Box Office Contest 4th of July weekend

[Jedi Master Carr]

Last Weekend's actuals
1 1 Toy Story 3 BV $59,337,669
2 N Grown Ups Sony $40,506,562
3 N Knight & Day Fox $20,139,985
4 2 The Karate Kid Sony $15,547,421
5 3 The A-Team Fox $6,204,454

New Releases
Twilight: Eclipse
Last Airbender

Predict the 4day grosses from Friday to Monday, all points are doubled

[CMJ]

1. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - 93.85M
2. The Last Airbender - 47.02
3. Toy Story 3 - 36.95M
4. Grown Ups - 21.73M
5. Knight and Day - 10.84M

[Yog]

1. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - 95.87M
2. The Last Airbender - 46.74M
3. Toy Story 3 - 39.85M
4. Grown Ups - 24.77M
5. Knight and Day - 12.33M

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Twilight Eclipse 81.77
2 Last Airbender 40.88
3 Toy Story 3 39.77
4 Grown Ups 22.11
5 Knight and Day 13.55

[Crusader]

1. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse - 79.85M
2. The Last Airbender - 42.32
3. Toy Story 3 - 37.21M
4. Grown Ups - 17.65M
5. Knight and Day - 14.21M

[Jedi Master Carr]

I still think a few people overpredicted Eclipse. I see mid 80s at best for it right now for the 4 day, especially as it did 28 million on Friday. Saturday won't see much of an increase at all and films could decrease because of the 4th tomorrow and Sunday will be a bad movie day.

[CMJ]

We'll see..most industry projections had over 80M for just the Fr-Sun portion.

[Yog]

I still think a few people overpredicted Eclipse. I see mid 80s at best for it right now for the 4 day, especially as it did 28 million on Friday. Saturday won't see much of an increase at all and films could decrease because of the 4th tomorrow and Sunday will be a bad movie day.
I am wondering why you think it will do mid 80's at best. Maybe if it opened on Friday with 28M, but it has already been out for 2 days before that. Looking at the statistics for previous 4th of July releases, I see no precedent of such a terrible weekend multiplier.

Let's assume you're correct that it won't have much of an increase at all on Saturday, say it makes another 28M. Then it already has 56M over 2 days. Assuming a sizable drop the next day, say 30%, that's 20M or so on sunday, which ups the 3 day weekend to ~76M. To make mid 80's, it would have to make only 10M on monday.

So mid 80's is really more the bare minimum, in my view.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Twilight also have a huge history of bad legs. New Moon and Twilight had mutlipliers in the low 2s. I see 2.65 the best multiplier which would give it a 74 3 day weekend and with Monday I see somewhere between 84-87.

[Crusader]

Yeah according to BO Mojo the Twilight Saga is pretty frontloaded.

[Yog]

You could actually be right. Word is, it had an atrocious Saturday. I'm seeing a 22M figure thrown about, which would be hilarious, because not only is that a 20% drop, but it's less than the Thursday number. This has to be the most frontloaded franchise of all time.

[CMJ]

You could actually be right. Word is, it had an atrocious Saturday. I'm seeing a 22M figure thrown about, which would be hilarious, because not only is that a 20% drop, but it's less than the Thursday number. This has to be the most frontloaded franchise of all time.

What about Star Trek?

Maybe not the last one, but before that there were like 5 frontloaded movies. MAJORLY frontloaded.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You could actually be right. Word is, it had an atrocious Saturday. I'm seeing a 22M figure thrown about, which would be hilarious, because not only is that a 20% drop, but it's less than the Thursday number. This has to be the most frontloaded franchise of all time.

Whaty about Star Trek?
Maybe not the last one, but before that there were like 5 frontloaded movies. MAJORLY frontloaded.

I think Twilight is still worse New Moon came close to have a multiplier less than 2 now that is awful.

[Yog]

I think Twilight is worse because the frontloading is so consistently horrific. Sure, ST: Nemesis was exceptionally frontloaded, but even that could not beat New Moon. All the Star Trek movies except Nemesis have a weekend to total gross multiplier higher than 3, and the older ones even in the 5-6 range.

[CMJ]

Wasn't talking about the older ones, like I said. I guess you have to put the time those end of franchise films were released into perspective or something. I just remember in the mid to late 90's how shocking the (lack of) legs for those ST movies were. Many entertainment columns were written about them.

[Yog]

Yeah, but look up the numbers for Star Trek (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/series/StarTrek.php) and Twilight (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/series/Twilight.php), check out the weekend, daily stats, and the overall run. Even if you count only those 5 ST movies, the Twilight movies tank worse after the opening. Nemesis is a good contender though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Nemesis did that bad because of how bad of a movie it was. I agree Twilight has worse legs the last movie had the third biggest opening of all time and couldn't even make 300 million.

[CMJ]

Yeah, but look up the numbers for Star Trek (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/series/StarTrek.php) and Twilight (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/series/Twilight.php), check out the weekend, daily stats, and the overall run. Even if you count only those 5 ST movies, the Twilight movies tank worse after the opening. Nemesis is a good contender though.

Yes, but as I was saying legs are relative. Films didn't burn off as quickly back then, but look at all the films these days that have less than a 3 multiplier. That never used to happen with big films back when I started following the BO unless it just had toxic word of mouth(like say Last Action Hero, which if I recall still got over a three). Now, even films that are pretty popular can barely sneak over a 3 multiplier.

[Crusader]

Carr seems to know his Twilight fans since he is just 1 million away from being spot on in his estimation. It looks like my estimation was a little bit too bold.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Carr seems to know his Twilight fans since he is just 1 million away from being spot on in his estimation. It looks like my estimation was a little bit too bold.

We both were pretty close. I had a feeling this film was going to be very frontloaded. I doubt it comes close to 300 million. Probably make in the 280 range. I wish I was right about Last Airbender. I thought for certain this film was going to crash and burn.

[Crusader]

I read an article on Box Office Mojo last week that said the franchise is indeed very frontloaded so I tried to secure the spot the lower end of the range.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Twilight Saga: Eclipse $83,637,242 Jedi Master Carr
2 The Last Airbender $51,804,232 CMJ
3 Toy Story 3 $43,057,129 Yog
4 Grown Ups $26,052,792 Yog
5 Knight and Day $14,151,734 Crusader

Weekend points
Jedi Master Carr 100
Yog 100
CMJ 90
Crusader 60

Contest Points
CMJ 560
Jedi Master Carr 420
Crusader 380
Yog 325
Lilaena De’Ville 100
Lykaios 25

Need to remove the worst weekends to see if it gets any closer.