Harry Potter Boxoffice

[Jedi Master Carr]

I figured it was time to start the biggest match of the year and here is the first swing. This is an AP article that says that Harry Potter will sink Titanic?

Harry Potter (news - web sites) could sink the Titanic at the box office.

The tale of the boy wizard was eagerly devoured by millions of readers around the globe in 46 languages. It may now work the same magic at the movies and topple the blockbuster disaster epic ``Titanic,'' which set a world record when it grossed $1.8 billion.

``Pottermania is hitting the screens,'' said a spokeswoman for the British cinema chain Odeon, which is devoting almost half its screens to ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone'' when it is released Nov. 16.

Odeon received 20,000 ticket inquiries from fervent fans before the box office even opened.

``It could be a world breaker,'' she told Reuters. ``We have dedicated 225 of our 599 screens to it. That is more than for 'Titanic.'''

Industry experts believe the $125 million Hollywood film about the bespectacled boy wizard will give a major boost to AOL Time Warner Inc.'s Warner Bros. film division.

Film journalist Marshall Julius, reflecting on the movie that is to be given its world premiere in London Sunday, said: ``It is entirely possible that this will become the biggest-grossing film ever.''

The publishers of the four J.K. Rowling (news - web sites) classics expect the film to add another million copies to book sales when it is launched.

``This will give the books mass appeal and introduce them to a whole new range of readers,'' a spokesman for Bloomsbury Publishing Plc told Reuters.

But not everyone is happy with the Potter bonanza.

A marketing deal with Coca-Cola Co. has sparked an angry reaction from die-hard Potter fans.

The Atlanta-based multinational has agreed with Rowling to finance a three-year campaign to encourage children to read.

But that is not enough to satisfy Michael Jacobson, executive director of a health advocacy group called the Center for Science in the Public Interest and founder of the SaveHarry.com Web site.

Urging fans to send a letter of protest to author Rowling, Jacobson complained, ``The bottom line is that an adored literary phenomenon is being put to work to sell more junk food.''

Now I think Harry Potter will do very well at the box office probably 200-250, 700 WW it will not approach Titanic because partly LOTR which will hurt it greatly. Actually I think LOTR has the best shot unitl EP 2 next may. LOTR is a big film opening in the slowest time of the year and it looks to have weak competition besides ALI and Oceans 11 so it could do it, but I doubt it will. It should make about 270-300 though and has a outside chance at 300-400.

[Darth23]

Timing wise, more top 20 movies have been released on November than December (just TItanic). But then LOTR has the potential to be a phenomenon like Titanic.

I can't see Harry Potter doing any better than 250 million. I just don't see it happening. It's second week will be the real key. Since it's not opening in the summer it can't make as much from weekday showings,so it will need big weekends and alsmost no drop offs if it's going to chalenge the big boys. It will aso hae a lot more matinee and kid tickets, so repeat viewing will be really important also.

--

That whole marketing protest thing seems a little silly to me. I mean, I basically hate merchandising in general, but these book people seem to act like HP isn't already a product. Why release it as a 20 dollar hardback first, rather than a paperback? To make more money. I don't think Rowlings has much control over the marketing, I believe she mostly signed that away withthe book rights (if she had it - the publisher might actually onw that).

In general, I think they're doing a lot less merchandising what most recent kids movies, but they do need to make some money, to get these films made. The studio is coughing up over 100 million bucks and there's no guarantee that the movie will make a profit, so merchandising lessens their risk.

[darth_mcbain]

The bottom line is that an adored literary phenomenon is being put to work to sell more junk food.

That is just ridiculous. Hey, if you want the movie to do well, you have to hype it. If you want to hype the movie, someone's gotta flip the bill. If Coca-Cola is flipping the bill, don't they have a right to do a little ad placement for their product? I don't know - just sounds like whoever said this is taking themselves a little too seriously.

Anyway, I don't think HP will be able to topple Titanic. True, it has the definite multiple-viewing potential for die-hard fans, but I just don't get the feeling that it will last nearly long enough to compete with Titanic. I could see it doing between 250 and 300 million. Only time will tell.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree about the marketing aspect of the film it silly to even criticize it. By the way you don't hear LOTR fans saying this, although the marketing of the film hasn't begun yet to the degree that Harry Potter has. And I agree with both of you that I don't see HP beating Titanic, sure it has an outside chance at 300 million but that is it, another thing to consider is it has a running time of 2 hours and half which is long for a children's movie. This could hurt it a little which is different from LOTR which will have the same running time it won't really hurt that film at all.

[imported_QuiGonJ]

Actually, my understanding is there is no product placement in the film, and Coke can't use footage from the film in ads.

As for the books, ::shrug::, how is this different from the hardcover Star Wars books?

I'm sure both HP and LOTR will do well, and as AOLTW is distributing both, they will be happy with the results since they are both supposed to be really good.

[Darth23]

There were sone online LOTR fans trashing TPM for the merchandising back in 1999. they were pretty sure that a LOTR movie wouldn't to that tacky stuff.

I've definitely seen a lot of more upscale LOTR marketing, but there are action figures and stuff also.

[Champion of the Force]

Actually, my understanding is there is no product placement in the film, and Coke can't use footage from the film in ads.
Right on Qui - I believe that was a very particular point when the deal with Coca-Cola was signed. They want to keep the film as close to the novel as possible, so having Harry sipping Coke in between classes or Neville having a Coca-Cola poster in his room wouldn't look pretty good (wizards wouldn't drink a Muggle drink anyway).

I can't see it breaking Titanic either. IMHO LOTR will bring in enough competition to prevent HP dominating for long enough to pull in that sort of money. The film will do well, but not THAT well. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

With Monsters INC taking in 60 something at the box office who here doubts that Harry Potter will take in more. First the hype is huge so people will go out and see it, there is already a fan base to see it, and third rumor has it that Trailer A will be attached to it. Now I see Harry Potter taking in somewhere between 65-73 million for that weekend, probably closer to 65. Now LOTR is a different story it opens on a Wed and has probably no chance at the weekend record but will probably top 100 for the 5 day period taking in between 60-68 for the weekend.

[foxdvd]

It can not take Titanic...because with Titanic...my parents, older people in my family...people in their 60's and 70's who NEVER go to movies, and still do not go to movies, went to see Titanic. These same people go "Harry who?" when I talk about the Harry Potter movie. If you want to make near 2 billion WW you have to have the teens, middle aged, AND older population to go...and then at least 1 of those groups to go back and back again.


TPM had kids, teens and young to middle aged adults go to it, and then had a lot repeat business with the kids/teens groups...which is why it made so much money. Of course, because it did have many get in at reduced rates of free for some of the younger kids, it was hurt a bit in its numbers...


Titanic had teens, young, middle and older adults...and each of these groups had large numbers going back, with the teens really going back over and over again. Each repeat for it was added money, because there were not a lot of kids going, so not as many reduced or free tickets given out as with a movie like Shrek or even TPM would have to give.


If the movie is as good as the early reviews say it is..(I hear some top critics saying it is just pure gold...and will be huge) it might do 300-350...might...and then MAYBE 700-800 WW..but that is ONLY if it is as good as they say it is...but something in me says a lot of the early reviews are fake...I will wait till top names see it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with you Fox I don't why people are saying Harry Potter will destroy it. Really I think LOTR has a better chance but it is very remote and its more likely to fall somewhere in the 250-400 range with harry potter 200-350 range.

[Darth23]

"As for the books, ::shrug::, how is this different from the hardcover Star Wars books? "

Well the FIRST Star Wars books came out on paperback. Plus, there were kids versions available chaper than the TPM hardcover novel. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Now that we know that Trailer A will be attacked to HP does anybody think this will affect the gross for it on the opening weekend. I think it will to some degree I have a feeling that HP will do more than 70 in the first 3 days where if the trailer had not been attached it would have done 60-65. What does everybody else think?

[JMK]

I don't think the trailer will help the gross much. Is there anyone who doesn't think HP was going to sell out anyway? Everyone there will just see the trailer as a bonus. Maybe it will help its 2nd week when the SW fans get to get out and see it instead of all the Potter fans.

[Jedieb]

I know that I had no real interest in seeing HP on the big screen. But if it's the only film playing the next trailer then I'll probably see it at some point. So the trailer is going to have some impact, but not that much. I'd say somewhere between $1-2M, maybe less. It is the second trailer after all and it'll eventually be on the net and TV so many will just wait it out instead of going to see a movie they never intended to see.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here is another article I just read about HP

Tickets to ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone'' already are vanishing a week before the movie debuts.

Although most box-office outlets decline to disclose totals, they said the tickets were selling faster than any other film this year. In London, theaters have already sold nearly 500,000 advance tickets.

Kim Holt, spokeswoman for Movietickets.com, said the Potter sales were already five times higher than the company's previous recordholder, ``Pearl Harbor.''

``It's at a historic level,'' she said.

The $125 million movie, about a mistreated orphan who embarks on an adventure after learning he has magical powers, is set to open Nov. 16. Theaters began selling advance opening-weekend tickets on Nov. 2.

All of the scheduled viewings are filling up fast, according to Rich King, spokesman for AMC Theatres, which has 2,792 screens in the United States.

``Most advance tickets are bought in pairs, and in this case every time somebody buys tickets it's four to five tickets. That tells us that a whole lot of families are planning to attend the first weekend together,'' King said.

Sales this early are unusual, he added.

``Most advance ticket sales usually peak two to three days before the show,'' he said. ``It's never anything like this.''

Fandango.com, another online ticket distributor, has been swamped with requests since announcing it has seats available. Fandango spokesman John Singh said ``Harry Potter (news - web sites)'' had already sold far more advance tickets than either ``The Mummy Returns'' or ``Pearl Harbor,'' but he would not discuss specific numbers.

Intertops, the Internet sports betting site, set 11-to-25 odds that ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone'' will break the $72.1 million three-day, opening-weekend box-office record set by ``Jurassic Park: The Lost World'' in 1997. It also set 1-to-2 odds that the film will break or tie the record for fastest to earn $100 million (five days, set by ``Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace'' in 1999).

Although some fans for the ``Star Wars'' prequel began camping out on the sidewalk for days before it debuted, the increasing availability of advance ticket purchases online and over the telephone has made that unnecessary.

Few theater chains have reported any sidewalk squatters for ``Harry Potter.''

``Having the opportunity to buy tickets in the comfort of your own home is being very well received. We're having a great turnout, and fans know they're guaranteed a spot on opening day,'' said Jennifer Maguire Hanson, spokeswoman for National Amusements Inc., which owns 1,100 screens.

Its pretty interesting and I also think it has a chance at knocking off The Lost World, I'd say it makes between 70-75 opening weekend, as far as the five days that won't be as easy because most kids go to school that monday and Tuesday so it won't break that record, I guess it could tie it but if it made 75 million for the weekend it would be difficult for it to make 25 million on two school days so it could fall several million there.

[Darth23]

Does the article expect parents and their kids to be camping otu outside of movie theaters?


At THIS time of year? :p

So does a huge opening mean worse legs and higher drop offs? What if almost everyone who wants to see it does so in the first 2 or 3 weeks?

Next Friday's numbers should be interesting. I wonder when we'll get a screen count.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I read the screen count was going to be at about 4000 theaters or screens I'm not sure which. I think the higher it opens it will definetly have some drop off but there is always word of mouth which killed POTA which opened big. Luckily for HP its only real competion is LOTR in Dec because Spy Game and Black Knight are really after different audiences. I still think HP will make 70-75 opening weekend and then take in around 230 for the year (maybe a little more depending on word of mouth) and probably make around 600 or 700 world wide.

[Darth23]

I heard that 4000 screen number. I don't believe it. I think it will be 3400+, probably the widest opening ever, but I think that if a movie could open in 4000 theaters we would have seen a few 3800 and 3900 releases this summer.

Shek hit 3700 for a few weeks, I THINK that's the most ever.

Looks like 75-80 million for three days is at least a theoretical possibility, according to Lee's Movie info. Harryp potter could take the opening weekend record AND TPM's single day record.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Question is that counting England though? I know they are opening in England at the same time as the United States. That could explain that high number. I think it will break several records probably the biggest weekend, maybe the single day but it won't break the fast to 100 because of the fact that two school days follow the weekend which makes that possibility unlikely. So when do we want to start jockey bets on what Harry Potter will make opening weekend and opening day. I'd say it makes 73 for the weekend, and then 24 opening day, but Saturday will be its biggest with a haul of 27 million just slightly falling short of TPM's record.

[Darth23]

I've given in to peer pressure and revised my prediction for Harry Potter upwards:

Weekend - $71.6 million :p

Total Gross - $250.6 million

I justthink the number of theaters won't increase the weekend take by that much. More theaters means it's harder to get 20k per theater.

(I'm prolly a bit biased, tho).

