So.....Any Oscar predictions?

[ReaperFett]

I see a two way fight between Gladiator and Snatch


BEST FILM
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR(Olly Reed, Crowe's mate, Vinnie Jones and Alan Ford)
BEST SOUNDTRACK
BEST COSTUME
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

[foxdvd]

Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon... :) (and that was not a joke.)

[Bromine]

Not watching or following the Oscars anymore, especially after last year's poodoo pile.

[Jedi Master Kyle]

Amen!

[Jedieb]

Best Supporting Actor:
Brister's Dog

[JonathanLB]

Yes, I made an oath last year that I would not ever watch the Awards again, at least for a very long time, so I will hold to that. I will not watch them. I'll read about what happens, that is great, but I am totally apathetic. I do not give a wampa's severed hand.

I think that Almost Famous has a 90% chance of getting a Best Picture nomination, it's just what they're looking for and Jerry Maguire pulled it off, this one is a sure deal.

Gladiator has a good chance of getting a best picture nomination, but don't hold your breath. The Academy is known for mistakes like this, but then again Braveheart won Best Pic in 1995 and this is a similar type of movie, so it's hard to know what to expect.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon...well, what is it eligible for? If it is considered a foreign film, which it should be, then it will almost surely take Best Foreign Picture. It's a critical favorite and audiences love it, it's a sure deal.

If it is actually going to be counted with the rest of the movies because of its US release, well, that would rock...

I'm not aware of the other contenders, I'll have to wait until the end of the year before I have seen the other movies that might get nominations.

What ARE currently the 5 best movies of the year? Well that's totally different from what will be nominated, lol.

1) Gladiator
2) The Patriot
3) X-Men
4) Mission: Impossible 2
5) Pitch Black

Then, you have Almost Famous at a not-too-distant 6th place. These are my 4 star movies of the year and all five of my top movies are major Hollywood fare, so you tell me whether they'll get nominated for anything outside of effects or not! LOL. Of course not.

Pitch Black will not get anything from anything, I'd bet $50 on that right now. It doesn't deserve anything, though, so that's fine. It was a sweet movie in the middle of the off-season, but its effects are fairly basic...

I would say Vin Diesel for Best Actor, but come on, you have to have some lines in a movie to get a nomination like that. Even though I love Pitch Black, it obviously is not a movie that would receive any critical acclaim for much of anything...

Special Effects this year:
The Perfect Storm
X-Men
Hollow Man

Those are all close, I would vote for X-Men, then Hollow Man, then Perfect Storm, even if ILM did it...

I'd be happy with any of those winning, though, unlike last year when there was a VERY CLEAR #1 as an actual objective and measurable award here, and they screwed it up. It's like saying 34 US medals is not as good as 24 Chinese ones or something, it's mathematically incorrect.

[Dutchy]

I have no idea yet who's gonna be nominated. I only saw 17 2000 releases so far. Of those I'd say Gladiator has a chance of a nod and MAYBE Erin Brockovich (a Best Actress nod for Roberts is a shoo-in, IMO).

[BristerM]

Actually, in retrospect, TPM did not have a cut-and-dry oscar race last year like everyone was saying. I watched The Matrix recently, and I'm sorry to say, the effects in The Matrix were much better than TPM's effects. To me, TPM just seemed too cartoonish to me. The Matrix was very real. It'll be ten years before a movie comes out that can top the reality of the effects of The Matrix.

[flagg]

People jumping up in the air and spinning round in slow motion was more realistic and impressive than the digitally created worlds of TPM?
I think it will take many years for the Oscars to recover from that travesty.

[Jedieb]

"I do not give a wampa's severed hand." That's actually pretty funny Jon.
I think we'll see TPS walk away with the special effects Oscar. It has the added bonus of being a serious drama behind it. I have no doubt that the X-Men looks spectacular, but the travails of the Andrea Dorea's crew are just a tad more gut wrenching than Wolverine and his buddies. The Academy will eat it up.

