2008 Election Thread IV - Vote early, vote often

[Cat X]

Thread III - http://75.126.43.122/forum/showthread.php?t=18543&page=25

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

EARLY VOTING STATS

And here we go for the final stretch finally - the long road is nearly over. We're here and it's election time with early voting now on.

Remeber, you vote. The machine decides.

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[Yog]

Only 7 days to go!

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Edit: similar video (http://vimeo.com/1891426?diggtoolbar) :)

[Cat X]

^^^^ No lover of rap, but that's great!

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/10/27/phony-va-election-flier/

Bump this thread every time the Republicans do something stupid or disgusting

[Yog]

I think Matt Drudge finally lost it. :lol

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/drudge1.jpg

[Mandy with an I]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v484/mneh/WTFever/20081027wrongonbatman.png

[Sanis Prent]

Okay, remind me to absentee vote on Thursday plz. It's the last day I can, and since I can't make it to my precinct on election day proper, I need to get this done.

Not that my Obama vote is going to pitch Alabama, we're way too in the red, but I'm hell-bent on my protest vote :)

[Mandy with an I]

We've already had our election. I love throwing my vote away - NDP never wins :x

[Jedi Master Carr]

That Nazi thing is scary because it is only a stones drop from where I am. They could have picked my campus to try this little shoot out. Thank god somebody caught on to them. I don't think they had any chance of getting near Obama.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Yeah, Yog and Mark, make sure you cast your votes. ;)

[Cat X]

I've been registered twice to vote by ACORN in Nevada and Colorado as Pepe Le Peau, a fine upstanding Mexican of dubious French decent and a ridiculous accent ready to do my patriotic duty.

(Pssst Mr Obama, how much pesos you pay me again?)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I knew it!

[Yog]

I've been registered twice to vote by ACORN in Nevada and Colorado as Pepe Le Peau, a fine upstanding Mexican of dubious French decent and a ridiculous accent ready to do my patriotic duty.

(Pssst Mr Obama, how much pesos you pay me again?)
The Communist Party of Norway salutes your efforts, Comrade! Our Global Conspiracy to spread Marxism-Leninism is shaping up nicely. My donation drive through third party Mexican connections is reaching record levels. Even more pesos than Hugo Chavez has! My buddy Castro tells me to say hello. :D

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[Cat X]

http://www.salon.com/opinion/kamiya/2008/10/28/gop_shipwreck/

Is there a trainwreck for the GOP coming?

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/28/4152/9379/499/644273

When Arizona is seriously in play, then yes there is.

Coming from the Australian experience last year when Howard was given his marching orders, what we have here is onimously close to what we saw. A new leader of the moderates in Kevin Rudd appeared, a honeymoon, some blowback, then a long protracted campaign that lead to a fairly heavy defeat for conservatives. And some very remarkable similarities.

1) Polling

While the Republicans enjoyed a surge after their convention and the Palin stunt pick, polling has been remarkably steady otherwise. It shows a 6 - 8 point lead by Obama and it has never really changed other than statisical noise. The Australian election showed a similar steadyness of polling, that suggested voters had made up their minds early and nothing could change it.

2) Economic bad news.

Three weeks to go in our election, interest rates went up. That basically sealed the deal. On September 15, the markets crashed. Obama's lead has never been threatened since.

3) Onimous early voting patterns.

When voters are passionate about voting, then incumbents are in trouble. We had big early turnouts. And yes, voters really wanted to vote Howard out it turned out.

4) "You never saw it coming" losses

John Howard was the second ever PM to be voted out of his seat. The PM's seat is usually the safest in the country. Other unlikely seats were deep "red" but swung big and unseated some rather big names. While across Aust the swing was 5%, some seats swung 15-20%.

5) Party disunity before the election

This says it all. The Liberals (who are the conservative party here) were bickering and had knives out long before election day. They saw it coming. A divided party does not and will nto win an election.

6) "The COMMIES ARE COMING!!!!"

Funny thing is, some of the Labor party politicans really are socialists. No one cares.

7) One party stayed on message.

When the Conservatives kept on pumping out conflicting hysterical statements and ads, this confuses voters. Labor stayed on message and disciplined.

Now the thing is, the local conservatives werent TOO bad at all. They were actualyl decent economic managers. They actullay were a good government for the most part. Except when they went too far and destroyed pay and conditions for workers in a idealogoy fuelled orgy of hubris. The Republicans on the other hand.... come on now, you cant tell me honestly Bush has been even close to passable.

So with a week to go, Obama isnt certain. But reading the signs...... to be honest I cant see any way the electorate is going to allow McCain to win. I suspect like Austrlaia it will be highly obvious very early the GOP will be in deep trouble.

So, feel brave. Pick a winner. Tell me EV's. Pick states that will go red/blue. And take a guess in Congress and Senate while your at it.

Me - Obama. EV 330ish (We need a calculator like 538 to work out states and stuff). Senate Dems get 59 and just miss supermajority.

[Cat X]

I'll double post with some more observations.....

While the national polls are stable, I think there's a trend that looking nationally is missing and why national polling should not count for much. The Presidency of course is decided by EV and they are decided state by state.

Now in relation to big swings in unexpected places, most state polls up to a month ago didn't really show this. You saw the expected places bouncing around within MOE and a few red states looking likely to fall. Up to there, that looks like the Aussie election. What ISNT the same is what I think the state polling is showing - a late violent swing. This is what is making what should be safe red states into swing states. And it's happening in unexpected places and with some ferocity in the swings. We shouldnt be lookign at polling in Montana showing it's close to a tossup. Or Arizona. Georgia is suddenly looking dangerously like a GOP loss if early polling trends work out.

You see things like that and it makes you go "What the.....?".

Another thing quite different to Aust is that we have mandatory voting. And very easy voting registrations. USA is all about GOTV... and we can already see Obama's campaign is actually doing that in staggering numbers. BIG advantages in early voting states with Democrat voters out in big numbers.

That's the two big X-Factors here...... And now back to your socialsit programming.

[Jedieb]

Wow, is that really a Drudge headline? If it is he really has lost it.

It looks like we may finally be seeing the inevitable tightening. The first 3 polls of the day have Obama's lead down to 6.2. Unfortunately for McCain, all 3 of the polls have Obama at 50 or 49 and he's still struggling to break the 45 barrier. He needed to knock it down to 5 a couple of weeks ago. The fact that Obama was able to push his average lead to 8 points over the weekend and bag a significant number of early votes is just killing McCain.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Our registering to vote system is so easy even dead people can do it! ;)

[Morgan Evanar]

Our registering to vote system is so easy even dead people can do it! ;)Pretty common here in South Florida. Then again, sometimes it's hard to tell the dead from the living. We could have a zombie outbreak and many would be hard pressed to notice, only the zombies would be asking for brains instead of beans.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

It looks like we may finally be seeing the inevitable tightening. The first 3 polls of the day have Obama's lead down to 6.2. Unfortunately for McCain, all 3 of the polls have Obama at 50 or 49 and he's still struggling to break the 45 barrier. He needed to knock it down to 5 a couple of weeks ago. The fact that Obama was able to push his average lead to 8 points over the weekend and bag a significant number of early votes is just killing McCain.

I would dispute there is "tightening". The main reason being that people who have voted are not counted in opinion polls or have a higher "Sorry, not answering your question kthxbye" or "Sorry, voted kthxbye" than usual. And so you have a statistical flutter. This does in this election tend to then undersample Democrats as they are coming out to vote now.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

With people who havent voted, yes it is tightening, but that's just because more Obama supporters have come out already and have voted.

Be that as it may, ignore the national polls. Looks at the state ones. But more importantly, track early voting - that's the real indicator because of course that's votes cast and can not be changed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl112

More "dont worry about national polls, look at state ones"

And Andrew Sullivan has something conservatives might want to ponder...

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/the-top-ten-rea.html

And hey while I'm at it, you know these SOCIALISTS!!! cries against Obama?

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/11/03/081103taco_talk_hertzberg

Funny, Palin actually does those dirty socialist things like spread the wealth around.

Yes, the Republicans yet again show off how they accuse Obama of one thing and yet do it themselves even more.

Dont be scared of socialism and liberals. Really. We dont run financial systems into the ground. We dont steal your money. we dont start unjust wars. We dont have abortion clinics on every corner. And hey, we also have far more of us in lefty countries who even pray to the Lord and call Jesus saviour.

[Rutabaga]

So Joe The Plumber Who Isn't Really A Plumber And Isn't Really Named Joe was apparently on the campaign trail with McCain today. And he said something so ridiculous that even Shepard Smith of Faux News couldn't handle it anymore.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/foxs-shepard-smith-forced_n_138674.html

[Sanis Prent]

the zombies would be asking for brains instead of beans.

Considering the jewban accent, both sound identical. The only true way to tell the living from the dead is that zombies vote for Pat Buchanan.

[Cat X]

So Joe The Plumber Who Isn't Really A Plumber And Isn't Really Named Joe was apparently on the campaign trail with McCain today. And he said something so ridiculous that even Shepard Smith of Faux News couldn't handle it anymore.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/foxs-shepard-smith-forced_n_138674.html

When you make Fox News do a double take and question your sanity, you just KNOW you have said something amazingly dumb.

[Jedieb]

The RCP gap has closed to 5.9. This is close to where I thought the final numbers would be. I don't expect an 8 point win, I expect one closer to 5. We'll see what happens as the day progresses. (I expect the day will end somewhere between 6-7pts.) What I find comforting is that despite things tightening, you still see Obama at 50%. And his Battleground advantage is simply overwhelming. Without a Penn. MIRACLE McCain has little chance of pulling this out. Hell, even if he loses Penn. Obama still has several paths to 270.

[Jedieb]

Obama looks to end the day at 6.0 with RCP. That's a full point shaved in two days. I don't think it's that big of a deal. I think we're just seeing things get close to the 5-7 where the race will probably end up at. Now, I like being cautious and I'll play Devil's Advocate every once in awhile, but I saw something that's just ridiculous. One of the reasons I think O'Reilly is a buffoon is because he simply won't admit that he's a right wing partisan. If he were more honest, he wouldn't be so insufferable. His claims of being an Independent that's looking out for the Little Guy are ridiculous. Drudge has been trying to play with numbers to show it's a neck and neck race, well now Bill-O is at it as well. Here's his electoral map;

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/10/29/oreillymap_2.jpg

Wow, that's a serious case of denial.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

What are the grey ones? I don't really see Oregon as on the fence, though if the people who don't live in Portland vote in numbers it might go McCain's way. But it probably won't.

[Cat X]

Obama looks to end the day at 6.0 with RCP. That's a full point shaved in two days. I don't think it's that big of a deal. I think we're just seeing things get close to the 5-7 where the race will probably end up at. Now, I like being cautious and I'll play Devil's Advocate every once in awhile, but I saw something that's just ridiculous. One of the reasons I think O'Reilly is a buffoon is because he simply won't admit that he's a right wing partisan. If he were more honest, he wouldn't be so insufferable. His claims of being an Independent that's looking out for the Little Guy are ridiculous. Drudge has been trying to play with numbers to show it's a neck and neck race, well now Bill-O is at it as well. Here's his electoral map;
Wow, that's a serious case of denial.

Penn polls



<code>Quinnipiac Obama 53, McCain 41 Obama +12
Associated Press/GfK Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Franklin & Marshall Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13</code>
Other state polls



<code>Colorado Obama 50, McCain 41 Obama +9
Nevada Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
New Hampshire Obama 55, McCain 37 Obama +18
North Carolina Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
Florida Obama 45, McCain 43 Obama +2
Ohio Obama 48, McCain 41 Obama +7
Virginia Obama 49, Mccain 42 Obama +7</code>
Asn much as SOME national polls show a very mild tightening, the state polls dont. Pennn is LONG gone as a possible McCain pickup


What are the grey ones? I don't really see Oregon as on the fence, though if the people who don't live in Portland vote in numbers it might go McCain's way. But it probably won't.

No serious pollster is even considerign any possiblity of Oregon going red. It's +14 Obama on all poll averages. And there is this from 538

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-oregon-turnout-is-down-but.html

[Jedieb]

The grey states are ones that O'Reilly considers toss ups. The problem is that he's got waaay too many toss ups. Some of these "toss ups" are states that Obama has a double digit lead! (Penn. 11pts, MN 11 pts, MI 18pts, etc. I mean, I could go on but it would take awhile. And if I listed states where Obama leads by 6-10 pts I could be up all night. The fact is, most electoral sites have Obama at a lead of OVER 300 votes. For O'Reilly to have any kind of map with only 183 votes is just ridiculous.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So what do you make of the 30 minutes tonight? I think it should be interesting to see what he says. I think we will get a personal look at him.

[Cat X]

So what do you make of the 30 minutes tonight? I think it should be interesting to see what he says. I think we will get a personal look at him.

It will stop any late minute shift in support to McCain - Obama always does fantastically well when given that kind of opportunity to speak to the nation.

[Jedi Master Carr]

He did great I thought. I liked how he showed himself and made him seem like a normal person, but very smart man.

[Rutabaga]

This is a new web ad from the Obama campaign, and whoever created it should get a medal. It's short, very funny, and also gets an important message across.

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[Yog]

The 27 minute Obama ad. It's great :)

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[Mandy with an I]

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[Jaime Tomahawk]

The 27 minute Obama ad. It's great :)

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Brilliant. He basically sealed the deal.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27447282#27447282

The last good President introducing the next good President.

