Would you believe 60 million for Rush Hour 2?

[Darth23]

1 Rush Hour 2 - 22,617,500
2 Planet Of The Apes - 8,357,500
3 Princess Diaries - 8,170,500
4 Jurassic Park 3 - 3,504,500
5 American'S Sweethearts - 2,685,000
6 Original Sin - 2,153,000

[Darth23]

Would you believe 25 million for POTA?

I think that would be a 63% drop.

[Jedi Master Kyle]

Sweet fancy Moses! Those are 2 Staggering stats! What is up with POTA?????

[Jedieb]

I knew I should have guessed higher for RH2! D'OH!

[CMJ]

POTA had gone down EVERYDAY since it's opening and on a thread yesterday I said it might fall in a monumental way. It might not gross more than JP3 afterall. As far as RUSH HOUR 2....damn! There's no way it can gross 60M this weekend is there?? It's gonna HAVE to fall today right? Man this summer keeps getting stranger and stranger....

[Darth23]

Yeah it went down, but when it's pulling in 8 then 7.5 then 6 million on a weekday, that's still pretty impressive.

---

Rush Hour 2 probably had the sequel effect, but it's also the first big action comedy of the season, and it seems liek it doesn't totally suck - so the word of mouth wil be good.

Which means it probably won't collapse over the weekend.

[CMJ]

Nonethless....POTA had 67% drop! I just didn't like the way it's numbers kept delining like that. I do think RH2's biggest day was yesterday....I doubt it'll make more today.

[foxdvd]

we will not know till Sunday, but an A score for a movie that was seen by so many, is really good...and those under 21, both male and female gave it an A+...so we could see a jump today..if so you could see it make more then POTA..

[foxdvd]

and 67% drop for POTA..so it will prob have about a 63-65% drop for weekend....and JP3 saw a 47% drop..so it should see a 43-45 % drop this weekend..so it at least slowed its drop..if only by a bit..

[Darth23]

RH2 could drop today, but I don't think it will drop a lot. A 10% decline still gives it 20 million, ad another 18 on Sunday and it hits 60 million.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Man that is a shock. POTA is dropping worse than JP3 last week did. Can it still make it to 200? If the top 5 holds up it looks like me and Jedieb will be the only ones to get top 5 right.

[JonathanLB]

haha, yeah POTA is doing pretty sad. Every movie this summer has had AWFUL staying power.

Average staying power means a movie groses FOUR times its opening weekend total, yet almost no movie this summer has even hit the AVERAGE! I mean, a four times multiple is not even good, it's just average and every movie should be able to do that. Good is five times the opening weekend, excellent is in the 6 to 7 range like The Phantom Menace, the first JP, and Independence Day, etc.

Average this summer is three times the opening gross, haha, pathetic! Pitiful.

Rush Hour 2, wow! Haha. It's awesome to average an "A" from all moviegoers, but even more awesome to gross more than $22 million in a single day! I cannot believe how big movies are opening this summer. Heck, TPM "only" made $18 million on its first Friday.

I'm glad to see RH2 doing well, though, because I want to see Rush Hour 3 badly! RH2 is not "decent," it's frickin' awesome. I don't see how anyone could sit through that film without laughing almost constantly.

[JonathanLB]

CMJ, I was not especially alarmed at POTA's weekday declines because if you will remember, TPM made $10.9 million on its first Monday, then fell each weekday down to $7.5 million or so on that Thursday. Huge movies always fall during the week, but later in their runs they manage a more constant number each weekday, as TPM did very soon after. I expected POTA was just doing the same thing, but it looks like RH2 creamed it.

[CMJ]

It rewally depends Jon. JP3 had mid 5M days all week the weekend after it opened, and we all thought it would have good staying power. THEN it got hammered. So the fact that POTA decreased by a rather large increment everyday was foreboding to me, because the previous week had a film with better weekday staying power.