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with you on the total gross completely I don't see it making too much more than 250, though I guess it could. And I think it will defintely make more than 70 opening weekend and break POTA record not a big surprise there. But the question is will it take the TLW or TPM's records, I' d say maybe to the first, but no to the second, I can't see it making more than 28 million on one day and I don't see it making 100 million in faster than 5 days, Monday and Tuesday are school days which will hurt that easily.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Anybody see Lee site he saying it will make 80 million for the 3 days. But most critics are calling it a disapointment (very SW like if you ask me) except Ebert who gave it 4 stars. I think the numbers are going too high though like TPM. I remember when people were saying it was going to make 140 million in 5 days that was just nuts. People are saying the same thing here to some degree and I think the number will be lower probably around 75 for the weekend which would still be an incredible number.

Now as far as the movie, I doubt I am going this weekend, I think I will wait to Thanksgiving weekend when I will have less to do and the theaters won't be so crowded.

[Jedieb]

I would be really surprised to see HP go over $75M. I just don't see it averaging over $25M a day, especially with all of the matinees and children's tickets.
HP $72.5

[Dutchy]

Just take a look at the Top 10 all time grossing movies and you'll see that it's mostly out-of-the-blue movies that make 300M+, so I don't understand why they give HP and LOTR a chance to beat Titanic.

[Jedi Master Carr]

What do you mean out of the blue movies? Most of the 10 are filled with either films that had built up hype ID4, Titantic to a certain extent based on a novel JP and Forest Gump, are SW sequels TPM, ROTJ, or a Disney Animated film The Lion King. So really the only films that came out of the blue were the Sixth Sense, ET, and ANH but if either one of the later came out today they would have just the same amount of hype as HP. Its not that I think they have a chance, I doubt HP does and LOTR has a slim chance because its based on one of the most popular novels of all time and could get enough repeats to get up at least past 300 so its go a chance at least.

[Jedieb]

Dutchy has a pretty good point. Now many of the films to reach the top 10 all time list had a lot of hype and expactations. But most of the films that eventually took the top spot did kind of come out of the blue. No one expected JAWS to gross as much as it did and become the biggest film of all time. No one expected ANH to stay in some theaters for an entire year and set record after record. A few insiders may have felt they had something special on their hands, but they would have been just as surprised if ANH had grossed HALF as much as it did. People thought ET would be a hit, but NO ONE expected it to topple Star Wars. And while some thought that Titanic had an outside chance of breaking EVEN, no one stood up and said; "This film is going to so huge it's going to gross $600M!" They would have been ridiculed. I think you can make the top 10 with a lot of hype and expectations, but you've got to come out of nowhere and become a phenomenon to take the TOP spot. At least that's the way it's worked out recently.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Still some of the films didn't come out of nowhere like I said and if I had to make a comparrison HP and LOTR could be similar to Jurassic Park. JP was a huge phenominon and most people knew it was going to be big before it opened because the novel was hugely popular plus it had dinosaurs in it so it didn't really surprise too many people that it did what it did. Now HP is similar to JP and might make a similar amount of money, (I'd say a little less maybe 250-280 but I could be wrong myself) Now LOTR is different I think it is actually more like Titantic. Most people assume that it will make money maybe even a profit but there is still a chance that it could flop and ruin New Line much like there was a chance Titantic could flop and at least hurt the two studios pushing it. In that sense LOTR is really a better shot at taking Titanitc's crown because if does do it will really come out of know where because none of the anayalists are expecting. Everybody is already sayng (USA Today, ET, Entertainment Weekly, etc) that HP will beat LOTR easily and even on this board there are a good many that would pick HP. Even myself if LOTR went on to make 600+ I would be hugely surprised. I just wouldn't expect, so actually maybe Dutchy is right after all except that LOTR doesn't fit the Hype profile of other films because nobody expects it ot make more than 200 million.

[Jedieb]

That's a pretty solid argument JMC. I agree with you. HP is very similiar to JP and could produce like B.O. results. I doubt we'll see as much "This could be the biggest film ever!" hoopla for LOTR as we've seen for HP. So it could possibly surprise us all and go over $400M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know it really makes sense in that way I guess on this boards there are so many of siked to see it that we don't realize the press don't see it that way they are wild about Harry and aren't even thinking about LOTR. I guess that might change in December a little. Still EW did put them on the magzine covers but in the article they argue that HP will beat it and that there is a chance LOTR will flop badly. I was surprised about that they semed to be rooting for HP much like the rest of the media much like JP to a degree.

[JonathanLB]

Anyone suggesting that Harry Potter has a chance to top Titanic might as well right an article right now saying that Episode II will crush the boat.

Clearly Star Wars is ten times more popular than Harry Potter and if that stupid movie had ANY chance of beating Titanic, then Episode II would be an absolute lock.

Still, the thread says LOTR vs. Harry Potter.

As much as we all would like to think LOTR has a chance, if you really think there is even a snowballs chance in hell of LOTR beating LOTR you are kidding yourself. There is no way it will happen.

I wish that stupid Potter movie would bomb and LOTR would kick its lame butt because the LOTR books rule and UNLIKE J. K. Rowling, Tolkien actually knows (or knew) how to write! Rowling could benefit from reading a few grammar books and going back to school. As good of a storyteller as she may be, she's a terrible writer. Still, any author would kill for her success and few will ever achieve it. Nobody would say that great writing means millions of dollars or that millions of dollars automatically makes great writing, though. She is a good storyteller I assume, although what I read was just too poorly written for me to continue. I'm very nitpicky about my books and I prefer them to be well-written as Michael Crichton books are or any number of other authors who are successful and great writers. Crichton has a clear command of the English language and I can guarantee that in his books you will find very few flaws with regard to grammar and punctuation and whatnot. Rowling simply writes in this annoying conversationalist tone that absolutely drives me crazy. I've rarely ever seen a male author do that, thank god.

Anyway, Variety says Harry Potter will make $25 to $30 million on its opening Friday based on the numbers they have collected throughout the day. We'll see how close it comes to that estimate, but it could make even $85 million in THREE days. That would be incredible. LOTR has no hope of coming near that. Maybe $45 to $55 million in a weekend, no more.

Potter is probably going to make $275 to $325 million, hopefully no more, but LOTR would be lucky for $200 million.

[Champion of the Force]

if you really think there is even a snowballs chance in hell of LOTR beating LOTR you are kidding yourself.
.. and on the 16th day of the 11th month, Jonathan L. Bowen decreed that the film known as Lord of the Rings would have no chance whatsoever of surpassing the the boxoffice achivements of the film known as Lord of the Rings. :mischief

And so it was written. :lol

[Jedieb]

Picking on someone for making typos is cruel and unfair. I say that as someone who makes more errors in their posts than I monkey typing on a keyboard affter taking a hit of acid. But damn if that didn't make me LOL. :lol (Ipurposely left in some of my original typos to show just how bad I can be.) :)

[Champion of the Force]

Picking on someone for making typos is cruel and unfair.
True, but considering the point Jon was trying to make, making such a grave error really looked funny. :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am hoping he was tired when he made that mistake but anyway, I think LOTR will surprise people and I still think it will be the #1 movie of the year but this is just my opinion. I think this becasue there is no major movie coming out after it except Ali which is an Oscar film which will have a different audience. I think LOTR will open at about 60-70 for the 5 day weekend, it opens on wed which is pretty good for a nearly 3 hour film. Then I think Word of mouth will get out and it will do well throughout the early part of 2002 and its gross will end up somewhere between 275-350 probably closer to the lower end, it may even get some Oscar consideration if the critics love it which would help it even more.

[Jedieb]

All those crazy statements I made about HP not grossing over $75M were TYPOS. I meant to say $85M. And that not "averaging $25M a day" should have read $35M. Yeah, that's the ticket... :rolleyes

[Darth23]

hee hee


Would you believe 93.5 million bucks for the weekend? :eek

Friday - 29.45
Saturday - 32.88
Sunday - 31.17

:eek :eek :eek

So it beat TPM's single day record 3 times.

300 million+ seems like a good bet, unless it sucked up a lot of its total with the opening. I would think ti woudl do very well for Thanksgiving.

Monsters Inc. managed 23 MILLION - off 49%.


Unfortunately, one result of this will be even more super ultra wide releases.

[Jedieb]

Wow, those grosses are freakish. I don't see how either AOTC or EP3 can top those unless Lucas lightens up on his ticket sales demands or stops being so picky about how many screens he'll allow to show SW films. Didn't HP open on over 4,000 screens or some other obscene number?

[Jedieb]

3,672 theaters
8,200 screens

Those are the numbers I just saw. I'm still surprised that HP was able to shatter TLW's record so easily. Even if the official numbers did below $90 this is still an amazing opening. The $100M is sure to fall, $200M is in jeopardy because of the Thanksgiving weekend. With decent holds we'll probably see it reach $300M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still think it will take a 50% hit. Lets say the gross is 90, if it makes 45 for the 3 days next weekend and then another 15-20 for Wed and Thurs that would be 60-65 that is still good but I find it hard to believe that most of the same people will go back to see it again and also there aren't too many more people who want to see it I would think. Fantasies films have small appeal, especially the older crowd and 20-35 year old who I don't see standing in line for this movie. So that means families went to see it for the most part. Sure it will probably break 300 and I think it will make now 330-340 no more than that because there will be a lot of people who just will never see it. As far as EP2 or Ep 3 beating this who knows, I think it will take back the individual record and at least make 100 in 4 days. Now realize that this movie is also a product of inflation the avg price of a movie has went up over a dollar in the last 3 years that make a huge difference. I bet if HP's was released under the the prices 3 years ago the numbers would be closer to TPM maybe the exact number have to see how many tickets it sold. That is only reason why AOTC has a chance because of inflation I'd say it makes 80 at least next summer and has a decent chance of overtaking I'd say 50-50 at this point.

[foxdvd]

looks like that 31 million Friday was right....so that is like 31 friday, 32 Saturday, and 29 Sunday, though I feel it will be around 27 for Sunday...

The movie was good, not great, but really good.

[Jedieb]

Let me ask you this fox, was it Titanic good? I mean, did it seem good enough to bring in older people? Did it look good enough that a lot of the kids in the theater would come back to see it again? Any applause at the end?

[foxdvd]

I read the first book and felt while it was defiantly childish in its tone and writing, that it was still a great story. I have since read the next two books, and to my dismay, have become a fan. The characters really grow on you.

I would rate the movie a high 3.5 out of 4 stars. While I may not be the biggest fan of Titanic, when I saw it is theaters I could tell it was something special. This movie does not have that final magical step that movies like Titanic, ET or Star Wars could cast. While anyone could pick at flaws in any of the three above movies, like the sometimes amateurish acting in ET, or the heavy-handed romance in Titanic, there was always something special in these movies that would capture the average American, young and old.

This movie does not have that magic. That being said, the kids in the audience just ate it up. There were multiple moments of laughter, screams, and yes even applause after the movie was over. I heard kids asking their parents to go again, and indeed some got back into line as we were leaving.

Cinemascore had a rating for it overall of an A…but those under 21 gave it an A+. Personally, I feel it is going to be huge, but die off in the mid to upper 300 range. Kids are going to drag their parents back a few times, but there is not going to be a big enough desire for adults to want to go back to make it an all-time great. Also, really young kids just are not going to like the slow pace.

[Champion of the Force]

Also, really young kids just are not going to like the slow pace.
Some critics have made mention of that too - that the film could have benefited from a bit more trimming up.

I won't be able to see it until Nov. 29th, so I can't pass my own judgement on the film yet (and by the time I can everyone will have moved on to the next big thing >_<), but from what I've been reading Columbus and co. have gone for width (getting as many events from the novel into the film as possible) as opposed to depth. I'm still looking forward to it regardless. :)

[Darth23]

"ooks like that 31 million Friday was right....so that is like 31 friday, 32 Saturday, and 29 Sunday, Though I feel it will be around 27 for Sunday... The movie was good, not great, but really good."

Maybe Showbizdata WAS wrong abotu Friday's total. :p

[Dutchy]

93.5M! Holy cow! That's truly amazing. I wonder if it's going to set the $100M record at 4 days.

I'm curious how big the Thanksgiving days will be. They could be VERY big...


LOTR has no hope of coming near that. Maybe $45 to $55 million in a weekend, no more.

I've read that a couple of times and I don't quite understand why the expectations for LOTR are so relatively low. I mean, it's an highly anticipated movie, right? Why shouldn't it be able to gross an HP-like opening?

Anyone?

[CMJ]

I don't know that anything can outgross this for awhile...simply astounding. My jaw has been on the floor since yesterday when I saw the weekend estimates....

[Jedieb]

I think LOTR will be considered by many to be a better film than HP, but I just don't see LOTR generating the same kind of hype that HP has. You've got people talking about HP at work today all over the country. It's become an "event." And the stories you hear are abot kids going to see the movies with their parents and grandparents. Kids including a HP screening as part of their birthday parties. I think LOTR skews a bit older so I don't see this happening. But who knows, we've seen so many records broken this year that LOTR could end up opening with$70M or $80M. I was stunned to see the top opening weekends on the Today Show this morning and not see TPM even in the top 5. The top 5 opening weekend grosses included 4 movies from this year; HP, TMR, POTA, and I think I saw RH2 on there. Has any other year done this? Records are falling left and right. It'll be interesting to see tomorrow's numbers so we can see what kind of a drop the weekdays will bring.

