CMJ
Feb 25th, 2012, 10:42:56 AM
I may be able to get in one or two more nominees before tomorrow's ceremony - but it was probably my best year about viewing nominees. So, here come the predictions/analysis.
Best Picture
"The Artist" Thomas Langmann, Producer
"The Descendants" Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" Scott Rudin, Producer
"The Help" Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
"Hugo" Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
"Midnight in Paris" Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
"Moneyball" Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
"The Tree of Life" Nominees to be determined
"War Horse" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
Seen: 9/9
The Artist seems to be to 800 pound gorilla in this race, as it has won nearly everything preceding Oscar itself. It'll be a deserving winner, even if not my choice.
Directing
"The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius
"The Descendants" Alexander Payne
"Hugo" Martin Scorsese
"Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen
"The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick
Seen: 5/5
Malick is my pick, but that'll never happen. Hazanavicius will get the award, and it's hard to argue. Making a movie as creatively as he did is quite a marvel.
Actor in a Leading Role
Demián Bichir in "A Better Life"
George Clooney in "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"
Seen: 5/5
Pitt had the early buzz, then Clooney had most of the early awards, but now the race seems to have tilted completely towards after SAG and BAFTA to Dujardin. I would probably vote for Pitt, but it's hard not to go with Dujardin, after carrying a silent film with aplomb.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Seen: 5/5
Plummer has won just about everything, and he's a legendary vet. Seems like he can't lose. The only challenger I see is Sydow, who is a slightly older legendary vet without an award. I'd probably go with Plummer, who was fantastic as an elderly man who finally comes out of the closet.
Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis in "The Help"
Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"
Seen 5/5
This comes down to Davis vs Streep. Viola Davis has won most everything, but Streep does have a few victories AND she hasn't win in about 30 years. Davis will pull out a squeaker. My choice would be Michelle Williams who WAS Marilyn Monroe.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer in "The Help"
Seen 5/5
Spencer appears to take this one in a walk. I actually think that Chastain was the more deserving winner from the same film (not to mention the year in total that she had!)
Animated Feature Film
"A Cat in Paris" Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
"Chico & Rita" Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
"Kung Fu Panda 2" Jennifer Yuh Nelson
"Puss in Boots" Chris Miller
"Rango" Gore Verbinski
Seen 4/5
Rango seems way far in front after Tintin's snub. The underseen (and heartbreaking) Chico and Rita would be my selection.
Art Direction
"The Artist" Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
"Hugo" Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"Midnight in Paris" Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
"War Horse" Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Seen: 5/5
As deserving as all of these are, from Hogwarts to trench warfare, Hugo is just a masterpiece of art direction. I would be stunned if it lost. Dante Ferretti is a god.
Cinematography
"The Artist" Guillaume Schiffman
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Jeff Cronenweth
"Hugo" Robert Richardson
"The Tree of Life" Emmanuel Lubezki
"War Horse" Janusz Kaminski
Seen: 5/5
Hard category because TOL is so polarizing, people may not wanna reward it anywhere. But Lubezki totally out did himself, creating one of the most beautiful images ever put on film.
Costume Design
"Anonymous" Lisy Christl
"The Artist" Mark Bridges
"Hugo" Sandy Powell
"Jane Eyre" Michael O'Connor
"W.E." Arianne Phillips
Seen: 4/5
What era does the Academy go with? I keep on going back and forth on this, but I think I have settled for the 1920's period of The Artist.
Documentary (Feature)
"Hell and Back Again" Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
"If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" Marshall Curry and Sam Pullman
"Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Pina" Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
"Undefeated" TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas
Seen: 3/5
These categories are always so hard to call. I think I am gonna go with the only feel good one of the bunch, Of the ones I have seen, Id probably go with Tree Falls. Haven't seen PL3, but the first two were great, and the series led to the release of the West Memphis 3 --- so I could see that winning as well. Basically, I have no clue.
Documentary (Short Subject)
"The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement" Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
"God Is the Bigger Elvis" Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
"Incident in New Baghdad"James Spione
"Saving Face" Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
"The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen
Seen: 4/5
I think Saving Face was the most moving that I saw (and would be my choice). Tsunami was more artful, and I can see AMPAS going for it. Plus, I was interviewed for by Japanese TV crew in the lobby after I saw it. :lol Wouldn't be surprised to see any of the others win either to be honest.
