100 million dollar movies 2008 and top 10 best films of 2008

[Jedi Master Carr]

The Year so far, updated on January 19th
1. The Dark Knight $531,027,799
2. Iron Man $318,412,101
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $317,101,119
4. Hancock $227,946,274
5.Wall E $223,808,164
6. Kung Fu Panda $215,434,591
7. Twilight $184,575,000
8. Madagascar Escape 2 Africa $178,267,000
9. Quantum of Solace $167,535,553
10. Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,529,187
11. Sex and the City $152,647,258
12. Mamma Mia $144,130,063
13. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $141,621,490
14. The Incredible Hulk $134,806,913
15. Wanted $134,508,551
16. Marley and Me $133,859,000
17. Get Smart $130,319,208
18. Four Christmases $119,664,000
19. Bolt $112,091,984
20. Tropic Thunder $110,515,313
21. Bedtime Stories $104,989,000
22. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button $103,628,000
23. The Mummy 3 $102,491,776
24. Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D $101,704,370
25. Eagle Eye $101,440,743
26. Step Brothers $100,468,793
27. You don't Mess with the Zohan $100,018,837

This will be updated as the year goes on.

[Yog]

I would be shocked if Indiana Jones does not have the highest gross this year.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I wouldn't be I think Dark Knight will beat it and I think Ledger's death is going to play a role. People are going to turn into see his last movie. Still, I thought Batman might pull the upset for some time. Batman Begins had great WOM and a lot of people caught it on DVD and cable loved it too. I also think it is in a great position in July when it has less competition. Batman has little competition then. Indy has to face Narnia which will hurt it slightly (it will hurt both films, IMO).

[Yog]

I am not sure that tragedy helps Dark Knight. How are they going to market the movie now? It gives the movie a factor of being morbid. It reminds me of The Crow. Those who were going to see the movie will see it anyway, and those who would not, why would they find the movie more interesting because a member of the cast died?

Also, I still think Indy 4 is the only movie which can and will make 400M this year.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am not sure that tragedy helps Dark Knight. How are they going to market the movie now? It gives the movie a factor of being morbid. It reminds me of The Crow. Those who were going to see the movie will see it anyway, and those who would not, why would they find the movie more interesting because a member of the cast died?

Also, I still think Indy 4 is the only movie which can and will make 400M this year.

I don't think Indy will make 400. I stated why before. It doesn't have the it factor and younger generations interested. 300-350 is really where it is going to lie. I think Batman has the it factor going for it. Batman is still very popular. The first movie adjusted for inflation would be over 400 million (that won't happen) but a total close to 350 should. A lot of people avoided Begins because they were afraid they get another Batman and Robin. As for marketing, well I don't think they push Ledger's death. I was thinking his death put the movie more in the spotlight. I am not sure how much it will effect it honestly. I don't think it will hurt it though, but it might not be the reason it makes its money.

[Yog]

I don't think Indy will make 400. I stated why before. It doesn't have the it factor and younger generations interested. 300-350 is really where it is going to lie.

Holy crap, I must be an old fart if teenagers are no longer interested in the man with the hat and bullwhip any longer. Have the young audience become so transparent? You would think recognition of the franchise alone would push it, especially when it has been so long since the last movie. If it's something I heard a lot in the 90's and and even in the early 00s, it was "I heard they are planning to make a 4th Indy movie!". I expect anyone who been to an action movie for the last 5 years in a theater will want to see it. Even my mother, who never goes to the movies and says "there is way too much shooting in movies today" is going to see it. My father too, he usuall only sees movies based on real life stories, dramas etc.

But seriously, you think teenagers are going to avoid Indy 4? How come teenagers run out to see spin offs like National Treasure and The Mummy with sequels? It's because the absense of Indy opened up a hole in the market. The orginal has so much more power, appeal, name recognition and an already existing fanbase, and near 20 years of anticipation.


I am not sure how much it will effect it honestly. I don't think it will hurt it though, but it might not be the reason it makes its money.

I think it neither hurts it or helps it to be honest. I think it makes marketing tricky for Warner though, becacause they have to be careful not to offend anyone.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know a lot of people younger than me who are more interested in Batman than Indy. Not saying that will keep people from seeing it. You mentioned National Treasure sure those movie have done good but none of them have done great and I think they both would have done horrible in the summer. Disney put them at the perfect time. I just think Batman has the it factor going for it more than Indy so it will end up edging it out.

One thing I have to admit I don't think I am underestimating Indy but I might be underestimating Narnia. With Caspian I am thinking that it was viewed similarly to that of the first Harry Potter movie. So,it will have a drop like Potter. Caspian is the least liked of the Narnia books (much like Chamber of secrets is the least liked of the Potter books). So I figured it be similar, but their is the Christian factor and I am not sure how much of that boosted Lion witch and the Wardrobe. Caspian could shock me and make over 300 but I guess we will see.

[Crusader]

I think Jedi Master Carr might be right. Some old franchises are hard to revive although I would never dare to call Indy a dead franchise but the younger generation is pretty ignorant sometimes: For example the 4th Rambo movie is beaten at the box office by the creators of epic and date movie...
Also I have to agree on the Heath Ledger factor: This guy is famous for his appearences in romantic chick flicks or at least as the romantic factor in a movie like in 10 things I hate about you, the patriot or a knight's tale. So it would make sense that some of the none die hard Ledger fans watch this movie instead of skipping it although he is not portraying a loveable character in this movie.

