POTA...25 million for Friday?

[foxdvd]

WOW..it killed JP3..unless it comes back Sat...it has been hit HARD by POTA

[Darth23]

JP3 is only down 62% from last Friday. ;)

Can you say Lost World Legs?

[CMJ]

Isn't it 59%? Whatever...makes little difference. I was really shocked how much POTA hit JP3 to be honest. Of course the theatre I saw POTA was really full for a matinee showing. BUT GEEZ...thats like gotta be one of the highest opening day #'s ever. It looks like it's the second highest(at least that comes to mind...anyone know any different?) that I can remember. Wow...pretty amazing.

[foxdvd]

we have to see what Sat. numbers are going to be..if it falls from 25 million..JP3 should see its Sat be a much smaller drop...maybe under 50 percent..

[CMJ]

Or have a small Saturday bounce this could be historic. POTA is on track to best LW's 3 day tally....

[foxdvd]

the only prob will be Sunday...Lost World made so much on Sunday because it was sort of like a Saturday....

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, that still is the second highest grossing day ever, $26+ million on Sunday for Lost World, second only to TPM's monster first day gross.

I think it's very possible you can say bye-bye to Lost World's opening weekend record. Thanks for playing LW, come again. lol.

It's possible Saturday could be the all-time highest single day gross for an individual movie, beating TPM's opening day. I said it's possible, not necessarily going to happen, though.

Anyway, I never much care about TPM's many opening records falling because those are types of records that literally should be erased on a yearly basis or so, or at least by a few years after, they should be gone. With higher ticket prices and more theaters, there is no stopping it. Most important is what a film makes for its final gross and how many weeks it spends in the top ten, etc. Those are the best stats. The openings are just a reflection of excellent marketing, even for TPM. Episode II needs 3,500 theaters to compete, hehe. Nah, I hope they don't do that. It's annoying to see a film debut so impressively then fall fast, and any opening in 3,500 theaters is going to suffer more second weekend than one in 3,000 theaters.

I'm still absolutely blown away by a frickin' $25 million opening Friday, though! LOL. Holy hell. This box office is smoking lately, but talk about annihilating the competition! Wow. TPM left room for other movies, but POTA just raped Jurassic Park 3!!!! LOL.

With the box office doing as it is, very sufficiently proving that people are not "sick" of movies for the summer, there is no question in my mind Rush Hour 2 will earn at least $40 million next weekend, but very likely $45 million or so. Easy. Everyone wants to see it and it'll hammer both JP3 and POTA.

[Dutchy]

Anyway, I never much care about TPM's many opening records... With higher ticket prices and more theaters, there is no stopping it. Most important is what a film makes for its final gross and how many weeks it spends in the top ten, etc.

Though a movie's final gross of is course also influenced by higher ticket prices. And to a less extent by more theaters as well.

[CMJ]

Everyone wants to see it?? Really? I mean I do...but no one else I know is really hankering to go. I just don't sense a big groundswell of support for it...but maybe there is.

[JonathanLB]

Umm...ok, then watch CMJ. Of course there is tons of interest in it! Hello?! The first movie made $140 million or something, biggest September opening in history. This is a no-brainer. Everyone wants to see Rush Hour 2, even people I know who have been avoiding summer films like JP3, Tomb Raider, and Planet of the Apes.

At least $40 million in opening weekend, trust me, you watch...

Dutchy, you are right, final grosses are obviously influenced greatly by changing ticket prices, but a film still has to have pretty awesome staying power to enter the top ten highest grossing movies of all-time. Rising ticket prices don't make the top ten all that volutile. For instance, the highest grossing movie of all-time has not changed a huge amount in the last 25 years, considering. It was Jaws for two years, then ANH for five, then E.T. for FIFTEEN, then ANH for one, Titanic for more than three years to the present time (a bit volutile lately, considering there was no change for fifteen years). It's not like the opening weekend record, which generally goes very quickly, except that LW has had it for more than four years now.

More theaters does not influence the final gross *whatsoever*. Come on, that is absurd. American Beauty never had that many theaters, even, but everyone who wanted to see it eventually had the opportunity because the film just played forever, plus a re-release (one of the most successful Oscar re-releases in history).

What you are saying is that I could argue TPM was at a disadvantage because it only had 3,000 theaters, not 3,500? Umm...that is not really true. That means absolutely nothing. Of course, if you are going to go back in time to 1977 and say there were many few theaters, so that made a difference, then that is probably true, but at this point in time, theaters cover every location in this particular country, which is exactly why our box office is more static with regard to the highest grossing films.