[Dutchy]

According to Boxofficeguru HP's final weekend gross is $90,294,621.

Amazing... a 90M+ normal 3-day weekend opening...

[Jedi Master Carr]

I just read this on the force.net, its from Entertainment Weekly
So, is anyone surprised?
Obliterating all box office records imaginable, ''Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone'' exploded into theaters this weekend, grossing an absolutely unheard-of $93.5 million, according to Warner Bros. studio estimates. The fervently anticipated fantasy reached new highs for best opening-day gross ($31.3 million); best opening-weekend gross; and best Friday, Saturday, and Sunday earnings.

Obviously, fanaticism for the Potter franchise is matched only by that for any ''Star Wars'' film (which may even pale by comparison). The film blanketed the country, premiering on 8,200 screens in 3,672 theaters, and still boasting an incredible $25,463 per-theater average. The previous overall record-holder was 1997's ''The Lost World: Jurassic Park,'' which debuted with $72.1 million in its first three days. More impressively, ''Harry Potter'' even outgrossed ''Lost World's'' four-day $90.1 million take, requiring one day fewer to do it. The next benchmark to break? Fastest film to $100 million.

''Star Wars: Episode I--The Phantom Menace'' reached that milestone in five days. ''Harry'' will try to do it in four. Whether or not that will happen depends on the final weekend numbers. If ''Harry Potter'' in fact earned $93.5 million, then a $6.5 million Monday is simple. But if, as rival studios predict, the final weekend tally is more like $89 million, then ''Harry'' might not be able to conjure up enough cash.

Did I read this right here is the quote I am talking about

Obviously, fanaticism for the Potter franchise is matched only by that for any ''Star Wars'' film (which may even pale by comparison).
Does Entertainment Weekly think that SW has less fans than HP?
If so it shows how far EW has fallen into being Anti-SW, come on HP is new and most of its fans are just lets check back in 20 yrs and then see how popular it is. Now I wouldn't be as upset with this if it was LOTR but HP. They are forgetting that SW has opened during the middle of the week and HP opened on a Friday I think there is a big difference there.

[Jedieb]

Obviously, fanaticism for the Potter franchise is matched only by that for any ''Star Wars'' film (which may even pale by comparison).

Was there even a reason to keep reading after that sentence? The only way that sentence could be accurate is if HP goes on to gross 1.2 Billion domestically. Then they can say SW "pale(s) by comparison." Again, people get paid to write this crap? Couldn't the writer make their point without being silly?

[Darth23]

6.64 million on Monday - so HP might tie TPM for fastest to 100 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is quite a fall it made 24 on Sunday so that means it fell about 75%. Man that is quite a drop. I thought it would because Monday is a school day for most kids, so at least HP won't completely take away the 100 million record.

[JonathanLB]

Hahahaha. YES!!!!

This is definitely a great sign. TPM has held its record still!! Phew. Man was I worried. Those are the records I happen to like very much. Fastest to $100 million, $150 million, $200 million, $250 million, $300 million, $350 million...

Also, Potter has NO chance of statistically tying TPM's mark now. Why you ask? Because TPM had $105 million in 5 days. Potter can, at best, have $102 million so TPM STILL holds the record -- it will not be a tie other than just the sheer "number of days," but tie-breaker goes to the film with the most money after five days, which is TPM still. :) 700 less theaters, lower ticket prices, 2000 less screens? No problem.

No but honestly, $6 million on Monday is so pathetic! Haha. I never thought it would fall so badly. Even the Lost World made about that much on its first non-weekend, non-holiday day (Tuesday).

This reps a fall of 75% from its Sunday gross whereas TPM fell only 50%. So not only does TPM have its 5 day record, but it still has the all time highest non-holiday Monday gross in the history of the box office with $10.9 million.

That Monday was indeed something special. It was the second major sign that TPM was going to keep rolling. First being the Sunday estimate being LOWER than the actual. Potters was $3 million higher.

Titanic levels? No. This film has no steam now, it might as well be over. It'll make $300 million probably. No more.

[Champion of the Force]

No but honestly, $6 million on Monday is so pathetic!
Because all the little kiddies are in school. :D

[Jedieb]

That's much worse than TPM's first Monday. It certainly doesn't bode well for a run to $400M. It may even fall short of $100M tomorrow. It should still pick up on Thursday and Friday because of the hollidays, but it doesn't look like kids are still skipping school to go see HP.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So it needs what 3.5 million to tie? Even if it does tie I think you are right it looks like it will fall well short of 400 million, I'd say somewhere around 310-330 which is still exceptional.

[Jedieb]

HP is going to have an amazing run. It will more than likely reach $300M and depending on LOTR may end up the year's biggest movie. It's just not going to match TPM's run, but it's still nothing to be ashamed of. It just goes to show you that the low declines that TPM had were pretty impressive. I'm still pretty interested to see just what happens on Thurs. and Fri. Just how big of a rebound will it have? Are kids going to be dragging their parents back to the theater once school is out?

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is really hard to say I think. Part of it depends on the parents and what they do on Thanksgiving. Some families just stay at home and eat dinner then on Friday start their Christmas shopping others might want to do other things. I am thinking about going to see in this weekend, I just want to see for myself if its any good.

[Jedieb]

Thursday
mmmmmmmm, Thanksgiving turkey, football, more turkey, more football, mmmmmmmmm

Friday
mmmmmmmm, Thanksgiving turkey, football, more turkey, more football, mmmmmmmmm

Saturday
Family picture day. Someone please shoot me! :x I'll be wishing I was at HP that morning!

[JMK]

I don't think HP will even get as high as 300M. Now I may end up eating my words, but I think it's gross will entirely on how much parents want to spend on their kids to see the movie. I think most parents will let their kids see it once, then tell them that its over and to wait for movie to come on VHS or DVD.

[JonathanLB]

I actually want to say that HP will not even break $300 million.

However, conventional wisdom says that no film has much difficulty making 3.5 times its opening gross, for instance. Umm... movies with really awful staying power have just grossed 3 times their first weekend total, though.

TPM had phenomenal staying power equal to films such as JP and slightly better than ID4, etc. Staying power of that level is extremely rare, though, and if a film can make 5 times its opening weekend gross that is good. 4 times is average, not good or bad.

So, if Potter had excellent staying power it would make $500 million or something. Hehe, too bad that will never happen, too bad for the studio anyway.

I think when you control 1/4 of the nation's screens you can take conventional wisdom and shove it where the sun don't shine. No film opening that wide with this much hype will manage even average staying power. No way.

Forbes article was great because it points out the obvious:

5,500 screens for TPM vs. 8,200 for HP. You expect a fair fight considering tickets now are 15% higher than in 1999?! Haha, yeah right!

TPM blew Harry Potter away in opening week popularity (and the gross will sorta show this too considering that Harry Potter is not going to make as much in five days as TPM did even with inflation). There is simply no comparison.

I am not shocked by $90 million nearly as much as I am shocked by 8,200 screens. I never thought I would see that anytime soon because I was under the impression many theaters were cutting down on screens or shutting down entirely. Not apparently, though, given these huge openings this year.

Which is more impressive, TPM's first five days or Harry Potter's? Obviously TPM's :) I'm glad I can say that too, phew, HP made a lot of cashola in three days.

Here is just how bad Harry Potter performed Monday (this was truly pathetic and shows that only kids like this movie for the most part):

Screen Count:
Harry Potter -- 8,200
TPM -- 5,500

HP tickets 15% more than TPM tickets.

TPM was in its SIXTH day of release and had already played for two normal weekdays.
Harry Potter was in its FOURTH day of release enjoying its first weekday (or not enjoying it as the case may be).

TPM fell only 50% from a remarkable Sunday (that itself fell only 10% from Saturday) to a record Monday (still a record BY FAR -- not one movie is even remotely close!).
Harry Potter fell 75% to a very pathetic looking Monday gross for such a big opening weekend.

The most telling, comparative grosses:
TPM: $10.9 million -- all-time non-holiday record.
Harry Potter: $6.64 million.

I have seen films with openings of $45 to $50 million pull in $6 million on Monday. I mean, that's just sad.

I am a realist and I was totally prepared to kiss TPM's five-day record goodbye. I figured Potter would make about $12 million (half of its Sunday gross) and would also take TPM's Monday record.

Well, I think this just reminds us all how impressive TPM really was at the box office! A Monday gross of $10.9 million?! Rarely does a film make that in any one day of its entire box office run, let alone on a Monday that was the sixth day of release!

Also, if we're going to talk staying power, don't even pretend "it's impossible to know right now." No, it isn't! The signs are clear as day. Just do your homework and all signs point to a massive fall for Potter not only this next weekend but the weekends after. Of course, massive meaning it still makes $45 million on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and probably adds $10 million to $12 million on Thursday. So you're still looking at a Thanksgiving weekend gross of up to $60 million even maybe. Not exactly shabby eh?

Here are your first big clues (and if this wasn't obvious, I don't know what is):

Harry Potter came in more than $3 million BELOW estimates. TPM came in more than $3 million ABOVE estimates! That's a $6 million difference in estimations versus actuals. Whereas one movie was being underestimated immediately after it opened, the other was being overestimated right after it opened.

Harry Potter fell 25% from Saturday to Sunday I believe ($32 to $24 million roughly?). TPM fell only 10% from Saturday to Sunday and school was still in session -- it wasn't summer any more than November is summer.

Potter fell 75% on Monday, or worse than even The Lost World fell from its holiday Monday to its following Tuesday (69%). In other words, few major films have ever performed SO POORLY after a great Sunday.

Harry Potter is falling like a rock. The film will not display any legs at all -- nor will it need to do so to make tons of money anyway.

AOTC, on the other hand, will almost definitely NOT break Harry Potter's three-day opening weekend mark (because of a lower theater count), but it will surely break the one-day total and it will also be the first film in history to make $100 million+ in only four days. It will break every speed record through $450 million in my opinion, extending by two the Star Wars dominance of said records (TPM took away HALF of Titanic's speed records, not too bad...).

TPM maintains its record as the fastest movie ever to gross $100 million. There is no tie. Harry Potter will have done so slower than TPM by virtue of the fact that the end of five days, TPM had $105 million -- Potter didn't (yes I know I've not seen Tuesday's numbers but it would have had to make $9 million -- a 50% increase from Monday -- for that to happen). So in actual HOURS to make $100 million, obviously there is no tie and in days there isn't either. Tie goes to the film with the most money at the end of the "tie" day -- the fifth day in this case.

So, TPM has maintained that record plus the Monday record, which is great. It may have lost a ton of others in the last year (none to Harry Potter actually, so far), but it hasn't lost the most important ones -- the speed records! :)

Making $300 in 28 days is incredibly impressive, hehe. Watch Harry Potter try. At best, it will make $300 million after two to four months. Not 28 days. Titanic, even, took 44 days (haha, slow...).

Well, I think it's obvious that Harry Potter is more popular already than Star Wars. I mean, 125 million books sold? Wow. Umm, gee, Star Wars has easily sold 125 million books and more and it's not even primarily about the books. Potter, lol, what a drop in the bucket. If Star Wars is an ocean, Potter is a rain drop falling into it -- insigificant, at best. Titanic is a boat sinking in it, by the way ;)

WHEN a Star Wars movie finally passes Titanic, I am going to be celebrating so hard. Man, that'll be like the best day ever. I cannot wait. May come in a year, may come in four years, may come in ten years, or thirty years, but it will be no less awesome. lol.

By the way, of course EW sucks. They are totally anti-Star Wars. I feel that my status as a fan is threatened by the fact that I subscribe to EW! I should lose fan points just for being a subscriber. The only reason I am subscribed is because I'm not paying, for one, and two, they have other interesting entertainment news but if I really was being loyal, I should simply send them a letter saying I don't appreciate PAYING them to bash my favorite movies, THE BEST MOVIES EVER, and therefore I want my subscription cancelled.

They are totally idiotic. All of their staff is anti-Star Wars. That's why it'll be so great when inevitably they MUST get back on the bandwagon again. They are being rebels now because they think that makes them "hip," but it makes them stupid in reality.

In my film class today all of the guys were talking about how awesome Episode II looks. The two guys I talked to were mixed on TPM. One guy really liked it but didn't much like Anakin. The other hated Jar Jar and thought TPM was just ok. They both seemed to agree it was a fairly good introduction to the saga with one (the guy who commented about Anakin) saying he thought it was quite a good film actually. The other was more like, "Eh, it was ok, and the Mystery trailer for Episode II kinda sucked, but the Forbidden Love one was kick ass!" Umm.. the Mystery trailer is clearly the best trailer or tied with Forbidden Love, but it doesn't suck. I don't know what he was talking about. Point being, everyone is talking about Episode II and this movie is going to be huge too. The weight of expectation was on TPM. So, we got screwed there (as far as that being unfair), but Episode II is already sort of sneaking in under the radar and WAM, pretty soon box office records won't just fall -- they'll be blown into tiny pieces.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
TPM had phenomenal staying power equal to films such as JP and slightly better than ID4, etc. Staying power of that level is extremely rare, though, and if a film can make 5 times its opening weekend gross that is good. 4 times is average, not good or bad.

