Castaway - So much for Summer Blockbusters

[Darth23]

Castaway passed MI:2 this weekend to become the second highest BO performer of 2000. Both Castaway and the number on movie, The Grinch were release during the end of the year holiday seasons.

It kind of seems like Winter movies have a better chance of making a killing than the summer movies do. I think it's the holidays, combined witht he fact that a lot of weaker movies come out in Jan and Feb, giving them more time to hang around. During the Spring and Summer, there's more pressure on the somewhat older films from the 'new big thing' coming out each week.

I guess that means that Ep 2's best shot of passing Titanic would be to come out the week before Thanksgiving, or the week before Christmas.

[CMJ]

The fact that the 2 highest grossers of 2000 came out in November and December is strange though. Usually that is not the case. In '99 for example TPM and SS both were issued in the summer. It was just an odd occurance this year. I mean think about it....GRINCH had a pre-sold audience(kids and everyone else...thats a hell of a famous story) and CASTAWAY has Hanks, who is one of THE premiere stars in all the world.

[Jedieb]

For obvious reasons, we'll never see a SW movie released during the same time we saw Titanic, Grinch, and Castaway, but it would be interesting to see just how much of a boost, if any, a SW movie would receive. Yeah, you've got the holiday break, but your also looking at school cutting down on the number of multiple viewing that kids would generate. I don't think a winter release date would help ANY prequel topple Titanic, but it'd be an interesting experiment.

[General Ceel]

Some movies make money, some don't regardless of when they are released. If people want to see the movie they will. But just how much SW would make with a winter release would depend on how long it stayed on the big screen before being pulled.

[Darth23]

That's what I was trying to get at. If it was released in the winter - it would probably play in the theaters longer.

Not that I think that SW should move from it's Wednesday , the week before Memorial Day weekend.

[JonathanLB]

I think that it would have obvious positive effects to release a Star Wars movie during the winter, and obvious negative ones.

If you put it out in December, it would probably play through April or so, because as it is, the movie was in many theaters through August and September even when released in May.

I think that overall it would probably hurt the Star Wars films significantly. The winter season is a benefit to R and PG-13 movies. Adults are not nearly as likely to see a movie 20 times in theaters as kids are, because of time factors mainly, and whatever other reasons. Kids have time in the summer to watch Episode II (or whatever SW movie) numerous times, but during the school year their parents may not have time to take them, they may not have time to go, and even college students may not get in as many viewings because of studying.

It's obviously hard to say what the overall effect would be, whether the positives would outweigh the negatives, or the other way around. Maybe both would offset, and the lower weekday grosses would probably make for much smaller weekend-to-weekend declines (in the area of 8-15%), then the longer running time in theaters would probably make up for the slower season. Hard to say.

I think that right now, all factors considered, I am changing my mind about which prequel has the best chance at beating Titanic (from III to II).

In the last 9 months, General Cinemas, Edwards Cinemas, Loews Cinemas, Carmike Cinemas, and Mann's Theater Chain declared Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. In the last one month, two of those chains raised ticket prices significantly (that I know of...)

Regal, the nation's largest chain, is $2 billion in debt according to published reports. They probably won't file for bankruptcy because the banks will cut them some slack; they want their money back of course. But, there is a strong chance that within 6 more months, they'll also go bankrupt.

Because of these bankruptcies, ticket prices are rising. There is still a year remaining, and as happened with TPM, theaters will raise prices again just before Episode II arrives.

Adding to the inflation of ticket prices is the possible strike of, essentially, all of Hollywood. Because two strikes might begin in the late spring and early summer of this year, the production schedule already reflects the possibility with no new films starting production after this month. If the strike occurs, which seems likely at this point, then very few films would be ready for release during the summer of 2002. Summer 2001, of course, would be utterly unaffected. Fall and early winter of 2001 would also be *mostly* unaffected, except for possible teen flicks that can be made in 8 or 9 months. Nevertheless, mostly unaffected with heavy hitters such as Harry Potter and LOTR already scheduled. The industry would start to feel the well drying up by late winter of 2002, and by spring the shortage of new films would be very obvious, with no teen flicks coming out, no major blockbusters ready for release or even in production, and a dark summer looming ahead...with only one bright spot: Episode II.

Because Star Wars movies take much longer to make than most normal blockbusters, and require far more time in post-production, Episode II actually benefits greatly. A normal blockbuster that shot in the summer of 2000 (like Episode II) would be ready for release by 2001's summer, but the prequel takes a year more post production work (and reshoots this month I think) to complete, which is the only reason that, unlike other films, it will be ready for summer 2002.