I guarantee that regardless of Episode II's gross in North America, it WILL make more internationally, and that is for the simple reason that many countries are not developed and continue to add theaters weekly, so in the time between TPM and its sequel, there are enough new theaters in developing countries to guarantee an increase in total international receipts. That's just how it works, but not in the United States. Not any more. We are saturated with theaters and any wide release is available to people in every market, essentially, except in cases with disputes between the exhibitor and the studio, ugg, ok enough with the exceptions. You get the point.

[CMJ]

RUSH HOUR's records Jon...and how well it did for that matter. Of course it came out in September after a month of CRAP that was shipped out to us that August. If I remember right there really hadn't been a good film that came out in over a month...PLUS the preview was funny as hell. Even then it was a HUGE shock the film opened as big as did(most analysts were predicting like 15-20M...it did 40+). The preview for this one didn't seem as funny(to me) and it's in a much, MUCH more crowded marketplace.

[JonathanLB]

Umm...CMJ. lol. Actually, Rush Hour opened with $33 million, not even close to $40+ million! Of course not, that would never happen in September, not until ticket prices are way, way higher, or they open a Star Wars film in that month. LOL.

Look I only have to wait a week before I'm right, so all I have to say is: trust me. Rush Hour 2 will clear $40 million in three days. It will.

[CMJ]

You are right Jon...333M. I don't know why I thought it opened to $)M and some change...but I did. Nonetheless, the rest of my post is true.

It might open with over 40M. It could very well open MUCH higher than that(in this summer anything is possible)...I just don't see it being as successful as the first in the final analysis.

[Dutchy]

Dutchy, you are right, final grosses are obviously influenced greatly by changing ticket prices, but a film still has to have pretty awesome staying power to enter the top ten highest grossing movies of all-time. Rising ticket prices don't make the top ten all that volutile. For instance, the highest grossing movie of all-time has not changed a huge amount in the last 25 years, considering.

Agreed.


More theaters does not influence the final gross *whatsoever*.

Not for every movie, but if the general theater count (or screen count for that matter) rises the final gross will rise somewhat too. If not, then there'd be no reason to increase the count anyway.


theaters cover every location in this particular country, which is exactly why our box office is more static with regard to the highest grossing films.

I guarantee that regardless of Episode II's gross in North America, it WILL make more internationally, and that is for the simple reason that many countries are not developed and continue to add theaters weekly

I can see your point, but what's the difference between adding screens (in the USA) and adding theaters in foreign countries? If a movie, in the USA, is shown on more screens then it'll have the same effect more or less. Prolly more less than more, so to speak, but I can't image other than that it will have some sort of effect on a movie's final gross.

[Jedieb]

More screens has to have a positive impact on a blockbuster's gross. Not everyone who misses out on seeing a movie like EP2 or TPM because it's sold out will catch it again. If a movie is sold out then you've lost some potential ticket sales forever. Most viewers will come back and catch the movie the following weekend or month, but a certain percentage will end up passing on the movie alltogether. Those are just the odds. So I'd say that a high screen count is vital for capitalizing on the early excitement of a new release. I do think that SW films are more resistant to the "It's sold out, I'll wait for cable." attitude than other films, but they will lose some sales because of it. You're just not going to get 100% of people who are turned back by sell outs back. You're going to lose a few of them. Even if it's a small percentage, you're still talking about thousands of tickets, maybe more because you've got so many people who are interested in seeing a SW film in the first place.

[JonathanLB]

Well I suppose that is true, but it would be a very small percentage I think. One thing is for sure, if the movie is just your average blockbuster, if there is an error with the print or anything like that, you'll definitely lose a number of people.

My friend and I went to see Final Fantasy and the print totally screwed up, so we got our money back and left. I will return to see the film Monday with another friend, but my best friend who went with me opening day will not go and see it now. Just not worth more wasted time, he figures.

I think you are hurting your long-term grosses by opening a film on the maximum number of theaters, though. That's not such a good idea. Not if you want to see any staying power.

CMJ, Rush Hour 2 may not make as much as the first one in total, but I'd say it will probably make $120 million at least. I see it making roughly as much as the first one, but it's opening will be better. It's an August movie, so it can stick around for a while.

[foxdvd]

Not for every movie, but if the general theater count (or screen count for that matter) rises the final gross will rise somewhat too. If not, then there'd be no reason to increase the count anyway.

