Weekend Box Office - Jan 25

[Darth23]

Weekend Estimates Jan 25 - 27 According to EntertainmentData.com (http://www.entdata.com/bonews/bonewsframes.html):

( 3day weekend to 3 day weekend drops listed)

1 Black Hawk Down - 18.20 - (60.1) -36%
2 Snow Dogs - 13.62 - (39.3) -23%
3 A Walk To Remember - 13.56 - (13.6) New
4 The Mothman Prophecies - 11.80 - (11.8) New
5 A Beautiful Mind - 11.67 - (93.0) -0.2%
6 The Count Of Monte Cristo - 11.50 - (11.5) New
7 I Am Sam - 8.32 - (8.5) New
8 Lord Of The Rings: Fellowship - 8.03 - (258.7) -36%
9 Kung Pow: Enter The Fist - 7.27 - (7.3) New
10 Orange County - 4.60 - (34.2) -48%

Six movies over 10 million, not a lot over, but over nevertheless.

Black Hawk Down stayed number one, but had a big drop this weekend. A Beautiful Mind dropped only 20% once again - the movie definitely has legs.

FOTR is starting to fall off the radar - four new movies this weekend took a lot out of it. But hey, it least it finished higher than Kung Pow!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thank God for that, I think it lost about 700 screens maybe a 1000 so that hurt it a lot there. What is up with that A walk to remember, that film looks terrible Mandy Moore as an actresses??? She is nothing more than a Britney Spears rip off, heck she is more like a Jessica Simpson rip off. FOTR should still make 300 I think probably just barly either way it will defintely make it pass Shrek for #2 it needs less than 10 million to that, I think its a certaint it will do that.

[Jedieb]

It doesn't look like FOTR will have enough legs to catch HP though. Unless it has an amazing Oscar run I think it will fall short of HP. But $300M is a resounding success for FOTR. It's strong international run is even more impressive I think.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree, really the only reason why FOTR will fall short is because HP opened so huge that is really going to be difference I think.

[CMJ]

"Black Hawk Down" should continue to play well, especially if it gets many nods from the Academy(and that is a good possibility).

[Champion of the Force]

I also agree that FOTR should make $300 million, or failing that at least end up in the 290's range. As Carr said HP's record opening weekend will probably help it maintain a $15-20 million lead over FOTR in the end.

Good to see 'A Beautiful Mind' holding up so well (BO Guru said it slipped only 1% from last weekend). Unfortunately it's not opening down here until early March (*grumble mutter*).

[JMK]

I'm loving my prediction of FOTR to finish at 303M!

A little off topic, Mandy Moore is 100 times more talented (musically anyway) than Spears, Simpson, or or Aguilera for that matter. :D I saw her once on Kilborn and was surprised to see her alone up there with a guitar playing her own song. She doesn't need a whole spectacle to cover up how much her music is a hoax. :p

[JMK]

Also, I would think all the movies that just opened are going to fall right off the top 10 and FOTR will move a few notches up again...

[Tissaauurree Savuurra]

From what I've heard, A Walk to Remember, is a somewhat good movie, or at least said about 20 girls I talked to.

[Champion of the Force]

Ebert also like the film apparently. From what I've heard it's a teen movie that doesn't rely on gross-out comedy for once and tries to be a bit serious.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Who cares about Mandy Moore. Just another processed cutesy cheese pop singer. Blech.

International summary I will do as soon as I can get reliable numbers.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't pay attention much to Mandy Moore or any of those singers, the film just looked boring to me but what do I know. I also think its looking grim for FOTR to pass HP but who knows strangers things have happened. But really FOTR has made more money after its first 3 days than HP did, I am not sure of the numbers but I am guessing that FOTR did 45-50 its its first 3 days and HP did 90 but HP will probably only do 222-225 (I am using an estimated of between 312-315) after its first 3 days while FOTR will probably do 250-253, if HP had had a smaller opening FOTR probably would be the # 1 movie but I guess it will have to settle for second. Still I bet The Two towers will do better than HP 2.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Still I bet The Two towers will do better than HP 2.


The only competition TTT will have for top spot this year will be AOTC. TTT is more action based and should appeal even wider, especially now the first movie has proven to be so good. LOTR's should now have the type of name recognition of Star Wars

FOTR had a lowish opening, but it's shown staying power. HP had a truly absurdly huge opening and got a big holiday boost. Without those two, FOTR would have gained No.1

I think TTT is a no brainer to reach 300 million, how far beyond that, who knows. I would also say tho, the USA is the weakest market for LOTR, but Star Wars, the strongest. I think TTT will win Intl and by quite a margin.

Actually, I dont think AOTC will even get close to FOTR's Intl total, let alone what TTT will do. Even in adusted figures, total sales or whatever metric you use, FOTR has been far bigger that TPM was by a long way. Witness that in a lot of countires, FOTR's has already run down the total of TPM and is still going at a hell of a rate. Hell, Harry Potter ran down TPM totals too and is going to be beaten itself, and it's the second biggest movie of all time Worldwide! Who would have thought a moive that did as well as HP worldwide would itself be beaten easily in the end?

Just watch FOTR in Japan. it's going to be massive.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think AOTC will do pretty good overseas, I think it will easily be the # 1 movie of the year with my guess it taking in 450 in the US and a little over 1 billion world wide, it might not pass the international numbers but I bet it will make more than any other movie when you add in the US numbers.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Then it will need to do percentage wise better Intl than it ever has.

I dont think the incredible performance of HP or FOTR can be tracked through to work out what AOTC will do Intl. HP and FOTR have done incredible percentages of their business Overseas, nearly 65%. That is not mormal. The norrmal seems to be less than 55% of the USA gross. TPM tracked in this normal area.

AOTC will do most likely a 45 - 55 split, basicvaly as TPM did.

[Gav Mortis]

Just watch FOTR in Japan. it's going to be massive.


Massive in Japan? I wouldn't have thought so. Japanese markets are so fickle and difficult to please, I wouldn't have thought FOTR would suit their pallette.

[Darth23]

FOTR had a decent opening - it never had any huge days because it opened over the Christmas holiday. But averaging more than $10 million a day for 2 weeks is a great performance.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think so too, I think the movie had great legs.

[Champion of the Force]

I wouldn't have thought FOTR would suit their (Japan) pallette.
Well considering HP has done very well there, one would assume that FOTR with its similar fantasy elements would also attract similar attention, especially considering FOTR's success elsewhere.