Can AOTC or EP3 top 90M?

[Jedieb]

Can AOTC or EP3 possibly top $90M for an opening weekend? I think it's going to extremely difficult for a number of reasons.
1) Quality Control
I really don't think we'll ever see Lucas greenlight 3,600+ theaters and over 8,000+ screens for a SW release. At its height TPM barely had over 3,000 theaters. Could he have gotten more screens if he wanted to? Of course, but the demands that LFL put on theaters prevent HP type screencounts. Less screens means more people get turned away that first weekend.

2) LFL muscle
Another issue keeping screencounts down is the financial demands made by LFL. If the same box office receipt demands are made again then you're going to have some theaters balk again. Remember those NYC theaters that refused to give in? Why would they now when they know Spiderman and other hits are on the way.

3) The Wednesday or Thursday headstart.
An early Wed. or Thurs. release will steal some tickets from that first weekend's sales. Some people may skip a repeat viewing on Saturday to avoid the crowd's because they saw it Wed. night. For some their only AOTC viewing will come that first night.

Inflation is going to help, but if TPM couldn't break TLW's record with the aid of inflation then how will AOTC or EP3? I'd LOVE to be wrong, but I think it's just too difficult for a SW movie that opens on Wed. to generate 3 more $30M days that same weekend. Any ideas?

[BUFFJEDI]

Go see it as many times as you can , on opening day ???;)

[darth_mcbain]

I'm going to do my part - I'm gonna try to see it more than once on opening day... or at least more than once on the opening weekend. I'm probably good for 15-20 viewings overall - I'll try to get them in early to help the B.O.

[JMK]

I simply don't think it can be done. Not if it opens on a wednesday. If it opened on a friday, we wouldn't be talking about this. But apparently it's opening on a thursday, so who knows what to expect now. Despite the polls, I still believe alot of people were made skeptical of SW because of TPM, so some may wait until the public's reviews are out.

[Jedieb]

It'll be interesting to see if the backlash (Jar Jar, Jake, etc..) will have any effect. It certainly didn't keep TPM from having a great run, but it's become so cliche for critics and others to bash it unfairly that they may act like it was a failure and ignore its success. I think AOTC and EP3 will also be hurt by the sequel factor. "A SW movie? Didn't they just have one last year?" The ticket buyers that were pulled in from the excitement of the first SW movie in 16 years may skip these next two movies. We're hypnotized, but for a lot of people it really is just another movie. What HP is to me, SW is to them. And if the novelty of the "new" SW movie wears off, they may be inclined to wait for cable or video/DVD.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Ok I might sound crazy but I think it has a shot, mainly because of several reason. First theater quality has actually gone up. Starting in 99 all of these theater chains began opening these huge new state of the art mulitplexies (that is one reason why HP was on so many screens) in the process half of the bad theaters have been closed (I know of 5 just in my area) Now this means that AOTC will defintely open on more screens at the very least because of these new multiplexies, lets say for argument it can get on 7000 screens (HP got in over 8,000 so I think it is possible) which would way more than TPM.
Second

Another issue keeping screencounts down is the financial demands made by LFL. If the same box office receipt demands are made again then you're going to have some theaters balk again. Remember those NYC theaters that refused to give in? Why would they now when they know Spiderman and other hits are on the way. I think it matters hardly at all because most of those theaters have no choise because they are all bankrupt. That is the reason Regal backed down on there demands on LOTR was because they went bankrupt and desperatly needed the money. Then there is the competition, I have no clue what is opening in May beyond Spiderman, but I see Spiderman opening like POTA or X-men and crashing badly just the same so it will not affect AOTC. Now we will have to wait and see what else opens, I know MIB2 opens in July, I don't think AP3 will be out until August (if then) because they have just started filming. Minority Report is probably it but I think it comes out in mid June. It really looks like a weak first part of the summer because of the feared strike at the moment because many of the movies (T3, Matrix 2 and 3, etc) were pushed back because of the feared strike (that never happened) so the theaters will need the money from AOTC because there are no guarentees except three films (Spiderman, MIB2 and EP2) and plus they are all bankrupt.

Now there is your last point which is the one I do agree with. If it opens on Wed I don't think it will happen. Now it will still easily break the fastest to 100 record but that is about it. Now if opens on Thursday as the Site says then I'd it has a chance. It could open between 33-35 million on Thursday but still it would have to open about 30 two more time which would be a challange. Still under that scenerio it should still be the fastest to 100 and have the highest gross ever in 4 days which would be something.

[Jedieb]

The final HP numbers are in so we can get a look at the damage done.
HP
Date Gross Total
11/16/01 $32,333,203 $32333203
11/17/01 $33,512,941 $65846144
11/18/01 $24,448,477 $90294621

EP1
Date Gross Total
5/19/99(W) $28,542,349 $28.54
5/20/99(T) $12,307,918 $40.85
5/21/99(F) $18,467,513 $59.31
5/22/99(S) $24,414,123 $83.73
5/23/99(S) $21,929,334 $105.66
5/24/99(M) $10,881,272 $116.54

You can look at these numbers and come up with lots of observations. HP's Friday numbers were even stronger than first reported while Sunday's were weaker, which was to be expected. I think it's clear the disadvantages a Wed. opening gives you. Thursdays are a killer. HP's 2nd day shows a slight jump while TPM's drops like a rock. Now a Thursday opening might actually help remedy this huge 2nd day SW drop. With a Thursday opening AOTC should EASILY reach $100M in 4 days. If HP makes it it will be by the skin of its teeth because it's a Monday. And you can see the kind of drop TPM took on its first Monday. (Although if HP comes anywhere near TPM's Monday hold it will clear $100M.) Thursdays are a tough movie night though. It's traditionally the strongest night of network programming. For the last couple of decades TV's biggest shows have been found on Thursday and early Sunday nights. Add in the fact that May is sweeps and you've got some serious entertainment competition on that night. I think a $20Mplus opening Thursday night is easily attainable for AOTC, but a strong Friends/Survivor night could keep it from reaching $30M. But the bonus is you head into the weekend with a strong $20M plus opening instead of the $12M Thursday that TPM did. I think that an $80M weekend is easily within reach for AOTC. $90M - $100M isn't totally out of the question when you factor in inflation and hopefully a higher screen count. I really think that's key. AOTC doesn't have to match HP's screen count, but it does have to surpass TPM's. If it doesn't then I just don't think they'll be enough seats for the record to fall.

