Prediction Time! JP3 vs POTA

[Darth23]

JP3 - 80 million in 5 days - big second weekend drop

POTA - 70 million in 3 days - small Saturday increase

One is a sequel, one is a remake (ok, reimagining), both are PG-13 playing on more than 3400 screens.

So which one will finish higher at the end of it's run?

[CMJ]

I was wondering that myself actually. I'll say POTA right now...though when I see Monday's numbers I think I'd have a better idea.

[jjwr]

I heard like 69million for PotA for the weekend....figure 50% fall would give it about 34 million next weekend(plus the weekly numbers). I wouldn't be suprised if it went about 210Million.....JP3 will probably taper off around 175M

[JonathanLB]

Good predictions, JJWR. I agree with him and those numbers look pretty accurate, too.

POTA will beat JP3.

[JonathanLB]

"But entertainment industry analyst Art Rockwell forecast Sunday that in the long run, the dinosaurs will win. In an interview with Bloomberg News, Rockwell predicted that business for the apes movie will fall dramatically next weekend." -ShowBizData.com

That guy is on crack. JP3 doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of beating Tim Burton's film, especially with JP3's much weaker opening.

[General Ceel]

People have always loved Dinos. I give it to JP3 in the end, although POTA was the better movie.

[JonathanLB]

Ok, factually speaking, how can you say JP3 will beat Apes? That doesn't logically make sense! One movie had a clearly superior opening and will likely have similar or better staying power, which WILL give it the most money.

Duh.

[General Ceel]

"will likely have similar or better staying power"

Will and will likely are two different things. Titanic didn't open this big and it ended up the hightest money maker of all time. A big opening is not everything.

[Darth23]

Weaker opening?

80 million in 5 days?

How much would POTA have made over the weekend if it had opened on Wednesday? (I knwo there's no way of knowign for sure).

They both had huge openings. POTA made 8 million of Monday compared to Jp3's 5 point something. (last Monday). JP is down about 50% from last week.

I don't think either film with have really major legs. Especially considering the audience survey results for POTA (B-). I think Rush Hour 2 will take the top spot next weekend.

[JonathanLB]

It'll still be fairly close next weekend. I say POTA makes $32 million and Rush Hour 2 makes maybe $44 million. Not a bad weekend, considering...

POTA made $8.22 million Monday, that is awesome, and far better than JP3. The only thing you can say for JP3 is that it had played two days longer before its Monday.

I don't understand how anyone could predict JP3 makes more than POTA. I would bet $20 with anyone here that POTA makes more, but I bet nobody would take that bet, which is exactly why I know I'll be right.

People may not have loved either film overall, but POTA still has better word of mouth than JP3 for sure.

POTA will have made more in 5 days than JP3, anyway, even though it didn't have the benefit of opening on a Wednesday like JP3...

Point is, neither film will have legs at all hardly, but JP3 has already demonstrated such lousy staying power that it has NO chance of beating Apes.

[Jedieb]

POTA also has the "newness" factor going for it. Sequels may outdo their originals early on but they rarely have the legs of their predecessors. So POTA will probably have better legs than JP3. With both films having such strong openings the odds are in POTA favor for it to win the total gross battle. But will it catch Shrek?

[Jedi Master Kyle]

Off hand, I would say no.

[CMJ]

I doubt it, but POTA had a pretty impressive Monday number. Much more so than I was expecting to be honest. I was thinking it would be in the high 6M to low 7M range..... So maybe it'll have legs...who knows....

[foxdvd]

after mondays numbers..there is little to no doubt that POTA will do more then JP3..

[Darth23]

Nothing will catch Shrek!

Mwahahahahahahahahahaha!

:p


POTA made another 7.5 today, at this rate it COULD catch Shrek. How much it drops this weekend will be very interesting.

[JonathanLB]

hehe, no I wouldn't worry too much about that. POTA will not beat Shrek, nor will it come even marginally close. Maybe, if it keeps doing fairly well, it'll make $200 million to $215 million, but that's really not close.

[CMJ]

Hmmmm POTA has dropped EVERY weekday so far. Maybe it's drop this weekend will be of epic proportions. Thats not a prediction mind you...just me typing out loud. :)

[Darth23]

Looks like a huge drop for weekend 2 -

Kind of makes the race a little more interesting.

:D

[CMJ]

Now we're gonna have to ask ourselves if RUSH HOUR 2 can beat both of them! Wouldn't THAT be a shocking development?!?

