29.45 million friday for Harry

[foxdvd]

Looks like upper 80 then for the weekend.

[CMJ]

I think mid 80's is more likely...(84M or so).

[BUFFJEDI]

That maybe so BUT I have several little relatives that went and saw it last night and let me tell you ,they are some mad kids:D the most common comment I got about the potter movie was IT SUCKED,they were more Ticked off that the theater DIDN"T have the AOTC trailer:( They are comming along nicely)

[Darth23]

I say lower 80's. :p

It should at least come close to 30 again on Saturday - so it really SHOULD do 85 million - if that's possible.

Looks liek Monsters is taking a HUGE hit. 5.66 million - down 53%

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'd say 83-84 million and I still think TPM will keep the 5 day number there is no way it will make 10-15 on a Monday which is a school day.

[Champion of the Force]

So is that 29.45 million a new opening day record? (I keep forgetting how much TPM made on it's first day).

[foxdvd]

Yes, that is a new record.....Also, my brother and his wife went, and both felt it was the best movie this year so far...on top of that, they said the crowd was really into it...I might go tomorrow.

[Champion of the Force]

I doesn't open until November 29th down here. :\

From what I've read from the user reviews at IMDb, you will enjoy the film the most if you've already read the novel(s) but are not right into the 'hardcore' category.

Some hardcore readers are disappointed that certain parts got left out, whereas non-fans can feel a bit offput with its length and so on. If you're just a normal fan though you won't really miss the few things left out and the length won't really matter to you since you're familar with the material. :)

[Jedieb]

I just read an article on Compurserve that listed Friday's gross at a whopping $31.3M! It went on to say that Saturday may even be bigger. I guess we'll have to wait to see what the real numbers are until the dust settles, they may rise or fall a bit. It looks like a slew of TLW and TPM records are going to fall. At this rate HP will probably reach $100M in 4 four days, most certainly 5. So it's going to tie or break TPM's fastest to $100M mark.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'd say it will tie mostly because Monday and Tuesday are school days and I don't see it making much money then. Also I think it will fall heavily next weekend probably around 50% because most of the people who wanted to see it probably went this weekend, it will probally do around 40 somthing for the three days next week and maybe around 60 for the whole 5 days Thanksgiving weekend.

[Jedieb]

Those Thanksgiving days could be HUGE. You're going to have kids getting out of school early on Wed. and then staying at home both Thursday and Friday. This could really help to keep the grossed up and propel HP to the $200M quicker than anyone expects. It may be a tight race to the $200M record, but I think that TPM should hold on to both the $200M and $300M records. But $100M is in serious jeopardy me thinks.

[Jedi Master Carr]

My feeling is that most of the kids who want to see it will see it this weekend and I don't see a lot of repeats from it (maybe some but not enough to keep it from a huge drop which is going to happen whenever a movie opens this big) Still 60 million is not bad and will probably cross the 200 million mark the following weekend but it will encounter trouble after that from heavy competiton in the LOTR I think.

[Figrin D'an]

The other thing to remember (don't know if this was mentioned or not) is that TPM opened on a Wednesday, whereas HP opened on a Friday, which is usually a much better box office day. If HP had opened on a Wednesday, there is no way it would have even approached, much less broken, TPM's opening day record. (Just an opinion, but it seems to be a pretty solidly founded one.)

[Champion of the Force]

That's an interesting point Figrin. When TPM was released, everyone was skipping school and work to see it, but I don't think HP would have resulted in similar activites as much if it had been released on a Wednesday.

Anyways, I'm half expecting Jon to march into this thread and proclaim that HP has set the new record thanks to the new Ep. 2 trailer being attached to the film. :)

[JMK]

I think TPM will hang on by the skin of its teeth. But man it's going to be a close one!

[Jedieb]

Part of me hates writing this...

