Ok, Oscar Pick Time!

[Darth23]

Anyone have a list of the major categories?

<:-)

[CMJ]

Best Picture
CHOCOLAT
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
ERIN BROKOVICH
GLADIATOR
TRAFFIC
For a change this category is very up in the air(about every 3-4 years, on average, it's a close race...the other times everyone knows who will win). I see GLADIATOR as the frontrunner but CTHD and TRAFFIC are nipping at it's heels. I believe the martial arts film will win in a photo finish(much to my dismay, it's probably the 4th best out of the nominees...but oh well I'll deal). My pick would be GLADIATOR, or even TRAFFIC.

DIRECTOR
Stephen Daldry(BILLY ELLIOT)
*Ang Lee(CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON)
Steven Soderburgh(ERIN BROKOVICH)
Ridley Scott(GLADIATOR)
Steven Soderburgh(TRAFFIC)
Ang Lee has won every major precursor...he's a good bet. Soderburgh may pull out a win if his admirers for EB and TRAFFIC unite behind just 1 film. I'd probably vote for Soderburgh because he directed 2 great films in the same year...so he was the Year's best director(I'd vote for his direction of TRAFFIC).

ACTOR
Javier Bardem(BEFORE NIGHT FALLS)
*Russell Crowe(GLADIATOR)
Tom Hanks(CASTAWAY)
Ed Harris(POLLOCK)
Geoffrey Rush(QUILLS)
This is a tough category. Hanks seemed to have the early lead but momentum shifted to Crowe near the end. Harris will get alot of support from veteran actors and could beat both of them. I don't believe Bardem or Rush stand much of a chance. I would vote for Hanks.

ACTRESS
Joan Allen(THE CONTENDER)
Juliette Binoche(CHOCOLAT)
Ellen Burstyn(REQUIEM FOR A DREAM)
Laura Linney(YOU CAN COUNT ON ME)
*Julia Roberts(ERIN BROKOVICH)
Julia will win...no contest. Joan Allen would be my choice but Roberts did give her best ever performance and is a deserving winner.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Bridges(THE CONTENDER)
Willem Dafoe(SHADOW OF A VAMPIRE)
*Benicio Del Toro(TRAFFIC)
Albert Finney(ERIN BROKOVICH)
Joaquin Phoenix(GLADIATOR)
This one is a 2 way race between Finney(the old guard) and Del Toro. Benicio gave one of the most critically acclaimed performances of the year...and will pull it out, despite a heavy voting block going for Finney. I would vote for Dafoe.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Judi Dench(CHOCOLAT)
Marcia Gay Harden(POLLOCK)
*Kate Hudson(ALMOST FAMOUS)
Frances McDormand(ALMOST FAMOUS)
Julie Walters(BILLY ELLIOT)
All five women could win this one. They all have solid support...but I think the Hollywood Royalty thing will make Hudson come out on top. My pick would be Dench.

ART DIRECTION
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS
*GLADIATOR
QUILLS
VATEL
I believe the Roman epic will win over Ang's film. It could go the other way though. I don't see the other nominee's winning this one. My pick would be GLADIATOR.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AMORES PERROS
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
DIVIDED WE FALL
EVERYBODY FAMOUS
THE TASTE OF OTHERS
Is this even a contest?

MAKEUP
THE CELL
*HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS
SHADOW OF THE VAMPIRE
I expect Carrey to get his Oscar....well kind of anyways. :) SHADOW could pull the upset(and would be my choice).

SCORE
CHOCOLAT
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
GLADIATOR
MALENA
THE PATRIOT
No one should win this but Zimmer...BUT CTHD will. The Academy gives foreign films Best Score a large amount of the time('97 Full Monty, '98 Life is Beautiful being the most recent) which bodes well for MALENA as well.

SONG
Bob Dylan's song from WONDER BOYS will win.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
GLADIATOR
MALENA
O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?
THE PATRIOT
Once again CTHD will win head to head against GLADIATOR. All of these nom's were terrific...but I think I would vote for CTHD.

COSTUME DESIGN
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS
*GLADIATOR
102 DALMATIONS
QUILLS
Another toughie. I think GLADIATOR will win the day because of the AMOUNT of costumes. It would be my choice as well.

