Big 12 (not) dissolving

[Dragon]

After several months of rumors and speculation, the much-anticipated shake-up in the Big 12 athletic conference has now begun. The University of Colorado has confirmed that it is leaving the Big 12 to join the Pac-10. (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5271438)

Meanwhile, it appears likely that Nebraska will join the Big Ten, (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5268408) and insiders expect that announcement to be made shortly.

Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech have all voiced their intention to stick together in order to preserve their rivalries and history. One strong possibility is that they will also make a bid to join the Pac-10. Throw in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, and you've got a potent Pac-16 conference, a twelve-team Big Ten, and Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, and Iowa State left in the cold, probably forced to find their place with smaller, non-BCS conferences like the Mountain West or MAC.

As a Texas Tech fan (but a relatively new one), I'm intrigued by the possibility of matching up with USC, Cal, and Oregon, though I have to feel sorry for the schools that are getting left behind.

[Sanis Prent]

I'll be keen to see how this affects things. I bet the attrition will be brutal

[Figrin D'an]

The Big Ten won't stop with Nebraska. Getting the Cornhuskers makes a nice splash and gives the conference another traditional power (and they're a good fit in general for the Big Ten). But the real goal, at least on some level, has been to leverage Notre Dame. Ten years ago, Jim Delany (Big Ten commissioner) made a push to get Notre Dame to join, but didn't have the clout to make it happen. Now he does. The Irish might not buy in immediately, but if the Pac-10 makes the move to 16 schools, or even if some go to the Pac-10 and some start talking to the SEC, Notre Dame will finally realize that a future without conference alignment will shut them out of the future BCS/playoff picture.



The next several days are going to be the most intriguing we've seen in the politics of college athletics since the Southwest Conference blew up.

[Figrin D'an]

Don't know how credible the source is, but a Kansas City news station is reporting that Texas and Texas A&M are talking seriously to the Big Ten, and Oklahoma is engaging in talks with the SEC but needs another school to get on board to make the petition work.

Wow, this could really get crazy if any of this (big IF) is true.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Okay so I'm starting to hear triangulation on this Oklahoma thing. That would be trippy as hell if it's true. I didn't think we were in a position to cannibalize anything out of the Big XII. Honestly, if we went poaching, it seems like we'd gnaw off half of the ACC if anything. Ideally, I'd love to see Georgia Tech and Miami added. The last rumblings I'd heard vis a vis Michael Slive (SEC commish) is that Virginia Tech was the most pragmatic market share choice. I'd be alright with the Hokies. Even this, I never have taken seriously though.

The next whisperings are FSU and Clemson, but I want neither as they're gutter trash. I'd rather poach Oklahoma first.

EDIT: Also, this is going to be extremely interesting in the MWC. If consolidation is minor, then they could pick up Boise State and the table scraps out of Big XII north and get a BCS auto bid. If the consolidation produces four super-conferences, there could be enough weight to roll on the NCAA. If that happens, holy shit.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This situation is getting crazy. I am shocked to see this happen. We could see the Big 12 vanish over night. I think the Big 10 might try to get Missouri, unless they are serious about the Texas schools.

[Morgan Evanar]

That would be pretty wild since Miami joined the ACC in '04. They're a private university so they'll probably just follow the money.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

SEC is loaded so y'all should come to the party.

Plus I'd like to beat y'all some more tbh.

[Dragon]

There's fear among the Texas Tech faithful that we'll get left out if Texas and Texas A&M go to the Big Ten. Isn't helped by the fact that officials from those schools met earlier today to discuss the future of the conference.

Thing is, Texas is in a position to dictate the future of the Big 12. They control the lion's share of the profits, and they're at the center of the historic rivalries. I'm sure the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-10 would all be thrilled to land them. The scuttlebutt I heard was that Texas's first choice is to go to the Pac-10, and their second choice is to keep the Big 12 intact (and perhaps balance it out with two more schools - TCU would be an interesting addition). A&M, on the other hand, prefers the SEC if they can't keep the Big 12 together.

Unfortunately, Texas Tech seems to be at their mercy right now. :(

Obviously, I'd much rather see the Pac-16 scenario. Joining the SEC is the only thing I can imagine that would make Texas Tech's division even harder.


