Box Office Contest 2008 - 101 Guide

[Yog]

I am making this as a reference thread including rules, a guide how to play, some links to box office news and resources, and how to make good predictions.

First off, the rules:


The 2008 Summer Box office contest rules
If you have any question you may ask Jedi Master Carr (http://www.sw-fans.net/forum/private.php?do=newpm&u=2848) or Yog (http://www.sw-fans.net/forum/private.php?do=newpm&u=2791).

Period of contest: 2nd of May to 1st of September

1. How to play: Each weekend, predict the order of the top 5 movies, and how much each film will make. To make sure people don’t make the same predictions, post your dollar figures to the nearest ten thousand, for example "25.58M" (25 million 580 thousand).

2. Movie Order Points: For every film you place in the correct order, you get 5 points. If you get #1- 5 right, you would get 25 points.

3. Accuracy Points: The closest person to each of the five films also gets points, and they are as follows;

# 1 - 25 pts
# 2 - 20 pts
# 3 - 15 pts
# 4 - 10 pts
# 5 - 5 pts

This year you don't have to get the movies in order. If you are closest to the #2 movie and picked it third you still get the points.

4. Double Points Weekends. Points are doubled on the following weekends:
* Memorial Day May 22 - May 26 (Indy comes out Thursday, so it will be 5 days) All points are doubled.
* 4th of July 3rd 6th All points are doubled.
* Labor day weekend August 29th - September 1st
* Batman weekend July 18th -July July 20th All points are doubled.

5. Vacation rule: New to the Contest this year, we will only count the your top 12 scores. So, if you miss a week or two you won’t be out of it.

6. Deadline: All predictions must be in by Friday 10PM PST every weekend. On double points weekends, special deadline will apply. Please make sure your predictions are in before the deadline, however, we may look the other way if the estimates are not yet made public and/or it is obvious such results have not been seen.

7. Who can play? Everyone. It is fun! You may enter or exit the contest at any time or post predictions whenever you like, as long it is within the deadline.

8. The winner: The player with the most points at the end of contest, wins instant fame and glory (being worshiped by the all the BO forum posters) AND a Supporter account!


For new players, I will give some examples how the points calculation work out in practice.

For example, let's say me and CMJ make some predictions one weekend. Here is how it would look like. The predictions are made in million dollars and are 3 day weekend numbers (friday to sunday) unless stated otherwise.

Yog
1. Spiderman 5 - 142.33M
2. James Bond, Never say die again - 65.72M
3. Zombie Nightmare 2 - 12.56M
4. Police Academy 9 - 9.32M
5. Karate Panda Bears - 7.04M

CMJ
1. Spiderman 5 - 134.58M
2. James Bond, Never say die again - 57.13M
3. Zombie Nightmare 2 - 10.71M
4. Shaolin Tennis - 8.92M
5. Police Academy 9 - 6.72M


And here are the actual results:
1. Spiderman 5 - 137.09M
2. James Bond, Never say die again - 63.52M
3. Zombie Nightmare 2 - 9.15M
4. Police Academy 9 - 7.01M
5. Karate Panda Bears - 6.95

Now, CMJ has the closest predictions for Spiderman, the Zombie Nighmare and Police Academy. That gives CMJ accuracy points for #1, #3 and #4 (25, 15 and 10 points respectively).

I have the closest predictions for James Bond and Karate Panda Bears. That gives me accuracy points for #2 and #5 (20 and 5 points respectively).

Finally, there is movie order points. I have ALL the movies in the correct order, giving me 5 points per movie, 5x5 = 25 points. CMJ has #1-3 in correct position, but sadly he has not Karate Panda Bears among his predictions, so no points for that one, and Police Academy he placed at #5 instead of #4. #1-3 gives him 5x3 = 15 movie order points.

The weekend total is:
Yog: 20+5+25= 50
CMJ: 25+15+10+15= 65

CMJ wins that weekend with 65 points vs my 50 points.


How to post predictions
To participate is very simple. Post predictions using the format I posted in the examples. You should use decimals to make sure no one else makes exactly the same pick. The numbers are always in million dollars. If you have no idea what numbers you should predict, just look at what some of the more experienced contesters are predicting, and post something in similar range. Predicting box office is not an exact science. There are so many factors involved. Some people just spin a carrot to decide their numbers. And you don't need to be a box office pundit to do well. Lady DeVille almost won last year on her first try.

