Jurassic Park 3 vs America's Sweethearts!!

[Darth23]

Is this the last big BO battle of the summer?

Julia Roberts had a string of 100 million dollar movies going until The Mexican came out. The First Jurassic Park has one of the longest runs in modern movie history, and the sequel had some of the shortest legs for a big movie in a while.

Are kids still gaga for dinosaurs? Will the Julia Roberts movie magic hold up yet again? (and drive Turbo crazy?)

Stay tuned.

[Jedieb]

Well the Mexican had the curse of Brad Pitt going against it. I expect American Sweethearts to do much better. I'm a big John Cusack fan so I'm more inclined to see it than a Roberts movie with Brad Pitt, but that's just me. The addition of Billy Crystal to the cast can only help matters. He's very funny and it looks like he's got some great lines. I'll actually be going to the movies this weekend as a birthday treat and I'm torn between AS and JP3. Decisions, decisions,....

[jjwr]

I wanna see JP3 but going on vacation this weekend and not gonna get a chance, oh well, there's always video!

I think both will do well, JP may open huge but it'll drop off, should still clear 100+ easy though, Sweethearts should last longer and make a good chunk of change as well.

[JonathanLB]

JP3 will make $145 million at the box office, I believe. :)

$3...2...1...hundred million, get it? haha. First movie cleared $300, then $200, now this one will make it past $100, but that's about it.

Brad Pitt isn't that bad, come on, look at some of the movies he has done lately! Snatch and Fight Club, to name two EXCELLENT movies in the last few years. He did a great job in both.

Norton is such a good actor too, though, wow. The Score was a good movie just because of him and De Niro, and it's direction and the plot twist, ok, hehe :)

[CMJ]

I'm really excited about JP3...but I'm very leary of it's BO prospects. I have a feeling it's not gonna do very well.

[JonathanLB]

Nah I think you are wrong. It will still be a huge hit and especially given its promotional campaign, I think even people who were moderately turned off by the second film are going to give it one last chance and if this movie sucks, that'll be it.

Do you think there is any chance for a Jurassic Park 4 if this movie made, say, $350 to $400 million worldwide? I'm just wondering if they would pursue that or choose to close it at three. I never see why a good trilogy comes to an end when you could easily continue it, not unless the third movie blows, which sometimes is true, or it bombs.

I thought Beverly Hills Cop III was the best movie of all, but other people didn't agree. It was clearly the best made and I just liked it better. I bet there's a chance Eddie Murphy comes back and does a fourth, just like they did with Lethal Weapon.

You could practically make infinite JP movies if they continue to succeed. There will be infinite Bond films :)

I think JP3 actually looks really good! I mean, it's not going to be a great thought-provoking film, but it looks sweet. It's only 92 minutes long, anyone else really surprised by that?!

$93 million for 92 minutes? That's more on a per-minute basis than TPM.

[CMJ]

I think it looks cool too Jon! I love Dino's...have since I was a little boy.

BUT...every time I see the preview with an audience...I sense a "who cares" vibe. Thats why I'm notsure about it's potential BO.

[Darth23]

92 minutes will give it more showings.

You seriously get into diminishing returns after like 3 or 4 films. Look at the Rocky movies. I suppose Bond was different, but most of them were based on books, so there was more material to work with. I think Star Wars is different because all 6 films are telling one story. With normal movie sequels usually there's some Hollywood players fiddling with the 'formula' to get another 'vehicle' to try to repeat the success of the first one.

Unless Michael Criton writes the story for JP4 I wouldn't think it would be able to do more than 100 million. I mean, how many times are idiotic humans going to go hang out with dinosaurs? I supposed they coudl have a TWIST and have a big dinosaur come to some place like, oh I don't know.... New York maybe. And it could be pregnant and lay some eggs in Madison Square Garden...

