Summer box office contest week 12 TDK points doubled Fri3amPST deadline for TDK

[Jedi Master Carr]

This should be the biggest weekend of the year. For one thing, what will probably be the #1 movie of the year, The Dark Knight opens on Friday. The movie has been selling out tickets at record numbers so it should be interesting to see what it will do. Here are this past weekend's numbers
1. Hellboy II: The Golden Army $34,539,115 0 3204 $10,780 $34,539,115 1
2. Hancock $32,080,560 -49 3965 $8,091 $164,115,004 8
3. Journey To The Center Of The Earth $21,018,141 0 2811 $7,477 $21,018,141 1
4. WALL-E $18,793,588 -42 3849 $4,883 $163,055,900 15
5. Wanted $11,996,175 -40 3157 $3,800 $112,455,060 15

Three new openers
The Dark Knight
Mamma Mia
Space Chimps (this should rival Meet Dave)

Who ever gets the Dark Knight right the points for it will be doubled.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Are we counting midnight showings?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yes unless there are previews before Midnight but so far they haven't started doing that.

[Liam Jinn]

So the picks are due by normal Friday time?

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I would think it should be Thursday for Dark Knight picks.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well with Potter last year we had them in at Wed night (it came out on wed) and it wasn't an issue and that movie had a the second largest midnight numbers ever. But we will see what ever one else thinks.

[Liam Jinn]

Thursday for Batman pick only, right? I'm cool with that, but you'd better edit the title of the thread so people will know that. Sure, people could actually read this thread, but what if?! WHAT IF?!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Tell you for a compromise, there won't be any midnight numbers in until late friday afternoon. So what about a 3am PST time deadline for it?

[Jedi Master Carr]

My picks
1 The Dark Knight 131.44
2 Mamma Mia 34.31
3 Hancock 12.11
4 HellBoy 2 11.57
5 Journey to the Center of the Earth 10.05

[Lilaena De'Ville]

1. The Dark Knight - $139.88
2. Mamma Mia - $35.58
3. Hellboy 2 - $16.84
4. Hancock - $15.89
4. Journey to the Center of the Earth - $13.67

:)

[CMJ]

1. The Dark Knight - 128.11M
2. Mamma Mia - 29.09M
3. Hancock - 14.51M
4. Hellboy 2 - 12.59M
5. Journey to the Center of the Earth - 11.48M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Saturday morning is going to be fun seeing TDK's first day.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You know what since I am not sure how many of you will get your picks in on time, if anybody is late like Friday morning or something I am not going to worry about it. I won't let anybody get away with Batman picks tomorrow afternoon or night though.

[Yog]

1. The Dark Knight - 142.23M
2. Mamma Mia - 28.33M
3. Hancock - 14.88M
4. Hellboy 2 - 14.37M
5. Wall-E - 10.55M

[Liam Jinn]

1. The Dark Knight - $105.97
2. Mamma Mia - $25.42
3. Hellboy 2 - $14.02
4. Hancock - $12.33
4. Journey to the Center of the Earth - $9.73

[Crusader]

1. The Dark Knight - 135.23M
2. Mamma Mia - 30.11M
3. Hellboy 2 - 13.50M
4. Hancock - 12.54M
5. Wall-E - 10.32M

[Ryan Pode]

1. The Dark Knight - 121.54M
2. Mamma Mia - 25.34M
3. Hellboy 2 - 15.53M
4. Hancock - 11.77M
5. Wall-E - 9.56M

[Lilaena De'Ville]

There were like 5 midnight shows for TDK at the theatre we went to and they were all sold out. And another theatre that we originally wanted to see it at was all sold out before we could get any tickets. So.

[Yog]

Are you telling me, you did not even get any tickets?

[Jedi Master Carr]

There were like 5 midnight shows for TDK at the theatre we went to and they were all sold out. And another theatre that we originally wanted to see it at was all sold out before we could get any tickets. So.

Wow I wish I warned you about that. I got my a few days early because I had a feeling this would happen.

[Crusader]

This smells like a real Blockbuster...well actually the word blockbuster is used way to frequently maybe we should call it a blocksmasher or something like that. I haven't heard about sold out showings everywhere since the Return of the King.

