View Full Version : Swine Flu - Pandemic?
Ann R. Key
Apr 28th, 2009, 10:11:17 PM
Well, I hope you haven't been kissing any pigs lately. But in case you have, stay away!
What is Swine Flu?
Swine Influenza (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm) (swine flu) is a respiratory disease of pigs caused by type A influenza virus that regularly causes outbreaks of influenza in pigs. Swine flu viruses cause high levels of illness and low death rates in pigs. Swine influenza viruses may circulate among swine throughout the year, but most outbreaks occur during the late fall and winter months similar to outbreaks in humans. The classical swine flu virus (an influenza type A H1N1 virus) was first isolated from a pig in 1930.
What are the symptoms of swine flu in humans?
The symptoms of swine flu in people are expected to be similar to the symptoms of regular human seasonal influenza (http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/symptoms.htm) and include fever, lethargy, lack of appetite and coughing. Some people with swine flu also have reported runny nose, sore throat, nausea, vomiting and diarrhea.
Pandemic Alert Level 4?
Phase 4 (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html) is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.
In English?
Swine Flu is verified human to human transmission, which means you don't have to kiss a pig, you just have to breathe the same air as someone who has. Or.. you know, whatever.
Is it ok to eat pork?
As long as you cook it properly, you cannot catch the swine flu from pork (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/29/business/economy/29trade.html). So says the pork industry. I say, it may be time to eat kosher. ;)
Important Links?
CDC site - Swine Flu (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/)
H1N1 Swine Flu Outbreaks on Google Maps (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&t=p&msa=0&msid=106484775090296685271.0004681a37b713f6b5950&ll=32.639375,-110.390625&spn=15.738151,25.488281&z=5)Any questions? :p
Tear
Apr 29th, 2009, 01:19:24 AM
Any questions? :p
Where do babies come from?;)
Darth Turbogeek
Apr 29th, 2009, 01:53:34 AM
You're all gonna die.
Dasquian Belargic
Apr 29th, 2009, 05:21:11 AM
Google Maps has a Outbreak Map (http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&source=embed&msa=0&msid=109496610648025582911.0004686892fbefe515012&ll=53.14677,0.878906&spn=10.248613,19.775391&z=6) that is pretty interesting, for tracking where this is going and how much of an affect it's having.
J'ktal Anajii
Apr 29th, 2009, 07:08:11 AM
Strangely enough, the medicine given to beat this strain of the flu virus is.... the exact same medicine used to treat the regular flu virus. Thanaflu.
Ryan Pode
Apr 29th, 2009, 07:25:15 AM
Bear in mind, 10,000 people have died from normal flu in 2009, in the US. To 1 from the pig flu.
Droo
Apr 29th, 2009, 08:48:15 AM
Bear in mind, 10,000 people have died from normal flu in 2009, in the US. To 1 from the pig flu.
Yes, but that's out of how many millions who have regular flu compared to the small pocket of folk contracting this swine flu. I'm guessing the death ratio of those infected with swine flu is higher, presently at least.
Mandy with an I
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:38:05 AM
Apparently Ontario is all ready for this because of SARS. All of the ways to NOT catch it are common sense unless you're a disgusting pig with no manners. I'm a germaphobe so this is going to make work so much more fun! :|
Dasquian Belargic
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:42:26 AM
If you just have to breath the same air as someone who has swine flu, I don't think you have to be a disgusting pig just to catch it :lol
Khendon Sevon
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:44:21 AM
Seriously?
Seriously!
SERIOUSLY!?
The black plague was a pandemic.
The red death was a pandemic.
This is not a pandemic.
What is it? It's something to make people watch the news.
Way to go commercialization of media. Don't report on important things like conflicts around the globe, human rights, technological breakthroughs, or anything that's actually important.
Dasquian Belargic
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:55:03 AM
Well, it does fit the necessary 'requirements' for being a pandemic. The difference is, I suppose, that in the time of the black death medical conditions were significantly different.
