</td><td>$39M</td><td></td><td>$85M</td><td>$400M</td><td>$850M</td></tr><tr><td>Champion of the Force</td><td>$28M</td><td></td><td></td><td>$400M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Flagg</td><td>$30M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$105M</td><td>$360M</td><td>$960M</td></tr><tr><td> Dutchy</td><td>$25M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$100M</td><td>$350M</td><td>$800M</td></tr></table>

Master Yoghurt

Apr 16th, 2002, 06:48:09 AM

Originally posted by Marcus Q'Dunn
was I being called DT again? Who IS this DT person you keep referring to?

Edit : Ah, I see the confusion now. Fix the table Yog! Wrong Q'Dunn! Sheesh, can't you guys tell Helenias and myself apart? Helenias is the one who looks good in high heels and a short skirt! :lol

It was not my fault. I just copied everything from Jedieb. Blame him! :p

Helenias Evenstar

Apr 16th, 2002, 07:08:03 AM

The thought of Marcus in high heels and a skirt put me off my dinner

JonathanLB

Apr 16th, 2002, 05:51:34 PM

Hey I have a question.

When we know the exact theater totals, like a few days before release, may we change our estimates? I definitely intend to make a more accurate estimate after I know how many theaters and screens the film has... Otherwise, it's just a total shot in the dark.

If somehow it opens in 3,500 theaters, I'd obviously change my prediction to $100 million in 3 days, $140 million in 4 days. I mean, if it has as many theaters as Harry Potter or even close to as many, it will blow that idiotic kiddie film to kingdome come. My estimate was based on 3,000 theaters (give or take 100) with midnight showings at 900 of them, give or take 100.

"Opening Day: 39 Mil
Through Sunday: 85 Mil"

LOL. Wait I think you meant $39 million Thursday, then $85 million more on the weekend, right? Like $124 million total?

Because otherwise, that doesn't make sense. It would be impossible for that to happen.

That would be $39 million on Thursday, then $46 million for THREE days of the weekend, which is like $15 million per day. That wouldn't exactly make any sense at all, not with a $39 million first day.

Ok so who here is going to predict how many weekends AOTC stays on top as #1?

I'm thinking four weekends, competition seems to be much later in the summer this time around with Minority Report, MIB2, Austin Powers 3, and a lot of the other major stuff coming out later. AOTC actually has a solid 6 weeks to do whatever it wants without any real competition. The competition is sparse, at best. The Bourne Identity looks good, Insomnia looks pretty iffy, doesn't seem to me it will be able to do much damage, Stallion: Spirit of the Cimmaron or whatever looks kind of silly but I like the music they play in the trailer. I don't think kids will want to see that when there is a Star Wars movie out, though, sorry DreamWorks. Bad move. Almost as bad as opening The Love Letter against TPM. I thought they learned their lesson from that, but apparently not.

So is the Memorial Day weekend, then, apparently the 3rd weekend for AOTC? Damn that is really going to help something massive on that weekend. It will probably increase. Probably like a 30-35% fall from weekend 1 to 2, then a 5% increase to weekend 3. If that is the case...

Figrin D'an

Apr 16th, 2002, 06:04:40 PM

I need to think about my guesses, but I definately want to be in on this...

I'll try to post them in the next few days, at least some preliminary ones, then like Jon said, maybe I'll adjust it when we know the final theater count.

Master Yoghurt

May 3rd, 2002, 04:36:05 AM

TTT!

More predictions please! :)

imported_QuiGonJ

May 3rd, 2002, 07:11:38 AM

Opening Day: $32 million
Opening Weekend: $64 million
Thurs.-Sun.: $96 million

US total: $440 million
Worldwide total: $940 million

Super Wookiee

May 6th, 2002, 12:44:21 PM

"It should also be noted, that in Premiere's "Summer Movie Preview" article also in the new June issue, "Attack of the Clones" tops their list of biggest summer movies, with a North American gross estimate of $350 million (with "Spider-Man" at #2 with a guess at $250 million)."