There are some ways you can make more educated guesses however, and probably improve the accuracy of your predictions. If you want to learn more about that, read the next part of my guide coming up shortly.. :)

[Yog]

Basic Box Office Principles

What determines a movies success or fall at the box office? Here are the most important factors to consider:

1. Anticipation. Is there lots of buzz for this movie? Are your friends talking about and planning to see it? The more anticipated a movie is, the more money it will make in box office. This is THE most important factor deciding a movie's box office potential.
Examples of highly anticipated movies right now: Indiana Jones 4 and Dark Knight.


2. Fan base. If the movie is part of a franchise, it already got a fan base. It could be books, comics, toys, TV series, previous movies etc. Looking at how popular the franchise is and comparing it with other franchises, you can get an impression how much the movie will make. The most important indicator is previous movies. Most Harry Potter movies make in the 250-300M district domestically. LOTR was about the most read book after the bible, and the movies were well received. Star Wars had a HUGE fan base.


3. Advertising & Media Coverage. How focused and visible is the marketing? Does it appeal the target audience? Are people clapping and cheering or sleeping after a trailer? The more advertising, the better. TV spots, posters, trailers in front of blockbuster movies, super bowl commercials... you name it. The more you hear about it in the media, the higher awareness level. Good marketing increases anticipation. If it's particularly good, it can be expected to do well opening weekend. How much is spent on marketing gives a good indication of visibility. In most movies with high production budget, there was also spent a lot of money on advertising.
Examples of BAD advertising: "The Island", "Pluto Nash".
Examples of GOOD advertising: Spiderman, Iron Man


4. Word of Mouth. Once a movie has been released, people will start talking whether they like or hate it. If you heard a lot of "OMG you must see this movie, it was so cool!!!" and even your pet hamster is talking about it, chances are the movie will have good legs and maintain a streak with low drops from one weekend to the other. If on the other hand Word of Mouth is poor, it will likely drop fast..
Example of great WOM: "300".
Bad WOM: Fantastic 4.


5. Budget. Big budget means higher production values in terms of visual effects, salary of high profile actors, the directors, producers, writers etc. This tends to draw crowds. Big budget usually also means big advertising budget. More advertising means more people will know about it. Nowadays, +200M budgets are not unheard of. And if it was that expensive to make, you could bet the studio is doing everything it can to make the money back.


6. Demographic. Wide demographic means wide potential audience. There are two ways to measure this. Toward who is the marketing targeted at. Does it appeal to all age groups or just a narrow age segment? What about the rating? Is it PG13 or R-rated? There are very few R-rated blockbusters. If you cut out the kids and most of the teenage market, it's limited how much a movie can make.


7. Reviews. Critique is generally not important for kids- and teenager- movies opening numbers, but for 30 year olds and above, reviews can sometimes make a difference. More significantly, good reviews often tell a lot about the legs of a movie, since good reviews frequently corresponds with good Word of Mouth.


8. Starpower. Popular actors can really help movies make money. Sometimes, the stars draw great box office numbers of their own. One of the most solid and bankable box office draws the last couple of decades was Tom Cruise. About all of his movies make more than $100M domestically. Before that, it was Tom Hanks. In the 80s, it was Harrison Ford. The thing about star actors, they shine brightly while they are popular, but at some point they tend to lose their sparkle.. box office wise that is.


9. Genre. Some genres do better than others. Art house movies about goat herding in the Himalayas make less than epic flicks with your favourite superheroes and lots of explosions. That's just the way it is. Big budget action movies and certain animation (Pixar etc) tend to make the most. Then it's drama, comedies and thrillers that can do decent, but generally not quite as much. Horror movies tend to make quite a bit less and documentaries rarely make an impact at box office at all. Sometimes, it's a mix of different genres appealing to a wide group of audience.
Narrow genre appeal: Pan's Labyrinth, Children of Men, Babel, Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Wide genre appeal: Pirates of the Caribbean, James Bond, Spiderman


10. Subject Matter. Is the subject matter relevant to popular culture in general? Does it relate to a large amount of people? Has it been done before? Look at how similar movies did, to get an idea of the potential. Bonus points if the movie is based on a popular culture phenomenon while rarely been put on film. Also, if it's done the exactly the same way before in a recent release, it reduces the potential. Passion of the Christ did so well, cause of subject matter and the controversy around it, it became a phenomenon. Titanic is another example.


11. Theater count, running length, #prints. If a movie is running at a low number of theaters, there is a mathematical limit how well it can do at release, even though it may have good legs. Also, if there is a low amount of prints and the running length is long, it limits how often it can be shown in a time frame. There is a huge difference between an animation feature running at 1h30m released at more than 3000 theaters and a 3.5 hour drama released in 1.500 theaters. Don't expect opening records from the later..