[Yog]

You mentioned National Treasure sure those movie have done good but none of them have done great and I think they both would have done horrible in the summer. Disney put them at the perfect time.Wait whaaaat? National Treasure is the perfect summer movie. What better time to release popcorn action adventure movies than the summer? It's not a christmas season fantasy movie like Narnia, Harry Potter and LOTR. I think NT would have done more during the summer actually.

But anyway, never mind that. My point was, those are spin offs. They were impressive at box office considering what they started with. It is evidence the formula works. As a general rule, you need an established franchise and / or an already known character / book from popular culture to approach 300-400M territory, unless the name of the studio is Pixar. An established franchise like... wait a minute, ah yes! Indiana Jones!. There are freak exceptions of course, like Titanic and SW (1977), but those are box office phenomenons.

NT and Mummy movies had very little going for them except the theme of Indy style adventure, and action / special effects of course.




I just think Batman has the it factor going for it more than Indy so it will end up edging it out.If you ask me, Indy 4 absolutely dwarfs the other movies released this summer for it factor.




Caspian could shock me and make over 300 but I guess we will see.That would shock me too!

* fantasy movie in the summer
* not nearly as popular as HP
* first movie was a bit mneh
* second book is not nearly as interesting as the opening premise of the first book

I think it's going to take a hit. In fact, I think it will do less than you predict, maybe as low as 250M.




the 4th Rambo movie is beaten at the box office by the creators of epic and date movie...The Rambo series had already been spiralling down after Rambo III which only made some 50M+, a big drop from First Blood II which made a terrific 150M being a sequel to a movie with amazing word of mouth. 2 & 3 were not even close to First blood in quality though, thus the fall of the franchise. Then comes the 4th movie along, with unprecedented amount of gore and violence, and amazingly terrible reviews. That's why it's doing poor at box office. Almost no one is willing to check it out because they think it's going to suck.

Compare this to Indy movies. I will be using box office numbers adjusted for inflation since it's so long time ago, and because it is the most accurate way of measuring box office performance:
Raiders: $601M (!)
Doom $365M
Crusade: $337M

So what happened there? Basically, the first movie was awesome, by most considered the best in the series and had an amazing WOM. Then comes Temple of Doom, which was way too dark, cheesy, and over the top. Not even in the same league as the first movie. It still made a very healthy 365M based on the reputation of Raiders and the existing fan base though. Then comes Last Crusade, which is much better than Temple of Doom, yet with Temple of Doom fresh in memory, it does not do quite as much.

We can basically see similar trends for Star Wars movies and various other franchises. When a sequel follows after a movie with great reputation, it will do great at box office, but even more so if it is actually good. If however a sequel follows a movie with lukewarm reputation, it will do worse at box office, but the drop will be softened if it is good.

Bottom line, the Indy franchise ended on a very positive note, and in retrospect has gained new fans over the years. Guess what is the most sold DVD box set of all time. Star Wars OT? Nope. It's The Indiana Jones Trilogy...



Also I have to agree on the Heath Ledger factor: This guy is famous for his appearences in romantic chick flicks or at least as the romantic factor in a movie like in 10 things I hate about you, the patriot or a knight's tale. So it would make sense that some of the none die hard Ledger fans watch this movie instead of skipping it although he is not portraying a loveable character in this movie.Star factor helps, but it's a very different type of role as you pointed out though, not really his fan base. His movies also had limited box office impact (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?id=heathledger.htm). The lure of his role is not so much his name, but the character: The Joker. My argument is people want to watch this movie for the Joker, not because they love romantic flicks or as a ceremonial farewell with a celebrity. They come for a high quality action movie, with Batman and his arch nemesis.

[Yog]

Oh, Jedi Master Carr. Looks like you'll have to add Star Wars - The Clone Wars (http://www.sw-fans.net/forum/showthread.php?t=17633) for the August slot :)

[Crusader]

Is it blasphemy to be worried about this movie?

[Yog]

Is it blasphemy to be worried about this movie?

You are worried about the quality of The Clone Wars or if it will bomb? I am not hyped about it, but the trailer seems cool enough I guess. I fear it might have a weak story, but then again, maybe it will have a stronger story if Lucas let others write. I think Clone Wars should make 200M+ because it's a pretty high profile animation flick, and because of the the strength of the franchise.

I have been scratching my head today trying to figure out what Lucas is doing. The way I see it, it's basically a full animated motion picture as a pilot episode for a series. It is actually a pretty clever marketing trick, giving the bonus effect of box office profits on it's own. You see, Lucas could put anything out on theaters with the Star Wars logo slapped on, and it would make the fans rush out to see it like lemmings (I am one of them :().

SW: The Clone Wars probably has a fraction of the production budget of what it would cost to make a live action Star Wars movie. With animation, you don't have to spend as much on state of the art CGI & visual effects, production sets, on location shooting, cast etc. Lucas can also leave most of the script writing to others, basically just approve it as producer. This way, he can make some profits for low risk, which is exactly what he has been talking about in previous interviews. The man is a businessman, and knows how to squeeze the maximum amount of juice from the SW orange.

