Told Ya Guys -- Teens Break Pearl Harbor BO

[swooshdark]

When The Mummy Returns came out and it shattered the three day opening weekend record a lot of people came out and said Pearl Harbor would go beyond that and set a new Memorial Day weekend record.

I just didn't see the correlation then and I certainly don't now (with just over $20 million on Saturday, PH might be lucky to get $80 million for the 4-day take). It's all about TEENAGERS, people, and I knew they wouldn't be lining up for Pearl Harbor. The Mummy Returns did big box office because its a fun popcorn movie that teenagers and kids love.

Case in point (Saturday's numbers):

Pearl Harbor-- $20.45 million
SHREK-- $16.91

Shrek is clearly drawing the teens and kids this weekend. Infact, if Shrek opened this weekend, it would probably have a legitimate shot at beating out the much-hyped Pearl Harbor.

This is why I think Tomb Raider, provided the movie isn't too cornball or stupid, will absolutely clean house on June 15th. It's going to have a huge draw from both young teens and older teens/young adults, not to mention a huge Pepsi/Playstation 2 ad campaign that has already begun and strong female crossover. It's going to get the same people who lined up on opening weekend for The Mummy Returns; maybe not so many young kids, but probably more older "geeks", so that sort of evens out.

[foxdvd]

well as I said, and was ignored, it is a 3 hour long movie, and THAT is the reason it did not make more then it did. In fact it will almost double the old record of that length I think....

Example...in my local theater, they have two screens of Shrek, and two of Pearl Harbor. In one day they have 11 showings of Pearl Harbor, and over 20 showings of Shrek. At least on Friday they sold out every showing of Pearl Harbor, and was about 50 percent full with Shrek (what the guy behind the counter said)..but still Pearl Harbor made them more money...because it sold out.

My showing I went to was well over half teenagers....The only reason it did not do the money everyone thought...it was to long to get enough showings in.

[Darth23]

That could be part of the reason, but increasing from 18 million on Friday to 20 million on Saturday isn't a very good performance. I don't think PH will pass 75 million for the 4 day period.

It could completely fall apart if the coming weeks as well.

[Force Master Hunter]

I can hear the spin doctors already.....

The fact is, PH got belted by the critics (and our favbourite critc also hosed it down) and it didnt do anwhere the buisness that it was expected BY the studio to do. Now the studio says it wasn't possible, too long.... bah bah bah.

Next week will be the clincher. If it falls badly, the length will be no excuse.I agree that the small increase to Saturday is interesting.

Remember TPM was on even less screens and pulled far bigger numbers. Saying the running length is the reason for a lower than expected B.O. is an excuse that to me doesnt wash.

[Jedieb]

The 3 hour running time certainly DIDN'T help it. I don't think you can make a comparison to Titanic's running time because Titanic never drew huge numbers in short periods of time. Did it ever even break $50M in one weekend? There's only so much money a 3 hour movie can make in a short amount of time. I do think the critic bashing may have had a small impact but I think the long running time was the big factor. This movie is still going to have a solid opening weekend. If it does fall apart in the next few weekends then you'll have proof it was an over hyped flash in the pan.

[swooshdark]

Running time is one reason, but I just don't think TEENAGERS want to sit down and watch this kind of movie in the summer with their friends.

Stop with the Titanic angle because it's *not* Titanic.
Titanic was its own thing, a diamond in the rought basically; that kind of thing can't be repeated like a formula.

Pearl Harbor is basically a longer, more boring version of Armageddon set in a time period and characters most teenagers quite honestly couldn't give a rats ass about.

I don't think Titanic would've done quite as well in the summer either.

The summer is ruled by popcorn movies and comedies. Expecting something like Pearl Harbor to beat out pure made-for-summer styled films like The Mummy Returns or
The Lost World just wasn't going to happen.

I think Pearl Harbor will take a huge hit in its second and especailly its third-week.