I was at Waldenbooks tonight buying the 3-PO Masterpiece Edition set which includes the book C-3PO: Tales of the Golden Droid and an exclusive 12" figure. BTW, the book is great because you get a lot of background info on SW scripts, character development, etc.) But I digress, I had to go through some hoops to get the book because it was sitting in the storeroom and hadn't been displayed yet. You see these are over a year old and are being clearanced out at $19.99. An incredible bargain considering they originally sold for $75. This $55 dollar difference is what prompted my cheap ass to go down to the store to get one. While the salesperson was ringing it up the discussion naturally turned to Star Wars and she said the following;

"It's funny but my son asked me to take him to see Harry Potter. And it wasn't even because he wanted to see it that much. He kept saying, "Mom, it has the Star Wars trailer! The Star Wars trailer!"

I swear I'm not making this up. So the Mystery trailer certainly didn't hurt HP. I don't think it contributed millions, but it certainly got some SW fans into to see a movie they might not have wanted to see otherwise. Ewww, I feel kinda dirty... ;)

[JMK]

Don't you mean the Forbidden Love trailer? Anything Star Wars makes anything else better! :)

[Jedieb]

D'OH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm sooooooo ashamed!!!!!! May the SW gods please forgive me!!!!!

[Darth23]

So the Star Wars trailer probably put it over the top. :p

I don't think I'd trust Compuserve to give me Box Office data. They could be including premiere and preview showings - possibly.

I think it would be pretty hard for ShowBizData to screw up the Friday number.

I was in the Mall early Saturday afternoon and there were no lines. It was 1:00 and there were shows at 12:30, 1:00 and 1:30. I guess I could have hung around until just before 1:30.

I guesss we'll see what the the weekend numbers look like tomorrow. anpther 30 million dollar day would be MOST impressive.

[Jedieb]

I'd trust Showbiz as well. It's just unsual that to see a media outlet spitting out such a different number. Well, okay maybe it's not that unusual. I just wonder how many other newspapers or local news outlets will pick up that $31.3 figure and use it. It's got to be coming from somewhere.

[Jedi Master Carr]

There were similar numbers for TPM that came out saying it was going to make x when it made y, so it really doesn't surprise me.Hey Darth if the theaters weren't crowed I wonder if HP might take a hit the rest of the weekend maybe not real bad but something like 29, 24, 22 which would still put at 75 million an incredible number but maybe a lot of people just went out the first night.

[Darth23]

I'm usually not in the Mall that early on Saturday - so I don't really know it that was typical. The parking lot near the movie theater was fairly full, but not as full as early evening, say 5:00 - 9:00. Nothing was sold out - again I don't knwo if there are usually sell-outs so early.

[JonathanLB]

Hehe, you are right. I do have to come into this thread and make a few comments.

First, yes HP was huge as I thought it probably would be first weekend, kinda depressing, but that's another issue.

Look at the grosses here, though, and you'll see why I just have to make this point:

TPM: $28.5 million opening day.
HP: $29.45 million opening day.

Less than a $1 million difference. So do I think the Forbidden Love trailer pushed it over? Of course I do. That's $0.95 million. I think the Episode II trailer easily contributed that. If you had 200,000 Star Wars fans who went to theaters to see it, that would be enough money to make the difference. I am not even saying, actually, that it was JUST Star Wars fans who went with that intention but that "Star Wars fans in general" pushed HP over TPM. So yes, we are responsible for this, hehe.

I don't think there is reason to be too upset, though.

Here are some other facts you have to consider quite seriously (and this should start to make you wonder just what AOTC can do):

HP only averaged $8,000 per theater compared to $9,600 per theater for TPM on opening day. HP benefitted from 700 more theaters and 2,000 more screens! That's a massive difference, yet it barely managed to break TPM's record despite having 33% more screens to play on. 2,000 is 33% of 6,000... Add that 33% on and you got 8,000 screens.