[Darth23]

Well comedies traditionally have low drops from week to week.

Of course sequels have higher drops....

[CMJ]

On another note I went back to JP3 today and the theatre was really quite full, whuch surprised me since it'll only probaly make about 5M today. The theatre I saw it at was nearly as full as the screening I was at the 2nd day of it's release. I just found that odd.....

Oh and I liked it even more this time....but hey I LOVE dino's so maybe I'm a pushover. :)

[JonathanLB]

haha, I am a pushover sometimes too, especially with a good action flick that has dinosaurs in it, I mean come on.

I want to go back and see that movie again, so I'll do that soon.

Rush Hour 2 will not fall as badly as either JP3 or POTA, I don't think, but come on, look at its opening weekend gross. It has to fall 40% at least, right? If not, then...it'll be like the next TPM or something, haha, j/k.

I say the movie will probably make $190 million or so overall...

[Darth23]

Every number one movie this summer has dropped 50% or more. (Except Shrek)

(I'm pretty sure it's been every one)

[JonathanLB]

That is a pitiful statistic. LOL.

[CMJ]

SWORDFISH didn't...I'm not sure about the rest.

[Darth23]

That's true - Swordfish only dropped 29%.

But then, it debuted at number 1 with only $18 million for the weekend. That's like the weakest day of the opening weekend for some of the big movies. :p

[Darth23]

Mayeb the Big Two WON'T pass 200 million:



From BoxOffice Guru:

In its third weekend, Fox's sci-fi epic Planet of the Apes dropped 52% to an estimated $13.3M pushing its 17-day tally to $148.7M. Produced for just over $100M, the Tim Burton film looks to reach $170-180M in the domestic marketplace.

Following the apes were the dinosaurs of Jurassic Park III with an estimated $7.3M, down 41%, for a total of $160.2M thus far. Universal's $92M adventure film should finish with $175-185M from North America.

[foxdvd]

It looks now that there is a good chance JP3 will end up on top..and even if it does not, it still will be closer then we thought...please now check these quotes from Jon in this thread...



That guy is on crack. JP3 doesn't stand a snowball's chance in hell of beating Tim Burton's film, especially with JP3's much weaker opening.


and


Ok, factually speaking, how can you say JP3 will beat Apes? That doesn't logically make sense! One movie had a clearly superior opening and will likely have similar or better staying power, which WILL give it the most money.

Duh.


I like that duh part at the end..LOL


I don't understand how anyone could predict JP3 makes more than POTA. I would bet $20 with anyone here that POTA makes more, but I bet nobody would take that bet, which is exactly why I know I'll be right.

lol


Point is, neither film will have legs at all hardly, but JP3 has already demonstrated such lousy staying power that it has NO chance of beating Apes.

hmm...I will say that I was not sure which would be number 1 till that first MOnday, and then I really thought that Apes would be 1 for sure...

[Darth23]

it seems like the number 1 movies drop big for a week or two, then hold up better after than.

That's what Pearl Harbor did, Also Fast and Furious and now JP3.

The POTA people have been hyping the movie this week - they've had commercials on TV and a guest or two on the late night talk shows, trying to stop the hemmoraging.

It didn't help. :p

[Jedieb]

The wife and I got a chance to sneak away to a matinee and we saw POTA. Considering our options were American Sweethearts, Legally Blonde, RH2, & POTA, I consider myself lucky. After seeing both JP3 & POTA I'd have to give the nod to JP3. I had a better time at the dino flick.

Not to say that I didn't enjoy POTA, I did. I just honestly didn't enjoy it as much as the original. Yes, the picture looked great and the stunts were pretty decent, but the original flowed better IMO. The original's ending was a lot stronger as well. I'm still trying to figure out the timeline that could have created that ending. They left plenty of wiggle room for a sequel that could explain it and there were flashes that weren't explored that made you think sequels lay in the future. Overall a good movie, just not a great one.

[Darth23]

I think Rush Hour 2 is going to beat them both. It made more on it's second Monday than JP3 made on its FIRST Monday.

[JonathanLB]

I stand by all of my earlier comments. POTA will win.

[Force Master Hunter]

1 American Pie 2 $6,508,375 $51,626,360
2 Rush Hour 2 $3,981,881 $137,507,262
3 The Princess Diaries $2,257,287 $54,349,768
4 The Others $1,920,974 $16,010,926
5 Planet of the Apes $1,415,096 $150,132,461
6 Jurassic Park III $920,750 $161,316,965


Monday's B.O.