I don't know about your local/national media outlets, but the BBC is reporting other things in addition to this. Then again, a virus that is spreading throughout the world and killing people is pretty newsworthy.
Nathanial K'cansce
Apr 29th, 2009, 10:23:24 AM
The next town over apparently has two college aged students under quarantine for possible swine-flu. They went to Mexico for spring break, now have flu like symptoms, and are under the Q. I have a feeling this is going to make about the same kind of ruckus as avian flu.
Mandy with an I
Apr 29th, 2009, 10:36:47 AM
If you just have to breath the same air as someone who has swine flu, I don't think you have to be a disgusting pig just to catch it :lol
Yeah, but it's also a matter of washing hands, covering your mouth when you cough or sneeze. AND, if you're sick, stay the hell home. Common sense things. I just hate germs, so maybe I notice it more when people don't do these things (Mostly because it makes me fucking cringe and feel compelled to wash my hands).
It's all over the news here, which is only going to work people into a panic. SARS was a HUGE deal, so much so that they (IIRC) had a big concert for it, and although it did kill people, it was elderly people and people with bad immune systems who died. Last night on the news, they made a big deal because the number of cases "more than doubled"...going from 6 to 13! OMG! |I
Aurelias Kazaar
Apr 29th, 2009, 12:09:00 PM
http://www.smh.com.au/world/only-7-swine-flu-deaths-not-152-says-who-20090429-aml1.html
Seven deaths in Mexico not 150-something. According to the WHO.
J'ktal Anajii
Apr 29th, 2009, 04:07:25 PM
The one death in the US was a boy who had traveled with his family ONLY DAYS EARLIER from Mexico.
Still counts as a Mexico death to me, only it happened on our side of the fence.
Darth Turbogeek
Apr 29th, 2009, 06:07:50 PM
Bear in mind, 10,000 people have died from normal flu in 2009, in the US. To 1 from the pig flu.
Yes, but that's out of how many millions who have regular flu compared to the small pocket of folk contracting this swine flu. I'm guessing the death ratio of those infected with swine flu is higher, presently at least.
No actually it's not. The death rate is barely a tick up - and there is clearly something else involved with the Mexico deaths as the strain - which is exactly the same in all cases around the world - is clearly NOT lethal in the 2 - 5 % range that marks say 1918 as more lethal. Likely that the sheer pollution levels and other enviromental factors that weaken the body defences was also in play because so far it shows no sign of beign especially lethal
A normal influenza has a death rate of 0.2 to 0.5%.
1918 also had this charming effect on the young healthy adults -
http://www.fluwikie.com/index.php?n=Science.PrimerCytokineStorm
That is not being seen.
And yes, influenza regularly kills up to quarter million per year around the world, 35,000 in the the USA alone.
Now however, as much as this is not actualyl too much to be worried about it does bear in mind that the new strain involved does in fact have real potential to be problematic. While it is treatable, the big problem is that it is not just out of season, it has a much better infection rate and thence has a much better chance of being caught. This will have the effect of causing a lot of pressure on the health system - and it will be that pressure that will be the detirminant if there is widespread death of the at risk. While the hospitals cope, you're all good. When they cant.... that's a problem as people wont be able to be treated and then the death rate will go up.
The next area that is the worry is that it is acting exactly like 1918's outbreak. To begin with, 1918 was in fact very mild in it's first sweep around the world. When it exploded in Europe for it's second pass, it had mutated and away it went. When this strain gets to China, that's when you do need to be watching. If it exhibits the same second pass lethality of 1918, that's what the real concern is and all indications are that it's a prime candidate to do it.
Then again, a virus that is spreading throughout the world and killing people is pretty newsworthy.
Heard much about AIDS lately? That's in fact a true pandemic and killing 3 million a year and growing.