[Jedi Master Carr]

There is talk it made at least 17 million at midnight but it could be higher. I didn't think it would happen until the last Harry Potter movie but ROTS's midnight record is probably going down. It looks like I should have took that bet with you Yog.

[Yog]

This smells like a real Blockbuster...well actually the word blockbuster is used way to frequently maybe we should call it a blocksmasher or something like that. I haven't heard about sold out showings everywhere since the Return of the King.

Those are midnight shows, which tend to be crazy for movies with anticipation in the stratosphere. It was the same thing with SW3, POTC3, Spiderman 3 etc. I gotta hand it to Warner though for succeeding in hyping this movie up. And the possible Oscar performance and stellar reviews helps too. Word of mouth is amazing.


There is talk it made at least 17 million at midnight but it could be higher. I didn't think it would happen until the last Harry Potter movie but ROTS's midnight record is probably going down. It looks like I should have took that bet with you Yog.

What we have is a classic example of one movie not living up to expectations, and another movie exceeding the expectations. I think Indy / Spiderman are stronger franchises, capable of pulling 400M when the stars are aligned right, and this franchise is not quite in that league yet. The Dark Knight may have changed that though, and while I don't think it will make 400M, a #1 of the year seems more and more probable as the reports come in.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This smells like a real Blockbuster...well actually the word blockbuster is used way to frequently maybe we should call it a blocksmasher or something like that. I haven't heard about sold out showings everywhere since the Return of the King.

Those are midnight shows, which tend to be crazy for movies with anticipation in the stratosphere. It was the same thing with SW3, POTC3, Spiderman 3 etc. I gotta hand it to Warner though for succeeding in hyping this movie up. And the possible Oscar performance and stellar reviews helps too. Word of mouth is amazing.


There is talk it made at least 17 million at midnight but it could be higher. I didn't think it would happen until the last Harry Potter movie but ROTS's midnight record is probably going down. It looks like I should have took that bet with you Yog.

What we have is a classic example of one movie not living up to expectations, and another movie exceeding the expectations. I think Indy / Spiderman are stronger franchises, capable of pulling 400M when the stars are aligned right, and this franchise is not quite in that league yet. The Dark Knight may have changed that though, and while I don't think it will make 400M, a #1 of the year seems more and more probable as the reports come in.

I think you are right and that is why I chickened out because I thought Indy would live up to the hype. I don't think TDK could make 400 because it won't bring in that many families. I think it can do 330-370 though and should be #1 movie of the year.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Are you telling me, you did not even get any tickets?
No we got tickets, but at our second choice theatre. We bought them a few days early. :p

[Yog]

No we got tickets, but at our second choice theatre. We bought them a few days early. :p
Good for you! :)


Update on midnight screenings!


NEW YORK - A tracking firm says “The Dark Knight” has set a box office record for a midnight debut.

Media By Numbers says the new Batman movie from Warner Bros. brought in $18.5 million Friday from its midnight screening in 3,040 theaters.

That bested the 2005 performance of “Star Wars Episode III: The Revenge of the Sith,” which took in $16.9 million at its debut.

“The Dark Knight” figure did not include any of its 3 a.m. or 6 a.m. showings.

The film was selling an average of about 10 tickets per second on online movie-ticket site Fandango.com as fans went to see Heath Ledger and connect with one of the nation’s most mystical superhero franchises.

“I’ve been watching these since I was a kid,” said Carlos Diaz, 20, a student at New York University, who went to see the movie Friday morning.

He had sprayed his hair bright green in a tribute to Batman nemesis the Joker, Ledger’s final full movie role.

“I can’t wait to see what Ledger does with the Joker,” Diaz said. “I want to see if it matches the hype.”

Katie Burns, 23, of Hillsdale, N.J., who went to a 12:01 a.m. screening, said the film lived up to the hype.

“I thought it was amazing, probably one of the best movies I have seen in a long time,” she said. “Heath Ledger’s performance was just really, really great. The whole time you know it’s Heath Ledger, but at the same time you have to remind yourself that it’s him. He is so convincing as the Joker.”

