Will ET beat SW yet again?!

[Jedieb]

I hated ET for years. Throughout the mid and late 80's I would go off on a tirade against anyone who mentioned the movie, Elliot, or Drew Barrymore. Why? Because ET took the Box Office crown from Star Wars. I blasted the movie without seeing it. Questioned the sanity of the American public when ROTJ failed to regain the top spot. It wasn't until years later that I finally lightened up and started to appreciate what a solid movie ET really is. Now, Elliot and his beast have returned to threaten us again! The ET SE returns to theaters in March 02. Armed with digitally sanitized FBI agents and the cut Harrison Ford as principal scene a whole new generation is set to phone home again. I know what you're thinking:

"jedieb, you're on crack! An ET:SE can't come close to matching ANY of the SW:SE's! The only reason ET took the top spot was because of inflation! That movie sucks! ET must die!!!!!"

If only it were that simple. Let's look at some familiar numbers:
All Time B.O. Champs (U.S.)
1. Titanic $600M
2. SW: ANH $461M
3. SW: TPM $431M
4. ET $399M

"jedieb, hear you not what I say! ET had the benefit of inflation!" Not as much as you might think.

All time B.O. Champs adjusted for Inflation
1. GWTW $1,327M
2. Snow White $1,056M
3. SW: ANH $829M
4. ET $741M

In BOTH charts ET trails ANH by less than $100M. (Regular $62M, Inflation $88M) Not only is it possible that ET might pass TPM and then ANH on the regular list, but it may pass ANH on the Inflation list as well! If you're thinking that there's no way an ET re-release could generate as much cash as a SW then you may be underestimating ET as much as I did back in the early 80's. For reasons that still escape me, this movie generated bigger box office than every SW sequel. Only ANH matched and surpassed it. Think of all the children of the 80's that are going to try to take a step back in time by seeing ET. Think of how many of them will be dragging their kids kicking and screaming to the theater. This movie worked magic once, it can do it again. I think it can easily make between $50M-$100M. The question is will it be closer to $50M or $100M?

CAN ANYTING SAVE US!:\

[Hart]

ET will definitely pass SW in the inflation listings with a re-release. I didn't really enjoy ET, but it'll be a huge event for families.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think ET might past TPM but it will not pass ANH, first its got some heavy competition when it comes out with The Time Machine and Ice Age, I myself probably will just wait for the DVD I want to see the Time Machine more myself (I love HG Wells), the ET SW will probably do 15-20 opening weekend but will probably only do 50-60 overall falling short of ANH just barely.

[darth_mcbain]

I think an E.T. rerelease will only do marginally well. Of course it is a wonderful family movie, but I get the sense that as good a film as it is, it is kind of dated and won't be nearly as big now as it was way back when. As for passing SW, I think that it is safe to say it will pass TPM - it doesn't need much to do it. Beating ANH is a tougher one to call. I think it will be really close, and while I really hope it does not, my gut tells me it will probably just edge it out.

I wouldn't worry too much, though, because I'd be surprised if ANH (all the SW movies, for that matter) doesn't come out in a theatrical rerelease at some point where it will make up the ground.

And they're just numbers... Who cares what they say anyway - we all know SW will always be tops in our hearts - who cares what the B.O. says (I should be careful saying that in the Box Office thread :) )

[Jedieb]

And they're just numbers... Who cares what they say anyway - we all know SW will always be tops in our hearts - who cares what the B.O. says (I should be careful saying that in the Box Office thread

JUST NUMBERS! NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! :p

True, true McBain. Following the receipts and crunching is what we come here to do, but it's not the most important aspect of SW, at least not for me. They really are just numbers. Anyway, back to the evil juggernaught that is ET. I was looking at some of the numbers of ET's summer run. They are simply phenomenal. ET was hanging around the top 5 through the summer and well into the fall and winter! In fact, as late of 12/3 ET was not only in the top 5, but it was #1 for the weekend! When was the last time a movie plowed through the summer season and still regained the #1 spot in December of that year? This was without a re-release mind you! I would wager that the only film to do that would be none other than ANH.