FILM EDITING
ALMOST FAMOUS
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
GLADIATOR
*TRAFFIC
WONDER BOYS
These films were all well put together. Something tells me TRAFFIC will win though. The interlocking stories(though not the creation of the editor) make him look good. I believe TRAFFIC would be my choice.

SOUND
CAST AWAY
*GLADIATOR
THE PATRIOT
THE PERFECT STORM
U-571
They will throw GLADIATOR a bone. I would vote for PERFECT STORM.

SOUND EDITING
SPACE COWBOYS
*U-571
U-571 was the only picture nominated in both the sound categories....surely the Academy will reward it once.

VISUAL EFFECTS
*GLADIATOR
HOLLOW MAN
THE PERFECT STORM
The city of Rome will emerge victorious. I'd vote for the STORM.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CHOCOLAT
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?
*TRAFFIC
WONDER BOYS
TRAFFIC is the obvious frontrunner. All of these scripts were great and I would not be dissapointed with any of them winning. On sheer wierdness I'd probably vote for O BROTHER(well I really liked TRAFFIC...so maybe not).

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*ALMOST FAMOUS
BILLY ELLIOT
ERIN BROKOVICH
GLADIATOR
YOU CAN COUNT ON ME
This one is between AF and YCCOM. YCCOM won the Writer's Guild Award...but Cameron Crowe is very well liked...and his movie didn't get nominated in most of the major categories so the Academy may reward him with this. A Photo Finish to be sure. I would've voted for GLADIATOR.

Predicted Tallies:
CTHD - 5 awards
GLADIATOR - 5 awards
TRAFFIC - 3 awards
ALMOST FAMOUS - 2 awards
ERIN BROKOVICH - 1 award
U-571 - 1 award
HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS - 1 award
WONDER BOYS - 1 award

[ReaperFett]

No Way of the Gun, no Snatch, No Olly Reed, no care


Chocolat will win best pic, as Gladiator/CTHD will cancel each other, as happened to Star Wars

[CMJ]

Well SNATCH wasn't eligible since it was released in 2001 in the US. It will be next year though I severly doubtr it will get up for anything...nor should it IMHO. Oliver Reed getting a nomination would've been nice...BUT there were alot of great supporting actor performances this year(my fav Bruce Greenwood didn't get a nom either) so it's hard to complain.

[ReaperFett]

actually, it is valid, as Billy Elliot was released afterwards both times, and the UK date is elligable.


And is Joachim can get a nommo over Olly, it is a sad world

[Darth23]

I'm actually more interested in the Oscars this year than I have been for a few years.

I'm even thinking about going to see Traffic this weekend, and maybe even Crouching Tiger again.

[CMJ]

Actually Reaper...BILLY ELLIOTT came out in November and December, so they didn't have to use the British release dates. The official rule is a film must play in LA for 1 week to qualify. SNATCH never did...so it isn't eligible.

[Darth Turbogeek]

If Chocolat wins anything, I'll go to LA and personally enema the Acadamy. What a POS

Dunno really. CTHD is a shoe in for best foreign film, but the rest, who knows. There are actually some good movies nominated in the catagories and not the usual @#%$, so it will be interesting to see. Gladiator will sweep the award tho I think.

[ReaperFett]

actually, I prefer previous years. 1998 nominations were far better. 99 had its moments

[CMJ]

I tend to think the Academy does a pretty good job. I may not agree with what they award, but it's usually one of the better achievements in the particular category. Oh yeah...DarthTurboGeek....CHOCOLAT was actually a really good film. It's not like Best Picture worthy or anything....but it was on my top 10 list of last year(at #10).

[ReaperFett]

Erin cancels Traffic. Gladiator cancels CTHD. Chocolat is left

[Darth Turbogeek]

CHOCOLAT WAS CRAP!!!! No Oscar, no way!

[CMJ]

But it would be akin to Monmouth University beating Duke in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Possible, I suppose. Likely....not very. I'd say CHOCOLAT's odds are about 35-1.

[JonathanLB]

"Ang Lee has won every major precursor..."

Well you're wrong there, actually. Most people think Ridley Scott is the favorite because he won the most prestigious award, the Directors Guild of America's BEST DIRECTOR award for 2000. I think Ridley has the inside track, but that's not to say he's going to win. The Academy always find a way to screw things up, though Ang Lee still rules.

I hope Gladiator sweeps.

