Box Office Contest Summer 2009 Week 4 Due 10PM PST on Thursday

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are last weekend's numbers
1 N Angels & Demons Sony $46,204,168
2 1 Star Trek Par. $43,034,547
3 2 X-Men Origins: Wolverine Fox $14,702,425
4 3 Ghosts of Girlfriends Past $6,653,384
5 4 Obsessed SGem $4,588,973

Two new releases
Terminator 4 on Thursday
Night at the Museum 2 on Friday

The deadline has to be on Thursday because of Terminator and since the order between it and NATM 2 could be very close.
Remember T4- 5 day everything else 4day, and the points are doubled.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I forgot about Dance Flick coming out on Friday as well, although it looks horrible.

[Crusader]

This week the big question is: How good is Bale without Ledger?
I can see this movie make as much money as the new Star Trek or X-Men flick but I am not sure how much T3 is going to affect this movie or if it is going to be affected at all. On the other hand this is a long weekend and this means that family flicks will make some good money but I doubt that they will share the same audience that salvation is going to get. I will have to do some good research on this matter because I want those double points.
I was fifth last year so this year I want more :D

[Lilaena De'Ville]

How good is Bale without Ledger? Have you seen any of the man's movies? O_o Bale is a movie star in his own right and I doubt there's any question about that in anyone's minds.

[Crusader]

I know but does the rest of the world know that?
I see this weekend this way:
We have the big 3 audiences this weekend:
Action/Popcorn-Flick Lovers: mostly male between 17 and 45
Families after all it is a long weekend so I expect a lot of them to see a movie
and then we have the Dumb: Responsible for the fact that the Weinstein Company is still allowed to make films that suck so hard that they can get a golf ball through a garden hose.

In other words each of the three releases will take a lot of money out of American pockets.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I'm pretty sure Terminator will come out #1, since it'll draw a big female crowd too, I predict. And kids, though I hope none of them are in the showing I go to.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know I have little faith in it with the horrid MCG directing it. That man shouldn't be allowed to direct movies. He needs to go back to music videos where he belongs. The reviews have been horrible. I think kids and families will go to NATM 2. Don't forget that the first one made almost 260 a few years ago. T4 could come out on top because it has an extra day.

[Crusader]

I'm pretty sure Terminator will come out #1, since it'll draw a big female crowd too, I predict. And kids, though I hope none of them are in the showing I go to.
Aren't you pregnant right now? So in theory you are bringing at least one unfinished kid with you anyway....ROFL the acronym PG just got a completly new meaning for me...OK have fun watching this movie this week.
Terminator will come out in June overhere so I can only base my prediction on reviews and WOM.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Have till the end of the night to make predictions.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Terminator 4 86.75
2 Night of the Museum 2 81.22
3 Star Trek 28.75
4 Angels and Demons 26.33
5 Dance Flick 18.11

[Crusader]

1 Terminator 4 74.35
2 Night of the Museum 2 68.9
3 Star Trek 29.31
4 Angels and Demons 22.75
5 Dance Flick 17.54

[Lilaena De'Ville]

1 Terminator 4 $91.84 M
2 Night of the Museum 2 $69.84 M
3 Star Trek $27.91 M
4 Angels and Demons $24.22 M
5 Dance Flick $16.98 M

[Yog]

1. Terminator IV: $75.55
2. Night at the Museum II: $64.67M
3. Star Trek: $32.22M
4. Angels & Demons: $25.12M
5. Dance Flick: $14.66M

[Lykaios]

Yes!

I didn't forget to put in my picks this weekend

1 Terminator Salvation $93.75
2 Night at the Museum 2 $85.23
3 Angels & Demons $23.65
4 Star Trek $21.33
5 Dance Flick $13.13

[Ryan Pode]

1. Terminator IV: $87.67
2. Night at the Museum II: $59.99M
3. Star Trek: $36.89M
4. Angels & Demons: $27.87M
5. Dance Flick: $13.23M

[Xavier Synik]

1. Terminator IV: $92.21M
2. Night at the Museum II: $54.34M
3. Star Trek: $36.73M
4. Angels & Demons: $25.63M
5. Wolverine: $10.23M

[Liam Jinn]

1. Terminator IV: $73.25 M
2. Night at the Museum II: $62.32 M
3. Star Trek: $26.11 M
4. Angels & Demons: $23.93 M
5. Dance Flick: $16.47 M