The strike is very serious, and if it happens, it needn't last long to ruin most of the movie slate for that summer. If it lasted only 3 months (from the final strike date of June 30), then filming would resume in October, and I personally see no way that a major blockbuster could film for 2 months (into December for instance) and then be ready by May or June. Although, possibly July and August. Most experts agree that, should the strike occur, it'll last at least 6 months, though, and (god forbid) maybe longer than a year.

Now, I hate to sound like a pessimist, but I hope that the strike does occur for a few reasons. First, sure I'd love to see Episode II just annihilate a bunch of inferior movies and hold the box office crown for the entire summer, something that has never happened in the last 15 years or so. Second, I think that the studios would get innovative, and use some stars that are NOT obligated to strike. I'm thinking lots and lots of Hong Kong action movies, which is already a trend that is picking up steam. I think that a strike would really help to bring those movies to prominence, so it would be a positive in some ways.

Also, I don't plan on seeing other movies during the summer of 2002 anyway, so I'd rather have the excuse that "there is nothing else out anyway," instead of having to say, "Damn that movie looks good, but I guess I'll rent it later."

How ironic would that be if Episode II triumphed over Titanic because of 1) inflation and 2) no competition?

Gee, I'm trying to remember why Titanic beat ANH, oh yeah, that's right, inflation and no competition! LOL, now that is poetic justice.

Here's hoping the strike proceeds as planned! :)

[Darth23]

The theaters are going into bankruptcy beacuse the over built megaplexes, and because the number or people who got to the movies is flat or declining. Neither of these factors warrants ticket price increases, I think.

If their market isn't growing and if there's more competition from other chains, theaters should be lowering ticket prices to get more butts in the seats. Especially if the ecomony is slowing down. I think a lot of people are used to seeing a movie on video, or pay per view or cable these days.

Hopefully the shakeout will cause some clever companies to move away from the Ultra Mondo Gigaplex model and try something else.

[Jedieb]

Ticket prices in NYC are going up to $10 so the increases have already begun in some areas. Darth23 makes a good point on how chains have built too many multiplexes. I read an article recently that stated the number of screens in the U.S. is somewhere in the neighborhood of 38,000 and that chains are suffering because there are simply too many screens out there. Things will start looking op for chains once the number of screens drops down closer to 30,000.

**Senility Alert**
(Actually, I,m not positive on the actual numbers, but I'm sure about the gist of the article; too many screens.)

As much of a benefit that inflation and a lack of competition will bring I still don't think it will be enough. The love story and dark tone of EP2 & EP3 will keep grosses down. I really think that both EP2 & EP3 will not only fall short of Titanic, but TPM as well. I'm looking forward to next spring when we all start cranking out our EP2 guesses. I'm thinking Jan.1 would be a good date to start the fun.

[Jedi Master Kyle]

Jedieb, are you an I the only ones who believe that Ep2 will fall short of TPM? There must be others?

[Jedieb]

I'm sure there are a few more pessimists out there. ;) Hopefully, we'll both be proved wrong and EP2 or EP3 will grab the top spot form the boat flick. I doubt it, but I'd love to be proved wrong summer 02.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I personally don't think either will pass Titanic but I think both films have strong chances of passing 400. I think Ep2 will make somewhere between 400-500 but thats an early call I would rather not make a better estimate until next year. I think it could pass TPM but it really depends on several factors
The critics: if the critics rave about it that will defently help its chances
Competition: at this point we have no clue what else will be out there and won't know until after June when we will know if the SAG and WGA have gone on strike
Children: This is another x factor. I know many kids ages 5-10 who loved TPM if most of these kids go and see EP 2 (dragging their parents along) I think that will give it an excellent shot as well.
Finally the diehards. How many times will we go and see it. I can't even predict that but if we love it like I think we will then we can see a similiar if not a greater repeat viewing than TPM.
Other than that guess I made I would not want to make a very calculated guess until next year after we seen the early market campaign for the movie. By then we will see the title, the first trailer, and probably the first poster.

[JonathanLB]

I don't think it's super likely that either Episode II or III will beat Titanic either, but I think that both will clear $500 million. That depends, though, we shall see.

I also would be happy if one of the two films could just make it to about $550 million, because then a re-release would surely knock Titanic off the top (and the release will come, probably 2006 or 2007 of all six films, even McCallum said he wants to make that happen).