Conflict: Russia - Georgia. Escalating to full war.

[Yog]

This now deserves a serious topic. Georgia started some military operations directed at South Ossetia. South Ossetia broke away from Georgia in 1992 and has been independent since. There have been heavy military attacks from both Georgian and Russian side. This is scaling to full confrontation.

Timeline (Russian source, Babelfish)
http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-res&trurl=http%3A%2F%2Flenta.ru%2Farticles%2F2008%2F08 %2F08%2Fossetia%2F&lp=ru_en&btnTrUrl=Translate

CNN:
Georgia 'under attack' as Russian tanks roll in (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/08/georgia.ossetia/index.html)

Reuters:
Russia forces on edge of South Ossetia capital (http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL768040420080808)

[Aurelias Kazaar]

They just recalled their troops from Iraq to help protect their border. This is interesting in a bad way.

[Cat X]

The first thing I thought this was Russia trying something on. But to see GEORGIA was the initial agressor was mindblowing. Why the hell would you prod Russia like this?

The timing to be covered by Olympics games coverage says it was planned. But why? Why would you try military action against a country led by Putin? Someone in Georgia is insane.

[Ilias Nytrau]

I saw a blip about this while watching coverage of the opening ceremonies for the Olympics. Yes, I agree, someone's a little off their rocker.

[Aurelias Kazaar]

From what I saw the separatists in South Ossetia broke the ceasefire, then Georgians rolled in, then the Russians rolled in.

But who knows.

[Hu Xaio Jien]

The first thing I thought this was Russia trying something on. But to see GEORGIA was the initial agressor was mindblowing. Why the hell would you prod Russia like this?

The timing to be covered by Olympics games coverage says it was planned. But why? Why would you try military action against a country led by Putin? Someone in Georgia is insane.

(This is Charley, too lazy to log out)

It's not really that clear unfortunately. The Russians, Ossetians, and Georgians all have a hand in starting this flare-up, and we probably won't find the smoking gun for a while, if at all. I mean, you can't even absolve the Abkhazians in this one either, since there are also unverified reports of them joining the Ossetians in the fighting against Tbilisi. This has been simmering for nigh on forever though.

It gets even more interesting when you start talking about Caspian Oil and resource diversion, and how much US & Nato war money has been put into Georgia in recent years. Russia's been mega angry about satellite meddling for a very long time and here's a key reason coming to the front of things. Of course, that'll never get called out by name, but don't think it isn't at stake.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It looks a mess right now. I am not sure why Georgia would do that unless they thought Russia wouldn't get involved.

[Yog]

Georgia may have started this mess, but Russia more than made up for it by responding 10x that amount and more. Russia is like that bully kid in the schoolyard, harassing those much smaller than himself, and having fun doing so. Russia is completely ignoring international law and worsening relations to the west rapidly.

Like a friend of mine pointed out to me "With Russia reasserting its domination of Georgia, a western ally and soon to be member of NATO, and the US unable to do anything to stop the invasion, all the other countries in Georgia's shoes will be similarly scared (**insert expletive**), and cognizant that having good pro-western ties means nothing in defending them against Russia. If we are going to ease their fears, we need to admit Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, and maybe Armenia and Azerbaijan to the EU/NATO and station skeleton NATO forces on their soil. Not enough to be a sizable presence, just enough to show the flag and ward off Russian assault. Say 10,000 guys. Otherwise, every country that has a minute Russian minority and pro-western sentiment will be subject to attack. I am afraid that positioning NATO forces in a ring around Russia would mean starting Cold War II, but with Russia invading Georgia, our ally, I don't see any way around that. I think they've done that for us."

The only thing that could reverse this terrible situation is if Russia cease fire and withdraw their forces, but so far, there is no sign of that happening.

The Russian army has now moved beyond South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and is now stationed in Gori moving towards Tbilisi. The georgian army has evacuated all its troops to Tbilisi, and ordered them to make a last stand defense there. The defense of Tbilisi will obviously not be successful. Here is a warmap showing the situation:

http://img230.imageshack.us/img230/3797/wojnawgruzjiwaringeorgisc4.gif

[Yog]

Thankfully, this could end soon:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7555858.stm

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well that would be great news. I was worried Russia was going to try to Occupy Georgia or something.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Georgia may have started this mess, but Russia more than made up for it by responding 10x that amount and more. Russia is like that bully kid in the schoolyard, harassing those much smaller than himself, and having fun doing so. Russia is completely ignoring international law and worsening relations to the west rapidly.