Film Editing
"The Artist" Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
"The Descendants" Kevin Tent
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
"Hugo" Thelma Schoonmaker
"Moneyball" Christopher Tellefsen
Seen 5/5
Editing usually goes to Best Picture unless a flashy film is in the mix.
Foreign Language Film
"Bullhead" Belgium
"Footnote" Israel
"In Darkness" Poland
"Monsieur Lazhar" Canada
"A Separation" Iran
Seen: 2/5
Smart money is on the Iranian film, given its accolades. I am going with the Holocaust film, because that's what the Academy usually does. I am really just going with my guy, having seen so few of them. Not to mention, AMPAS throws a lot of curveballs in this category.
Makeup
"Albert Nobbs" Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
"The Iron Lady" Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
Seen: 3/3
Just have a feeling they'll go with the medium flashy IL over the least noticeable AN and the very flashy HP.
Music (Original Score)
"The Adventures of Tintin" John Williams
"The Artist" Ludovic Bource
"Hugo" Howard Shore
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Alberto Iglesias
"War Horse" John Williams
Seen: 5/5
Silent films are carried by their scores. Easy winner. Would love to see Williams win again before he passes away or retires though.
Music (Original Song)
"Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio" from "Rio" Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett
Seen: 0/2 (though I have listened to both of them off youtube!)
Everyone has a 50/50 shot here!
Short Film (Animated)
"Dimanche/Sunday" Patrick Doyon
"The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
"La Luna" Enrico Casarosa
"A Morning Stroll" Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
"Wild Life" Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
Seen: 5/5
One of the weaker sets of animated shorts that I can remember Going with my favorite of the bunch.
Short Film (Live Action)
"Pentecost" Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane
"Raju" Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
"The Shore" Terry George and Oorlagh George
"Time Freak" Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
"Tuba Atlantic" Hallvar Witzø
Seen: 5/5
In direct opposition to the Animateds, this was one of the stronger years for LA Short films. Tuba Atlantic was the richest experience to me, but this is a wide open category.
Sound Editing
"Drive" Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Ren Klyce
"Hugo" Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
"War Horse" Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
Seen: 5/5
War films usually get this award when nominated. I'd be torn between WH and Drive if I were voting.
Sound Mixing
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
"Hugo" Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
"Moneyball" Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
"War Horse" Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson
Seen: 5/5
Expecting a split in the sound categories, which happens about a third of the time.
Visual Effects
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
"Hugo" Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
"Real Steel" Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes" Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier
Seen: 5/5
I'd go with the POTA film, but BP nominees do surprisingly well when nominated in this category.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
"The Descendants" Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
"Hugo" Screenplay by John Logan
"The Ides of March" Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
"Moneyball" Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan
Seen: 5/5
Has all the buzz right now. Wish it were Moneyball, but I have given up the ghost on that one.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
"The Artist" Written by Michel Hazanavicius
"Bridesmaids" Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
"Margin Call" Written by J.C. Chandor
"Midnight in Paris" Written by Woody Allen
"A Separation" Written by Asghar Farhadi
Seen: 5/5
I think AMPAS is dying to give Allen another award. I'd vote for Margin Call.
Best Picture
"The Artist" Thomas Langmann, Producer
"The Descendants" Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, Producers
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close" Scott Rudin, Producer
"The Help" Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, Producers
"Hugo" Graham King and Martin Scorsese, Producers
"Midnight in Paris" Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, Producers
"Moneyball" Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, Producers
"The Tree of Life" Nominees to be determined
"War Horse" Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, Producers
Seen: 9/9
The Artist seems to be to 800 pound gorilla in this race, as it has won nearly everything preceding Oscar itself. It'll be a deserving winner, even if not my choice.
Directing
"The Artist" Michel Hazanavicius
"The Descendants" Alexander Payne
"Hugo" Martin Scorsese
"Midnight in Paris" Woody Allen
"The Tree of Life" Terrence Malick
Seen: 5/5
Malick is my pick, but that'll never happen. Hazanavicius will get the award, and it's hard to argue. Making a movie as creatively as he did is quite a marvel.