[Rossos Atrapes]

The 27 minute Obama ad. It's great :)

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Brilliant. He basically sealed the deal.

I agree; though perhaps not because this firmed my support of him in any way. This is a thirty minute television ad. Thirty Minutes. He's monopolizing the air-waves and keeping McCain from getting air-time except for his gaffes and Palin. No air-time means no publicity; people aren't thinking about McCain. People aren't getting answers from McCain, they continue to get this view of McCain from his opponent. If McCain can't defend himself, then how are the voters going to decide he's better than Obama? This is Obama and his team at their strategic and tactical finest. It has all the requisite scenes and stories, and all the requisite words and gestures.

What I think the most important aspect of this ad is, is the aspect that this ad was not geared to gain any more votes for himself (though it is obviously partly tooled to influence the last second voters), but to firm and solidify the lead he has already; he wants to keep McCain and the Republicans from airing anything that might grab the public's attention for even a moment. That is the brilliance of this ad, in my opinion.

[Rossos Atrapes]

My room-mate just sent me this. Hilarious! You can edit it to display anyone's name. The page itself also lends to the atmosphere with fake news links about my transgression<object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="360" height="300">. Edit #1: Something's up with this video... Edit #2: Okay...maybe not.
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[Rossos Atrapes]

<object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="360" height="300"> Double post. Sorry! :o Delete this, please!
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[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/30/more-battleground-numbers/

More state polls. There's a narrowing in the polls? Coulda fooled me.

[Rutabaga]

My room-mate just sent me this. Hilarious! You can edit it to display anyone's name. The page itself also lends to the atmosphere with fake news links about my transgression<object classid="clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000" width="360" height="300">. Edit #1: Something's up with this video... Edit #2: Okay...maybe not.
<embed flashvars="id=C736Kijg7CaHruF8.spv.DI4NjI1NjU-" src="http://s3.moveon.org/swf/embed.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" allowscriptaccess="always" width="360" height="300"></object>

I got that as well, and it's freakin' hilarious. I sent it on to a couple of friends to give them some giggles as well. Best part is definitely the older woman with the foul mouth that gets bleeped :lol.

[Jedieb]

The first 3 polls of the day have increased Obama's RCP average to 6.3. Anytime these numbers move up even a tenth of a point it's brutal for McCain because he's so far behind and has so little time left. He managed to shave off almost 2 points in 3 days, but that 8 pt lead was one he couldn't afford to begin with. All the data says we're heading towards a beat down on Tues. I just wish it would hurry up and get here.

Yesterday Palin tries to connect Obama to another radical. Too bad it's someone that McCain has connections to as well from his time in Congress. McCain should have read the writing on the wall days ago and called off the dogs. It's obviously not working and all he's doing is riling up his base. This base hated Clinton while he was in office and they did everything they could to wreck him. I think we're in for more of the same. Except this time it will probably be less effective because of all the GOP infighting. The Republicans are going to have to rebuild and the early front runner is Palin. That's a train wreck waiting to happen.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Also this radically is an academic. The guy is professor on the PLO. It is like me being a professor on Nazi Germany and being called a Nazi. There is some infighting going on between McCain and Palin. I think if they lose there will be some very public finger pointing afterwards.

[Morgan Evanar]

Hello welcome to Miami politics. We're not that far away from car bombings again.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-miami-rally-getting-ugly-down.html
McCain Miami Rally, Getting Ugly Down Here

Look in later today for our On the Road piece from Wilmington, North Carolina. We're a bit ahead of our coverage, which occasionally happens out here with the long distances, input, output and timing demands. Tonight we'll be at the Obama-Clinton rally in Kissimmee, Florida, and we're breaking in from Miami, where John McCain just concluded his "Joe the Plumber" rally at Everglades Lumber.

After the rally, we witnessed a near-street riot involving the exiting McCain crowd and two Cuban-American Obama supporters. Tony Garcia, 63, and Raul Sorando, 31, were suddenly surrounded by an angry mob. There is a moment in a crowd when something goes from mere yelling to a feeling of danger, and that's what we witnessed. As photographers and police raced to the scene, the crowd elevated from stable to fast-moving scrum, and the two men were surrounded on all sides as we raced to the circle.

The event maybe lasted a minute, two at the most, before police competently managed to hustle the two away from the scene and out of the danger zone. Only FiveThirtyEight tracked the two men down for comment, a quarter mile down the street.

"People were screaming 'Terrorist!' 'Communist!' 'Socialist!'" Sorando said when we caught up with him. "I had a guy tell me he was gonna kill me."

Asked what had precipitated the event, "We were just chanting 'Obama!' and holding our signs. That was it. And the crowd suddenly got crazy."

Garcia told us that the man who originally had warned the two it was his property when they had first tried to attend the rally with Obama T-shirts was one of the agitators. Coming up just before the scene started getting out of hand, the man whispered in Garcia's ear, "I'm gonna beat you up the next time I see you." Garcia described him for us: "a big stocky man wearing a tweed jacket." He used hand motions to emphasize this was a large guy. We went back to look for the gentleman twenty minutes after the incident but didn't find him.

The two Obama supporters had attempted to attend the event with tickets printed from the McCain website. Both were clad in Obama T-shirts, Sorando in a blue "Obama '08" shirt, and Garcia in a white "Obama-Biden" shirt. They were told that the event was being held on private property and that wearing the shirts or carrying the signs they would be asked to either remove the shirts or not attend.

For an hour during the rally, the two had stood across the street from the lumberyard on public property holding yard signs. Some drivers honked in support, and others honked in disapproval. When the rally ended and the crowd spilled out, the disturbance began.

Garcia had a message for his stocky, tweed-clad threatener. "You tell that guy he can find Tony Garcia down at the West Dade library every day from 7 to 7 helping people early vote. I'll be there from 1 to 5 on Saturday and Sunday. You tell him if he wants to kick my *** that's where he can find me. Come beat me up."

Not thirty seconds later, John McCain drove by in his SUV and waved at Garcia on the sidewalk, who was happily waving his Obama sign.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Yesterday Palin tries to connect Obama to another radical. Too bad it's someone that McCain has connections to as well from his time in Congress. McCain should have read the writing on the wall days ago and called off the dogs. It's obviously not working and all he's doing is riling up his base. This base hated Clinton while he was in office and they did everything they could to wreck him. I think we're in for more of the same. Except this time it will probably be less effective because of all the GOP infighting. The Republicans are going to have to rebuild and the early front runner is Palin. That's a train wreck waiting to happen.

It's just more blatant racism and scarmongering now. OMG DARK PEOPLE!!!!!

Anyone supporting that clueless woman needs a damn good slap to wake them up - she not qualifed to be mayor of Nowhere. Fortunatly for the senario of Palin "taking" over the party, wont happen. She might get a certain group up and going, but that group arent the power brokers. As much fun as it would be to see Palin drive the GOP into a wall at high speed, there's such a big group of moderates and power brokers that will just send her back to Alaska and never allow her to be heard again.

She's too much like Bush and frankly the GOP will be doing all it can to run away from Bush for a few years - ANYTHING that looks like Bush now is electoral poison. Do people really want THAT again?

[Charley]

I, the poster known as Charley, further known by aliases of Charley the Banker, Charley the Jew, Charley the Arms Dealer, and Charley the Chef, do invoke by profession of mouth and by mark upon absentee ballot this thirtieth day of October in the year of our Lord 2008 in the county of Tuscaloosa of the Yellowhammer state of Alabama my endorsement of one Barack Hussein Obama to the office of the Presidency of the United States of America. This invocation is carried forth in soundness of mind and spirit, and witnessed presently. A salaam alaykum, Senatus Populus Que Romanus, klaatu, barada, nikto.

[Jedieb]

I think you're underestimating her and the rabid support she's drawing. Look at the McCain rallies. Without Palin he doesn't draw decent crowds. I don't think it's a stretch to say that she could outdraw the top of the ticket in 9 out of 10 campaign stops. I don't think she'd win a drawn out primary, but she's going to be running and she's going to be in the mix. And when you own the religious wing of the RNC, you're a front runner. Huckabee will be battling her for that part of the RNC electorate. We'll have to wait and see if they knock each other out and let someone like Romney swoop on in.

It looks like Obama's RCP lead will end up at 5.9. So this is what's happened in the last 6 days;

Sat. 8.0
Sun. 7.6
Mon. 7.0
Tues. 6.7
Wed. 6.0
Thurs. 5.9

Unfortunately for McCain, the state of the Battlegrounds is such that all these national numbers mean is that his chances have gone up from around 3% to 4.3% at 538. His odds are markedly better at Intrade, they give him 16.9%. Whatever numbers you go with, McCain has a steep hill to climb.

[Cat X]

I think you're underestimating her and the rabid support she's drawing.

No, I'm not underestimating her. She quite frankly hasnt had the vettign even NOW that any job requires. She's got corruption investigations still ongoing and that rabid support? A vocal minority.

They are not the powerbrokers.

They are not the ones with the deep pockets

In 5 days the party will be out to find out what went wrong and they will rip her to shreds with the recriminations. So what if she fires up the Jeebus nuts? She's a big reason why the Independants ran screaming away. She does not have the intelligence, politial skills, wit or clean history to be able to survive a real political attack on her. Frankly, she's lucky that Obama's chosen to run a positive campaign because if she is the worst politican I have seen in a looooooong time.

No, she'll go back to Alaska and will be lucky to survive re-election for Governor.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think his numbers are going up mostly from the undecideds now. Obama isn't really losing much of his support. I think things are going to depend on turnout, the better that is the better it will be for Obama.

[Rutabaga]

I, the poster known as Charley, further known by aliases of Charley the Banker, Charley the Jew, Charley the Arms Dealer, and Charley the Chef, do invoke by profession of mouth and by mark upon absentee ballot this thirtieth day of October in the year of our Lord 2008 in the county of Tuscaloosa of the Yellowhammer state of Alabama my endorsement of one Barack Hussein Obama to the office of the Presidency of the United States of America. This invocation is carried forth in soundness of mind and spirit, and witnessed presently. A salaam alaykum, Senatus Populus Que Romanus, klaatu, barada, nikto.

Huzzah! :dance

Speaking of klaatu barada nikto....

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[Cat X]

^^^ NICE!

Narrowing in the polls?

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html

Hmmmmm...... maaaaaaybe. Just not in McCain's favor!

[Jedieb]

^^^ NICE!

Narrowing in the polls?

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html

Hmmmmm...... maaaaaaybe. Just not in McCain's favor!

Obama's chances of winning LA are around... 1%. That's a great poll to have fun with, but it can't be taken seriously. It's obviously an outlier. And I didn't pull the 1% out of the sky, those are 538's odds.

Young voters and newly registered voters, these two groups traditionally don't come out in strong numbers. Now, the good news for Obama is that if these 2 groups come out in the same numbers they did in 04 he's still in good shape. I don't see how there's any way they under perform. If they do come out in record numbers then we're going to see a blowout. Now, I caution those that are depending on this, this almost never happens. A good sign for Obama is that we did see increased turnouts in the primaries. If we see this again on Tuesday then many of these polls may have sold Obama short by a point or two.

A conservative group is bringing out the Wright ads. They've been airing them locally in battlegrounds like Ohio and Penn., they're buying national time for the last 5 days of the race.

Lord, can Tuesday get here any faster?

[Cat X]

^^^ NICE!

Narrowing in the polls?

http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl103008tppoll.1644da2c1.html

Hmmmmm...... maaaaaaybe. Just not in McCain's favor!

Obama's chances of winning LA are around... 1%. That's a great poll to have fun with, but it can't be taken seriously. It's obviously an outlier. And I didn't pull the 1% out of the sky, those are 538's odds.


That's what they said about Virginia, Arazona and Georgia a few weeks ago - and all three are quite clearly seriously up for grabs. Especially Georgia, clearly somethign big is happening there and polls suggestign that Georgia could swing blue were seen as outliers. However it is now clear Georgia is a very possible Democrat pickup.

And Arazona followed the same pattern. Polls that looked like for all money to be outliers but then follows showed it was in fact true. The Obama campaign are now seriously thinking about havign an Obama rally right smack bang in McCain territory. Two weeks ago, would you have thought that would be possible it to be an actual realisitc chance?

Yes it's likely an outlier. But who knows?

Bringing Wright up will just annoy voters. They dont want to hear that crap. Not now.

[Cat X]

Courstsey of Morgan...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E91WoyDhbqc

[Rutabaga]

Courstsey of Morgan...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E91WoyDhbqc

:lol :lol :lol

[Yog]

Ok, I have not posted much lately because I had too much fun playing Fallout 3. But here are some poll data and my predictions, both of which I hope you will find interesting.. :)


3 Week Averages
31.5 VT
29.7 NY
23.8 Illinois
23.0 Massachusetts
21.0 Connecticut
19.8 California
17.0 Delaware
16.6 NJ
16.3 Maine
16.0 WA
14.0 Michigan
13.5 OR
11.3 Iowa
11.0 PA
10.8 Minnesota
10.8 WI
10.1 NH
10.0 NM
7.3 VA
6.7 Colorado
6.63 National
4.4 Nevada
4.3 OH
3.4 Florida
1.7 NC
1.7 ND
1.4 Missouri
0.1 Indiana
-2.6 Montana
-3.8 Georgia
-4.6 WV
-4.7 Arizona
-8.3 SD
-9.5 Louisiana
-10.3 Mississippi
-11.3 Arkansas
-12.5 Alaska
-12.5 Kansas
-12.8 SC
-13.0 TX
-13.8 Kentucky
-14.3 TN
-22.0 Wy
-22.7 Alabama
-23.0 UT
-24.0 OK


Here is why McCain won't win Pennsylvania...

