How come Atlantis was ineffective vs. Shrek?

[JonathanLB]

How come the percentage decline for Shrek was actually the BEST of its entire run versus its steepest competition for its core audience with Atlantis? That doesn't make any sense.

That reminds me of when Austin Powers 2 came head-to-head with TPM and everyone said that would really hurt TPM, but in reality it made no difference at all apparently. In fact, TPM held better that weekend than it did the prior one...

Still, Shrek only fell 20% despite Atlantis. It's like people intentionally went to see Shrek just to spite Atlantis, hehe.

Here are two questions for everyone here:

1) How much will Shrek finish with in North America?

2) Will Shrek ultimately win the Oscar in the new category, Best Animated Film? It's primary competition is probably Monsters, Inc. by Pixar, but I guess Final Fantasy will be considered too, so both are probably pretty tough competition...

Still, I say DreamWorks wins the Oscar, further disgracing Disney.

[ReaperFett]

If Shrek beat Final Fantsy, it would be a travesty. FF looks almost real, I know a few who didnt believe the girl in the trailer was real until they looked properly. Shrek looks good, but thats because it looks simple, but with a great depth. Final Fantasy looks almost real

[CMJ]

Well Reaper...the Best Animatred oscar isn't about the best animation....but the best animated FILM. I can't imagine SHREK being beat in that category.

[ReaperFett]

thats a sucky Oscar. If you have that, why not start having genres? Or how about one called Best film starring Steve Buscemi? Or best film with a Colt 1911? Jeez

[DaBoSsNaStY]

How much will Shrek finish with in North America? 252million...

Will Shrek ultimately win the Oscar in the new category, Best Animated Film? I don't know. I would liike to see FF, and M:Inc before I answer that.

_____________________
something only a ReaperFett can say: thats a sucky Oscar. If you have that, why not start having genres? Or how about one called Best film starring Steve Buscemi? Or best film with a Colt 1911? Jeez
____________________________
LOL!!!!

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still don't think it will make it to 250 I'd say it falls about 10 million short because the box office is becoming more crowded the next three weeks. I know there is only film opening wide next weekend and three the weekend after that and then you have the big guns of July JP3 and Planet of the Apes. I'd still say AI will be the #1 film of the year now realizing that I was wrong about its rating, it is PG-13. Spielberg's has captured several box office summer titles:Raiders, JP, ET just to name a few and I think this one will be huge. I think it will open around 50 million and end up making close to 300 it might even win a couple of oscars when its all through.

[JonathanLB]

Yup, I think I agree with Jedi Master Carr on this one. $240 million is his prediction, then? That's not a bad one. Hmm...Seems like it'll be right around there.

It would be a sucky category if it was JUST best animation in a film, now that would be a sucky category.

I LOVE the Final Fantasy game series, and actually I love Pixar, every movie they've made, so really if it comes down to those three films, there can be no bad decision.

Shrek was pretty darn awesome, though, I would be surprised if either film is *quite* that good, but I hope to be amazed!

[Force Master Hunter]

If there's something better than Shrek, I'll be damn amazed. Seen it twice and nearly died laughing both times. The singing to the bird scence does me in every time.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think AI will be and probably Lord of the Rings later this year will be better. I think they both will pass Shrek with Lord of the Rings being the highest grossing film of the year.

[foxdvd]

is LOTR coming out late Nov? It is possible it will not do all its money in 2001, and not count toward the biggest of this year.....

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its coming out in the Winter season but as far as counting for 2001 or 2002 you got me. I would say 2001 only because people were counting Castaway, The Grinch, Traffic, and Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon's 2001 receits for 2000. Maybe CMJ can answer this question he is has handled the 100 million dollar list here the past two years he probably would know better than me.

[CMJ]

If a film is released late 2001 and makes most of it's money in 2002...then it still counts as 2001. Thats why films like CASTAWAY or TITANIC counted on the previous year's list even though they made the lions share of their coin on the following year.

[Darth23]

Yep. yep.

Shakespeare in love made most of it's 100 millon dollars in 1999, even though it came out in December 1998. That amount didn't count towards 1999's record year.


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So I finally saw Shrek this weekend. It was pretty good, I liked it. Unfortunately there was a famiy in front of me with a few kids that were basically running around, and a baby that was fussing for like 20 minutes, so it was really distracting. I didn't think it was a negative towards Disney as I thought it might be.

As far as it's perfromance goes, maybe it woudl have no drop at all if Atlantis was on the scene. I think it shows that really well liked movies can hold up strong even with some decent competition.

[JonathanLB]

I hope AI beats Shrek (just because I wish Spielberg success and if it does, it must be pretty well-liked), but I would not bet on it. I think AI will probably make $180 million or so, possibly $210 million at the best. I hope I'm wrong, though. Looks very good and I cannot wait to see it!

