Dark Knight Box office

[Jedi Master Carr]

I really think this deserves its own thread considering how big this movie has become. It first broke Spidey's OD, OW record, and took Sith's midnights. It was also underestimated by 3 million. Now it has made 24.5 on non holiday Monday.
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-07-20&p=.htm

That is unbelievable, that is the highest non-holiday ever. Beat Dead Man's Chest by 6 million. There is no way this doesn't do 400 now. So how high can this go? It should be able to pass The Phantom Menance for #5 and maybe ET at 4. Can it challenge Shrek 2 at 446? Or Star Wars at 461?

[CMJ]

Beating A New Hiope is definitely in play.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I think it is. Really this is an unbelievable story, probably the biggest Box office story since at least Shrek 2.

[Rutabaga]

$24 million yesterday? Holy crap.

After the final numbers for the weekend, I figured that $400 million is not out of the question, not out of the question at all. How high in the end, though, I don't know.

[Yog]

Comparing total gross to ANH is a bit silly though, since adjusted for inflation, it beats the crap out just about any movie ever made, including Titanic, + the enormous amount of money it made on merchandise, more sequels, DVD's etc. ANH is simply unparalleled in box office.

I think that monday number sealed the deal for 400M. I also think a fastest to 200M record is guaranteed, it could make it in 5-6 days (DMC did it in 8!). I won't do any further predictions before I see tuesday number though.

[CMJ]

Just comparing the initial runs, ANH, GWTW, and Titanic are all very, very close. ANH and especially GWTW have been re-released several times.

[Yog]

I am still recovering from the shock of that monday number. That totally caught me by surprise. I have been looking over the numbers and calculated some projected paths, and I think the fastest to 300M (16 days by DMC) is going to be shattered. Which brings me to my next point; I think we may actually have a 500M movie here. It's simply making money so fast, it won't even need that amazing legs. This post explained it pretty well:


I'm trying to see how much TDK could earn from its second weekend on. Considering The Bourne Supremacy, which was released in late July, had a 3.36 overall multiplier with 54%, 40.5%, 40.2% being its drops for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th weekends, TDK shouldn't have trouble to have a better multiplier if we treat this upcoming week as the starting point since the respective weekends for it will be its 3rd, 4th, and 5th. So,

if TDK gets $75m, the additional total after the first week should be at least 255m; $80m would translate to $272m; $85m, $289m. Then when we add the first week total of around $240m back in, it would be $495m, $512m, and $529m. And that's basically the minimum, so I'd say the chance of it getting $500m is already at 80% after Monday's number.

Now, if the tuesday number blows me away the same way monday did, I might even bring up the 'T-Word'... :eek



Just comparing the initial runs, ANH, GWTW, and Titanic are all very, very close. ANH and especially GWTW have been re-released several times.
Yeah, I know. All I am saying is, adjusted for inflation ANH made 1.39 BILLION dollars domestically. Even if you took out the 82 and 97 reruns out of the equation, and just counted the 307M in the initial 1977 theater run, you would still end up with some 900M adjusted. That is still better than.... *T-Word*. Those kind of numbers are just not viable in todays market any more.

The best comparison of the newer releases, I think, is the Shrek 2 release in 2004 at 441M. I think it will beat the socks out of that.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I am shocked too. This will definitely beat Shrek 2. It has a good chance at being the second movie over 500 million. Something else to consider at the rate it is making money it could pass the adjusted for inflation number for the first Batman movie. I think that adjusts to 450. The question is why? The movie is amazing and I think the reviews and WOM are helping a lot. I can't see this being a big hit with families so it must be teen-agers and young adults that are driving this movie. It does make sense, since that was one of the big factors for Titanic since that had no family audience either.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It made 20.855 on Tuesday based on Media by the Numbers. That is great and not counting Transformers opening, it beats the next Tuesday by 5 million. Also it has over 200 million in 5 days.

[Yog]

I made 20.855 on Tuesday based on Media by the Numbers. That is great and not counting Transformers opening, it beats the next Tuesday by 5 million. Also it has over 200 million in 5 days.

HOLY COW!

*faints*

(I need some time to digest this)

[CMJ]

So....300M by Sunday....

[Yog]

So....300M by Sunday....

Yeah... :eek

[Jedi Master Carr]

I would think so, you are looking at least 70 million for the weekend, but it could break 75 or 80.

[Cat X]

So....300M by Sunday....

That's just defies logic, yet I cant see how it cant be done. Bloody hell......


The question is why?

I think we can all agree that why a movie gets an audience that just keeps coming back for repeat viewings (and that's what will drive this thing beyond 400m) could be realised after the fact but you can never predict it. Titanic for instance really never looked liek it would be what it turned out to be. Others look to be huge but fizzle quickly. Some come from nowhere and just keep going.

We're talking about humans here and humans just aren't predictable. Sure TDK was going to be big but THIS big? And yes it's a movie that actually deserves the assive success but being as good as it is is absolutly NO preresquisite to a huge box office take.

One thing I will say is that TDK is a pretty good date movie.

[Morgan Evanar]

The theater I went to was packed. At 6:30 PM on a Monday!