Personally, I am more excited about is the live action TV series. But sure, I will watch SW: The Clone Wars in a theater, and so will most of the Star Wars fan base..

He is somewhat going back on his promise of "no more SW movies!" though, even if is animated. Countdown until he calls Spielberg and says "Hey, I have this great idea for a new live action SW movie, and I want you to direct it!".

[Crusader]

Maybe my first reaction was wrong because suddenly the ugly first few episodes of the comic series popped up in my head.
The trailer and the featuret look kind of kewl but they come with the promise to show a clone war 1.2: This time we show all that cool stuff that you expected of it after watching Episode 4.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Oh, Jedi Master Carr. Looks like you'll have to add Star Wars - The Clone Wars (http://www.sw-fans.net/forum/showthread.php?t=17633) for the August slot :)

I definitely need to be added. I need to come up with an argument for Indiana Jones not doing as well as you think but I will have to do a good job countering your argument and that will have to be later. I will say I still don't think the 16-25 age group is real hot on it. I know some people that age and everyone of them want to see Batman and are very meh about Indy. I don't think the character resonates with that age group which will keep it from getting close to 400 million. To me nothing makes 400 this year, actually 2008 looks like a down year. I only see two films passing 300 from the Summer (unless something surprises like Wall-E). I do think we will have at least 3 300 movies this year. I think Harry Potter will be the third, I say this because the Potter films do better the winter. Also OOTP made more money than GOF so I think HBP will just pass 300.

[Liam Jinn]

Yog, I LOVE the Indy movies. That being said, I know very little about box office crap, but I doubt Indy will do as well as you think. I'd love to see it in theaters, but I'm cool with just owning it on DVD later on. I saw the other Indy films on VHS as a kid, so I don't feel I'd be missing that much by waiting. Most of the people I know my age never saw the originals in theater, though we still love the series. If we miss the showing, not a big deal, it's one more DVD we add to our collection later on. Batman, I'd rather see in theaters.. Hell it's the Joker reborn, in our generation.

Bah, that's my opinion. I dunno what I'm saying exactly, especially since I like the Indy series better. But this is a new Batman, for our age, I think that's what it boils down to. Indy has my heart, but competing in this BO, mneh. (I'll most likely see this in theaters anyways.)

I'm kinda drunk, so there.

[Yog]

To me nothing makes 400 this year, actually 2008 looks like a down year.

I agree it's a down year. For one thing, none of the major box office juggernaut franchises like spider-man, shrek or POTC are released during the summer. Well, there is Harry Potter in the winter season, which should do well. We also mentioned Dark Knight, but that is released in the middle of July. Down year is good though when it comes to prospect of 400M potential. It means chances are greater the biggest blockbusters end up on your "to see list". You also don't have them running neck to neck like may last year.

I looked at the release calendar, and I am a little puzzled why you thought Indy has tough competition (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=&date=2008-05-02&showweeks=5&p=.htm). Lets take a look at the schedule!

Week -3
- Iron Man. Ok Iron Man could be huge, but this is 3 weeks ahead! I also imagine it's frontloaded. 250M ceiling.
- Made of Honor. Romantic Comedy. Yawn.

Week -2
- Speed Racer. Unknown actors. Trailer is unimpressive, confusing and noisy.
- What Happens In Vegas. Cameron Diaz. ANOTHER romantic comedy. You gotta be kidding me.

Week - 1
- Caspian. This is the obvious main competitor to Indy. For reasons I already explained, I think it will do well but not as good as first movie. I guess around 250M if even that. I even have the creepy feeling it might flop somewhat. The big question is how good legs this will have, because it will run vs Indy in the weeks ahead.
- Midnight Meat Train. Horror / thriller. Limited box office and different market.

Week 0.
Indiana Jones 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
There is nothing else of interest the weekend Indy releases. Nothing. Zero. Nada. One foreign movie released in one theater in NYC (LOL!). Here is where it get's really good though. For a full month after Indy 4, you have a series of releases which either have questionable box office potential, or different interest groups than the action movie goers. Which is excellent news for a movie with legs like Indy:

Week +1
- Meet Dave with Eddie Murphy (Pluto Nash anyone?)
- Sex and the City (ahahahahah!)

Week +2
- Kung Fu Panda (???). Dreamworks Animation. I guess the kids / teenagers will go see this. It looks amusing enough, but I am tired of talking animals.
- You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Adam Sandler. Most of his movies hover in 100-150M territory. They are not frontloaded though, and it's a different target audience)

Week +3
- The Happening. M. Night Shymalan. I seen no marketing for this, and his popularity dropped like rock since the Village. The last movie made 42M, and I have no idea about this one. Again, very different target audience.
- The Incredible Hulk. Last attempt flopped horribly, and the audience should have that fresh in mind. NO marketing! I dare not make a prediction.

Week +4
- Get Smart. The trailer is very funny. It's more comedy than action though, and now we're 4 weeks behind Indy 4. I think it could do 150M or so, but not the kind of movie that would be frontloaded.
- The Love Guru. Comedy with Mike Myers. Terrible matchup with Get Smart, which most will see instead. I seen no marketing.