I am not making an argument here either way on if it makes more money in the end if you increase theater counts, but I do want to dig into that one area. You said there would be no reason to increase theater counts if not for making more overall money. I can think of two reasons. First, theaters are competing for business from other theaters. It makes sense that if there is a market you can stick a theater into, to take money away from another theater, you would do it. If you are one of the major movie theater chains, and you see a competitor making money in an area, you might want to move your own chain in near by to make more money. This would have nothing to do with your desire for a movie to make more money overall, but a simple desire to make more money for yourself.

The second reason they would want to increase theater counts is more on the movie industries side. It is in your best interest if you are a company releasing a movie, to make as much money as you can in the first few weeks. A big budget movie, during the first week, over 80 percent of the money will go back to the studios. By 10 weeks, it might be under 50 percent. It is in your best interest if you are say Dreamworks, for a movie to make most of its money in the first few weeks. Also, when a movie makes a lot of money, or enters as number one in the box office, you get a lot of free press, and it helps your movie make more, especially if you know it is not the kind of movie where word-of-mouth is going to fuel it.


Also, you say that the


I can see your point, but what's the difference between adding screens (in the USA) and adding theaters in foreign countries? If

The difference is in the US, just about everyone is within a short drive to some sort of theater. Even were I live, I can get to a major theater with a short drive. I go to movies, even though I have to drive almost an hour to get there, but if a theater was near me would that make me go to more movies? Maybe, but I can not see me going much more, and there are only 3.5 million people in Oklahoma, and so we are not talking about much of an increase. If I go to 20 movies a year, if a theater was 10 feet from me I might go 22 times..and that is only because I am a movie nut. My parents would not go anymore then they do now.

In other countries, some places, people would have to travel GREAT distances to get to a movie, so it would increase sales if you had more theaters. Also, because America is a country of drivers, we will drive long distances to go to a movie. Other countries, gas prices are higher, and traveling 300 miles to watch a movie is out of the question, especially if you do not even own a car. So in those areas it would help total box office grosses if you added more theaters.

[JonathanLB]

True, true.

There are theaters all over my area. I'm out in the middle of nowhere, but one of the most popular theaters in the city is only 12 minutes away. That's because the area below me is one of rapid expansion and new houses and developments all over, so this theater started with six screens, but has been thirteen screens now for years.

If there were a theater immediately next to me, I mean within walking distance, for instance, I would see more movies each year. Not by a huge amount, and I probably wouldn't see that many more MOVIES as such, but I'd see more screenings. I'd be there much more often.

As it is, sheesh, I only go to the theaters seventy times per year or so. It's pitiful! I hardly ever get out! :)

[Jedieb]

Haven't theater chains taken a hit in the last couple of years? I'm not sure how this would factor directly into this discussion. Myabe it's getting a little tougher for screen counts to get higher and higher if new construction and renovation has slowed down. Theater chains may have to get more competitive with each other to make a buck. They might have to make sure they get their hands on blockbusters with big opening weekends. Then they'd have to make sure they recycled them quickly enough to grab the next big opening. For this reason I think you may see a higher opening screen count for EP2. If business is tight theaters may want to make sure they get that SW money.

[Darth23]

Planet of the Apes - 69.56
Jurassic Park 2 - 22.49
America's Sweethearts - 15.70
Legally Blonde - 9.00
The Score - 7.10

[CMJ]

It went down on Saturday.... JP3 had a nice sized jump last Saturday and look how far it fell THIS weekend!

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, but I'm not quite sure that matters, CMJ, because JP3 did open on a Wednesday, after all, and POTA had a massive amount of anticipation apparently, leading to its Friday gross.

It didn't decrease Saturday, really, it was just flat. Ok it decreased like 0.1% or whatever, but basically not.

I think it will probably hold up decently, but come on, how could it not fall 50%? It will, and it'll make $35 million next weekend, still solid.

[Darth23]

After 25 million I don't think it's a surprise that it went down a bit.

Shrek's back in the top 10.

:p

I think that Rush Hour 2 will do pretty well. A lot of people never saw it in the theaters but liked it when they saw it on cable or video. (like me)

[CMJ]

...then there's no doubt that SHREK will win the summer. I think POTA was the last film thhat had any kind of a shot at unseating the Ogre for the summer crown.

[JonathanLB]

Agreed completely.

Did you really think POTA had a chance at $260 to $265 million, though? I didn't. I don't.

That is a heck of a lot of money. Yes, very good to see Shrek back in the top ten. It's this summer's TPM, basically.

My theater (thirteen screens) has dropped Scary Movie 2 and Tomb Raider already, but has Shrek on a full screen, regular number of showings per day.

I just saw Fast and Furious again today, oh and Darth I'm seeing FF tomorrow, finally, before it leaves the theater (which will probably be this Friday, lol).

