LOTR=590 million WW/ HP=870 WW..can they catch TPM?

[foxdvd]

HP now stands at 870 million World Wide....I think there is a GREAT chance it hits the 922 that TPM has (I think Jon said that TPM is more then that now...maybe 930?)


LOTR is just under 590 now. It still has at least 40-50 million in its legs for America...and if it gets a lot of Oscar nods maybe 50-70 more. You have to think it does at least that in the rest of the world so it should at LEAST be at 690-750...but I think it is going stronger in other parts of the world, so it to should be able to fly past the 800 mark, and be in the mix for that magic 900 number.


What do you guys thinks?

[Marcus Telcontar]

There is enough left in Potter to run down TPM. TPM is 925 officially. It si still playing well enough in big markets like Japan and the UK. (Potter seems to have done about 20+ Million this week)

NOW LOTR is generally doing bigger buisness in most countires than Potter is, I would say that it's also highly likely LOTR will beat them both, even the USA gross comes up to 300 million. If it doesnt, then I would think Potter will finish 1st.,


Remember, LOTR has not opened in the second largest market - Japan yet.

[foxdvd]

Here is Jon's take on the numbers over the last few days..just to save him some time... ;)



Here are some of his ideas on LOTR..

.......
"LOTR would be lucky for $200 million"
.......
about LOTR "Staying power is all that matters ultimately when a film opens solidly, and this film opened far more than solidly, so it should go on to make at least $225 million or so"

.......
"$800 to $900 million?! No way.

$700 million tops.

LOTR is done in the U.S. practically, it'll make it to $270 million at most."

.......

[Darth23]

" LOTR=590 million WW/ HP=870 WW..can they catch TPM?"


Uh... how much is it making week to week?

Has it not opened in some countries yet?

How important are those countries to the overall international box office picture?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its hard to say it hasn't opened in India yet and that will help. I think it will make it to 800 at least and could make it to 900, it will be interesting to see.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Pooter has opened in all major markets and is beginning the tail end of it's run. However, it STILL is producing bloody good numbers from places liek Japan (No.1 last week) and the UK, so it has a lot left yet. Roughly from what I have been able to see, 20 + million weeks are still coming.

Now,, remember the stats shown are usually grosses over the weekend and not the weekday. The only way to see the weekday additions is to of course do some arthmatic and work out whats been added outside of the weekend take.

LOTR as I said in the Intl BO thread has not opened in Japan, which is the second largest B.O. market. There is still plenty of places for it to open. Now, given it is at No 1 or near to in all markets, it making 40+ million weeks dead easy and will do so for a few weeks yet.

With 590 odd in the bank already, add an easy 120 million in Japan (Potter has 118 million now) and about 120 million, you have a bottom estimate of 840 million. It will not do lower.

Also given that LOTR has outperformed Potter in all markets so far, it is not unresonable to expect the Intl gross of FOTR to exceed Potter by at least 5% in the end. If Potter beats TPM, it will have 620+ millionin Intl takings (Which is huge!!!). Thence, FOTR could end up at 650+ INtl, which added to about 290 million in the USA to give 940 million total.

It is not out of the question for 1 billion. Looking at the maths, FOTR should beat Potter in Intl, should be close in USA.

Both movies have done extremely well in the Intl markets. Who would have thought the payoff for these two movies alone would be close to 2 billion??

[Jedi Master Carr]

Whoa I just realized I said India, I was reading about the whole India Pakistan mess and I guess I accidently said it, I meant to say Japan:o

[foxdvd]

LOL! JMC, I was all like "Is India a big Boxoffice monster?" :)

[Mu Satach]

LOL

Same here... "India???"

:)

[Jedieb]

You'd think a country with a BILLION people would have a few movie houses but apparently they're into theater and cows, lots and lots of cows.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know where are there priorities:p Actually though India does have a movie industry of its own but some people think its run by organized crime. Still, even though India has the largest population on earth, the people are too poor to have the luxury to watch movies. Its kind of sad the situation and all, and its even worse now with India and Pakistan on the brink of war.

[Darth23]

I thought Bollywood (sp?) has been getting bigger and bigger over the last several years.

That's why organized thugs have been trying to get a piece of the pie.


They seem like idiots - the thugs in India and in Russia too - they should learn from the Cosa Nostra how to squeeze out a few bucks without ruining business.

[Marcus Telcontar]

India's movie industry is a lot bigger than you would realise. A lot bigger. There's one hell of a lot of rich people in India, it's a big market, especially for it's own movies.

Bollywood is indeed big and getting bigger all the time

[Master Yoghurt]

Marcus is right. I seem to remember India got the second largest film industry in the world. Movies are hugely popular, but I am guessing western movies dont hit the charts the same way, yet..

[JonathanLB]

"LOTR would be lucky for $200 million"

Yeah I think it was very lucky for it, don't you? I think Jackson made a quality piece of work. Had it been inferior, I really doubt this movie would have made more than $180 million or so. Instead, the guy just gave us one of the best book to movie adaptions ever and that is why this film has easily been able to top $200 million.

I am very pleased with LOTR's success and haven't ever rooted against it. Harry Potter, on the other hand, ugg. That movie is just idiotic. It's the worst film in the top ten right now without question. Home Alone is a classic, even if it is more of a kids movie perhaps. The Star Wars films in the top ten rock, Jurassic Park rocks, even Titanic is a good, solid film! It's way better than Harry Potter anyway. Oh, well, Forrest Gump is in the top ten still, haha, ok nevermind. That movie blows too. Still, HP is a poor addition and it will soon be a nice subtraction after it gets pounded into submission by new box office titans. :)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Update -

Potter is now about 870 million worldwide. It has 570 million for second spot on Intl and still going hard. It is No.1 in Japan by a long, long way, so the money is still rolling in. It is now certain to be the second movie to break 600 million in Intl gross, which is staggering. It's Intl performance has outgunned the USA B.O. by an unusually high margin too.

Given it's USA run is winding down, (315 million likely), it will need 610 million Intl to beat TPM for all time No. 2. Only 40 million when it's doing 20+ million weeks? No problem. In most countries, it is showing some very good legs.

Fact is, it's convincingly out done it's USA gross except for that obsence opening weekend everywhere. Rather interesting to see this, becuase this Intl skewing is not normal.


LOTR:FOTR is now at 339 million Intl and going much harder than Potter did and showing even better legs. With the fact it does not open in Japan for a month (And if you follow the Intl figures, the later it opens in new markets, the more extreme it's starting weeks), expect something bigger.

(Potter has done to date 134 million in Japan and going at 18 million per week with this market ALONE. Think what FOTR could do if it follows the Intl tread and outdoes Potter)

My estimate is that FOTR will beat Potter easily in Intl, maybe 650 million. It is a genuine chance to break 1 billion worldwide I think, but will need 700 million Intl to do it.


Now here is the question for other to ponder..... why has Harry Potter and Lord of The Rings done so extraordinarly well on the Intl markets? The eventual takes will be unusually skewed to the Intl side, which makes me wonder why.

(And for another ponder.... What is the full LOTR's take going to be when all three moives and DVD's are done? what a return on investment!!!)

[Jedieb]

These international numbers remind me of JP's worldwide take. It was over $560M. If you consider how many fewer screens it had access to in 93 that's pretty impressive. I think these movies are benefitting from an increase in screens and theaters worldwide. I don't think that AOTC will be able to match these international numbers.