Chocolat looks utterly stupid. I'm glad to hear someone bash that movie, it's sickening to hear how great it is, even some critics didn't like it, I saw plenty of 2.5 star ratings. Same with Gladiator, though, hehe, but I love Gladiator.

This year's nominees are FAR better than normal, except what kind of f***ing IDIOTS would nominate something as trashy as Erin Brockovich? Come on, that's no more worthy than Hollow Man, actually Hollow Man was more enjoyable. Julia Roberts sucks, she's not a very good actrice and she's not very good looking either. She's annoying.

I don't think you can say that Gladiator will cancel Crouching Tiger out, that doesn't make sense. You may be right that Traffic and Erin will cancel each other for the *director* award, but not necessarily for picture.

Traffic was way overrated, unfortunately. It was a very good, 3.5 star movie, though not even close to being one of the top ten best of the year. X-Men was much better, as was The Patriot, Mission: Impossible 2, and tons of other SUMMER blockbusters. They were better produced, more enjoyable films; Traffic wasn't. Hell I thought Art of War was better than Traffic, slightly.

It wasn't a thinking movie either, everyone acts like Traffic is so profound and I keep seeing articles about how it's changing U.S. drug policy or some crap, well it wasn't that great, come on. I really enjoyed it, otherwise I'd not have given it 3.5 stars, which is a darn good rating from me, but I just thought it wasn't anything I'd care to obsess about and it wasn't an influential movie in my life. Romeo Must Die was better too, so if they're going to nominate Traffic, I want to see The Perfect Storm and Romeo Must Die up for Best Picture. That's pretty ridiculous, but no less so than Traffic or Erin in my opinion.

You can clearly tell which movies deserve to be there, and which ones just do not. Chocolat, Erin, and Traffic don't deserve to be there. Replace them with The Patriot, Remember the Titans, and Almost Famous or something and you're looking at a more representative list I think.

[Darth Turbogeek]

I dump on Chocolat.

[ReaperFett]

CTHD and Gladiator may cancel each other out because they were similar films. Its why Star Wars didnt win in 78. I may be why Saving Private Ryan didnt in 98. A similar film is out, and the people are divided

[CMJ]

For someone so good with facts, you got a BIG one wrong. And Lee won the DGA....LOOK it up!!! The night it came out I waited up till like 1 in the morning, while I was sick, to see the news online. So don't tell me who won that award. The DGA almost always predicts the Best Director at the Academy. It only hasn't 4 times in 53 years. It's something rare like only 9 times the winner of Best Director doesn't get Dest Picture....so I'd say CTHD is the likely winner.

As for TRAFFIC...that was a hell of great film. By far and a way lightyears better than all those other flicks you mentioned like ART OF WAR(are you kiddng me?) and THE PATRIOT(unfortunately dissapointing). TRAFFIC would make a great Best Picture. Though it's not my personal choice...I'd say if it won I would be content.

ERIN BROKOVICH was surprisingly good Jon. Hell I think it deserves Best Pic more than CTHD even. It was very well made, great acting, great writing. Hell, I remember when I saw it back last April I was amazed at how much I enjoyed it. The Academy will likely reward the 4th best nominee, which is okay I guess, since it's a good film, but I'll be a tad dissapointed. The great thing about the Academy is sometimes you agree with them...and sometimes you don't...but they always inspire debate among movie people.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Gladiator will take home the prize, I also think scott will win best director here is why. First off CDHT will not win best picture, sure it desevers best foreign film but it is unlikely to win best picture because it is foreign. No completely foreign film has won the oscar, sure there may have been a few british exports but nothing with subtitles. To me the Oscars should be for American films because its an American award, other countries have their own awards like France, Japan, China, etc and they never award American films best pictures so why should we give a forign film best picture. Since most of the Academey are Americans and are biased that is why I think Gladiator will win win and go on to win 9 oscars, I will be very surprised if CDHT won, Traffic I think has a decent shot because of its message. Chocolat has no chance I think, that film is a piece of crap I have no clue why it was nominated, I would watch that never in a million years.

[Doc Milo]

Just a question: Since when does being a good film have anything to do with winning an Oscar?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think your right Doc just because a movie wins an oscar it does not make it a good movie, I can think of two recent films, The Last Emperor, which is really boring and The English Patient a movie I could sleep to.

[Doc Milo]

I remember someone telling me to see The English Patient -- she said: It won the Academy Award.