It is raining here today pretty badly, which just pisses me off, but it sure looked to be good for the box office. Theaters were pretty full, of course not Fast and Furious though.

[JonathanLB]

Oh gawd, Box Office Guru makes me mad sometimes. I've communicated with the dude there a few times and he's generally fairly helpful, considering how many e-mails he probably receives, but this is the type of thing that just makes me think, what is this guy smoking?!

"On Friday, Planet of the Apes debuted with a towering $25M making it the biggest Friday gross ever and the second largest opening day in history after Star Wars Episode I which debuted on a Wednesday with $28.5M in May 1999. (That figure, however, includes grosses from around-the-clock showings that began at 12:01am Tuesday night.)"

What?! It's WEDNESDAY MORNING buddy, not Tuesday night. Duh. Come on, learn how to tell time already.

Furthermore, if he wants to nitpick, how about this:

-Planet of the Apes had 530 more theaters (than TPM), already making its weekend gross less impressive given that it couldn't beat a four-year old film with fewer theaters and far cheaper tickets.

-Planet of the Apes opened in the summer, when everyone under 22 has more time.

-It opened on a Friday. TPM made its record "opening day gross" on a WEDNESDAY in the spring, technically, or at least a Wednesday when most people were not out of school.

*rolls eyes* Tuesday night, LOL. Tuesday night ends when the clock hits midnight; box office guru is no time guru apparently.

More impressive than POTA's opening, which is incredibly impressive I think, is the stunning achievement of Lost World! At first, when the film made so much, I was just thinking, "Yeah wow that's a lot of money, but it is the sequel to the world's highest grossing film," but now, four years later, when none of Godzilla, TPM, Mission: Impossible 2, Pearl Harbor, Mummy Returns, JP3, or POTA could top Lost World, now I'm impressed.

Tickets were much cheaper in 1997 and the film still made frickin' $72.1 million in three days. Wow. I remember at the start of 1997 when I saw ANH in theaters, Regal did not own Act III Theaters (Portland is the capital city of ACT III, or was, and thus we only have Regal Cinemas here basically, 'cept for one Century theater). Ticket prices in early 1997 were $3 for matinee, no joke, and for kids, then night showings were $6. Now, matinee is $5.25, almost a 100% increase in just four years, and night showings are $7.75 (much less of an increase, but still significant).

I am surprised national ticket prices apparently have not increased as much as regional ones, because here I'm definitely paying 50 to 60% more per showing than four years ago, though nationally the ticket prices apparently have only increased maybe 15% in four years.

[CMJ]

Here matinee's were $3.75 in '97. Now it's $4.50 -$5(depending on the theatre) for a matinee showing with full prices ranging from $6.50 - $7 depending on the theatre. Of course I can get a student discount so my full priced tickets are 5 bucks(I plan to still get my student discount, even when I'm NOT a student).

[Jedi Master Kyle]

Consider yourselves lucky.
Here's a cut & paste directly from my closest movie theater's web site:

Famous Players
Reg. price $11.00
Children (12-) $6.50
Seniors (65+) $6.50
Weekday mat. $7.50
Weekend mat. $9.00
Tue, Wed. $7.00

[Darth23]

Eleven bucks for a movie?

I buy cheep dvds for 10. :-|


Tickets were much cheaper in 1997 and the film still made frickin' $72.1 million in three days.

Holiday assisted, Jon, Holiday assisted. :p

[Jedi Master Kyle]

yep, 11 bucks for a movie, and the worst thing is, they aren't the most expensive either. They reach as high as 12 in a couple spots. But there are some with cheaper seats, 10, and 9, but that's pretty much it. sick huh?

[JonathanLB]

Yeah, the holiday "assisted" it for a good $5 million probably. That Sunday gross was the best ever at the time, for any day, and still is 2nd I believe, so that wouldn't have happened if the following Monday wasn't off...

Still, it's impressive!

[Dutchy]

I am not making an argument here either way on if it makes more money in the end if you increase theater counts, but I do want to dig into that one area. You said there would be no reason to increase theater counts if not for making more overall money. I can think of two reasons.

Reason 1...

Reason 2...


Well, with both reasons the only goal is making more money, so I guess we basically agree then. I already said it will especially make for a better opening and for a better gross as well, but, and lemme repeat: to a less extent.


Other countries, gas prices are higher, and traveling 300 miles to watch a movie is out of the question, especially if you do not even own a car. So in those areas it would help total box office grosses if you added more theaters.

That's definitely true. My country, for instance, isn't even 300 miles west to east nor north to south. :)