Week +5
- Wall-E. Pixar. FINALLY competition. I think it could do better than Rattatouile. This is animated though, and not action movie.
- Wanted. Morgan Freeman and Angelina Jolie. Finally, an action adventure! Looks very cool. Could be a surprise hit. But now we're 5 weeks after Indy 4! And it's not a known franchise.

So basically, we're looking at minium 4 weeks with weak competition, and no direct competitor than Caspian, which will already be weakened after week 1. Not bad at all. If you instead had Iron Man opening the week before, and Dark Knight a week after, or maybe even Wall-E, then I agree the competition would be tough. But Dark Knight opens 2 months after, which gives Indy an important head start on the summer box office season. Also Iron Man opens a full 3 weeks before, and can under no circumstance be compared with Spidey 3 of last year, which had a similar launch window. The REAL opener of the summer Box Office season is Indy 4!





I'm kinda drunk, so there.
I noticed.. ;)


Most of the people I know my age never saw the originals in theater, though we still love the series. If we miss the showing, not a big deal, it's one more DVD we add to our collection later on. Batman, I'd rather see in theaters.. Hell it's the Joker reborn, in our generation.
This does not make any sense to me!

- You like Indy movies better, yet rather want to see Batman in a theater? Think of it this way, this may be the only chance you ever get to see an Indy movie in a theater, unless you count reruns.

- The former generation of Batman movies are not even that old. There were 4 movies from 89 to 97. Then there is "Mask of Phantasm" (93), which no one probably heard of. And then there is Catwoman (2004). And then there are umtillion other superhero movies released every year. Ok, so Batman Begins was much better, but don't you think they squeezed this orange enough already?

Trivia: Can you guess what other huge franchise young generations never saw in theaters but had on video? Star Wars!

[Jedi Master Carr]

To me nothing makes 400 this year, actually 2008 looks like a down year.

I agree it's a down year. For one thing, none of the major box office juggernaut franchises like spider-man, shrek or POTC are released during the summer. Well, there is Harry Potter in the winter season, which should do well. We also mentioned Dark Knight, but that is released in the middle of July. Down year is good though when it comes to prospect of 400M potential. It means chances are greater the biggest blockbusters end up on your "to see list". You also don't have them running neck to neck like may last year.

I looked at the release calendar, and I am a little puzzled why you thought Indy has tough competition (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=&date=2008-05-02&showweeks=5&p=.htm). Lets take a look at the schedule!

Week -3
- Iron Man. Ok Iron Man could be huge, but this is 3 weeks ahead! I also imagine it's frontloaded. 250M ceiling.
- Made of Honor. Romantic Comedy. Yawn.

Week -2
- Speed Racer. Unknown actors. Trailer is unimpressive, confusing and noisy.
- What Happens In Vegas. Cameron Diaz. ANOTHER romantic comedy. You gotta be kidding me.

Week - 1
- Caspian. This is the obvious main competitor to Indy. For reasons I already explained, I think it will do well but not as good as first movie. I guess around 250M if even that. I even have the creepy feeling it might flop somewhat. The big question is how good legs this will have, because it will run vs Indy in the weeks ahead.
- Midnight Meat Train. Horror / thriller. Limited box office and different market.

Week 0.
Indiana Jones 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
There is nothing else of interest the weekend Indy releases. Nothing. Zero. Nada. One foreign movie released in one theater in NYC (LOL!). Here is where it get's really good though. For a full month after Indy 4, you have a series of releases which either have questionable box office potential, or different interest groups than the action movie goers. Which is excellent news for a movie with legs like Indy:

Week +1
- Meet Dave with Eddie Murphy (Pluto Nash anyone?)
- Sex and the City (ahahahahah!)

Week +2
- Kung Fu Panda (???). Dreamworks Animation. I guess the kids / teenagers will go see this. It looks amusing enough, but I am tired of talking animals.
- You Don't Mess with the Zohan (Adam Sandler. Most of his movies hover in 100-150M territory. They are not frontloaded though, and it's a different target audience)

Week +3
- The Happening. M. Night Shymalan. I seen no marketing for this, and his popularity dropped like rock since the Village. The last movie made 42M, and I have no idea about this one. Again, very different target audience.
- The Incredible Hulk. Last attempt flopped horribly, and the audience should have that fresh in mind. NO marketing! I dare not make a prediction.

Week +4
- Get Smart. The trailer is very funny. It's more comedy than action though, and now we're 4 weeks behind Indy 4. I think it could do 150M or so, but not the kind of movie that would be frontloaded.
- The Love Guru. Comedy with Mike Myers. Terrible matchup with Get Smart, which most will see instead. I seen no marketing.

Week +5
- Wall-E. Pixar. FINALLY competition. I think it could do better than Rattatouile. This is animated though, and not action movie.
- Wanted. Morgan Freeman and Angelina Jolie. Finally, an action adventure! Looks very cool. Could be a surprise hit. But now we're 5 weeks after Indy 4! And it's not a known franchise.

So basically, we're looking at minium 4 weeks with weak competition, and no direct competitor than Caspian, which will already be weakened after week 1. Not bad at all. If you instead had Iron Man opening the week before, and Dark Knight a week after, or maybe even Wall-E, then I agree the competition would be tough. But Dark Knight opens 2 months after, which gives Indy an important head start on the summer box office season. Also Iron Man opens a full 3 weeks before, and can under no circumstance be compared with Spidey 3 of last year, which had a similar launch window. The REAL opener of the summer Box Office season is Indy 4!





