Summer Box Office Contest Week 4 predictions due 10 PM PST on Thursday

[Jedi Master Carr]

Memorial Day weekend is now here. You need to pick for 4 days for 4 movies and 5 for Indy. Indiana Jones comes out on Thursday. Here is this past weekend's actuals.

Weekend Actuals
1 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $55,034,805
2 Iron Man $31,838,996
3 What Happens in Vegas $13,883,874
4 Speed Racer $8,117,459
5 Made of Honor $4,702,950

Only one new release, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Points will be doubled this week so good luck.

[CMJ]

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 167.09M
2. Prince Caspian - 39.12M
3. Iron Man - 25.01M
4. What Happens in Vegas - 12.33M
5. Speed Racer - 5.31M

[Jedi Master Carr]

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 165.11M
2. Prince Caspian - 42.77M
3. Iron Man - 23.22M
4. What Happens in Vegas - 11.77M
5. Speed Racer - 4.99M

[Liam Jinn]

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $150.12
2. Prince Caspian - $30.23
3. Iron Man - $21.32
4. What Happens in Vegas - $9.4
5. Speed Racer - $4.13

I feel like I'm shooting too high for Indy, even on a 5 day run. Maybe I'll change my pick tomorrow and go lower. Then again, this is the first time I've tried this so I'm probably wrong.

Edit: Bah, I ended up going higher. Oh well

[Atreyu]

1. Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $158.25m
2. Chronicales of Narnia: Prince Caspian - $35.45m
3. Iron Man - $23.05m
4. What Happens in Vegas - $11.53m
5. Speed Racer - $4.36m

[Crusader]

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 169.25M
2. Prince Caspian - 32.25M
3. Iron Man - 24.31M
4. What Happens in Vegas - 9.25M
5. Made of Honor - 4.50M

[Yog]

I will post my Indy pick separately, in case I fall asleep before I decide on the rest of my picks.

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 174.79M

[Yog]

2. Prince Caspian - 37.55M
3. Iron Man - 26.33M
4. What Happens in Vegas - 9.88M
5. Speed Racer - 5.55M

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Dammit I totally forgot to post my pics!!! >_<

1. Indy $170.00
2. Caspian $40.28
3. Iron Man $24.59
4. Vegas $10.33
5. Speed Racer $4.02

[Ryan Pode]

Gah. 10 PM?! Coulda sworn it was 10 AM...

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - 156.40M
2. Prince Caspian - 32.75M
3. Iron Man - 27.86M
4. What Happens in Vegas - 8.11M
5. Made of Honor - 3.99M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Unless there are some objections, I will let it go, there are some guess estimates out there if you know where to look but those have been out there since 8PM EST last night.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are Mojo's numbers
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?view=34day&sortdate=2008-05-22&p=.htm

I have to say I am slightly disappointed. I didn't think it could make 50 million like SW this doesn't have a big fan base to do that. I did think though that it would do 30-35 million on Thursday, so 25 is disappointing. So, what does this mean? Well its tough to know for the next 4 days. It is possible that the target audience (25+) just wouldn't rush out to see and are willing to wait till Friday or even Monday to see it. It could still make 150-160 million, although the range to me seems more like 120-150. I guess we will have to see how it performs over the less of the weekend to really see. One thing it Liam is looking very good right now. He is the only one here that wasn't over predicting it by that much and he only seem to push it up when the rest of made ours.

[Crusader]

I am glad to have made of honor on my list instead of speed racer but it seems like ryan is a lot closer to where it will eventually end up. :) At least I can score on the low level a bit :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Indy had a better Friday
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-05-23&p=.htm
I think it will make 140-155 for the weekend right now probably right around 150.

[Atreyu]

Studio estimates from BoxOfficeMojo.com (Indy is 5-day, rest are 4-day):

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2008&wknd=21a&p=

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $151.08m
2. Prince Caspian - $28.64m
3. Iron Man - $25.65m
4. What Happens in Vegas - $11.15m
5. Speed Racer - $5.21m

Caspian really came down hard (-58% Fri-Sun compared to last weekend) - it'll be lucky to earn half the original. Good news for Indy though - it was looking a little shaky on Thurs but managed to pull through to over $150m. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Studio estimates from BoxOfficeMojo.com (Indy is 5-day, rest are 4-day):

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2008&wknd=21a&p=

1. Kingdom of the Crystal Skull - $151.08m
2. Prince Caspian - $28.64m
3. Iron Man - $25.65m
4. What Happens in Vegas - $11.15m
5. Speed Racer - $5.21m

