Oscar Nominations/Predictions/Thoughts

[CMJ]

So, the big night is Sunday. As is usual - I have seen most everything (and still might see one or two more things, but time is getting scarce). So it's time for my annual Predictions/My choice segment. Predicted winners in bold...my preferences listed.


BEST PICTURE
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


Seen all ten nominees. A rather good group as seven made my personal top 10 this past year. The King's Speech has been cleaning up the Industry awards after The Social Network took the lion's share of critical accolades.


MY CHOICE: The Social Network


ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours


Seen four of the nominees (might try and see Biutiful before the ceremony). Franco was amazing and would get my vote for carrying his film by himself for most of the length of it, but Collin Firth has dominated the awards season.



MY CHOICE: James Franco



ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale - The Fighter
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech


Seen all five, and one of the tougher categories for me to pick my favorite. As far as predictions go it's thought to be a battle between Rush and Bale, I give the guy who doesn't have the Oscar the advantage over the respected vet.

MY CHOICE:
Christian Bale


ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine


Bening had the heat early, but then the Portman train started. First with critics, then with industry award, she seems unstoppable. It also happens to be a iconic role, which over shadows the other four (all of whom were fantastic, including what I consider to be Kidman's best ever performance).

MY CHOICE: Natalie Portman



ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom


Melissa Leo is considered the favorite - after winning most of the accolades to this point. However, this is a category rife with upsets historically, so it might be wise to look at others. All of these ladies were great, from Adams playing against type to Steinfeld's first ever role. Weaver stole the show in the final act of her film and Carter was the rock that Firth played against. Tough category for me to pick a favorite.

MY CHOICE: Amy Adams


ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

With Toy Story 3 landing in the BP field, this is an easy one to call. And while TS3 was my favorite of the nominees (the best in the franchise IMHO) - I can't recommend The Illusionist highly enough. Bittersweet gem of a film about trying to seek meaning in a world that changes without you. Thematically not that different from the Toy Story franchise.


MY CHOICE: Toy Story 3



ART DIRECTION
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit


Palaces, cathedrals, 1940's era streets and parks. This screams Oscar bait to me. Not to mention TKS is likely carry many technicals with its BP win. All of the nominees are deserving, and I could see a potential Alice upset if the Academy wants to go and award "over the top" sorta sets that it had.


MY CHOICE: Inception


CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit


A great category, and one I always try to see all 5 (this year being no exception). Roger Deakins is one of the most respected DP's in the biz - and he's lensed a western epic with stunning vista. The fact that he's never won makes his seem like his year. Would not be disappointed with any of these really - the visual flair in Swan would be remembered in many years, Social Network was very creatively filmed, and Nolan's films are always lit wonderfully.


MY CHOICE: True Grit


COSTUME DESIGN
Alice in Wonderland
I Am Love
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit


When in doubt, go with the BP frontrunner. Having seen four of the five (missing Tempest), I was most impressed with making memorable costumes in a contemporary, because let's face it, period films have an extreme advantage (with good reason). Yet, to make vivid clothes for a modern setting might be a tougher task CREATIVELY. Because of this...

MY CHOICE: I Am Love



DIRECTING
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David O. Russell - The Fighter
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - True Grit


It's usually prediction suicide to split Picture/Director. However, Hooper is young and Fincher made the critical darling. It just seems like a split kind of year. It reminds me of Chicago/The Pianist with Polanski scoring the win for Director over the newcomer Marshall. I'd be remiss if I didn't acknowledge everyone else, who were great.


MY CHOICE:
David Fincher - The Social Network



DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Exit through the Gift Shop
Gasland
Inside Job
Restrepo
Waste Land


Only seen 2 of the 5, and Documentary is always so tough to predict. IJ seems to have the most heat right now. The ones I have seen (Gift Shop and Restrepo) are both brilliant tho - if you get a chance, check them out. If I haven't seen at least a majority, I can't give a choice.


DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Killing in the Name
Poster Girl
Strangers No More
Sun Come Up
The Warriors of Qiugang


Four downbeat serious entrees - one uplifting. All are well made, but I was most taken with the upbeat one, and have a feeling the voters will be as well.


MY CHOICE:
Strangers No More



FILM EDITING
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network



I have a feeling the voters will go for the cross cutting across different story lines. If TKS wins here, it might win 8-10 awards. Can't argue with any of the nominees.

MY CHOICE: The Social Network


FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Incendies
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi)



Only saw one (Dogtooth) which was really disturbing [Side Note: Don't homeschool your kids till they're in their 20's - Thanks The mngmt]. Since Bardem got in I expect his film will win.



MAKEUP
Barney's Version
The Way Back
The Wolfman


Probably dumb to go against Baker, but I thought the aging make up in Barney was fantastic. And given it's a Giamatti film, I expect many actors saw it. This is a hunch pick.

(Also thought the wolf make up looked kinda cheesy)

MY CHOICE: Barney's Version



MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network


The most "classical" of the nominees. Really appreciated the music for all of these- each fit their film extremely well.

MY CHOICE: Inception


MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Country Strong - "Coming Home"
Tangled - "I See the Light"
127 Hours - "If I Rise"
Toy Story 3 - "We Belong Together"


Have no clue how they'll vote, just went with my favorite of the nominees.

MY CHOICE: If I Rise- 127 Hours


SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Day & Night
The Gruffalo
Let's Pollute
The Lost Thing
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)


Bitingly funny, and socially conscious. Seems like a sure Oscar winner to me.

MY CHOICE: Let's Pollute


SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
The Confession
The Crush
God of Love
Na Wewe
Wish 143


The only nominee that doesn't flirt with tragedy. Hysterical little gem. The others would all be deserving though...maybe the strongest set since I started watching the shorts 7-8 years ago.