[CMJ]

Like GODZILLA??? :) Boy THAT'D be good!! (note sarcasm) :)

[JonathanLB]

ROFL!!!!! That is Godzilla, Darth!!! :)

hahaha, that was so funny. Yeah you're probably right, I don't see a fourth film happening probably and jeez, you'd think they'd figure it out eventually, the dinosaurs are DANGEROUS, leave them alone! Dumb humans. Dang, and we thought we were evolutionarily ahead (is that second to last thing a word?).

Dinos are cool, though, JP3 looks tight. My friends are all stoked about seeing it, but I don't know if that goes for the general populous.

Face it, this isn't the kind of film that's going to draw rare-moviegoers to theaters. My dad doesn't go to many films in theaters and he went to see The Score with me, for instance, because he was interested in the acting and heard good things about it, but most 50+ people see few movies in theaters and JP3 won't be one of them.

[Jedieb]

You're right Jon, Brad Pitt isn't all that bad. He has done quite a few movies outside of pretty boy roles. It's just that I can still see his face all over those Legends of the Fall posters..shudder.........

Seriously though, you really think BHC3 was the best of the bunch?! I'm shocked! I thought it was by FAR the worst! It looked like it was cheaply made in comparison to the first two. Everything from the score to the direction was substandard IMO. Murphy and Landis have done MUCH better work (Trading Places, Coming to America). When the highlight of your movie is a cameo by George Lucas you know you're in trouble. I don't think I've ever even seen it in one entire sitting. I lost interest by the time Axel showed up in Beverly Hills and Rosewood went into his unfunny "I control the lines" bit. It was a shame they lost John Aniston (sp?). He and Judge Reinhold played off of each other quite well. You're the first person I've ever heard say they thought BHC3 was the best of the Axel Foley trilogy. To each his own. :)

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, I guess so. Well, it was my favorite. It was the only one I saw in theaters and when I was "young and impressionable," so if you want to use that as the excuse why I like it so much, feel free ;)

I thought the second was probably my second favorite, first was actually my least favorite though I loved it too. I just liked all three of the movies. I used to watch them all of the time.

Brad Pitt can be very good, but yeah, he's kind of a pretty boy sometimes.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think JP 3 might surprise some people and it might come close to 200 when it is done. I say this for two reasons. First NBC just ran the first Jurassic Park the other night , it won its time spot and got a 5.6 rating which a few observers called amazing. I am sure everybody that watched it saw the countless JP 3 ads attached to it. There must have been 4 trailers during the commericals and they occassionally showed behind the scene footage of the major dinosaurs feature in the movie. I think this publicity will greatly help the film. Second so far the there has been a postive reception to it by critics. Rotten tomatoes has 22 reviews up right now with 15 postive. Most of them are calling it a great popcorn movie which will help it with a lot of people. I also think the running time will help, its short so more people might go because of its length. Its the opposite affect of a 3 hour movie. I still think it will open around 45 for the weekend and make between 175-200 for the summer but I guess we will see.

As far as a JP 4 it makes close to 200 domestically I guarentee they will make another one, I am clueless what it could be about. Maybe the raptors and pteredons(sp) could invade costa Rica (which is nearby) and a team of Grant, Malcolm, and others go there to stop it.

[CMJ]

Yeah I can't believe that this film has a positive critical reaction. Maybe it will have good word of mouth afterall. I plan on seeing it today.

[Darth23]

There are a lot of 'fresh' reviews at rottentomatoes that arent' really fresh. The LA Times guy said like one good thing about the movie, and the listed it as a positive review. The BBC review end by basically saying the characters are so stupid that you'll be cheering for the dinosaurs. That was another POSTIVE review.