I'm kinda drunk, so there.
I noticed.. ;)


Most of the people I know my age never saw the originals in theater, though we still love the series. If we miss the showing, not a big deal, it's one more DVD we add to our collection later on. Batman, I'd rather see in theaters.. Hell it's the Joker reborn, in our generation.
This does not make any sense to me!

- You like Indy movies better, yet rather want to see Batman in a theater? Think of it this way, this may be the only chance you ever get to see an Indy movie in a theater, unless you count reruns.

- The former generation of Batman movies are not even that old. There were 4 movies from 89 to 97. Then there is "Mask of Phantasm" (93), which no one probably heard of. And then there is Catwoman (2004). And then there are umtillion other superhero movies released every year. Ok, so Batman Begins was much better, but don't you think they squeezed this orange enough already?

Trivia: Can you guess what other huge franchise young generations never saw in theaters but had on video? Star Wars!

The thing about Narnia that make it unpredictable is the Christian groups. I know for the first one they bused people to see it. I think that is why it made almost 300 million. The question is will they show up in those numbers this time? I really don't know myself. I think it might do better than we think but we shall see. I wish it won't because I have to hear Narnia fans say it is a bigger franchise than Potter.
Okay about Indy I don't think you can compare it to Star Wars. SW has a fan base 3 times that size. Indy's fanbase is small. As far as franchises goes
I would rank them like this
1 Star Wars
2 Potter
3 LOTR
After that it be close between Batman and Spiderman, probably should throw Pirates in there. Indy really don't have a big fan base. It has never been marketed to kids and it really has more nostalgia going for it. I think it will do over 300 for that reason though. I just can't see how an Indy movie would make more money than the last two Star wars movies, especially when that movie have larger fanbases.

[Yog]

The thing about Narnia that make it unpredictable is the Christian groups. Hmmm.. good point. That makes it somewhat unpredictable, I agree.

But hold on a second. If christians is such a huge factor, does that not favor Indy 4? It seems to me, if they were going because they were action adventure fans, it would provide direct competition to Indy, but this is not the case because they are simply fans of the books or christans? Actually thinking about it, it's not even action adventure. It's fantasy.



Okay about Indy I don't think you can compare it to Star Wars. SW has a fan base 3 times that size. Indy's fanbase is small.
Oh, SW fanbase is much larger, no argument there. The reason I mentioned SW is, that's a good example of how an older franchise can bring new generations of fans. The video sales were strong indications of box office potential for younger audiences, those who never had a chance to watch it in a movie theater.

But when you talk about the size of SW fan base, you also have to keep in mind, SW movies are also less attractive for casual movie goers and those outside the fan base. Which is a major point here. The whole gross is based on it's fan base. You would not find that many 40+ olds in 99 rushing out see The Phantom Menace. Almost no one entered the movie theater because they thought it looked like a "cool action movie". They entered the theater because they were fans of Star Wars. Think about it, SW is about lightsabres, "The Force", talking robots, spaceships, Jedi and Sith etc. It's the ultimate nerd blockbuster..

Indy on the other hand, also appeals to non geeks and those who actually never watched an Indy movie before, or just saw a glimpse of it on TV. They are the same target audience that watches James Bond movies, or National Treasure, The Mummy etc. Add the core Indy fanbase on top of that, and ticket inflation in recent years, and suddenly 400M+ does not seem so far fetched at all.

Of course, Indy 4 will need to be actually good, have great WOM and legs etc, and that is where I think it's main strength will be. Keywords: Spielberg contra Jar Jar & midichorians..




As far as franchises goes
I would rank them like this
1 Star Wars
2 Potter
3 LOTR
After that it be close between Batman and Spiderman, probably should throw Pirates in there. Indy really don't have a big fan base.Well, there are two different things to look at here, fan base and franchise. Not the same thing. I agree Star Wars is both the biggest franchise and the biggest fan base. I'd rate James Bond as the second biggest franchise due to unprecedented stamina, but has a much lower fan base compared to LOTR and Harry Potter. LOTR and HP are pretty even match. LOTR has more cultural resonance and more people read the books, but Harry Potter is the bigger movie franchise.

Then after that, I think the field gets muddy real quick, with everything from Batman, Spiderman and Pirates etc. I'd say Indy can easily match the latter field as franchise though, and even comparable with fan base. Remember, Pirates did not even have a fan base before the first movie, it was just an amusement ride in a disney park. The fan base was literary created over the span of a summer by word of mouth because the movie was great. I would also bet there are more people who watched an Indy movie than reading spidey comics.




I just can't see how an Indy movie would make more money than the last two Star wars movies, especially when that movie have larger fanbases.I will tell you how.

The last two SW movies suffered from the poor WOM of Phantom Menace. When people talk about the incredible box office success of TPM, they usually don't grasp the full picture: With the huge fanbase of SW, and 20 years of anticipation, it had potential to do so much MORE. It would have knocked socks out of Titanic if it lived up to expectations.

