NFL Pick 'em 2011: Week 5

[Dragon]

We have the first round of byes this week - only thirteen games this time. There are some intriguing matchups here, though none involving the cream of the NFL (unless we can put Detroit and Chicago in that category!) Instead, we get a road test for Andy Dalton's young Bengals, a tilt between the resurgent Bills and the disappointing Eagles, a duel between the beleaguered Steelers and a reinvented Titans offense, another "can these guys catch a break?" match-up for the Colts against the Chiefs.

Sun, Oct 9
NO @ CAR
KC @ IND
PHI @ BUF
SEA @ NYG
CIN @ JAX
TEN @ PIT
OAK @ HOU
ARI @ MIN

TB @ SF
NYJ @ NE
SD @ DEN
GB @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET

Byes: Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Dolphins, Rams, Redskins


Survivor Pool

Dragon: ARI, DET, SD, ATL
Liam Jinn: SF, DAL, PIT, GB
Jedi Master Carr: GB, PIT, TB
jjwr: HOU, BAL, CHI
Kyran O'Hurn: BUF, TEN, NO
Lykaios: PIT, SD, TB
Mu Satach: DET, SD, GB
Rutabaga: GB, SD, NO
Ryan Pode: GB, TEN, TB
Yog: DEN, PIT, SD, GB
Park Kraken: TB, PHI, HOU, JAX

[Park Kraken]

Sun, Oct 9
NO (W) @ CAR
KC @ IND (W)
PHI @ BUF (W)
SEA @ NYG (W)
CIN (W) @ JAX
TEN (W) @ PIT
OAK @ HOU (W)
ARI @ MIN (W)

TB (W) @ SF
NYJ @ NE (W)
SD (W) @ DEN
GB (W) @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET (W)

Seppuku Streak Pick: CAR

[Morgan Evanar]

Sun, Oct 9
NO @ CAR - Carolina won't keep up.
KC @ IND - ewwwwwwwwww.
PHI @ BUF - I'm nervous about this game. Philly has been underperforming and the Bills looked flat against the Bungles.
SEA @ NYG - Seattle is real bad.
CIN @ JAX - *spins in a circle and points*
TEN @ PIT - Pittsburgh should be hungry.
OAK @HOU - The King is Dead, Long Live the Raider King!
ARI @ MIN - Arizona pulls out a close one. I think. Another coinflip.

TB @ SF - Tampa Bay has been pulling out squeakers but SF wins? This is a tough week to pick.
NYJ @ NE - Mangold might not play but it won't matter. The Evil Genius will gameplan this to victory, but NE's weak secondary will make Sanchez look tolerable again.
SD @ DEN - Denver is bad.
GB @ ATL - The Falcons are better at home but not enough to stand up to the Aaron Rodgers onslaught.

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET - Detroit's strengths go against Chicago's weaknesses nicely. Suh will probably kill Cutler :( Da Bear's linebackers can't help against Megatron.

[Kyran O'Hurn]

What a bunch of dog games this week.

Sun, Oct 9
NO W @ CAR
KC @ IND W - Going with Indy since it's probably their best chance at a win.
PHI @ BUF W
SEA @ NYG W
CIN W @ JAX
TEN @ PIT W
OAK @ HOU W
ARI @ MIN W

TB @ SF W
NYJ @ NE W
SD W @ DEN
GB W @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET W

Survivor SD

[Morgan Evanar]

This is a difficult week to pick. There are a lot of garbage games against garbage teams but that makes it trickier. Who's crappier is kind of the question?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Sun, Oct 9
W NO @ CAR
W KC @ IND
W PHI @ BUF
SEA @ NYG W
CIN @ JAX W
TEN @ PIT W
OAK @ HOU W
W ARI @ MIN

TB @ SF W
NYJ @ NE W
W SD @ DEN
W GB @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET W

Survivor pick NYG.

