Box Office Contest Round 1! May 4th

[Darth23]

Deadline Friday night -
[EDIT - 3:00 am Board Time - Midnight Pacific Time]

Pick the Top 5 movies for the weekend and their grosses.

:)

Three Star Wars Prizes will be given out at the end of the season (Labor Day weekend). Side bets are allowed.

[CMJ]

1. THE MUMMY RETURNS - 48.1M
2. DRIVEN 7.5M
3. BRIDGET JONES'S DIARY - 5.9M
4. ALONG CAME A SPIDER - 4.3M
5. SPY KIDS 4.0M

[Darth23]

I'll start with the easy part and add the Gorsses before the deadline after my careful calculations are finished, and my Cray supercomputer is done with it's new Box Office statistical modelling package. :p

I THINK there's only 1 major movie starting this week.

1. The Mummy Returns - 45.1
2. Driven - 6.7
3. Bridget Jones' Diary - 5.1
4. Spy Kids - 4.1
5. Along Came a Spider - 3.6

[Albi Wan Yankovi]

1. Star Wars $1.000000000000000000000000000000000000000.9
2. Empire Strikes Back $1000000000000000.6
3. Return of the Jedi $100000000000.4
4. Star Wars: Epsiode I- The Phantom Menace $100000000.4 million
5. The Mummy Returns $.00000000001 million

I think I may win ;)

[Jedi Master Carr]

There is no other major movie opening wide tomorrow I just looked it up. Unforuntely the Mummy Returns will be #1 and open huge the first one opened with 43 million. I think this one will make over 50 but will not set a record. Here are my guesses, I reserve the right to change my grosses estimates before the deadline.
1 Mummy Returns 50.85
2 Driven 7.14
3 Bridget Jones Diary 5.72
4 Spy Kids 4.13
5 Along Came a Spider 3.87

[Darth23]

uh oh - I just found a problem with the rules.

One 1 person per film can win the movie gross portion - which means that you have to change your guess for Spy Kids. If 2 people make the same guess for the amount a movie grosses, then the first person to make the guess wins.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Oh I didn't realize that you had the same guess, I think I wil go the extra decimal. I'll edit it for you because I don't want to retype it.

[Darth23]

Cool.

[Darth23]

2 and a half hours until deadline.

:)

[CMJ]

Over 24M on Friday!?!? I think I guessed WAY too low.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think my guess may have been too low. Hopefully less people will see it today and tomorrow because the early buzz that I heard from people who saw it said it stuck. So, if I had to guess now I think it will make around 58-60 million.

[Darth23]

Once you're in the 50 million range, it's pretty hard top imagine a movie takign in 60 or 70 million until it actually starts to happen.

Especially since last weeks number 1 monie made 12 million. :-P

[Jedi Master Carr]

Hey Darth what was the highest guess on CCnet. I am just curious, I still don't think it will break TPM's record at least I hope it doesn't. The Mummy Returns looks to be such a bad film and I think it will get bad word of mouth and next two days we might see lower grosses.

[Darth23]

CMJ
1. THE MUMMY RETURNS - 48.1M
2. DRIVEN 7.5M
3. BRIDGET JONES'S DIARY - 5.9M
4. ALONG CAME A SPIDER - 4.3M
5. SPY KIDS 4.0M


Darth23
1. The Mummy Returns - 45.1
2. Driven - 6.7
3. Bridget Jones' Diary - 5.1
4. Spy Kids - 4.1
5. Along Came a Spider - 3.6

Albi Wan Yankovi
1. Star Wars $1.000000000000000000000000000000000000000.9
2. Empire Strikes Back $1000000000000000.6
3. Return of the Jedi $100000000000.4
4. Star Wars: Epsiode I- The Phantom Menace $100000000.4 million
5. The Mummy Returns $.00000000001 million


Jedi Master Carr
1 Mummy Returns 50.85
2 Driven 7.14
3 Bridget Jones Diary 5.72
4 Spy Kids 4.13
5 Along Came a Spider 3.87

Qui Gon Fission
1. The Mummy Returns - 54.7
2. Driven - 5.9
3. Bridget Jones' Diary - 4.7
4. Spy Kids - 3.8
5. Along Came a Spider - 2.9

Darth Rage
1. The Mummy Returns - 60
2. Driven - 8
3. Bridget Jones' Diary - 6
4. Spy Kids - 2
5. Along Came a Spider - 4 ''


DaBoSsNaStY
1=TMR-50 million
2=Driven- 8.2 million
3=BJD-7 million
4=Spy Kids-6 million
5=ACS-5 million


Mu Satach
1 - The Mummy Returns - 68
2 - Driven - 6.8
3 - Bridget Jones Diary - 6.2
4 - Spy Kids 3.1
5 - Along Came a Spider 2.5

sirdizzy
1 the mummy return 52.43 mil
2 driven 9.12 mil
3 bridgete jones diary 7.65 mil
4 spy kids 6.80 mil
5 along cam a spider 4.46 mil

The LATE Yaddle's Little Helper:
1 The Mummy Returns: $52.5m
2 Driven $6.5m
3 1Bridget Jones Diary $5.8m
4 Spy Kids $3.1m
5 Along Came A Spider. $2.7m

sorry it's not sorted.