So basically, when we think about the BO of the prequels, it is all about the huge huge fan base, but WOM ruined by TPM, and even to some degree AotC. There is nothing indicating to me Kingdom of the Crystal Skull will suffer the same way, on the contrary. People are getting excited about it again after 20 years, and Spielberg seem to be at his game again, so this should be smash hit. The higher production potential and wider demographics more than compensates for the smaller fan base, IMO.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I should have updated this before but we finally have one 100 million dollar film
Horton Hears a Who $133,628,354

It should top 150 probably make like 160 million. What is sad it is the only film that has really broke out this year. You had a few 80 million dollar films like Cloverfield and probably 21. And that Hannah Montana movie did over 60 which for it is small budget is a huge a hit. So now we have to look forward to the summer. Iron Man and Speed Racer will both kick it off. Iron Man should open huge I think it will make over 70 million and hit 200 easily. Speed Racer could pull it something overr a 100. Then the two big guns come up, Caspian and Indiana Jones. Caspian should make anywhere from 250-300 in the U.S. Indy should make somewhere from 300-350. I think Caspian will beat it WW though, the last Narnia flick broke 500 WW so this one should too, probably take in 850 WW and be #1 WW flick for the Summer. Domestic is between Indy and Batman right now and both should finish in the top 3 for the year. After that, only Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince has a chance at the top 3. Of course Potter should be #1 film WW. OOTP made 940 last summer, I think HBP will make 950-970 because it will get a boost from being in the Winter. My predictions
For the Year Top 10
1 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 340
2 Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince 305
3 Batman The Dark Knight 303
4 Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian 285
5 Wall E 270
6 Tropical Thunder 225 (I think this will be a huge surprise)
7 Iron Man 210
8 Get Smart 202
9 James Bond Quantium of Solace 190
10 High School Musical 3 175 (go ahead and laugh now but I will be right)


WW top 5
1 Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince 965
2 Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian 850
3 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 800
4 Wall E 750
5 James Bond 730

[Crusader]

I think Wall E is the big underdog this year. I think this movie has the potential to beat at least Narnia. But this is just my guts feeling.

The good thing about Wall E is that it does not polarize the audience like your top 4. Nobody hates Pixar and Wall E has no established fanbase with a negative image.

You can't really call Bond an underdog but the "restart" of the series and the well recieved Casino Royal gives the new movie a lot comeback potential.
There will be no "no blond Bond" discussions this year and so this might give this movie a much more positiv appearence in the media. Plus Casino Royal has done well on the DVD/Blue Ray market. You can expect a lot of people that saw Bond on DVD for the first time might be standing in line at the opening day.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Wall E has some huge potential. I could see it finishing 4th for the year behind the big 3 franchise films. As for Bond, I think I gave the sequel and increase over Royale. i think that made 160 so a 30 million increase sounds about right. It should also do great overseas making over 500. As for anything else there could be other surprises right now I am predicting just Tropical Thunder to shock but that is because it has big star power (Stiller, Black and Downey Jr). I think something like It's Happening could break out if the film is on par with the earlier M Night films. You have a few other question films like Sex in the City, The Mummy 3, and Hellboy 2. I have no idea what those three will do. Right now I am thinking Hulk and Hancock will be the big disappointments of the summer. Both trailers did nothing for me.

[Yog]

Those look like pretty good predictions, Carr. I would raise the number on Indy 4 for reasons I explained before, and I think Wall-E is a potential Dark Horse, James Bond should do a bit over 200M, but other than that I think it looks good. Oh yeah, and I smell Caspian doing worse than expected, but that is just a feeling I have. I like your predictions overall.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Those look like pretty good predictions, Carr. I would raise the number on Indy 4 for reasons I explained before, and I think Wall-E is a potential Dark Horse, James Bond should do a bit over 200M, but other than that I think it looks good. Oh yeah, and I smell Caspian doing worse than expected, but that is just a feeling I have. I like your predictions overall.

heh thanks, I guess you see I changed my Batman prediction. I thought about it and I made that prediction as a fan it be like me saying Potter would do 400 million when I knew it wouldn't. I am not sure about Caspian, I think it will do a little less than the first movie but it will make more overseas mainly because of the dollar has been so devalued over there.

[Crusader]

I think Caspian will suck overseas in most countries except Britain. Narnia delivered the promise to be a placebo for the LOTR but it could not live up to it. I think it might do as much as Golden Compass or even less. The fantasy bonus does not work anymore.
And I do not think that the religion factor works for most oversea countries.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think Caspian will suck overseas in most countries except Britain. Narnia delivered the promise to be a placebo for the LOTR but it could not live up to it. I think it might do as much as Golden Compass or even less. The fantasy bonus does not work anymore.
And I do not think that the religion factor works for most oversea countries.

I am not sure about that. The first film did poor in Japan but did great in places like Europe. Also it could sell less tickets and still make more money overseas because the dollar is so bad right now. Pirates 3 sold less tickets than Pirates 2 and it make more for example.

[Cat X]

Yeah Wall E has some huge potential. I could see it finishing 4th for the year behind the big 3 franchise films.



Wall-E has got big hit written all over it - if movie goers can accept the apparent lack of dialogue the movie has. If it connects, it's going to be as big as Finding Nemo or bigger.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah Wall E has some huge potential. I could see it finishing 4th for the year behind the big 3 franchise films.