[Jedieb]

People have been mentioning Titanic so much because it's an OBVIOUS comparison. And the makers of PH have made a conscious effort to try to duplicate many of those elements. So much so that the inevitable comparisons to the boat flick keep popping up. As for teenages being turned off by the time period or subject matter, I just don't know. PH hasn't exactly been hyped as a 3 hour history lesson you know. The shot of the bomb falling towards a battleship is aimed as much at teenagers as WWII buffs. This movie is still going to open bigger than TMR and it will more than likely outgross TMR. The movie doesn't have to break records to be successful. It will probably cross the $200M mark and that's enough for it to be consdered successful. If it drops like a stone I don't think you can blame the time period or subject matter. The blame will fall on Bay's direction and a crappy product, not WWII subject matter.

[swooshdark]

There's a story over at Showbizdata that states Universal *still* hasn't earned a dime off The Grinch, last year's top-grossing movie at $267 million. After marketing and promotion costs larger than the Grinch, I'm not so sure Pearl Harbor is assured of "blockbuster" status either.

I don't think Pearl Harbor, after the inital hype wears off (which is happening rather quickly) is going to have the legs to muster strong 2nd or 3rd weekends.

I think if Shrek opened this weekend it would have a seriously legitimate shot at beating Pearl Harbor.

I think The Lord of the Rings (even though the bulk of its gross will come in 2002), Tomb Raider, and A.I. will be the biggest money makers this year, with The Mummy Returns, Hannibal, and Pearl Harbor somewhere in behind.

[Force Master Hunter]

* Writes down he must see Shrek*

I dunno about Tomb Raider. I see it opening big and sinking fast. Lord of the Rings could be the movie if it goes off and I see it has the best chance now. What other big movies open this year, or are we consigned to crap until then?

AI..... Hmmm. What's that one?

[foxdvd]

TPM may have been on less screens by about 500..it still had more showings a day.


I am not sure how this will effect next week,...but

audiences polled by CinemaScore....gave it an A-...but most important...those under 21..the teens that everyone seems to think will not want to see this movie gave it an A+...

I think tuesday will be a good way to see what it will end up doing.

[CMJ]

Part of the reason GRINCH hasn't really earned Universal money 'yet'(it will with the video believe me) is Carey and Ron Howard had percentages of the gross written into to their contracts. Whenever a big star does that it's hard to make any money. I don't think Bay or Affleck have lucrative back end deals.

[Jedi Master Carr]

We will have to see in how the word of mouth is. Realize there is crap opening next weekend. Evolution looks terrible then there is that dumb Martin Lawerence movie that looks equally dumb. And don't get me started on Moulin Rouge, Musicials are dead why did they have to make another one. I don't think Pearl Harbor did that bad considering its running time it will probably make between 75-80 million this weekend which is great for a 3 hour movie. At first I thought it would make more and I did not consider showings I though Disney was going to release it on more theaters but they decided like Lucas to go for quality over quanity which is not a bad idea. If I had to guess right now I think PH will make 40-50 million next weekend.

[zoar]

I don’t know why some people think teens will not see PH. When I went, the movie was sold out and there were a large number of teens in the audience. I mean the guys are going for the battle scenes. Here is a question, do you think if James Cameron had written and directed PH that it would have been a better story? I read in Newsweek that PH will have to do 450 million worldwide for Disney to break even. Speaking of money there is already a merchandising link to PH. I saw a commercial on TV advertising GI Joe Dolls complete with authentic scale replicas of Pearl Harbor uniforms. At least that is what the Add claimed.

[CMJ]

1. PEARL HARBOR - 75.08M
2. SHREK - 54.16M
3. MUMMY RETURNS - 19.06M
4. A KNIGHTS TALE - 9.30M
5. ANGEL EYES - 6.26M
6. BRIDGET JONES'S DIARY - 4.00M
7. ALONG CAME A SPIDER - 2.20M
8. MEMENTO - 1.85M
9. BLOW - 1.30M
10. DRIVEN - 1.19M

[Force Master Hunter]

Holy *&^#.... look at Shrek!

And Pearl Harbour is waaaayyyyy under every estimate. Did really good, but nowhere as good as hyped.

[JonathanLB]

haha, ok whatever. The teenagers DID line up for Pearl Harbor, me being one of them.

Almost every one of my friends saw it this weekend and we're teenagers, so your point seems incredibly shallow.

[Jedieb]

Studios love to say they don't make money on movies that make $200M plus. For years Warner Brothers said it actually lost money on Batman and some of the producers had to sue the studio to get their money. Stars like Nicholson and Carey may get their money up front, but the studios have tons of ways of getting their money. The accuarcy of Hollywood accounting is a joke. I'm not talking about BO figures, I'm talking about where the money goes once it comes in to the studios.