[Darth23]

1 RUSH HOUR 2 - 66.80
2 PLANET OF THE APES - 28.45
3 THE PRINCESS DIARIES - 23.25
4 JURASSIC PARK 3 - 12.06
5 AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS - 8.40
6 ORIGINAL SIN - 6.40
7 LEGALLY BLONDE - 6.06

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well if this estimate stands then Rush Hour 2 will take the third spot away from the TPM. Its hard to believe that coming in to this summer TPM was #1, now its 4th. Now how long will POTA hold this record or for that matter how much longer will TLW hold on to the real 3 day record? The only film that has a chance this year I think is LOTR, but I doubt a winter film could ever make that much, it probably will break the December record what ever that is and make around 50 million. I guess next year there are at least two films that could do it. First Spiderman which should open over 50 at least but probably will make somewhere from 60-70 opening weekend. Then EP2 which opens on a wed probably the 22nd which I think falls right before Memorial Day. If that happens wouldn't EP2 have an outisde chance of beating TLW's record? I think it would of course Lucas could put the movie the week before which would make it very tough. I can't think of any other films that have a chance maybe MIB2 although I doubt it will.

[foxdvd]

Its hard to believe that coming in to this summer TPM was #1

TPM was number 2 coming into this summer..(Oh..you were talking about non-holiday...sorry)

[General Ceel]

Okay, whats with these high opening grosses this summer. Does anybody know if the average ticket price has risen, how about the number of screens that movies open on? If they have, EP2 stands to have a super massive opening.

[JonathanLB]

No Fox, it WAS number one. We're talking about the non-holiday opening weekend gross record. That excludes LW, and Mummy Returns took the record back in May, pushing TPM to second, then POTA beat it too, so that pushed it to third, and now if estimates hold, RH2 beat TPM's opening, pushing it to fourth.

Now just imagine if Regal had taken Rush Hour 2 also. No question it could have added a solid $1 million or so anyway, maybe not that big of a deal, but we're in record territory so every mil. helps a lot.

These films all had many more theaters than TPM, but in RH2's case, not a huge number more. Just more than 100 additional theaters, though ticket price inflation has been especially steep in the last two years, so obviously that helps too. JP3's opening weekend was very impressive and all, but its per theater average was terrible compared to TPM's. $50 million from 3,400+ theaters is NOWHERE near $64.8 million from only 2,970 theaters. POTA had the most theaters of any film except for Mission: Impossible 2...

I have a wager, though it's not like I'd have to pay up forever, but I am betting Rush Hour 2's opening weekend August record will stand for at least five years, if not ten or more. Even with inflation, come on, this movie far more than doubled the old record. This is just further proof that if moviegoers want to see a film, they WILL SEE IT, who cares when it comes out? Anyway, the old August opening weekend record was pitifiul. Even September's opening weekend record (Rush Hour 1, hehe) is stronger, or was...

I want to see Rush Hour 3 come out in October or something and set a new record by far, that way the films rule three months of the year :)

CMJ, do you remember our little discussion about Rush Hour 2 and how "nobody wanted to see it except me" (you said something like that)? LOL. I told you to just wait and see, and indeed the movie had a massive opening. I thought it was obvious it was headed for at least $45 million, though even I am surprised by more than $65 mil.

If Episode II really opens on Wednesday before Memorial Day weekend, it will ANNIHILATE The Lost World's record! No doubt. Spider-Man next year will probably make $65 million in its opening weekend. X-Men did $57, but Mummy Returns did $68, so I think Spider-Man will definitely have a massive opening.

I have a good one for you guys. My best friend, who is a great guy and all and a huge Matrix fan, actually bet ME on a box office issue, which I find interesting given that I analyze the box office constantly, even professionally, and he never pays attention to daily figures and only occassionally even remembers weekend numbers. He bet me $40 that The Matrix will gross more than Episode II. He said "how much will you bet?" and I said, "Any amount, obviously, what do you want to bet?" He's like, "$20?" "Yeah." "$40?" "Sure." lol, he stopped at that.