I'm wating to hear from some real people.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think they are considered postive because they all call the film a good popcorn movie. Most popcorn films do have terrible characters but that does not make them less entertaining. Also I just read Roger Ebert's review, he gives the film 3 stars saying its an entertaining movie, anybody wishing to read his review here is the link
www.suntimes.com/output/ebert1/cst-ftr-rog18f.html (http://www.suntimes.com/output/ebert1/cst-ftr-rog18f.html)

[DaBoSsNaStY]

I just watch it.. and thought it was ok. I was sort of let down by it, the early ads sort of gave me a different idea in how this movie would be like. But I will not rune it, and I'll stop right here; until more people have seen it:)

[JonathanLB]

I thought JP3 was pretty awesome, so did my friend. I'd give it 3.5 stars, better than the second and worse than the first. :)

HOLY GOD that movie was full! FoxDVD said the same thing. All showings were sold out an hour in advance he said and had to see FF instead. With us, we got there 25 minutes early and got tickets ok but there was a line of about 55 people, longest all summer at Evergreen easily.

This was the 2:55 too, just after the 2:10, so that's even weirder. It was entirely full by the time the movie started.

Trust me, this movie will make a HUGE impact in five days. It'll easily clear $50 million if it has this same momentum every day. I think it would not be unusual to believe it could have done $15 million on Wednesday, no joke.

This movie is looking at a massive five-day total!

[DaBoSsNaStY]

by far it was better than the second one!

I went to the 2:30 showing, and it was over 3/4 full, pretty good for an afternoon showing in the middle of the week.

[Jedieb]

A 19M Wed. this far into summer is very impressive. I wonder how JP3 will hold up on Friday when the Robert's flick premieres. The two will either be neck and neck or JP3 may actually dominate. I don't see anyway AS will blow it away but I think it could win the weekend because JP3 has already had it's first day business. It's also a classic date movie and it may even get some spill over business from JP3. This is sure to be the best BO weekend we've had lately.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I hear its getting pretty bad reviews worse than JP 3. I think JP3 will win the weekend because its got a higher demographics than AS does. I think the most AS can make is 25-30 million while JP 3 will make 45-60 million even though it made 19 yesterday. As CMJ said the theater he was in was very crowded which is odd for a Thursday and the weekend hasn't even hit yet. I am certain now it will do 50 for the weekend and it still has an outside chance of unseeting the Mummy Returns for #1. It probably won't do since it opened on a Wed, if had opened on Friday it would have easily broken that mark.

[CMJ]

I'm betting somewhere around 90M for the first 5 days.....

[JonathanLB]

Wow, if it did that much I would be extremely impressed. That would surely leave it with $175 million eventually, or more I suppose.

[Force Master Hunter]

I know JP3 is a sequel to two previous huge movies, but was anyone expecting to get out of the blocks so damn fast?!?!

No way American Stupid Chick Flick will win the weekend

[JonathanLB]

hahaha, my feelings exactly. Stupid frickin' chick flick. I'm more inclined to see Legally Blonde than I am this stupid thing.

No, I didn't expect Jurassic Park 3 to do even close to this well opening day. I was thinking it might have a $50 to $60 million opening five days. It looks like it could be a lot greater than that, but anyway, I never thought it would make more than $10 million on opening day. At least, that was before I went to the theater and saw the lineup. Then, I told my friend I thought it would clear $15 million for the day. That wasn't a bad prediction, considering.

[swooshdark]

I think *both* movies will do well. Jurassic Park III. I'm pencilling in Jurassic Park III for a dino-sized $80+ million 5-day take, around $50 million of that this weekend.

I agree that NBC's Jurassic Saturday where they showed JP1 and an exclusive preview for JPIII probably helped.

American Sweethearts I think will end up at around $25-$35 million. I think there are a lot of women and the date crowd have been waiting for this one in the wake of all the teen and action/sci-fi films, so I expect it to put Julia back on her $100+ million streak.

Planet of the Apes I think again will open quite large next weekend, and JPIII will probably suffer a JPII type downturn.

But still, I think we're seeing a new phenonemon -- the "second wind" of summer. Perhaps from now on, studios will position more of their bigger films towards late July/early August. I think Rush Hour 2 and The Princess Diaries have strong $100 million potential as well (actually RH2 would be a shoe-in, Princess Diaries I think will out do Legally Blonde).