Regarding Pennsylvania, here are all of the polls that have been released this week:
code:
Muhlenberg 54-41 (Obama +13)
NBC/Mason-Dixon 47-43 (Obama +4)
CNN/Time 55-43 (Obama +12)
Rasmussen 53-46 (Obama +7)
InsiderAdvantag 51-42 (Obama +9)
Marist College 55-41 (Obama +14)
Quinnipiac 53-41 (Obama +12)
AP-Gfk 52-40 (Obama +12)
F&M College 53-40 (Obama +13)
Temple 50-41 (Obama +9)
The NBC/Mason-Dixon poll is clearly an outlier.



Early Voting Data
Current Early voting numbers: 19,338,956

As a percentage of the TOTAL 2004 vote in each state

Arkansas: 28.5%
California: 23.4%
Colorado: 52.3%
Florida: 37.6%
Georgia: 47.4%
Illinois: 19.4%
Iowa: 26.3%
Kansas: 37%
Louisiana: 13.6%
Maine: 16.8%
Montana: 40.5%
Nevada: 53.3%
New Mexico: 55.2%
North Carolina: 52%
Tennessee: 56.4%
Texas: 36.9%
West Virginia: 12.5%

---

NC party breakdown so far: 53.3% Dem, 29.2 Rep, 17.6 Other
NM: 54-33-14
NV: 53-30-17
LA: 59-28-13
IA: 49-28-23
GA: (Race) 60.1 White, 35.6 Black
FL: 46-38-16
CO: 39-37-25



Since I'll be asked about this after I post it.

I took the states that separate it by Party Breakdown in the early voting numbers, (except for Georgia where I used racial breakdowns.

I then took the average of the party breakdown in the most recent polls crosstabs and attributed it to the numbers.

This is what I got (assuming turnout is equal to 2004)

Colorado: The numbers look like a 53-47 lead for obama at the moment, and in order for Mccain to win, he needs to win 54% of the remaining voters.

Florida: 55-45 lead for Obama, and Mccain needs 54% of the remaining voters.

GA: 54-46 lead for Obama, Mccain needs 55% of the remaining voters...
IA: 56-44 lead currently, and Mccain needs 52% to win the state

LA: 51-49 for Obama, needs 51% of the remainder.

Maine: 56-44 for Obama, needs 52% to win state

Nevada: 61-39 for Obama, Mccain needs 68% of the remaining voters to win

New Mexico: 62-38 in the one county, Mccain needs 70% of that county to win.

North Carolina: 56-42 for Obama so far, Mccain needs 59% of the state to win.

Our GOTV efforts are going to win this for us.


Predictions
Popular vote: I predict Obama wins 54-46 of the popular vote (not counting independent) a differential of about ~8%.
Senate: 58-60 senate seats for democrats. 30% probability of filibuster proof 60 seat majority.

Electoral votes: Obama wins with 364 electoral votes vs McCain 174.

Map:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/prediction.jpg

These are the states I view as real tossups ranked from higher probability of upset, to lower: Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, Arizona and West Virginia. There is a very good chance one or several of these will turn blue.

In summary, GG McCain / Palin! :cool:

[Darth McBain]

Courstsey of Morgan...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E91WoyDhbqc

:lol Nice, but I kept expecting a play on "... and knowing's half the battle."

[Jedieb]

Electoral votes: Obama wins with 364 electoral votes vs McCain 174.

Map:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/prediction.jpg

These are the states I view as real tossups ranked from higher probability of upset, to lower: Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, Arizona and West Virginia. There is a very good chance one or several of these will turn blue.

In summary, GG McCain / Palin! :cool:

Over the past two days I have done a lesson on the Electoral College with my students. As part of the lesson each student colors in an electoral map and then predicts the outcome. I have the students go on the web and visit a couple of polling sites to help them make their predictions. I did my own map and I came up with the EXACT same total that Yog has; 364 to 174. Our maps are identical. So, even if McCain pulls out Ohio and/or Florida, he's going to lose.

[Yog]

I did my own map and I came up with the EXACT same total that Yog has; 364 to 174. Our maps are identical.
Yup, we rock. :cool:

In fairness, you could flip a coin over Indiana, it's so close. I would not be all surprised if McCain won Indiana. On the other hand, you could say the same about Missouri and North Dakota, flipping the other way.



So, even if McCain pulls out Ohio and/or Florida, he's going to lose.
Not only that. If McCain wins Ohio, Florida, Indiana, Nevada, North Carolina AND Virginia, if he wins ALL those (laughable unlikely) he still is 4 electorals votes short, because of Colorado. That is how crappy the situation is for McCain. He actually needs Pennsylvania to win, and for reasons I discussed before, that ain't going to happen.

[Jedieb]

The first 5 polls of the day have pushed Obama's lead UP to 6.4 at RCP. McCain's best showing was in Rasmussen, but that was a mixed bag because it had Obama at 51. The 47 they gave McCain has been his best showing today, by far. The other polls; 43, 43, 43, and 41. Those are depressing numbers... for McCain. I'm giggling like a schoolgirl. :crack

[CMJ]

My EV map is 338-200 for Obama.

[Jedieb]

BRUTAL polling day for McCain. Unless there are any late night polls for McCain, he's going down more than 1/2 point today to 6.5 at RCP. He simply CAN'T afford this.

I'm curious Court, what toss ups do you have McCain pulling out? I think Ohio or Indiana are his best bets. But Penn. is simply out of reach.

[CMJ]

Think basketball states. ;)

Indiana and North Carolina.

[Cat X]

OP UPDATE!

Early voting data link added. The numbers are huge - will probably go past 2004 total early today. And this is without a lot of states that dont report absentee / early

[Charley]

Alabama wrapped up absentee voting yesterday but I don't know if they report or not. Like anybody cares lol.

[Morgan Evanar]

Alabama wrapped up absentee voting yesterday but I don't know if they report or not. Like anybody cares lol.Maybe Charles Barkley and get you guys thinking clearly ;)

[Sanis Prent]

Alabama wrapped up absentee voting yesterday but I don't know if they report or not. Like anybody cares lol.Maybe Charles Barkley and get you guys thinking clearly ;)

Yeah I'm totally pumped that our state is the next one that will join the gimmick governors club lol.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/nation-exhausted/2008/10/31/1224956332749.html

And with that, I'll post my EV prediction / map.

Mine is completely optimistic and depends on this election being a re-alignment election. It's also depends on Obama's GOTV being as big and as good as has been suggested. Given he has run a superb campaign, I see no reason to doubt it. I am also presuming the racist vote wont come out and will stay at home. Too much disgust with the GOP, and they wont vote for no racist ephitat.

And while the evangelical vote will be high, anyone with a lick of intelligence will be scared crapless by Palin and avoid voting for her. Thence there should be a nasty whiplash

One thing from early voting is clear that the predicted minority vote upswing will be a fact and African-Americans will vote in unprecedented numbers, with an unheard of lockstep in whom they vote for. They want to see MLK's speech come true.

I doubt this will happen, but I would be delighted if it did

http://alliancemotorsport.org/gallery/d/64952-1/election.jpg

[Morgan Evanar]

Alabama wrapped up absentee voting yesterday but I don't know if they report or not. Like anybody cares lol.Maybe Charles Barkley and get you guys thinking clearly ;)

Yeah I'm totally pumped that our state is the next one that will join the gimmick governors club lol.I hope Alabama slowly shifts, ok :(

[Rutabaga]

Alabama wrapped up absentee voting yesterday but I don't know if they report or not. Like anybody cares lol.Maybe Charles Barkley and get you guys thinking clearly ;)

Yeah I'm totally pumped that our state is the next one that will join the gimmick governors club lol.

Although I have definite progressive leanings, I voted for The Governator both times here in CA. And overall I've been satisfied with his performance. He hasn't been perfect, that's for sure, but he's also not an ultra right-wing conservative looney bird. He's more of a centrist, which I'm very comfortable with. And when he's made boo-boos, he's been willing to admit to the boo-boos instead of making excuses. He got huge, huge flak for the horrible budget impasse we just survived--as a matter of fact, the prison guard union threatened a recall movement--but I don't think it was fair to just blame him. It was the entire California legislature as a whole that was responsible for that.

That said...the comments that he made at the McCain rally yesterday were vintage silly Ahnuld. All I did was laugh.

But...he has also come out forcefully against Proposition 8. And I was really glad to hear that.

As for the future, I believe that San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom has announced he'll be running for Governor. The bad thing about that is, I can already picture the really hateful, disgusting ads that will be done about him by his opponent, whoever that might be.

And as for Alabama...I hope you guys don't get stuck with Charles Barkley. I'm not a basketball fan at all, but I've always thought he's nothing but a big loudmouthed jerk.

[Ryan Pode]

He was here this morning and he sounded like an idiot. Really the only person I liked was this one guy who spoke but that's because he looked like Santa Claus. Oh, and Cindy McCain is hot.

[Rutabaga]

Oh, and Cindy McCain is hot.

I swear she reminds me of the fembots from the Bionic Woman years ago. :x

Anywho, saw this at Pundit Kitchen and figured this was very appropriate for SWFans:

<a href="http://punditkitchen.com"><img class="mine_2430741" style="word-spacing:2430741px;font-size:2430741px;" src="http://images.icanhascheezburger.com/completestore/2008/10/29/128697690788399080.jpg" alt="If only you knew the power... of the blue side of the force." /></a><br />see more <a href="http://punditkitchen.com">funny political pictures</a>

[Sanis Prent]

And as for Alabama...I hope you guys don't get stuck with Charles Barkley. I'm not a basketball fan at all, but I've always thought he's nothing but a big loudmouthed jerk.

That is why he is awesome, and I say that as an Alabama fan, so he's got the juice. That being said, does he have credentials to be Governor? Hell if I know. He's at least pretty up & up on staying involved in political stuff, so who can say for sure?

[Jedieb]

No movement on the polls released today. In fact, Obama's RCP average went up a tenth of point to 6.6 after the early releases. Time and these recent polls have reduced McCain's 538 odds to 2.8%.

And Obama's aunt may be here in the country illegally. Why we should care about this I don't know.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

And Obama's aunt may be here in the country illegally. Why we should care about this I don't know.

After being here legally and then being denied asylum and not having the money to leave but not being put on a plane and kicked out due to a law McCain sponsored.

It's a wash.

[Figrin D'an]

Tuesday can't get here fast enough. Not just because I'm tired of the TV ads and the junk mail I get every day, but because I'm actually somewhat optimistic about a presidential election for the first time in over a decade.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Tuesday can't get here fast enough. Not just because I'm tired of the TV ads and the junk mail I get every day, but because I'm actually somewhat optimistic about a presidential election for the first time in over a decade.

Me too, I wasn't optimistic about the last two.

[Yog]

Sarah Palin pranked by hoax phone call. :lol

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hgBiKF820Dz9_HMq4UYDKz1cTjTA


MONTREAL (AFP) — Republican vice presidential hopeful Sarah Palin on Saturday was the victim of a prank phone call by a French-Canadian comedian impersonating French President Nicolas Sarkozy.

After Palin realized the call was a hoax, her campaign staff admitted she was "mildly amused."

The prank tag-team from Quebec, "Justicia masques," who have previously targeted heads of state and celebrities, posted the conversation on their website (www.justiciers.tv).

In the recording, John McCain's running mate enthusiastically takes the fake Sarkozy's call.

"It's so good to hear you, thank you for calling us ... we have such great respect for you, John McCain and I, we love you!" Palin said.

She appeared unfazed by the fake president's thick French accent and some outrageous comments.

At one point the impersonator, comedian Sebastien Trudel, told the Alaskan governor he is following the US elections closely along with his special American advisor Johnny Hallyday -- a famous French rock'n'roll singer.

When the fake president told Palin his wife Carla Bruni is "hot in bed," the governor chuckled and complimented him for his "beautiful family."

Palin also proffered to continue relations if she reaches the White House.

"We should go hunting together," Palin said.

Palin laughed in response to Trudel's comment: "I just love killing those animals ... take away life, that is so fun!"

The governor, who is making a whistle-stop tour through key states in the last weekend before the November 4 election, told the fake president that she is "very confident" about the Republican ticket's chances, and said she thought "the race is tightening" ahead of Tuesday's general election.

"I see you as a president one day, too," said the comedian.

"Maybe in eight years," replied Palin.

The comedy duo have previously used their Sarkozy impersonation to target former French president Jacques Chirac, celebrities Mick Jagger and Britney Spears, and Sarkozy himself.

"This was our most explosive coup so far," comedian Marc Antoine Audette told AFP, adding that it was "difficult" for his accomplice Trudel to get their request for a phone conversation past Palin's entourage and her Secret Service detail.

The McCain campaign later released a statement about the phone call.

"Governor Palin was mildly amused to learn that she had joined the ranks of heads of state, including President Sarkozy, and other celebrities in being targeted by these pranksters. C'est la vie."

