A Animated feature DID top a B.O. year

[Force Master Hunter]

Just in case this comes up when we discuss if Shrek CAN top the year (and summer), you should note it's been done already. Toy Story topped out 1995, with Batman Forever (which won the summer of 95) second.

Can Shrek do it as well and even more impressively, win the summer at the same time? I'm starting to think it's got a decent chance.

I see that three movies might beat it - and thereby most likely earning 250 million at least

1) Planet of the Apes - Dunno. It will have a fan base already and it could lure more new fans in.

2) Jurrassic Park 3 - Least likely. Sequel syndrome here

3) Lord of the Rings - IMO, the dark horse. Exactly what will it do? Who knows. I am waitng this movie as it promises to be a technological feast and if it's even half right compared to the book, well the plot will be decent, which has been sorely lacking lately.

Any others?

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think LOTR will do it, it will probably make 275 or there abouts and be the be the biggest film of 2001. I think JP3 will do well 200 maybe but will not be #1, Planet of the Apes I'm not even sure. Just wondering what else comes out this winter that might give us some indication.

[swooshdark]

Are we talking films released just in 2001? Then LOTR definitely, although it will do the bulk of its business in 2002, I imagine. Harry Potter is another potential one. Planet of the Apes as well, but I just don't think its anything *that* special (enough to top $100 million easily, however).

[Darth23]

I think the backlash / negative aspects should be looked at with these movies. Harry Potter will probably do really well with kids and their parents, but teens and 20 somethings could look at it and think "I'm not going ot see that kiddie movie."

JP as sequel syndrome is important, I think. Especially with the relativly poor performance of Lost World. I think a lot of people remember the hype of JP2 and were dissapointed - the movie made like 40% of it's total on opening weekend. I think some people will remember and not be as inclined to see it.

If Planet of the Apes doesn't appeal to a broad enough group of people, then I think it will do 150 - 175 million MAX, maybe around 200. I think it will play like a better performing Tomb Raider or a Mission Impossible 2. I'm sure there will be some idiots complaining that it's different from the original.

Lord of the Rings is really unknown at this point. If there's too much hype then there could be a backlash. If Jackson has done a good job translating the books onto film, then it could do really well.

[Jedieb]

But I loved the original!!! Heston was great and his character was a sign of the times. Early in the movie he seems like more of a burned out astronaut than a patriot on a mission for the good ol's USA. And the ending was simply brilliant. It was as big a surprise when it came out as Vader's revelation in ESB, people just didn't see it coming. That being said, I don't necessarily mind a "different" story. I think Burton is a talented enough director that he can give us an engaging story and vision. I wouldn't want a scene by scene remake anyway. But there are certain elements from the original that I want to see in the remake. The location of the story being foremost.

As for top film of the year, I think JP3 has too much going against it. Namely, JP2 backlash. Many are just going to consider it "another" one and stay away from it. It could very well be a HUGE improvement over JP2, but many moviegoers may never give it a chance.

I think LOTR may have the best shot. If they have a decent screenplay to work with and the movie can be made accesible enough to a wide audience then $250-$300M is possible. The screenplay is crucial. A great novel doesn't give you a great movie. You've got to have a screenplay that captures the essense of the story while simultaneously using the strengths and limitations of film.

[JonathanLB]

I don't think LOTR has any chance of beating Shrek, but I guess it has more of a chance than JP3 or Planet of the Apes.

JP3 will not make it to $200 million, trust me. How many other very good action movies came out this summer that will still make less than that by far? Fast and Furious, Tomb Raider, Swordfish, etc. JP3 is not so special it'll break $200 million. That takes a truly huge blockbuster, not just another action movie. I kind of hope it does make $200 million though because that would be pretty sweet if the movie is actually really good.

Planet of the Apes looks awesome. I can't wait to see it.

As for what Darth23 said, I already agree with that. I thought the Harry Potter trailer was just UTTERLY STUPID. I will not see such a dumb kiddie movie. I don't know how the books are, but everyone says they are for adults as well as kids. Well, clearly the movie is aiming at the kiddie audience because it is NOT like a Star Wars film. The TPM trailers were absolutely awesome and nobody would think for a second, "There's a PG movie." With Harry Potter, I wanted to see something amazing but instead the trailer just sucked hard and looked totally uninteresting. I doubt I'll waste my money seeing it in theaters and I usually see basically every movie (even Dr. Doolittle 2, haha). The trailer, for me, is at least 50% of the selling factor for a movie. Great trailer, I WILL SEE THE MOVIE even if it gets the worst reviews humanly possible and even if that is the only promotional material I see for the film. Great trailer makes me interested. Bad trailer means I won't see it unless I hear good things about it from other people and it has very strong reviews, or it has talent I like (Fight Club had the worst trailer ever made I believe, but it was actually one of my top 20 films -- 4 stars!).