EDIT: One thing to keep in mind: contractual and scheduling obligations mean that we will have two more years of Big 12 football before the restructuring takes effect, no matter what goes down. Other sports may make the jump more quickly, but we won't see Nebraska in the Big Ten and Colorado in the Pac-whatever until 2012.

Good New York Times article analyzing the speculation. (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/sports/11colleges.html?emc=eta1)

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Most SEC-centric things I'm hearing now are Virginia Tech and Texas A&M. That would actually be a really good fit for us.

[Dragon]

But what would A&M do with themselves without their UT fetish? Their fight song is even about beating Texas.

And it's not like they aren't already getting stomped regularly enough by Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. ;)

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

I'm certain they'd find a way to keep an out of conference game fixed for UT.

And I think that would honestly change the track record if they start getting SEC exclusivity for the Texas market. It's a good move for them.

Also, breaking news:

Boise State to Mountain West

Nebraska to Big Ten

Shit's gettin real...real fast.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So if the Big 12 dissolves, I am guessing Missouri goes to the Big 10, but where does Kansas, Kansas St, Iowa, Iowa St, and Baylor go? The MVC could grab Baylor and a few other schools, who knows the Big East or SEC could grab the Kansas schools. It should be interesting to watch.

[Dragon]

According to Missouri, the Big Ten has already said it's not interested in them. Ironic, since they were making overtures toward the Big Ten before anyone else entered the discussion.

Clearly, this restructuring is all about the football programs, which really makes me wonder what'll happen to the very potent Kansas and Kansas State basketball programs.

EDIT: ESPN is now reporting that Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State intend to join the Pac-10 (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5276668) when an offer is made, which is expected to happen this weekend. A&M has a 72-hour window to agree to that offer once it is issued.

The source that contributed to that article was of the opinion that A&M's courtship of the SEC is mainly to show that they aren't just going along with Texas's decision... even though they really are. However, if A&M does decline the Pac-10 offer (can't imagine they will unless they have a solid offer from the SEC as well as assurance of playing Texas every season), that will leave the conference one school short of a sixteen-team superconference.

Likely we'll see Washington, WSU, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UC, UCLA, and USC in one division, and Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Arizona, Arizona State, and TBA in the other. I've heard speculation that the two divisions will function in many ways as separate conferences - that they may not hold a league championship game and will be able to earn two BCS bowl bids. That will put pressure on other conferences to bulk up as well.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well that is why I suggested the Big East, they are really a basketball conference now.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Baylor will rightfully be kicked into a mid-major. They never deserved the Big XII in the first place.

Iowa's already sewn up into the Big 10. Iowa State and the Kansas teams are gonna get shat on. I wouldn't be surprised to see MWC pick up a pair of them to give them a championship and a BCS bid though.

Aggy really does need to switch to the SEC and get out from under Texas's shadow. If we can poach the Hokies too that would own so hard.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think Kansas would want to go the MVC. I think they could go to a big conference like the Big East.

[Morgan Evanar]

It would leave ACC football kinda wobbly without VT though. I mean, there are some decent teams left like GT and the Criminoles. I dunno.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Well that's why they would raid the Big East since I'm pretty sure the Big 10 plans on doing exactly that.


I don't think Kansas would want to go the MVC. I think they could go to a big conference like the Big East.

MWC's very close to getting a BCS bid and honestly, Big East makes very little geographic sense and their stock is falling anyways.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well that's why they would raid the Big East since I'm pretty sure the Big 10 plans on doing exactly that.


I don't think Kansas would want to go the MVC. I think they could go to a big conference like the Big East.

MWC's very close to getting a BCS bid and honestly, Big East makes very little geographic sense and their stock is falling anyways.

I want the Big East to survive. I enjoy it as a basketball conference. I honestly don't see Syracuse and UConn going anywhere. They are basketball schools who happen to play football. I think the Big East will survive. They could lose Pitt or Rutgers but could replace them with schools like East Carolina, MTSU, Memphis, or Central Florida

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Yeah if they're gonna make it they'd have to raid cUSA and Sun Belt and other places really hard. I don't see the whole conference being claimed, but I don't think they make it unless they do a fair amount of raiding themselves.

