Box Office Contest weekend of June 29

[Darth23]

I'm back to running the contest again. Doesn't look like this weekend will be any easier for Box Office forecasters. FOUR new movies open to challenge the surprisingly strong showing of Fast and Furious, as well as Dr. Doolittle and Tomb Raider.

George Lucas' best friend is back with a little movie about an android boy who can see dead peopl- er, I mean about an android boy 'who can love'. AI looks to open big, and could be THE big hit of the summer (Pearl who?). John Singleton's Baby Boy(z in da Hood), Kirstin Dunst's Crazy/Beautiful and Pootie Tang - the Chris Rock blaxploitation parody (?) are also opening this week.

I think the only safe bet is AI at number 1 - this could be the week for someone to make a move on the rest, with some bold predictions. Anyway it looks like there could be 7 or 8 different movies that end up in the top 5.


Pick the Top 5 and their weekend grosses, deadline 3:00 am EDT Friday night / Sat morning.


Remember: anyone who plays at least for weekend rounds in entered into the random drawing at the end of the contest

Good luck and may God have mercy us all. :)

[RHJediKnight]

1. A.I.: Artificial Intelligence - $52.34 million
2. The Fast and the Furious - $24.47 million
3. Dr. Dolittle 2 - $20.89 million
4. Tomb Raider - $13.63 million
5. Atlantis: The Lost Empire - $9.72 million

[Darth23]

Lee's Movie Info (http://leesmovieinfo.com) :

Esitmated screen counts (Note these numbers COULD BE WRONG)

A.I. - 3242
crazy/beautiful - 1600
Baby Boy - 1533
Pootie Tang - 712


Lee Predicts:

1 A.I. $52.0
2 Fast and the Furious $20.8 (-48%)
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $17.0 (-32%)
4 Baby Boy $10.7
5 Tomb Raider $10.1 (-50%)
6 Atlantis $8.2 (-35%)
7 Shrek $8.1 (-22%)

This week your milage will almost definitely vary.

Box Office Guru (http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm) Predicts:

A.I. - $50M.
Fast and the Furious - $24M
Dr. Dolittle 2 - $16M
Baby Boy - $13M
Tomb Raider - $10M
Atlantis - ??
Shrek - ??
Crazy/Beautiful - $7M.
Pootie Tang - $3M.

[buff jedi 2]

Gosh this is going to be tough :(


AI 58 mil

baby boy 26 mil

ddl 19 mil

faf 16 mil

tomd r 11.9 mil


buffjedi/wookieboy

[Jedieb]

1 A.I. $55.5
2 Fast and the Furious $24.5
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $15.5
4 Baby Boy $11.5
5 Tomb Raider $10.5
6 Shrek 8.2
7 Atlantis $8.1

[CMJ]

1. A.I. - 46.7M
2. FAST AND FURIOUS - 21.7M
3. DR. DOOLITTLE 2 - 17.4M
4. BABY BOY - 12.3M
5. TOMB RAIDER - 10.9M

[ReaperFett]

1 A.I. 60.96
2 Fast and the Furious $26.57
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $17.34
5 Tomb Raider $13.55
4 Baby Boy $12.0

[Darth23]

I might go out ot the theaters tonight just to see what the crowds look like, and what movies are selling out.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wouldn't that be cheating Darth :p
Well here is my predictions
AI 54.57
Fast and Furious 23.45
Dr Doolitle 2 18.24
Baby Boy 12.28
Tomb Raider 11.35

[Jedieb]

Baby Boy is going to make or break some predictions. If it falls on its face and barely cracks the top 5 most of us will get our top 5 wrong. Will it take the #4 spot or fall flat on its face???

[Force Master Hunter]

this is going to be hard


AI - $51.2 million
Fast and Furious - $25.3 million
Dr Dolittle - $16.9 million
Tomb Raider - $10.0 million
SHREK - $8.3 million


Yeah, I'm going ofr a long shot :D

[Darth23]

I'm going to take some chances too.

:D

AI - 43.16
Fast and Furious - 26.06
Baby Boy - 15.38
Dr. Dolittle - 14.52
Shrek (baybee) - 9.36

Now it's time to go see what movies are selling out at the mall :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

It debuted at #3 on wed with about 1.5 million so it might. It could do even better, heck Crazy beautiful might drive all the teenage girls out of and it might crack the top 5.

