Darth Turbogeek
Dec 27th, 2001, 01:22:37 AM
Had to repost somethign I saw at IDMB here
Usually the industry has a good idea of how a film will do after the first week. I haven't been able to find any consensus for FOTR. I've heard the $350 million number, but also $500M. I don't know how their arrived at these and I don't know when the estimates where made. (the $500M came from someone who seemed intellegent on a message board so its pretty weak.)
There seem to be a number of factors that make the film take hard to estimate:
1)The film is 3 hours and difficult to schedule for multiple repeat showings.
2)Die hard fans are likely to see it an indeterminate multiple of times. (or tens of multiple times in my case ) :-)
3)It seems to be crossing over many of the fantasy movie's traditional demographics young/old female/male.
4)It's actually a bit weak with the traditional target market for the genera which is junior and senior high school boys.
5)It's running up against competition that provides alternate channels but is otherwise extremely week.
6)(the big exception to #5) It is competing against Harry Potter which is both a draw to get people thinking about fantasy and also competition for the entertainment dollar.
Most seem to thing that for the huge critical and fan hype the movie has gotten, $73 million for the first five days was rather week. However, some have suggested the insiders at New Line (who expected it to do well) are completely bowled over by the first week and that they now expect it to far exceed their expectations.
That is what I have been able to glean. So far I haven't been able to find any credible estimates made based on the first full week of sales and exit interviews. If anyone has these please share them.
Point 4 is an odd observation, but something I was pondering too. When I went to LOTR, I noted an 80 y.o. grandma who loved it and wanted to see the next two. Young kids loved it. Women love it. Older men love it.
But, it seems to me that the male 15 - 25 yo demographic isnt as strong as you expect. At least that's what it seems to me.
Usually the industry has a good idea of how a film will do after the first week. I haven't been able to find any consensus for FOTR. I've heard the $350 million number, but also $500M. I don't know how their arrived at these and I don't know when the estimates where made. (the $500M came from someone who seemed intellegent on a message board so its pretty weak.)
There seem to be a number of factors that make the film take hard to estimate:
1)The film is 3 hours and difficult to schedule for multiple repeat showings.
2)Die hard fans are likely to see it an indeterminate multiple of times. (or tens of multiple times in my case ) :-)
3)It seems to be crossing over many of the fantasy movie's traditional demographics young/old female/male.
4)It's actually a bit weak with the traditional target market for the genera which is junior and senior high school boys.
5)It's running up against competition that provides alternate channels but is otherwise extremely week.
6)(the big exception to #5) It is competing against Harry Potter which is both a draw to get people thinking about fantasy and also competition for the entertainment dollar.
Most seem to thing that for the huge critical and fan hype the movie has gotten, $73 million for the first five days was rather week. However, some have suggested the insiders at New Line (who expected it to do well) are completely bowled over by the first week and that they now expect it to far exceed their expectations.
That is what I have been able to glean. So far I haven't been able to find any credible estimates made based on the first full week of sales and exit interviews. If anyone has these please share them.
Point 4 is an odd observation, but something I was pondering too. When I went to LOTR, I noted an 80 y.o. grandma who loved it and wanted to see the next two. Young kids loved it. Women love it. Older men love it.
But, it seems to me that the male 15 - 25 yo demographic isnt as strong as you expect. At least that's what it seems to me.