I'm very impressed by Shrek's performance. I really enjoyed the film. It does seem like the kind of movie that both kids, parents, and teens can enjoy. It may even be strong enough to pull in Lion King numbers. It will be an interesting film to keep track of this summer.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Pearl Harbor did great it was the box office gurus who were wrong (I guess I have to include myself) There was no way a 3 hour movie could make 90-100 million, unless they put it on 4,000 screens which they didn't. And many teens went especially girls who loved it. This could mean that the film has good staying power. I am sure it will make 200 probably even get past 250, it will be hard for it to get past that because of the competition coming in the next few weeks.

[swooshdark]

On Shrek. I predicted it would cause some serious competetion for Pearl Harbor and I was right. I'm betting that in 12-22 year old demographic Shrek was probably pretty close to dead even or possibly higher than Pearl Harbor.

I don't think Shrek will have the legs to do Lion King-esque numbers, however. Probably about $200 million.

[Darth23]

I think that the theaters could add a few extra showings for PH it they thought it was worth it.

[Force Master Hunter]

There was 6000 prints of PH done, so there was plenty of opporunity for it to make the big numbers, despite it's length.

I still say Shrek was the performer. To go as well as it did is amazing

[Darth23]

I've been talking up Shrek all year - I guess I should go see it. I prolly would have this weekend of the pouter hadn't seriously died. It took me a day just to get Windows up and running. Unfortuinately I was installing windows on drive that already had win files on them.

(damn registry).

[foxdvd]

6000 Prints....

If I remb correctly...TPM in the end had 5,500 prints...not sure if that is correct, but I know it was over 5000 for sure..lets do some math.


in a 12 hour day at a theater, each print of Pearl Harbor will get 4 showings. I know some theaters have more, and some less..but to keep it simple..lets say 4.

TPM would play on one print would get almost 6 (5.8) showings a day.


PEARL HARBOR...4X6000= (24,000) showings a day..

TPM..5.8x5,500= (31,900) showings a day...


I am not sure how many people can fit in each theater..but I know the two theaters in my town..one holds 125 per screen..the other 145..and in Tulsa it is closer to 200. I know some places more, but a lot of places less.


Both Pearl Harbor and TPM made about as much as they could have made on that Saturday..both getting close to sold out crowds. Even with less prints..TPM played at least 7,900 times more a day..and I think we all remb that TPM played around the clock in a LOT of places..even my small town, so in truth there could be an even BIGGER diff...

[Can Of WTF]

TPM played on 300+ less theatres. Lets go dig out a per theatre average on both on their first weekend.

[foxdvd]

go here to see that it played on 5,500 screens..

www.boxofficeguru.com/052499.htm (http://www.boxofficeguru.com/052499.htm)

[foxdvd]

and now that we know Pearl Harbor played on only 500-600 more screens then TPM..around the clock it is easy to see that TPM played MANY more times then Pearl Harbor. Much more then would reflect in higher ticket prices.

[Darth23]

But if Pearl Harbor was more appealing, it would play around the clock - or close to it.

[foxdvd]

that is not what I am saying..even if Pearl Harbor played around the clock...it STILL would play thousands of times less then TPM. TPM was something no other movie ever was. Pearl Harbor played the same time frame as another big movie this year, The Mummy Returns, but it played MANY times less because of the length. What part of this do you not understand? The Mummy made more money, but it also prob played near 10,000 more times a day then Pearl Harbor...and yet Pearl Harbor almost made as much money as it did in the same 3 day period. To me that is more impressive then what Mummy Returns did...BY FAR

[Darth23]

I don't think YOU understand what I was saying. :p

I understand that PH is longer and therefore gets less showings. What I'm saying is that if it was as big of an EVENT as the hype made out then the theaters would have added extra showings - opened early or stayed open late - or maybe even given it more screens, to accomodate the demand.

It's all academic anyway. the real key is it's staying power over the next few weeks.