Wow, i think that is a major under prediction, granted it was probably written last month, but $350 is kinda low.

Super Wookiee

May 6th, 2002, 06:05:25 PM

According to Box office Mojo EP2 will be opening at 3,300 theatres.

Super Wookiee

May 6th, 2002, 06:10:54 PM

I'd like to add some numbers to my predictions

World Wide: 1.5B
Opening Day: 40M
Opening Weekend: 115M
4-Day Total: 139M

Master Yoghurt

May 8th, 2002, 01:54:27 AM

Table updated :)

Keep guessing! Not many days left now..

Marcus Telcontar

May 8th, 2002, 05:47:09 AM

Okay, I'm moving now

World Wide = 970 m
Openday = 32 million
Opening weekend 79 Million
Fourday = 111 million

Jedieb

May 8th, 2002, 07:11:54 AM

Can we change our guesses? I think Spidey's opening is making many of us rethink our earlier guesses.

JMK

May 8th, 2002, 08:26:40 AM

Good point. Maybe we should just start a new thread! :lol

Jedieb

May 8th, 2002, 09:34:22 AM

"NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!! THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!!!":duel

Super Wookiee

May 8th, 2002, 09:40:50 AM

lol

Jedi Master Carr

May 8th, 2002, 10:20:12 AM

You can change them if you want.

Jedieb

May 8th, 2002, 10:41:54 AM

With only 5,000 screens why bother? Or maybe I'll do a dizzy and wait until the last minute to post my guesses! ;)

Doc Milo

May 8th, 2002, 11:56:56 AM

I'd like to add to my guesses:

Opening Weekened: 88.5m
World Wide: 1.02B

Figrin D'an

May 8th, 2002, 12:18:03 PM

Okay, here we go...

Opening Day: $33.5M
Opening Weekend: $82M
4-Day Total: $115.5
Total US: $392M
Total World Wide: $975M

I may decide to revise this... but, this is my first guess.

Master Yoghurt

May 8th, 2002, 01:02:34 PM

<table border="1" cellpadding="2" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"><tr><td>Poster</td><td>Opening Day</td><td>Opening Weekend</td><td>4-Day total (Thurs-Sun)</td><td>Total US</td><td>World Wide</td></tr><tr><td>Ravishing Jedi</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$550M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr><tr><td>Jonathan LB</td><td>$35M</td><td>$90M</td><td>$125M</td><td>$510M</td><td>$1.25B</td></tr><tr><td>Super Wookie</td><td>$40M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$139M</td><td>$500M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr><tr><td> Darth McBain</td><td>$30.5M</td><td>$105.3</td><td>$135.8M</td><td>$490M</td><td>$1.15B</td></tr><tr><td> Darth23</td><td>$31.23M</td><td>$85.93M</td><td>$117.21M</td><td>$477M</td><td>$1.07B</td></tr><tr><td> Doc Milo</td><td>$32M</td><td>$88.5M</td><td>$120.5M</td><td>$472.5M</td><td>$1.02B</td></tr><tr><td>Jedieb</td><td>$32.5M</td><td>$84.5M</td><td>$118.5M</td><td>$469.9M</td><td>$991.5B</td></tr><tr><td>JMC</td><td>$31.98M</td><td>$88.45M</td><td>$120.43M</td><td>$464M</td><td>$1.12B</td></tr><tr><td>JMK</td><td>$30.47M</td><td>$99.56M</td><td>$124.92M</td><td>$462M</td><td>$1.11B</td></tr><tr><td>Master Yoghurt</td><td>$29.9M</td><td>$82.9M</td><td>$112.8M</td><td>$441M</td><td>$1.01B</td></tr><tr><td>Marcus Q'Dunn</td><td>$32M</td><td>$79M</td><td>$111M</td><td></td><td>$970M</td></tr><tr><td>QuiGonJ</td><td>$32M</td><td>$64M</td><td>$96M</td><td>$440M</td><td>$940M</td></tr><tr><td>Helenias Q'Dunn</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$404.0M</td><td>$950M</td></tr><tr><td>Admiral Lebron</td><td>$39M</td><td></td><td>$85M</td><td>$400M</td><td>$850M</td></tr><tr><td>Champion of the Force</td><td>$28M</td><td></td><td></td><td>$400M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Figrin D'an</td><td>$33.5M</td><td>$82M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$392M</td><td>$975M</td></tr><tr><td>Flagg</td><td>$30M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$105M</td><td>$360M</td><td>$960M</td></tr><tr><td> Dutchy</td><td>$25M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$100M</td><td>$350M</td><td>$800M</td></tr></table>