[Yog]

Here is the audio recording! :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_5V_-_aUZo

[Jedieb]

Obama's ending the day up almost a full point. (RCP 6.8) The Gallup polls were particularly impressive, he was up by 10 on both models. The Zogby numbers that Drudge was babbling about were a one day fluke. There may even be more unreliable numbers on the way because of Halloween. Friday's are tough enough, but combine that with a holiday and you've got a tough day to poll accurately.

Man, it's so close. I just want this to be OVER with!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Obama's ending the day up almost a full point. (RCP 6.8) The Gallup polls were particularly impressive, he was up by 10 on both models. The Zogby numbers that Drudge was babbling about were a one day fluke. There may even be more unreliable numbers on the way because of Halloween. Friday's are tough enough, but combine that with a holiday and you've got a tough day to poll accurately.

Man, it's so close. I just want this to be OVER with!

Me too, I've got to listen to my nervous mother who keeps getting worried about it, thinking Obama's going to lose. I guess the last two elections got her on the edge.

[Yog]

McCain and Tina Fey on SNL:
http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/mccain-qvc-open/805381/



"There's Nothing We Can't Do"
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[Jedieb]

I thought McCain's SNL appearance last night was EXCELLENT. He was self deprecating and just plain funny. I think he'd be in a lot better shape right now if we'd seen more of that John McCain during this campaign instead of the cranky old man that's tried to throw the kitchen sink at Obama.

[Yog]

I thought McCain's SNL appearance last night was EXCELLENT. He was self deprecating and just plain funny. I think he'd be in a lot better shape right now if we'd seen more of that John McCain during this campaign instead of the cranky old man that's tried to throw the kitchen sink at Obama.
I agree, that was great. Wish we could have seen more of that side. In 2000, McCain would not take the low road. But in 2008 he followed in Bush' footsteps, in terms of negative campaigning, and on several core issues like economy and foreign policy, not to mention pandering to the religious right with the Palin pick.

[Rutabaga]

"There's Nothing We Can't Do"
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Wow, that left me all goosebumpy and kinda teary. :)

As for the SNL sketch, I haven't seen it yet, but I heard it really did go quite well, and everybody seems to be saying what you're saying, Eb and Yog. It kind of reminds me of what happened to Bob Dole after the '96 election, when he was nothing but Mr. Crabbypants but then did the hilarious Visa card ad afterwards. Nobody realized that the man actually had a decent sense of humor! :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

Nobodys mentioned Dick Cheney endorsing McCain. I am sure that is one endorsement that he didn't want.

[Jedieb]

As we get bombarded with polls and 'tightening' numbers these last 2 days, here are some odds to warm the hearts of Obama supporters. Here are 538's odds for Obama wins in the battleground states. And remember, McCain has to win Penn and ALL of the other states except NH. He's campaigning in NH to use it as an insurance policy in case he loses NV.

Battleground Odds
Penn.
FL 64%
NC 66%
VA 94%
OH 83%
MO 43%
CO 94%
NV 83%
NH 98%

[Jedi Master Carr]

What are the odds for PA? It is good to see those odds.

[CMJ]

But in 2008 he followed in Bush' footsteps, in terms of negative campaigning, and on several core issues like economy and foreign policy, not to mention pandering to the religious right with the Palin pick.

I don't think that would've been too different. McCain has always been sort of a hawk. He pushed for the surge way before Bush implemented it.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

What are the odds for PA? It is good to see those odds.

538 has it as 98%

[Jedieb]

Damn, I forgot to do PA, but JT's got it. And speaking of SNL, did everyone see the Olbermann skit? As fans of Countdown my wife and I were laughing hysterically. It's the best work Affleck's done in years.

[Rutabaga]

I don't get MSNBC on my cable system for some reason (ugh, Comcast), but I still love KO whenever I see clips of him. But I'm the first person to admit he can go off the deep end sometimes. Because of that, I LOVED the Affleck sketch. It was a little uneven, but overall pretty sharp and on the money. I thought Affleck was going to pop a blood vessel at one point, he was getting so worked up! :lol

[Cat X]

Final polls from a few organizations:

Pew: 52-46
CNN: 53-46
CBS: 54-41
USAToday/Gallup: 53-42

[Cat X]

FIANL GALLUP

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/Final-Presidential-Estimate-Obama-55-McCain-44.aspx

In 2004, Bush was up +1.5

[Yog]

Poll update
http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/polls-chart.png

Yellow polls include cell phones.



Edit - and here are a couple fun ones.. :)

7-Eleven.com coffee cup poll
Obama 60% McCain 40%

In the 2000 7-Election, our George W. Bush coffee cup outsold Al Gore's cup by just 1 percentage point.

The 2004 7-Election results tracked identically with published national election results: 51% for George W. Bush and 49% for John Kerry (within a few percentage points of actual poll results in many states!).


Domino's Pizza
Obama 151,416 (61.77%)
McCain 93,718 (38.23%)

Obama wins in Domino's poll (http://www.twincities.com/minnesota/ci_10883661)

According to the survey, the victory in the presidential race goes to Obama, with support from 151,416 pizza consumers. Another 93,718 are voting for McCain.

Domino's also linked party affiliation and customer orders, and listed pizza-buying traits by political leanings.

In general, Republicans:

Spend more per order than other customers

Rely on credit cards more than other customers

Tend to order two large specialty pizzas at a time

Are more likely to pick up their order than have it delivered

While Democrats:

Rely on delivery more than other customer types

Pay cash for their food

Opt for side orders, like breadsticks and chicken wings, with their single pizza orders more than other customers.

"It will be fun to see just how accurate the Pizza Tracker Poll was," McIntyre said.

[Yog]

And here is a story about Obama 20 years ago. He helped pay a poor woman's ticket for a flight to Norway so she could spend time with her husband, and this was while he was a poorly paid community worker with student loan. I don't know about you, but it moved many Norwegian hearts. :cry

Obama Helped Woman from Norway 20 Years Ago (http://politicalmusic.wordpress.com/2008/10/22/obama-helped-woman-from-norway-20-years-ago/)


The Norwegian newspaper VG has reported a truly amazing story about a newly-wed trying to get to Norway to be with her husband, and the stranger who helped pay an unexpected luggage surcharge. The blog “Leisha’s Random Thoughts” has translated the story.

It was 1988, and Mary Andersen was at the Miami airport checking in for a long flight to Norway to be with her husband when the airline representative informed her that she wouldn’t be able to check her luggage without paying a 100 surcharge:

When it was finally Mary’s turn, she got the message that would crush her bubbling feeling of happiness.

-You’ll have to pay a 103 dollar surcharge if you want to bring both those suitcases to Norway , the man behind the counter said.

Mary had no money. Her new husband had travelled ahead of her to Norway , and she had no one else to call.

-I was completely desperate and tried to think which of my things I could manage without. But I had already made such a careful selection of my most prized possessions, says Mary.

As tears streamed down her face, she heard a “gentle and friendly voice” behind her saying, “That’s okay, I’ll pay for her.”
Mary turned around to see a tall man whom she had never seen before.

-He had a gentle and kind voice that was still firm and decisive. The first thing I thought was, Who is this man?

Although this happened 20 years ago, Mary still remembers the authority that radiated from the man.

-He was nicely dressed, fashionably dressed with brown leather shoes, a cotton shirt open at the throat and khaki pants, says Mary.

She was thrilled to be able to bring both her suitcases to Norway and assured the stranger that he would get his money back. The man wrote his name and address on a piece of paper that he gave to Mary. She thanked him repeatedly. When she finally walked off towards the security checkpoint, he waved goodbye to her.

Who was the man?

Barack Obama.

Twenty years later, she is thrilled that the friendly stranger at the airport may be the next President and has voted for him already and donated 100 dollars to his campaign:

-He was my knight in shining armor, says Mary, smiling.

She paid the 103 dollars back to Obama the day after she arrived in Norway . At that time he had just finished his job as a poorly paid community worker* in Chicago , and had started his law studies at prestigious Harvard university.

Mary even convinced her parents to vote for him:

In the spring of 2006 Mary’s parents had heard that Obama was considering a run for president, but that he had still not decided. They chose to write a letter in which they told him that he would receive their votes. At the same time, they thanked Obama for helping their daughter 18 years earlier.

And Obama replied:

In a letter to Mary’s parents dated May 4th, 2006 and stamped ‘United States Senate, Washington DC ‘, Barack Obama writes:

‘I want to thank you for the lovely things you wrote about me and for reminding me of what happened at Miami airport. I’m happy I could help back then, and I’m delighted to hear that your daughter is happy in Norway . Please send her my best wishes. Sincerely, Barack Obama , United States Senator’.

The parents sent the letter on to Mary.

Mary says that when her friends and associates talk about the election, especially when race relations is the heated subject, she relates the story of the k ind man who helped out a stranger-in-need over twenty years ago, years before he had even thought about running for high office.

Truly a wonderful story, and something that needs to be passed along in the maelstorm of fear-and-smear politics we are being subjected to right now.

UPDATE: Thanks for the recommends, folks! Also, remember this was 1988, when 100 dollars was quite a bit of money, compared to today’s value.

By the way, this would be the perfect antidote to the Smear E-mails going around. If anyone has a good long email chain list, shoot it out, and let it be passed along.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The polls are looking great. I think today will be the last polls we will see. I don't think anybody releases any on Election day.

[Yog]

The polls are looking great. I think today will be the last polls we will see. I don't think anybody releases any on Election day.
Let's not forget about the exit polls.

[Jedi Master Carr]

True, I wonder how networks will treat them after the last two elections.

[Yog]

True, I wonder how networks will treat them after the last two elections.
I think they will treat it the same way as in the primaries, holding back exit poll results until polls close.

Conservative libertarian Andrew Sullivan endorses Obama:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/11/barack-obama-fo.html

[Yog]

Breaking news: Obama's grandmother passed away. :(

[Cat X]

Breaking news: Obama's grandmother passed away. :(

Well crap :(

It is now Nov 4 (Yes I know about time zones, get with the future :) ) and the election is ON. There is an absentee(?) polling place in Sydney and it seems to be doing good business. So yes, the first votes on Nov 4 have been cast.

Actually we even had a Democrats Abroad delegation gather at Darlign Harbour for the Democrat convention. Which surprised me. There was a smaller Republican one as well.

Good luck Democrats! My prayers are for you and Obama.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Breaking news: Obama's grandmother passed away. :(

Very sad :(

[Cat X]

Breaking news: Obama's grandmother passed away. :(

Very sad :(

And have a look what the RNC tried to do a few hours before it was announced....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/rnc-hits-obama-for-visit_n_140553.html


Bastards.

[Jedieb]

McCain's odds have fallen to 1.9% at 538. Most of the final polls released today looked great for Obama. A few decent ones for McCain, but nothing earth shattering. The RCP lead ends up at 7.3. The anecdotal evidence from the ground games are startling. Obama seems poised to unleash the greatest ground force any Democrat has ever fielded. One that may even surpass the ones Rove and Bush put together.

I for one think the nervous energy that some Democrats have tonight is a GOOD thing. It's going to give volunteers a little extra boost tomorrow. I'm getting up at 5:30. I want to get my vote in as early as possible (the polls in VA open at 6AM) so that I can drive over to the downtown Roanoke office to volunteer. I'm going to drive people to the polls, offer my limited Spanish skills, and anything else they ask of me. I've got parent teacher conferences from noon to 6PM. If I could take the whole day off, I would.

The only bad news of the day for me is that my laptop crapped out on me. I had to take it down to Best Buy and it's off to the manufacturer. Hopefully I'll get it back in less than a month. :(

[Rutabaga]

Very sad to hear about Obama's grandma, even though it was not unexpected. She's still with him, though, cheering him on to the end. :angel

[Cat X]

Very sad to hear about Obama's grandma, even though it was not unexpected. She's still with him, though, cheering him on to the end. :angel


In a cold view of it all, her death would give Obama a sympathy bounce. Yes that is cold, but it's also probably true.

The campaigns are over. Barack's wrapped it up, so has McCain. That's it.

Do NOT let us down again America - The world is watching and hoping. And there's a very big :toxx: bet riding on this - 350 EV is the total. So to really damage my wallet, 350 EV or over so get voting!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Anybody believe in the Redskin prediction? They lost and in the past except for 2004 the winner of this game predicted the winner. That would favor Obama but I am not sure if I believe in that weird superstition.

Obama gets a early victory in NH
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081104/ap_on_el_pr/new_hampshire_first_votes

[Yog]

Obama gets a early victory in NH
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081104/ap_on_el_pr/new_hampshire_first_votes
It's a small sample, but significant because it is the first time Dixville Notch goes democratic since 1968... a sign of things to come?

Dixville Notch
2000: 77% Bush
2004: 73% Bush
2008: 71% Obama

Undeclared voters in Dixville Notch broke 82% for Obama. (4 voters were registered Republican, 5 were registered Democratic.)