The movie was Fandango’s second best-selling movie in pre-sales — “Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith” was No. 1 — and made up 94 percent of this week’s Fandango ticket sales.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25738782/

With 3 am / 6 am screenings, 20M might be possible... :eek

Edit: Never mind, those 3 / 6 am screenings are in 100 theaters only. Still, this is an impressive record. I think the prospect of a 60M+ opening day looks pretty good.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah I doubt a million was made in those theaters. Maybe the total could be 19 million after you add those in. So high of an opening day are we looking at?

[Yog]

Yeah I doubt a million was made in those theaters. Maybe the total could be 19 million after you add those in. So high of an opening day are we looking at?

Well... to answer that, I took a look at the online ticket sales, to see if the sell out trend continues. Here is what I found at a couple random theaters (available tickets in bold)

AMC Empire 25 (http://www.movietickets.com/house_detail.asp?house_id=7114&house_pos=0&movie_id=0&ShowDate=0)
BUY TICKETS - 10:00am, 10:30am, 11:00am, 11:30am, 12:45pm, 1:30pm, 2:00pm, 2:30pm, 3:00pm, 4:15pm, 5:00pm, 5:30pm, 6:00pm, 6:30pm, 7:45pm, 8:30pm, 9:00pm, 9:30pm, 10:00pm, 11:15pm, Midnight, 12:30am, 1:00am, 1:30am, 1:30am, 1:30am

AMC Hoffman Center 22 (http://www.movietickets.com/house_detail.asp?SearchZip=22306&house_id=7845&house_pos=0&movie_id=0&ShowDate=0)
BUY TICKETS - 10:00am, 10:30am, 11:00am, 11:30am, Noon, 12:30pm, 1:20pm, 2:00pm, 2:30pm, 3:00pm, 3:30pm, 4:10pm, 4:50pm, 5:30pm, 6:05pm, 6:35pm, 7:05pm, 7:40pm, 8:20pm, 9:00pm, 9:30pm, 10:00pm, 10:30pm, 11:10pm, 11:50pm, 12:30am

I am assuming times are in EST. It is basically sold out across the board, which would suggest a 40M+ excluding mignight easily. I think with the phenomenal pressure to see it opening day, it could be higher though. I think the $59.8M set by spiderman 3 is almost certain to fall. A 70M+ opening day is not out of the question, IMO.

Edit: More realistically, I think about 60-65 is what it will do.

[Yog]

Word now is, TDK may be heading for a 66M opening day. Using a conservative 2.4 internal multiplier, that would translate into a 158M opening weekend. It's shattering Spidey 3's opening day record (59M), and very likely the weekend record as well (151M). Hellboy 2 is tanking horribly in its second weekend, and might not make top 5 now. Mamma Mia is heading for an opening close to 30M. Keep in mind, these are projections, not estimates.

[Liam Jinn]

I know a lot of people want to see the new Batman, but I can't get why 120M+ is a reasonable guesstimate, it doesn't make sense to me. I want to see this movie, but I can wait and see it later. Hell, I might even wait for the DVD/On Demand thing. Am I really alone on this?

[Jaime Tomahawk]

I know a lot of people want to see the new Batman, but I can't get why 120M+ is a reasonable guesstimate, it doesn't make sense to me. I want to see this movie, but I can wait and see it later. Hell, I might even wait for the DVD/On Demand thing. Am I really alone on this?


Yes

Because unlike a lot of other crap, This Is WORTH Seeing first day.

[Yog]

I know a lot of people want to see the new Batman, but I can't get why 120M+ is a reasonable guesstimate, it doesn't make sense to me. I want to see this movie, but I can wait and see it later. Hell, I might even wait for the DVD/On Demand thing. Am I really alone on this?

I was not so hot on TDK either for a long time, but I gradually changed my mind on it when I heard about all the presales, and how highly rated it was. I thought my 142M prediction was high, but not unrealistic considering the enormous amount of buzz and hype.

More recently, there were a couple of things suggesting it could go higher. It not only broke pre sales records, it broke the midnight previews record by a comfortable margin. Then there were all the theater sellouts on friday. And now, depending on who you ask, it will be 64-67M opening day (which is also a record!)
Nikki Finke's Deadline Hollywood (http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/dark-knight-humongous-60m-friday/)
Fantasy Moguls (http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2008/07/dark-knight-lik.html)
Yahoo reviews tracking (http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=115&start=15000)

Now if we assume 60M+ opening day is correct (and all signs point to that), it would need to drop horrribly on saturday and sunday to only make 120M+. You're now talking hilariously frontloaded like Sex and the City (http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2008/SEXCT.php) (2.12 multiplier). That is not normal for a major action blockbuster like this, especially not when it got such great word of mouth.