JonathanLB

May 8th, 2002, 01:03:42 PM

I will go out on a limb here...

$90 million Fri-Sun and $125 million for four days.

I keep changing my mind, though, even last night I said $95 and $135, so I have no idea why I keep doing that except I really don't have any idea.

I honestly think it could make about $75 million Fri-Sun, which would not at all disappoint me. I'm really more interested in weekend #2 and also Monday. That Monday gross will tell me a lot.

Spider-Man made $11 million Monday, new record, but TPM made $10.9 million and opened WAY lower than Spider-Man, so it's huge staying power was immediately evident. If AOTC makes $75 million on the weekend and $15 million Monday, that's an incredibly good sign.

JMK

May 8th, 2002, 01:22:42 PM

I like my prediction where it is, and I don't think any last minute tinkering will change anything, although I reserve the right to change my mind! ;)

Dutchy

May 8th, 2002, 02:09:23 PM

All Time Daily Box Office Records Through the Years (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/days/pastrecords.htm)

Interesting chart on, as the guy says, how the industry has evolved (unadjusted for inflation).

Master Yoghurt

May 8th, 2002, 02:16:53 PM

Interesting. Here are the adjusted weekend numbers:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjopeners/

JMK

May 8th, 2002, 03:14:07 PM

Interesting Dutchy!

JonathanLB

May 9th, 2002, 12:04:37 PM

Variety says in their review:
"Clones will soar to the furthest extremes of the B.O. stratosphere"

Super Wookiee

May 9th, 2002, 08:13:12 PM

My high predition is looking better and better.

Boxoffice Mojo is now reporting AOTC to be opening on 3,100+ theatres, originally it was 3,000 even. If they keep rushing more prints out AOTC will start to have a really good chance of brining down Spiderman's record.

JonathanLB

May 10th, 2002, 09:47:47 AM

3,300 theaters is still the official number I heard.

Dutchy

May 13th, 2002, 02:48:59 PM

Update. If I may. :)

Opening Day: $30M
Fri - Sun - $85M
Thurs - Sun $115M
Total Domestic: $390M
Total Worldwide: $850M

Darth23

May 13th, 2002, 06:31:02 PM

30 million ???

TPM made 28.5 million on a Wednesday in 2900 theaters with 1999 ticket prices.

:)

JonathanLB

May 13th, 2002, 06:40:19 PM

Yes, but Darth maybe he doesn't think that as many people will choose to take work off or something, I don't know.

I heard that the same firm is still predicting as many people are going to ditch work for this film as they did for the last. I think that is probably true, but we'll see. They are predicting $319,000,000 in lost wages.

I think opening day of any Star Wars movie is a really huge deal, so I would not be surprised to see quite a large gross.

But it may make about $30M opening day, wouldn't surprise or disappoint me.

Dutchy's predictions look pretty good to me, but I'm sorry I must disagree with the final total. I think this movie will have almost equal staying power to TPM and an $85 million opening will translate to $500 million at the box office. Nevertheless, if the staying power were equal to TPM, by a calculation of $85M on opening weekend, it would make about $580 million.

I also think that the $390 million prediction would ruin two Star Wars records that I personally don't feel are going to fall. Every SW movie that has ever opened has been #1 of its year at the box office. Every Star Wars movie has also taken a spot in the top three highest grossing movies of all time, which this time is going to require beating E.T.'s gross. I forget where that is now, but it'll need $450 million or so.

I would have to see Dutchy's basic numbers for a run of $390 million to be convinced even that such a relatively low sum is possible.