Wall-E has got big hit written all over it - if movie goers can accept the apparent lack of dialogue the movie has. If it connects, it's going to be as big as Finding Nemo or bigger.

I could see it being a huge shock right that, especially since there isn't much original films this summer.

[Crusader]

Wall E is so cute in his own way that he really might be the new Nemo. He looks like the son of R2D2 and Number 5.

Thanks for pointing out the low dollar factor JMC. I was just thinking in ticket sales not in actual money.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I bring this up because I was reading on another board about the weak dollar. The dollar has drop another 15% from last year so here would be 2007 totals if they were released in the current currency exchange rates.


1 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $749.34
2 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $743.48
3 Spider-Man 3 $637.45
4 Shrek the Third $547.63
5 Transformers $446.66
6 Ratatouille $477.25
7 I Am Legend $376.74
8 The Simpsons Movie $395.14
9 300 $282.33
10 National Treasure: Book of Secrets $271.86

That is nearly 100 million dollar difference for some movies. So, the overseas numbers could be huge for Narnia, and Indy this summer and not to mention Half Blood Prince. Both Indy and Narnia could break 600 million and Potter could make 700-750 and probably be the fourth film to break the billion barrier. Also if this keeps up I think it is a matter of time before Titantic's overseas and WW totals eventually go down.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Should put Iron Man on here now
1 Iron Man $177,825,024
2 Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $150,699,120

Narnia and Indy should join this list very soon and both could past Iron Man pretty fast.

[Yog]

Only 2 100M so far? Oh dear. This should change real fast with the summer season started though.

[Crusader]

I don't think so: Too many people are occupied with playing GTA4 right now! Hell we should make predictions about videogame sales one day. Predicting where GTA4 will land at the end of this year would be fun.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Only 2 100M so far? Oh dear. This should change real fast with the summer season started though.

Well there are like 4 films that made 80-90 million during the spring. Only one film could get over that hump of 100 million. Narnia should make this list sometime next week, depending how high it opens.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Iron Man is still #1. I think it should be an interesting race for the #1 film of the year.

1 Iron Man $289,741,611
2 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $255,249,616
3 Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $153,049,976
4 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $126,680,764
5 Sex and the City $101,795,707

Both Kung Fu Panda and Zohan should join this list quickly. After that we will have to see how the Hulk and Get Smart do. As for the #1 battle right now it is between Iron Man and Indy although The Dark Knight and Wall E will enter the picture later in the summer. I don't see Indy making more than 320 but it could do as little as 305 right now. It is performing similar to AWE's right now (dropping at similar %). I think it depends how bad the Hulk, Get Smart and Wall E eat into it's gross in the coming three weeks. If it performs at the lower end it really opens up #1 battle. Iron man has a shot because it will make 305-310. TDK could do anywhere from 275-330 to me. Wall E is even harder to predict because it could do as low as 230 and could approach Nemo's 340 number. If all of these films fail to do the high end than the #1 battle could even be Potter's to take since it should make anywhere from 295-310. Should be an interesting battle.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Iron Man $305,369,088
2 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $291,988,244
3 Kung Fu Panda $158,861,401
4 Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $153,666,176
5 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $135,823,118
6 Sex and the City $133,384,037


The Hulk will make it tomorrow. Zohan might limp there (it needs another 14 million). Get Smart should be able to make it too. The big question is what will be #1. Indy and Iron Man look to finish around 310-320. If nothing can beat that we will have the lowest grossing #1 films since Harry Potter which did 321 back in 2001 but that was right around the time ticket prices starting skyrocketing. I really think something will break out and do at least 330-340. Here are probably the only three films left this year that could even do it.

The Dark Knight: The Buzz is really high on this film. The online signs are feeling like it did back when DMC opened a few years ago. I could see this thing opening to like 100-120 million or who knows higher. Of course it is going to be front loaded but if can open to 120 million it has a shot at passing Indy and Iron Man. It has a weak slate of films after it with the Mummy 3 being the next big film. Also I have a feeling Hancock is going to open big and have horrible legs so that will definitely help it. Right now this is my choice. I think it will open to 110-125 and go on to make 340.

Wall-E: This is a wild card. It is hard to guess the buzz because you don't the number of kids that will turn up. With just the Pixar geeks and enough kids you got a 50-55 million. If it becomes the family event of the summer though it could open to Nemo levels like 75-80. This should have great legs and it could go on and make 340-350 if it opened that high. Right now I see it making 65-70 million and making 280-300.

Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince: Okay this one is the least likely. Honestly, the highest I could see it going is like 320 and everything would have to go perfect for it. Now the fan base is large enough to get 300-310 on its own. It is back in November where they have done the best. And finally, it has a week slate after it. Madagascar 2 and James Bond open two weeks before it but Bond really isn't going to take anything away and Mad 2 I think won't do that well. There is nothing after it until the second week of December and that is the Day the Earth Stood Still, which could bomb (Sci-fi in Winter just feels wrong). Now the problem is it would have to make 320 and not have Batman or Wall-E break out. And I don't think any Potter film will be #1 again until the last one in May 2011 (that one could do Revenge of the Sith numbers). Now one thing Potter will be #1 WW and overseas. I see it make 950-980 WW with 300-310 coming from the U.S. Nothing is making a billion this year so Potter is safe on that front.