[Darth23]

Actually I've seen Matrix effects in tv commercials lately. :-P


Well Gladiator SHOULD get some nominations -Especialy cinematography. costumes, sets, that kind of thing. I think it deserves a best picture nom, but that's me. ;)

[Bromine]

Matrix:
-"Bullet-time" effects that were developed much earlier, first appearing on a Dutch milk commercial, I believe.
-Some liqui-metal stuff with a mirror. Nothing too new there.

TPM:
-The space battles, all CG
-Queen's ship. Very cool.
-Jar-Jar Binks. The life-like way his ears and clothes move is truly awe-inspiring.
-Watto, Sebulba, Boss Nass, others. Each one is a work of art.
-The podrace. That was just awesome!
-the battle droids. I can't even tell when they're real and when they're CG.
-The lightsabre duel. Done in front of a bluescreen, people! And remember the force fields?
-The gungan/droid battle. Just the scope of the opening scene was mind-blowing.

[ReaperFett]

Matrix special effects: Taken largely from Gap adverts and Blade(Like so much in that film) IMHO

[Jedi Master Kyle]

So far, the only movie I've seen this year that IMO deserves a best picture nod is Gladiator. I hope Julia Roberts is at least nominated for best actress for Erin Brokovich. X-Men, TPS and Hollow Man is going to walk away with the best effects award for sure. I tend to agree with Jedieb, TPS' dramatic edge will put it over the top.

[Bromine]

I liked X-Men's effects because of the way it was integrated so well into the story. Whether it was assorted objects held in mid-air by Magneto, or that cool 3D dynamic map, the effects were just seamless with the rest of the story. There were a lot of spots where they could have just paused the action so you could stare at the amazing effects, but they kept pushing along so you sort of went, "Hey, was that kid walking on water? Neat!"

[JonathanLB]

Yeah the 350 effects shots in the Matrix were a lot more impressive than the 2,100 in TPM. I agree totally. lol.

Not only were there about 7 times less effects SHOTS, each shot with effects in TPM had tons of effects, each shot with effects in The Matrix had hardly any.

The Matrix did nothing groundbreaking whatsoever and nothing that will influence movies forever or continue the advancement of effects in movies. Star Wars: ANH did that back in 1977 and so have all of the Star Wars movies since then, but especially TPM because it came so much later and once again catapulted the technology ahead.

I absolutely loved The Matrix, but mainly for its plot and its concept. It is not as original as some people give it credit for, because there have been movies that use the concept of a fake reality, such as The Truman Show and Dark City, both excellent movies. There is also The Thirteenth Floor, but that came after The Matrix (it was still really good, even thought it was basically a box office dud). The Matrix worked really well because the pacing was essentially perfect, the plot flowed really well and was super interesting, and it had the "cool" factor. The action and effects are great, so that adds to it, but come on, TPM vs. The Matrix? LOL.

The Academy will never recover from that mistake, and that's what it is, a mistake. Matrix was done by a bunch of amateur's that have never won an award for anything in their lives, TPM was done by industry veterans. There is a huge difference. If you really think those squid-like things, the Sentinels, looked at all realistic...get your eyes checked. That was not one of the more impressive parts about The Matrix, but they're good enough, so it's excusable.

TPM is a visual masterpiece, a moving canvas, essentially. Thanks to the hard work of hundreds of people at ILM.

You see a scene in The Matrix and what you get is reality with a few effects. You see a scene in TPM and what you get is a totally artificial, totally new world! It is entirely different and far more impressive.

[DarthAce]

Were here i go:
some BEST FILM/oscar may be's:AlmostFamous,High Fidelty,Cast Away,Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,Enemy at the Gates,Erin Brockovich,Gladiator,Nurse Betty,O Brother, Where Art Thou?,Remember the Titans,Shadow of the Vampire,Thirteen Days,Unbreakable,The Grinch,The Legend of Bagger Vance,The Perfect Storm,The Patriot,Pay it forward,Wonder Boys!:)

[Dutchy]

it was still really good, even thought it was basically a box office dud.

Why shouldn't it be good if it's a boxoffice dud? Boxoffice says NOTHING about a movie's quality.