So to sum up.... not much to be truly concerned about but it's not just a media beat up either. This one has the real chance to be like 1968's pandemic. But it wont be 1918, not unless cytokine storms happen. At which point panic like crazy because that's the one that can really kill quite effectively the age group that posts here.
CMJ
Apr 29th, 2009, 06:19:32 PM
Turbogeek basically posted what I was gonna say. I'm not too concerned yet, but I'm warily watching this. Anytime a new strain of something like this works its way across the world you have to stay vigilant.
I agree that maybe the news is reporting a bit too much about worst case...doomsday scenarios, this threat isn't unfounded. One day a major influenze pandemic will come again(hopefully many years from now). It's like reading about "the big one" in California. Read about it, know it's coming...stay vigilant...but you can't let it run your life.
At least I don't.
But eventually the big one will occur....and another major pandemic will pop up.
Lykaios
Apr 29th, 2009, 06:48:53 PM
It is a pandemic. The term pandemic doesn't refer to the mortality of any one disease but to the scale of its reach.
Droo
Apr 29th, 2009, 06:58:15 PM
I'm finding myself in agreement with what is being said here about its overplayed severity, simply because the numbers that have been popping up in the news about the number of deaths to the number of confirmed cases are all over the place. Also, we have to take into account that Mexico, being the birthplace of this new strand of flu, wasn't as well-prepared as the rest of the world was to combat its effects and consequently, the situation got worse and some people have died. Also, as Mark stated there's environmental issues to take into account and I doubt they have as solid a health service outside of major cities either, only adding tot he problem.
I wouldn't advocate complacency with a matter such as this, and the comparison with AIDS is somewhat askew, since first of all it isn't an airborne virus and secondly, it's nothing new and it's not like it's gone undocumented. Not that I wish to sound dismissive of it, of course not, but in terms of what demands immediate news coverage, the ongoing AIDS epidemic/pandemic/tragedy/whatever you want to call it, simply doesn't take priority over a new strand of rapidly spreading flu which has already resulted in fatalities. I get the feeling I'm stating the obvious here anyway but there you have it.
Darth Turbogeek
Apr 29th, 2009, 07:01:28 PM
It is a pandemic. The term pandemic doesn't refer to the mortality of any one disease but to the scale of its reach.
It's not yet a pandemic (It's a level 5 alert, AIDS is IIRC the only actual declared pandemic at present), altho your point about morbility rates is 100% correct.
Rutabaga
Apr 29th, 2009, 08:02:05 PM
I'm a nurse, and a lot of my co-workers and I are not happy with how the media has been completely overhyping this and basically terrorizing people. It's all a function of these 24-hour news outlets that need to fill those 24 hours, combined with the fact that going "BOO!!!!" to people seems to be very effective. It's happened with SARS, the avian flu, West Nile Virus, and other similar things...it's just irresponsible and not productive at all. I'm not saying that the stories shouldn't be reported, and I'm not saying that people should ignore the common sense warnings that have been issued (the same damn common sense warnings that everyone should be adhering to every damn year during flu season), but c'mon, people, we're not about to have The Stand become reality.
Something like 35,000 people die every year during flu season, and nobody bats an eyelash over that. So people simply do not have to be going swine flu crazy like they have been over the last few days. :grumble
Darth Turbogeek
Apr 29th, 2009, 08:08:32 PM
Something like 35,000 people die every year during flu season, and nobody bats an eyelash over that. So people simply do not have to be going swine flu crazy like they have been over the last few days. :grumble
The irony in all this for me is that I actually DO have the flu right now :)
You should see people jump when I have to cough!
Rutabaga
Apr 29th, 2009, 08:34:33 PM
Something like 35,000 people die every year during flu season, and nobody bats an eyelash over that. So people simply do not have to be going swine flu crazy like they have been over the last few days. :grumble
The irony in all this for me is that I actually DO have the flu right now :)
You should see people jump when I have to cough!