So if you use his opening numbers, which are ok by me, you have $115 million through Sunday. Plus a 4 day week that should bring in about $45 million (TPM made $35M, but rising ticket prices and keeping in mind that TPM's Monday was the 5th day, not the 4th day of its run like AOTC). That would put the total at $160 million heading into the Memorial Day weekend.

Now you have to figure here that just like TPM, the total for three days the weekend before will roughly equal the total for the next four day weekend here. So I would say about $90 million (vs. $85M the weekend before) is a good Memorial Day weekend prediction for 4 days. That is now $250 million and even given significant declines of 40% each weekend thereafter I think it would clear $400M without a problem. I don't see 40% declines consistently, though, I see 25% declines.

I don't want to do all of the hard math but going off three years experience and an estimate, I believe if a film falls 40% each weekend it makes 4 times its opening weekend gross at least, but considering that summer weekday numbers are higher, it could be more like 4.5 to 5 times the opening weekend gross. I forget exactly but I think it is 4 to 4.5. So, of that $90 million Memorial Day weekend, $70 million came Fri-Sun, I am saying (not quite as much as Spidey on its second weekend, even with the help of a holiday).

$250 million + 4 * $70 million - $70 million = $250 million + $280 million - $70 million = $460 million total cume.

The reason $70M is subtracted is because it was already counted in the $250M total, so it adds three times again as much as its Memorial Day weekend take.

Now if you'd like to say that perhaps AOTC falls harder on its Memorial Day weekend frame, I would call that into question as it is the biggest weekend of the year besides July 4th typically, but you are free to do so. For instance, let's say AOTC makes $80 million Memorial Day weekend, $65 of which comes Fri-Sun.

That puts it at $240 million. But fine, I'll be a stickler then and make the math more accurate, because truly I could have used the 4.5 number and gotten a more accurate result.

$240 million + 4.5 * $65 million - $65 million = $240 million + 227.5 million = $467.5 million.

Haha, higher than before, ok so let's go back to the number 4, for arguments sake again:

$240 million + 4 * $65 million - $65 million = $240 million + 195 million = $435 million.

I don't see what other way you can work the math from an $85 million opening, Dutchy, so I would change either your opening figure downwards to $75 million (and I believe this could be possible) or I'd change your final cume upwards to $430 million or so, which would still be down about 15-18% from what TPM made because of the inflation.

Master Yoghurt

May 14th, 2002, 03:48:10 AM

Ok, not long now until AOTC opens.. can you feel the excitement? :)

Post or change your predictions while you have the chance! I will check back to this thread later to update the table.

Darth23

May 14th, 2002, 07:09:19 AM

Post Spiderman pick:

Thursday: $36.20
Friday: $29.17
Saturday: $38.15
Sunday: $33.90

3 day: $101.22
4 day: $137.42

Total Gross: $503 million

(what the hell - I might as well pick a big number)

JonathanLB

May 14th, 2002, 01:29:42 PM

Way to go, Darth! :)

Ok then I have to be exact here like you and make my prediction.

I am going to say $87.8 million on opening weekend, excluding Thursday. $35.5 million on Thursday.

The total, final gross after AOTC has played in theaters throughout 2002 (so if there is a re-release at the end of the year, it counts) is $514.5 million.

Mind you, if I really wanted to "beat Dutchy" I'd just pick $440 million, a more normal number, and win. Just keep that in mind. I'm trying to remain optimistic with my predictions. :)

Dutchy

May 14th, 2002, 02:28:40 PM

If you want to beat me, just pick $391M. :)

Darth23

May 14th, 2002, 04:59:07 PM

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Way to go, Darth! :)

Ok then I have to be exact here like you and make my prediction.

I was playing aroudn in Excel a few weeks ago and decided to make a speculative spreadsheet for AOTC. (anything to pass the time till the movie gets here)

That's why my numbers look like that. They were lower until Spidey came along - I was thinking mostly about Harry Potter's opening numbers amd TPM's staying when i came up with them.