[CMJ]

1. Terminator Salvation 87.93M
2. Night at the Museum Smithsonian 66.84M
3. Star Trek 34.56M
4. Angels and Demons 25.15M
5. Dance Flick 12.23M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Looks like I should have went with my gut
1. TERMINATOR SALVATION WARNER BROS. 3,480 13,375,000 3,843 n/a 13,375,000
2. STAR TREK PARAMOUNT 3,860 2,985,000 773 -47% 161,638,970
3. ANGELS & DEMONS SONY 3,527 2,615,000 741 n/a 60,106,814
4. X-MEN ORIGINS: WOLVERINE FOX 3,892 815,000 209 -52% 155,257,700
5. GHOSTS OF GIRLFRIENDS PAST WARNER BROS. 3,150 550,000 175 -30% 42,142,958
T4 will do 70 million at the most for the 5 days. NATM 2 should beat that in 4, I think.

[Yog]

Well, I've been sceptic to T4's box office potential the whole time, because of T3. It really killed the franchise. Even the high budget special effects, intense marketing and Christian Bale can't get people lining around the block the way they would if the previous movie was succesful. Christian Bale saved the Batman franchise, but Batman Begins still only made 205M, which is what I am guessing this will make at most. A 250M gross, let alone a 300M one was never in the cards for T4.

Oh yeah, and from what I hear, T4 is not as good as we all hoped it would be either. Check those reviews at rotten tomatoes! Even with the B+ yahoo rating, I feel it won't have as good legs as Star Trek for example.

Edit: I am not convinced NATM2 will beat T4's opening btw (although, it is a little unfair to compare 4 days with 5 days), but I guess we'll see. It looks like a funny movie.

[Rutabaga]

I've put my review in the actual thread about the movie here, plus I've also posted a short review on my MySpace blog.

In a nutshell...not a terrible disaster, but not at all good either. If you're okay with a generic dumb and occasionally dull action movie that happens to have the word "Terminator" slapped on it, then you'll probably enjoy it. But if you're looking for an actual Terminator movie that could add something substantial to the mythos...eh, not so much. Waiting for DVD is perfectly safe, as far as I'm concerned.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well, I've been sceptic to T4's box office potential the whole time, because of T3. It really killed the franchise. Even the high budget special effects, intense marketing and Christian Bale can't get people lining around the block the way they would if the previous movie was succesful. Christian Bale saved the Batman franchise, but Batman Begins still only made 205M, which is what I am guessing this will make at most. A 250M gross, let alone a 300M one was never in the cards for T4.

Oh yeah, and from what I hear, T4 is not as good as we all hoped it would be either. Check those reviews at rotten tomatoes! Even with the B+ yahoo rating, I feel it won't have as good legs as Star Trek for example.

Edit: I am not convinced NATM2 will beat T4's opening btw (although, it is a little unfair to compare 4 days with 5 days), but I guess we'll see. It looks like a funny movie.
Well if it beats it in 4 that either makes NATM 2 look great or T4 look horrible.

[Yog]

Any number above 60M for NATM2 makes it look great, regardless of what T4 makes. It is just not the genre for huge openings.

I'll also add, I think it would do better with a december release, because it is a perfect family / christmas movie.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I took my nephew to see it and it was sold out so that could be a sign. A lot of kids there, also it does have a patriotic theme to it since it is set in D.C. I could see it doing very well.

[Rutabaga]

My parents and I are going to see it Sunday. We'll probably be the oldest farts in the theater, but that's okay. :lol

[Crusader]

I still ask myself why people did not like T3. The movie was great in achieving something that many sequels do not even consider: T3 never tries to be better than T2 and it is doing a hell of a great job by doing so.
It just tells the story of the last few days before judgement day and it shows us that our future and destiny is inevitable. Certainly this stands in contrast to T2's make your own fate philosophy but it is not so far away from T1's message.

[Jedi Master Carr]

My parents and I are going to see it Sunday. We'll probably be the oldest farts in the theater, but that's okay. :lol

LOL perhaps not. The second biggest group after 7-12 year olds in my theater was Senior Citizens. I say there were at least 20 people over 55 in the theater.