[Miranda Tarkin]

Sun, Oct 9
NO (W) @ CAR
KC (W) @ IND
PHI @ BUF (W)
SEA @ NYG (W)
CIN (W) @ JAX
TEN (W) @ PIT
OAK @ HOU (W)
ARI (W) @ MIN

TB (W) @ SF
NYJ @ NE (W)
SD (W) @ DEN
GB (W) @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI (W) @ DET <--- I am like a Cubs fan. Never give up XD

[Dragon]

Sun, Oct 9
NO WIN @ CAR - As we've seen so far, the key to beating Cam Newton is to let him throw for over 370 yards.
KC @ IND WIN - Look, it's got to happen sometime.
PHI @ BUF WIN - I'm through with you, Philadelphia.
SEA @ NYG WIN - The Giants' pass rush is enough to win this one.
CIN WIN @ JAX - To listen to sports radio in Cincinnati, you'd think the Bengals clinched the Super Bowl last week.
TEN @ PIT WIN - Come on, guys, you have to figure this line thing out.
OAK @ HOU WIN - It's scary that Oakland may be bringing a more potent offense to Houston than Pittsburgh did.
ARI WIN @ MIN - The Vikings seem to be one of those teams that just finds ways to lose.

TB WIN @ SF - San Francisco confuses me this year, but the Bucs have a better QB, RB, and defense.
NYJ @ NE WIN - The Jets just looked awful against the Ravens Sunday night.
SD WIN @ DEN - I'm sorry, Denver, even Tim Tebow can't save this team.
GB WIN @ ATL - The mercy rule should have been invoked when we last saw this matchup - in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. If the Falcons can't get up for that...

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET WIN - And tigers. Oh my.


Survivor Pick: Saints

[Nathanial K'cansce]

Sun, Oct 9
(W) NO @ CAR
KC @ IND (W)
PHI @ BUF (W)
SEA @ NYG (W)
(W) CIN @ JAX
(W) TEN @ PIT
OAK @ HOU (W)
(W) ARI @ MIN

TB @ SF (W)
NYJ @ NE (W)
(W) SD @ DEN
(W) GB @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET (W)

[Ryan Pode]

Sun, Oct 9
NO Win @ CAR
KC @ IND Win
PHI @ BUF Win
SEA @ NYG Win
CIN @ JAX Win
TEN Win @ PIT
OAK @ HOU Win
ARI Win @ MIN

TB @ SF Win
NYJ Win @ NE
SD Win @ DEN
GB @ ATL Win

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET Win

Survivor: NYG

[Mu Satach]

Sun, Oct 9
NO W @ CAR
KC @ IND W
PHI @ BUF W
SEA @ NYG W
CIN W @ JAX
TEN @ PIT W
OAK W @ HOU
ARI W @ MIN

TB W @ SF
NYJ @ NE W
SD W @ DEN
GB W @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET W

Survivor ARI

[Morgan Evanar]

I want to change my Oakland vs Houston pick but I'm not sure the spectre of Al Davis can overcome Arian Foster.

[Rutabaga]

Sun, Oct 9
NO WIN @ CAR
KC @ IND WIN They've gotta win one sometime, don't they?
PHI @ BUF WIN
SEA @ NYG WIN
CIN WIN @ JAX eenie meenie minie mo....
TEN @ PIT WIN
OAK @ HOU WIN home field advantage goes to the Texans
ARI WIN @ MIN eenie meenie minie mo part 2

TB @ SF WIN could be a tough one but going with my Niners
NYJ @ NE WIN
SD WIN @ DEN
GB WIN @ ATL I feel sorry for the Falcons, this is going to be gory

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET WIN Lions eat Bears, nom nom nom

Survivor pick: NYG


Part of me does wonder if the Raiders will have an emotional push behind their efforts tomorrow due to the death of Al Davis, but it could also affect them in the other direction. I'm sticking with Houston.

As it is, I've always hated Al Davis, so I shed no tears for him personally. But of course my sympathies go out to his family and friends.