Lets be quite blunt here - there is a hell of a lot more history here with Georgia and Ossetia than most know. Georgia when it broke away from the CCCR had a damn good go at genocide with the Ossetians. Ossetia dont see themselves as Georgians as a result in fact the only thing stopping them from being wiped out was Russians coming in and being a firm barrier against Georgian aggression. Why on earth would they want to be of a country that wanted to wipe them out????

Now yes it goes on from there with the Bush admin especially annoying the hell out of Russia by supporting pro-western leadership in Georgia and Russia then jealousy guarding it's regional interests, but frankly Russia can and should have reacted as they did when Georgia without being provoked shelled civilians and then killed Russian peacekeepers in Ossetia.

The Georgians are fracking mad if they thought that kind of assault wasn't going to be met with crushing retaliation. And as much as we in the West would like to think badly of Russia, dig deep and you will find Russia thinks it just has to smack down Georgia very, very hard for some quite understandable reasoning.

And is Russia really worsening relations? Do they care? And why should they care about International law when the USA didnt and started two wars that still go on? This is hypocrisy of the tallest order for Bush to sermon Russia on it's actions - especially when Georgia actually DID attack Russians with it's military. How then is Russia not justified in hitting damn hard back? And why shouldnt Russia make sure Georgia gets the message to not try this again?

The whole timing of the initial attack - covered by the Olympics shows this was madness of the Georgian leadership of the highest order - they PLANNED to attack civilians and Russian peacekeepers! Yeah good idea, lets do that and then hide it while the world is looking in the other direction. You know, I dont think someone thought this cunning plan through.

The civilians of Ossetia and Georgia are the ones who I feel sorry for. The military and politicians who somehow thought provoking Russia was a good idea on the other hand...

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think blame can go to both sides. Of course I don't trust old evil Putin, that man is just a scum bag.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

I think blame can go to both sides. Of course I don't trust old evil Putin, that man is just a scum bag.

You know, just because Putin feels like he has been backstabbed by the USA after being the first to offer help after 11/9 and then had another bunch of scumbags in Washington do their all to reduce Soviet influence and prestige, doesn't mean he's this evil Palatine pulling the strings. In fact, it it very much the reality Putin had no idea Georgia was about to do something this reckless

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373302


Moscow was disconcertingly taken by surprise with the sharp escalation of hostilities in South Ossetia last Friday. The most apparent part of the problem was the lack of leadership, as President Dmitry Medvedev departed to a Volga resort and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin went to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. The greater problem was the serious military and political miscalculations that had resulted in the apparently chaotic emergency decision-making (Kommersant, August 9; Ezhednevny zhurnal, August 8). It is hard to blame the military for missing the Georgian preparations for the large-scale offensive, since the command of the Armed Forces had been thoroughly reshuffled: The Chief of the General Staff was replaced in early June, his first deputy (the head of the Main Operational Department) was fired in early July and not replaced, and the commander of the Ground Forces was replaced in the first days of August (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 5).

The main blunder, however, was political, as the Kremlin seriously overestimated its ability to dominate the situation in the conflict zone. The large-scale military exercises conducted across the North Caucasus in July were supposed to demonstrate Russia’s superiority in projecting power (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 18). In parallel, the withdrawal of the railway troops from Abkhazia in early August symbolized Moscow’s flexibility and responsiveness to the peace proposals advanced by Germany (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 8). Putin was confident that his performance at the NATO Bucharest summit had effectively blocked Georgia’s Atlantic aspirations; several stern "warnings" should have ensured that Georgia would not dare make any pro-active move. Surprise was so complete that Putin, according to those who saw him in Beijing, was pale with barely controlled rage, which he tried to convey to U.S. President George Bush and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev (Moscow echo, August 8).


Russia didnt plot for this to happen, they weren't ready, they responded with a great deal of outrage and firepower.