Poll closing times
http://img393.imageshack.us/img393/6453/pollclosingtimesmu2.gif

[Yog]

Final Zogby Poll
Obama 54.1 - McCain 42.7

Suck it up Matt Drudge. :lol


Monday polling roundup

CO: One poll showing Obama +4
FL: 5 polls, 4 of which had Obama +2, and one had Mccain +1
GA: 4 polls with Mccain leads from 1-7 points
IN: Two polls, M+5, O+1
MO: Three polls, all ties
MT: O+1
NATIONAL: 13 polls averaging O+6.8
NV: Two polls, O+4,8
NC: 4 polls, 3 M+1, 1 O+1
OH:7 polls, One had Mccain +2, One tied, five Obama leads (+2,2,6,6,7)
PA: 5 polls, all O leads (6,7,8,10,14)
VA 2 polls, +4,6


Edit - National poll update:
IBD +8, Marist +9

[Rutabaga]

I've made a potentially bold prediction that the race will be called by 9pm California time, meaning around midnight east coast time. It don't think it will be a squeaker into the wee hours like the last couple of elections have been.

And the first claims of election theft thrown by crazies on the right will be minutes after the race is called. :lol :evil :mischief

[Jaime Tomahawk]

And the first claims of election theft thrown by crazies on the right will be minutes after the race is called. :lol :evil :mischief


Despite the fact that election fraud and voter suppression is endemic on the Republican side........ but hey, if you cant see reality about Bush or Palin, why would you see reality if you got your butt kicked fair and square?

[Yog]

Plans already underway for Obama cabinet.

Dems sketch Obama staff, Cabinet (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/15142.html)


Republican insiders close to John McCain are spending much more time in the campaign’s final days trying to pull off an upset victory on Tuesday than focusing on who might be in a McCain Cabinet. But sources close to Barack Obama have quite specific ideas about his most likely choices for a wide array of top jobs.

The list is heavy on campaign heavyweights and Washington insiders, many of them from the administration of President Bill Clinton. So while surprises can be expected to crop up — especially on any Republican members of the Cabinet — many of the selections would likely be proven hands who would provoke little controversy. Obama has not communicated his final choice on any of these posts but plans to move very quickly if he is elected, according to the sources. They point to the political price that Clinton paid for dilly-dallying on his appointments and nomination.

Obama could name his White House chief of staff within a week of his election, advisers say. Obama would also likely make a rapid announcement on an economic team in an effort to show command of the most pressing issue that would face him on moving into the Oval Office on Jan. 20.

Larry Summers, who was Clinton’s last Treasury secretary before becoming president of Harvard, is considered a favorite for Treasury secretary for Obama.

Obama transition planners have been working to line up a national security team, which would also likely be named sooner rather than later.

Here is the list of names being widely discussed in Democratic circles, compiled with the help of ABC’s Jonathan Karl and Politico’s Ben Smith. Some of the names are more likely than others, but all are being seriously considered by Obama advisers. Some of the sources would be involved in decision making, and some were making educated deductions.

In any case, ask a well-positioned Democrat, and this is what you’ll hear.

White House chief of staff: Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-S.D.); Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.); or dark horse candidate Bill Daley, commerce secretary under President Bill Clinton and now an executive with JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Deputy chief of staff: Pete Rouse, chief of staff in Obama's Senate office; Ron Klain, former chief of staff to Vice President Al Gore; longtime Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett; Jim Messina, campaign chief of staff

Senior adviser: David Plouffe, David Axelrod, Steve Hildebrand

Outside adviser: Abner Mikva

Ambassador at large on climate change: former Vice President Al Gore

National security adviser: Jim Steinberg, the deputy under Clinton; Gregory Craig, special counsel to Clinton; Susan Rice; retired Marine Gen. Anthony Zinni; Samantha Power of Harvard’s Kennedy School

White House counsel: Bob Bauer, campaign counsel; Chris Lu, Obama legislative director and member of transition staff; Heather Higginbottom, campaign senior policy strategist and longtime aide to Sen. John F. Kerry; Mike Strautmanis, congressional affairs for campaign and former chief counsel in Senate office

Chief of staff to the vice president: Tony Blinken, chief of staff, Senate Foreign Relations Committee (Biden is chairman) and senior campaign adviser for Biden; Stephanie Cutter; former Biden aides Mark Gittenstein, Alan Hoffman and Ted Kaufman

Chief of staff to first lady Michelle Obama: Alyssa Mastromonaco, campaign director of scheduling and advance; Melissa Winter; Linda Douglass, senior spokeswoman for campaign

Counselor: Robert Gibbs, Anita Dunn, Valerie Jarrett, Jon Favreau

Communications director: Robert Gibbs; Dan Pfeiffer, who has that post in the campaign

Deputy communications director: Josh Earnest

Press secretary: Robert Gibbs, Linda Douglass, Bill Burton, Stephanie Cutter

Director of media affairs (regional and specialty media): Blake Zeff

Speechwriting director: Jon Favreau, Jeff Nussbaum

Deputy press secretary: Karen Dunn, currently Axelrod’s deputy

Press staff morale chief: Tommy Vietor

Assistant press secretary: Isaac Baker, Reid Cherlin, Ben LaBolt, Moira Mack, Hari Sevugan, Nick Shapiro

Press secretary to the first lady: Katie McCormick Lelyveld

White House economic adviser: Austan Goolsbee, senior policy adviser to campaign and University of Chicago economics professor; Jason Furman, director of economic policy for the campaign; Michael Froman, former Treasury chief of staff, Citigroup executive and Harvard Law classmate of Obama

Domestic policy adviser: Heather Higginbottom, Jason Furman, Neera Tanden

Director of scheduling: Marvin Nicholson

Personal aide: Reggie Love

Cabinet secretary: Christine Varney, who held that post under Clinton

White House staff secretary: Cassandra Butts

Director of legislative affairs: Chris Lu, Mike Strautmanis

Political director: Erik Smith

Defense secretary: Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.); Richard Danzig, Navy secretary under Clinton; John Hamre, president and CEO of CSIS and former deputy secretary of defense; President Bush’s incumbent, Robert Gates — would be for at least a year so he wasn’t a lame duck

Attorney general: Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine; Eric Holder, who was deputy AG under Clinton and is now with Covington & Burling and led Obama’s vice presidential search; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano

Supreme Court nominee: Washington superlawyer Robert Barnett; legal scholar Cass Sunstein; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals Judge Sonia Sotomayor of New York; Elena Kagan, dean of Harvard Law School. Consensus is it would most likely be a woman.

Secretary of State: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson; Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.); Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.)

Deputy secretary of State: Gregory Craig

Director of State Department policy planning (internal think tank): Samantha Power

U.S. ambassador to the United Nations: Susan Rice, senior campaign national security adviser and State Department and National Security Council official under Clinton; Caroline Kennedy

Treasury secretary: Former Clinton treasury secretaries Larry Summers and Robert Rubin; FDIC Chairwoman Sheila C. Bair; New York Fed President Timothy Geithner, former Treasury under secretary and assistant secretary; former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker

Deputy Treasury secretary: Jake Siewert

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Tom Daschle; Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean, a physician; John Kitzhaber, doctor and former Oregon governor

Health care czar in White House: Tom Daschle

Education secretary: David Boren, president of the University of Oklahoma and former U.S. senator and former Sooner State governor; Former New Jersey Gov. Tom Kean (R), who was chairman of the 9/11 Commission; Rep. George Miller (D-Calif.)

Environmental Protection Agency administrator: Former Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.); Kathleen McGinty, former head of the Pennsylvania Environmental Protection Agency

Commerce secretary: Penny Pritzker, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)

Homeland Security secretary: Former Sen. Gary Hart (D-Colo.); William Bratton, Los Angeles police chief and former New York police commissioner; former Rep. Tim Roemer (D-Ind.), a member of the 9/11 Commission; Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.); Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine)

CIA director: Former Rep. Tim Roemer (D-Ind.), Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.)

Director of National Intelligence: Rep. Jane Harman (D-Calif.)

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Longtime Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett, Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-Ill.)

Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Former Sen. Max Cleland (D-Ga.); Tammy Duckworth, the director of Illinois Veterans’ Affairs, Iraq veteran and former Democratic House candidate; Bush’s incumbent, James Peake

Secretary of the Interior: Rep. Jay Inslee (D-Wash.), Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Energy: California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.)

Secretary of Transportation: Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.)

Secretary of Labor: Former Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.); Andrew Stern, president of the Service Employees International Union; Kay Hagan of North Carolina (if she loses her challenge to U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole); Jeanne Shaheen, former New Hampshire governor (if she loses her challenge to U.S. Sen. John Sununu)

Secretary of Agriculture: Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.)

Director, Office of National Drug Control Policy: William Bratton

Director, Council for Faith-Based and Neighborhood Partnerships (Obama's renamed faith-based office): Josh DuBois, campaign's director of religious affairs

[Yog]

Final Rasmussen:
Obama 52
McCain 46
Nader/Barr/McKinney/Baldwin 1
Coin Flip 1

[Jedi Master Carr]

well the last poll are looking good. It should be a exciting day.

[Yog]

Live video stream from MSNBC election coverage:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/22887506#22887506

[Jedieb]

I was in line at 5:45am. The line wasn't that long, but certainly longer than I've ever seen at my polling place. I then drove downtown and volunteered at the office. I drove a couple of voters to the polls, treated the office to some donuts, and then headed off to work for parent teacher conferences. My first conference is in a few minutes. I wish I could have stayed at the office ALL day. :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know the feeling, I am not going to be home when the returns start coming in. I have class, I was shocked we had class here on Election Day. I already voted abstinent but still. The professor is a democrat (he always talks about how bad McCain and the republicans are) so we are hoping he has a TV in the room or something. Luckily 90% of that class are democrats or leaning Obama.

[Yog]

I was in line at 5:45am. The line wasn't that long, but certainly longer than I've ever seen at my polling place.
You were lucky. I heard some places in Virginia, the queues were up to 5 hours long..

Btw, here is a better link for streaming coverage. You can switch between Fox News, MSNBC and there is a chat interface.
http://www.blinkotv.com/

[Jedi Master Carr]

The worse part of Virginia I have heard are the wet ballot issue. There hasn't been any major problems yet.

[Yog]

The worse part of Virginia I have heard are the wet ballot issue. There hasn't been any major problems yet.
I heard there were some issues with military votes from overseas being submitted after the deadline in Virginia, potential ten thousands of votes. And there was some stuff about voting machines not playing ball in Tampa Bay Florida..

But besides those and long queues, I have not heard of much problems.


Here are 1000 students lining up to vote at 7am at Penn State University.. :)
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Whc4OmprF2s&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Whc4OmprF2s&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[Yog]

RCP average today is the highest it has ever been in this election at 7.5%.

[Jedieb]

At the field office I was at today we got one call about a machine that only allowed someone to vote for Prez., neither the Senate or local House race were on the machine. But aside from that, most of the complaints were about lack of signs. I can't tell you how insane people are about yard signs. What I've learned is that Obama offices aren't nearly concerened with signs as they are on field operations; canvassing, phone banking, etc. Signs are great, but odds are that if you've got one on your lawn your vote is in the bank. Signs on the sides of roads may make you feel good as you drive by, but they're not nearly as important as knocking door to door, passing out donuts to people in line, making phone calls, driving people to the polls. That's how you win, not with signs but with PEOPLE.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The worse part of Virginia I have heard are the wet ballot issue. There hasn't been any major problems yet.
I heard there were some issues with military votes from overseas being submitted after the deadline in Virginia, potential ten thousands of votes. And there was some stuff about voting machines not playing ball in Tampa Bay Florida..

But besides those and long queues, I have not heard of much problems.


Here are 1000 students lining up to vote at 7am at Penn State University.. :)
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Whc4OmprF2s&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Whc4OmprF2s&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

The lines are bad a lot of places except for some areas that had a lot of early voting, but even in Florida I hear about long lines in Miami and Tampa.

[Jedieb]

RCP average today is the highest it has ever been in this election at 7.5%.

It's actually hit 8 before, but that 7.5% is one his highest averages. no doubt, those last rounds of polls looked good for Obama. I get the sense that some pollsters tried to get their numbers in line with the rest of the crowd.

EDIT:
10/25 8.0%
10/26 7.6%

[Yog]

Signs on the sides of roads may make you feel good as you drive by, but they're not nearly as important as knocking door to door, passing out donuts to people in line, making phone calls, driving people to the polls. That's how you win, not with signs but with PEOPLE.
Well said. That is Obama's key for victory in Virginia and several other battleground states, IMO. :)

Nate just dropped McCain's win chance down to 1.1% over at 538.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Nate also explains why we should not be excited about exit polls:


2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

10 reasons why you should ignore exit polls (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html)

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know signs point to Obama winning, but I am still nervous. I guess as someone who saw the rug ripped out from under him the last two elections must be why I feel that way.

[Figrin D'an]

I took my lunch break early today and voted at about 11:45 AM local time. There was a short line of about 10-15 people, but I was done and on my way home for lunch in about 10 minutes. The people running the polls said that they were on pace for a record turnout for our voting ward, despite the after work rush being hours away yet.

Short ballot for us this time around... only 3 local races (all uncontested), State Assembly seat, Congressional seat and President. That will likely make the process much quicker for our area than most.

Glad I was able to get it done early though, so I can just relax this evening and watch the results roll in.

[Jedieb]

I can't stress how important the 'exit poll' Yog quoted is. IGNORE these things. They've become notoriously unreliable. If any of them get leaked today I wouldn't put any stock into them. They were way off in Kerry's favor in 04 and who knows what some pollsters may do to try to correct those mistakes. They could end up weighing them in the wrong direction quite easily. Just sit tight until 7-9PM. In those 2 hours we'll probably know if we're really headed towards a blowout.