You also can't argue that ET had no competition. The modern box office was well in place. ET faced a plethora of great movies that year. Not only did ET have serious competition throughout the year, but both ANH and ESB were re-released in 82. As the season wore on new films would supplant ET, only to have the freakish beast with the light up chest wear them down and regain the top spot. By December of 82 ET had raked up over $300M at the box office. That was impressive not just because it was in 1982 dollars, but because the movie opened with under $25 for the weekend in the middle of June. (I can't find the opening numbers but it looks like they were between $20M-$30M.) This movie just dominated. I just don't know what it's capable of in the here and now. If any movie could shock us and rake up ANH:SE re-release numbers, this is the movie to do it. It could also go the other way and barely register like the recent Grease re-release. I want to say $75M just to split the difference of my $50-$100M estimate, but I'll wait and see what kind of buzz ET is generating come March.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think the Time Machine will make more money myself and be the firs film to break a 100 in 2002, at least I hope it does. I am also not sure if people want to see it, it is something that is difficult to judge, I'd be very surprised though if it did 100 or more.

[Mu Satach]

Good God... I completely forgot the Time Machine was coming out this year. I'm looking forward to that as much as Spidey and Ep. II!

[Jedieb]

As much I like Wells, I'm really not that jazzed about TM. Maybe I'll get into it when I see some more ads.

[BUFFJEDI]

ET. 725.4 mil

[Hart]

TM is sorta hard to judge. It's a sci-fi, special effects blockbuster, but the storyline is sorta old, isn't it? To go to the past to save the future? *cough* Back to the Future *cough* Bill and Ted's Amazing Adventure *cough*

[Darth23]

I think ET will pull in 30 millon total. :D


I really have no idea, though. I assume they studio will try for a decent push - not like the recent releases we've seen.

[Mu Satach]

Originally posted by Hart
TM is sorta hard to judge. It's a sci-fi, special effects blockbuster, but the storyline is sorta old, isn't it? To go to the past to save the future? *cough* Back to the Future *cough* Bill and Ted's Amazing Adventure *cough*

Where do you think all the sci-fi writers got the idea from?

The Time Machine was H.G. Wells first book and was published in 1894, 95 or 96.... so yeah... the idea *is* a little old. ;)


PS - your sequence is out of order. :D

I was gonna tell you the proper sequence... but that might be construed as spoilege. :D

[Alpha]

Time Machine sounds like a cool movie. And as for ET, I don't think it will do all that well. Think of the kinds of things kids are watching now, and there goes a couple million...

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thanks Mu I was going to say that too. Wells created the whole time travel thing (though Mark Twain did do it in A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's court but there was no machine that got him there) the book is brillaint and is directed by his grandson whcih is also very cool. Still I question how closely they will follow the book I can't figure out who Jeremey Irons plays (leader of the Morlocks?) but other than the rest of it seems pretty similar though they do add something about he lost his true love and that is why he built the machine (the book is never clear on why he built it really). I know I want to see it and can't wait for it to come out.

[JMK]

I think ET will rake in closer to 100M than 50M and will pass ANH. Sad, but true. But as said, they're just numbers...until ANH etc is re-released (again) and reclaims the top spots! :lol

[Mu Satach]

Originally posted by Jedi Master Carr
but other than the rest of it seems pretty similar though they do add something about he lost his true love and that is why he built the machine (the book is never clear on why he built it really). I know I want to see it and can't wait for it to come out.

Yeah, the story is told from his friends point of view. Sort of like Watson telling us all about Holmes.

& Jeremy Irons is the lead Uber Morlock. :) :D :)

I'm just glad to see a different film version besides the one done in the 60's. Granted the flick turned me on to Well's but the Aryan Elio have always bothered me. :)

Also, Twain's "A Conneticut Yankee in King Aurther's Court" was published almost a decade earlier but it's more Twain's jab at the English monarchy whereas Well's "Time Machine" is more an exploration of social structures, the achievement of a Utopia and the violent self destructive behavior of man, the futility of war, etc. Which is much more in line with modern Sci-Fi themes than Twain's tale. (Granted though, I haven't read Twain's work. Only seen the cheesy flicks that get made off of it. :)) I really should pick up a few Twain books. :) :) :) :)

Oh... and since this is an ET thread...