Actor in a Leading Role
Demián Bichir in "A Better Life"
George Clooney in "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"
Gary Oldman in "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy"
Brad Pitt in "Moneyball"
Seen: 5/5
Pitt had the early buzz, then Clooney had most of the early awards, but now the race seems to have tilted completely towards after SAG and BAFTA to Dujardin. I would probably vote for Pitt, but it's hard not to go with Dujardin, after carrying a silent film with aplomb.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Kenneth Branagh in "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill in "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte in "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"
Max von Sydow in "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"
Seen: 5/5
Plummer has won just about everything, and he's a legendary vet. Seems like he can't lose. The only challenger I see is Sydow, who is a slightly older legendary vet without an award. I'd probably go with Plummer, who was fantastic as an elderly man who finally comes out of the closet.
Actress in a Leading Role
Glenn Close in "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis in "The Help"
Rooney Mara in "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn"
Seen 5/5
This comes down to Davis vs Streep. Viola Davis has won most everything, but Streep does have a few victories AND she hasn't win in about 30 years. Davis will pull out a squeaker. My choice would be Michelle Williams who WAS Marilyn Monroe.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Bérénice Bejo in "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain in "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy in "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer in "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer in "The Help"
Seen 5/5
Spencer appears to take this one in a walk. I actually think that Chastain was the more deserving winner from the same film (not to mention the year in total that she had!)
Animated Feature Film
"A Cat in Paris" Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
"Chico & Rita" Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
"Kung Fu Panda 2" Jennifer Yuh Nelson
"Puss in Boots" Chris Miller
"Rango" Gore Verbinski
Seen 4/5
Rango seems way far in front after Tintin's snub. The underseen (and heartbreaking) Chico and Rita would be my selection.
Art Direction
"The Artist" Production Design: Laurence Bennett; Set Decoration: Robert Gould
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Production Design: Stuart Craig; Set Decoration: Stephenie McMillan
"Hugo" Production Design: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"Midnight in Paris" Production Design: Anne Seibel; Set Decoration: Hélène Dubreuil
"War Horse" Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Lee Sandales
Seen: 5/5
As deserving as all of these are, from Hogwarts to trench warfare, Hugo is just a masterpiece of art direction. I would be stunned if it lost. Dante Ferretti is a god.
Cinematography
"The Artist" Guillaume Schiffman
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Jeff Cronenweth
"Hugo" Robert Richardson
"The Tree of Life" Emmanuel Lubezki
"War Horse" Janusz Kaminski
Seen: 5/5
Hard category because TOL is so polarizing, people may not wanna reward it anywhere. But Lubezki totally out did himself, creating one of the most beautiful images ever put on film.
Costume Design
"Anonymous" Lisy Christl
"The Artist" Mark Bridges
"Hugo" Sandy Powell
"Jane Eyre" Michael O'Connor
"W.E." Arianne Phillips
Seen: 4/5
What era does the Academy go with? I keep on going back and forth on this, but I think I have settled for the 1920's period of The Artist.
Documentary (Feature)
"Hell and Back Again" Danfung Dennis and Mike Lerner
"If a Tree Falls: A Story of the Earth Liberation Front" Marshall Curry and Sam Pullman
"Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory" Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Pina" Wim Wenders and Gian-Piero Ringel
"Undefeated" TJ Martin, Dan Lindsay and Richard Middlemas
Seen: 3/5
These categories are always so hard to call. I think I am gonna go with the only feel good one of the bunch, Of the ones I have seen, Id probably go with Tree Falls. Haven't seen PL3, but the first two were great, and the series led to the release of the West Memphis 3 --- so I could see that winning as well. Basically, I have no clue.
Documentary (Short Subject)
"The Barber of Birmingham: Foot Soldier of the Civil Rights Movement" Robin Fryday and Gail Dolgin
"God Is the Bigger Elvis" Rebecca Cammisa and Julie Anderson
"Incident in New Baghdad"James Spione
"Saving Face" Daniel Junge and Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy
"The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom" Lucy Walker and Kira Carstensen
Seen: 4/5
I think Saving Face was the most moving that I saw (and would be my choice). Tsunami was more artful, and I can see AMPAS going for it. Plus, I was interviewed for by Japanese TV crew in the lobby after I saw it. :lol Wouldn't be surprised to see any of the others win either to be honest.