TPM had excellent staying power indeed, but if we're talking phenomenal staying power, we're talking Titanic. It made 21 times its opening gross. Now THAT is phenomenal. :)


TPM fell only 50% from a remarkable Sunday (that itself fell only 10% from Saturday) to a record Monday (still a record BY FAR -- not one movie is even remotely close!).

Well, Rush Hour 2 did $9.4M on its Monday (though I don't know if it was a regular Monday or not), so that's pretty close.

[Jedieb]

Titanic's run is more impressive that TPM's. If you have to choose between a big bang and then 5 times that, or a solid bang and then 21 times that and the #1 spot, then of course you go with the #1 run. I mean ask any woman, does she want it over in 6 minutes or 22? Well, even 22 is freakishly short but you get the drift. ;)


But is Titanic's run as impressive as ANH's? I think not.

[Jedieb]

TPM's Monday drop was %50, while HP's was 62.8. Both pretty steep but it certainly bodes well for TPM in the race to $100 and $200. But these next few days are going to be interesting. Are parents going to be willing to miss holiday football games, shopping and cooking to take Johnny to see HP for the 2nd or 3rd time? It's going to be a pretty close race to $200M. But again, I see HP limping to $300M and failing to reach $400M and the end is what matters.

[Doc Milo]

That's the thing. I don't know many parents that will take their kids to see any movie more than once. That's why I was saying that LotR has a chance to do better, overall, than HP, because the audience for LotR is older, and as such, doesn't have to depend on anyone to go to see the movie for repeat viewings. LotR's repeat-viewing potential is higher. That's why I think it will do better, overall, than HP (as long as it stays away from disappointing the fan-base of the novels.)

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Because TPM had $105 million in 5 days. Potter can, at best, have $102 million so TPM STILL holds the record

Well, HP made $7.7M on Tuesday, so it's at $104.6M after 5 days. Close, but no cigar. But it's quite a bit more than $102M.

So Tuesday it went up 15% from Monday where TPM dropped 25% on its Tuesday.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it went up a little bit because there was no school for kids Wed. Still I be surprised if did less than 10 today because a lot parents will be more busy shopping than taking their kids to see a movie.

[Jedieb]

Many of these posts certainly prove one thing; HP is a hard movie to forecast. It's confounding us left and right. That's why these next few days are so hard to gauge. Just when it looks like it's going to start fading fast, it picks up by 15%. Today was not only the last day of school, but it was a 1/2 day for most school districts. So you may see a steady hold from Tuesday or another slight increase. I really didn't expect it to jump up on Tuesday, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it increase on Wed. also. It's already proved some of us wrong on more than one occasion, I wouldn't be surprised if it did it a couple of more times.

[Darth23]

HP:

Mon. - 6.64 million
Tues. - 7.65 million
Wed. - 12.65 million
Thurs - 12.32 million Total Gross - 129.56

Based on ShowBizdata.com figures.


With only three days left, I can't see HP making more than like 17 million a day for rest of the weekend. That would give it about 180 million after 10 days, and it would mean that HP probably won't hit 200 million until next weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Still I think those numbers are good and I think you are right about the weekend figures that would mean it would do 75-80 million for the 5 day weekend which is still excellent. I know some people were thinking it was going to 90 million for the 5 days which is just insane numbers (just like those SW prediction). Now I think it will do something 320-360 for the year and probably will take the top crown for the year unless LOTR just surprises everybody.

[Jedieb]

It looks like HP brought in $22.1M on Friday. It should close out the weekend even with Monsters Inc. somewhere around the $190M range.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'll speculate that it will make 55-60 for the weekend and 80-86 for the five days, so I think it will between 185-190 for the weekend. I think it will not beat TPM's to 200, it very well could tie it though.

[Darth23]

20.94 for Sasturday, a slight drop

15.5 projected for Sunday,

58.55 for the weekend - 32% drop.

83 million for the 5 day holiday period. :eek

Still HP is sitting at $188 million - looks like it wll either tie TPM or be one day behind for the race to $200 million.

If it dropped for the holiday wekeend, what is it going to do NEXT weekend?

Monsters Inc increased 10% to $24 million this weekend. It has $192 million total, and could reach $200 million on the same day as Harry P.


------------

Movie - 3 day total - 5 day total
1 Harry Potter - $58.55 - $83.52
2 Monsters Inc - $24.53 - $33.08
3 Spy Game - $21.6 - $30.5
4 Black Knight - $11.66 - $16.06
5 Shallow Hal - $ 8.9 - $12.46

[Champion of the Force]

So much for HP possibly breaking Titanic. :)

Of course it still might, but I can't see it happening with the way its now performing.

I think what's happened is that the market is rebalancing it after a monster of an opening. Huge takings on the first weekend with every man and his dog seeing it, but major dropoffs in the second as people go to see other things they missed last week. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Exactly, it still is doing well though and will easily make 300 and maybe go as high as 350 and take the sixth spot on the US Box office list, it might also pass ID4 on the World Wide total board for 4th. I think people talking about it beating Titanic was full of it and now watch them bash how much money it made just like TPM.

[imported_QuiGonJ]

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/htx/nm/20011125/re/leisure_boxoffice_dc_4.html

"The film, which last weekend smashed box office records, posting a final tally of $90.3 million in its first three days of release, surpassed 1999's ``Toy Story 2'' to become the largest-grossing movie ever over the Thanksgiving holiday."

And this is bad how? You guys sound like the pundits who beat on TPM for "not meeting expectations".

The fate of young Potter will be decided later. Sure it's gonna have smaller weekday grosses as a combo of kids being in school and the long running time. When Holiday vacations start, it'll probably see even a daytime surge.

I don't see it beating the boat, but I think 350-400 is possible.

[Champion of the Force]

And this is bad how?
Who said it was bad? :) Thus far I think the only comments about it are in regards to how it has dropped off from last week, especially considering this weekend is a holiday and thus would normally have expected similar earnings. Of course, with HP's monster opening it would be pushed to maintain such a performance in its sophomore weekend.

Regarding its final gross, BoxOffceGuru is predicting $300 million by mid-December but doesn't think it'll make $400 million. I guess it really depends on whether films like LOTR can steal its audience going into later December.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it will make 400 either mostly because of LOTR which will defintely hurt it when it opens. Still if it gets in the top 6 films of all time that is defintely nothing to cry over. Only 5 films have made more than 350 domestically (Titantic, ANH, TPM, ET, JP) and only 4 films have made more than 800 world wide (Titantic, TPM, JP, ID4) and if it does either one I call that an accomplishment, but I think there will be those in the industry (other studios) that will say well it didn't beat Titanic, heck it didn't even beat Star Wars. Unfortuntely it is the way the media is they love to destroy what they built up.

[Darth23]

When HP came out many 'experts were predicting it would beat TPM and even challenge Titanic. With it's huge opening none of those experts bothered to mention the fact that movies with HUGE openings tend to drop more quickly.

After the first weekend they were predicting that HP woudl beat TPM's record to 100 million, they were wrong. Thsi past weekend they were predicting that HP would reach 200 million by Sunday, it didn't.

HP is going to make a lot of money, quite possibly more than any other move THIS YEAR, but that doesn't mean it's a lock to reach 400 million, much less 600.

Personally, I still think Monsters Inc will beat it when they're both done. :D

[Darth23]

I rememebr what else I was going to say...

If HP does pass ESB, then I hope it at least passes ID4 as well.

:D

[Jedieb]

Unfortuntely it is the way the media is they love to destroy what they built up.

I don't usually go in for media bashing, but there's a lot of truth to that statement. HP is a success whatever way you look at it. It's going to gross over $300M and will probably be the top grossing film of the year. Even if it does get surpassed by Monsters or LOTR it has nothing to be embarrassed about. The people who should be embarassed are those who were babbling about HP surpassing Titanic, even after its opening weekend.

I think HP will either tie the $200M record of fall one day short. But even if it does tie it, it will probably be $6M-$4M behind TPM's pace for that 13th day.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with you Jedieb and I am sure WB will be happy with a 300 million run. I don't think Monsters INC will pass it though for the year but LOTR could I think if its as good as I hope it is.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The final numbers are in and HP's estimate was about a million off it actually made about 57.5 and now has almost 187 million in total sales, so it needs a little more than 13 million to get to 200 I doubt it will do till Wed at the earliest, might even take till Thursday if it averages 4 million a day that would mean it would fall 1 million short of TPM's record to 200. Part of the reason why HP is struggling I think is it is making no money on the weekdays and is really dropping on sunday (School is my guess) TPM did not have this problem since it opened in the summer (sort of). Still HP will still make at least 320 and could make as much as 350.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I guess HP has no hope for TPM's 200 million record because it only made 2.5 million yesterday. It would need to make about 11 million today to do it and I doubt that is going to happen. Heck it might not even make until Friday. Still it is easily going to pass 300, I 'd predict it makes 335 million for the year.

[JonathanLB]

This movie has plunged in weekday grosses.

To say that HP had more after 10 days than TPM is to admit you are a moron who has no idea how to comprehend statistics, let alone analyze them.

TPM's first ten days, 4 were weekend days including a Friday.
HP's first ten days, 7 were days off for every kid in the nation, 6 were Friday-Sunday. Nobody goes to school on Friday after Thanksgiving. Ever.

Look at how lousy HP is doing during the week now too. It's really pitiful. Not like I was impressed with its first Monday. In fact, that was also pitiful, but nothing about Harry Potter after its opening weekend has been even marginally impressive. It is just making whatever money is left to make from the stragglers and then it will fade like washing your clothes in a gallon of bleach.

TPM's $200 million record is not only SAFE, but way better than Harry Potter will manage. It will take until Friday for this silly movie to pass $200 million and that's the 15th day of release. The pace is slowing badly now. It will take much, much longer to get to $250 million.

I forget the day count for TPM there, but it's in my book. I know TPM had $300 million in 28 days, which was the important milestone.

Of all the records TPM set, I personally most liked the speed records from $100 million to $350 million.

I think AOTC can set speed records from $50 million to $400 million and reach about $450 million.

TPM just failed to set the $50 mil. mark because of the two weekdays before the weekend. Thursday and Friday for AOTC should add up to about $60 million at least. It would need to make more than HP did in its first two days to break the two-day record, though. (Well tie the record, but own the tie-breaker because it'd have the most money in a two-day period).

[Jedieb]

O good grief, who's the moron THIS time?:huh

HP's done great, it's got NOTHING to be ashamed of. The people who spouted "It'll beat Titanic!" look clueless, but the movie itself is a box office winner.

One of the reasons I think HP's weekday numbers are so soft is that it's core audience is much younger than TPM's. These kids aren't getting to the movie without Mom and Dad. Plus Mom and Dad are unlikely to take their kids for repeat viewings during the middle of the week. This is a problem that LOTR shouldn't have however which is why we may see a smaller opening, but stronger weekdays from it. I don't think it has to open as strong as HP to surpass it.

[JMK]

That sir, is correct. :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well HP made about 2.5 Tuesday as well so I guess there is no way it will Tie the 13 day record. I agree with you jedieb about why it is not doing very well during the week. Parents just won't bring their kids to see it on a weekday night. It should do better this weekend maybe 30-33, still it is easily going to pass 300 but it will probably end up falling short of 400. Now for LORT I think it does have advantage over HP in that most of its fans don't have to worry about going to see it with their parents they go by themselves, it should get a lot of repeat views. How many will depend on how the film meets their expections.

[BUFFJEDI]

I doubt it will even make it to 300 million.Unless it has a Strong weekend (this weekend) stick a fork in it It's done.Unless they do a Pearl harbor.

BTW: did anyone see Shallow Hale? if not , DON"T it's totally sucks.I never laughed once,period.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it is finished It should easily make another 100 million or so. Nothing comes out next weekend and really the only film that it will be competting with comes on the 19th LOTR because Oceans11 and Vanilla Sky are both adult oriented films so really it should make somewhere between 300-350 which is a great box office run.

[BUFFJEDI]

Oppss I was thinking , a few of those came out this weekend:D

my bad:( .

[Jedi Master Carr]

Only two movies come out this week Behind Enemy Lines and Texas Rangers (it is only on like 700 screens and a lot of people are saying now the film should never have been released) so it should make 30 this weekend and probably in the lower 20's next and should still be in the teens when LOTR comes out so it will pass 300 but it will defintely not challenge 400.