To me, that's just one more reason not to see a film! :)

I've made it no secret, I haven't had respect for "The Academy" for at least a decade now.

Their blatant bias against SF/Fantasy/genre films in general is one reason . . . but not the only one. If I wanted to see a bunch of hypocrites gather together and pat themselves on the back for five hours, I'd watch CSPAN.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree Doc, I have problem with the Academy myself i have no clue why they nominate all these artsy boring films and then sometimes they pick a deserving movie, Schindler's List, Braveheart, Silence of the Lambs all come to mind but half the time they pick garbage like The English Patient.

[Doc Milo]

Heck, let's look at Titanic.

Does it win if, instead of being an historical drama, it's a SF epic? Like, let's take the script and only change the setting. Everything else is exactly the same, word for word. But, instead of being a boat, it's a luxury cruise spaceliner on its maiden voyage that gets struck by an asteroid that damages its life support systems beyond repair. Cast -- the same. Crew -- the same. Dialogue and story -- the same. Setting different. Genre different. Best pic nomination? Nope. Never in a million years. Why? Because it would be Science Fiction. And Science Fiction is only good for technical, sound, and special effects awards. That's all.

The Academy has nominated and awarded some worthy films, to be sure. But I'm sure it didn't award or nominate them because they were good films. It nominated them because of the internal politics involved (that is, Academy Politics, not national politics.)

The only thing that might get me to watch is if I knew the banned Susan Serandan from ever attending :) Nope. Not even that...

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think you make a valid point the academy usually only nominate certain movies and ignore others. I know sci-fi films but also comedys. How many comedys get nominated, almost none. Personally I think they should seperate the two but I doubt they will. I also don't like how they seem to hate Jim Carrey and you are right Sarandon(sp) does get nominated too much even if its for a bad movie much like Meryl Streep gets nominated just about every year.

[Darth23]

Wow, only ONE person has done a pick for all the big categories so far....


:p

[CMJ]

It's because I love talking Oscars....I could do it all day. There's a few other boards I frequent where thats what we do discuss.

[JonathanLB]

really CMJ? Someone told me otherwise, just shows not to listen to other people I guess. I didn't look it up myself, I don't care that much. Ridley will win, though, not a foreign director.

Your stat makes no sense because most Best Picture winners also take the Best Director award, and 0 foreign films out of 7 nominated have ever won best picture, so the odds are then against CTHD to win that award, and because of that they are against Ang Lee to win the director award since Picture and Director almost always go together. lol, you can think up any combo of facts to prove your point, and that is my point.

Yeah, Oscar winners often suck. That CSpan joke was pretty damn funny, I'm going to remember that.

If someone pulls that "it won the Oscar" tripe on me, I'm not real impressed. Star Wars was the best movie ever in 1977 (not even tied, b/c there were no other SW films), yet it didn't win Best Picture. I'll tell you what it did win, though: $10 billion in total future revenue of itself and related films. lol. I'll take that any day.

If it isn't totally obvious that the Academy Awards are all political, you're living in a dream world. Wake up. TPM had the best costume design of 1999, but wasn't even nominated, let alone did it win. You don't have to be a rocket science to realize it deserved wins in makeup, costumes, effects, sound (2), set design, art direction, etc.

[ReaperFett]

its a ceremony where one category is SPace Cowboys and U-571 for Petes sake! :)

[Darth23]

Well I saw Traffic tonight so I can say that I don't think it really deserves to win anything.

Gimme Gladiator, Crouching Tiger and Almost Famous!!!!

:)

[Dutchy]

Great analysis, CMJ! In that first post of yours. I have only seen Gladiator, Traffic and Erin, but your writing seems to make a lot of sense. I would give none of those movies I saw the Oscar for Best Picture. They just don't deserve it, even though I liked them. Especially Traffic and Erin. Gladitor seems just overrated to me. I hope it won't win for its major nominations.

I'm not even close as interested in the Oscars this year as I was last year. Last year my all time favorite movie year was rewarded, but the movie year 2000 stays ions away from it. Partly because as usual we're way behind here, but this year's picks just pale compared to last year's choices. But then again, there probably wasn't anything better to choose.