Usually by mid-July all the biggest films of the summer have already come out, but I think we'll see summer movie going became segmented into three parts (May 1st to Memorial Day; Memorial Day to mid-July; mid-July to Labor Day).

The movie industry is booming still, however, and it shows no signs of a down turn. This fall/winter promises huge box office as well with Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, and several others en route. And 2002, with Star Wars Episode II, Spider-Man, Austin Powers 3, Men In Black 2, The Matrix Reloaded, LOTR: The Two Towers, etc. that should shatter every conceivable record.

[JonathanLB]

2002 is actually looking very good. Spiderman will RULE!

[Jedieb]

Well, I went and saw JP3 last night. My wife and I both enjoyed it. It avoided the major problem that JP2 had by keeping the film tight at just over 90 minutes. If you think about it, JP2 was doing fine until it got to San Diego(IMO). The theater was PACKED. There were some pretty long lines outside the theater. I was planning on seeing AI but we missed the starting time because of the lines. JP3's short running time was a bonus because we wanted to get back early to pick up the kids. So the short running time was a factor in my seeing it so I would assume it's had the same effect on a few other movie goers. I think JP3 will have stronger legs than JP2 simply because word of mouth is bound to be stronger. I think it should pull in around $50M more than JP2. Which is pretty impressive for a 2nd sequel.

[CMJ]

LOST WORLD grossed nearly 230M(229 if I remember correctly). So Jedieb is on record....JP#3 will gross 280 MILLION !!!! Maybe you aren't being optimistic...but geez I think you are.

By the way the dreaded San Diego part that everyone blames LW's poor rating by alot of people was only about 15 minutes. I still think LW is a superior film to JP3(of course I've watched it a HELL of a lot more times, so maybe my opinion will change in time). Of course the original JP, which I just finished watching(on my antiquated Laserdisc player...hey LD's forever!) is better than both of them by a mile.

One thing I missed in JP3 was Malcolm's great barbs. He had a ton of them in JP and several in LW.

Malcolm: I love kids everything always can and will happen....same with wives.

Grant: You married?

Malcolm: Occasionally. I'm always on the lookout for the next EX-Mrs. Malcolm.

LOL!!

[JonathanLB]

Yes, CMJ is right about Jurassic Park. There is no comparison between the first film and the next two. The first is just AWESOME in every way and truly what I consider a masterpiece, but I would never, ever call either sequel a masterpiece, haha, no way. That would be embarrassing. They're both just fun blockbusters and I enjoyed them both thoroughly, actually, but perhaps I was more happy with JP3 because I knew what it was going to be, whereas I thought Lost World could still be another strong movie in terms of plot and I was wrong...

JP3 won't make $280 million, haha, that would be about like The Sixth Sense. Lost World had SUCH an incredible opening that it didn't need to maintain any momentum to hit $200 million (and it didn't have any momentum so that was a good deal! haha).

I mean, if you sit down and think about just how much money $92 million is in 4 days, you get the picture. Everyone thought Godzilla would kill the record in 1998, but it didn't even come close. That made it seem a bit more impressive. Then, the most anticipated movie in history couldn't beat LW's opening weekend gross (for obvious reasons -- it wasn't a holiday, fewer theaters, more children's admissions at cheaper prices). For an opening weekend record to stand the test of time for four years is more than just a little impressive. That is the type of record that usually falls all of the time.

[CMJ]

Before LW got the record...it was one that fell every 2 years or so(sometimes not even that long). I think LW has a chance to keep the record another 2-3 years...maybe longer. It is such a HUGE number in 3 days...over 72M(I'm just comparing 3 day frames). I mean MUMMY RETURNS got close....but....LW still stands.

[JonathanLB]

I think Episode II will take the record next year, but that's just my opinion.