[Force Master Hunter]

It was at No. 6 on Thursday.

[DaBoSsNaStY]

well it looks like we may be wrong in how much AI is going to make this weekend ... and Darth23 going to get the big prize!!!!



www.showbizdata.com/conta...ilybox.cfm (http://www.showbizdata.com/contacts/dailybox.cfm)

[Darth23]

:)

Unless the numbers are wrong - I had a feeling that it might have be a strong opening.

[buff jedi 2]

With all the commercials Ive been seeing of BABY BOY I figured it would do better :( I also was sure FAF would fall flat :( well atleast I could still win the drawing :)



buffjedi/wookieboy

[DaBoSsNaStY]

LOL!!
we can all hope buff jedi 2;)

[Darth23]

12 players this week.

This weeks picks:


Mu Satach
A.I. 52.78936254738362
The fast and the furious 28.3655302837
Baby boy 17.454839273
TombRaider 14.843735484938494
Dr. D2 10.7563029474

Darth23
AI - 43.16
Fast and Furious - 26.06
Baby Boy - 15.38
Dr. Dolittle - 14.52
Shrek (baybee) - 9.36

sirdizzy
1 AI - 55.61
2 Fast and the furious - 21.85
3 Dr Doolittle 2 15.42
4 Crazy Beautiful 13.17
5 Baby Boy 11.29

Yaddle's Little Helper
1 A.I. $49.2
2 Fast and the Furious $20.4
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $17.0
4 Baby Boy $10.9
5 Tomb Raider $10.2

DaBoSsNaStY
1 A.I. $54.4
2 Fast and the Furious $24.4
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $17.4
4 Baby Boy $10.3
5 Tomb Raider $10.4

Force Master Hunter
AI - $51.2 million
Fast and Furious - $25.3 million
Dr Dolittle - $16.9 million
Tomb Raider - $10.0 million
SHREK - $8.3 million

Jedi Master Carr
AI 54.57
Fast and Furious 23.45
Dr Doolitle 2 18.24
Baby Boy 12.28
Tomb Raider 11.35

ReaperFett
1 A.I. 60.96
2 Fast and the Furious $26.57
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $17.34
5 Tomb Raider $13.55
4 Baby Boy $12.0

CMJ
1. A.I. - 46.7M
2. FAST AND FURIOUS - 21.7M
3. DR. DOOLITTLE 2 - 17.4M
4. BABY BOY - 12.3M
5. TOMB RAIDER - 10.9M

Jedieb
1 A.I. $55.5
2 Fast and the Furious $24.5
3 Dr. Dolittle 2 $15.5
4 Baby Boy $11.5
5 Tomb Raider $10.5
6 Shrek 8.2
7 Atlantis $8.1

buff jedi 2
AI 58 mil
baby boy 26 mil
ddl 19 mil
faf 16 mil
tomd r 11.9 mil

RHJediKnight
1. A.I.: Artificial Intelligence - $52.34 million
2. The Fast and the Furious - $24.47 million
3. Dr. Dolittle 2 - $20.89 million
4. Tomb Raider - $13.63 million
5. Atlantis: The Lost Empire - $9.72 million

[CMJ]

30.14 estimated for A.I. over the weekend. We all way over estimated....

[Darth23]

I thought you were going to post the numbers for all five...


AI - 30.14 (new) - Owch.
F &F - 20.00 (-50%)
Dr. Doolitle 2 - 15.40 (-38%)
Tomb Raider - 9.80 (-50%)
Baby Boy - 8.6 (new)

Atlantis - 7.8 (-38%)
Shrek - 7.04 (-32%)
crazy/beautiful - 4.50 (new)

Planet of the Apes, anyone? Cats and Dogs maybe?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually it might make since this opening isn't really that bad considering the movie almost had no advertizement at all. I only saw 3 comericals the last two weeks and I now a lot of people new nothing about it. AI could still do very well depending on word of mouth which helps in a film like this, much like the Sixth Sense which opened in the mid 30's and dominated for the next three months this film could do the same. I expect low declines the next two weeks if this is the case.