For some reason, Georgia thought they could start a hot war and the West come rushing in. And now look what they have done - they handed Putin and co a priceless opportunity to put Russia back on the stage as a real world power, made sure any government of the former CCCR will have no thought of cozying up to Washington, which is somethign Putin and co wanted desperatly. Russia may not have been ready or expecting this, but they have grabbed the opportunity and it's proven to be a huge win for Putin.

Maybe someone should have been holding the Georgian President's leash a bit better, this wouldnt have happened. I still dont understand why Georgia thought they could do this and not get what we have today. Altho the other interesting fact is Georgia has been an independant state for 27 years since 1907 (I think that's the correct date) and they have started 5 wars. Maybe they learn something this time.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think blame can go to both sides. Of course I don't trust old evil Putin, that man is just a scum bag.

You know, just because Putin feels like he has been backstabbed by the USA after being the first to offer help after 11/9 and then had another bunch of scumbags in Washington do their all to reduce Soviet influence and prestige, doesn't mean he's this evil Palatine pulling the strings. In fact, it it very much the reality Putin had no idea Georgia was about to do something this reckless

http://www.jamestown.org/edm/article.php?article_id=2373302


Moscow was disconcertingly taken by surprise with the sharp escalation of hostilities in South Ossetia last Friday. The most apparent part of the problem was the lack of leadership, as President Dmitry Medvedev departed to a Volga resort and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin went to Beijing to attend the opening ceremony of the Olympic Games. The greater problem was the serious military and political miscalculations that had resulted in the apparently chaotic emergency decision-making (Kommersant, August 9; Ezhednevny zhurnal, August 8). It is hard to blame the military for missing the Georgian preparations for the large-scale offensive, since the command of the Armed Forces had been thoroughly reshuffled: The Chief of the General Staff was replaced in early June, his first deputy (the head of the Main Operational Department) was fired in early July and not replaced, and the commander of the Ground Forces was replaced in the first days of August (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 5).

The main blunder, however, was political, as the Kremlin seriously overestimated its ability to dominate the situation in the conflict zone. The large-scale military exercises conducted across the North Caucasus in July were supposed to demonstrate Russia’s superiority in projecting power (Nezavisimaya gazeta, July 18). In parallel, the withdrawal of the railway troops from Abkhazia in early August symbolized Moscow’s flexibility and responsiveness to the peace proposals advanced by Germany (Nezavisimaya gazeta, August 8). Putin was confident that his performance at the NATO Bucharest summit had effectively blocked Georgia’s Atlantic aspirations; several stern "warnings" should have ensured that Georgia would not dare make any pro-active move. Surprise was so complete that Putin, according to those who saw him in Beijing, was pale with barely controlled rage, which he tried to convey to U.S. President George Bush and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev (Moscow echo, August 8).


Russia didnt plot for this to happen, they weren't ready, they responded with a great deal of outrage and firepower.

For some reason, Georgia thought they could start a hot war and the West come rushing in. And now look what they have done - they handed Putin and co a priceless opportunity to put Russia back on the stage as a real world power, made sure any government of the former CCCR will have no thought of cozying up to Washington, which is somethign Putin and co wanted desperatly. Russia may not have been ready or expecting this, but they have grabbed the opportunity and it's proven to be a huge win for Putin.

Maybe someone should have been holding the Georgian President's leash a bit better, this wouldnt have happened. I still dont understand why Georgia thought they could do this and not get what we have today. Altho the other interesting fact is Georgia has been an independant state for 27 years since 1907 (I think that's the correct date) and they have started 5 wars. Maybe they learn something this time.

I don't trust Putin because he was the former head of the KBG. That be like the head of the SS leading Germany after WW 2. Putin is just as a scumbag as Bush is so I wouldn't take up for that evil man. He pretty much destroyed democracy in Russia during his tenure and he found a loop hole to stay in power. pushing that puppet President around. Finally, CNN is saying that Russia might be breaking the cease fire. They are moving tanks around the capital of Georgia.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/13/georgia.russia.war/index.html

[Park Kraken]

I have a pretty idea of how this whole mess started, and even though Russia is the aggressor overall, the Georgians deserve a large part of the blame for falling straight into the Russian trap.

What the overall goal of the Russians is at this time, whether it be to occupy Georgia or is just flexing it's military muscle and providing training for it's ground army and local navy forces, is unclear at the present time to me, but how it started is pretty clear.

