Gulf of Mexico Oil Spill / Deepwater Horizon Explosion

[Yog]

http://img146.imageshack.us/img146/124/oilslickundergraphicjpg.jpg

Photos: LINK (http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/04/oil_spill_approaches_louisiana.html)


Currently, an estimated 5,000 barrels per day are leaking after the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig explosion (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_drilling_rig_explosion) in the Mexican Gulf, due to a damaged wellhead. This is shaping up to be the biggest oil spill since Exxon Valdez. Robot submarines have unsuccessfully attempted to activate a shutoff device known as a blowout preventer, the valve would not turn. Booms are being deployed, dispersants sprayed, and some patches of oil are being burned. Despite these efforts, large slicks of oil are now hitting the Louisiana coast and vulnerable wild life.

In the meanwhile, British Petroleum engineers are planning to place a dome over the well head, capturing the oil and piping it to the surface for containment in a storage vessel. But the design and fabrication of the dome could take weeks if not months. BP is also preparing to drill a relief well to slow down the oil flow, but this could take an even longer time.

How much exactly could spill out?


Worst case disaster scenario:

The worst-case scenario for the broken and leaking well gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico would be the loss of the wellhead currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels -- or 210,000 gallons per day.

If the wellhead is lost, oil could leave the well at a much greater rate, perhaps up to 150,000 barrels -- or more than 6 million gallons per day -- based on government data showing daily production at another deepwater Gulf well.

By comparison, the Exxon Valdez spill was 11 million gallons total. The Gulf spill could end up dumping the equivalent of 4 Exxon Valdez spills per week.

"Typically, a very good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day, but that's under control. I have no idea what an uncontrolled release could be," said Stephen Sears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University.

Minerals Management Service data indicates that the deepwater Thunderhorse production platform, also owned by BP, has produced up to 150,000 barrels per day.

SOURCE (http://blog.al.com/live/2010/04/gulf_mexico_oil_spill_worst_case.html)



A somewhat more "opimistic" prediction:

But Clifford Jones, an oil and gas engineering specialist from the UK's Aberdeen University, suggests it should not be considered in the same category as the Exxon Valdez spill of 1989, with which it is regularly being compared.

It is a threat to the ecosystem, he allows: but "Exxon Valdez was a supertanker holding 11 million barrels, and exit of oil from it was simply by gravity.

"Whereas this current incident involves a well that's under the sea, and at most about four million barrels will have leaked out before the pressure within the well drops sufficiently for there to be no further discharge."

Whether or not the estimate of four million barrels turns out to be correct - and it is disputed - there is no doubt that the oil is coming out much more slowly than is normal from a tanker spill.

In principle, this allows the authorities greater time to deal with it - although clearly in this case their efforts have met with mixed success.

Source: BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science_and_environment/10093904.stm)


This is worrying.

[Figrin D'an]

This will be one big ultimate nail in the coffin of new offshore drilling areas opening up, at least until there is a power shift in the executive and legislative branches of the US government.

The slick has already reached the coastline in Louisiana, and cleanup efforts are going to be further hampered by storms rolling into the area.

BP is in for an engineering, business and public relations nightmare.

[Park Kraken]

Not to mention the major hit Florida's Tourist economy is going to take this summer from oil soaked beaches along the west coast, and possibly even the east coast as well. Not to mention what might happen if we have an early season Tropical Storm or Hurricane develop in the GoM and head north.

[Darth Turbogeek]

This will be one big ultimate nail in the coffin of new offshore drilling areas opening up, at least until there is a power shift in the executive and legislative branches of the US government.

The slick has already reached the coastline in Louisiana, and cleanup efforts are going to be further hampered by storms rolling into the area.

BP is in for an engineering, business and public relations nightmare.

We had a remarkably similar situation happen in the Timor Sea, to the west of Australia. It took something like 3 months to cap and was only not a major disaster by the fact the oil rig and prevaling current were well offshore.