Before he bet, I at least gave him the facts and warned him that his bet is just a very poor one, but he didn't seem to care. He asks, "Why?" "Why is it a bad bet? Because EVERY SINGLE Star Wars movie has become one of the three highest grossing movies of all time in its first release." "So? The Matrix 2 is going to be HUGE! Everyone wants to see it, people just didn't know about the first one as much."

Come on! The first film couldn't even crack $200 million! There is a LOOOONG ways between $200 million and $400 million, and Matrix 2 stands absolutely no chance of making $350 million, and very, very little chance of exceeding even $250 million.

[Darth23]

I could see Matrix 2 making 300 million, but as popular as it is it doesn't appeal to enough people to push it past the Star Wars movies.

It will be rated R, which is a negative, and the newness factor that the first one had won't be there - unless they do something AMAZING with the next one.


Okay, whats with these high opening grosses this summer.

Maybe companies are doing a better job of hyping / marketing the movies coming out. Pearl Harbor, Tomb Raider, JP3, POTA, Rush Hour 2 all had a certain amount of buzz making thenm THE movie to see for the weekend. They couldn't keep from mostly plummetting after they came out though (Rush Hour might avoid this somewhat, but I think that it will also drop by around 50% next weekend).

Maybe it's a issue of familiarity also. The big movies this summer are mostly sequels, remakes, based on video games, or historical events, so people already know something about the subject matter, which maybe builds interest to see it immediately.

[DaBoSsNaStY]

I also think Matrix 2:Reload has more to lose than the first movie... It could have a big opener.. but it is also going to butt heads with The Two Towers..

Why do I think M2:R has more to lose? Because it will be less mysteries, and going to have to explain the unexplained in the first movie.

[JonathanLB]

Yeah that's definitely true. I can't wait to see The Matrix Reloaded, but still, its chances at $300 million or so are not good. That would place it in the top ten highest grossing movies of all time. I think not...

Matrix 2 will open large, but it won't have good enough legs to hold on that long, unlike the first Matrix film.

I wish Matrix 2 went head-to-head with Episode II, but ah well, can't get everything you wish for :) Episode II would cream that film so bad.

My best friend thinks Matrix is "the greatest movie of all time," lol. It's in my top ten, but geez.

[foxdvd]

boxofficeguru said RH2 was on 4500 screens..500 less then TPM

[Jedi Master Carr]

Matrix 2 will never make more than Star Wars mostly because its R rated. No R rated film has ever made 300 and I doubt this one will be the first. It might make between 200-225 but thats about it.

[Darth23]

Rush Hour 2 is on 3118 screens (I think fox meant 2500).

That's a few more than TPM at it's peak.

I think it's more appropriate to compare TPM to big films that opened on Wednesday. JP3 pulled in only 50 million for the weekend, 80 million for the 5 day period, 25 million less than TPM even though it had 400 more screens and higher ticket prices.

:-)

[JonathanLB]

haha, jeez, nice way of thinking, Darth23. Certainly favorable to TPM! :)

Fox meant 4,500. He was talking about SCREENS, and you said Rush Hour 2 was on 3,118 screens, which is incorrect. It was playing in 3,118 THEATERS, but had well more than that many screens.

Yes, Fox, I noticed what BO Guru said, though I really don't know where they got those numbers. I don't believe them personally. RH2 had five screens at the Century theater here and to say it had only 1.5 screens per theater nationwide, well, I very much doubt that. It probably had 5,000 to 5,500 screens. I saw no official numbers on screens, only what BO Guru said, so who knows if that's right.

Regardless, ticket prices are way higher now. TPM's theaters were definitely more full. Actually, they were sold out almost everywhere.

[Darth23]

Screens - theaters, theaters - screens. Blah blah blah.

I didn't know that anyone published the number of SCREENS a movie was playing on - I thought all the info was for theaters.

[Darth23]

9 million on Monday.

It IS the summertime. I think it will drop every day cause there's no way it can sustain these high numbers.