[Liam Jinn]

Sun, Oct 9
NO (W) @ CAR
KC @ IND (W)
PHI @ BUF (W)
SEA @ NYG (W)
CIN @ JAX (W)
TEN @ PIT (W)
OAK (W) @ HOU
ARI (W) @ MIN

TB (W) @ SF
NYJ @ NE (W)
SD (W) @ DEN
GB (W) @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET (W)

Survivor Pick - Bills... it's what the beer tells me to do

[Yog]

Sun, Oct 9
NO (W) @ CAR
KC @ IND (W)
PHI @ BUF (W)
SEA @ NYG (W)
CIN (W) @ JAX
TEN @ PIT (W)
OAK @ HOU (W)
ARI (W) @ MIN

TB (W) @ SF
NYJ @ NE (W)
SD (W) @ DEN
GB (W) @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET (W)

Survivor: New York Giants

[Lykaios]

Saints
Colts
Bills
Giants
Bengals
Titans
Texans
Vikes
Bucs
Pats
Bolts
Pack
Lions

Survivor: Giants

[Figrin D'an]

Sun, Oct 9
NO (W) @ CAR
KC @ IND (W)
PHI (W) @ BUF - Make or break game of the first half of the season for Philly. They can either turn their season around, or send it into a complete tailspin.
SEA @ NYG (W)
CIN (W) @ JAX
TEN (W) @ PIT
OAK (W) @ HOU - I think the Raiders play inspired, and this is just the type of game that Houston has been prone to lose.
ARI (W) @ MIN

TB @ SF (W)
NYJ @ NE (W)
SD (W) @ DEN
GB (W) @ ATL - Don't care what anyone says, don't care that Atlanta has struggled so far this season... this game worries me.

Mon, Oct 10
CHI @ DET (W) - Lions win, but I think this is closer than most people will expect.

[jjwr]

Sun, Oct 9
NO (W) @ CAR
KC @ IND (W)
PHI (W) @ BUF
SEA @ NYG (W)
CIN @ JAX (W)
TEN (W) @ PIT
OAK (W) @ HOU
ARI (W) @ MIN

TB @ SF (W)
NYJ @ NE (W)
SD (W) @ DEN
GB (W) @ ATL

Mon, Oct 10
CHI (W) @ DET

Survivor : New Orleans

[Rutabaga]

Damn, damn, damn, I'm stuck with Oakland playing Houston and having to listen to my Raider fan neighbor hoot and holler. I'd rather be watching Philly and Buffalo. :shakefist

[Nathanial K'cansce]

Damn, damn, damn, I'm stuck with Oakland playing Houston and having to listen to my Raider fan neighbor hoot and holler. I'd rather be watching Philly and Buffalo. :shakefist

Same. Minus no one is hooting or hollering, but I have... Seattle/Giants and Pit/Tenn. :x

[Park Kraken]

CAR, SEA, and PIT games are all somewhat suprising to me so far today.

[Morgan Evanar]

Watching the Eagles fail is absolutely hilarious.

[Rutabaga]

Damn, damn, damn, I'm stuck with Oakland playing Houston and having to listen to my Raider fan neighbor hoot and holler. I'd rather be watching Philly and Buffalo. :shakefist

Same. Minus no one is hooting or hollering, but I have... Seattle/Giants and Pit/Tenn. :x

At least the hooting and hollering stopped after a while. And I now have an ulcer thanks to the ending of that damn game. :x

Now I get to flip back and forth between the Chargers and Niners games. It's like feast or famine for me today. :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

Glad to see the Chiefs have now won 2 straight. Not sure if they can make the playoffs, they would need to win their next four games with their tough schedule coming up.

[Morgan Evanar]

Early games.
NO - Carolina couldn't keep up.
KC - ewwwwwwwwww.
BUF - Buffalo was served turnovers and ate them. Delicious apple turnovers.
SEA @ NYG - Seattle is real bad, but the Giants are real inconsistent.
CIN - heh, dumb luck.
PIT - Wow, was not expecting a stomping.
OAK - The King is Dead, Long Live the Raider King!
ARI @ MIN - A. Peterson 29 Rush, 122 yds 3 TDs. The Vikings let Peterson run and win. What a surprise. :rolleyes

5/7

SF - A spanking
NE - The Evil Genius gameplanned to victory. NE's weak secondary made Sanchez look tolerable again. Welp.
SD - Denver is bad. The Chargers continue to be shaky.
GB - Ayup.

4/4!

[Figrin D'an]

Philly is done. They may claw back to 9-7 or so by the end of the season if they actually figure out how to defend the pass, but that won't be enough to make the playoffs. That entire town is going to want Andy Reid's head on a pike if they do indeed miss the postseason.