I doubt I'll see ET. From childhood it's just not a flick that stands ou in my mind, fun at the theater but never really got into it.

[Jedieb]

Variety had an ariticle about the ET anniversary release. Here's a quick excerpt:


The studio has marshaled all of its resources to help "E.T." cut through the noise of the contemporary kids market. U plans to bow the pic on more than 2,000 screens, and it's engineered a cutting-edge marketing campaign designed to brand and cross-promote the release like a flashy new tentpole.


That's a fairly big number of screens for a re-release. Some rival studio execs doubt whether ET will resonate today with audiences because of its age and exposure. Unversal does seem to be gearing up for a major promotion. They're plastering ET all over the place and will be releasing the DVD this fall. I think it's looking like that damn alien really will make a run at ANH. :mad

[JMK]

I think we're going to see ANH drop a spot unfortunately. Unfortunate for those who care about B.O. standings that is...

[imported_QuiGonJ]

I hope not.. just as CB doesn't get HP, I never understood the greatness of ET.

[Jedieb]

I'm going to go see it if for no other reason that I want to see the Harrison Ford scene. Plus, I think it'll be a nice movie to take my son to. After that we'll be seeing Ice Age. A possible new AOTC trailer and Ray Romano as a woolly mammoth, what's not to like?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Since their coming out with the DVD later this year I am just going to wait. Also it faces some major competition that weekend, Blade 2 opens the same spot, not sure if I will see that either but I bet it will make 20-25 million, while ET will make 10-15 (I'd still don't think it will past ANH I bet it makes about 50 million in its rerelease.

[darth_mcbain]

Just read this over on IMDB - apparently they are considering doing a touchup of the Indiana Jones Movies... As for them taking down any of the SW movies, I don't know - what are the current numbers for the IJ series?
Numbers aside, though, I'd love to see them do this. I love all three of those movies (even the second one) and would love to see them on the big screen - especially the first one. I think they could do a good job of touching them up and maybe adding a few things in without damaging the fun and spirit they had when they first came out.


From IMDB:
Following a screening of a restored and digitally "tweaked" 20th Anniversary Special Edition: E.T. -- The Extra-Terrestrial in Salt Lake City, Frank Marshall, who co-produced the film with his wife, Kathleen Kennedy Marshall, indicated that plans are afoot to similarly renew the Indiana Jones movies, which the Marshalls also co-produced, according to an article appearing on the DreamWorks' fan website (http://dreamworksfansite.com/editorials/E.T._20_Review.php). "We're thinking about doing this with Indy," Marshall was quoted as saying, "bringing it back and spiffing up the effects. Before seeing the new E.T., we would have had mixed feelings about seeing Raiders [of the Lost Ark] touched in any way. Now the prospect is mouth watering."

[Jedi Master Carr]

None of them are close really, I think Raiders is like 80 million behind ESB, IJLC is about 100 back of ESB Temple doom is behind that somewhere, I doubt they could catch any Star Wars film, but thw of them have shots at the 250 mark.

[JMK]

I don't think they can get to the SW mark either. For some reason, I don't think Indiana Jones re-releases would do that well at all. Maybe 20-30 million per movie, I guess it's up to you whether or not you call that a success or failure. ;)

[Marcus Telcontar]

Well...

I am hopeful ET doesnt do well, because it is a truly vastly overrated picture. I hated it as a kid and I'm not exactly liking of it now.

Besides, some of the changes are disturbing. Like, switching the guns for radios? I mean really, doesnt it lose it's edge being dummied down like that?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I used to like it as a kid but I haven't really watched it years, I mean it was a good movie and maybe still is but I would rather just wait for the DVD to see, since its coming out later this year. Still, it is not the DVD I want most besides FOTR the one I can't wait for is the Back to the Future Box set, they are releasing it in Dec and I can't wait, it was my favorite movies and still is after Star Wars.

[Jedieb]

I don't like the idea of the CGI sanitation either. They're actually calling more attention to the guns by removing them. It's just another example of PC run amok. Why didn't they insert bags of Recees candy instead of radios?

[Jedi Master Carr]

:lol that would be funny I read on the DVD it will be the guns instead of the radio. If that is the case why are they doing it in the first place?