A lot of people at work, including me, have been sick with the flu the last week or so, all with the same symptoms (sore throat, fever, congestion, etc.). Most of us who are in the recovery stage have been left with a nagging cough...it's like a symphony sometimes! :lol
Hobgoblin
Apr 29th, 2009, 08:36:26 PM
The irony in all this for me is that I actually DO have the flu right now :)
You should see people jump when I have to cough!
That's not new. You've obviously been sick in the head for years! Bwahahahaha!
I learned after SARS that stuff like this tends to be overhyped. I started cracking on people who were flu-phobes by going "COULD BE SARS OR ANTHRAX" until my merciless needling got them over it.
Sasseeri Reeouurra
Apr 29th, 2009, 08:47:22 PM
Actually I think levels 5 and 6 are both considered pandemic levels. I did research on the CDC website after all. ;)
Darth Turbogeek
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:00:10 PM
Actually I think levels 5 and 6 are both considered pandemic levels. I did research on the CDC website after all. ;)
No. Stage five is still potential to be pandemic, not actually one. Stage 6 is actual pandemic
CMJ
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:12:22 PM
SARS actually had the alot of early signs that pointed towards it potentially being quite bad. Those Cytokine Storms that Turbo referenced were seen in early cases of the illness.
I actually think we caught a big break when that one died out.
Darth Turbogeek
Apr 29th, 2009, 09:38:33 PM
SARS actually had the alot of early signs that pointed towards it potentially being quite bad. Those Cytokine Storms that Turbo referenced were seen in early cases of the illness.
I actually think we caught a big break when that one died out.
SARS turned out to be too difficult to catch thankfully. That's also the savign grace with Avian flu, it didnt get into the lungs readily - when it's a deep lung infection it's VERY bad news. However that's very difficult to do as you need to be inhaling very deeply for sustained time to introduce the virus deep enough.
Of course, Mexican flu is proving to be much better at transmision.
Peter McCoy
Apr 30th, 2009, 04:46:29 AM
My mum, dad and little sister returned from mexico on Tuesday morning. My mum got a call from the school where she works (as a cleaner) and was told not to come in until she had been to visit her GP and gotten a sort of 'all-clear' note. She gave that note into school yesterday after seeing our doctor, and the school said it was unacceptable and sent her home. They said she would not be getting paid.
The local Health authorities called her today and she explained the situation. They'd already spoken with our GP and their opinion on the matter was that the school was bang out of order and they would be calling the Headmaster to basically bollock him over it.
As I type this the phone's just rang - it could well be the school or the local Health guys.
My dad was given the go-ahead for work but he decided to take a week off because he knows that the guys he works with will be in the office behind his back asking the boss why the hell he's in and he can't be bothered with all that crap.
Similarly, my little sister is fine and our Doc gave her the all-clear. But after speaking with her schools headmistress on the phone, she's staying off. She basically advised my mum to keep her off another week because you know what kids are like - the teasing and name-calling would have been quite upsetting.
Meanwhile I'm living in the same house as the buggers and I've gotta go into work! No chance of our HR department sending me home with pay. You've gotta be declared dead before they allow you any time off, and even then they'd want a back-to-work interview for an inquisition!
Peter McCoy
Apr 30th, 2009, 05:12:37 AM
It was the Health. The guy had spoken to the Headmaster and said that my mum must return to work immediately, they have no right to disrupt her everyday life. Her boss also called her to let her know and my mum has asked for an apology from the Head. They basically called her into a room yesterday, on her own, in front of the school board. She had no other representative with her.
If that had been me I'd have walked out and said 'call me back in when there's a union rep for me to talk with first'. I'm not sure how it works in the US or anywhere else, but in the UK you're entitled to consultation in such matter and have the right to be accompanied by someone of your choosing - either a union rep or co-worker. I remember when I worked in Somerfield and I had an absence review and asked for my co-worker and out-of-work friend David to accompany me. The manager denied this so I got up and walked out. She re-scheduled, and allowed it, since she was breaking trhe rules denying me it in the first place.
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