I think there's a decent chance that Jim Caldwell gets fired by the Colts at the end of the season. It should be Bill Pollian getting the axe because of his poor personnel decisions that were masked by Manning's amazingly consistent performances, but Caldwell will be the fall guy (not that he's completely innocent... he's not a good in-game coach at all.)

Tampa looks like they've regressed a lot. Conversely, the Niners look pretty good. They should win the NFC West, and if that happens, Jim Harbaugh will be Coach of the Year.

I think Steeler fans had better get used to the roller coaster ride they've had thus far... I think it's going to be like this all season for them.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The Niners are a huge surprise, probably rank up there with Buffalo and Detroit. New England out played the Jets. Although, I think the Jets look worse overall this year.

[Dragon]

I think Steeler fans had better get used to the roller coaster ride they've had thus far... I think it's going to be like this all season for them.

We've been on it before. See Tommy Maddox, 2004.

One game does not a season make, but there's a lot to feel good about from this performance - stifling run defense, a legitimate pass rush, Ben getting the ball out more quickly, big holes in the running game, effective play action, big plays from old standards like Polamalu, Farrior, and Ward... Not to mention a solid performance from the newly re-signed left tackle Max Starks, who exceeded expectations in his first start after only three practices.

The Steelers have two fairly soft matchups coming up with the Jaguars at home and a road trip to Arizona, then a couple more big tests facing the Patriots and Ravens at home. I think that's where we'll find out if this team is for real.

[Morgan Evanar]

Detroit isn't that big a surprise if you've been paying attention for the past few seasons. The only reason they didn't do better last year is that Stafford was hurt. They've been drafting smartly for a bit now.

Jay Cutler's gonna die to Suh and Fairley.

The Niners are a giant surprise, and Buffalo is a huge surprise too. Ryan Fitzpatrick is good.

[Kyran O'Hurn]

I think Buffalo is the biggest surprise of the season.

As a Niners fan I'll admit I was not expecting this out of the team so far, but really all the pieces have been in place for a couple years, it's just not gelled and everyone (including myself) figured it was cause Smith just couldn't perform.

I won't say that they are going to win the Super Bowl or anything, but the defense is living up to their talent, and if you can game plan where Gore get's his touches and yards then Smith really doesn't have to do much. The fact that he has actually been throwing the ball fairly well is just a bonus.

[Morgan Evanar]

I agree, the Niners have underperformed for the past 3 years or so. I just wasn't expecting them to play like this until the second half of the season, especially given the lockout. San Fran has a very favorable schedule in a weak division (maybe the weakest). The only worrisome games ahead are Detroit, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

[Figrin D'an]

Best game that Green Bay has played so far this season, hands down.

Why?

Both starting tackles out, get behind by 14 points right off the bat, hostile road environment... no one panics, defense steps up and gets stops in critical moments, offense adjusts in the second half, McCarthy hits all the right notes with the play calling, Rodgers hits 12 different receivers throughout the game... and they dominate the second half and win going away.

The Packers didn't blink in the face of adversity. That's what champions do. Very impressed as a fan.

[Nathanial K'cansce]

As a Buf fan, I'm still wary. In '08, we started 5-2, ended the season 7-9.

But, I'm enjoying the train ride thus far! I'm wary, but still a Billiever!

[Morgan Evanar]

Best game that Green Bay has played so far this season, hands down.

Why?

Both starting tackles out, get behind by 14 points right off the bat, hostile road environment... no one panics, defense steps up and gets stops in critical moments, offense adjusts in the second half, McCarthy hits all the right notes with the play calling, Rodgers hits 12 different receivers throughout the game... and they dominate the second half and win going away.

The Packers didn't blink in the face of adversity. That's what champions do. Very impressed as a fan.Rodgers has been the paragon of consistency. He might be the best QB to watch since Manning is out, as someone who isn't a fan of the Packers. Rodgers throws the best ball of any QB in the NFL. In my opinion, he's a lot like Dan Marino, but way more mobile.

Great adjustments by Green Bay, but they really need some of their D starters back, and it wouldn't hurt to have a complete O-line either. The only two games on their schedule I would really worry about at all are Detroit, although it's possible AP could run down their throats.