[BUFFJEDI]

Still way to much money for POOP!:headbash

[Jedi Master Carr]

I wouldn't call it poop, I actually like the movie, it was better than I thought it would be.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
It will take much, much longer to get to $250 million.

I forget the day count for TPM there, but it's in my book.

TPM was at $255.8M on its 19th day.


Of all the records TPM set, I personally most liked the speed records from $100 million to $350 million.

I personally most liked that it fell 1 day short of Titanic's fastest to $400M record... :)

[Jedieb]

Dutchy you're so mean to him!;)

I think the speed records are interesting, but I don't put that much weight into them. They make a difference to studios and theater owners because of the way grosses are split. Big weekends and fast declines mean studios rake in most of the money a film makes. Strong openings followed by strong and consistent performance week after week benefit theater owners because after 3 weeks they usually get the other side of the 70/30 split. The finish line is what counts. $600M is a much more important number than the number of days it took to get to any $100M mark.

Stupid boat flick. :shootin

[JonathanLB]

Whatever Dutchy. Titanic is so unimportant to basically everyone on earth, so who cares that it beat TPM to $400m by 1 day? AOTC is going to cream Titanic's quickest to $400 million anyway, so whatever TPM didn't do, AOTC has a chance to correct. Star Wars is so far superior to Titanic in every way from records to quality it's not even worth discussing, so back to the topic of THIS post.

Haha, did anyone see how wasted Harry Potter got on Friday?! Talk about having the worst legs in history, LOL, I guess that happens when you open a movie on that many screens. HP made, what, $20 million last Friday? This Friday it managed less than $6. That is like the worst fall in history. LOL. Even Behind Enemy Lines beat that dumb movie. I am quite happy with how pathetic Harry Potter is performing at this point. Should mean the film doesn't make it too far into the top 10 if it even gets there, haha.

All of these media people and apparently a lot of the idiots on TheForce.net seem to think that it's just THAT EASY to make $400 million, just that easy for a movie like Potter to come and beat TPM. I got news for you: there is a REASON why only two movies in the history of the U.S. have made more than $400 million in one release. It's because it's DAMN HARD to make that much in one release, or at all!

LOTR will not beat TPM either. There is exactly... *does calculation*... ZERO percent chance of that! lol. Anyone who voted for either of those films or both of those films to beat TPM must be an idiot. Too many people vote on polls they obviously don't understand. If you don't study the box office, don't vote on a box office poll. Jeez.

Potter is dropping like a rock, which almost always happens on this weekend. It's a terrible box office weekend. This is the same weekend that assured Toy Story 2 had no chance of passing ESB. It's the same weekend a year later that guarantees Potter has little chance of even $325 million.

[Darth23]

Harry grossed 5.9 million of Friday and came in second behind Behind Enemy Lines.

I'm thinking it will be down 60% for the weekend. It mostly dropped all week. Between the record opening and the long holiday wecond weekend it's possible that mostly everyone who wanted to see it has seen it.

Maybe it won't reach 300 million after all.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think you are right Darth I guess it having trouble attracting people outside its fan base, still it will easily do 250 I am betting now it will make it to 280 for the year and I still think LOTR will beat and cross the 300 million mark and be the #1 movie of the year.

[JonathanLB]

lol, I think LOTR has almost no chance at $300 million. Maybe $225 million.

Potter might still cross $300 million, but if so, I doubt it beats ROTJ... lol.

Talk about awful staying power. If it made $370 million that would be AVERAGE staying power (4 times its gross). If it performed as well as TPM, it would make about $630 million and beat Titanic. As it is, it is going to have just about the worst staying power of any major film in history.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think LOTR will surprise a lot of people its just a feeling that I have thats all. I could be wrong and it might not be able to attract much outside its fanbase but if thats case it will do about 250 because the LOTR fans are diehards and probably will see the thing a lot if it doesn't disapoint them which I have a feeling it won't.

[Champion of the Force]

There is exactly... *does calculation*... ZERO percent chance of that!
Until it happens, nothing is definite. Whilst I also doubt LOTR will beat it, I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch. :)

Remember, nearly everybody thought Titanic was going to be the biggest bomb ever made, and it became the most succesful film ever instead (ignoring inflation, rising ticket prices etc etc etc). So don't get too cocky Jon. :p

Anyway, I'm expecting LOTR to end up in the mid to late $200 million bracket in domestic gross. Anymore than that and I would be very impressed. My overall wish in the end though is for Jackson and co. to make a good profit out of it, considering how much time and effort they've all put into it.

[Jedieb]

To take the #1 spot you have to appeal to Grandma. You have to get people away from their usual pursuits and bring them into the movie theater. You have to attract casual fans. You have to become an EVENT. ANH did that, ET did it, and Titanic did it. Can LOTR? It's got as good a shot as any film. It's a fantasy, it has a solid fan base, and early reports seem to indicate it's a well made movie. But it has to score OUTSIDE its fanbase to take #1 or to even make it to the $400M-$600M range. I think it has a good shot at $250M-$300M. But is grandma going to check out what the hobbits and dwarves are up to?

[JonathanLB]

What do you mean?

Titanic wasn't even CLOSE to the most successful film ever, inflation or not.

Star Wars: A New Hope is the most successful film ever. It generated billions of dollars in merchandising revenue plus hundreds of millions at the box office. Titanic is nowhere near as successful. Also, you said "successful," and Titanic is at least 100 times, literally 100 times, less successful than ANH.

Titanic has inspired nobody to any profession, whereas ANH has inspired millions of people, ANH has made more overall money, it has been seen by way more people (the average person has seen ANH 7 times according to a USA/CNN/Gallup poll), it has impacted society and the film industry profoundly, unlike Titanic, which just impacted a few million wallets.

I think what you meant to say was much more specific, but what you actually did say is patently incorrect! You meant that "Titanic was the highest grossing movie ever made at the box office," which is absolutely true, but it's not the highest grossing movie ever made, let alone the most successful film!

[Jedi Master Carr]

But if you want to go there Jon it is really Gone With the Wind which I know is #1 counting inflation, but I think ANH is second with the Wizard of Oz third, I'm not sure where titantic is maybe fourth.

[Champion of the Force]

I think what you meant to say was much more specific - Titanic is the highest grossing film at the boxoffice.
I did - my bad. I was, of course, referring to the amount of money it had drawn in, in relation to what I was referring to in my first paragraph about how no one should write off what LOTR's potential is - the real focus of my post.

Interesting that you picked up the small technicality and ignored the remainder of my post, but oh well. :)

[Jedieb]

As long as there are lists that continue to adjust for inflation it'll be tough to see GWTW go down. That was a completely different era. No television, no video/DVD, no cable, etc... The only major national entertainment GWTW had to compete against was radio. No other movie will ever have so much of the entertainment landscape to itself as GWTW and its contemporaries did. If it ever does get beat it'll probably be because the population has grown so much that blockbusters routinely generate obscene amounts of ticket sales.

Today:
Movies
Video Games
Television
Sattelite
DVD & Video Rental
Radio
Pro Football
Pro Basketball
Pro Baseball
Pro Hockey
Pro Golf
Pro Wrestling
Pro Slacker Pseudo Sports (Skateboarding, etc)
Monster Joe Bob Truck Rallies
Las Vegas

Yesterday
Movies
Radio
Kick the Can

Ah the good old days. :crack

[Jedieb]

Originally posted by Davwj

Remember, nearly everybody thought Titanic was going to be the biggest bomb ever made, and it became the most succesful film ever instead (ignoring inflation, rising ticket prices etc etc etc). So don't get too cocky Jon. :p


Damn, I didn't need my special Davwj decorder ring to figure out you meant Titanic surprised everyone and became #1. Where's the need to cop to ANYTHING Davwj? :rolleyes

[Champion of the Force]

I've used this thread as a reference for my latest news item on the SWFans portal page:

http://www.swforums.net/index.php

If I've made an error or anything please let me know. :)

[JonathanLB]

"But if you want to go there Jon it is really Gone With the Wind which I know is #1 counting inflation"

No...

The most successful film in box office history with regard to gross, not ticket sales, is Titanic. Gone With the Wind is #1 in ticket sales.

I said only that ANH is the most successful film of all time, which is true. GWTW had no merchandising sales and ANH absolutely annihilated it in total gross, regardless of ticket sales.

I like the adjusted ticket sales list. GWTW has its place at first which I respect. It was a very successful movie. SW is still the most successful in the modern era, as Jedieb has mentioned so much competition for attention now. Just different eras.

ANH will triumph over GWTW sometime soon I think, though.

The adjusted list is great because it rarely changes. The number of tickets sold is the most important.

I think perhaps another interesting guage would be the percentage of tickets that a movie accounted for during a one year period. Umm... that'd be tough because movies span several years sometimes, but if you said an equal number of months before or after. If a movie played 9 months, you say 1.5 months before, 9 months during, 1.5 months after. What % of ticket sales did it account for?

That is a good guage of popularity too I think.

Problem is that you cannot adjust no matter what because the equation has too many variables. How can you adjust first for population increases, but then adjust downwards because today we have more alternatives to movies than when GWTW came out. So you are left to thinking maybe the % of overall ticket sales in one year is probably a fair indication too.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Looks like HP had a strong Saturday it made 24 million for the weekend but fell 58%, Lee says it will still make 300 I guess we will have to wait and see. Behind Enemy Lines made 19.5 which is pretty good I didn't expect it to make that much money.

[Champion of the Force]

I thought the same thing about Enemy - Ebert gave it a drubbing in his review and it didn't look as though it would be a money-maker, but there you go. :)

At the rate it's going I can't see HP breaking $400 million domestic, though I wouldn't be surprised if it found its way to $300 million eventually.

[JonathanLB]

Nobody is talking about $400 million anymore. That would be impossible. The film is falling like a rock. That is such a horrid decline, phew, thank god.

This movie is toast.

[Champion of the Force]

That is such a horrid decline, phew, thank god.
Were you that worried about it Jon? :p

Anyways, I saw HP last Thursday. Not bad - I'd give it 3.5 out of 5. However I'm certainly not going to see it a second time at the cinema - it just seemed a tad rushed to me and and I never felt really drawn in.

[Darth23]

"Nobody is talking about $400 million anymore. That would be impossible. The film is falling like a rock. That is such a horrid decline, phew, thank god. "

I guess you didn't see THIS:



From Yahoo.com (http://movies.yahoo.com/news/va/20011202/100733435400.html)

"'Harry Potter'' fends off ``Enemy'' at box office
Sunday December 2 3:05 PM ET
By Dean Goodman

Movie News - Variety All Variety Movie News

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
''Harry Potter'' fends off ``Enemy'' at box office
Sunday December 2 3:05 PM ET


By Dean Goodman

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Harry Potter charmed moviegoers in North America for a third consecutive weekend, holding off a strong challenge from crowd-pleasing war film ''Behind Enemy Lines'' as overall receipts suffered in the traditional post-Thanksgiving malaise.

Besides ``Behind Enemy Lines,'' the top 10 contained one other new entry: the French romantic comedy hit ``Amelie,'' which jumped two places to No. 9 in its fifth weekend.

ADVERTISEMENT


According to studio estimates issued Sunday, ``Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone'' grossed $24.1 million for the three days beginning Friday. (The film is called ``Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone'' in English-speaking Canada and in most international territories.)

The family fantasy has now pulled in $220.1 million in North America, and passed the double-century mark on Friday, its 15th day of release. The fastest movie to reach $200 million was ``Star Wars: Episode I -- The Phantom Menace,'' which took 13 days in 1999.

Executives from Warner Bros. Pictures, the AOL Time Warner Inc. unit that released the Chris Columbus-directed film worldwide, expect it to reach the high $300 million-low $400 million mark by the end of its North American run.

``Harry Potter'' lost 58 percent of its audience from last weekend's Thanksgiving-boosted session, about on par with the other top wide releases. "


The story implies that the WB execs gave that quote today.

I'm not sure what they're smoking, but they probably get it from the same place as the Disney guy that gauranteed PH would hit 200 million. :p

[Darth23]

Harry potter can sill make 300 million, but it's weeday numbers are going to continue to be weak, and I think it's drops will be closer to 40% than 30%. The Grinch came off a 52 million dollar weekend last year and dropped 48%. HP dropped close to 60.

I also expect the final numbers for it to be below the estimate again.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it might make it to 300 it only needs 80 million which is not really out of the question, now I don't think it will make much more than that mayb 310 or so probably just below ID4 and ROTJ.

[JonathanLB]

Muahaha, what are they smoking?!

High $300's?!?!?! No way!

Are they on drugs? Seriously. Nobody intelligent would say that. Are they honestly that stupid?

Look, I want to make as much as I can online this month, but I am not going to say, "Oh yeah I bet I can clear $4,000 this month, even though I'm on course for about $2,200 to $2,500." LOL. That just doesn't make sense. Them lying is only going to make the final gross look more pitiful than it already will given the massive opening.

