Gustav and Hannah...and IKE

[Jedi Master Carr]

When was the last time we had two Hurricanes hit within a few days of each other? Right now that looks possible since both are moving towards land. I be more worried about Gustav being in the gulf. Though Hanna could become a problem too.

[Yog]

Here is a pretty good site to track developments. I check in on the reports, projections and their message board from time to time:
http://www.hurricanecity.com/

I think Gustav will strengthen in the next few days as it travels over hot water. I am guessing a cat 3 or so once it makes lanfall.

[CMJ]

When was the last time we had two Hurricanes hit within a few days of each other?

Ummm, like several times in the last few years.

[Jedi Master Carr]

When was the last time we had two Hurricanes hit within a few days of each other?

Ummm, like several times in the last few years.

lol oh well I thought it was a rare thing.

[Morgan Evanar]

I am worried about Hannah :(

[Yog]

Gustav has been upgraded to category 2 with 100 mph winds. There is plenty of hot water to travel over yet. Forecasts warn it could grow to cat 4.

[Morgan Evanar]

Gustav is now a cat 3 with 125 mph winds.

[Yog]

New vortex reading: Category 4, approaching cat 5 fast with 945mb pressure and 145mph winds.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is looking really bad. It looks worse than Katrina.

[Park Kraken]

Not quite yet. You gotta remember that Katrina, at one time in the Gulf, was a Category 5 Hurricane with 175 mph winds. And although her winds had decreased to Category 3 strength by landfall, her internal pressure was still that of a Category 5 when she made landfall, hence the high storm surge.

I've been keeping intense track of the storm as of late, as it is my hobby, and a concern of mine. The following sites should help to keep track of both storms, and another system about to develop over the Cape Verde Islands;

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ - main hurricane site, where the latest advisories can be found.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml - where the latest satellite images can be obtained at of the storms.

http://flhurricane.com/ - this site has the discussion forums where the storm talks go on at, and the main page lists all weather warnings that are issued in relation to a hurricane (but they also do list all weather warnings issued period for florida, hurricane related or not).

Recon confirms that Gustav is now apparently a Category 5 Hurricane.

[CMJ]

The latest Recon Fix I saw was 943mbs. That's not a Category 5.

[Park Kraken]

Well the report came from FEMA, so maybe it is false. But the station I was watching at the time said an emergency conference had been called because Gustav had become a Cat. 5 storm. But since I've heard nothing from the NHC or my other sources, I am discounting the report.

BTW, strength is measured in wind speeds, not pressure. There have been winds of Category 5 strength before with pressure much higher, like of a Category 4. Unfortunatly, recon reports aren't avilable to me right now with a acting up internet connection.

[CMJ]

True measure of strength of a Tropical Cyclone is internal pressure though. At least to me. It's how they are ranked as per the NHC on their "alltime" lists.

I actually think it's more representative of "destruction potential" as well.

[Park Kraken]

Oh I know it's more represantive for the destructive potential of a cyclone. Wind does a fair amount of damage, but it is water, particulary the storm surge, which is created from the low internal pressure, that does the vast majority of the killing and coastal damage.

Personally if I had it my way, hurricanes would be rated on their internal pressure rather than their wind speeds. If Katrina had been rated by her pressure, she would have remained a five into landfall and people wouldn't have relaxed nearly as much when her winds lessened.

BTW, 5PM Advisory from the NHC maintains Gustav as a Category 4, with 150 mph winds and a pressure of 942 MB, or 27.82".

EDIT: and to give people some idea of the size the storm, it's storming here at my house in Central Florida, and it's a rain band from Gustav that's causing the rain.

[Morgan Evanar]

Yup, SoFLa is getting rainbands as well. It's goddamn hot and humid, too. 85+ at night!