[Yog]

BOM friday numbers (estimates)

1 - The Dark Knight WB $66,400,000 - - 4,366 $15,208 $66,400,000 1
2 - Mamma Mia! Uni. $9,627,000 - - 2,976 $3,235 $9,627,000 1
3 1 Hancock Sony $4,550,000 +57% -56% 3,776 $1,205 $182,054,000 17
4 2 Journey to the Center of the Earth NL $3,590,000 +56% -47% 2,830 $1,269 $34,754,000 8
5 3 Hellboy II: The Golden Army Uni. $3,164,000 +38% -77% 3,212 $985 $49,573,000 8
6 4 Wall-E BV $3,000,000 +36% -47% 3,310 $906 $175,662,000 22
7 - Space Chimps Fox $2,450,000 - - 2,511 $976 $2,450,000 1
8 5 Wanted Uni. $1,569,000 +27% -58% 2,433 $645 $119,819,000 22
9 6 Get Smart WB $1,230,000 +35% -45% 2,135 $576 $116,714,000 29
10 8 Meet Dave Fox $555,000 +3% -68% 3,011 $184 $8,294,000 8
11 7 Kung Fu Panda P/DW $515,000 -16% -59% 1,505 $342 $205,271,000 43
12 10 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $275,000 -3% -55% 757 $363 $311,889,000 58
13 9 Kit Kittredge: An American Girl PicH $265,000 -41% -65% 769 $345 $13,083,000 29
14 12 Sex and the City NL $220,000 -15% -56% 515 $427 $149,369,000 50
15 11 The Incredible Hulk Uni. $187,000 -31% -73% 656 $285 $131,328,000 36
16 13 Iron Man Par. $132,000 +10% -51% 375 $352 $314,057,000 78

I think TDK will make about 155-160M over the weekend, Mamma Mia should do about 25-28 (excellent counter programming!), and Hellboy is likely to lose vs Wall-E over the 5th spot. Hancock is holding reasonably well, as did Journey. Space Chimps did better than I expected. That is a huge drop for Hellboy 2 btw. We're talking 70%+ drop...

[Jedi Master Carr]

wow for hellboy, I lowered my prediction by a lot, but I didn't it see it doing that badly. TDK is doing amazing buisness, heck I think it has a shot at 400 million.

[Ryan Pode]

Well, the Dark Knight and Hellboy sorta play to the same audiences. But dang, 66 million is unreal. I remember when 40 million was insane.

[Crusader]

I wonder how much ticket prices affect this number. Have ticket prices increased since Spiderman 3 or is this really a significant larger audience?

[Ryan Pode]

I wonder how much ticket prices affect this number. Have ticket prices increased since Spiderman 3 or is this really a significant larger audience?

I've seen it twice and both times my ticket was less than it was a couple years ago. I paid $5 each time.

[Yog]

I wonder how much ticket prices affect this number. Have ticket prices increased since Spiderman 3 or is this really a significant larger audience?

Minimal impact. Economy is almost in recession, and there is not much price inflation to speak of since last year.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm

Even if you took a year where the price leap was rather steep, like last years 5% increase, you would still only have like 62M OD for Spiderman 3 adjusted.

[Yog]

Weekend estimates
1. THE DARK KNIGHT 155.34 155.3
2. MAMMA MIA! 27.61 27.6
3. HANCOCK 14.00 191.5
4. JOURNEY TO THE CENTER OF THE EARTH 11.91 43.1
5. HELLBOY II: THE GOLDEN ARMY 10.04 56.4
6. WALL-E 9.81 182.5
7. SPACE CHIMPS 7.35 7.3
8. WANTED 5.10 123.3
9. GET SMART 4.08 119.6
10. KUNG FU PANDA 1.75 206.5

TDK daily numbers:
$67.8m Friday
$48.0m Saturday
$39.4m Sunday

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL well you beat me Yog :P

Amazing for TDK, Spiderman 3's OW record is history. Of course The Dark Knight actually deserves the record unlike Spiderman 3.
Hellboy 2 took a huge nose dive.