Unfortuntly, the worst case is more likely with the Gulf and that's going to mean a stunning blow to fisheries and tourism. Not to mention BP is going to be heading for a world of finacial pain once the lawsuits start. It's honestly hard to see anything in the slightest positive happening with this one for some time

[Sanis Prent]

As somebody who is keenly tied into southern culture and how dependent we are on the gulf for food and livelihood, this infuriates me to the point that I'm left shaking. We have destroyed one of the best places in America

[Morgan Evanar]

As somebody who is keenly tied into southern culture and how dependent we are on the gulf for food and livelihood, this infuriates me to the point that I'm left shaking. We have destroyed one of the best places in AmericaThis is exactly how I feel. All I can feel is rage.

[Yog]

Edit - posted interesting graph from here (http://www.ngoilgas.com/news/oil-spill-latest-the-cost-of-clumsiness/), but the numbers are disputed, so take it with a pinch of salt. It is also not certain that an acoustic trigger would have prevented the spill.

As a reference, that graph uses 5,000 barrels per day. Since there is no way to directly measure the flow of oil, one has to rely on satellite images, which makes the estimates uncertain.

The oil spill may in fact already surpassed Exxon Valdez at this point.

Oil Flow estimates brom NOAA, suggests current spill is at about 7,000 to 10,000 tonnes of oil (Exxon Valdez was at 37,000 tonnes).

[Rutabaga]

Starting to see images of the wildlife devastation that's just becoming apparent...oh, it's all so sad and will have horrific long-term effects. :(

And that fat-ass Rush Limbaugh has dared to say that nature fixes itself and Prince William Sound in Alaska is now pristine after the Exxon Valdez disaster. What a crock of shit. :shakefist

[Darth Turbogeek]

Why the fuck does any sane person even give a wet fart to right wing media and the shit they say?

Oh that's right, idiots who actually think Sarah Palin is a hero and not a fucking retard. Bloody Hell, Murdoch has a lot to answer for by giving oxygen thieves like Limbaugh a space to spew their vomit.

[Taataani Meorrrei]

It may seem like a petty thing, but I realized today I may never have gulf oysters three ways ever again, and it's probably one of my favorite dishes ever. That breaks my heart into pieces.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Or anything from the Gulf, if the estimates of the true size of the oil leak are correct. This thing's been leaking a hell of a lot more than 5000 barrels - more like 50,000 barrels.

[Morgan Evanar]

I don't understand why BP is saying the spill is only 5k barrels when it's obvious it's many more. Do they think the public won't find out? They're lying, and it's only going to make the backlash worse.

Apparently they decided to skip the final cement test. Good going, assholes.

[Park Kraken]

BP isn't saying the spill is only 5K Barrels a day, that's just what they're saying that they're managing to siphon off. The overflow amount they aren't saying right now, but 'unofficial sources within the company' have reported that an additional 19K barrels a day is leaking in addition to the 5K that is being siphoned off.

[Darth Turbogeek]

BP isn't saying the spill is only 5K Barrels a day, that's just what they're saying that they're managing to siphon off. The overflow amount they aren't saying right now, but 'unofficial sources within the company' have reported that an additional 19K barrels a day is leaking in addition to the 5K that is being siphoned off.

BP have been bullshitting. Now lets list what they have been saying and some other interesting facts

a) BP have up to yesterday been claiming 5000 barrels and 2000 barrels syphoned off.

b) The feds forced BP to admit to 5000 in the first place when BP wanted to insist on 1000

c) They today stated 5000 barrels syphoned. And then someone went hey who wait WTF numbers dont stand up, why is it still spewing oil???

d) It's been blindingly obvious it's well beyond 5000 barrels for two weeks.

e) Dispersants have been causing a lot of the oil to hold in colder lower reaches of the Gulf. You could say this was deliberate by BP to hide just how bad the spill truly is but eventually this oil will rise.

f) The Feds forced BP to the new webcam that is now showing the true speed oil is gushing out and how tiny the syphon actually is. The syphon is like 8 cm verses a nearly 60 cm broken pipe.


So put that altogether, if BP actually admitted hat it knows - that this is an A class fuckup and the oil leak is more liek 50000 barrels a day. The Gulf area is utterly fucked and Florida is going to be hard too.

[Yog]

To begin with, they were even reluctant to admit 5,000 barrels a day, they tried to push the 1,000 barrels a day number.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Welp, latest suggestions is that the oil leak is more like 95,000 barrels a day.