[Yog]

Turnout looking great in Philadelphia:

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/Philly_turnout_Its_big_Real_big.html


The turnout stunned election officials in many areas.

“This is big. Real big,” said election judge Lowell Webb.

By 11:30 a.m., more than 400 people had already voted at his precinct – just to the north of the University of Pennsylvania and Drexel University. Nearly 200 others, mostly student-age voters, were in line waiting to cast ballots. Compare this to 2004, when 736 voted at the polling site.

Webb said he had worked 35 years as an election official and had never seen a turnout of this magnitude.

The turnout in part was spurred by voter registration drives at the two universities. The precinct registration was more than double 2004 – when Bush received 24 percent of the vote at that polling station.

Precincts across the city told much the same story.

About three miles to the north in a middle-class, high-rise apartment at the northwestern edge of Philadelphia’s border with Bala Cynwyd, 140 people had voted before 11 am. In 2004, only 217 voters cast ballots – 79 percent of them Democratic. Election Judge Michaela Hinton-Graham said voters were waiting for her at 6 a.m., an hour before polls opened.

Three hours after the polls opened at a Germantown neighborhood polling site for the Waterview Recreation Center, 402 people from the two precincts casting ballots there had already voted – despite a voting machine breakdown early in the morning, said election clerk Mora Adams.

In the 2004 election, 796 voters cast ballots in the Waterview site – more than 95 percent of them for then-Democratic Presidential candidate John Kerry. Adams said the turnout was the highest she’d seen in the precinct since Philadelphia’s first black mayor, W. Wilson Goode, was elected in 1982.

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is huge for Obama he needs high turnout in Philly. I am still nervous though. Doesn't help I have a paper due today, so you can imagine I am stressed out.

[Jedieb]

Wow, those are impressive and encouraging turnouts for Obama. I was just watching MSNBC, thanks for the live feed Yog) and they were talking about a percentage of turnout that could rival 1960. It looks like we're easily going to surpass the turnout of 04.

[Morgan Evanar]

I want a landslide so I can ski that thang.

[Jedieb]

I want a landslide so I can ski that thang.

:lol
I may go out of my way to tune into Limpbaugh and O'Reilly just to see the carnage. Although O'Reilly will probably try to get on the bandwagon a bit because after all, he's a 'straight shooter' who doesn't have a dog in this race. :rolleyes

[Yog]

The near record warm weather across the midwest should help turnout:

http://img45.imageshack.us/img45/1756/edtempsid9.png

[Jedieb]

This is why I'll probably be crying like a baby tonight.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/eastside93/2008/11/i-didnt-vote-for-obama-today.php



I Didn't Vote For Obama Today
November 4, 2008, 9:37AM


I have a confession to make.

I did not vote for Barack Obama today.

I've openly supported Obama since March. But I didn't vote for him today.

I wanted to vote for Ronald Woods. He was my algebra teacher at Clark Junior High in East St. Louis, IL. He died 15 years ago when his truck skidded head-first into a utility pole. He spent many a day teaching us many things besides the Pythagorean Theorem. He taught us about Medgar Evers, Ralph Abernathy, John Lewis and many other civil rights figures who get lost in the shadow cast by Martin Luther King, Jr.

But I didn't vote for Mr. Woods.

I wanted to vote for Willie Mae Cross. She owned and operated Crossroads Preparatory Academy for almost 30 years, educating and empowering thousands of kids before her death in 2003. I was her first student. She gave me my first job, teaching chess and math concepts to kids in grades K-4 in her summer program. She was always there for advice, cheer and consolation. Ms. Cross, in her own way, taught me more about walking in faith than anyone else I ever knew.

But I didn't vote for Ms. Cross.

I wanted to vote for Arthur Mells Jackson, Sr. and Jr. Jackson Senior was a Latin professor. He has a gifted school named for him in my hometown. Jackson Junior was the pre-eminent physician in my hometown for over 30 years. He has a heliport named for him at a hospital in my hometown. They were my great-grandfather and great-uncle, respectively.

But I didn't vote for Prof. Jackson or Dr. Jackson.

I wanted to vote for A.B. Palmer. She was a leading civil rights figure in Shreveport, Louisiana, where my mother grew up and where I still have dozens of family members. She was a strong-willed woman who earned the grudging respect of the town's leaders because she never, ever backed down from anyone and always gave better than she got. She lived to the ripe old age of 99, and has a community center named for her in Shreveport.

But I didn't vote for Mrs. Palmer.

I wanted to vote for these people, who did not live to see a day where a Black man would appear on their ballots on a crisp November morning.

In the end, though, I realized that I could not vote for them any more than I could vote for Obama himself.

So who did I vote for?

No one.

I didn't vote. Not for President, anyway.

Oh, I went to the voting booth. I signed, was given my stub, and was walked over to a voting machine. I cast votes for statewide races and a state referendum on water and sewer improvements.

I stood there, and I thought about all of these people, who influenced my life so greatly. But I didn't vote for who would be the 44th President of the United States.

When my ballot was complete, except for the top line, I finally decided who I was going to vote for - and then decided to let him vote for me. I reached down, picked him up, and told him to find Obama's name on the screen and touch it.

And so it came to pass that Alexander Reed, age 5, read the voting screen, found the right candidate, touched his name, and actually cast a vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Oh, the vote will be recorded as mine. But I didn't cast it.

Then again, the person who actually pressed the Obama box and the red "vote" button was the person I was really voting for all along.

It made the months of donating, phonebanking, canvassing, door hanger distributing, sign posting, blogging, arguing and persuading so much sweeter.

So, no, I didn't vote for Barack Obama. I voted for a boy who now has every reason to believe he, too, can grow up to be anything he wants...even President.

:cry

[Lilaena De'Ville]

My hubby is carrying around our ballots today, so he can drop them off while he's driving around for work. He was supposed to do this yesterday. :shakefist

Our 'all mail in' ballot system is weird. Not that I expect our vote in the presidential election to make much of a difference, but there are a lot of measures on Oregon's ballot that are pretty good and I'd like to see passed. :) Also getting to vote for a new sec. of state is fun and exciting, I hope just about anyone but the incumbent wins.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is why I'll probably be crying like a baby tonight.
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/eastside93/2008/11/i-didnt-vote-for-obama-today.php



I Didn't Vote For Obama Today
November 4, 2008, 9:37AM


I have a confession to make.

I did not vote for Barack Obama today.

I've openly supported Obama since March. But I didn't vote for him today.

I wanted to vote for Ronald Woods. He was my algebra teacher at Clark Junior High in East St. Louis, IL. He died 15 years ago when his truck skidded head-first into a utility pole. He spent many a day teaching us many things besides the Pythagorean Theorem. He taught us about Medgar Evers, Ralph Abernathy, John Lewis and many other civil rights figures who get lost in the shadow cast by Martin Luther King, Jr.

But I didn't vote for Mr. Woods.

I wanted to vote for Willie Mae Cross. She owned and operated Crossroads Preparatory Academy for almost 30 years, educating and empowering thousands of kids before her death in 2003. I was her first student. She gave me my first job, teaching chess and math concepts to kids in grades K-4 in her summer program. She was always there for advice, cheer and consolation. Ms. Cross, in her own way, taught me more about walking in faith than anyone else I ever knew.

But I didn't vote for Ms. Cross.

I wanted to vote for Arthur Mells Jackson, Sr. and Jr. Jackson Senior was a Latin professor. He has a gifted school named for him in my hometown. Jackson Junior was the pre-eminent physician in my hometown for over 30 years. He has a heliport named for him at a hospital in my hometown. They were my great-grandfather and great-uncle, respectively.

But I didn't vote for Prof. Jackson or Dr. Jackson.

I wanted to vote for A.B. Palmer. She was a leading civil rights figure in Shreveport, Louisiana, where my mother grew up and where I still have dozens of family members. She was a strong-willed woman who earned the grudging respect of the town's leaders because she never, ever backed down from anyone and always gave better than she got. She lived to the ripe old age of 99, and has a community center named for her in Shreveport.

But I didn't vote for Mrs. Palmer.

I wanted to vote for these people, who did not live to see a day where a Black man would appear on their ballots on a crisp November morning.

In the end, though, I realized that I could not vote for them any more than I could vote for Obama himself.

So who did I vote for?

No one.

I didn't vote. Not for President, anyway.

Oh, I went to the voting booth. I signed, was given my stub, and was walked over to a voting machine. I cast votes for statewide races and a state referendum on water and sewer improvements.

I stood there, and I thought about all of these people, who influenced my life so greatly. But I didn't vote for who would be the 44th President of the United States.

When my ballot was complete, except for the top line, I finally decided who I was going to vote for - and then decided to let him vote for me. I reached down, picked him up, and told him to find Obama's name on the screen and touch it.

And so it came to pass that Alexander Reed, age 5, read the voting screen, found the right candidate, touched his name, and actually cast a vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Oh, the vote will be recorded as mine. But I didn't cast it.

Then again, the person who actually pressed the Obama box and the red "vote" button was the person I was really voting for all along.

It made the months of donating, phonebanking, canvassing, door hanger distributing, sign posting, blogging, arguing and persuading so much sweeter.

So, no, I didn't vote for Barack Obama. I voted for a boy who now has every reason to believe he, too, can grow up to be anything he wants...even President.

:cry

Great story, as a historian I wonder how people 50 years from now will look at this day.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Hey, isn't that voting fraud? I'm just saying. ;)

[Yog]

^^ how is the turnout in Oregon?

Oh, and great story Jedieb.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

http://www.mailtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081104/NEWS/811040309

By Monday afternoon, 62.4 percent of voters had turned in ballots in advance of today's 8 p.m. deadline, fewer than the 69.8 percent who had voted by the same time in 2004.
Democrats have been sending in ballots at a quicker pace than Republicans.
Last week, Walker said the voter turnout was at times 8 percent lower than in 2004. At the beginning of the week, the turnout was on par with 2004.
"We're kind of stumped by the trend this election," said Walker said. "We thought people would come out to vote early."
Republican turnout is typically higher in most local elections, but so far 67 percent of Democrats had turned in ballots and just 59 percent of Republicans. Nonaffiliates, or voters who don't belong to a party, had turned in only 46 percent of their ballots.


We'll see what happens tonight with people rushing to get their ballots turned in by the 8 pm deadline. I know mine isn't quite turned in yet. :uhoh

[Yog]

I could see potential problems arising because of all the people rushing to vote before the polls closes. That could lead to chaos.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah me too, especially when people get off work.

[Jedieb]

I could see potential problems arising because of all the people rushing to vote before the polls closes. That could lead to chaos.

In Virginia as long as you're IN LINE by 7PM, you will get an opportunity to vote. I imagine that poll workers have procedures on how to cut off lines. Hopefully, things will go smoothly when polls close. I've seen scattered reports of problems, but overall things seem to be going well considering the large turnout.

[Yog]

31.73 million people voted before today. Amazing.

[Jedieb]

Indiana's polls are set to close in about an hour. You know, if Indiana were to get called early for Obama then you could just turn the TV off and go to sleep.

[Jedieb]

31.73 million people voted before today. Amazing.

Wow, we might be headed for a turnout of 140,000,000! I believe 04 was around 124M. Numbers like that are very favorable for Obama. I think we'll probably see something between 135M-140M, but I'd LOVE to be way off and short of the actual total.

[Yog]

Indiana's polls are set to close in about an hour. You know, if Indiana were to get called early for Obama then you could just turn the TV off and go to sleep.
... or if Kentucky is too close to call.


Edit - Drudge headline:
SENATE SOURCES: DEMS SEE 58 SEATS; EXIT POLLS RELEASED 5:15 PM ET

[Jedi Master Carr]

31.73 million people voted before today. Amazing.

Wow, we might be headed for a turnout of 140,000,000! I believe 04 was around 124M. Numbers like that are very favorable for Obama. I think we'll probably see something between 135M-140M, but I'd LOVE to be way off and short of the actual total.

Exit polls are coming out right now Economy is number one issue like 62%. I see at least 65% turnout but we could top the all time high which was 68 back in 1908 when Howard Taft beat William Jennings Bryan.

[Yog]

CNN: 62% say economy is top issue
10% say it's Iraq; of those, 63% voted Obama


Edit - some more details. Again, take these with several barrels of salt. It is merely of academic interest at this point because of reasons I explained before:


76% of the country believes it's off on the wrong track.

Bush's approval rating is 27%

More than 60% say the economy is their top voting issue; 9 in ten say the economy is in bad shape; more than 80% are worried about their own condition next year.

Change voters made up 35% of the electorate; 30% wanted someone who shared their values.

One in ten voters are late-deciders..

And CNN tells us that of those who listed Iraq as a key issue, Obama's leading two to one.

