I just made 10 bucks!

[Darth23]

A friend of mine bet me that Harry Potter would make it to 300 million before the end of its run.

Now I COULD be wrong and it COULD reach that mark, but chances are that will will be short of that mark. It's prolly going to lose a bunch of screens next week, so the holiday period will only have a limited effect on it's totals.

[JMK]

I seem to remember that I was possibly the only person here that said it wouldn't make it to 300, now if I can only find the thread...

[Darth23]

Hee hee.

Well my original guess was 143 million after seeing the poster. My prediction the day before it was released was 250 million, I think. (it STILL hasn't passed that mark - yet).

[Jedi Master Carr]

It should pass that mark today though, it was at 245 on Friday, I am guessing it finishes with 285 making it #2 film of the year behind LOTR.

[Darth23]

The next two weeks will tell the tale.

After the kids are back in school the only thing it will have to look forward to is the discount theater bump.

[JMK]

Slightly off topic, but don't the LOTR previews on TV look better and better every time you see it? :D

[Darth23]

not really, i think I've already seen too much.

I'm hopign when I see the movie I'll be thinking "Middle Earth" and not "New Zealand". :p

[Darth23]

[damn double-post]

[Jedieb]

I just got back from boxofficeguru and they seem to think HP is going to "coast" past $300M. I really think it's going to be a tough road for HP with the way it's been dropping. Maybe the X-Mas break will do it some good, but Monsters INC is still out there so it doesn't have the kiddie market all to itself.

[CMJ]

Yeah...I do think it has a good chance to hit 300M. The holiday moviegoing season allows films to display great legs.... HP will defintely go north of 280M...so it's gonna be close.

[darth_mcbain]

When you say pass 300 Mill, does that include DVD/VHS sales or is that strictly the B.O. return? I thought that DVD/VHS sales counted in those figures, in which case HP will do very well, I think. I thought I heard that the first cut of the movie was close to 4 hours long, which could mean loads of extras on the DVD and will eagerly be snatched up...

[Jedieb]

We're just talking about B.O. returns. Those DVD/Video figures are a completely different animal. We never lump those in with B.O. numbers.

[darth_mcbain]

Oh ok. If they were figured in, then HP would easily shoot right past 300M without a second thought, but as they aren't included, it could be tough to call... On the one hand you've got Christmas coming up, so parents might take their kids for a second viewing, but you also have LOTR coming out, which will take a large piece of the audience. I also think that Johnny Neutron is coming out, which doesn't look to even be in the same league as HP, but could take some of the kiddie market.

[Darth23]

Yeah - Domestic US BO.
It's at 500 million worldwide - it will probably get close to 600 (at least), but I think there's too many factors agaisn it in the US. If it behaves like The Grinch, then it will totoally drop after New Years, so these next few weeks are all there really is.

I think it's due to lose theaters and screens - it's the number 4 movie in thecountry and playing in 400 more theaters than any othr movie. Plus there are FIVE other wide release movies coming out on Friday, in addition to FOTR on Wednesday and at least 2 more movies opening on Christmas Day.

Those movies need theaters and screens and they're going to have to come from somewhere.

Plus I think FOTR wil have a direct impact of pulling some of HP's audience away, Monsters Inc has been dropping less than HP, so that's some competition for it's younger audience.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually its now only 4 counting LOTR, Kate and Leopold got pushed back to Christams and that leaves according to Box office Mojo
Majestic-2100
How High 1600
Jimmy Neutron-2800
Joe Somebody-2400
FOTR-3300 (maybe I read somewhere 3500 so there is some question there)

Now these are theaters not screens, still it looks like a lot of rotten movies, How High looks really dumb, Joe Somebody looks like Tim Allen's worse movie ever, and Jimmy Neutron looks lame for a kids movie, thats not to mention that Majestic is getting bad reviews so far. I am betting that LOTR will have at least a 2-1 advantage over its next closest movie which will probably be The Majestic but its possible that it might do more than everything else combined like Potter did.

[Darth23]

I think FOTR will KILL everything else, but still they ARE new movies and they'll have that New Movie smell for a few days anyway. :)

Kate and Leopold bing pushed back 5 days will only delay the impact of HP a bit.