This summer is just a monster for movies!

I will make a prediction that I would bet ANY amount of money on: Rush Hour 2 will set a new record with the all-time highest August opening. It doesn't have to do that well to top the record, but it will make $35 or $40 million in its first weekend (beginning August 3). August usually does not have such a high profile film.

There are so many movies left this summer that I can't wait to see. It's hardly even begun, but we've had back-to-back $40+ million openers in just the last two weeks.

The Lord of the Rings films will not do as well as many people think. I would be surprised if any one of the makes more than $200 million. They'll make $150 to $180 million each.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Lord of the Rings will do better than that. I think it will do between 250 and 300 easily. I think New Line will really push it come the fall and it will be every where and I know a lot of people who already want to see it I think it will be huge.

[Darth23]

I don't know how anyone can predict a 300 million dollar take for a movie. I know that some movies make it, but it's SO hard to judge.

[Jedi Master Carr]

There are some movies that you can predict. TPM was easily and so will be EP 2. I think Lord of the Rings is similar to that it just seems like a sure hit and 300 is well within its grasp considering the fan base and the advertizing that will surely be coming in a few months. The only way it does not hit 300 is if it sucks which from what I have heard about it does not seem to be the case.

[Darth23]

Star Wars is a known phenomenon. LOTR isn't. I think it's quite possible for it to hit the 300 million plus range, but it has some obstacles. Fantasy movies have a hard time, and this one will have to appeal to more than just the core sci-fi / fantasy / genre audiences. I thought that X-men should have made over 200 million, but I think it's comic book origins hurt it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't complete disagree with you but realize this is just my opinion I' don't think I said it will defently made that its I just I think that what it will make. I could be wrong, I don't we will have to wait to see how if the media makes the movie a must see and also how the public reacts to it. Regardless,k I think I can say that 200 is a safe bet for and I would be shocked if it made less than that. Yet again I said something similar three months ago about Pearl Harbor and it looks like it will fall 10 or 15 million short of that guarentee.

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, generally you cannot predict a $300 million film. Nobody thought Lion King would make that much, and nobody knew that ID4, even, could hit the mark. I think when everyone saw the alien ship blowing up the white house, it could not have been much more clear that film was going to be a massive hit. I didn't get that same "sure-hit" idea when I saw trailers for Wild Wild West or for Godzilla, although the latter movie I did think would do far better ($200 million or so anyway). ID4 was almost a guaranteed hit, but actually the film displayed remarkable staying power in making it past $300 million. That's hard. Even though I didn't think the movie was great, it was a classic summer action film and that's why it succeeded.

LOTR must capitalize on its opening frame extremely well and then somehow display staying power far better than even The Phantom Menace to reach $300 million. It doesn't have the luxury of a summer opening that would allow it many great weekdays. Instead, it will have to display fall-offs of less than 15% each weekend basically. It will do well on its opening, but I doubt it'll make $50 million, so assuming it makes $40 million, it would have to make between 7 and 8 times its opening weekend gross. That's better than TPM, which would mean it would have some of the best staying power in history (TPM already beat nearly every other comparable blockbuster; Titanic is not in the same opening league and you can hardly compare staying power between a $28 mil. opener and a $64...).

Where is this MASSIVE built-in LOTR fan base? It doesn't exist. That's the simple truth. Do many people love the books? Of course they do. I'm reading The Hobbit right now and Tolkien is the master, but there isn't a huge fanbase for LOTR. It's actually very small in terms of the people who really are die-hard about it, unlike Star Wars with more than 1/2 million dedicated fans (using the subscription numbers to the SW Insider, which not every die-hard fan even subscribes to).

About all you can say is that LOTR is probably guaranteed $100 million, and nearly guaranteed $150 million in my opinion. Beyond that, it'll have to really work hard.

If it clears $200 million, it will be considered EXTREMELY successful! The Matrix spawned a trilogy with well less than $200 million. Indy, the second highest grossing trilogy behind Star Wars, made somewhere in the $600 million range (with JP3 soon to push the JP trilogy into second place sadly).

Funny thing is, before the prequel trilogy is, well, a trilogy, it will already probably have become the second highest grossing, or at least third (depending on JP3's success).

So who is taking bets on whether or not JP3 is the final JP movie? Do we know yet? I think it'll be like so: JP made $323 million or something, whatever it was, and Lost World was $220 million or so, then JP3 will probably be about $150 million. That is definitely diminishing returns, so doubtful we'll see a fourth I think...maybe much later.