[Yog]

Wazzup guys

http://mneh.org/pics/misc/gustav1.jpg

[Yog]

On the note of comparing destructive potential compared to Katrina... not to alarm people or be overly dramatic, but it could actually be worse. The reason is, it's path is eerily similar to Betsy '65 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Betsy). This time, the center of the storm is projected to be on NO's westside, which means flooding Mississippi river and the lakes on the west bank:


Unless something dramatic changes Gustav will be worse than Katrina for Louisiana. The west bank of the Mississippi River had limited flooding from Katrina. Gustav will have massive flooding on the west bank. Our wetland will be destroyed by this event. Most people just don't know how fragile they are. It is very sad here right now.

--Previous Message--
: NO will be in the NE quadrant. More water
: will be pulled into the lakes that Katrina,
: the theory is water will be pulled up the
: Mississippi (rumor was Betsy pulled water up
: the river and this is a very similar
: track),flooding will be much more
: widespread. Rain will be heavier, winds
: will be 100+mph sustained over the city.
:
:
: --Previous Message--
: Just am amatuer's observation, but I would
: say
: much more wind and surge, but ultimately it
: comes down to the levies. If they hold, who
: knows, it might be less.
:
: --Previous Message--
: If this come to fact, this will be the
: absolute worse case for New Orleans. You can
: correct me if you feel I am wrong, but this
: would be Katrina times 10 or more.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Not trying to be dramatic either, Donna, but
: in word, yes.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Do you think this storm has the potential to
: be another Katrina? Not trying to be
: dramatic, just from how things are panning
: out?
:
: --Previous Message--
: Thats what 130 knots converts to. Its the
: last
: point given before the "inland"
: stage of 120 knots. If that became
: reality.....well.
:
: --Previous Message--
: The entire portion of La. from Salt Mine to
: New Orleans will recieve unbelievable
: devastation that will take more than several
: years to recover. There is simply no
: wetlands to speak of to reduce the surge
: that is coming, even the Lakes Maurepas and
: Pontchartrain will surge to heights not seen
: except for computer models. Wind destruction
: of trees and property is going to be
: staggering. Good Luck to all who will be
: involved in this catastrophic event.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Lots of flooding in New Orleans then, and
: that
: was before the problem with coastal erosion
: and subsidence. Yes this track is near a
: worst case scenario for New Orleans, even if
: the eye itself is not felt there. NE
: Quadrant and lots of water...if the track
: pans out.
:
: --Previous Message--
: As Jim is showing with his
: "hurtrack" program, this places
: New Orleans under the NE quad with
: hurricane-force winds and potentially
: devastating surge.
:
: --Previous Message--
: Here it is. I may have to change my thinking
: too. But I'm gonna wait till tomorrow.
: Either way La. coast gonna take a terrific
: hit.

http://members.boardhost.com/hurricanecity/msg/1220154450.html

Edit: I am not talking about worse in terms of human loss, because people seem to be evacuated to a large extent, but material damage.

[Jedi Master Carr]

will New Orleans survive this time? I don't think those levees will hold and the city could be underwater.

[Park Kraken]

The storm has been on a weakening trend as of late and it doesn't seem to be just because of an eyewall replacement cycle. It seems Gustav was more affected going over Cuba that forecasters previously thought.

The eye is actually displaced from the low level circulation, and unless it disappears and is replaced by a new eye, then the storm will probably weaken to less than a major hurricane and stay that way until landfall.

[Jedi Master Carr]

The storm has been on a weakening trend as of late and it doesn't seem to be just because of an eyewall replacement cycle. It seems Gustav was more affected going over Cuba that forecasters previously thought.

The eye is actually displaced from the low level circulation, and unless it disappears and is replaced by a new eye, then the storm will probably weaken to less than a major hurricane and stay that way until landfall.

Actually they are saying it is going to strengthen and become a 4 tomorrow morning.

[Park Kraken]

Actually they are saying it is going to strengthen and become a 4 tomorrow morning.

Well yeah thats what they are saying, but they said it would maintain Category 4 strength after crossing Cuba and that it wouldn't weaken significantly, but that is what happened anyways. The hurricane has already passed over the loop current, where the warmest waters of the Gulf are.

Now don't get me wrong, Gustav is still a very dangerous hurricane.