[Rutabaga]

My parents and I are going to see it Sunday. We'll probably be the oldest farts in the theater, but that's okay. :lol

LOL perhaps not. The second biggest group after 7-12 year olds in my theater was Senior Citizens. I say there were at least 20 people over 55 in the theater.

Okay, then maybe we won't feel quite so lonely :lol. Just hope those young whippersnappers behave themselves! :shakefist

I just happened to look at BO Mojo for Friday estimates, and I see NATM actually beat T4. It will be interesting to see what happens at the end of the weekend. And I do believe that T4 won't have great legs, because it simply will not have the enthusiastically positive WOM that Star Trek has had.

[Crusader]

I think we failed big time this week!

WEEKEND ESTIMATES
1. Night at the Museum II $70,000,000
2. Terminator Salvation $53,825,000
3. Star Trek $29,400,000

[Crusader]

Ok so far it looks like Lilaenna strikes again and gets the first spot.
Liam should get the second one and my trust in the trek will give me the third spot.
I can't wait for the actual data!

[Yog]

I will submit next week's picks real early since I am in Venice, Italy, and it is a nightmare to find Internet cafees, so I don't feel like risking it. I'll be back on saturday. If someone could copy and paste these predictions to next week's thread, I would appreciate it.

Week 5
1. Up - 55.78M
2. Night at the Museum 2 - 28.67M
3. Terminator 4 - 21.67M
4. Drag me to hell - 16.66M
5. Star Trek - 11.01M

[Crusader]

Weekend actualls from boxofficemojo

1 N Night at the Museum 2 Fox - $70,052,004 Lilaena
2 N Terminator Salvation WB --- $65,316,217 Liam Jinn (not close but closest)
3 2 Star Trek Par -------------- $29,380,384 Crusader
4 1 Angels & Demons Sony ----- $27,413,992 Jedi Master Carr finally got the right vibes for this movie
5 N Dance Flick Par ------------ $12,622,450 CMJ

[Xavier Synik]

I got schooled...

Took a chance on Dance Flick since didn't think it was going to get much play (see Next Day Air) but I was wrong... :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

Winner of Movie 1: Lilaena De'Ville
Winner of Movie 2: Liam Jinn
Winner of Movie 3: Crusader
Winner of Movie 4: Jedi Master Carr
Winner of Movie 5: CMJ

Weekend Totals
Lilaena De'Ville 80
Yog 30
Crusader 60
Liam Jinn 70
Jedi Master Carr 50
CMJ 40
Ryan Pode 30
Xavier Synik 20
Lykaios 10

Contest Totals
Lilaena De'Ville 175
Yog 150
Crusader 150
CMJ 145
Liam Jinn 135
Xavier Synik 115
Jedi Master Carr 105
Ryan Pode 60
Lykaios 15

Lileana topped Yog so far with a great weekend. The Race though got a lot closer.

[CMJ]

I keep moving down....

[Lilaena De'Ville]

WOOT! :dance

That's fantastic. I was waaaaaaaaaaaaaay off on TS though. :lol

[Crusader]

Wow some of us really benefited from the double score weekend. This year will be one hell of a race for the top if it stays intresting like this.

[Jedi Master Carr]

We have a few more double point weekends so things should be interesting. I screwed up. I was leaning to picking NATM 2 first. I would have had 70 points this weekend if I had done that.

[Crusader]

This movie summer is so horrible mediocre that it really makes this game exciting.

Don't get me wrong: The new Trek was not mediocre! But I miss the really big summer blockbuster that makes me excited for days.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This movie summer is so horrible mediocre that it really makes this game exciting.

Don't get me wrong: The new Trek was not mediocre! But I miss the really big summer blockbuster that makes me excited for days.

Well wait for July, you have Transformers 2, Public Enemies, Ice Age 3, and Harry Potter all coming out. Between The last weekend of June to the end of July should get really exciting.

[Crusader]

None of these movies make me really excited. In fact I watched most of the predecessors of these movies from my HD.
I am still waiting for a surprise hit like Pirates of the Caribean in 2003. The first time I saw the teaser for this flick I knew it was going to rock although many were scepticle.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't really see a major surprise although I think Public Enemies could top 200 million because of Depp. Beyond that you are looking at two 300 million dollar films in Transformers 2 and Half Blood Prince. And a couple of films in the 150-200 range like Ice Age 3, Up, Gi Joe, and maybe Land of the Lost.