Carr, I don't know why you'd say you would be "shocked" if LOTR, the first film, made less than $200 million. That is a huge sum of money. Mummy Returns was a massively marketed film with a huge opening and it is just barely going to hit $200 million. The Matrix is one of the most popular sci-fi films in the last decade probably but didn't make it to $200 million (wait until the next two films, though, hehe...). If the studio made $200 million on each LOTR film, they'd have $600 million plus probably another $800 million or more internationally, plus merchandising (which could be very significant), plus TV sales, plus video sales, plus DVD sales, plus rentals, and pretty soon we're talking about several billion dollars, maybe a billion in pure profit. A $150 million film, for instance, is nothing to scoff at...

[Force Master Hunter]

I think Jonathon's got it read right. For LOTR to make huge money, it's going to have to be somethign extraordinary and also cross over to new markets out side of its fan base. I find it hard to belive the fan base alone will carry it by $200 million, let alone $300 million. 300 mill is a huge number, how many movies have gotten that far, let alone crossed that line? I would be extremely surprised it gets that far.

Pearl Harbour COULD have gotten that far if it was a better movie. I dont think anything else this summer has the chance. The biggest movie this will top out in the $250 million range unless something that strikes a chord with movie goers like Sixth Sense comes out.

Anything that gets beyond $250 million needs something more than just a blockbuster. Maybe LOTR will have it. Maybe.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'd said I would be shocked personally. I was shocked that Pearl Harbor did not make it to 200 million and was again shocked that Fast and Furious did as well as it did. I am sure LOTR could disapoint but I just have this feeling about it since I saw the second trailer. It just looks awsome and I think it will surprise everybody. I have no facts to back it up, sure I could bring up the fact the LOTR trailer broke internet records, I could also argue that there is at least a vocal fan base look at the sites on the net. I bet they rank up there quite high in hits. And also there is precident for a film like this The Grinch. That was a fanasty film though it was christmas related it still did better than many people though and became the # 1 movie of the year. So I think LOTR can do it, will it I think it will but that is just me. It might not I could be wrong it wouldn't be the first time or the last I guess we have a months to wonder about it.

[Jedieb]

I think LOTR has a solid fan base that will guarantee it a solid $25-$50 winter opening. Especially when you consider how much better movies have been opening in non-summer months lately. The question is whether LOTR will break out of its fan base and attract other demographics. $300M plus blockbusters are films that do well across the board. They have to to generate those kinds of numbers. Take the Lion King for example. It broke out of the traditional family demographic and drew in teenagers and even DINKs (Dual Income No Kids). Gump brought all kinds of moviegoers into theaters. Everyone from Grandpa to young single female moviegoers.

My wife was eager to see both The Lion King and Gump. Those movies were able to draw her in. Will LOTR do the same? Will women like my wife want to spend their movie date on Tolkien? That's one of the groups LOTR has to do well with to hit and surpass $300M. If it can generate a strong buzz and word of mouth then it has a chance. Word of mouth is the key for a movie like LOTR. A fantasy movie isn't the kind of movie women and baby boomers line up to see. But if there's a buzz and a strong word of mouth then they'll go see it and keep seeing weeks after it's opened.

My LOTR prediction? I'm going to be reading the Hobbit soon and then LOTR after that. I'll be able to make a better prediction after that. But with just the trailer viewing I'd have to go with $150-$200. I just can't make a bigger prediction without having read the novels so I can get a better feel for the story.

[ReaperFett]

Im not in the LOTR fanbase. I've never read them. I am completely unbothered by these films. Fantasy films are generally awful. That to me is what many think. A western could make a lot, as they are popular. Fantasy isnt.

I still may see it, but thats because the director gave me Braindead(Dead Alive), so I do think I should help his wages

[Jedi Master Carr]

Fantasy films haven't been all bad. Princess Bride, The Neverending Story, and Exaclabur all come to mind and there are others. In fact Star Wars has a lot of fantasy elements in its story and I would say that it is more of a fantasy than science fiction. I disagree with you about westerns being popular. The Western genre like the musical is dead. The last successful western was Unforgiven and than was mostly driven by its critical success. I guess there was Tombstone but there has been nothing else since. And there is nothing left on TV the last attempted westren there was Brisco County JR and even though it was a good show it failed to attract viewers showing how unpopular the western is now.

[ReaperFett]

Give Clint a Western. Add in Buscemi, De Niro and Del Torro. Tell me THAT wouldnt kick start the genre!:)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think Eastwood wants to do them anymore I thought I heard him say after Unforgiven that he was finished with them. But don't get me wrong the genre is not permenantly dead unlike the Musical, it just not popular right now. It is interesting that the genre's popularity wanned so quickly since some of the best westerns occured in the 80's Silverado, Lonesome Dove and into the early 90's with Unforgiven and Tombstone. Its hard to say why it suddenly vanished in the last 10 years maybe its because they have become too realistic and darker from the past John Wayne films where the hero was perfect.

[JonathanLB]

Westerns can be great, but musicals suck hard. Really hard. I wouldn't watch a musical if you paid me.