[Yog]

Yeah, it is now projected to remain strong cat 3 until landfall (but probably not cat 4), and heading on a path westward away from New Orleans, so this is no longer any worst case scenario for that city at least. I think they dodged the bullet on this one. Could be pretty bad still along the coast, wherever it hits.

[Csephion Draxus]

Considering the levees (at an optimist's appraisal) are currently rated for Cat II or III protection, I don't think a bullet has been dodged at all. This is going to really suck.

[Yog]

Multiple live stream coverage here:
http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

The hurricane made landfall, and dropped to cat 2 strength. I am still fairly optimistic at least in regards to New Orleans, because of the location of the eye and the drop in strength. It will do a lot of damage though, I'm sure.

Edit: OH NO!!! Watching live stream WDSU 6 now. I just saw some video footage of water topping over the levies at the Industrial Canal, New Orleans. And the water is still rising. This is very worrying.. :(

Edit 2: I estimate there is still about a foot from the water level to the top to the level, and the water coming over are just waves at this point. The levies seem to be holding so far. The reporters are concerned about Harvey canal though, which does not have the same protection. Not sure what is going on there.

Edit 3: Looks like the levies / flood walls at Industrial Canal are holding pretty well so far.. no breaches reported yet.

[Yog]

A comparison with Katrina:


Gustav compared to Katrina

Although both officially a category 3 storm at, or close to, landfall, Gustav is a very different storm to Katrina. The main differences are in size and central pressure, as well as track. Katrina passed 40 miles or so to the east of New Orleans, and Gustav should remain 50 miles + to the west of New Orleans. Also, Katrina’s wind field was much bigger than Gustav’s, with hurricane force winds extending 110 miles, compared to Gustav’s 70 miles. In addition, Katrina’s sustained winds were near 127 mph, compared to Gustav’s 115 mph, and more notably Katrina’s minimum central pressure at landfall was a very intense 920 mb – the 3rd lowest recorded for a landfalling hurricane. Gustav’s is 956 mb. In addition, out in the Gulf of Mexico, Katrina had been a severe category 5 hurricane with sustained winds up to 175 mph at its peak, and affected the offshore platforms with category 4 and 5 winds. Gustav has been a moderate category 3 through most of its track through the offshore platforms. The maximum significant wave height recorded for Katrina was 55 feet in the Gulf, which was the highest ever recorded, and so far for Gustav has been 30 ft.

Katrina’s storm surge was 24-28 feet along the western Mississippi coast across a path of about 20 miles, tapering to a height of 17-22 feet along the eastern MS coast. The maximum high water mark observation was 27.8 feet at Pass Christian, MS. Surges in eastern Louisiana generally ranged from 10 to 19 feet. For Gustav we are expecting maximums of around 13 ft in the landfall area, and 6-9 feet in eastern Louisiana.

Rainfall was not a driver of the loss or damage for Katrina, although up to 20-40 inches of rainfall in total were recorded in several locations across Louisiana, parts of Mississippi, and western Tennessee and Kentucky as the remnants of Katrina moved inland. Gustav is forecast to produce similar amounts of up to 20 inches in western Louisiana and eastern Texas, although if it stalls inland, rainfall totals could be more.

http://www.rms.com/ClientResources/Catupdates/CatUpdatePublic.asp?event_id=2652

And then of course, the most obvious and decisive difference, the flood protection / levies actually seem to be holding. At least so far.

[Park Kraken]

Gustav is approaching Morgan City now, and winds are down to 105 mph. In addition, a special advisory issued by the NHC at 1:30 PM has Hanna upgraded to Hurricane status, with 75 mph winds. The forecast intensity has been bumped up as well, having Hanna making landfall later in the week on the South Carolina/Georgia border as a borderline Cat 1/2 storm.

[Yog]

I somehow messed up the URL in that link I posted earlier. Sorry about that :(

Here is the live stream video coverage:
http://www.maroonspoon.com/wx/gustav.html

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is good thing it wasn't worse. Still should be some bad flooding but nothing like Katrina.