12. Competition. If there are similar types of movies released at the same time, the moviegoers have to choose which movie to see. This hurts the gross of both movies at opening. Also if two highly anticipated movies are released at the same time, this also hurts the gross for both, as most people only watch 1 movie per weekend. One example of high competition was the year when Shrek 3, Spiderman 3 and POTC3 were all released the same month.

[Yog]

Glossary

Word of Mouth (WOM) - the amount of buzz (positive or negative) after a theatrical release.

Legs - stamina, low percentage weekend dropoffs. Usually movies that have good WOM also have good legs, and vice versa.

Tracking - various methods of gauging the interest in a movie prior to release. Many types: user reviews, online ticket sales, trailer views, media exposure, polls etc.

Dropoffs - the percentage drop from weekend to weekend.

Frontloaded - when a movie opens big and drops fast, poor legs.

Multiplier - multiply daily or weekend gross to predict future income.



General tips

Weekend Multiplier
A movie will generally make about 3 times the Friday gross over the weekend. This is true for the vast majority of movies. The basic rule of thumb is, take the Friday number and multiply by 3 to get the weekend (3-day) number. The average seems to be a little higher, about 3.2. Here are some <a href=http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/WBOMultiplier.php>examples</a>. Multiplier varies with demographic of the movie, and when people have time off. Horror movies, and heavily teenage focused flicks draw big Friday numbers, so they tend to have a lower multiplier. This is because teens and young adults prefer rushing out to see a movie ahead of the pack, and a lot of the traffic is on Friday evening / night. Kids / family oriented movies and romantic comedies will have a bigger multiplier, sometimes as high as 4 (huge Saturday number). The reason is kids have school on Friday, and their parents may not find time when the kids are home in the afternoon/evening, so they take them on Saturday to a matinee or afternoon show. Most of the time, Saturday number is bigger than Friday, and Sunday number is ALWAYS lower than Friday.

Total Gross Multiplier
A movie will generally make about 3 times the opening weekend gross during it's full run. If a movie opens to about 50M, we can expect it to make about 150M total. This varies with the kind of legs a movie has and demographic. A movie with poor Word of Mouth and horrible reviews might only make 2.5 it's opening. While a a movie with lots of buzz and repeat viewings, could make 3.5 or higher. Animation flicks and family movies tend to have real high multipliers, around 4.

Weekday to weekend multiplier
A little secret of mine. Comparing <a href=http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/>weekday numbers</a> with <a href=http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/>weekend numbers</a>, you can project weekend by multiplying the weekday numbers. I am not going to throw out any specific numbers, since this depends on genre, the length of theater run and even time of the year, but it is a useful tool for predicting holdovers. By studying patterns, you may sometimes be able to nail it down with uncanny accuracy.

Drop offs
The weekend drops often corellates with WOM and genre. Horror movies generally drop faster than other types, 50-60% drops are not uncommon. While romantic comedies often drop in the 30% range. Action movies tend to be in the middle 45-50%. Make note of the weekday drops as well, as it gives a hint of how much it is going to drop during the weekend.

Yahoo ratios
A method of projecting weekend gross by looking at number of yahoo user reviews, extrapolating ratios (depending on genre). Read <a href=http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=115>this thread</a> for more details.

[Yog]

Box Office resources and links

General Box Office Sites
Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/) (the biggest site around. Great for box office statistics)
The Numbers (http://www.the-numbers.com/) (lots of great statistics)

Box Office Predictions - some sites with box office predictions and analysis.
Box Office Guru (http://www.boxofficeguru.com/)
Box Office Report (http://boxofficereport.com/)
Box Office Prophets (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/)
Lees Movie Info (http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/)
Weekend Warrior (http://www.comingsoon.net/weekendwarrior/)

Various Box Office pundit forums
Box Office Mojo (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/forums/viewforum.htm?f=2)
WorldofKJ (http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=12)
Hollywood Stock Exchange (http://talk.hsx.com/films/)

MISC
Rotten Tomatoes (http://www.rottentomatoes.com/)
Internet Movie Data Base (http://www.imdb.com/)
Apple Trailers (http://www.apple.com/trailers/)
Yahoo user reviews (http://movies.yahoo.com/feature/thisweekend.html)
Internet buzz tracking thread (http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=21515&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0)

Online Ticket Sales - here are some sites to check for sellouts
Fandango City, Manhattan (http://www.fandango.com/theaterlistings.aspx?pn=2&location=manhattan%2cny)
AMC Empire 25, New York (http://www.movietickets.com/house_detail.asp?house_id=7114&house_pos=0&movie_id=0&ShowDate=0)
Cinemark, Colorado (http://www.cinemark.com/theater_showtimes.asp?theater_id=301)