Weekend Boxx Office - 1/18

[Darth23]

There's a new sherrif in town.

1 Black Hawk Down - $10.11 - (12.0)
2 Snow Dogs - $4.193 - (4.2)
3 A Beautiful Mind - $3.471 - (66.4)
4 Lord of the Rings - $3.198 - (236.6)
5 Orange County - $2.846 - (20.6)
6 Ocean's 11 - $1.641 - (165.5)
7 The Royal Tenenbaums - $1.354 - (33.3)
8 Kate & Leopold - $1.025 - (9.8)
9 Gosford Park - $1.000 - (8.9)
10 Vanilla Sky - $0.881 - (90.9)
11 In the Bedroom - $0.640 - (9.6)
12 Harry Potter - $0.548 - (306.7)


Looks like a $30 million (3 day) weekend for Black Hawk Down. I think FOTR will pull make it to number 3 when the weekend's done.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Plus it is a four day weekend, so Sunday should perform better than most, FOTR always does good on Saturday and I guess it will make between 15-18 for the 4 days which is still pretty good concerding its been out for over a month, it should pass 250 by Monday, also I wouldn't be surprised if FOTR does better than Snow Dogs too, heck Beautful Mind could do better than Snow Dogs, that film looks terrible.

[JMK]

so are people starting to readjust their FOTR predictions?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I still think it will do 300 easily, I prediected it would get to 330, and I am not sure if it will do it or not, I'm going to say 315 now that seems more attenanable.

[Champion of the Force]

Well Sunday's numbers have come in. Black Hawk Down took first with approx. $29 million with Snow Dogs in second place.

FOTR dropped by 20% and now stands at around $246 million.

[JMK]

I predicted 303M for FOTR, I wonder if it'll get that far...

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is pretty low drop, we might now start seeing low drops from it, from here on out. If so it could do between 300-330, I would speculate. Its almost at 250 and might get there tomorrow and would need only 50 million to make it.

[Champion of the Force]

So much for Jon's prediction of $200 million domestic - $250 million tops. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

He wasn't the only one that said that I can think of a couple of others on this board that didn't think it would make it to 200 million even, not going to name any names. It should make it to 300 and has a solid chance of beating out Harry Potter for #1.

[Marcus Telcontar]

I was one.

And I still think it wont make 300 million. No way.

[Champion of the Force]

I think it might, depending on if (maybe that should be 'when') it gets some Oscar nominations which could beef up some business. Also there's the rumoured Two Towers trailer that may be released sometime soon which may bring a few extra bucks in.

I think I originally guessed around $270 million. As it stands I wouldn't be surprised if it made it into the $280 million - $290 million range, but the $300 million mark still has a question mark over it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Were you? I didn't remember you being one though I was thinking of a couple others. I still think it will make it to 300 it is at almost 250 (it should make it tomorrow since that day is holiday) It will do at least 16 million but probably 17 million for the four day holiday, I think it will drop again another 20-25% next weekend and make between 9-10 million putting at about 260-265 and then it will pass Shrek probably on the last day of January. It would then only be 22 million away from 300 and I am postive it can do it between now and the Oscars in March. Now the bigger question is can it beat Harry Potter and that one I am not sure. It would need to make at least 315 to do it (HP is at 308 right now but is just about finished I think it will make it to 312-314 tops) so that would mean it would have to have a strong feburary. Now what could help it is if they do a big add campaign with the Oscars and when they add the Two Towers trailer to sometime in Feburary or March (I'm not sure when they could that), that push could give it another 10-15 million right there and it may not its hard to tell at this point.

[Darth23]

My prediction was 279 million. I think it could do better than that. I kind of think that if Harry Potter can make 300 million then FOTR can too.

[Jedieb]

Will FOTR get the same kind of boost from the Oscars that HP got from the holiday season? Without the benefits of the long holiday break I don't think HP would have made it to $300M. If FOTR can generate enough Oscar buzz then it may level off its declines enough to reach $300M and creep past HP. We'll just have to wait and see, but I think that it's quite possible.

[Darth23]

I thought FOTR's 4 day numbers looked a bit high. The FINAL totals are in:

Jan 18 - 21 Weekend Totals - according to EntertainmentData.com (http://www.entdata.com/bonews/bonewsframes.html):

{rank movie - 4 day total - (total gross)}

1 Black Hawk Down - 33.63 - ( 35.5)
2 Snow Dogs - 23.71 - ( 23.7)
3 Lord Of The Rings: Fellowship - 15.27 - (248.2)
4 A Beautiful Mind - 14.71 - ( 77.6)
5 Orange County - 10.53 - ( 28.5)
6 Ocean's Eleven - 6.76 - (171.6)
7 The Royal Tenenbaums - 5.36 - ( 37.3)
8 Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius - 4.31 - ( 74.1)
9 Gosford Park - 4.15 - ( 12.2)
10 Kate & Leopold - 4.13 - ( 42.8)

FOTR will have to wait a bit to pass the $250m mark. It has at least another 30 million - I think it can make it to $300m