[Jedieb]

The geniuses responsible for naming hurricanes have named the storm right behind Hanna..... IKE! Let the Tina Turner jokes commence! :evil

[Csephion Draxus]

The geniuses responsible for naming hurricanes have named the storm right behind Hanna..... IKE! Let the Tina Turner jokes commence! :evil

It appears that the eye wall replenishment cycle is wearing...a turtleneck sweater! :lol

[Park Kraken]

Gustav is now a depression and pouring tons of torrential rains upon the Midwestern states.

Hanna is strengthening and finally moving NNW torwards the carolinas.

Ike has rapidly intensified from a Tropical Storm earlier today into a Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds at 11PM this evening, and may become a Category 5 hurricane as early as tomorrow morning.

He should be weakened by wind shear in two-three days time, but the shear should lessen and he is forecast by the end of five days time to be in the Central Bahamas as a Cat 4, making a beeline for a landfall on Florida's east coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral.

Josephine is being impacted by wind shear, the storm is expected to slowly progress westwards, and by the end of five days be in Ike's current position, but as a weak depression, maybe even become dissipated, from the strong wind shear.

[Ryan Pode]

They're telling people to evacuate here because of Hanna. I think my roommates and I are going to try to tough it out.

[Jedi Master Carr]

If it's a one you might be fine. Where are you at Ryan? I was hearing it is going to hit around the SC-NC line.

[Park Kraken]

I believe Ryan lives in the Richmond VA area if I remember correctly. It shouldn't be a bad storm at all, Charley and Jeanne impacted us with Cat 1-2 winds back in '04 and we lost some roof tiles and had some downed brances, and lost power for about 4-6 hours at the most, nothing too major.

I'm more worried about the potential impact of Hanna on the New England states. By that time the storm's forward speed will be around 30-40 mph, so the right side of the storm will have that strength added onto it's normal strength, so it could have Cat 2 strength winds impacting the Mass/Conneticut/RI/Long Island areas depending on the storm's track.

[Ryan Pode]

I go to school in Newport News, closer to Norfolk than Richmond. Right on the peninsula though. While I could seek refuge near DC, with my parents. I think I'm going to stay at a friends house, who lives in a townhouse complex that is all college kids. So... hurricane party. :cool

[Morgan Evanar]

I guess I'll know Sunday about Ike. I seriously don't want to deal with anything more than a 2, and I'm more prepared than 95% of South Floridians.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

I guess I'll know Sunday about Ike. I seriously don't want to deal with anything more than a 2, and I'm more prepared than 95% of South Floridians.

Latest track is distinctly south so looks like you'll be okay.

But it gets into the Gulf without land interaction and that I think is really bad?

[Daiquiri]

For all of you in that area and surrounding regions, be safe!!

[Yog]

Latest track is distinctly south so looks like you'll be okay.

But it gets into the Gulf without land interaction and that I think is really bad?

It would definitely be bad if it gets into the hot waters of the Gulf without land interaction. That is how hurricanes gain strength. It is too early to say the coast is clear for Morgan though.

Here is a good site to track hurricanes with the latest forecast models:
http://www.stormpulse.com/hurricane-ike-2008

Click on the option "forecast models" on, and click more for some extra options.

[Ryan Pode]

So like, Hanna was supposed to hit us at like 3. And it started raining around then. But it stopped raining around 5 and hasn't rained since... but we've just been drinking. Nonstop. Huge block party goin' on right now too. It's awesome.

[Yog]

Hurricane Ike seen from space, heading toward Houston Texas right now:
http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/2166/orkan51221248348he6.jpg

Galveston earlier today..
http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/892/texas21221248271ed8.jpg

[Daiquiri]

Incredible pictures, Yog!

[CMJ]

Ike could be one of the worst storms to hit the USA in recent memory for a variety of reasons.