What do ya think?

[Jedieb]

One quick thing I've noticed in my research; HP didn't break TPM's single day record. That had already been done by TMR. If this isn't proof that eventually ALL SW movies will drop out of the top ten I don't know what is. Inflation knows not the Jedi Code. :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with you that AOTC will make 100 million if 4 days, by the way has anybody heard how much HP made yesterday? Showbiz is down and nobody else that I have seen has the numbers up. As far as Thursday I'd say it opens somewhere between 28-35. It could be closer to 35 maybe. I know you mention Friends and Survivor luckly I think Survivor will long since been over and there is just Friends but the season finale will probably be at the end of the month. Plus I think most SW fans would pick going to see EP2 opening night over friends anyday I know I would:p

[Jedieb]

I think not having Survivor to compete with will help a great deal. As lame as it is, it's one of those "event" shows. People watch it at bars, each other's homes, etc. It's not as "hip" as it use to be, but it still draws in big numbers. Yes, die hards will be out in droves regardless, but there are a lot of casual movie goers that may wait for Friday night. You're right though, I wouldn't be surprised to see AOTC open at close to $35, even on a Thurs. It SHOULD be able to post 1-3 $30M days. Ohhhh, let the excitement begin!

[JMK]

Whatever record is standing then is sure to fall when all us militant SW fans get out there. What movie has ever held up to SW might on an opening weekend?

[JonathanLB]

I agree. There is no way AOTC will make $90 million in its opening weekend, I don't think. I do think it could make $80 million, though.

I think AOTC will still have about $110 million after its first four days, but we'll see. It will break the speed record that TPM set and in four days it will have done far better than Harry Potter did in its first four days ($96 million).

I figure AOTC opens with $35 million in its first day or so. Maybe $75 to $80 million over the weekend. $110 to $115 million total after those four days...

Episode III could beat Harry Potter's record, though.

I honestly think with the final Star Wars movie there is going to be this feeling among not just us Star Wars fans but among all movie fans that this is the final hurrah, the final showdown, the last chance to see a Star Wars film in theaters -- something very special. The turnout will be incredible. I think Episode III is our last, best hope to beat Titanic. Hehe. Maybe not the last chance, really, because of re-releases so actually I still think it's WHEN Titanic falls, not if. Just a matter of time. It WILL happen, the day when a Star Wars film passes $600.8 million. Could be ANH, could be AOTC, could be Episode III. Maybe even TPM. TPM would be the first film re-released if they all came back to theaters, 1-6, so it would probably benefit greatly from that... Not $170 million greatly, but like $50 to $100 million greatly maybe, hehe. Enough so that a few more re-releases... eh, it could happen. 0.5% chance :)

I will just be watching AOTC's box office with great interest, hehe, but mainly I will be doing my part by seeing it about 75 times. Thats my personal goal. The quest to 75. I will keep you guys updated as I go too, haha.

50 for TPM? Not good enough. Very satisfying, yeah, but this time I got 4 months and 10 days of summer, my own car, and still expendable income. This oughta be a cakewalk...

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Maybe not the last chance, really, because of re-releases so actually I still think it's WHEN Titanic falls, not if. Just a matter of time. It WILL happen, the day when a Star Wars film passes $600.8 million. Could be ANH, could be AOTC, could be Episode III. Maybe even TPM.

But of course by that time another movie could have broken Titanic's record already. That is, it doesn't have to be a Star Wars movie to make Titanic fall.

[Darth23]

75 x $6 = $450.

Damn John,

YOu could just bu[y] tickets for a couple of classes at a local school and treat the kids to a free showing for the same money.

Not only would you NOT be spending 150 hours in a movie theater for the same movie, you'd also possibly be helping to turn some young tikes into NEW Star Wars fans.

[BUFFJEDI]

come on jon,75 will not cut it .I promised 100 and i'm going to see it through(as long as AOTC)is worth seeing 100 times(I'm sure it will be.come on raise that number:)

[JonathanLB]

100 might be the goal for Episode III! I need to keep building up, haha. I think 100 would be exceptionally hard to make. Do you realize how many times that is?! Dang...

75 will be so hard... wow.

Darth, but then I'd lose the experience of getting to enjoy the film that many times! That would be no good. However, I like the idea of having kids see the film. There should be a charity project like that to raise money for kids to be able to see the film.

"But of course by that time another movie could have broken Titanic's record already. That is, it doesn't have to be a Star Wars movie to make Titanic fall."

Yup, very true :)

Still, Titanic's record right now remains rather unassailable!

[BUFFJEDI]

100 will be very hard(specially when your broke)But I said I would and by jimming crickets I'm going to (I hopeO_o ) but i'm sure I'll see it several times in the 1.00 theaters to make 100.I'll have to get my scanner fixed to show all the pretty ticket stubs:D
I really MUST BE CRAZY:x

[JMK]

you're just figuring that one out Buff? We've known it all along! :lol

[BUFFJEDI]

:lol :lol :lol