Tombstone is a great movie, though!

I don't think it's true that fantasy films are terrible. In fact, I think there are truly only two great categories of film: fantasy and sci-fi. Everything else is tired and has already been done before. Comedy, well, comedy in a sci-fi context has potential, general comedy has already been done so many times that there are no new jokes. Romance is utterly and completely boring; it has already happened every way you can imagine and been done so many times it is sickening.

The only potential for new stories exists in fantasy and sci-fi, other genres have exhausted their potential again and again. That is not to say there aren't new funny movies all of the time, but if we're talking about serious films that actually boast a fairly new, innovative plot, sci-fi holds all the playing cards. Drama, eh, been there, done that. It's all more or less been done before. Unless you make it around a new disease or something, it's been done. Prison movies? Got lots of good ones. Even westerns. Everything has essentially been done before and done again, so where is there new potential for a western film?

There are ALWAYS new sci-fi ideas. Always. There are new aliens you can make, new space ships, new conflicts, new galaxies, the possibilities are as endless as the universe itself.

I've seen enough horror movies really and none of them have scared me anyway, so that is another defunct genre in my opinion. Sci-fi horror has good potential, though, I still love that idea. Something like JP3 looks like sci-fi horror, and Event Horizon had good potential, but alas, it was probably one of the top three worst movies I've ever seen.

I'm reading The Hobbit now, too, Jedieb :)

Did you catch the USA Today article Thursday, today? Go to the Website and read it (I assume they have it) if you have not. Basically, it's just discussing how sales of LOTR books are skyrocketing. I bought mine at the airport on the way to Los Angeles or something, I think, maybe it was on the way back. Anyway, I'm only about 55 pages through The Hobbit, but I think Tolkien is the master. He truly is such a wonderful fantasy writer.

I would love to see the LOTR movies gross $250 million each, but that's it. I'm not going to root for them to become $400 million hits, hehe, that would come too close to Star Wars and I don't like that :)

Anyway, LOTR has nothing on Star Wars, and that will be proven through the box office grosses of the three coming films. I still cannot wait to see them. I truly expect the first to be one of the best movies of the year and I cannot wait to see it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree with you there Jonathan I don't think it will do more than about 300 each myself. I think 400 out if its territory. There have been a few fans screaming that it will top Titanic but that is a laugh. LOTR will probably be great but even with the best word of mouth the best it could do is 300 because there will be people who won't see at all plus its in the winter season which will hurt it slightly. Also I need to reread the books before the movie comes out it has been a while since I read them I haven't picked one up in at least 10 years so I better hurry and reread them before the first film comes out.

[Jedieb]

Westerns... god how I love westerns! I use to love sitting next to my father on weekends and watching great old westerns. The western is a classic, original American form of art. Even when Leone and Eastwood were making them in Europe they were still American classsics. But I would say that the western has been dead for more than just 10 years. I'd say it's closer to 20-25 years. (Some people say Mel Brooks killed it with Blazing Saddles but I say he just hammered a few more nails into its casket.) Despite a few hits and misses in the 80's the western hasn't been a major force in Hollywood since the late 60's and early 70's. Westerns use to be a staple of Hollywood filmmaking. You could count on a slew of westerns year after year. Hollywood use to crank them out the way they do action films today.

I believe it's the modern action film that's replaced the western. We use to watch our heroes trade bullets while everybody wore cowboy hats and rode horses. Now John McClain and Martin Riggs drive pickups and motorcycles and destroy buildings with C-4. They're our modern cowboys.

I enjoy the occasional new western. But it seems more and more difficult to pull off. And the good ones are far and few between. I think Eastwood said goodbye to the Western with Unforgiven. The same way he said goodbye to the "unknown stranger" with Pale Rider. He really doesn't have any reason to visit that genre again and I don't think he will.

As for romances and comedies, they're not going anywhere. People will always need movies about saps falling in love. There are thousands of ways to tell boy meets girl stories and we're sure to suffer/enjoy them for years to come. Musicals? Yes they're pretty much dead. But damn it if Grease still isn't a pretty good movie. And Singin' In the Rain has got some great scenes in it. But when you can see all the music you need on MTV, VH1, or MUCH Music do you even need to go to the movie theater for your music fix?

I'd say that most sci-fi stories place new spins on classic themes and stories. The settings are original, but the essense of the stories have been done over and over. Gee, a virus kills off an invading alien force in ID4. Didn't I read that in War of the Worlds decades ago? A virus threatens to wipe out human life on earth? The Andromeda Strain covered that years ago. Science will give us new topics to explore (cloning, extraterestials, etc...) but they'll still be placed in the familiar context of stories we've already seen.

And why is it half the horror movies I see keep ripping off Poe? Oooooo, Sam Neil doesn't have eyes, how original. :p