It's just another one of those, "This film opened with so and so more percent than TPM but made so and so % less total." Lost World was 10% higher in opening, then total was about 45% lower. Harry Potter will look far worse than that, though. lol.

[JonathanLB]

Read the AP report, it's even funnier.

It says HP has a good chance to reach the levels of ANH or TPM.

Then Warner says that it's "too early to tell" whether or not Harry Potter will beat Titanic! ROFL!!

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Too early to tell, man that is funny. ROFL!!!!

There is a reason Titanic made so much -- increases and low declines! It stayed above $20 million for like 12 weeks or something and it was #1 for 15 weeks. It was around forever and it had the best staying power of any movie in modern movie history.

Potter has arguably the worst staying power of any film in modern history, hahaha. Man, Titanic levels? That is a JOKE.

I bet the guys at Fox are getting a good laugh about that. Yeah, keep smoking your weed Warner, but pass it over this way when you're done -- there clearly must be enough for everyone! It must be quite potent too.

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Titanic is so unimportant to basically everyone on earth, so who cares that it beat TPM to $400m by 1 day?

YOU do.


Star Wars is so far superior to Titanic in every way from records to quality

It is? Guess you forgot about Titanic's all time final gross box office records then, which, by the way, matter the most.

Anyway, you seem to get very uptight on defending TPM's boxoffice against HP, Titanic and whatever else. Relax, man. :)

[Jedieb]

YOU do.:lol

That's not true Dutchy. People really don't care about the $400M record. It's not important. Only the $100M, $200M, and $300M records are important. Because.., well because TPM has THOSE records. Only the records TPM owns matter. The others are just silly. Until another SW movie gets them. Then they're important. Silly Dutchy. ;)

[JonathanLB]

No, I do not get uptight about it whatsoever. I couldn't be more relaxed with two more Star Wars movies pounding on the door, Titanic's door, and Harry Potter too. They're coming to get revenge :)

"It is? Guess you forgot about Titanic's all time final gross box office records then, which, by the way, matter the most."

Umm... no. Actually that doesn't matter the most. HERE is what matters the most:

1) Gone With the Wind
2) STAR WARS: A NEW HOPE
3) E.T.
4) Titanic

Ticket sales figures. That's what matters the most, and in ticket sales, Star Wars is the most successful modern blockbuster. Only GWTW has a higher ticket sales count and that is reasonable; it has come out 9 times and been out since 1939. It deserves respect for its accomplishments :)

Titanic, on the other hand, was driven by screaming, horny teenage girls, just as the AP mentioned the other day. It mainly made that much because of repeat viewings from screaming Leo fans who helped pull everyone else into the theater too, which obviously was enough to make a pretty mediocre film quite successful.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Still Jon, I wouldn't consider HP a disapointment, I said this before the stupid media put it to a level it could never achieve. I thought from the start that it would make somewhere between 250-300 million and it will do that easily, I'd say now it finishes with about 305-310 probably just south of ROTJ and ID4 which is very good especially considering the competition it has to deal with in Nov and then later in Dec with LOTR coming up. I doubt WB will be disapointed with it doing 300 domestically and probably 700-800 ww.

[Jedieb]

Let's remember the budget as well. At $125M this film is gong to turn in a tidy profit for WB. Although I'm sure some WB accountant will cry poverty if they have the chance to stick it to someone. ;) There's no anyone can call $250M-$300M a dissapointment, that's silly. With the benfit of hindsight the ridiculous hype can now be ripped to shreds, but HP's B.O. performance is great.

[BUFFJEDI]

Well look at it like this HP will make almost 300 mil (I doubt anymore) but yet I still will not be impressed.Once agian the ticket price, # of screens, and of course the fact (one that seems to be over looked) that atleast 25% of the money is coming form the parents that have to take there children to see it. And of course Most critics liked it.As with most FAD movies Potter will come and go.It will NEVER be the type of movie like GWTW, SW or even ET(although not as strong ).Potter has all the hype now but in the next couple of years when they bring out the next couple of HP movies the audience will have out grown potter. SW will forever be a part of the American way.In 5 years ask aa kid now 10 about HP, and they will say WHO?Ask a girl who was 13 years old in 97 about Titanic you'll get , Titanic? whatever. Ask a kid that was 8 years old in 1977 about SW and you'll get < OH my that movie changed my life , it was and is so awesome.Hp is a fad
a Kids movie Much like a cartoon,They almost always do great . You can't put a movie like that in the same Boat as SW,titanic,or GWTW.These movies rely on adult loyalty(so to speak) to reach the pinnicle of succes they have achieved.Although I LOVE Titanic it still is not what SW is and never will be.Fads come and go Star WARS is for ever.

I do like that Jon did point out that GWTW was released like a 1,000 times since 1939 . I think the box office champ should be the film that sold the most tickets in the firts run. No matter what year that , that film was made. Although GWTW might have it due to the fact there really was not alot of compatition back than.

Do know I relize SW has been released a few times it's self:D well right or wrong that's my 2 cents worth and if you don't agree I'll kick you teeth in:D ;)

[BUFFJEDI]

I do need to point out I realize whatever money Potter makes will be alot.It just will not impress me,But I truely doubt warner cares if I'm impressed or not.just fyi.
:D

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
Umm... no. Actually that doesn't matter the most. HERE is what matters the most:

Yeah, right. The only thing that matters is dollars, cash, dough. At least to the American film studios. How often do you see a box office list based on ticket sales?


Ticket sales figures. That's what matters the most, and in ticket sales, Star Wars is the most successful modern blockbuster. Only GWTW has a higher ticket sales count and that is reasonable;

Yeah, but no one cares.


Titanic, on the other hand, was driven by screaming, horny teenage girls

LOL. Stick to Star Wars, man. I can't believe you're stil coming up with that BS. :)

[Jedieb]

GWTW has been re-released an average of 16 times a year for over 60 years! HOLY CRAP!!!!!!!!!! That's the most impressive B.O. performance I've ever heard of. ;)

"screaming, horny teenage girls" V. "geeky horny teenage boys"
Who wins here? And if you're a teenage boy, aren't screaming, horny teenage girls a GOOD thing? :rolleyes

Does anyone have ticket sales figures for the 30's, 40's, and 50's? Despite the U.S. popluation being significantly smaller than was it is today, movies were more popular than they are today. Again, it's that entertainment competition I was talking about. And hey, if ticket sales are the most important factor then what happens when a 350M or 400M population rountinely causes SW ticket sales records to fall? And aren't we then giving the crown to the biggest "chick flick" of them all (GWTW)? I guess screaming horny girls swooning for Clark Cable were much cooler than those swooning for Leo.

[BUFFJEDI]

True! it's all about the $$'s

[Jedieb]

I thought it was all about Bea? buff, I'm dissapointed in you. :(

[BUFFJEDI]

well I think Clark Gable was a hottie! for a man I mean, you know for a guy and all, you know for a guy..;)

[BUFFJEDI]

:lol :lol

Oh it's all about the BEA!! and she's got the $$$"s Too!

just think all that grace and money to boot!!

[BUFFJEDI]

Is there a way to accurately crown a box office champ?I know that it;s pretty much about the money, but there has to be a way to settle all the debates about it. I mean Titanic holds the box-office money but GWTW holds Ticket sales.


but in Constant dollars

1.GWTW
2.Snow white
3.Starwars.
17.Titanic

but of course GWTW and Snow white have been pu in theaters a lot.and Star wars what 3-4 times?But on first runs I'm sure Star wars has them all beat. I think?:huh

[Champion of the Force]

Titanic, on the other hand, was driven by screaming, horny teenage girls ... It mainly made that much because of repeat viewings from screaming Leo fans who helped pull everyone else into the theater too.
I have to agree with Dutchy - it's a weak argument. If teenage girls had that much effect on the performance of the film, why then did films like The Beach fail to draw in any major money?

No - Titanic was the success it was - not due to teenage girls - but due to its appeal right across the age spectrum, from 9 year olds to 99 year olds. Even my grandmother who on average sees 1 film at the cinema every 2 decades or so went and saw it. Its ability to bring in everyone and their extended family - for multiple viewings - is what made it the success it was. :)

As for which is more important - money made or tickets sold, well that's down to opinion. Obviously the number of tickets sold would be a more honest way of recording the success of a film due to rising ticket prices and the like, however many are only interested in pure dollar terms, since money is what makes the world go around. :)

[BUFFJEDI]

But when the Beach came out , Leo was like so Yesterday :D

The reason i say That is because I was thinking to myself when I saw the trailer for it during TPM, I thought to myself.It will not make any money because the girls don't like him anymore.just thought I'd throw that in :D O_o nonetheless Titanic was/is a great movie.

[JonathanLB]

Why didn't the Beach do well? Because obviously Leo was passe by that time. I think it's a very strong argument that at least the horny teenage girls added a lot. They are more powerful than us guys, they have proven that time and again. You cannot drag your gf to a guy movie, but she can drag you anywhere. Not to mention that they have daddy's credit card or whatever and seem to spend far more than any guy ever could manage.

"The only thing that matters is dollars, cash, dough. At least to the American film studios."

You are wrong in a fundamental concept here, Dutchy, which is making you look foolish, at least if anyone else is paying attention. A dollar back in 1977 bought MORE than a dollar does now, which is why it DOES matter how many tickets were sold, NOT the dollar amount. Ticket sales are the best way to "adjust for inflation."

GWTW made a ton of money, but just because you don't think $1 is much doesn't mean it wasn't much in 1939. $1 back then was big money. I mean, what, you could get a great meal for a $1 right? My dad is only 59 (only, hehe), and he talks about getting 5 cent hamburgers and crap. I'm amazed at that, but the point being, 1939 dollars were worth ten times as much as they are today or something. It does make a difference.

I only care about overall ticket sales, so I am happy to concede that at the box office GWTW is the highest selling movie in history. Star Wars is still clearly the most popular, though, because you have four films here compared to just GWTW.

Star Wars is the most popular film series ever, but more than that, ANH is the most popular film ever made.

Titanic is up there in the most popular without a doubt, can't take that away from it.

I didn't say HP was a disappointment. They are probably going to be VERY HAPPY! Plus, there is a sequel next year, this is great for Warner...

I am not especially impressed, though. I was more impressed with how The Others performed. It showed strong staying power because people obviously liked it. Harry Potter has shown lousy staying power, even over Thanksgiving. It shouldn't have fallen more than 5% from the first to the second weekend, given the Friday which was basically a holiday for everyone who would see a movie like HP, lol.

I was impressed with the opening of HP, for sure, but the rest has not impressed me. It's just not that big of a deal. It's been unremarkable since the massive opening.

[Jedieb]

Did someone just say that Leo's teenage female fans can outdraw their male SW counterparts? Is that why Titanic beat TPM? Oh the shame, the shame... :rolleyes

[JMK]

The media put TPM level hype on this movie, and I'm positive, unless writers are total idiots (which very well may be) that they KNEW that parents would be paying for a huge amount of the box office take. I think most of us here can agree that parents take their kids to see a movie once, maybe twice unless they enjoy the movie themselves. Everyone with half a brain would have realized that HP would have opened huge and rapidly declined because parents simply won't take their kids over and over to see the same movie. I'm positive the media knew this, but are hyping the film to challenge the the top films of all time anyway.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I am not getting into the Titantic stuff that has been gone over on this board so much I am just tired of it:zzz. Now on to HP,I agree with you JMK, the medie did this on purpose to make it more interesting, I'm wondering if they are going to hype up LOTR or not? And the same with AOTC, although they might bring up the how disapointing TPM was :p I wouldn't be surprise if before the movie comes out there will be some Entertainment columnist out there that will SW has lost it (probably Newsweek), but still most will hype it up so they can trash it when it doesn't beat Titantic.

[Jedieb]

I really don't think that the media did anything on purpose here. I just think that a lot of the writers who picked up on the "HP can beat Titanic" hype didn't really know what they were talking about. They knew the novels were huge, they heard box office "experts" predicting record openings so they took the leap from their. Do you really think Matt Lower and Katie Couric really know much about B.O. figures? They do their little fluff pieces and they spout the obligatory hype.

Now when entertainment columnists start bashing films they took part in hyping then you've got a machine in motion. They need something to write about for the week so they crank out a piece slamming something that doesn't deserve to be torn down. SW has lost it, it failed to beat Titanic, it's a failure, Jar Jar sucks, blah, blah, blah... One week they're writing about how Buffy the Vampire is the second coming and that it and The West Wing are the finest shows on television. The next week they get stuck writing a Box Office column and have to come up with some kind of angle.

BTW, can someone exlplain all this Buffy worship to me? I've seen the show and I'm not that impressed. Sarah M.G. isn't exactly delivering performances that make Alison Janey(The West Wing's CJ) nervous. I don't get it. :huh

[Jedi Master Carr]

I guess you are right Jedieb, overall, but I still think magazine like EW like doing it at least to SW. I remember back in 98 they started hyping the movie up saying how great it was going to be then turn around and call it crap (the reviewer for the magazine only gave it a B- which is not terrible), and now they are doing the same thing to AOTC already hyping it up, I think they are hoping it fails, but I think they are going to have egg on their face this time :)

[JonathanLB]

Seriously, when AOTC crosses $500 million it'll be tough for them to spin that any other way besides, "Gee... well, TPM sucked." It'll be like, "Umm...? How is that relevant to the subject?" "Umm... TPM sucked." "Yes, we heard that for three years, now shutup already and say something original." "TPM sucked. Nah nah nah!"