COULD well be Rush Hour 2 beating them both.....

[Darth23]

Oops, I'm not sure why I though RH2 made more - maybe I was looking at AP2's gross. :p

[Darth23]

Woah, Rush hour went UP Tuesday - it made 4 million.

It should be an interesting weekend. The 3 movies will all be around the same amount on like Saturday or Sunday.

[Jedieb]

The gap seems to be closing between POTA & JP3. Whichever one wins, it won't be by much.

[CMJ]

RH2 will almost certainly beat both of them....

[Darth23]

True True.

Weekend Numbers:

<table border=0 cellpadding=4 cellspacing=4> <tr><td align=center>2 </td><td align=left>Rush Hour 2 </td><td align=right>- 19,200,000</td><td align=right>- 164,800,000</td></tr> <tr><td align=center>7 </td><td align=left>Planet of the Apes</td><td align=right>- 6,872,000</td><td align=right>- 160,967,436</td></tr> <tr><td align=center>9 </td><td align=left>Jurassic Park III</td><td align=right>- 4,300,000</td><td align=right>- 168,200,000</td></tr></table>

[CMJ]

I'm fairly certain JP3 will outgross POTA now. I should have taken Jon up on that bet. I could use 20 bucks. :)

[Jedieb]

Maybe we should bet $20 on whether or not Jon will admit he was wrong? ;)

Even if POTA does inch ahead of JP3, the margin will be so close that it will obviously have played out as a race that was TOO CLOSE to call.

[Jedieb]

Here are DArth23's weekend numbers again:

Weekend Numbers:

2 Rush Hour 2 - 19,200,000 - 164,800,000
7 Planet of the Apes - 6,872,000 - 160,967,436
9 Jurassic Park III - 4,300,000 - 168,200,000

JP3 has a lead of $7,232,564. This is how much POTA has been outperforming JP3 for the last month:

7/27 $45.9M
8/3 $15.2M
8/10 $5.7M
8/17 $2.5M

If the pattern continue then this is how the next couple of weeks should play out:

8/23 $1.1M
8/30 $220,000

I think it's pretty clear that POTA will most likely not have enough time to make up that $7M. Even if JP3 leaves theaters earlier POTA will probably only be gaining a few thousand bucks a week. Neither of these movies is likely to reach $200M so I doubt we'll see either studio drag their release out. So it looks like JP3 will just edge out POTA and Jon will owe someone some cash.

[CMJ]

I just looked at what JP# was at this time last week and guestimated that POTA has been falling at a steeper clip the whole time. I believe it might actually be behind JP3's pace for the first time.

[Darth23]

Yeah, POTA is making less than JP3 in the same week of release.

They're getting so close, but it looks like JP3 will stay ahead.

[JonathanLB]

Maybe, but nobody bet me. You idiots! :)

Well, POTA in general underperformed. Who would have guessed it would have such lousy staying power?

It still very well could beat JP3 and I'd think it will. I am pretty sure it will still win, but not by much as it should have.

JP3 has done impressively well in my opinion, but POTA has just done alright, given its massive opening it's done awful.

I don't think there was as much interest or enthusiasm about POTA as there should have been. I mean, I really liked it, but I don't think everyone did...

[Jedieb]

It's not going to win! Just admit it's OVER Jon!!!! ;)

POTA was a decent movie, but I don't see its franchise being in the same league as the JP franchise. I mean if the original can't beat the 2nd sequel of the other then you're dealing with a strong, but not phenomenal franchise. I actually think the X-Men franchise has more potential than the new POTA movies. But it makes you wonder if ANY future POTA movie will be able to pass the 200M mark.

[foxdvd]

But it makes you wonder if ANY future POTA movie will be able to pass the 200M mark.

if you had Natalie Portman nude in it...it would.. :) Each week, she takes some more stuff off in the movie..you will want to go back and back.

[flagg]

Most predictions before the summer had Apes opening with $50 million and finishing with about $150 million. Its opening was bigger than anyone imagined, and it will finish with about $175-180 million. True, it's staying power has been pretty lousy, but that holds true for every blockbuster this summer, except Shrek. Even Rush Hour 2 fell 50% its second week, which would have been considered a disaster five years ago.
Apes has already made more than X-Men, so there's a franchise there if Fox wants it.

[Darth23]

Yeah but X-men was GOOD. ;)

POTA fell behind JP3 this past weekend. It looks liek both movies will finish within a few million of each other.

(Rush Hour 2 is still in the top 10 - #6)