FWIW they can go ahead and have UAB that would be funny.

[Figrin D'an]

Looks like the remaining big dominoes might not be falling after all. Texas has <A HREF="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5286672">decided to remain in the Big 12</A>, which effectively means that the other Big 12 South teams are staying as well. The only two questions remaining seem to be 1) Will the Big 12 look to find a way to get back to 12 schools, and 2) whom will the Pac-10 target now as a 12th member?

I'm not sure the Big 12 has enough clout right now to grab two more teams, even from say the Mountain West. My guess is, they stay at 10 for now. I think the logical target for the Pac-10 now is Utah.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Awwww I wanted to see chaos..... :(

The silver lining is AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA @ Boise St.

Thought you'd get that BCS autobid huh? NOT SO FAST

[Dragon]

So the Big 12 has ten teams, the Big Ten has twelve teams. Any questions? :mneh

Great news for Missouri, Baylor, and the Kansas schools, but it's hard to believe the northern division has gotten even weaker, while the south remains one of the toughest divisions in the country. Of course, with only ten teams, chances are there won't be divisions anymore, not unless they add another two schools very quickly.

The candidates I heard don't exactly inspire confidence... BYU and Air Force.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Outside of BYU and Air Force not sure what other big schools are out there for the Big 12. I suppose they could go into C-USA or the Sun Belt but those teams aren't that big. MTSU and Houston are probably the best programs and I would say they are lesser schools than BYU and Air Force.

[Sanis Prent]

BYU is legit enough, but Air Force is trash. Let them poach TCU or Houston I say

[CMJ]

I think they're likely to stay at 10 for the forseeable future.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Awww I want to see chaos :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am glad really because it means we won't see these awful mega conferences.

[Figrin D'an]

I am glad really because it means we won't see these awful mega conferences.

Mega conferences will still happen, just not this year. The path to them is inevitable without a major change in the monetary structure of the current system.

As the final piece to the puzzle (for now), the Pac-10 did indeed invite Utah to be it's 12th member, and it's <A HREF="http://sports.espn.go.com/ncaa/news/story?id=5293329">expected Utah will accept.</A>

[Taataani Meorrrei]

This is adding to the delicious schadenfreude against Boise State. I'm all for this.

[CMJ]

I think it more hurts TCU than Boise State. BSU is still excited to be in the MWC on their messageboards. TCU is taking the Utes loss very hard on the other hand.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

I think it won't be too long before TCU is pulled into the Texas XII or whatever they wanna call it in this aftermath. I think they'll be okay.

[CMJ]

I doubt it. Texas wants no part in a conference championship game - that was one of their terms for staying in the Big XII.

[Sanis Prent]

Why the hell is that? Isn't a conf championship a good thing, as it bolsters the revenue stream for everyone?

[CMJ]

Texas doesn't want the chance to lose the Title game, and thus a chance at the National Title. Mack Brown and company have been very vocal in their displeasure of such a game(remember even the rumor of the Pac 16 included them asking for no championship game and 2 autobids to the BCS).

Texas has little need for more money, and they are so big they're really controlling things in the Big X(II). I'm sure a Kansas would like title game revenue, but they are agreeing to whatever the Horns want so they can keep the league together.

Really only A&M has the guts to stand up to UT. The Aggies are basically what saved the league. If they hadn't refused to join the Pac-10, it would now be the Pac 16 instead of 12. A&M said forget that and was looking into the SEC. UT was afraid of the SEC getting a major inroad to the state, so they tried to keep the league together instead. Then when UT got permission to start their own TV network (which will probably make up and lost Championship game revenue and then some for UT) the Orangebloods were more than happy to stay in the new Big X.

[Dragon]

This was a financial victory for Texas and Texas A&M, and definitely Kansas, KSU, Missouri, Iowa State, and Baylor are all breathing a sigh of relief, but it's a step backward for Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and even Oklahoma. Instead of hitching up with a balanced powerhouse of a conference, they're now stuck in a leaky Big Irrelevant Number with Texas controlling an even bigger share. A&M just buried themselves, and everybody else, deeper in Texas's pockets. Way to go.