JonathanLB

May 14th, 2002, 05:25:58 PM

I understand, that makes sense. I've been playing around with various scenarios too, hehe.

I've not had a very productive last week or so, just pretty much waiting for AOTC. I mean, hehe, I've gotten JACK SCHITT done in the last 4 days.

Now, I am going to bed, at 4:27 p.m., so I can get up at midnight and go to Evergreen to wait in line for 24 hours! :)

Master Yoghurt

May 15th, 2002, 01:13:28 AM

Screen count update: Star Wars Episode II - Attack of the Clones will open on 3,161 theaters domestically on Thursday, May 16, and will play on about 6,100 screens.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/articles/news/?id=020514a.htm

JMK

May 15th, 2002, 08:54:26 AM

Compared to how many for HP and Spider Man?

Darth23

May 15th, 2002, 09:42:59 AM

Harry Potter:
3670 theaters
8000 prints

Siderman:
3615 theaters
7500 prints

AOTC
3161 theaters
6100 prints

JMK

May 15th, 2002, 09:59:49 AM

Ok, now I guess we really shouldn't expect HP or Spider Man numbers for AotC's debut! Unless inflation has occured in the last 6 months!:lol

Master Yoghurt

May 15th, 2002, 11:10:17 AM

<table border="1" cellpadding="2" bgcolor="#C0C0C0"><tr><td>Poster</td><td>Opening Day</td><td>Opening Weekend</td><td>4-Day total (Thurs-Sun)</td><td>Total US</td><td>World Wide</td></tr><tr><td>Ravishing Jedi</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$550M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr><tr><td>Jonathan LB</td><td>$35.5M</td><td>$87.8M</td><td>$123.3M</td><td>$514.5M</td><td>$1.25B</td></tr>
<tr><td>Super Wookie</td><td>$40M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$139M</td><td>$500M</td><td>$1.5B</td></tr>
<tr><td> Darth23</td><td>$36.20M</td><td>$101.22M</td><td>$137.42M</td><td>$503M</td><td>$1.07B</td></tr><tr><td> Darth McBain</td><td>$30.5M</td><td>$105.3</td><td>$135.8M</td><td>$490M</td><td>$1.15B</td></tr><tr><td>Master Yoghurt</td><td>$34.2M</td><td>$92.7M</td><td>$126.90M</td><td>$478M</td><td>$1.09B</td></tr><tr><td> Doc Milo</td><td>$32M</td><td>$88.5M</td><td>$120.5M</td><td>$472.5M</td><td>$1.02B</td></tr><tr><td>Jedieb</td><td>$32.5M</td><td>$84.5M</td><td>$118.5M</td><td>$469.9M</td><td>$991.5B</td></tr><tr><td>JMC</td><td>$31.98M</td><td>$88.45M</td><td>$120.43M</td><td>$464M</td><td>$1.12B</td></tr><tr><td>JMK</td><td>$30.47M</td><td>$99.56M</td><td>$124.92M</td><td>$462M</td><td>$1.11B</td></tr><tr><td>Marcus Q'Dunn</td><td>$32M</td><td>$79M</td><td>$111M</td><td></td><td>$970M</td></tr><tr><td>QuiGonJ</td><td>$32M</td><td>$64M</td><td>$96M</td><td>$440M</td><td>$940M</td></tr><tr><td>Helenias Q'Dunn</td><td></td><td></td><td></td><td>$404.0M</td><td>$950M</td></tr><tr><td>Admiral Lebron</td><td>$39M</td><td></td><td>$85M</td><td>$400M</td><td>$850M</td></tr><tr><td>Champion of the Force</td><td>$28M</td><td></td><td></td><td>$400M</td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Figrin D'an</td><td>$33.5M</td><td>$82M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$392M</td><td>$975M</td></tr><tr><td> Dutchy</td><td>$30M</td><td>$85M</td><td>$115M</td><td>$390M</td><td>$850M</td></tr><tr><td>Flagg</td><td>$30M</td><td>$75M</td><td>$105M</td><td>$360M</td><td>$960M</td></tr></table>