[Peter McCoy]

Droo and I are off to see it tonight and I can pretty much guarantee I'll be going a few more times - at the very least a second time to see it with my girlfriend. I wonder how much of an effect the repeat viewings actually have on the overall box office taking. It would be interesting if those figures were available. Maybe they should ask the question when you pay for the ticket - "Is this your first viewing?". lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

So how big will it be overseas? The Batman movies traditionally haven't done well overseas. I was thinking like 250-300 million a month ago, now it is more likely 350-400. I have my doubts it can go much farther than that because in the markets it opened in Latin America it has done good but not great and I think it will do horrible in Asia because of the Olympics. That is the one place the box office will be hurting this August. So right now I think it can do 850-900 WW which would be amazing.

[Crusader]

I think the WOM here in Europe is outstanding so far. The big boxoffice succes in the US even made it into the prime time news in Germany.
I think nearly everyone I know wants to watch this movie at the movies in the first week. Even some girls that do not normaly want to watch comic flicks want to see it because it is Ledger's last movie.
I so hope for this guy that he wins the oscar for the Joker so that he won't be always remembered as the gay cowboy.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Europe will help it get over the 400 mark. I think you won't see numbers much higher than that because of Asia and Latin America. Of course super hero movies don't do that well in Asia anyway.

[CMJ]

I so hope for this guy that he wins the oscar for the Joker so that he won't be always remembered as the gay cowboy.

WTF?! He was great in BBM. Nothing to be ashamed of to be remembered for that film.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I would hope he isn't just remembered for one movie, but for his work overall.

[CMJ]

When E.T.: The Extra-terrestrial became to BO champ in 1982 it basically put the end gross so far out of whack that nothing came close for years. I don't think another film grossed 300M until Jurassic Park.

So 11 years.

Fast forward to Dark Knight and Titanic. It's been now...11 years since Titanic was released....and we'll prolly have our first film over 500M since.

So...we're 4 years from something taking down the boat.

:lol

[Crusader]

I so hope for this guy that he wins the oscar for the Joker so that he won't be always remembered as the gay cowboy.

WTF?! He was great in BBM. Nothing to be ashamed of to be remembered for that film.

Sure he was great in BBM but every actor has got a role in which he will be remembered and currently BBM is the one and if you have to sum up his role in 2 words for a news report he is called the "gay cowboy". So every time I hear news reports like this I suddenly feel the urge to cry:"Heath Ledger rocked in a Knight's Tale!!!"

[CMJ]

I honestly don't care? As fantastic as he was as the Joker(and it's hard to heap enough praise on him for that) - Ennis Del Mar was his best character.

What you can really see though is his range in comparing those 2 performances. The guy was on his way to becoming one of the all-time screen presences, truly.

[Rutabaga]

Plus in Entertainment Weekly's cover story a couple of weeks ago, Christopher Nolan said that it was Heath Ledger's work in BBM that made him want him to play the Joker. As he put it, Heath wasn't just on the short list, he was the short list. So if it weren't for BBM, we might not have gotten this fabulous Joker.

[Droo]

All screenings today and yesterday were sold out, fortunately our tickets were bought days in advance but based simply on the mesmerizing quality of this film and after overhearing the reaction of crowds on their way out, I think it's safe to say a large portion of cinema-goers will check this one out more than once. It deserves every penny it makes.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think the U.K will be one of its bigger markets overseas. It did great in Australia and I think that was helped out because Ledger was from there. I could see 75-80 million dollars from the U.K. I am still thinking 450-500 in the U.S and 350-400 overseas. It has a very good chance at 900 million. Should be #1 WW for the summer.

[Rutabaga]

Wow...another $75 million this weekend, for a cumulative total of over $310 million. Fastest in history, 10 days. $500 million minimum seems assured now. All that's left is whether Titanic will finally fall.

[CMJ]

I don't think it'll get that close to 600M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think it'll get that close to 600M.

I agree I think it will just get past 500. Maybe like 510.

[jjwr]

Any updated predictions on where it could finish now that we have more data?

[Yog]

Any updated predictions on where it could finish now that we have more data?

I'd say about 520-530M.

[Rutabaga]

I read in an article about this last weekend's BO results that studio execs are expecting a final total of around $530 million. Not too shabby. :thumbup

[Jedi Master Carr]

Any updated predictions on where it could finish now that we have more data?

I'd say about 520-530M.

I agree with that. Never thought that was possible. I was think 340 at the most.

[Yog]

I agree with that. Never thought that was possible. I was think 340 at the most.
Aye, it shocked me too. Although, I had a feeling something big was going to happen some days before the theatrical release. Titanic is unsinkable for now. Still one heck of a run. It will be the second biggest unadjusted domestic gross of all time.

[Yog]

Dark Knight finally hit 500M in unadjusted domestic gross. The only other movie than Titanic to reach that milestone. Congrats to the man in a dark cape, and also to the late Heath Ledger for an incredible performance which mesemerized the world. The only question now is what oscar nominations it gets, and how it will affect the end of the box office run.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will get several Oscars nominations. I don't think a Best picture nod is out of the question.