Worrying Situation in the Middle East

[Shadow Storm]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091018/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iran_bombing


http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091019/wl_nm/us_iran_guards_attack


Now it's too early really to tell where this is going, but this is a classical setup for an excuse to go to war. Although personally I doubt we'll actually see a full out military conflict evolve from this, by implicating Pakistani Intelligence, they could be giving themselves a reason to help fund and train militants currently fighting against the Pakistani goverment.

For those of you who would say why would Iran do this? Well, the most obvious reason would be, if the militants topple the Pakistani goverment, then Iran could benefit by recieving any number of nuclear arms or technology for it's own program from the Pakistani stockpiles.

If this is the case, then certainly Iran would be more willing to cooperate with the UN concerning it's own nuclear program, since it would be almost assured of obtaining weapons from Pakistan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091019/ap_on_re_eu/eu_un_nuclear_iran

And while this all may sound like a "tin-foil hat" conspiracy, and it may well turn out to be, but things have been unfolding all across the middle east that could very well point to our theory being the case.

At any point, at this time it's pretty much a "wait and see" for us.

[Darth Turbogeek]

No, it's no prelude to anything.

And Iran isnt touching the Sunni based terrorists and militants in Pakistan with a barge pole even after they are dead. Iran does not fund Al-Quadia or it's offshoots, nor anyone slightly involved with a Sunni sect.

I might point out that Iran has no need for Pakistan's existing technology if it wished to build a bomb. Building nukes isnt that hard, the information and technolgy is very easily gotten. The hard bit is the centrifuges but again, no biggie.

I would also point out that Iran's nuclear ambitions have got more to do with the price of oil than a bomb. Right now, they burn oil to produce electricity - easy for them with such a big supply. But it's worth a lot of money. Switching to nuclear power is in fact VERY economical and a lot of sense. The fact that the USA wasnt surprised when the second nuclear palnt was announced says that there's a lot more talking going on behind the scenes between the parties in discussion than they let on. Iran's nuclear program is much MUCH more open than the other well known middle eastern nuclear armed country

[Yog]

Now I agree with DT this is really not a prelude to anything. It's just the same friction between Shiite and Sunni Muslims in the Middle East as seen since... well forever, really. They bomb each other's mosques in the name of God, and whenever one faction is in power, the other side try to overthrow the Government. Nothing new there. As for Iran blaming US / EU for being behind it, that's just the usual blame the imperialist infidels in the west rhetorics.



I might point out that Iran has no need for Pakistan's existing technology if it wished to build a bomb. Building nukes isnt that hard, the information and technolgy is very easily gotten. The hard bit is the centrifuges but again, no biggie.
Correct, correct and correct.




The fact that the USA wasnt surprised when the second nuclear palnt was announced says that there's a lot more talking going on behind the scenes between the parties in discussion than they let on. Iran's nuclear program is much MUCH more open than the other well known middle eastern nuclear armed country
Woah woah woah, hold the phone.

USA was not surprised about the announcement about the second nuclear plant, because it was their intelligence service (and the Israeli) that discovered the second plant. Then, it was pretty much laid out for Iran, "we know about your secret facility and what you're up to" (maybe this is what you're referring to about talking behind the scenes?). Iran realized they had been caught with their pants down, so they announced it before USA did. That way, it would look like they were forthcoming about their program. The whole purpose of building the facility in the mountain was to A. keep it hidden and B. protect it from potential bomb strikes. There is little doubt in my mind, if Iran had the chance, they would have enriched weapons grade uranium in secret as long as they could.



I would also point out that Iran's nuclear ambitions have got more to do with the price of oil than a bomb. Right now, they burn oil to produce electricity - easy for them with such a big supply. But it's worth a lot of money. Switching to nuclear power is in fact VERY economical and a lot of sense.
Now, this is true. Iran does have need for energy, and nuclear energy is cheap and makes a lot of sense. Here is the beef though. The Iranian Government have on multiple occasions been offered fuel for their reactors, the kind that is not useful for weapons purpose. The US / EU would even be willing to help building their reactors, but so far, they have refused. So the question is why. Why do they stubbornly insist on enriching their own uranium? More to the point, why are they willing to risk sanctions and conflict with the rest over the world over this point? The answer to this question has a lot to do with how the Mullahs are thinking and their puppet on strings president. That is not to say we should seek military confrontation with Iran (that would be a terrible idea), but I would not trust the Mullahs as far as I could throw them.

[Yog]

On a related note, there is a draft for civilian use uranium on the table, now to see if it will get signed. If that happens, it will save us a lot of headache, and the world can focus on what is going on in Afghanistan, Pakistan and North Korea..
http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/10/21/iran.nuclear/

UPDATE: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8318258.stm


Iran and three world powers have been handed a draft agreement aimed at reducing international concerns over Tehran's nuclear programme.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which proposed the plan after talks in Vienna, wants an answer by Friday.

Details are yet to be confirmed, but the plan is believed to involve Iran exporting uranium to be enriched in France and Russia.

Iran's chief negotiator has not commented on the uranium export plan.

The negotiations have involved the UN, Iran, France, Russia and the US.

IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei told reporters in Vienna that he was feeling "optimistic" after the talks, which he said had been "very constructive".

"Everybody at the meeting was trying to help, trying to look to the future and not to the past, trying to heal the wounds that existed for many years," he said.

"I have circulated a draft agreement that in my judgment reflects a balanced approach to how to move forward."

Russian nuclear industry insiders told the BBC the process proposed would involve Iran sending its uranium to the IAEA, which would forward it to Russia for enriching.

The enriched uranium would then be returned to the IAEA and sent to France, which has the technology to add the "cell elements" needed for Iran's reactor, they said.

This process would enable Iran to obtain enough enriched uranium for its research reactor, but not enough to produce a weapon.

Exporting uranium has been seen as a way for Iran to get the fuel it needs, while giving guarantees to the West that it will not be used for nuclear weapons.

Iranian chief negotiator Ali Asghar Soltaniyeh talked positively about a deal, but did not mention uranium export.

Confidence boost

Mr ElBaradei said there had been many technical, legal and policy issues to address in the Vienna talks, as well as "issues of confidence and trust".

"That is why it has taken us some time and that is why we need to send the agreement to capitals for final approval," he added.

"I very much hope that people see the big picture - that this agreement could pave the way for a complete normalisation of relations between Iran and the international community."

The BBC's Bethany Bell in Vienna says the completion of the draft will be a big confidence boost for all involved in the talks, but many details are still to be worked out.

Iran insists its nuclear programme is solely for peaceful purposes and that it has the right to enrich uranium.

Western states believe it is attempting to develop a nuclear weapons programme.