[CMJ]

1. PEARL HARBOR - 75.18M
2. SHREK - 55.2M
3. MUMMY RETURNS - 19.04M
4. A KNIGHTS TALE - 9.11M
5. ANGEL EYES - 6.21M
6. BRIDGET JONES'S DIARY - 4.19M
7. ALONG CAME A SPIDER - 2.11M
8. MEMENTO - 1.97M
9. SPY KIDS - 1.30M
10. BLOW - 1.24M

[Darth23]

So who won?

:D

My C drive went bye bye on Saturday so I have to redo all the preliminary work I did Friday, then calculate everyone's totals.

:-|

[foxdvd]

6000 is the most any movie is going to get in theaters when there is at least 1 or 2 other movies still making money. Pearl Harbor played on as many screens as it was going to, and sold out just about as much as it could. 20 million is about the most it could have made in one day...

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, the box office analysts are IDIOTS. So is anyone who here who thinks $75 million isn't freaking AWESOME for 4 days, especially for a THREE HOUR movie!

Come on, how stupid do they come? $75 million people. Three hours. Titanic only made $28 million in its first three days, and not much more in its first four.

If you wanted to say the movie is 3/2 longer than most films, that is true, so 3/2 times $75 million is $112.5 million. I'm not saying it would have made that much had it been 2 hours long, but it could have made $100 million maybe.

Oh, and as for the one about Shrek beating PH in the 12-22 group, haha, yeah right. What world do you live in? Seriously, I cannot convince my friends to see that movie because they WILL NOT SEE A KIDDIE FILM! They think that's what it is. I, however, want to go see Shrek. I think it looks good and I like Dreamworks, and I like digital animation.

Still, most teenagers hate "that kiddie crap," which is what any high school student thinks of Shrek (before seeing it, that is, then who knows, they probably would like it).

In the 12-22 group, I am positive there was the GREATEST difference between Pearl Harbor and Shrek. Under 12, Shrek kicks PH's butt! Over 22, Pearl Harbor probably wins, but not by a huge margin. Overall, the over 55 crowd sees few movies per year, and this may be the one, but it may not be on opening weekend either (they tend to wait longer, like my dad). The parents taking their kids to Shrek pretty much balances out any adults going to PH because of its historical significance, but give PH the edge slightly.

Teenagers were definitely cramming showings of Pearl Harbor. We are THE biggest demographic and if you don't market your movie to us, you're screwed. Try making $200 million without the teenager demographic. That's pretty tough. The only way to do that is through kiddie films like Lion King, but then you have tons of little kids who get their parents to go too.

Adult films, R movies, typically do not make $200 million even at their best. The few that do appeal to teenagers too, not just adults.

Fox's 5,500 screens is right, but he already confirmed that.

There is no reason to downplay PH's success. Anyway, if you go on the "Teen Forum" for The Oregonian, tons of people have seen it and most seemed to like it. I talked to people about the film today at school and everyone enjoyed it. A few people said there were things they didn't like, or it was too long, but everyone would give it a solid 3 stars or greater and would recommend it. I'd give it 3.5 to 4 and I'd definitely recommend it as the must-see film this summer (hopefully not the best, though, I'd like to see even better movies...).

[CMJ]

Maybe most high schoolers hate "kiddie crap" Jon...but most of my COLLEGE friends have either seen or want to see SHREK. I believe they fall into that 12-22 demographic too(just the higher end of it). I do think teens and young 20 somethings played a big part of PH's success over the weenkend....BUT the showing I went to yesterday had a majority of elderly people. The polling statistics on the film said something like only 19% of the audience were in their teens. I think that was on Boxofficeguru.com if you're interested.

[Remy LeBeau]

June 1-3, 2001
Studio Estimates


Pearl Harbor-------------$30 mil/$119 mil
Shrek-------------------$28 mil/$148.6 mil
The Animal------------------$19.5 mil/$19.5 mil
Moulin Rouge--------------------$14 mil/$14.8 mil
What's the Worst That Could...?------$13 mil/$13 mil
The Mummy Returns----------------$7.5 mil/$181 mil
A Knight's Tale---------------------$3.4 mil/$49.5 mil

[Force Master Hunter]

Anyone willing to bet when Shrek ovetakes Pearl Harbour?

[Darth23]

Monday.

I still think it might pull a surprise upset for the weekend - but that fairly unlikely.