MY CHOICE: God of Love


SOUND EDITING
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron: Legacy
True Grit
Unstoppable

Didn't see Tron, but the other four are highly deserving of the honor. I suspect it'll goto Inception based on the film's overall technical respect.

MY CHOICE: Unstoppable


SOUND MIXING
Inception
The King's Speech
Salt
The Social Network
True Grit

Chalk another one up for the dreams.

MY CHOICE: Inception


VISUAL EFFECTS
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Hereafter
Inception
Iron Man 2

Inception with the sweep of the post production techie awards. Didn't see Hereafter, but to me Nolan's film is clearly the class of this category.


My Choice: Inception



WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone


Thrilling pacing and cracker jack dialogue elevate this film about some over achieving nerds into greatness. If Sorkin loses this, then it'll be one of the largest upsets I can remember. And this despite the fact that there's some great writing in this category.

MY CHOICE:
Social Network



WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech


Another one brought home for TKS. Didn't see Another Year (tho I am NOT a Mike Leigh fan, so i doubt my mind would be changed), but I enjoyed the other four to varying degrees.


MY CHOICE:
Inception

[Lilaena De'Ville]

From everything I've read it sounds like Alice in Wonderland is the front runner for Costume Design. Kings Speech was a period piece, but overall the costumes were sort of drab. Which fit the movie, but flashy and fantastical tends to get the votes?

I have barely seen any of the movies, so I go with True Grit and Inception as my favs, and hope they win everything. Which... they won't.

[Alex Kaine]

As cool as Inception was, the thing that nearly ruined it all for me was that I was frequently straining to hear the dialogue whenever there was anything more than the slightest ambience behind it in the mix, and some scenes were completely lost to me. I talked to a friend who said he'd heard that from several people in multiple theaters.

Yes, they did some cool things with audio effects percolating down through the dream layers, but shouldn't a very basic blunder like not putting your dialogue at the front of the mix disqualify you from an Oscar in sound mixing?

[CMJ]

I can't say that I ever had trouble understanding any dialogue.

As far as the Alice in Wonderland vs King's Speech in costumes goes....I would not be shocked with a win by the former, but I definitely expect the latter. In my years of watching the awards, any time the heavy BP favorite is a period piece, it has a very big advantage in this category. Further, if two period films are thought to be co-favorites for BP, and are both up for costume --- that category can tell you which way the Academy will go at the end of the night.

Recent examples include Crouching Tiger, Hiden Dragon/Gladiator (even tho during the show itself Traffic rushed in hard as the darkhorse, nearly stealing BP) & Chicago vs The Pianist (the latter taking Best Actor/Director/Screenplay, but failing to beat Chicago in Costumes).

[CMJ]

Order of Awards:


01. Best Art Direction – Presented by Tom Hanks
02. Best Cinematography – Presented by Tom Hanks
03. Best Supporting Actress – No presenter announced
04. Best Animated Feature Film – Presented by Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis
05. Best Animated Short Subject – Presented by Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis
06. Best Adapted Screenplay – Presented by Javier Bardem and Josh Brolin
07. Best Original Screenplay – Presented by Javier Bardem and Josh Brolin
08. Best Foreign Language Film – Presented by Helen Mirren and Russell Brand
09. Best Supporting Actor – Presented by Reese Witherspoon
10. Best Original Score – Presented by Nicole Kidman and Hugh Jackman
11. Best Sound Mixing – Presented by Matthew McConaughey and Scarlett Johansson
12. Best Sound Editing – Presented by Matthew McConaughey and Scarlett Johansson
13. Best Make-Up – Presented by Cate Blanchett
14. Best Costume Design – Presented by Cate Blanchett
15. Best Documentary Short Subject – Presented by Jake Gyllenhaal and Amy Adams
16. Best Live Action Short Film – Presented by Jake Gyllenhaal and Amy Adams
17. Best Documentary Feature – Presented by Oprah Winfrey
18. Best Visual Effects – Presented by Jude Law and Robert Downey Jr.
19. Best Film Editing – Presented by Jude Law and Robert Downey Jr.
20. Best Original Song – Presented by Jennifer Hudson
21. Best Director – Presented by Kathryn Bigelow and Hilary Swank
22. Best Actress – Presented by Jeff Bridges
23. Best Actor – Presented by Sandra Bullock
24. Best Motion Picture – Presented by Steven Spielberg
__________________

[Jedi Master Carr]

I hope for an upset by the Social Network, but we shall see. Although, I admit I haven't seen The King's Speech yet. I have only seen like 5 of the nominees. Wish I had time to go to the movies but just have to wait for the DVD. It should be an interesting night.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I thought the Oscar show was terrible. Franco and Hathaway should never host again. Franco looked like he didn't want to be there. I still am not sold on the King Speech, but I haven't seen it yet. However, I still think Inception and Toy Story 3 were the best films from this year.

[CMJ]

Man, I thought the show was great...and it moved super fast (unlike many years). Franco was beyond wooden, but I thought Hathaway was really good. I could see her doing it solo some time.

I felt Social Network was the best film of 2010, but I knew TKS was going to win. If anything, I was stunned its win wasn't a massive one. Taking only four award (granted all majors) is way less than I anticipated from a period film. Usually those historical front runners are the types that get 6-9 awards.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was surprised how few awards it received myself. When it lost some of the tech categories I thought it Social Network was going to win, but knew King's Speech was going to win after Hooper won. It is weird nothing dominated, Inception won as many awards as TKS did. I wasn't impressive with Franco or Hathaway, they tried to be funny but it just didn't work. The first 10 minutes was great but the rest of the time they feel flat to me. I was impressed it ended so quickly and I think it helped they kept the speeches down. I also see they moved the Governor's awards to another night, which helped.