Whether it was Spetznaz trainers or agents from SVR or GRU Intelligence services, someone went into Ossieta and provoked an uprising among the local populace. There is a 50/50 chance that assurances were made that Russia would come in and help if Georgia provoked a strong response, but the Georgian's reaction was the hoped for reaction by the agent provocateours.

The Ossetians rise up, and Georgian sends in it's military to crack down (which, since they were once a part of Russian, their military would use Russian style tactics, which in the history of Russia, would mainly consist of Ethnic Cleansing among the civilian populace, or something close to it) the resistance.

Enter Russia.

Now whether or not the politicans were told by SVR and GRU about their plans, and thus only acted suprised, or really were suprised by not being told, (I'm guessing the former), it is VERY CLEAR that the Russian Military was not caught off guard.

The speed, size, and coordination between Army, Air Force, and Navy could only have been brought off if this was planned in advance.

So there you have it. Russia laid a trap for Georgia, they fell into it, and now Russia has an alibi, or excuse, for laying into Georgia.

And this isn't the first time something like this has happened either concerning Russia and one of her breakaway provences. Our response will probably be like NATO's response back then - nothing but words while the Russians crush their little neighbors.

[Cat X]

:words:


So despite the facts that are quite clear - and the facts are that the Russians were caught by surprise and responded as such - you still come up with this total nonsense? The simple fact Georgia attacked on the same day as the Open ceremony should be enough to put paid to OMG PLANNED BY RUSSIA

Honestly, start getting newsfeeds from Europe and start getting informed.


I don't trust Putin because he was the former head of the KBG. That be like the head of the SS leading Germany after WW 2. Putin is just as a scumbag as Bush is so I wouldn't take up for that evil man. He pretty much destroyed democracy in Russia during his tenure and he found a loop hole to stay in power.

Please stop presuming that Putin has this whole thing on a string as part of some masterplan because he's supposed to be this Bond villian with a plots and schemes to take over the world - Bluntly, Georgia did something quite stupid and Russia have had the opportunity to grab an incredible opportunity that presented itself from nowhere.

Admittedly when I first heard of this, I thought that was the case, it was Russia beign a bully. But the more that you dig into it, the more it's not the case

PLus, it's not like the last Georgian election wasnt shamelessly rigged by a man that is basically a dictactor. Oh no, Georgia is a free and fair democrac.... wait no it isnt. It's completely true the last elections were badly rigged and the Georgian President is nothing more than a dictactor who thought he could go far beyond his mearge capacity.

[Park Kraken]

So despite the facts that are quite clear - and the facts are that the Russians were caught by surprise and responded as such - you still come up with this total nonsense? The simple fact Georgia attacked on the same day as the Open ceremony should be enough to put paid to OMG PLANNED BY RUSSIA

Honestly, start getting newsfeeds from Europe and start getting informed.

In times of war, I prefer to judge nations based on actions, and not on words. I take whatever each side says (Georgia or Russia) and compute how it will work to their advantage by saying it, rather than whether or not it is true (there is a 50% chance it is true or false, and 100% chance that it is exaggerated).

Just because you don't want to see eye to eye with me, because you don't like Georgia because it's an ally of the ever loathsome US goverment, is not an excuse to throw my very valid arguement out the window.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Just because you don't want to see eye to eye with me, because you don't like Georgia because it's an ally of the ever loathsome US goverment, is not an excuse to throw my very valid arguement out the window.

Your argument isnt valid until it has factual basis and evidence. And maybe you should re-read how exactly I presumed Russia started all of this FIRST before finding out the utterly stupidity of Georgia by I dunno..... being informed?

(Dont like Georgia should read don't like megomaniac puppet dictator)

So as much as I quite rightly loathe the idiots who run the USA at present due to the immense international damage they have done, I see that the statement I have made seem to be backed by facts and I am as per usual just telling it appears to me, while refuting false information. I have done this in every political thread and almost always back myself with facts, much to the disgust of people who say tried to support Iraq, or Swift Boat Veterans or any number of other highly suspect items.

And you know, if that hurts people's feeling that I will challenge what they say ..... I'll still sleep pretty well at night.

So far the real facts point to a mad idiot in Georgia who seems intent on not only provoking Russia but it appears to be trying to draw other countries in, if his latest statements are to be believed.