Snack, you can probably count Miami for two wins. The rest of the games are winnable, except maybe New England at home. The takeaways by the Bills were super impressive. Very 09 Saints-like. It was a fun game to watch.

[Dragon]

Is anyone up on what's going on in Denver? I don't have a strong opinion on Tim Tebow; I think he's been the focus of some unjustified negativity and second-string favoritism through no fault of his own. I thought the stories about fans buying billboards to implore John Fox to put him in were just as ridiculous as the inexplicably mean-spirited editorials about his talents and attitude. And I thought the reason he'd been demoted to third-string below Brady Quinn was that the coaches genuinely thought he was the third-best quarterback on the roster.

So when Kyle Orton came out stinking against the Chargers, why the heck did Fox go to Tebow and not Quinn? Is he afraid of the crowd, or did he name Tebow the third-stringer just to make a statement/out of spite? Was Quinn really the fourth-string quarterback all along?

No mistake, Tebow came in and provided a spark for the Broncos. His stats were hardly awe-inspiring (4/10 for 79 yards), but he ran for one touchdown, threw for another, and took the Broncos within thirty yards of a winning score, and the crowd was chanting his name even after his last-second pass fell incomplete in the endzone. No matter what Fox, Elway, or common sense has to say, the story for those fans will be that Tebow took them to the brink of victory and surely would have won if he had been given his chance a little earlier. Who starts for the Broncos at Miami after their bye week? What will the coaches tell Brady Quinn about his spot on the depth chart? Is there any way that the Denver coaching staff comes out of this looking like they have the slightest bit of control over their team, or the slimmest idea of what they're doing?

[Dragon]

And on to the week's tally! Kyran O'Hurn now holds the lead all by his lonesome with an impressive winning percentage of .753. Meanwhile, the ranks of the survivor pool were pretty much annihilated by the Giants' surprising loss to the Seahawks. If you fell off this week, you can still keep playing. I've divided the survivor pool up by longest streak: Liam Jinn and I are still in the lead with 5, with jjwr and Kyran O'Hurn still holding an unbesmirched 4. I'm really interested to see who holds out longer - the unbeatens or Park Kraken's Seppuku streak.

On to the tallies. Let me know if I screwed up.

Week 5 Tally
Morgan Evanar: 11-2
Kyran O'Hurn: 10-3
Mu Satach: 9-4
Rutabaga: 9-4
Dragon: 8-5
Figrin D'an: 8-5
Jedi Master Carr: 8-5
Liam Jinn: 8-5
Lykaios: 8-5
Nathanial K'cansce: 8-5
Park Kraken: 8-5
Yog: 8-5
jjwr: 7-6
Miranda Tarkin: 7-6
Ryan Pode: 5-8
Aurelias Kazaar: 4-9 (did not pick)


Total Tally

1. Kyran O'Hurn: 58-19

2. Morgan Evanar: 56-21
3. Rutabaga: 55-22
3. jjwr: 55-22
5. Yog: 53-24
6. Dragon: 52-25
6. Park Kraken: 52-25
8. Liam Jinn: 51-26
8. Nathanial K'cansce: 51-26
10. Figrin D'an: 50-27
10. Ryan Pode: 50-27
12. Jedi Master Carr: 48-29
12. Miranda Tarkin: 48-29
14. Aurelias Kazaar: 44-33
14. Mu Satach: 44-33
16. Lykaios: 43-34


Survivor Pool

5
Dragon: ARI, DET, SD, ATL, NO
Liam Jinn: SF, DAL, PIT, GB, BUF

4
jjwr: HOU, BAL, CHI, NO
Kyran O'Hurn: BUF, TEN, NO, SD

3
Jedi Master Carr: GB, PIT, TB, NYG
Lykaios: PIT, SD, TB, NYG
Mu Satach: DET, SD, GB, ARI
Rutabaga: GB, SD, NO, NYG
Ryan Pode: GB, TEN, TB, NYG
Yog: DEN, PIT, SD, GB, NYG

Seppuku x5 combo!
Park Kraken: TB, PHI, HOU, JAX, CAR