The fact that the movie opened on a Friday, and SW movies open on a Wednesday, obviously hurts a good deal. If JP3 had opened on Friday it would have had a better weekend too, but the studio was VERY smart to open it on Wednesday as is evident from the $30 million during those two days. It gave it another few playing days before Planet of the Apes, which definitely helps.

[CMJ]

Once again the fact that Episode II will probably open on a Wednesday will work against it attaining the 3 day opening record. Of course I could very well be wrong...it will probably be close.

[JonathanLB]

I'm betting that inflation and improving theaters will make for higher ticket prices and a higher theater count, at least slightly, and that's just enough to push Episode II over LW. We'll see. If not, it'll still have a powerful opening.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Jedieb forgot how much JP 2 made unless he really thinks it will make 280. Now it might make 50 more than it did world wide that is possible. JP 2 made about 621 I think so 670 for JP 3 is surely possible with its popularity overseas. Here in the U.S it could pass the gross of TLW and make 235 or so that is within reason, I would be shocked if it got past 250 even though I think its better than the last one. As for the length I also think TLW dragged in places. When there weren't no dinos around the movie had problems and dialogue was very good. JP 3 never really had that problem because once they landed on the island they were attacked by dinos constantly and were always on the run which helped keep the movie exciting and entertaining.

[JonathanLB]

I also thought, as one critic said, the screenplay was much stronger for JP3 and actually pretty smart. There were some good lines and none of the dialogue bothered me really, so I thought they did a good job. Same writers as Election, I guess.

[CMJ]

Well I wasn't terribly impressed with the dialogue...maybe I should see it again. I do know there weren't any classic lines like this....

Harding: I'll be back in 5 or 6 days.

Malcolm: No you'll be back in 5 or 6 pieces.

LOL! Leave it to Malcolm to put thinbgs in their proper perspective. He had several more quips like that in LW that I can remember.

[JonathanLB]

hahaha! Yeah that's a great line. I thought there were plenty of good ones in JP3 too.

Maybe I should watch Lost World tonight. I definitely like Jeff Goldblum and that is the disadvantage of JP3, he's not in it. Still, Sam Neill or whatever his name is also did a good job and I like him too. They're both in the first film, the best film :)

I liked this exchange from JP3:

"Well what would happen if they caught us with the eggs?"

"What would happen if they caught us without them!"

LOL. That was awesome.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I liked this one Its not a word for word quote I can't remember the exact words but it went something like this.
Grant: Did you read Malcolm's book?
Eric: Yes but its too preachy, its all chaos this and Chaos that. I found him too full of himself.
Another one
Grant: Where did you get T-Rex pee
Eric: You don't want to know

There are others but I can't think of any off hand I have to see it again to get a better opinon of the dialogue.

[Jedieb]

JMC is right, I completly forgot how much JP2 made. I could have sworn it made under $200M. I was actually thinking of a $180M number and that JP3 would bring in up to $50M more than that. Now that I know exactly what JP2 made I think it has a fair shot at crossing the $200M mark and surpasing JP2 by a few million, but not $50M. Blame that other guess on the Whiskey Sours I had with my steak and lobster. ;)

[CMJ]

Nah...it did do very well. It was the 3rd highest grosser of the '97 domestically(behind TITANIC and MEN IN BLACK), and I think it was #2 that year world wide(I'm pretty sure it edged MIB out internationally).

[JonathanLB]

LW did awesome. It's weird it wasn't higher than #3 with a $229 million gross, that's very awesome. Any movie now can gross $100 million with a fairly good opening, but $200 still requires at least a huge opening and a bad run after that, or a good opening and great staying power.

The JP franchise is so extremely valuable for Universal, lol, no way will they stop at three. Not with grosses like this.

[CMJ]

Yeah 229M in some years would be #1, or at the very least #2. MIB though grossed around 250M if I recall, and then of course TITANIC was a tremendous phenomenon. Wow...'97...what a year for Big BO.