Caspian really came down hard (-58% Fri-Sun compared to last weekend) - it'll be lucky to earn half the original. Good news for Indy though - it was looking a little shaky on Thurs but managed to pull through to over $150m. :)
Well with Indy I think you had a different crowd than Star Wars or Harry Potter most of them don't rush out and took their time. Memorial Day is also a very stretched weekend anyway so Indy did good 150 was the minimum I saw this doing. It did a little less than Pirates did last year so it should pass 300, although by how much who knows. I really think it will be a battle for #1 now iif the Dark Knight can do what it is capable of. I don't see either Wall E or Potter making more than the low 300 range so they won't pass it. Of course Potter will be #1 WW but that is another story. About Caspian it is a major disappointment now. It will be lucky to make about half what the first one did, to me that is a huge shock and really a bigger shock than Speed Racer bombing since I only saw that doing 100 million at the most.

[Yog]

I think Indy 4 does well enough really. I mean, the all time record was 172M for 5 days, and even though it did not beat that, it is still among the highest 5 days totals ever. It does a huge amount worldwide, and already earned it's budget money back.

Let's not forget, the indy movies are among the least frontloaded franchise ever. Temple of Doom opened to 25M, and did 175M total (7x multiplier!), Last Crusade opened to 37M and made 195M total (5x multiplier), and don't get me started about Raiders (28x multiplier!). Of course, it is an entirely different market now, where movies are far more frontloaded, but still, it says something about the legs of the franchise. It is definitely not your typical action blockbuster with 2.5 multiplier or whatever. A lot of people, families don't want to miss out on this, and will see this in the summer months, all the way until july / august, I expect.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Indy 4 does well enough really. I mean, the all time record was 172M for 5 days, and even though it did not beat that, it is still among the highest 5 days totals ever. It does a huge amount worldwide, and already earned it's budget money back.

Let's not forget, the indy movies are among the least frontloaded franchise ever. Temple of Doom opened to 25M, and did 175M total (7x multiplier!), Last Crusade opened to 37M and made 195M total (5x multiplier), and don't get me started about Raiders (28x multiplier!). Of course, it is an entirely different market now, where movies are far more frontloaded, but still, it says something about the legs of the franchise. It is definitely not your typical action blockbuster with 2.5 multiplier or whatever. A lot of people, families don't want to miss out on this, and will see this in the summer months, all the way until july / august, I expect.

Well I think it does 310-340 right now and probably 800-900 WW. It has a great shot at #1 domestic and will finish #2 behind Potter WW. I think it all depends on what The Dark Knight does, I have no clue what to expect from it except 250 is guaranteed. I will have the numbers up soon. I just saw that about July and August and really that isn't true anymore. The last film that played like that was TPM. Films are pulled regardless now after two months mainly because the studios care more about the DVD sales than what they get from theaters at the tail end of their runs. I guess it would still be in dollar theaters in August.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend Actuals
1 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $151,958,445 (5 Days)
2 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $29,810,163
3 Iron Man $26,111,130 
4 What Happens in Vegas $11,363,713 
5 Speed Racer $5,272,202 



Accuracy Points
# 1 - 50 pts: Liam Jinn(Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull)
# 2 - 40 pts: Liam Jinn (The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian )
# 3 - 30 pts: Yog (Iron Man )
# 4 - 20 pts: Atreyu (What Happens in Vegas)
# 5 - 10 pts: CMJ (Speed Racer)

Weekend Points
Liam Jinn 140
Yog 80
Atreyu 70
CMJ 60
Lilaena De'Ville 50
Jedi Master Carr 50
Ryan Pode 40
Crusader 40






Contest Totals (Remember only top 12 scores are counted)
Liam Jinn: 250
CMJ: 185
Jedi Master Carr: 160
Yog: 160
Atreyu: 135
Ryan Pode: 120
Crusader: 120
Lilaena De'Ville: 115

Liam takes the lead with a great weekend. Everybody though is still close enough that they can quickly catch up.
Let me know if you see any thing wrong.

[Liam Jinn]

Wow, I did have a good weekend. Luckily I edited that Indy pick higher than my original prediction. I guess peer pressure isn't all that bad. :)

[CMJ]

There went my lead. :(

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I hope I am not getting too comfortable here at the bottom of the leaderboards. :p

[Atreyu]

Good weekend for me - got all Top 5 (for once) and nailed What Happens in Vegas for the bonus points, on a weekend with all points doubled. At least I'm not coming last anymore. :)