[Yog]

Of course The Dark Knight actually deserves the record unlike Spiderman 3.
Yeah, I am happy TDK has the opening record. Very deserving movie.

That was a ridiculous drop for Hellboy 2. Thats a -70.94% drop. Almost lost out to Wall-E, and the estimates are close enough that could still happen.

The opening record even gets some attention at CNN, how about that:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/SHOWBIZ/Movies/07/20/dark.knight.ap/index.html

[Jedi Master Carr]

so how high will TDK go? Can it make 400 million? I didn't think it was possible before this weekend. I do know the first Batman film adjusted for inflation is over 400 million.

[Yog]

so how high will TDK go? Can it make 400 million? I didn't think it was possible before this weekend. I do know the first Batman film adjusted for inflation is over 400 million.

I think it's going to be close, right now I am thinking about 380-390. The reason I am hesitant to call 400M is because the movie is so dark, and that tends to stop families / kids for repeat viewings further out in the run. The other reason is the market is so tough and competitive now. Movies are frontloaded this summer, almost no matter how good they are. Even Wall-E had to suffer 40-50% drops. Between video games, TV, DVD's and Internet, movie theaters have a lot to compete with, and in a slow economy.

I am thinking about 50-55% drop second weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it could do it, but it depends on its drops from here out. I agree with you it will be close. I am curious about its overseas numbers. So far only Australia has come it and it has already made 13 million there. Batman movies have done poorly overseas for various reasons. This would could change that, it could do 300-400 million overseas.

[CMJ]

Don't forget that usually BO is negatively affected during the Olympics.

[Jedi Master Carr]

It is usually is but this year it being Asia will hurt since we will know the results almost a day before. Still TDK will have made 80% of its by the time the Olympics hits so it won't impact its gross too much. It hitting 400 is going to depend on its weekday drops and this weekend's drops.

[CMJ]

It is usually is but this year it being Asia will hurt since we will know the results almost a day before.


NBC will be having coverage on about 7 channels. I expect we'll see alot of live coverage with only some of the "big" events taped for Primetime.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know but the Sydney games had lower ratings than Atlanta or Athens. The time difference does hurt some.

[CMJ]

I know but the Sydney games had lower ratings than Atlanta or Athens. The time difference does hurt some.

But for the Sydney games NBC didn't have all their cable networks showing tons of footage. I think MSNBC showed some baseball and softball games, but that was about it. They had wall to wall coverage for Athens. Literally they had 24 hour coverage for like 16 full days. I was unemployed at the time and watched about all of it. :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

Heh granted, still curious to see how the internet effects the games. People can find out the outcome faster now.

[CMJ]

Internet has probably had an effect for at least the last 2 Olmpiads already.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend Actuals
1. "The Dark Knight," Warner Bros., $158,411,483
2. "Mamma Mia!", Universal, $27,751,240, .
3. "Hancock," Sony, $14,040,178, .
4. "Journey to the Center of the Earth," Warner Bros., $12,340,435, .
5. "Hellboy II: The Golden Army," Universal, $10,117,815,


Accuracy Points
# 1 - 50 pts: Yog (The Dark Knight)
# 2 - 20 pts: Yog (Mamma Mia )
# 3 - 15 pts: CMJ(Hancock)
# 4 - 10 pts: CMJ (Journey to the Center of the Earth)
# 5 - 5 pts: Jedi Master Carr (Hellboy 2)

Weekend Points
Yog 85
CMJ 40
Jedi Master Carr 20
Lilaena De'Ville 10
Liam Jinn 10
Crusader 10
Ryan Pode 10


Contest Totals (Remember only top 12 scores are counted)
Yog: 515
Liam Jinn: 505
CMJ: 470
Jedi Master Carr: 375
Lilaena De'Ville: 330
Crusader: 315
Atreyu: 295
Ryan Pode: 235
Park Kraken 15

Double points really helped Yog this week. He jumped Liam and is now in first. Still it is a very close race between three people. Should be interested for the next month.

[Crusader]

so the battle between the leading 3 is still on! This is the last double weekend right?

[Jedi Master Carr]

nope still have Labor Day.