Morons, lol.

TPM sucked so hard that only 95% of everyone who saw it thought it was excellent or very good. Man what an awful movie. It is a disgrace not only to Star Wars but to just good taste and movies in general. Any movie can make $925 million worldwide, ok, big deal. That's why only one other movie has made more, but any movie can do that. It was all because of the hype that the film had such great declines and stayed in theaters for like a half of a year. That has nothing to do with quality because I SAID so. TPM is a bad movie and everyone knows that. Clearly everyone was disappointed. It is very clear to me that because I feel that way, everyone else must feel that way and the fact that it has been so successful doesn't say anything because really it is just hype. People just bought the movie they hated in theaters on video because of all of the hype surrounding the video release. Same with the DVD.

TPM sucks. Boo Jar Jar! Kill Jar Jar and the Ewoks, the only good Star Wars movie is ESB, which would make no sense without ROTJ and the other SW films, but that's besides the point.

"Do you really think Matt Lower and Katie Couric really know much about B.O. figures?"

No, but I also think that Katie Couric is incredibly hot. Man... that is a real encouragement to watch the news. She's not even that young either, but holy cow.

By the way, Harry Potter is the biggest failure ever just because it didn't beat Titanic already. It is a box office bomb.

Honestly, why do writers even bother writing about a subject if they clearly have no grasp of it? Anyone with even a simple knowledge of the box office, or even the economy, would realize Harry Potter had no chance at beating Titanic.

To be honest, the only film that has a chance at beating Titanic is that film we don't know the name of yet, the one coming out in some month we don't even know, made by who knows what director and starring who knows what actors, but it will come out and stun the world as Titanic did, only bigger and more impressively. That is the Titanic-buster.

Of course, the next two Star Wars movies have a chance, but come on, they are the fifth and sixth sequels in a saga. If they each made $450 million that would be more than just remarkable. It would be something that might not ever be accomplished again, well at least in the next 100 years (in ticket sales). Perhaps no other 4th, 5th, and 6th parts of a series will ever perform so well. It is quite possible. Forever is a long time, but Star Wars will be around equally as long to defend its throne. I'd be quite happy to see each of the next two films clear the $400 million mark. Only TPM and Titanic have ever done that in one release...

[Dutchy]

Originally posted by JonathanLB
You are wrong in a fundamental concept here, Dutchy, which is making you look foolish, at least if anyone else is paying attention. A dollar back in 1977 bought MORE than a dollar does now, which is why it DOES matter how many tickets were sold, NOT the dollar amount. Ticket sales are the best way to "adjust for inflation."

I know, dude, but people are not interested in ticket sales and figures adjusted to inflation. You'll never hear about a new ticket sales record or inflation record or whatever, and you should know that.

Oh, and I'm not looking foolish here, thank you.

[Jedieb]

I found some interesting info on admissions/ticket sales. I think these are the figures that are used whenever someone puts up inflation adjusted figures. It really would be interesting to round up some old newspapers to see what kind of numbers, if any, were reported back in the 30's and 40's.

1 Gone with the Wind 283,100,000 12/15/39
2 Snow White & the. 225,300,000 02/04/37
3 Star Wars 176,900,000 05/25/77
4 E.T. 158,000,000 06/11/82
5 101 Dalmatians 143,100,000 01/25/61
6 Bambi 140,800,000 08/13/42
7 Titanic 130,900,000 12/19/97
8 Jaws 128,600,000 06/20/75
9 The Sound of Music 119,300,000 05/18/65
10 The 10 Commandments 117,800,000 10/05/56

The numbers in italics are the number of admissions each film has supposedly generated. I say supposedly because these are estimates, but they're as accurate as you can get under the circumstances.

[BUFFJEDI]

whats you opinion on this guy's?about:blank

http://www.msnbc.com/news/663127.asp?0dm=N2DNL

[Jedieb]

Change the date to 1983 and switch from J.K. to Lucas and Spielberg and you've got the same article we've been reading for the last 20 years. While there is some truth to the article, it's not the end of the world. You can still find good, non corporate movies out there. In fact, the indepedent film industry has never been stronger and they have more avenues than ever to get their films out. No one forces people to go see RH2. Turned off by big budget Hollywood sequels? Then go rent an indie film or read a book. :)

[JonathanLB]

"I know, dude, but people are not interested in ticket sales and figures adjusted to inflation."

Yes, they do care about those records. That is why in many articles mentioning the top films, they say, "Of course, if you take into account inflation, GWTW is still the true champ," etc.

That list posted is totally wrong, btw, none of the Disney films belong on there as none of them sold even close to that many tickets.

The real numbers are not close to that anyway. ANH sold 169.2 million tickets, not 176. GWTW didn't sell as many as marked there, either. It was about 200 even.

That list is totally wrong. ANH is 2nd, Titanic is 4th. E.T. 3rd and GWTW 1st.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That guy is just full of it. HP is not a coroporate movie first off there is hardly any merchandise or product adorsoments. Only Coke and toys no happy meals or stuff like that. Really the guy is smoking something because Hollywood has always been making big movies. Go back to the old westerns a lot of them were the same story the names were changed (only some of them now). Then you have the big bible epics: Ten Commandments, Ben-Hur, The Robe, etc. So his whole argument his garbage, he just wants to cause trouble.

[Jedieb]

While there's a huge corporation behind HP and tons of products, this isn't the end of the world. The major problem I have with the article is that it's the same argument we've been hearing about blockbusters year after year. It's just that the companies producing them are even bigger than the studios used to be because they actually own the studios now. So what? In the article he almost makes it seem like we won't be getting Lethal Weapon type sequels because they're not corporate friendly. WTH?!

Don't like blockbusters? Then don't go see them. Don't act like there aren't any quality, thought provoking movies being made because studios produce RH2 and The Wedding Planner. There are good movies out there. So what if people have to look a little harder for them. If they want it bad enough they'll find it. And why does he drag LOTR into this? Because they started on the sequels before the first one ever hit the screen? They did that with Back to the Future 2 & 3. Shouldn't this article have come out then? This guy just needs to lighten up a bit.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually the practice of filming films back to back goes back to at least the 70's (Unless you count the old black and white serials) the first director to do it was Richard Lester for the Three and then Four Musketeers (actually the actors thought it was going to be one movie after they found out it was two they sued and won the lawsuit) then WB was going to do it again with Superman (if you watch Superman II closely you can notice some of these scenes) but it didn't go the way they wanted because of Donner and they had to change directors and brought in Lester.

[JonathanLB]

Hey hey, what do you mean? RH2 rocked! That is one of the funniest movies I have seen in ages! American Pie 2 was perhaps even better. It was a great month for comedy (August), hehe.

Anyone see Potter's pathetic Monday gross?! LOL. Talk about finished! I have no idea why Warner is acting as though this film is somehow going to start GAINING millions of dollars per weekend as x-mas approaches. No, lol. The other movies coming out are just going to cream Harry Potter.

Ali, Vanilla Sky, Ocean's 11, Lord of the Rings, all may not be aimed at Harry Potter's audience, but hey, guess what? They have one thing in common: they play in THEATERS. Theaters have only so much space. Underperforming movies do not have a place in any theater. Conclusion: Potter is going to get dropped like a hot tomale by any of the smaller 3 to 6 screen theaters within the next few weeks.

Now I see why they call it Harry Potter and the Sorcerers Stone. Because it fell like a rock! :D

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its still probably going to do 300 million and I wouldn't call it a disapointment, hey it did a lot better than Planet of the Apes that film took the biggest drop ever making 68 million in one weekend and couldn't even beat JP3 now that is bad, IMO a lot worse than HP which will earn somewhere between 275-300 and either be #1 or #2 movie of the year depending on what LOTR does.

[Jedieb]

If HP is a disappointment because it didn't live up to the media's hype, then isn't TPM a disappointment because it didn't live up to the same kind of hype? The hype that said its opening weekend would be over $100M? The hype that said it would surpass Titanic and gross $700M or $800M? Didn't some people on this board make those kinds of predictions? :rolleyes

[JonathanLB]

Harry Potter is in NO way a disappointment by monetary standards, but it has had disappointing declines by some people's standards. I thought the declines were reasonable given that so many people saw it the first weekend and I never would have pegged this movie to make more than $350 million anyway, so I think it did great.

I am just saying that it has displayed lousy staying power. One way or another, a film gets to its intended gross. It either makes it very rapidly (Lost World, HP) or it does so slowly and sustains a long run (Titanic, TPM, ANH, E.T., Sixth Sense, etc.). One way or another, everyone who really wanted to see it does see it.

I don't think poor staying power ALWAYS means a movie sucked. Although, I have heard mostly mixed reviews of Potter. My film teacher said it was pretty decent, but she said it would be lousy if she hadn't read the books because it makes no sense as a stand alone film and has no real climax (I didn't see it, so I don't know). I heard from other people the effects sucked hard, the plot was decent as it followed the book, but nothing amazing. I've just heard mostly 2.5 to 3 star comments about it, nobody has been very negative and I've not heard anyone rave about it either, except my sister. She was a big fan of the books and likes the movie a lot. I think that's mostly how it goes. If you read the books, you will enjoy the movie, but if not, it's just ok, maybe pretty good, nothing too special. That is the impression I have gotten from talking to many people in real life who saw it.

In the case of HP, it is better than its staying power indicates I think, that's what I'm trying to say. Just because it had super lousy staying power doesn't mean it was the worst movie ever. It just means that it opened so big that it obviously couldn't be expected to sustain that level of gross. It should be judged in its own separate manner, just as it is not fair to say that TPM should have performed like Titanic.

If TPM had as good of staying power as Titanic it would have made about $1.2 billion (20 times the three-day opening gross). So that obviously wasn't possible. Because Titanic's opening weekend wasn't impressive, it was possible for it to make 20 times its opening gross. To say that Harry Potter could have done that too is absurd. That would be $1.8 billion in North America a lone, enough to beat Titanic's worldwide record!!! LOL. So clearly you have to use different standards depending on the opening.

For instance, if a movie should make 4 times its opening gross and that is considered "average," perhaps you have to say that Potter could only be reasonably expected to make three and a half times its opening gross to be considered "average" (in staying power).

Using that same analogy, perhaps a film that opens in only 1,500 theaters and is obviously going to expand must make at least 8 times its opening to be considered of average staying power. I guess my point is that extreme circumstances require different measurements than a normal movie.

In other words, I would defend Potter's staying power as average *given its massive opening*, even though it is lousy by normal standards. It cannot be measured against other movies because there has never been a film with such a large opening or even anything *remotely* close!

[Darth23]

"If HP is a disappointment because it didn't live up to the media's hype, then isn't TPM a disappointment because it didn't live up to the same kind of hype? The hype that said its opening weekend would be over $100M? The hype that said it would surpass Titanic and gross $700M or $800M? Didn't some people on this board make those kinds of predictions?"

I predicted 143 million so it's done beter than I thought it would. :p

HP is MORE of a 'disapointment' because the so-called experts were expecting it to easily challenge TPM and possibly even pass Titanic. Even after this past weekend's drops a studio exec was quoted as saying HP would reach the "high 300's / low 400's." (as if)

HP's failure shows just what a great run TPM had. :D

You need more than a big name and a built in fanbase to reach the top three. Actually the worst thing is that all the box office stories that were widely circulated because of the whole HP hype/interest totally failed to mention the fact that a lot of movies that open really big flame out more quickly. They looked at the advanced ticket sales, then the huge opening weekend and automatically assumed that HP was going to continue breaking records through its run.

More of the writers of the articles should have pointed out that you can't really tell a movie's legs until the holiday period is over and you can compare a normal week to week performance.

With HP's huge following, record opening weekend and record holiday period, large number of theaters and higher ticket prices reaching the TPM/top 5 level shouldn't have been that hard.
This week it's down 50% from last week, so a big drop again this weekend (40% plus) is quite possible.

Of course it's not REALLY a disappointment. Once it had 90 million in three days it was pretty much a lock to be the biggest movie of the year (until LOTR, at least). 280-300 million (or a bit more) is a great accomplishment.

[Jedieb]

I consider $280M-$300 a great accomplishment also. What should be chastized is the hype machine that kept going on and on about HP making a run at Titanic. I just got the feeling that a lot of the people who were writing this stuff were looking at the B.O. for the first time.