[Yog]

Welp, latest suggestions is that the oil leak is more like 95,000 barrels a day.
Welp indeed. That is more than 2 Exxon Valdez every week.

[Sanis Prent]

I am so fucking depressed about this. This is going to devastate my state for the rest of my life

[Park Kraken]

Me too.

And this is just the beginning. Imagine what happens when the hurricanes/tropical storms starts washing this oil up rivers, tributaries, mangroves, wetlands, etc. Everywhere a storm hits, the affected areas will be covered in a sea of stinky black.

[Yog]

It's still too early predicting exactly the extent of damage this will cause for the shores / coastal areas, except that it is going to be long lasting effects and very serious damage to the eco systems.

So far, you guys been extremely lucky with the wind / ocean currents, because a very small percentage of the oil reached land. Furthermore, once the oil reaches the surface, it starts dissipating, and eventually the oil is consumed by bacteria.

Nevertheless, it is sure to have a devastating effect on fisheries / shrimp harvesting and various sea food production. I mean, who wants to eat shrimp that has been swimming in crude oil?

[Darth Turbogeek]

Nevertheless, it is sure to have a devastating effect on fisheries / shrimp harvesting and various sea food production. I mean, who wants to eat shrimp that has been swimming in crude oil?

Shrimp are fragile. They will be long dead before they can be fished.

The real problem will be the Gulf will turn into one big dead zone - and is becoming one now. The bacteria as they multiply consume all the oxygen, killing all the life, who fall to the floor of the ocean and the resulting rot consumes more oxygen killing more life and thence you have a positive feedback loop.

And the areas being hit now are breeding areas of rmigration birds and fish so they will be gone too. The entire ecosystem is going to be utterly destroyed, with little hope of any recovery for years.

The true scale it is correct to say will only be seen in months to come but it's quite clear it's going to be staggering

[Yog]

A live stream of the oil spilling out..

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60 minutes coverage part 1:
<embed src='http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/player-dest.swf' FlashVars='linkUrl=http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6490348n&releaseURL=http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/player-dest.swf&videoId=50087695&partner=news&vert=News&si=254&autoPlayVid=false&name=cbsPlayer&allowScriptAccess=always&wmode=transparent&embedded=y&scale=noscale&rv=n&salign=tl' allowFullScreen='true' width='425' height='324' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' pluginspage='http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer'></embed><br/><a href='http://www.cbsnews.com'>Watch CBS News Videos Online</a>


60 minutes coverage part 2:
<embed src='http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/player-dest.swf' FlashVars='linkUrl=http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6490378n&releaseURL=http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/player-dest.swf&videoId=50087696&partner=news&vert=News&si=254&autoPlayVid=false&name=cbsPlayer&allowScriptAccess=always&wmode=transparent&embedded=y&scale=noscale&rv=n&salign=tl' allowFullScreen='true' width='425' height='324' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' pluginspage='http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer'></embed><br/><a href='http://www.cbsnews.com'>Watch CBS News Videos Online</a>



The latest outrage comes from Dr. Rand Paul, who among other things wants to repeal the Civil Rights Act, and is running for senator of Kentucky. He said in an interview that it was unAmerican of Obama putting his boot on the neck of BP:
"Sometimes accidents happen! (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mAGS73bmnkM)"

[Morgan Evanar]

Rand Paul can take a long walk off a short pier in coastal Louisiana.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Rand Paul can take a long walk off a short pier in coastal Louisiana.


Is he related to that utter lunatic Ron Paul per chance?

[Morgan Evanar]

Rand Paul can take a long walk off a short pier in coastal Louisiana.


Is he related to that utter lunatic Ron Paul per chance?
Ja. Rand is his son.

[Callomas Savoc]

Named after the pure fucking nutter author Ayn Rand, even.

Fucking econ-libertarian swine.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Named after the pure fucking nutter author Ayn Rand, even.

Fucking econ-libertarian swine.

Libertarian my ass - Ron Paul is just plain fucking stupid and it appears his son is every bit as fucked

[Park Kraken]

Well, Top Kill has ended in failure. It's starting to look like perhaps nothing will stop the oil flow until the transferral pipeline is completed sometime in early August. :( :ohno :(

[Rutabaga]

Bill Maher had Phillipe Cousteau Jr. on his show Friday night, and he asked Cousteau about the claims from some people that the ocean can take care of itself and clean itself up. Cousteau's response was succinct: He said it was "bullshit."