[DvdJervs]

The Academy will never recover from that mistake, and that's what it is, a mistake.
In your opinion of course. There are others who would disagree.

TPM may have been technically far superior to The Matrix, but it usually comes down to much more than that. Often it comes down to which one people simply thought was better, and I can understand why The Matrix would get nods in that regard. At times when I was watching TPM I felt as though I waas seeing scenes out of a computer agme, not a movie (eg. the pod race, the gungan/droid battle etc).

[Jedieb]

My take on the Matrix V. TPM Oscar issue has always been that the Academy voters took a David V. Goliath view of the two movies and their effects. They went with the "underdogs". The scrappy new kids that came out of nowhere. Kids that may have reminded them of the "amatuers" who burst upon the scene back in 77 with a film called Star Wars. I would have voted for TPM's effects, but that's just me.
As far as the Oscars go, they really don't have anything to recover from. Aside from some die-hard fans, most viewers and fans of the Oscars could care less about this issue. It just doesn't matter. Who's hosting is a much bigger deal than which movie got snubbed in the effects category in 99. If the Oscars can bounce back from Whoopie hosting every 3 or 4 years then believe me they'll survive this. It's just not a big deal.

[Bromine]

I agree, Jedieb. I don't think most people care who wins ANY of the categories, except the big four: Best Picture, Director, Actor, and Actress. Even those usually are forgotten after a few years.
There have been bigger Oscar "mistakes"; even die-hard Titanic fans must admit it won an obscene amount of Oscars (Was it 8?). Then there was "Shakespeare in Love" winning a year or two back, and while it may have been a good movie, I haven't heard anyone say it was their favorite of the year. Many people felt there were other movies like "Saving Private Ryan" that were more deserving.

The bottom line is, whether it be books, theatre, movies, or anything else, awards really don't mean very much. I bet you can look through a list of past award-winners and find the same percentage of duds as you would looking at a list of all movies(or books, etc) made that year.

[ReaperFett]

I have been dissapointed with the Oscars since Armageddon won nothing. WHAT DREAMS MAY COME? MARIAH CAREY & WHITNEY HOUSTON? GAH? No nomination for Buscemi either

[flagg]

I don't care about any awards that ignores Martin Scorsese, Tim Burton, Danny Elfman, Kubrick (too late to rectify that now), etc.
I do agree that it was only Star Wars fans upset about The Matrix winning. Still, I believe in ten years when people compare the two films they won't be able to understand how TPM's effects didn't win. Even if The Matrix was a better film (which I don't agree with) that doesn't mean it deserved to sweep the technical awards.

[Jedieb]

That's a good point flagg. I think 10 years from now anyone who's interested enough to look back at the Matrix's technical Oscars will not understand how it could have possibly beaten TPM. I bet you'll have some people ask; "I didn't even know those movies were released in the same year. What was the academy thinking?" Most of us here thought TPM was a better movie than the Matrix, but I don't think that's true of the academy voters. TPM's 3 nominations and 0 victories are certainly proof of that. The academy was simply an audience that TPM wasn't able to penetrate as successfully as Titanic or even the Matrix. The proof is in the results. I'm not saying I agree with them, I'm just saying that's how the Academy felt about TPM.

[ReaperFett]

I still think it is based on Lucas' status in the directors guild as well though

[Doc Milo]

Don't get me started on the Oscars! I've never put any credence in anything the Academy had to say, even before last year's TPM snub. Last year was just further proof for me.

It is now, and always has been, a self-congratulatory pat on the back by a bunch of Hollywood elitists who want to make themselves seem important.

No, the Academy won't need to "recover" from last year. To me, last year's debacle was totally expected. What do they need to recover from -- the fact that they got something wrong? Well, surprise surprise! IMO, they usually get most stuff wrong. I wouldn't expect they'd need to recover from something that's pretty much par for the course they're playing.

[bronto]

So far I would say "Almost Famous" and "Nurse Betty" have the best chance of being nominated in a few catagories.

As much as I liked "The Patriot", Gladiator" , and The "X-Men". A nomination isn't likely.