And people think Putin is crazy? Not as mad as the idiot ruling Georgia.

[Daiquiri]

While I do feel VERY sorry for the innocent citizens of all areas involved, I think I'll be rather pleased if Russia becomes a power once more; theyll be the first China goes after (eventually) and while the Reds are trying to hold them off, the rest of the world can try to plan how to stop them.

[Park Kraken]

While I do feel VERY sorry for the innocent citizens of all areas involved, I think I'll be rather pleased if Russia becomes a power once more; theyll be the first China goes after (eventually) and while the Reds are trying to hold them off, the rest of the world can try to plan how to stop them.

I was just thinking earlier today that if China and Taiwan ever became one again, the very next thing China would need is a lot of space and natural resources, therefore it would be likely that they would invade Siberia.

And if that were to happen, it is very likely that both countries would annihilate each other.

[Yog]

And people think Putin is crazy? Not as mad as the idiot ruling Georgia.
If Putin is 30% as crazy, we are in trouble. Georgia is just a blip on the radar, while Russia is a military superpower.

Was Georgia in the wrong starting this mess? Yes.

Is the Georgian president an idiot who made a bonheaded decision? Certainly appears so.

Was Russia in the right to give a military response to their peacekeeping forces being bombed, kicking Georgian forces out of South Ossetia? Of course.

Does this justify the bombings and lootings of Gori among other places, purposely attacking civilian targets, invading Georgian territory, and blatantly disregard treaties to withdraw troops, sending tanks and armored vehicles toward Tblisi, and acting like the bully we've seen in Chechnya. Absolutely not.

If anything, I think we should be thankful the western leaders were so quick to condemn Russia's invasion of Georgia, because if not, Georgia might have been occupied today. And then we would be dealing with a far worse problem in Caucasus than we have now.

[Two Dollar Jim]

Yeah, I don't think anybody can really blame Russia's military response insofar as matters pertaining to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. As you said, it starts to get a bit more interesting once the forces move into undisputed Georgia ;)

So, what's the point of action in Georgia then? For all the moustache-twirling villain portrayals that western leaders might want to throw on Putin, it's not a play at annexation. That puts a lot of economic cooperative measures at risk with needless belligerence. Russia wants to ensure their position in the G8, and they also can't swing their economic cudgel at major EU nations the way that they might to minor players like the Ukraine, since the big dogs are intertwined with Russia's own economic interest. Putin is a zero sum sort of guy though, so he's the sort that believes that his gain must come at another's loss. I think its pretty obvious that the Russians seek regime change in Georgia, and hope they can get enough nationalists angry to compel Saakashvili's ouster. The assessment is pretty much correct in that as long as Russia continues on that path, there's not really anything the west will do about it. It's hard to argue against that kind of regime change when the west has been generally permissive of actions in Iraq and, more pertinently for Russia, Kosovo.

[Telan Desaria]

I have followed the story closely. Sadly, other people are getting involved. America, France, etc. Since when did the actions of one country become world business?

Let me take you back to 1914 - the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand allowed the Austro-Hungarian Empire to declare war on Serbia. This in and of itself was a small matter, for Serbia's demise was a sure thing. However, Russia then got involved via its alliance, along with Germany, Italy, Britian, and Franc, and the other smaller nations that poked their heads in. A system of continuous alliances is a dangerous thing as we have historical proof. In the action here in Georgia I see the world repeating the mistakes it already made.

Secondly - what business is it of the US or even the world what happens between Georgia and Russia. It is a matter that is dire to both nations without doubt but since when did the self-aanointed guardians of the world become involved? This is purely internal matter. For the US and France to DEMAND a halt to military action is absurd. Imagine the indignation if Burgandy or California broke away from their parent countries and became Russian-backed 'independent states.' The outcry would be thunderous and the mantra would sound over Reuters and CNN that it was a 'purely internal matter, no other country's business.'

How ironic.

I'm afraid I side with the Russians - AND the Georgians. If they wish to war on one another, then let them. War is a part of life.

Now, militarily speaking - Georgia is stupid. Russia has three thousand tanks just lying around and a military that has been getting slowly better since the bottom dropped out of the Soviet Empire. To tempt them is a mistake and Georgia is paying the price. They should not stop short of the total and complete annexation of this area - which was theirs initially, anyway.