Summer Box office Contest Week 1 predictions due Friday 10PM PST

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay time to start it off, the first weekend of the Box office contest is here. As a reminder here are the rules.

The 2008 Summer Box office contest rules
Here, are the rules for this year’s contest. If you have any question you may ask me or Yog.
Period of contest: 2nd of May to 1st of September

1. How to play: Each weekend, predict the order of the top 5 movies, and how much each film will make. To make sure people don’t make the same predictions, post your dollar figures to the nearest ten thousand, for example "25.58M" (25 million 580 thousand).

2. Movie Order Points: For every film you place in the correct order, you get 5 points. If you get #1- 5 right, you would get 25 points.

3. Accuracy Points: The closest person to each of the five films also gets points, and they are as follows;

# 1 - 25 pts
# 2 - 20 pts
# 3 - 15 pts
# 4 - 10 pts
# 5 - 5 pts

This year you don't have to get the movies in order. If you are closest to the #2 movie and picked it third you still get the points.

4. Double Points Weekends. Points are doubled on the following weekends:
* Memorial Day May 22 - May 26 (Indy comes out Thursday, so it will be 5 days) All points are doubled.
* 4th of July 3rd 6th All points are doubled.
* Labor day weekend August 29th - September 1st
* Batman weekend July 18th -July July 20th All points are doubled.

5. Vacation rule: New to the Contest this year, we will only count the your top 12 scores. So, if you miss a week or two you won’t be out of it.

6. Deadline: All predictions must be in by Friday 10PM PST every weekend. On double points weekends, special deadline will apply. Please make sure your predictions are in before the deadline, however, we may look the other way if the estimates are not yet made public and/or it is obvious such results have not been seen.

8. Who can play? Everyone. It is fun! You may enter or exit the contest at any time or post predictions whenever you like, as long it is within the deadline.

8. The winner: The player with the most points at the end of contest, wins instant fame and glory (being worshiped by the all the BO forum posters) AND a Supporter account!

Soon I will post the new releases and the top 5 from last week to give you and idea of the movies you should probably chose from.

[Jedi Master Carr]

New Releases
Iron Man
Made of Honor

Last weekend
1 Baby Mama 17.407
2 Harold and Kumar escape from Guantanamo Bay 14.908
3 The Forbidden Kingdom 11.212
4 Forgetting Sarah Marshall 11.028

[CMJ]

1. Iron Man 85.09M
2. Made of Honor 15.01M
3. Baby Mama 9.54M
4. Harold and Kumar 7.21M
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall 6.51M

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Before I post my picks I just want to say that The Forbidden Kingdom totally rocked and I bet its still on the top 5 next week. At least, I hope it is, because I think its a completely enjoyable movie and everyone should see it. :)

1 Iron Man 74.91
2 Baby Mama 11.52
3 Made of Honor 11.409
4 Harold and Kumar escape from Guantanamo Bay 9.87
5 The Forbidden Kingdom 6.11

[Jedi Master Carr]

5 and 6th will be very close between Forbidden Kingdom and Forgetting Sarah Marshall. The rest looks easy to predict order wise. Not sure what Maid of Honor will do. Should do mid teens at worse.

[Liam Jinn]

Alright, let's see what powers beer grants me...

1. Iron Man 78.3
2. Made of Honor 13.1
3. Baby Mama 11.7
4. Harold and Kumar 10.5
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall 9.45

[CMJ]

People...it's MADE of Honor. :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

People...it's MADE of Honor. :lol

LOL it shows how much I paid attention to the movie. A film like that I don't really care to see :p

[Crusader]

1 Iron Man 68.90
2 Made of Honor 17.6
3 Baby Mama 10.50
4 Harold and Kumar escape from Guantanamo Bay 8.54
5 Forgetting Sarah Marshall 8.35

I think Iron Man will stay beyond expectations :) but I will be happy to be wrong since I am going to watch it tonight :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Not sure how the Thursday shows are going to be counted. It could be like Pirates and Transformers last year and counted separately, I have no clue at this point so you might want to take that into consideration.

[Crusader]

"Off-topic" IRON MAN is a good movie and I was really surprised about how much I enjoyed this film. Maybe I should have given it more credit but I think I will stick to my prediction just in case my guts feeling was right in contrary to my new opinion on this film.

[Yog]

1. Iron Man 88.31M
2. Made of Honor 18.21M
3. Baby Mama 10.34M
4. Harold and Kumar 7.55M
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall 7.12M

[Jedi Master Carr]

1. Iron Man 78.57
2. Made of Honor 16.67M
3. Baby Mama 9.11M
4. Harold and Kumar 6.88M
5. Forbidden Kingdom 6.71M

[Yog]

Not sure how the Thursday shows are going to be counted. It could be like Pirates and Transformers last year and counted separately, I have no clue at this point so you might want to take that into consideration.

Anything before 12am probably goes into thursday numbers, and after 12am into friday numbers. That seems to be the norm for studio numbers lately. At least for major blockbusters.

