Ten Noms for Best Picture

[CMJ]

Wow, I have to say I am stunned.

http://www.oscars.org/press/pressreleases/2009/20090624.html

They've had 5 noms for so long, it's going to be very odd for 10. It can go either way I guess, but my first thought is it's gonna suck.

[Crusader]

This could be fun depending on the competition. I haven't spotted any personal movie of the year yet so this might be intresting.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah this is going to be very strange. Not too sure what this will mean in the long run.
Edit
I think this will lead to big budget films making the cut this year for example you could see a couple of these films get nominated
Up, Public Enemies (if it is any good), Star Trek, The Hangover, and maybe Harry Potter (if it gets good reviews), or Avatar (same deal).

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I agree with you, Carr, I think its an excuse for them to be able to add the more 'popular' films that everyone thinks should get noms... and then award the art house film that made 3 mil the oscar. ;)

[CMJ]

When was the last true "art house film" to win the Oscar? ;)

Check the BO for the winners the last 20 years or so. Most of them have been hits. About the only real underperformer in relation to the rest would be Crash.

[Jedi Master Carr]

When was the last true "art house film" to win the Oscar? ;)

Check the BO for the winners the last 20 years or so. Most of them have been hits. About the only real underperformer in relation to the rest would be Crash.

Well Crash and English Patient. I think it is more of excuse to nominate high profile films like The Dark Knight or this years case Star Trek.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I was being partially facetious. ;)

[CMJ]

Well Crash and English Patient. I think it is more of excuse to nominate high profile films like The Dark Knight or this years case Star Trek.

EP actually grossed around 80M I believe. Back in 1996 dollars...that'd be around 100M now I'd guess.

[Xavier Synik]

In a roundabout way this almost sounds like a cash grab. I mean what's the point? The only benefit from this is the fact that there are a bunch of people out there who will say "Oh it was nominated... Better go check it out."

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well Crash and English Patient. I think it is more of excuse to nominate high profile films like The Dark Knight or this years case Star Trek.

EP actually grossed around 80M I believe. Back in 1996 dollars...that'd be around 100M now I'd guess.

I thought it made less. I was thinking it made close to 60 million.

[Yog]

English Patient is a textbook example of a movie getting like half of it's gross or more because of oscar buzz though. It only made like 36M before the nominations, then it suddenly got some freakish legs, and even had a 49% bump the weekend after winning BP. So in essence, Carr is right at least about that movie.

You can say the same thing about a lot of the other winners as well. Many of them were not so much box office successes on their own, but made tens of millions more due to many nominations and wins, and not only oscars, but golden globe, and various other awards. Nowadays, awards are one of the major vehicles of movie studio's marketing. In fact, many studios plan for the theater and screen count entirely around the nominations.

Of course, that is not to say the winners were not good, quite the opposite. The oscar bump promotes quality filmmaking, which is good. It just shows how some of these movies flew way under the radar until everyone saw they got lot of award considerations, then they wanted to figure out what the fuss was about.

Just look at last year's winner, Slumdog Millionaire (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=slumdogmillionaire.htm). Looking at 143M figure for it's total run, you might think that proves it was a huge crowd magnet, but it really was fueled (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29340310) by oscar nominations. Look at all those increases after opening wide, coordinated with the nominee announcement.

If you want to look at awarded movies that were real box office hits based on word of mouth alone, you'd have to start looking at the movies released in the 3 other quarters of the year. The list of movies released in previous spring, summer or early fall that makes the oscar cut is disproportional slim.

[Yog]

Actually, come to think of it, the real box office hit among the BP nominees last year was Benjamin Button (it already made most of its gross by january). The other nominees like Milk, Frost/Nixon and The Reader really tanked at the box office, even with award boost.

I think with 10 nominees, we would have seen movies like Wall-E, The Dark Knight and Iron Man on that list. That would improve the Oscar's resonance with the public, I think, when they see more mainstream movies make the cut.

It would also make room for movies that should have been nominated, but did not for whatever reasons. I can think of tons of movies that got snubbed over the years, which with this system would have gotten some recognition.

[CMJ]

I don't think you can throw out a films BO, just because it used marketing a marketing strategy of capitilzing on nomination/awards either tho. That's in a sense - cheap ad time. Sure studios campaign for awards in the trades magazines and such, but if they're lucky to be nominated they get a ton of free advertising in the press as they constantly discuss them.

Oh, and no way Iron Man makes the cut last year. Dark Knight and Wall-E almost surely would've tho.

But we really on't know how this will all work out. If you only need 10.1% of the vote to win - we really MIGHT see a real art house type film win. Small but rabid fanbases would definitely be in play if the rest of the noms are more typical Oscar types of films.

Talk about ticking off the "mainstream" people.

[Yog]

You're probably right about Iron Man, it's a reach.

That 10.1% scenario is probably going to make things a lot more unpredictable for analysts and those who like to talk about the Oscars, as us. I don't mind that though (it gives us more to talk about!). :)

A wider field of BP nominees gives less chance of a obvious nomination snubs, and that is what annoys mainstream movie goers more than anything else. I think most people can understand a movie like slumdog millionaire winning BP, what they don't understand is why a movie like Dark Knight and Wall-E are not nominated for best picture at ALL. And I can sort of agree with them.

Also, personally not too worried about art house. I leave that to Jedi Master Carr. :p He seems to think Babel is art house, and I don't think it's even close. I define it completely different. If you ask me, when you have 1 line of dialogue in the entire movie, or a man crawling around the streets of Berlin in a dog leech for 1 hour, THAT'S art house. And trust me, such a film would never win BP at the Oscar's.

What I really think will happen though, it won't be that much of a change in terms what movie wins, actually. There are still going to be front-runners which will have many nominations in the major categories. Those are still the movies that will have the greatest chance to win. People will start to pay more attention to the subcategories as well. Sure, movie "x" might have a BP nomination, and maybe even got some technical noms, but it was not nominated for acting, editing, cinematography etc.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You're probably right about Iron Man, it's a reach.

That 10.1% scenario is probably going to make things a lot more unpredictable for analysts and those who like to talk about the Oscars, as us. I don't mind that though (it gives us more to talk about!). :)

A wider field of BP nominees gives less chance of a obvious nomination snubs, and that is what annoys mainstream movie goers more than anything else. I think most people can understand a movie like slumdog millionaire winning BP, what they don't understand is why a movie like Dark Knight and Wall-E are not nominated for best picture at ALL. And I can sort of agree with them.

Also, personally not too worried about art house. I leave that to Jedi Master Carr. :p He seems to think Babel is art house, and I don't think it's even close. I define it completely different. If you ask me, when you have 1 line of dialogue in the entire movie, or a man crawling around the streets of Berlin in a dog leech for 1 hour, THAT'S art house. And trust me, such a film would never win BP at the Oscar's.

What I really think will happen though, it won't be that much of a change in terms what movie wins, actually. There are still going to be front-runners which will have many nominations in the major categories. Those are still the movies that will have the greatest chance to win. People will start to pay more attention to the subcategories as well. Sure, movie "x" might have a BP nomination, and maybe even got some technical noms, but it was not nominated for acting, editing, cinematography etc.
LOL I just didn't get Babel.