[Yog]

I heard a lot of numbers thrown around. Of the more terrifying ones, is some 90K people chose to stay in the Galveston Bay areas.. with some 23,000 of them staying on Galveston island (how do you escape from a surge on an island?). There is a full moon and a high tide, and I heard some say 30 feet surge is in the cards here. When you think about that for a second, it is not hard to imagine what could happen here. :(


Edit: Ok, from what I hear 20-30 feet surge ain't happen. There is a lot of flooding though.

[CMJ]

I haven't heard surge totals yet. Some areas east of Galveston might've gotten the worst surge according to what I've read so far this morning.

[Yog]

If you guys ever wondered about the force of hurricane wind gusts in the wide open and no shelter, take a look. This is "only" a category 2, remember:
http://www.mneh.org/pics/funny/hurricane-gust.jpg

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I've seen people do that with no wind at all. ;) You only need a lot of upper body strength to pose a picture like that.

[Liam Jinn]

Yeah, I'm calling shenanigans on that picture. Tis posed.

[Park Kraken]

Yeah if the winds were really that strong, the trees in the background would be bent backwards at a near 90 degree angle. Not to mention that the surf would be blowing so hard that you wouldn't be able to see about five feet in front of you. We had 85mph wind gusts during Hurricane Charley back in '04, and the orange grove trees behind our house only bent at about a 45 degree angle, not to mention that the only thing that was damaged was a few pieces of aluminum torn off of an old junk camper that we were going to restore.

[Loklorien s'Ilancy]

I've been reading the hurricane thread on SA, and it's kind of surreal to read the stuff people are saying about Houston and the damage done. I mean, I hated it completely when I was living down there, but still.

[Yog]

Yeah, it is probably set up, because the trees are not bending and the visibility is too good.

Hurricane winds can do that though.

[Daiquiri]

His arm is tucked up tight beneath him helping him lift himself up. Liam called shenanigans correctly. (Courntey, my daughter on the right always uses that word too!)

[Yog]

Some 100K houses may have been flooded.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/beach.jpg


Some houses were shattered into pieces.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/shattered-wood.jpg


There were also fires some places.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/fire.jpg


For many, the results were devestating.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/devestating.jpg


Signpost.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/signpost.jpg


This is a highway.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/highway.jpg


Many windows were shattered in Houston.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/skyscraper.jpg


No, you can't park there.
http://www.mneh.org/pics/hurricane/boat-parked.jpg

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Oh. My. LORD! We have hardly heard a thing about this one at all. Gustav was all over the news here, Ike hardly any and it looks 10* worse

And people decided to stay behind in the face of that? Surely the death toll must be high :(

On a lighter note -


You only need a lot of upper body strength to pose a picture like that.

Errr, no, it's actually a trick of balance and needs not much stretch at all to pull off - pure strength doesn't quite work :)

(Sez the guy who finally learned how to do it!)

[Yog]

Strangely, I have not heard much about death tolls or injuries yet, but there is an amazing amount of material damage.

It's going to be expensive cleaning up this mess.

[Morgan Evanar]

Building codes in Texas are a joke. I'm looking at some of the damage just caused by wind from pictures, and the quality of construction would make a South Floridian's jaw drop. It's all 2x4s. You can't do that in a place that gets hurricanes.

[CMJ]

Most of the damage I saw was surge related.

[Morgan Evanar]

Most of the damage I saw was surge related. I was looking at some pictures of wind storm damage further inland. I know what storm surge can do :(

[Yog]

This is a before and after photo of Crystal Beach, a town south of Galveston. I think it tells a lot about the power of these hurrricanes when it can basically wipe out a good chunk of the shoreline:
http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/7598/ikefrogetter21050891bhd7.jpg

.. and here is a before and after photo of Galveston (http://dl-client.getdropbox.com/u/26941/galvestonbeforeafter.gif)

According to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground, Gilchrist, a small town of 750 people was basically wiped off the map. Only 5 of approximately 1000 structures suvived:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1088&tstamp=200809

Boston Globe also has some amazing photos that made my jaw drop:
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2008/09/the_short_but_eventful_life_of.html