[Ryan Pode]

1. Iron Man 102.07M
2. Made of Honor 18.00M
3. Harold and Kumar 6.89M
4. Baby Mama 6.50M
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall 5.40M

[Atreyu]

Is it too late to predict? I wasn't able to get online yesterday.

Here's my predictions anyhow:

1. Iron Man - 81.45M
2. Made of Honour - 15.75M
3. Baby Mama - 9.55M
4. Harold & Kumar - 7.10M
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall - 5.55M

[Yog]

^^ You should be fine :)

[Yog]

Iron Man' takes off worldwide
Paramount, Marvel film already at $60 milllion

Tribeca Film Festival Coverage "Iron Man" may have already earned more than $60 million worldwide, including an estimated Friday domestic take of $30 million or more for Paramount and Marvel Studios.
Overseas tallies already register more than $22 million, a figure that only accounts for admissions through Thursday in the 35 territories where Paramount Pictures released the movie. Non-Par territories include France, Germany and Spain, which means the overall foreign figure is probably more than $30 million.

Domestically, Paramount will not release Thursday-night numbers until Sunday. However, competing studios suggest that "Iron Man" pulled in roughly $5 million from its 8 p.m. shows Thursday night.

In terms of individual foreign territories, Mexico has been the top performer with $4 million in two days. South Korea is next with with $2.4 million. Italy opened with $1.7 million and Russia with $1.6 million, both on Thursday.

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117985058.html?categoryid=13&cs=1

Looks like a hit. Friday estimates will be posted later today when they are available.

[Yog]

Estimates at Box Office Mojo are up:

Iron Man
Thursday: $5,500,000
Friday: $32,500,000
Total: $38,000,000

As far as superhero movies goes, this is better than X-men, only surpassed by Spiderman. Summer Box Office season is ON ladies and gentlemen! :D


Here are the rest of the friday estimates
1. Iron Man $32,500,000
2. Made of Honor $5,400,000
3. Baby Mama $3,480,000
4. Harold and Kumar $2,100,000
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall $1,940,000
6. The Forbidden Kingdom $1,150,000

[Jedi Master Carr]

Wow great start. I was thinking more like 25-28 not counting Thursdays numbers. This might have a chance at 100 opening weekend well counting Thursday. The WOM on this film will be great.

[Yog]

The WOM on this film will be great.

Yes, the WOM will be terrific. I think many box office pundits will be blown away with the legs of this thing. While $300M may be a reach, I think it's possible. Of course the BOM and KJ posters scoff at the mere suggestion.. :)

A more pragmatic projection is 250M total gross, but I think it would be a mistake to underestimate the potential stamina of this movie. Many people including me were really not that interested in this movie until the euphoric reviews and theater reports started popping up.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will make 250 without a problem. The only thing that could keep it from 300 is Narnia and Indy coming out. Of course spiderman 3 did 340 last year and Shrek and Pirates both made over 300. And all those films didn't have very good WOM. With that in mind there is room for it to make 300. It will really need Speed Racer to disapoint next weekend though.

[Ryan Pode]

Iron Man cracked 100 mil.

[Yog]

Wow! That is spectacular. Good call on that 102M prediction, Ryan.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know Ryan went with a very bold prediction and it paid off. I never thought it make that much. I was thinking low 80's. Not sure if it can make it to 300 or not, would need a 2 multiplier. I think it will do 270-290 right now.

[Yog]

Weekend Actuals
1. Iron Man $98,618,668
2. Made of Honor $14,756,850
3. Baby Mama $10,065,010 -42.2%
4. Harold and Kumar $6,114,373 -59.0%
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall $6,059,920 -45.0%
6. The Forbidden Kingdom $4,187,897 -62.6%


Accuracy Points
# 1 - 25 pts: Ryan Pode (Iron Man)
# 2 - 20 pts: CMJ (Made of Honor)
# 3 - 15 pts: Yog (Baby Mama)
# 4 - 10 pts: Jedi Master Carr (Harold and Kumar)
# 5 - 5 pts: CMJ (Forgetting Sarah Marshall)


Weekend Points
CMJ: 50
Ryan Pode: 40
Yog: 40
Jedi Master Carr: 30
Atreyu: 25
Crusader: 25
Liam Jinn: 25
Lilaena De'Ville: 10

CMJ in the lead, followed by me and Ryan, and close race behind.

Notify me if you notice any errors.

[CMJ]

Step one towards a repeat?

[Atreyu]

Buggar about Harold & Kumar vs. Forgetting Sarah Marshall - less than a hundred grand swtcheroo between the 2 and I would have gained another 10 pts (for having the right order). :grumble

[Ryan Pode]

I was pretty surprised Iron Man grossed 100M. Its been a while since I've managed to finish the contest, but I think I will be able to do it this summer.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thanks Yog for getting this up. Some Mondays I won't be on early enough.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Haha, I totally bombed this weekend!

I plan on coming back strong next week! :shakefist