[Yog]

Preliminary Exit Poll Results From Fox News

12% will be excited if McCain wins

30% will be scared if McCain wins

32% will be excited if Obama wins

23% will be scared if Obama wins

51% say the government should do more to solve problems

43% say the government is doing too much

70% are worried there will be another terrorist attack

27% say they were contacted by Obama camp

19% say they were contacted by Mccain camp

67% are worried about being able to afford health care

32% are not worried about affording health care

28% oppose offshore oil drilling

68% favor offshore oil drilling

70% predict their taxes will go up under obama

61% expect their taxes will go up if McCain wins

49% expect taxes will go up no matter who wins

68% feel Biden is qualified to be president

38% think Palin is qualified to be president

61% say Michelle Obama would be a good first lady

54% think Cindy McCain would be a good first lady

90% are confident votes will be counted accurately

9% are not sure votes will be counted accurately

24% approve of the job Congress is doing

73% disapprove of the job Congress is doing

50% say Obama has the right experience to be president

60% say McCain has the right experience to be president

57% feel Obama is in touch with people like them

40% feel McCain is in touch with people like them

42% think Obama's positions are too liberal

[Jedieb]

I'm bouncing around here, desperately watching the clock. I will be on the road from 6:00-6:30 and in a near total media blackout! But before I get on the road I wanted to make a quick post about something I think John McCain did a GOOD job of; not playing the Rev. Wright card. Some Republicans, including Palin herself, would not have hesitated using Wright. It could have gotten really ugly. You saw some 527's use Wright these last few days, with little effect, but use him nevertheless. I don't hold McCain accountable for what they did. I actually think he did the right thing by not even denouncing them because they were best left ignored. He made a lot of attacks that were cheap shots, but Wright would have been the worst of all and he didn't go there. I think that's to his credit.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'm bouncing around here, desperately watching the clock. I will be on the road from 6:00-6:30 and in a near total media blackout! But before I get on the road I wanted to make a quick post about something I think John McCain did a GOOD job of; not playing the Rev. Wright card. Some Republicans, including Palin herself, would not have hesitated using Wright. It could have gotten really ugly. You saw some 527's use Wright these last few days, with little effect, but use him nevertheless. I don't hold McCain accountable for what they did. I actually think he did the right thing by not even denouncing them because they were best left ignored. He made a lot of attacks that were cheap shots, but Wright would have been the worst of all and he didn't go there. I think that's to his credit.

I was thankful that he didn't do that as well. At least he didn't become a complete scum bag
Man things are wild right now I am trying not to get too excited about the exit polls. I so don't want to go to class tonight.

[Jedieb]

I'm bouncing around here, desperately watching the clock. I will be on the road from 6:00-6:30 and in a near total media blackout! But before I get on the road I wanted to make a quick post about something I think John McCain did a GOOD job of; not playing the Rev. Wright card. Some Republicans, including Palin herself, would not have hesitated using Wright. It could have gotten really ugly. You saw some 527's use Wright these last few days, with little effect, but use him nevertheless. I don't hold McCain accountable for what they did. I actually think he did the right thing by not even denouncing them because they were best left ignored. He made a lot of attacks that were cheap shots, but Wright would have been the worst of all and he didn't go there. I think that's to his credit.

I was thankful that he didn't do that as well. At least he didn't become a complete scum bag
Man things are wild right now I am trying not to get too excited about the exit polls. I so don't want to go to class tonight.

Back in the stoneage known as the late 80's and 90's we didn't have these fancy Internets. Can't you take a laptop with you? Honestly, I would be a complete mess if I had to go to any kind of class tonight of all nights.

[Yog]

Exit poll leak from the most suspicious source possible, but I'll take it as a good sign..

Drudge: EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...

Knowing Drudge though, you can't trust anything he writes. :shakefist

[Yog]

4 minutes until the first polls close!!!

Calm down your nerves listening to this:

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[Jedi Master Carr]

first polls have closed won't know anything till 7PM, I so wish I could skip class. We got a petition going to make him let us watch the election or something.

[Yog]

Late RNC robocall in Florida: "Castro wants Obama to win."

:headbash

[Figrin D'an]

As was mentioned earlier, don't trust any sort of exit polling this early in the evening. Once it passes 9PM eastern and a lot of the midwest/plains states close and things start to take shape, then we'll have an decent idea of how the chips are going to fall.

Anyway, the girlfriend just finished voting, then she's coming over for dinner and we're going to hang out and watch the returns as the come in.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I have to go, I hope the professor lets us watch the results in class or something.

[Yog]

Indiana 3%
Obama 50% 42,802
McCain 49% 41,308

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#INP00

Kentucky 9%
Obama 48% 83,210
McCain 51% 87,042

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/state/#KY

(some democratic leaning presincts counted in Kentucky so, don't get excited yet)

[Yog]

Exit poll results (take with HUGE grains of salt)

GA 47-51
FL 52-49
IA 58-42
IN 52-48
MI 60-39
MN 56-39
MO52-48
NC 52-48
NH 57-43
NM 56-43
NV 55-45
OH 54-45
PA 57-42
VA 55-45
WV 45-55
WI 58-42

National 54-44

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/04/exit-polls-2008-see-the-f_n_140986.html


The head to head exit polls just were sent to the Huffington Post by a Democratic source. These are traditionally unreliable and should be taken with a grain of salt (see: Kerry's winning margins in 2004). For what it's worth, they project a big night for Obama in several of the key swing states.

[Yog]

Kentucky projected McCain by CNN.

Vermont projected Obama by CNN.

Next polls closing right now, 7 pm EST

Georgia
South Carolina
Vermont
Virginia
Florida


South Carolina too close to call? :D

NH 1%
Obama - 67%

[Cat X]

The Revolution will be televised. Standby

[Yog]

Watch the CNN coverage. Holy batman on a stick!

They have a hologram of an anchor running in studio, talking to Wolf Blitzer. They're hologramming her in from 1,200 miles away.

She's standing inside a specially engineered tent ringed with 35 Hi-Def cameras, which are generating a 3D image which is then put in the CNN election room. It's like the Princess Leia hologram from R2D2, "help me Obi Want Kenobi, you're my only hope!".

:lol

[Yog]

Leaked Obama campaign internals: "Virginia and NC are looking good, but FL is a straight toss-up."

[Ryan Pode]

Mark Warner, democratic candidate won the Virignia senate seat, taking it away from John Warner (no relation), a republican.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Watching early election coverage is mind numbing. They start crunching numbers when just 100 ballots have been counted or something, and it just seems silly to keep talking about how its too early to make a prediction. :)

[Yog]

7.30 pm EST

Ohio, West Virginia, North Carolina closing...


CBS calls west virginia for Mccain.

Obama leading in Ohio.

Fox calling Delaware for Obama.

Souh Carolina projected for McCain.

[Yog]

Next up, 8 pm EST: A crapload of states....

Pennsylvania called for Obama!!!

[Ryan Pode]

Next up, 8 pm EST: A crapload of states....

Pennsylvania called for Obama!!!

Yes. That's huge.

[Dasquian Belargic]

The BBC is reporting:

McCain 34 / Obama 103

:o

[Cat X]

Next up, 8 pm EST: A crapload of states....

Pennsylvania called for Obama!!!

Yes. That's huge.

That was McCain only possible route to victory.

Now if this foul noxious network here would work I could watch the developing lamenting of Fox :D

[Yog]

To put the importance of PA in perspective, if one of these states get called for Obama, it will put Obama over 270 and it's game over for McCain:

Florida
Ohio
Indiana
Virginia
Colorado
North Carolina

AND, looking at combination of early results, exit poll cross data, and based on what I hear from various sources, it is either close or leaning Obama in ALL of these...

[Lilaena De'Ville]

CNN is not calling PA for anyone as no real votes had been counted.

[Yog]

CNN is not calling PA for anyone as no real votes had been counted.
MSNBC, ABC, BBC, NPR all called it though.


On the other hand, neither Fox or CNN called it, and I am not sure about CBS.

[Ryan Pode]

Yahoo is calling PA for Obama.

edit: CBS just gave Obama PA.

[Yog]

Fox calling Pennsylvania for Obama!!!

[Dasquian Belargic]

What is taking Virginia so long? :shakefist

[Ryan Pode]

What is taking Virginia so long? :shakefist

Hey. We'll be done when we're done. Just got to wait for all the NOVA's and Tidewater votes. I'd be willing to bet much of Roanoke/Lynchburg to Richmond areas are in.

[Yog]

What is taking Virginia so long? :shakefist
So far, they counted a lot of the rural areas and conservative precincts in the south, but not so much urban Virginia or the Northern areas, which means McCain is actually leading at this point. I think Obama will win there though once the cities and north get counted. (better known as "fake Virginia" :lol)


Edit: Georgia called McCain.

Edit 2: CNN calls PA for Obama, finally.

[Yog]

The graphs / maps at New York Times are very good:
http://www.nytimes.com/

[Dasquian Belargic]

Ohio for Obama according to Fox

61 / 175 says BBC

[Ryan Pode]

CNN is giving Obama: Michigan, Wisconsin, NY, and Minnesota to raise his count to 174. So he's getting real close. He might win before it gets to California.

[Yog]

Ohio for Obama according to Fox

61 / 175 says BBC
It's game over now. Watch Fox News rapidly go in meltdown mode :D


Arizona also too close to call.....

[Cat X]

Come on Florida, make up for your misreble ability to vote in 2000 and be the state that hands it to Obama

[Dasquian Belargic]

Is there a live feed from Fox available online?

[Yog]

Is there a live feed from Fox available online?

I am watching it through TVUPlayer right now:
http://pages.tvunetworks.com/downloads/player.html

[Rutabaga]

Ohio for Obama according to Fox

61 / 175 says BBC

I just about fainted when I read that. Please let it be true.

The other great news I've heard so far is that apparently Elizabeth Dole has LOST HER SEAT in North Carolina!!! :dance :eee

Weird...I'm listening to the POTUS '08 channel on XM, and at the McCain rally in Phoenix, they're posting a completely bizarre electoral college count and making it look like it's a really close race :mischief.

I have been feeling nervous and full of adrenaline all day.

Our activities department at work did a mock election today, vote and you get a cookie. About 40-some people voted (I think it was residents and staff combined), and Obama won by 3 votes :).

And on a really serious note, I have loved--LOVED--seeing the long lines of people waiting to vote. I really warms my heart to see so many people participating in the political process, something which so many people take for granted and which many people in other countries around the world would literally die for.

[Yog]

^^
It's true, I heard it on Fox again, and they are pretty resigned about Ohio. Even though only 9% is counted, the composition of counties remaining favours Obama.

also:


A Republican on BBC News says an insider in the McCain camp told her they've have lost Florida.

.. and the guy on MSNBC who is supposed to know Florida inside out says it is going blue.


Edit: MSNBC also calls Ohio for Obama now!

[Dasquian Belargic]

76 / 195

:o

landslide ahoy?

[Jedieb]

OHIO GOES BLUE!!!!! :crack

And Obama has closed to within 18,000 in VA with more than 30% of the vote left. Most of the counties to report are on the east coast so Obama should pull ahead soon. And the Florida numbers and counties look goof for Obama as well. It looks like we heading north of 350. :)

[Yog]

76 / 195

:o

landslide ahoy?
Depends how you define landslide. The prediction me and Jedieb posted earlier is looking mighty good now:

http://www.mneh.org/pics/debatt/president-08/prediction.jpg

[Yog]

New Mexico goes Obama!

VA 90-10 on Intrade for Obama!

[Jedieb]

The only difference with our maps are MO and IN. I think you have a better shot at getting it right, but we may both end up getting one of them wrong and Obama's total may be up to 375!

[Dasquian Belargic]

124 / 200

:rollin

[Yog]

If McCain gets every remaining state except for Washington, Oregon, California and Hawaii, he still wouldn't have 270..

[Jedieb]

McCain's lead is down to 7,000 in VA and there's 25% left! :crack

[Jedieb]

One quick note about VA, Obama is doing very well in Northern VA, but he's actually UNDERPERFORMING Kerry in the Western part of the state. Honestly, I can only attribute this to the Bigot Vote.

[Jedieb]

OBAMA'S PULLED AHEAD IN VIRGINIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :crack

[Yog]

OBAMA'S PULLED AHEAD IN VIRGINIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :crack

Obama is winning there. Mark my words.

Oh yeah, and watch him win Florida too.

Edit:
Iowa - called Obama
Utah - called McCain
Nevada - too early
Montana - too close

[Cat X]

2pm news in Australia - America poisd to have a BLack President, some stations calling it right now

[Yog]

2pm news in Australia - America poisd to have a BLack President, some stations calling it right now
Yog called it when Ohio was called. It's game over, seriously. It's fun to watch which way the battleground states are swinging though. :)

... senate race so far:
Democrats: 53
Republicans: 32

[Yog]

Yog calls it: Obama wins Virginia.

The remaining precincts for McCain reached a threshold where recovering is impossible.

[Jedieb]

yep, Obama started really putting it away when they got into the early 80%'s. Thank god. It may only end up being a 2pt win, but it's a win nevertheless.

And some early numbers from Florida; It looks like Obama is winning around 35% of the Cuban vote(which is very good for Dems, and will boost his hispanic numbers in the state overall.) In other words, he got my sisiter's vote while my parents, aunts, and uncles still cling to the politics of the 60's and 70's. Make no mistake, when the idiotic robocalls went out in Miami today saying the Fidel had officially endorsed Obama they were aimed right at my parents. And they probably believed every word of it. While my sister simply rolled her eyes and hung up the phone. She lives in St. Pete, but she's very representative of younger Cubans who live in S. Florida.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow I am so happy, I wish I could have watched Ohio go blue. We heard about it in class. It will be over in 30 minutes.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

Lord I hope Obama wins Nevada *crosses fingers*

[Jedieb]

Al Franken has an early lead, 43-40. This is the second race that I'm really focused on. A Franken win is icing on the cake. Specifically, it's salt in the wounds for right wing talk radio blowhards. And you know which two will choke on his victory the most; Limpbaugh and O'Reilly. Hang on Al, make me giddy tonight! :evil

[Pierce Tondry]

The Virginia State Board of Elections phone system went down today. About 20 to 30 people came to the Department of Taxation's contact center to use our phone system as a backup. Crazyness!