Mu guessed 68 million Darth Rage guessed 60.

[General Ceel]

"The Mummy Returns is well on its way to setting records for a non-holiday weekend. Showbizdata.com reports the film made an estimated $24.1 million on Friday alone. The movie could easily approach $60 million and be threatening the record set by The Phantom Menace in 1999. Stay tuned!"

[CMJ]

70.11 estimated for MUMMY RETURNS! Geez!!

[Jedieb]

I just saw that too CMJ. Pretty amazing. I guess Mu Snatch will take the prize. I know I wouldn't have guessed anything over $60M if I'd had the chance. Even if the final figures fall below $70M this is the kind of opening the studio was praying for.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I can't believe it made that much because it looks like its a piece of crap. A film that I will never see because I hated the first one. So what is Pearl Harbor going to make then 120 million not to mention EP 2 which will probably break this record.

[Jedi Master Kyle]

I was stupified at that number, that's incredible. I think Pearl Harbor will pull off similar numbers, but one thing's for certain, Episode 2 fans will be out in droves to reclaim the title of biggest opener ever.

[CMJ]

TPM had like the highest non-holiday weekend. LOST WORLD still has the highest opener(the 4 day number was like 92M if I remember). I think JP3 will do very well too.

[Darth23]

Top Ten Estimates:
<table border=1><caption align=top>May 4th Weekend Estimates</caption><tr> <th>Rank</td><th>Movie</td><th>Weekend Gross</td><th>Theaters </td><th>Avg.
per Theater</td><th>Total</td> </tr> <tr><td>1)</td> <td align=left>The Mummy Returns </td><td align=right>70.1</td> <td align=right> 3,397 </td><td align=right> 20,639</td><td align=right> 70.1</td></tr> <tr><td>2)</td><td align=left>Driven </td><td align=right> 6.1</td><td align=right>2,905 </td><td align=right> 2,083</td><td align=right>21.6</td></tr> <tr><td>3)</td><td align=left>Bridget Jones </td><td align=right> 6.0</td><td align=right>2,547 </td><td align=right> 2,356</td><td align=right>44.7</td></tr> <tr><td>4)</td><td align=left>Spy Kids </td><td align=right> 4.0</td><td align=right>2,815 </td><td align=right> 1,421</td><td align=right>98.6</td></tr> <tr><td>5)</td><td align=left>Along Came a Spider</td><td align=right> 3.8</td><td align=right>2,573 </td><td align=right> 1,477</td><td align=right>60.0</td></tr> <tr><td>6)</td><td align=left>Crocodile Dundee </td><td align=right> 3.2</td><td align=right>2,141 </td><td align=right> 1,495</td><td align=right>18.0</td></tr><tr><td>7)</td><td align=left>Blow </td><td align=right> 2.4</td><td align=right>1,558 </td><td align=right> 1,540</td><td align=right>44.2</td></tr> <tr><td>8) </td><td align=left>Joe Dirt </td><td align=right> 1.5</td><td align=right>1,783 </td><td align=right> 841</td><td align=right>24.8</td></tr><tr><td>9)</td><td align=left>The Forsaken </td><td align=right> 1.5</td><td align=right>1,514 </td><td align=right> 991</td><td align=right> 5.4</td></tr><tr><td>10)</td><td align=left> One Night at Mc. </td><td align=right> 1.3</td><td align=right>1,814 </td><td align=right>733</td><td align=right> 4.7</td></tr> </table>

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, nobody in the industry would have guessed this, I don't think.

I'd have said $50 million, maybe $45 million even, so I would have been just as wrong as Box Office Guru. You cannot predict a $70 million opening for a film that is literally just pure popcorn entertainment.

I saw it, yes the effects are sweet, and yeah I had fun seeing it, but it was a low-three-star movie, it wasn't anything special at all. I'd never consider seeing it again in theaters and I wouldn't buy it either. Oh well, it was a good night at the movies, and on Friday I knew it was headed for record territory, sorry to say.

My theater had three screens showing it, SOLD OUT ALL SHOWINGS! 9:30? Sold out an hour in advance. 10:30? Sold out. Everything was sold out, doesn't matter what time. TPM only had two screens at this theater, so it was obvious to me by Friday that Mummy Returns had captured enough screens and theaters to seize the record.

It's not about how good a movie is, or how much interest there is, it's how many theaters are playing it AND how much interest exists.

TPM could have made $100 million in three days if it had played in 4,000 theaters, all of the crappy ones, but that's not what LFL wanted, and thank God they didn't do that. No worries, Episode II will creme The Mummy Returns, and in the meantime, congratulations to all of the execs at Universal, haha, because they just hit a homer out of the park. :)