[Darth Turbogeek]

I completely disagree. For once there are movies up there that deserve recognition. Franky, Last Oscars were a disgrace. American "Bullshit" was NOT the best film - it was a thinly disguised product of a cat litter box of a cat with a bowel problem. Crass and crap. The Sixth Sense was a mile better.

Just because Gladiator was a film for masses instead of the arty farty set doesnt make it any less worthy. It was quite a film in it's own rightand it deserves success. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is better, but either winning will be a good result.

[Darth23]

I think Ang Lee will win, because he has a history of 'oscar caliber' movies. I DON'T think CTHD will break the Foreign Film Best Picture precedent.


BEST PICTURE:
CHOCOLAT
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :)
ERIN BROKOVICH
*GLADIATOR :
TRAFFIC

DIRECTOR
Stephen Daldry(BILLY ELLIOT)
*Ang Lee(CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON) :)
Steven Soderburgh(ERIN BROKOVICH)
Ridley Scott(GLADIATOR) :)
Steven Soderburgh(TRAFFIC)


ACTOR
Javier Bardem(BEFORE NIGHT FALLS)
*Russell Crowe(GLADIATOR) :)
Tom Hanks(CASTAWAY)
Ed Harris(POLLOCK)
Geoffrey Rush(QUILLS)

ACTRESS
Joan Allen(THE CONTENDER)
Juliette Binoche(CHOCOLAT)
Ellen Burstyn(REQUIEM FOR A DREAM)
Laura Linney(YOU CAN COUNT ON ME)
*Julia Roberts(ERIN BROKOVICH)


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jeff Bridges(THE CONTENDER)
Willem Dafoe(SHADOW OF A VAMPIRE)
*Benicio Del Toro(TRAFFIC)
Albert Finney(ERIN BROKOVICH)
Joaquin Phoenix(GLADIATOR)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Judi Dench(CHOCOLAT)
Marcia Gay Harden(POLLOCK)
*Kate Hudson(ALMOST FAMOUS) :)
Frances McDormand(ALMOST FAMOUS)
Julie Walters(BILLY ELLIOT)

ART DIRECTION
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON
HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS
GLADIATOR
QUILLS
VATEL


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
AMORES PERROS
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :) (duh)
DIVIDED WE FALL
EVERYBODY FAMOUS
THE TASTE OF OTHERS


MAKEUP
THE CELL
*HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS
SHADOW OF THE VAMPIRE

SCORE
CHOCOLAT
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :)
*GLADIATOR :)
MALENA
THE PATRIOT :) (John Williams?)

SONG
CINEMATOGRAPHY
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :)
*GLADIATOR :)
MALENA
O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?
THE PATRIOT


COSTUME DESIGN
*CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :)
HOW THE GRINCH STOLE CHRISTMAS
GLADIATOR :)
102 DALMATIONS
QUILLS


FILM EDITING
ALMOST FAMOUS :)
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :)
*GLADIATOR :)
TRAFFIC
WONDER BOYS


SOUND
CAST AWAY
*GLADIATOR :)
THE PATRIOT
THE PERFECT STORM
U-571

SOUND EDITING
SPACE COWBOYS
*U-571

VISUAL EFFECTS
GLADIATOR
HOLLOW MAN
*THE PERFECT STORM

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
CHOCOLAT
CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON :)
O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU?
*TRAFFIC
WONDER BOYS

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
*ALMOST FAMOUS :)
BILLY ELLIOT
ERIN BROKOVICH
GLADIATOR :)
YOU CAN COUNT ON ME

[Darth23]

Looks like I got 11 out of 19. :)

I got switched up between Crouching Tiger and Gladiator on a few.

I'm pretty happy with the way most of the awards went. I actually saw Traffic yesterday, so I'm not as impressed with what it did.

[CMJ]

Actually I did very well. I got 15 out of a possible 19 right. I was happy with a few of the ones I got wrong(Harden, GLADIATOR for Picture, Soderburgh for Director) and a tad dissapointed with some of the ones I got right. Overall a great, FUN evening. It's not often there's actually DRAMA about what's going to win Best Picture. But going into the biggie CTHD, GLADIATOR, & TRAFFIC all had 4 awards apiece. Man...what a race! I'd LOVE to know how close the final vote tally was...I bet it was razor thin.

[Darth23]

I put smileys next to all the ones I didn't have a problem with winning. I was pretty happy with most of the awards. They could have given the winners a little more time to speak though.