Film Editing
"The Artist" Anne-Sophie Bion and Michel Hazanavicius
"The Descendants" Kevin Tent
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
"Hugo" Thelma Schoonmaker
"Moneyball" Christopher Tellefsen
Seen 5/5
Editing usually goes to Best Picture unless a flashy film is in the mix.
Foreign Language Film
"Bullhead" Belgium
"Footnote" Israel
"In Darkness" Poland
"Monsieur Lazhar" Canada
"A Separation" Iran
Seen: 2/5
Smart money is on the Iranian film, given its accolades. I am going with the Holocaust film, because that's what the Academy usually does. I am really just going with my guy, having seen so few of them. Not to mention, AMPAS throws a lot of curveballs in this category.
Makeup
"Albert Nobbs" Martial Corneville, Lynn Johnston and Matthew W. Mungle
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
"The Iron Lady" Mark Coulier and J. Roy Helland
Seen: 3/3
Just have a feeling they'll go with the medium flashy IL over the least noticeable AN and the very flashy HP.
Music (Original Score)
"The Adventures of Tintin" John Williams
"The Artist" Ludovic Bource
"Hugo" Howard Shore
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Alberto Iglesias
"War Horse" John Williams
Seen: 5/5
Silent films are carried by their scores. Easy winner. Would love to see Williams win again before he passes away or retires though.
Music (Original Song)
"Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets" Music and Lyric by Bret McKenzie
"Real in Rio" from "Rio" Music by Sergio Mendes and Carlinhos Brown Lyric by Siedah Garrett
Seen: 0/2 (though I have listened to both of them off youtube!)
Everyone has a 50/50 shot here!
Short Film (Animated)
"Dimanche/Sunday" Patrick Doyon
"The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore" William Joyce and Brandon Oldenburg
"La Luna" Enrico Casarosa
"A Morning Stroll" Grant Orchard and Sue Goffe
"Wild Life" Amanda Forbis and Wendy Tilby
Seen: 5/5
One of the weaker sets of animated shorts that I can remember Going with my favorite of the bunch.
Short Film (Live Action)
"Pentecost" Peter McDonald and Eimear O'Kane
"Raju" Max Zähle and Stefan Gieren
"The Shore" Terry George and Oorlagh George
"Time Freak" Andrew Bowler and Gigi Causey
"Tuba Atlantic" Hallvar Witzø
Seen: 5/5
In direct opposition to the Animateds, this was one of the stronger years for LA Short films. Tuba Atlantic was the richest experience to me, but this is a wide open category.
Sound Editing
"Drive" Lon Bender and Victor Ray Ennis
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" Ren Klyce
"Hugo" Philip Stockton and Eugene Gearty
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl
"War Horse" Richard Hymns and Gary Rydstrom
Seen: 5/5
War films usually get this award when nominated. I'd be torn between WH and Drive if I were voting.
Sound Mixing
"The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Bo Persson
"Hugo" Tom Fleischman and John Midgley
"Moneyball" Deb Adair, Ron Bochar, Dave Giammarco and Ed Novick
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Greg P. Russell, Gary Summers, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Peter J. Devlin
"War Horse" Gary Rydstrom, Andy Nelson, Tom Johnson and Stuart Wilson
Seen: 5/5
Expecting a split in the sound categories, which happens about a third of the time.
Visual Effects
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2" Tim Burke, David Vickery, Greg Butler and John Richardson
"Hugo" Rob Legato, Joss Williams, Ben Grossman and Alex Henning
"Real Steel" Erik Nash, John Rosengrant, Dan Taylor and Swen Gillberg
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes" Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, R. Christopher White and Daniel Barrett
"Transformers: Dark of the Moon" Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Matthew Butler and John Frazier
Seen: 5/5
I'd go with the POTA film, but BP nominees do surprisingly well when nominated in this category.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
"The Descendants" Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
"Hugo" Screenplay by John Logan
"The Ides of March" Screenplay by George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
"Moneyball" Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan
Seen: 5/5
Has all the buzz right now. Wish it were Moneyball, but I have given up the ghost on that one.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
"The Artist" Written by Michel Hazanavicius
"Bridesmaids" Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
"Margin Call" Written by J.C. Chandor
"Midnight in Paris" Written by Woody Allen
"A Separation" Written by Asghar Farhadi
Seen: 5/5
I think AMPAS is dying to give Allen another award. I'd vote for Margin Call.