I also can't stand the right-wing meme that's made its way into the corporate media, that this is somehow "Obama's Katrina." That is downright insane. They are 2 completely different events with completely different circumstances. I have to admit that I haven't been completely satisfied with the federal government's response BUT it's true that I'm not sure exactly what they can do. Perhaps get the Army Corps of Engineers involved, but beyond that...I don't know. This is simply not my area of expertise and I don't understand it at all. But it seems like some people want Obama to put on a wetsuit and dive down there to stick a finger in the ruptured pipeline or something. O_o

What I do know is, the devastation that this disaster has wrought and is still yet to inflict on the Gulf Coast (and perhaps eventually up the Eastern Seaboard) is catastrophic and will last for decades. Who knows if the area will fully recover. And I shudder to think what might happen during hurricane season, it will only make it worse. :ohno

PS...Rand Paul is an ass. If he somehow manages to win the election, then I think we should throw Kentucky out of the union. :grumble

[Morgan Evanar]

I honestly hope the Govt. sues BP so far into the ground after this they have to be liquidated. They were incredibly negligent every step of the way.

[Park Kraken]

I'm not even sure the US Army Corps would have permission to proceed in this area, I think it would fall under the purview of the US Navy to handle this problem. Too bad we got rid of all our nuclear depth charges.

[Darth Turbogeek]

I'm not even sure the US Army Corps would have permission to proceed in this area, I think it would fall under the purview of the US Navy to handle this problem. Too bad we got rid of all our nuclear depth charges.


Oh Lord, please dont spruke the nuke idea. It literally can not be done at that depth.


I have to admit that I haven't been completely satisfied with the federal government's response BUT it's true that I'm not sure exactly what they can do

And there's the rub - the feds are simply not equipped to deal with such an accident. They have no specialists, no equipment and no knowledge. No Govt has the expertise to deal with this - the actual best people are in BP's employ. To even do the top kill, BP engineers are inventing equipment - the oil well was at the edge of all knowledge how to do it in the first place. NOw, while BP's contractors fucked up horribly to cuase the spill in the first place, I will say that at least they are doing the humanly best to stop the leak - the engineering problems are immense and no one has any idea how to cap the well quickly. The only known working solution is the relief well and THAT'S rather difficult to do.

So apart from the unfortante job of cleanup - which I understand there's about 20,000 people involved with - the Givt really cant do anything. Anyone saying otherwise, please make some suggestions - and see if they stand to even the briefest debate, which is unlikely

[Park Kraken]

Oh Lord, please dont spruke the nuke idea. It literally can not be done at that depth.

Yeah I know. 'Bout the only thing that might (1%) happen is the pressure shockwave from a 1 or 2K depth detonation collapsing the shaft.

I'm sure there should be something they can do. Maybe jam a drill from another platform or ship into the shaft hole to plug it.

[Darth Turbogeek]

Oh Lord, please dont spruke the nuke idea. It literally can not be done at that depth.
Yeah I know. 'Bout the only thing that might (1%) happen is the pressure shockwave from a 1 or 2K depth detonation collapsing the shaft.

I'm sure there should be something they can do. Maybe jam a drill from another platform or ship into the shaft hole to plug it.

They cant deliver a nuke at that depth anyway, nor can they drill it and place it close enough - it would need to be in the 40K yeild range to even stand a chance to be effective. The technolgy to nuke the hole effectively doesnt exist.

The issue with trying to jam the hole is that it's presently going at 13,000 psi or somethign ridulous like that. They tried a junk shot, effectively the jam the hole idea, didnt work. The only way to truly block is to inject drilling mud at very high pressure into the hole via a relief well, which is a tried and true method. However the relief well wont be ready by August so......