I've predicted for about 3 weeks now that Obama would win based on my tracking of the betting odds being offered around the internet. It's not exactly an issue-based methodology, but I wanted to see if it would work and it sure seems to have. :)

Also, what platform issues are Al Franken running on? I know nothing about his candidacy.

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL I know I love Franken I would love to see him win.

[Yog]

And you know which two will choke on his victory the most; Limpbaugh and O'Reilly. Hang on Al, make me giddy tonight! :evil
O'Reilly was on Letterman the other day, and said the odds were 5:1 in Obama's favor. He has also been somewhat respectful after Obama visited him. I think he will take it calmly.

Limbaugh and Hannity though....

[Jedieb]

And you know which two will choke on his victory the most; Limpbaugh and O'Reilly. Hang on Al, make me giddy tonight! :evil
O'Reilly was on Letterman the other day, and said the odds were 5:1 in Obama's favor. He has also been somewhat respectful after Obama visited him. I think he will take it calmly.

Limbaugh and Hannity though....

I don't think an Obama victory is going to drive O'Reilly nuts. He knew that was coming. I'm talking about Franken. Franken's made MILLIONS out of mocking O'Reilly. He's caused that guy grief for years.

Basically, Franken is running as a Democrat in the mold of his Minnesota hero, Paul Wellstone. Expect him to be very liberal on social issues and a strong supporter of Obama's Health Care plans. His opponent, Coleman, has been very close to Bush and his favorability rating in the state is less than 50%. The third party candidate is the wild card in that race. He's getting a decent amount of the vote and there's no telling who he's pulling more votes from.

[Yog]

Colorado looks mighty good. I can't imagine McCain turning it around. Votes are only 33%% in, but Obama got a 14% lead.

Rocky Mountain News even called it for Obama:
http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/nov/04/obama-leading-colorado/

[Jedi Master Carr]

Congrats Jedieb Obama won Virginia and he should be president in a minute.

[Liam Jinn]

And President Obama takes the race!

Edit: Sorry, President-Elect Obama. ;)

[Yog]

The networks all calling it.

[Daniella Tur'ilian]

:D Wonderful.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its a great historical day. All the history that has lead to this day. Years from now this will be remembered.

[Yog]

Dick Cheney's Vader suit on fire:
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[Lilaena De'Ville]

At least now black people can't whine about how the white people are keeping them down. The Man isn't white anymore.

[Yog]

At least now black people can't whine about how the white people are keeping them down. The Man isn't white anymore.
Yeah, I am tired of arguing about the Bradley effect.

(My father has been really worried about it. Also the media has been talking about it ad nauseum)

[Park Kraken]

Its a great historical day. All the history that has lead to this day. Years from now this will be remembered.

Yep. Black Tuesday it is. (no pun intended).

[Yog]

McCain concession speech now.

So far the speech is very classy and graceful.

In the meanwhile, Colorado and Florida is also called for Obama.

[Jedi Master Carr]

He has made a very classy speech.

[Cat X]

Black Man


White House.

And watching the Republicans so shattered as McCain concedes is soooooo bloody awesome. But MCCain himself I feel sorry for - he was a much better man than to be defeated like this after Bush's crapfest.

Tough luck, you voted against a true moment in history. You just saw a President who will be on your money and who knows, maybe on Rushmore. Just by getting elected, he stands alone as the greatest African American in history. Savor it. You will not see such a moment in your lives again.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

It always cracked me up that people said he was so old he might die in office... they DO realize that his mother is still going strong, right?

A good speech by John McCain... :(

[Jedieb]

Coleman has pulled ahead of Franken by 5,000 votes. They're both at 42% with 36% of the vote in. This race is going to go into the early morning hours. Wow.

Nice concession speech by McCain. He was much classier than a few of the people in his audience. Florida has just gone to Obama. It looks like I'm going to be 48 or 49 out of 51 on my electoral map. Not bad. :)

[Rutabaga]

I was actually watching the live Daily Show/Colbert Report show on Comedy Central and got to hear Jon Stewart announce the news. I immediately tuned to CNN just to make sure he wasn't yanking my chain, and it was official there too. Wow. I honestly felt an entire cultural shift at the moment, as if America has finally leaped into the 21st century. What a beautiful moment.

And just for a moment of silly levity....

http://i207.photobucket.com/albums/bb164/Rutabaga64/election-outcome.jpg

[CMJ]

Great speech by McCain. Ever since I read his book years ago, I've loved him. I was total McCainiac in 2000 and was shattered when he lost so big on Super Tuesday...and thus the nomination.

I'll always believe he would've made a fantastic President. But 2000 was his time....this was not.

A truly momentous moment in USA history. The great stain of our founding has been wiped away in many ways. Someone who was counted as three fifths of a person 230 years ago is now the leader of our country.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Re: Oregon Senate Race

ARRRRRGH I HATE JEFF MERKLEY :shakefist I hope Smith can pull this off ^_^;

[Jedieb]

At least now black people can't whine about how the white people are keeping them down. The Man isn't white anymore.

Black people in this country still face significant problems. The dismal statistics that young black men face in this country aren't going away because of this electoral butt kicking. The problems are STILL there. Tonight is a victory for ALL Americans, regardless of their race. It's another step in a direction when race won't matter.

We're not there yet, but we're getting closer. Tonight is a good night, a great night. For EVERY American.

[Yog]

It looks like I'm going to be 48 or 49 out of 51 on my electoral map. Not bad. :)
Yeah, the only state I messed up on was Montana. My prediction almost perfectly mirrored the final results.

It looks like 367/171

[Figrin D'an]

In other election news...

We won't know the results of much of the congressional seats until tomorrow. However, as of right now, projections have the Dems at 56 seats in the Senate, with 4 races still too close to call. It'll come down to the wire for trying to reach 60 seat filibuster proof majority.

[Cat X]

It looks like I'm going to be 48 or 49 out of 51 on my electoral map. Not bad. :)
Yeah, the only state I messed up on was Montana. My prediction almost perfectly mirrored the final results.

It looks like 367/171

I got a massive :toxx: to deliver on.

And it makes me truly happy.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Great speech by McCain. Ever since I read his book years ago, I've loved him. I was total McCainiac in 2000 and was shattered when he lost so big on Super Tuesday...and thus the nomination.

I'll always believe he would've made a fantastic President. But 2000 was his time....this was not.

A truly momentous moment in USA history. The great stain of our founding has been wiped away in many ways. Someone who was counted as three fifths of a person 230 years ago is now the leader of our country.

You couldn't have said it better. It is amazing, considering African-Americans built the white house as slaves. It is a very historic day.

[Jedieb]

Wow.
Franken 557,093 42%
Coleman
(Incumbent) 557,063 42%

46% Reporting

This race is going to be amazing. And unless there's some kind of break we'll probably see a recount.

[Yog]

Obama speech is on!

[Morgan Evanar]

Oh man Florida went blue. Dade county by 60%!

[Jedieb]

I don't think Franken is going to pull it out. Oh well, you can't win them all. I'm just going to savor the moment and let it sink it.

[Rutabaga]

I heard on CNN (I think) that the margin of victory for Obama in the popular vote is the biggest one since LBJ won. Over 3 million votes.

Here's the oddest thing tonight for me...I have never, ever been a fan of Jesse Jackson. I really do not like him at all. But the sight of him standing in Grant Park with tears coming out of his eyes and appearing to be on the verge of breaking down into sobs was very, very moving.

Oh, and you just had to love how Obama and Biden made sure that Biden's mom got some props from the people in Grant Park! :hug

[CMJ]

I heard on CNN (I think) that the margin of victory for Obama in the popular vote is the biggest one since LBJ won. Over 3 million votes.


Of course since population is so much larger now....Obama would've had to have won by like 5-6M votes I'd guess to match the "real" margin.

[Byl Laprovik]

Welp, I have my Election day bourbon now, and I'm basking in the afterglow of a wonderful election. I'm so proud of my country right now :)

[Liam Jinn]

Welp, I have my Election day bourbon now, and I'm basking in the afterglow of a wonderful election. I'm so proud of my country right now :)

I've got my beer, and on the same page as you.

[Cat X]

"Tonight, Barack Obama showed Sarah Palin what a community organizer does, by organizing enough people to send her back to her community."

Quote of the year.

Bye bye idiot! Oh and dont bother in 2012, you just suck

[Shawn]

Congrats, Florida, on not screwing this one up. :D

[Dasquian Belargic]

The BBC has Obama and McCain's speeches up, for anyone who wants to relive the magic:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7710025.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7710079.stm

:D

[Jaime Tomahawk]

http://www.palinaspresident.us/

:D


Congrats, Florida, on not screwing this one up.

Indeed, It's Alaska that's officially the craphole of the USA now - Ted Stevens a CONVICTED Felon looks like he gets re-elected. What. The. HELL? Are they just plain retarded up there or what?

[TheHolo.Net]

YAY! Colorado got it right, though the majority in my county didn't. :\

[Yog]

Newsweek on Palin


--“NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent ‘tens of thousands’ more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide … said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.”

--“McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin during the campaign, and aides kept him in the dark about the details of her spending on clothes because they were sure he would be offended. Palin asked to speak along with McCain at his Arizona concession speech Tuesday night, but campaign strategist Steve Schmidt vetoed the request.”


Here is how the popular vote stands:
McCain 55,372,679 (47%)
Obama 62,430,518 (53%)

Total: 117,803,197

7,057,839 vote lead


Senate standing so far:
55 democrats (+5)
41 republicans (-5)

House so far:
252 democrats (+18)
173 republicans (-18)

...and there is now speculation early votes for Georgia may not been counted yet, which means, the state could be wide open.

[Yog]

The world congratulates Obama on victory :)
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/05/world.reaction/index.html


More from Newsweek:


# On the Sunday night before the last debate, McCain's core group of advisers—Steve Schmidt, Rick Davis, adman Fred Davis, strategist Greg Strimple, pollster Bill McInturff and strategy director Sarah Simmons—met to decide whether to tell McCain that the race was effectively over, that he no longer had a chance to win. The consensus in the room was no, not yet, not while he still had "a pulse."

# Palin launched her attack on Obama's association with William Ayers, the former Weather Underground bomber, before the campaign had finalized a plan to raise the issue. McCain's advisers were working on a strategy that they hoped to unveil the following week, but McCain had not signed off on it, and top adviser Mark Salter was resisting.

# McCain also was reluctant to use Obama's incendiary pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, as a campaign issue. The Republican had set firm boundaries: no Jeremiah Wright; no attacking Michelle Obama; no attacking Obama for not serving in the military. McCain balked at an ad using images of children that suggested that Obama might not protect them from terrorism. Schmidt vetoed ads suggesting that Obama was soft on crime (no Willie Hortons). And before word even got to McCain, Schmidt and Salter scuttled a "celebrity" ad of Obama dancing with talk-show host Ellen DeGeneres (the sight of a black man dancing with a lesbian was deemed too provocative).

# At the GOP convention in St. Paul, Palin was completely unfazed by the boys' club fraternity she had just joined. One night, Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter went to her hotel room to brief her. After a minute, Palin sailed into the room wearing nothing but a towel, with another on her wet hair. She told them to chat with her laconic husband, Todd. "I'll be just a minute," she said.

# Officials at the FBI and the White House told the Obama campaign that they believed a foreign entity or organization sought to gather information on the evolution of both camps' policy positions—information that might be useful in negotiations with a future administration. The Feds assured the Obama team that it had not been hacked by its political opponents. (Obama technical experts later speculated that the hackers were Russian or Chinese.) A security firm retained by the Obama campaign took steps to secure its computer system and end the intrusion. White House and FBI officials had no comment earlier this week.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167581

[Rutabaga]

Wow. The Newsweek stuff is really, really interesting. Now that the election is over, I think the lid is going to come flying off Pandora's box, and we're going to really see all the ugliness that was happening behind the scenes. The post-mortem on the McCain-Palin campaign is going to be extremely brutal. When watching McCain's concession speech last night, I could sense the tension between him and Palin. If he hadn't selected her, there is no doubt that this would have been a very different campaign. I also can't honestly believe that Palin is considered a viable candidate for 2012. She appeals only to the radical evangelical base, which is now going to really fall out of favor with the Republican party after the failures in this election. I saw a poll last week asking Republicans who they would support in 2012, and Palin was way behind in 3rd place. Romney was 1st with about 40% of the vote, from what I recall.

The Republican party is really at a crossroads right now. They really are going to have to make some changes to become a more viable party on a national level. They need to reject the neocons who have taken over the party in the last few years and become more the traditional Republican party, which has more noble goals than scaring people to death and giving as much money as possible to the richest 1% in the country.

I'm just sorry to see that here in California, Proposition h8te passed. That is a terrible shame. :(

[Yog]

"Help me Obi Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope!" :lol

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