[JonathanLB]

They had no place commenting about the box office. They are idiots. That much is clear. If you hire staff members to write about every subject, they are going to sound like idiots about almost every subject. I say you are better off with some staff, mostly freelancers, that way you can get accurate information from experts, not poorly researched nonsense from your staff. Maybe the sportswriters had to fill in for the box office reports ;)

Potter will, no matter what, be the year's highest grossing movie. LOTR may beat it with its gross from 2002, but in actual 2001 dollars HP is tops. Just as Titanic was not really the highest grossing movie OF 1997. It was the highest grossing movie released that year, but even Star Wars made more in 1997 than Titanic did ($140 million to about $120 million). MIB was 1997's highest grossing film with LW in second I think.

[Darth23]

[comments transferred form the O11 thread]

Hollywood reporter and another Idiot Quote from someone at WB. He was implying that since Hp only dropped 37% this week, as compared to 57% last week, that it has 'stabalized' and should perform very well for during Christmas.

The 57% from after Thanksgiving was a bit higher than normal, but expected. A more normal 37% drop againt isn't GREAT, but it's normal - it's not like it was going to drop another 50% THIS week.

Monsters Inc only dropped 27% after LOSING 500 screens! THAT'S a good performance. Too bad it's totals are already pretty low.

HP will make 8-9 million next weekend, then, if it's lucky, it will drop very little the next two weeks after that. I really think it's Friday numbers will be closer its Saturday numbers, but over all I think that between LOTR, Monsters Inc hanging around, Jimmy Neutron, and with a loss of screens, it's not going to do anything spectacular or even surprising for the rest of its run.

[Darth23]

OK, can someone explain this too me?

I keep reading out of context articles about how Phantom Menace keeps getting beaten by HP. They've moved to International coverage because HP is clearly underperforming compared to TPM now.

Here's Reuter's clip that TheFOrce.net posted:




Potter Breaks More Phantom Records[The FOrce.net's headline]

Known as "Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone" in Asia and the U.S. and "Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone" elsewhere, the epic notched an estimated $10.1 million, including previews, in its first five days in France, a record bow for a Hollywood film (beating "Star Wars: Episode I -- The Phantom Menace") and the industry's fourth highest there.
In Italy, WB was projecting a three-day debut of $4 million, which it rates as 77% bigger than "Phantom Menace" and 61% up on "Titanic."


Of, first of all, I didn't even know TPM HAD any kind of record in France - apparently it held the FOURTH highest opening in France untill HP came along and snatched that coveted title from it.

Secondly, if Titanic had the opening record on Italy, why mention that HP passed the Second place Phantom Menace when it also beat the FIRST PLACE Titanic? (W.T. F.??)

Overall the article is pretty annoying - it's basically an article written by someone who was looking at some lists of HP'ssperformace in several countries. Sometimes the number of screens is listed, mostly not. Sometimes a little background info is given, but rarely. Sometimes they say how much HP dropped, sometimes they don't. It made almost as much this weekend as last weekend. (Is it playing in more countries, or on more screens? Who Knows?)

<a href=http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20011210/en/film-boxofficeoverseas_127.html>Here's</a> the whole article.

The only think I really got out of the article is that HP is beating TPM's 'records'.


Is having the 4th highest opening in France and the 2nd highest opening in Italy a "record" that ANYONE knew about?

Jon?


Maybe some wants to stop the tide of "Harry Potter is slowing down" articles that have been showing up. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

HP should stil do at least 280, it might not reach LOTR but it should still take the honors as the #1 film of the year, at least until LOTR demolishes it next year:D

[Darth23]

I posted this everywhere else so I guess I should post it here. I did a chart looking at HP's most likely performace for the rest of its run:

<img src=http://www.tfn.net/~alanwoot/HPForecast.jpg>


Unless is somehow manages to come storming back during LOTR week, it's probably not going to get to 300 million. the NEXT question is whether or not it will pass that Star Wars B.O. stepchild, ESB. ;)

I'm wondering... considering the fact that Shrek was still close tot he top 30even after it was breaking DVD sales records, and since there going to be an Animation oscar this year, maybe Shrek will come back before Oscar time. That could push it up a few million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think they will rerelease Shrek besides I don't think it will have much chance of reclaiming the the top spot which I think by then will be held by LOTR at around 300.

[Darth23]

...or 600 milion. :p

I didn't think HP had a chance of reaching top 5 status, but I still think LOTR COULD do it. Who knows?

The hype is definitely kicking in - all the tv apperances and magazine covers. It will have better critical reaction than TPM, so it's going to have a BIG opening.

The real question is will the quality of the film and the quality of the story bring people back week after week? No one yeat has said it's 'bad' I've read some mild criticisms in the middle of some positive reviews, but who knows how valid those factors really are.

If its as dark as a lot of peopel are saying, that could help it with the critics, but not as much with the audience.

Anyway 300 - 350 million is fine by me. :p

[Jedieb]

Unless is somehow manages to come storming back during LOTR week, it's probably not going to get to 300 million. the NEXT question is whether or not it will pass that Star Wars B.O. stepchild, ESB.

ESB SE $67.6M
ROTJ SE $45.4M

Another re-release like that and we'll have a brand new Star Wars B.O. Stepchild, won't we Darth23? :D

[Champion of the Force]

According to BOGuru, HP made approx. $9.9 million for the weekend.

Interestingly, Guru is predicting HP to coast to $300 million on the back of the school holidays.

[Darth23]

I saw that, I think he's wrong. :D

First, I think with 5 wide releases coming out, HP will be losing a lot fo theaters and a lot of screens. At one point it was playing on a quarter of all the screes inthe country - there's no way it's totals can justify it keeping the same high numbers.

Second, HP has been making less than The Grinch every week since the week after Thanksgiving (they made almost the same amount Thanksgiving weekend). Harry Potter would need to match The Grinch's totals from this point on in order to make it to 300 million. Since it made less 3 weeks in a row, I don't think it will be improving on that performance.

Third: direct competition. While Monsters Inc. will cl;early make less than HP overall, it has been performing better sing the holiday weekend, dropping much less, and I think more families will want to take the kids to see Monsters Inc again than Harry Potter during the Winter holiday period. Lord of the Rings will take away a lot of its older audience (12-13 and up) and Jimmy Neutron will possibly take some more of its audience away, just because its a new movie. (personally I think it looks kind of stupid, but that's me).

Anyway, HP has fallen slightly faster than average, since Thanksgiving, and it dropped during Thanksgiving weekend (unlike Monsters inc), so I think it will continue to fade, though not as fast, until after New Years, wheni thinkit will plummet along with every other movie (with the possible exception of Lord of the Rings).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Your probably right but it will still make at least 280 and maybe make it close to 300, but it does look like its going to fall a little short. Still it has done pretty good overseas and will probably make about 700 million world wide which is amazing really so it is by no means a disapointment.

[Darth23]

Only a disappointment to those who predicted that it would pass TPM and challenge Titanic. :D

I think it's pretty safe to assue that at least the next several films will do really well also.

[BUFFJEDI]

Looks like I may be right:smokin

[Darth23]

Er....

right about what?

HP continues its fall - despite the much hyped Holiday Period. I think Ali and Kate & Leopold are going to take more of its theaters tomorrow. Everything else in the top 12 either lost a bunch of theaters over the weekend or is less than 2 weeks old.

[foxdvd]

I guess the question now with HP is will it hit 800 million World Wide? After this weekend, I think it stands at around 630 million....it made around 40 million this weekend, and so it should still have some steam left for the next few weeks....can it do it?

[foxdvd]

635 million WW for HP that is....

[BUFFJEDI]

About it not making 300 mil (usa) silly:rolleyes :p :p :p :p

[Darth23]

Oh, well that was a whole PAGE ago.

Yeah some are still saying it will pass that mark, but unless it cleans up at the cheep theaters, it probably won't do it.

[Jedieb]

It looks like the X-Mas break gave HP a boost. It actually saw an 8% bump in its weekend gross. It's trudging along and will barely make it to $300M if it does. It's at $267M and should get close to $280M in a couple of weekends. Still, it's the #1 film of the year and even if FOTR blasts past it HP has delievered nicely.

[Darth23]

It's only an 8% bump of you compare the 3 day weekend to the 5 day weekend. :p

HP earned 9.9 million followed by 6.7 million - going Fri-Sun.

That's a 37% decrease.

Of course the holidays are helping it, but it's not getting any weekend increases.

[Champion of the Force]

I can't see it making $300 million now - unless they leave it out for the next 6 months or something. There's too many other films coming out that are fighting for screen space so HP is probably going to be given the boot out of some screens sometime in the near future.

[Jedieb]

I just read what the chart said D23, blame them! :p

HP finished #5 for 12/25. I this week will be its last hurrah. It should still see drops in the 30%'s and finish between $280M-$290M. Now we'll have to wait and see if FOTR can catch it.

[Darth23]

Yeah, but with school stoll out and Chrstmas over everyday can play like Saturday until after the New Year.

It's going to be closer than I thought with the 7 new movies I expected HP to lose a lot more than 100 theaters. Its average is pretty low, but thise 3300 venues are keeping it up.

[Master Yoghurt]

You know, if it keeps on pulling 3M per day, it will surely go above the 300M mark. It is simple mathematics. 3Mx10 days= 30M.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Saying HP wont pass 300 million is now I believe quite clearly wrong. It's going to pass ESB and will get all time top ten. I think 315 million is not out of the question, which is a superb result.

It's now 284 million and still doing well.

[Jedi Master Carr]

But it will drop like a rock after New Years because most kids go back to school and it will less than .5 million a day during the week and probably do about 5 million in the following weekend, it might make it to 300 but barley I think.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Even at the rate your suggesting, it will be past 290 million by the end of next week and will shortly go past Sixth Sense and into the top ten of all time. I would imagine there will be a news blitz about that and also at 300 million. Even if it is winding down on it's run, it has still got 20 million or so left in it easily.

[Darth23]

I was wrong aboot it not making 300 million. :o

I lost 10 bucks too. :p

When it started making 3 million a day after Christmas, that was pretty much it. Mostly I thought it would be at around 2500 theaters, not still over 3000.

I think it will totally fade once the New Year starts, but it should have enough momentum to make it past 300 million.

[BUFFJEDI]

that means i'll be wrong too!!! :( :( :(

[Jedieb]

HP got a boost from the holiday break that surprised most of us. The question now is whether it will be the ONLY film of 2001 to cross the $300M mark. We're going to have to give FOTR a couple of weeks before we can start guessing if it has the legs to hit $300M.

Darth23, if you start saving some spare change now you should easily have that $10 by the time HP gets to $300M. I hope this bet doesn't break your bank. ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think LOTR has a chance and think it wil defintely make it 250, predicted 330 though and I guess I will have to stand by it regardless.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Well, by now Harry Potter will have gotten past 293 million and into the all time top ten. I'm still thinking 315 - 320 million is the top figure at the end of it's run, but its starting to show it has some legs.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it will do that much, I'd say 310 max mostly because it should lose a lot of screens though (Beautiful Mind gets a wider release and that POC Imposter comes out then one new movie comes out next weekend and Black Hawk Down goes wide. Also with kids in school I am sure it didn't not make anymoney today or yesterday, it needs 2 million to get to 293 and I be surprised if it did the last two days, it probably will make it on Friday though. It will make 300 but not by too much and also I disagree about legs I think The FOTR has much stronger legs than HP which is event by its small declines so far.

[Master Yoghurt]

Actually, HP reached 293 on wednesday. I have to agree with Marcus about HP's legs. I think it is possible it will do better than what he predicts. In fact, HP should hit 300M by saturday.

Chart of HP's performance so far:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/data/harrypotter/

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it will hit 300 by saturday maybe sunday, It think it might do 6 or 7 million for the weekend I don't think it will do that in two days, I still think it will lose some screens to the films I mentoned and fall below 3000 screens that will hurt it some.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Errr... you could be right Yog. There distinctly seems to be a second wind happening here. It has a a bit of a shove along with the USA holidays. Seems it's still doing million dollar days, 315 million could be low. Pretty impressive really.

[Jedieb]

I really think HP's numbers are going to drop next week. Kids will be back in school and they'll have gotten their Potter fixes. I don't think we'll be seeing too many more million dollar days.

[Marcus Telcontar]

Harry Potter has broken 300 million!

I still think 320 million is the minimum it will do.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think 320 is the maxium, if that much. It only made 6 millon this weekend and also its screen total is getting cut its down to 2600 screens and probably now will conntinue to decrease, I'd say it makes between 310-315 max.

[Jedieb]

HP's International numbers are pretty impressive. It's just passed TPM and crossed the $500M mark. I'm not sure how many markets it still has left to open in, but it could end up going over $600M-$700M. HP could end being only the second film to gross over $1B worldwide. Pretty impressive, although I think that FOTR may hit that mark as well if Austrailia is any indication.

[BUFFJEDI]

,

[Darth23]

The holidays definitely helped HP. It made $340,000 on Monday, compared to around 3 million a day between 12/25 and 1/2, and almost 1 million a day the week before that.

I think it opened in many countries within a few weeks of opening ibn the US and the UK.