2011 Hurricane Season

[Park Kraken]

Starting the thread a little late this year, we've already blown through Alicia, Bret, and Cindy, all three Tropical Storms, the first mentioned hitting Mexico, the latter two recurving out into the Atlantic before dissipating. But today should mark the start of Tropical Storm Don, forming right off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and slated to (probably) head towards the Gulf Coast along Texas to Mexico, with this system having the most decent conditions thus far to become the season's first hurricane.

[CMJ]

Surprisingly, most of the models aren't forecasting much strengthening for the time being. Definitely one to keep an eye on though. A lot of warm water between it and landfall.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Too much shear to allow Don to really get going - but you can see the way it's been trying that anything with favourable conditions is going to blow up big time if it gets into the Gulf.

Invest 91L is already at 30% chance and is basically in perfect conditions to spin up. When Emily turns up she'll be a doozy

[Morgan Evanar]

It looks like another August + season because of all the early shear we've had.

I don't like August + seasons.

[Park Kraken]

As far as updates go, Don pretty much fizzled out as it made landfall right at Brownsville, TX. Most rain recorded was at Brownsville and it was at 0.66", which is like the last drop in a canteen in the middle of the Sahara for what Texas needs right now.

91L is at 100% Chance for development this morning, expected to upgraded when Hurricane Hunters reach it this afternoon, either to TD#5 or TS Emily.

[Park Kraken]

This has been an odd year in the Atlantic Hurricane Season so far. There have been eight Tropical Storms, of which none have strengthened into Hurricanes before dissipating, but the ninth and newest one shows some potential. Irene has formed just to the east of the Winward Islands, is forecasted to hit the Dominican Republic as a minimal hurricane, before trekking over and paying Miami a visit in about 6-7 days. This is a very large system, so there will be a very significant rainfall threat to the Dominican Republic/Haiti when this system passes over Hispanola.

[Park Kraken]

Updated Track on Irene has it going over more water then land now, and with favoriable conditions, is expected to strengthen into a minimal Category 2 hurricane before striking the SE Florida coast somewhere between the Keys and Fort Lauderdale.

[CMJ]

Irene looks like she's bombing out right now. One of those islands is gonna get raked hard soon.

[Jedi Master Carr]

we will have to see where it goes. If it heads more to the west in the gulf it could strength.

[Morgan Evanar]

we will have to see where it goes. If it heads more to the west in the gulf it could strength. It's plenty hot enough Atlantic side, especially in the Bahamas and the Gulf Stream. The surf temperature for Florida is in the high 80s. If conditions continue to be favorable it will strengthen. The biggest question is how far inland it's going to go into Hispaniola.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it really depends on if hits those mountains. Right now they are saying it will miss them and probably stay a Cat 1 and either hit Florida or go farther up the coast.

[CMJ]

The entire Atlantic basin has been lucky this summer. There have been eight named storms, but all of them have been rather weak, and haven''t caused a whole lot of trouble for anyone yet.

This one.....looks like it could be a real player though. The Bahamas and all of the southeast coast needs to keep an eye on her. Some of the latest models are troubling.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah it is getting stronger now, and I will have to be concerned now since I am in SC at the moment, although in the middle of the state. I am having to travel to a new job on Sunday, I am hoping it doesn't go that far inland.

[Morgan Evanar]

It looks Carolina bound right now, but it's far enough out where it's not a sure thing at all. Still, CAT3s are nasty nasty nasty storms and I wouldn't wish it on almost anyone.

[Park Kraken]

Winds up to 110 MPH, might be upped to 115+ in the next advisory as recon is finding at least 5 MB lower of pressure in the storm right now. Wouldn't be suprised if current trends continue for Irene to become a Cat 4 later today. Intensity forecasts are normally a little conservative when it comes to more powerful hurricanes.

Current forecasts place it on the outer edges of the Carolinas, which would mainly be a rain and storm surge impact. The big question right now is how strong would it be when (if) it hits New England, right now it's forecast to go right up Providence, RI (just like the '38 hurricane, which was a Cat 2 when it hit and killed 600). Of course, the track keeps shifting east, so maybe it'll go out to sea entirely.

[CMJ]

The Long Island Express was a Category 3 at initial landfall in 1938.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It has been a long time since the north east was hit by a major hurricane. I think the last significant one it was a cat 1 I think, was in the the 50s.

[CMJ]

It has been a long time since the north east was hit by a major hurricane. I think the last significant one it was a cat 1 I think, was in the the 50s.

Maybe Bob in 1991. The was a Category 2...caused quite a bit of damage.

But their last major hit was a long time ago.

[Park Kraken]

Irene is continuing to pound the Bahamas as she wobbles her way generally toward the NW. On another note, Invest 90L to the SW of the Cape Verde Islands is now up to 60% chance for development as it continues to organize.

EDIT: Adding some links to watch Irene;

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

The first is Miami Long Range Doppler Radar, the second is GOES Atlantic Floater 2, which has been keeping track of Irene. The second link can view Irene in a number of different type of images.

[CMJ]

I have a feeling the images out of the Bahamas will not be pretty tomorrow.

[Morgan Evanar]

I have a feeling the images out of the Bahamas will not be pretty tomorrow.It's gonna suck, but if anyone is used to being spanked by hurricanes, it's them.

[CMJ]

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[Jedi Master Carr]

Irene looks to provide a double whammy. First hitting the outer banks and then farther up the coast, possibly NYC. NYC has always been one of those doomsday scenarios with hurricanes, especially with the flooding. Even a cat 1 will be devastating to the city.

[CMJ]

Indeed. We'll see how it goes, but the current track looks pretty grim.

[Morgan Evanar]

When it comes to hurricanes, the outer banks of NC are probably one of the few places in America that are prepared as we are in Miami. They can handle a 2 just fine.

DC and NYC/Jersey, on the other hand...

[Park Kraken]

An update to the tropics.

Tropical Storm Katia is way out there right at borderline hurricane strength. If the wind shear abates, she'll grow stronger, and is forecast to do so anyways. To early to tell whether or not she'll affect the US Eastern Seaboard or Bermuda, things could go either way right now.

Tropical Depression 13 is in the Gulf of Mexico, encountering high wind shear from an Upper Level Trough off to its west. Slow strengthing is forecasted, with the Depression expected to strengthed into Tropical Storm Lee/Maria at about any time, with eventual landfall in Louisiana. This system is a large slow moving system, and is expected to remain that way, so interests in Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi are expected to get drenched over the next week and a half or so.

Invest 94L is gaining in organization, with a 60% chance of development. The system already has Tropical Storm force winds, so if it develops any further, it'll go straight to Tropical Storm Lee/Maria, but should only pose a threat to shipping in the North Atlantic.