[Darth23]

It will be interesting to see what the declines look like, but AI will have a tough challenge than Sixth Sense. That movie came out late in the summer, while AI will have to face Cats and Dogs, Scary Movie 2, Final Fanstay I, Jurrasic Park3, Rush Hour 2, American Pie 2, Planet of the Apes, Rollerball (which seems to be a minor factor right now), and several other movies.

I saw a lot of AI commercials this week, and I've seen many entertainment shows covering it.

[CMJ]

A.I. got only C+ ratings from regular movie goers. I'm starting to think it might not even gross 100M. It really is polarizing audiences...like all Kubrick's work. Spielberg succeeded in making a great film(for me) but he alienated alot of his audience.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I don't think Cats and Dogs or Final Fantasy will give it much of trouble they both look awful. Final Fantasy looks so boring that I think it will be the Titan A.E of this year. Cats and Dogs looks dumb and very unfunny I doubt it will make it into the top two this coming weekend. Sure Scary Movie 2 is there but it one week thing and will not do nearly as well as the first considering half the people that saw it hated it (including myself). JP3 is the next huge movie on the horizon and it will be huge I can predict that already probably 50 million easily Planet of the Apes could do better maybe. Still, I think this coming weekend will determine how well AI does for the rest of the summer. I know people think Kubrick's name is a curse when it comes to the Box office so I guess we will have to wait and see.

[Force Master Hunter]

AI = Ouch! I dont think it will do well now, as stated there is far too much coming out to give it a clear run. I think maybe if it came out late August, it might have stood a chance.

Anyone now willing to place bets Shrek will end up No.1 this summer? It's looking like Shrek could make 250 million, can anyonle see Planet of the Apes or J3 getting close? Apes MIGHT. I doubt J3 will.

[Jedi Master Carr]

JP3 might suprise people, I think it will make 150 for sure it could do better than JP2 if its better I'm not sure if it will get to 250 or not depends on how good it is. Planet of the Apes could do it too depending on how good the movie is. There isn't that much else besides Osmosis Jones, and Rush Hour 2 both will do well but I don't either will do 200.

[Darth23]

Most of AI's audience was man and women over 25. I don't think the younger people will flock to see it in large numbers if they didn't see it this weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is from a report on the AP


"Some people thought it might do more simply because it was Spielberg,'' said Paul Dergarabedian, president of Exhibitor Relations, which tracks the box office. ``But given the tone of the film, the fact that it's not a movie for little kids, that it's more a thinking person's movie, I think it did quite well.''

Also the AP calls it an intellegent movie which is a good word to use for it. I wish somebody would have said this before. I think this is the last time I listen to those bozos at Lees and Box office Guru they should realized that a film like this could never make that kind of money. The movie could still do well as I said I would recommend it to my friends (I know some who haven't seen it yet) so if it goods word of mouth I'm confident it will clear 100 easily and should do 150-200 which would be pretty good realizing the subject matter of the movie.

[CMJ]

1. A.I. - 29.35M
2. FAST AND FURIOUS - 20.05M
3. DR. DOOLITTLE 2 - 15.84M
4. TOMB RAIDER - 10.21M
5. BABY BOY - 8.61M

[Darth23]

I think this is the last time I listen to those bozos at Lees and Box office Guru they should realized that a film like this could never make that kind of money.

hee hee

I think this exactly the kind of movie that most of us would expect to make a lot more - sci-fi fans AND Box Office enthusiasts. Actually Brandon Gray at zap2it.com had a much more accurate guess this weekend. (DBN posted the link somewhere - I think on CCnet).

[Jedi Master Carr]

Really I think its the opposite most people don't want to see intellegent films they would rather see crap with no plot like Mummy Returns (I think it shows a lot about are youth) AI is not your typical summer film and if I had know that would have given it a much lower number.

[Jedieb]

Don't forget about crap with car chases and unrealistic slow motion fight scenes!

"Intelligent" films usually are slated for non summer releases for a variety of reasons. One of them being they can get easily pummeled by pop corn fare like TMReturns. Maybe the studio was banking on Spielberg's name to carry it to much bigger BO heights. Every summer usually has one or two "adult" movies thrown in there. It just seems that AI was marketed as something it wasn't. It's almost as if the studio was afraid to advertise it as a movie that might make its audience "think"! I'm looking forward to seeing it, but with a limited number of movies I can see during the summer I just don't know what I'll end up seeing this summer.