If HP had been able to average what TPM did, it would have made far more on opening day. Also, the ticket prices when TPM came out were way lower. A good 15% lower, actually. The last two years have seen incredible ticket price inflation, which is a good thing for Episode II, but it must be seen as a bad thing for TPM, haha. I mean, that film would never have lost these records to POTA and Mummy Returns if not for inflation. Not to mention that the low number of theaters TPM had didn't give it a good chance to set ANY opening records, yet it did so anyway. It missed LW's record, but smashed most every other one and has since lost most every other one.

I say congratulations to the makers of Harry Potter, but to me this serves as some small indicator of AOTC's opening power.

I mean, wow, this could be a frickin' monster. TPM was massive, but because of ticket price inflation and maybe even more screens for AOTC (we shall see), Episode II could strike harder at first (may not have as good of staying power but that is debatable -- I think it'll have about equal or ever so slightly better).

I think you are looking at something like:

Thursday: $35 million
Friday: $24 million
Saturday: $28 million
Sunday: $26 million

So for the three day opening, I think AOTC will make $78 million, probably short of the Harry Potter record, and for four days I think it will blast to $112 million, the fastest ever ascent to $100 million and the most after four days for any film ever released.

Then, thank god, yet again we have the advantage of an awesome holiday weekend as the second weekend. No other company will significantly challenge AOTC on that weekend, leaving it to fall no more than 25% from its $78 million opening. You're looking at $200 million in 10 to 11 days -- a new record, beating TPM's 13 days.

This is just my projection, so you see I am not even saying that AOTC will make as much in its opening three day weekend as Harry Potter will (has if you read this Monday, hehe). That's because of the Thursday opening, though. That Thursday number won't be passed for, ha, many years. Not on a non-holiday anyway. Same with TPM's opening Wednesday (unless Episode III comes out then).

As for Harry Potter, yeah $85 million in three days it looks like. It will tie TPM's five-day mark I would say.

There is a chance, though... if it makes $26 million Saturday, so a tiny fall, and makes $20 million Sunday, that is $76 million for three days. Frickin' AWESOME gross, but that could mean it would be until Wednesday -- the 6th day -- that HP crosses $100...

I'm just presenting that as an outside possibility, though unlikely.

[Champion of the Force]

According to Box Office Guru, HP pulled in $31.65 million on Friday, not $29.45 million. Apparently those figures came in from Warner Bros itself.

[Dutchy]

Then, thank god, yet again we have the advantage of an awesome holiday weekend as the second weekend. No other company will significantly challenge AOTC on that weekend, leaving it to fall no more than 25% from its $78 million opening. You're looking at $200 million in 10 to 11 days -- a new record, beating TPM's 13 days.

I think HP will definitely break TPM's $200M record. It might set it at 9 days, it has a fair chance at 10 days and 11 days is for sure, I think. Or at least TPM's 13 days is for very sure.

So AOTC will break HP's $200M record, not TPM's.

[Darth23]

According to Box Office Guru, HP pulled in $31.65 million on Friday, not $29.45 million. Apparently those figures came in from Warner Bros itself.

Ywah, ShowBizData has changed their Friday number (at least by default. The Saturday figure and total gross number indicate that HP mad over 30 million on Friday.

I read where several other studios thought the final total would be reduced to 80 something million - it will be interesting to see the final numbers.

[Dutchy]

According to Boxofficeguru HP's final Friday gross was $32.3M. Saturday was $33.5M and Sunday $24.4M.

[Darth23]

According to Entertainment Data, and ShowBIzData.com, HP grossed 90.29 million.

Still a major number for a non-holiday weekend.

[Mu Satach]

You know from all the hype and the tickets selling out like mad I was expecting something more (line wise) when I got to the theater... there were bigger lines for the Blair Snitch project. :x

[Jedieb]

It's a curious thing, but I didn't spot huge lines outside of theaters also. I really think the massive numbers of screens helped get people into seats instead of turning them away or forcing them to see something else instead of HP.