Speaking of that, The Score had a pretty so-so trailer. I'd give it probably 2 or 2.5 stars, the trailer that is, and it really didn't interest me much. I thought it had potential, though, so I knew I would "probably" see it, but had it received mediocre or bad reviews, I literally would not have gone out and seen it. Because it was well-reviewed and had excellent talent attached, I did see it and I really liked it. Great plot twist at the end, just the way it was done was neat, and the acting was so good, which really proved vital to the movie. The Score is a rare intelligent movie in a season filled with great action films and stupid comedies (stupid comedy does not mean bad film; some of the best comedies are stupid).

[Jedi Master Kyle]

I think LOTR has the best chance. From the sounds of it, there are quintillions of fans out there (I have yet to meet one, that's why I don't get it) but I'm going by what everyone says that it will be the movie with the best chance of beating Shrek and taking the top spot of the year. In my mind, this film (and trilogy) is like a volcano waiting to erupt.

[JonathanLB]

In my mind, it's all hype and LOTR will do well, but not that well, and there will be a giant number of seriously mad LOTR fans. I hope I'm wrong, but it's too much hype for me. I'll see the first movie opening day of course, but so much hype for a film series that hasn't proven itself whatsoever and based on great books, yes, but with questionable talent attached. We'll see how it works out.

For LOTR fans to be so arrogant and moronic as to say "LOTR will rule all and the movies will beat Star Wars and be more popular too, nah nah nah!" is just hilarious. Star Wars has no rival in LOTR, LOL, neither does Star Trek even. There is no comparison between a cultural phenomenon like Star Wars and a few films like the LOTR Trilogy.

I hope they succeed, though, because if they're good it could be a really sweet trilogy!

[RHJediKnight]

The Lord of the Rings is the Star Wars of the literary world, but I agree, no matter how great the films might turn out to be (I'm really hoping they're all excellent), they will never equal the phenomenon that Star Wars is.

[JonathanLB]

Yes exactly, just as the Star Wars books are not nearly as good or as well-selling as the LOTR books.

Lord of the Rings rules the fantasy genre and the literary world, but Star Wars rules film. Both properties are now, or have already, expanded into each other's realms :)

Star Wars has found great success with its books, selling tens of millions of copies, probably hundreds of millions, but there are many of them too. They're not as good, or individually as impressive in sales, as LOTR. Same with LOTR; the movies should succeed and do well, big hits, like the Star Wars books, but more like $150 million, not $500 million each, hehe.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still think LOTR will do better than 150, I think it will do somewhere south of 300 maybe between 250-275. I think the films will really be hyped up and a lot of people will go see it just to see what its all about much like TPM. A lot of movies have used hype to make a lot of money, The Grinch, ID4, Jurassic Park all come to mind and I think LOTR will be similiar to those perfomances.

[JonathanLB]

Yes, but hype must meet reality and that's when you find out if the opening weekend gross is going to be the only thing impressive about the movie's release, or if it'll have long legs.

Jurassic Park was a very successful movie not because of hype but because of its quality. It's a Steven Spielberg film, after all.

A funny thing happens when the hype and expectations don't meet with the quality of the product: GODZILLA! lol. Other films come to mind too. Or there are the good movies that simply have big built-in audiences and drop quickly. X-Men and X-Files come to mind. I didn't hear anyone saying those films sucked, in fact most people I know thoroughly enjoyed both movies, but they dropped like rocks at the box office because of the fan bases.

Star Wars has the best of both worlds because even though there are tons of fans who flock to theaters immediately to see the movies, there are so many other people interested in them that the dropoff because of fans flooding theaters in the first days is not even noticeable. TPM performed like an adult movie with excellent word of mouth, not like a teen flick, for instance, with excellent word of mouth. Teens are fickle and rush to movies immediately, leaving nothing for the following weekends. Adults take their time and see a movie when they want, not when it opens, so that's why The General's Daughter and films like that found much success after their fairly average openings. Only a few movies are so incredible as to enjoy excellent staying power and a monster opening. Even Titanic did not have both. $28 million is a good, solid opening, but nothing incredible whatsoever. X-Men had an awesome opening, but lousy staying power. Combine both elements and you've got TPM, or if you're Titanic you only need one element ;)