[Park Kraken]

I wasn't thinking about drilling a nuke in the hole. That second sentence was referencing them just jamming the drill bit they used to create the hole in the first place back in there and leaving it in place. If it doesn't stop the flow it should at least slow it down until the relief well is ready. But lordy knows BP would find it too expensive probably to lose the drill bit.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I have to admit that I haven't been completely satisfied with the federal government's response BUT it's true that I'm not sure exactly what they can do
And there's the rub - the feds are simply not equipped to deal with such an accident. They have no specialists, no equipment and no knowledge. No Govt has the expertise to deal with this - the actual best people are in BP's employ. To even do the top kill, BP engineers are inventing equipment - the oil well was at the edge of all knowledge how to do it in the first place. NOw, while BP's contractors fucked up horribly to cuase the spill in the first place, I will say that at least they are doing the humanly best to stop the leak - the engineering problems are immense and no one has any idea how to cap the well quickly. The only known working solution is the relief well and THAT'S rather difficult to do.

So apart from the unfortante job of cleanup - which I understand there's about 20,000 people involved with - the Govt really cant do anything. Anyone saying otherwise, please make some suggestions - and see if they stand to even the briefest debate, which is unlikely

Yeah. This situation makes me sad. But it is completely unprecedented. There are no fixes just laying around that BP is too stingy to use. Its not like they don't want to stop this as soon as they can, this is a horrible horrible mess and will cost them bazillions of dollars anyway.

[Cirrsseeto Quez]

Why are they only drilling two relief wells if they aren't being stingy about this? I can almost buy the rest of it, but almost every industry voice I've heard is screaming that only two wells is just insane.

[Darth Turbogeek]

I wasn't thinking about drilling a nuke in the hole. That second sentence was referencing them just jamming the drill bit they used to create the hole in the first place back in there and leaving it in place. If it doesn't stop the flow it should at least slow it down until the relief well is ready. But lordy knows BP would find it too expensive probably to lose the drill bit.


If that would work, BP would have done it. It's costing them 10's of millions a DAY for the leak to go uncapped. A drill head is cheap in comparision.

We do need to stop being cynical here because it's in BP's interest to cap the well however they can right now no matter the cost.


Why are they only drilling two relief wells if they aren't being stingy about this? I can almost buy the rest of it, but almost every industry voice I've heard is screaming that only two wells is just insane.

Most of the industry voices are nothing in reality more than Monday morning quarterbacks. The real reasons for two would be as follows -

It's a long way down, even to the seabed. The equipment is in very short supply and there's simply not four drill platforms that can actually execute this job in the area. Other platforms that might be usable would already be in use and would be extremely difficult to extract them from their allocated tasks. IF BP have spare platforms on hand, they are pulling them out of the reserve inventory, which would be usualy in case of breakdown of working platforms, so they would be praying to any deity known that another problem doesnt come up elsewhere if they commit all reserve platforms.

I'm rather surprised they have two platforms they can use, let alone four

The other reasons would have to be with actual staff who are capable of executing the operation. Engineers and operators of that caliber and knowledge arent easy to find - and make no mistake the relief wells will be taking the best men possible. Just one relief well will take a hell of a lot of resources that no one has spare. Two would be straining all resources to the limit. The geological intigracies is insane just by itself, you cant just drill.

If they could, four wells would still also be a lot cheaper than the final cost of an uncontained spill so I doubt BP are being stingy in this case. They HAVE to cap the well and by now it'll be at any cost and they know it.

[Dasquian Belargic]

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/06/caught_in_the_oil.html?camp=localsearch:on:twit:bi gpic

:(

[Droo]

Simply heartbreaking.

[Rutabaga]

And BP is trying to keep those kinds of pictures from being publicized. :shakefist

They suck. :shakefist

So here's my philosophical thought for the day...the US Supreme Court has ruled that corporations are people. So...11 people went down with Deepwater Horizon. So...let's charge BP with murder. Among other things. :shakefist

[Dasquian Belargic]

Comedian Tom Green blogged his take on the situation: http://www.tomgreen.com/blog/?post=814

[Park Kraken]

Comedian Tom Green blogged his take on the situation: http://www.tomgreen.com/blog/?post=814

Reads more like a suicide note than a rant.

In regional news, Oil has started washing up on Pensacola Beach. Five years ago they had to deal with the damage from Hurricane Ivan and Dennis in '04 and '05 respective, and now instead of beach erosion and destruction they get oil. :(