[Liam Jinn]

What is DMC?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Sorry Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Man's Chest

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Iron Man $309,516,225
2 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $300,819,519
3 Kung Fu Panda $181,077,324
4 Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $153,666,176
5 Sex and the City $140,796,667
6 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $137,822,712
7 The Incredible Hulk $117,182,335

Hulk has now made the list. Get Smart, Wall E, and Wanted all should be on here soon. Hancock will probably be on here after this weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Iron Man $311,708,133
2 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $306,428,521
3 Kung Fu Panda $193,221,867
4 Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,044,595
5 Sex and the City $144,891,325
6 The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $138,762,746
7 Wall E $127,196,028
8 The Incredible Hulk $124,841,395
9 Hancock $103,877,446

I think its 50-50 if Hancock makes 200 million. It is having horrible WOM. Wall E isn't doing as well as I had thought. I think it will make 250 but beyond that it will finish 5th for the year. The Dark Knight and Harry Potter both will pass it. I really should have went with my gut and predicted The Dark Knight coming out on top. I think it will make 320-340 now and will be the #1 movie of the year.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Iron Man $314,376,968
2 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $312,569,461
3 Kung Fu Panda $206,616,381
4. Hancock $191,543,979
5.Wall E $182,732,709
6. The Dark Knight $158,411,483
7. Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,300,828
8. Sex and the City $149,870,455
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $139,640,838
10. The Incredible Hulk $131,767,165
11. Wanted $123,322,635
12 Get Smart $119,608,695

A lot of new movies made it the last two weeks. The Dark Knight being the huge change. It made this list really on Saturday. It will easily be the #1 movie of the year. The question now is what finishes second. Indy looks like it has the upper hands unless Potter really exceeds expectations.

[CMJ]

We'll see, Iron Man has had better legs over the course of it's run - Crystal Skull may not catch it. If it does, the two won't be seperated by more than 2 million bucks.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Like you said, I think the difference will be very close between the two.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its been a while since I updated this
1. The Dark Knight $505,954,123
2. Iron Man $317,869,143
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $315,898,859
4. Hancock $227,381,199
5.Wall E $218,577,395
6. Kung Fu Panda $213,816,074
7. Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,529,187
8. Sex and the City $152,540,581
9. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $141,614,023
10. The Incredible Hulk $134,528,880
11. Wanted $134,040,510
12. Mamma Mia $133,211,120
13. Get Smart $128,481,759

Tropical Thunder, Step Brothers, and The Mummy 3 will all join this list soon. It will be close for Zohan and Journey to the Center of the Earth. That would be it for the summer. The only films guaranteed for the winter I feel is Quantum of Solace, Madagascar 2, High School Musical 3, and Bedtime stories. I think Twilight, Four Christmases, Bolt, The Day the Earth Stood still, Yes Men, and Marley and Me are all possibilities as well. I think either Bedtime stories or Quantum of solace will win.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1. The Dark Knight $530,732,032
2. Iron Man $318,313,199
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $317,023,851
4. Hancock $227,946,274
5.Wall E $223,749,872
6. Kung Fu Panda $215,434,591
7. Madagascar Escape 2 Africa $170,125,401
8. Quantum of Solace $157,945,719
9. Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,529,187
10. Sex and the City $152,647,258
11. Twilight $150,758,754
12. Mamma Mia $143,762,955
13. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $141,621,490
14. The Incredible Hulk $134,533,885
15. Wanted $134,327,125
16. Get Smart $130,319,208
17. Tropic Thunder $110,461,307
18. The Mummy 3 $102,277,510
19 Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D $101,704,370
20 Eagle Eye $100,660,387
21 Step Brothers $100,468,793
22 You don't Mess with the Zohan $100,018,837

I should have updated this earlier but been very busy. a lot of new movies now. I can't believe Twilight might pass Quantum. Bolt and 4 Christmases should go above 100 next. Day the Earth Stood Still bombed. I think Yes Man, Seven Pounds, Bedtime Stories, Marley and Me, and Benjamin Burton all have chances at the century mark.

[Crusader]

I hoped that Wall E would have some longer legs. Talking about animation: 4 of the Top 10 movies are animation movies this year! The best of these movies does not even have a stellar voice actor cast.
It will be intresting to see if this development will go on in the years to come.
Maybe one day Buzz Lightyear or Wall-E will get the best acter academy award.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Wouldn't that have to be best voice actor? :p

[Jedi Master Carr]

Since the other thread was unfortunetly closed going to use this one for a dual purpose, so put your top 10 films here if you would like. For me I only have a top 5 right now
1 The Dark Knight
2 Wall E
3 Iron Man
4 Tropic Thunder
5 The Bucket List

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Since the other thread was unfortunetly closed going to use this one for a dual purpose, so put your top 10 films here if you would like. For me I only have a top 5 right now
1 The Dark Knight
2 Wall E
3 Iron Man
4 Tropic Thunder
5 The Bucket List

I'd like to know where the "swear" filter was bypassed in that thread because I read it twice and didnt see it anywhere. The only thing it could have been is a very obvious joke about shakey cam and what it does to the viewer. And that was plainly a joke so WTF?

[Liam Jinn]

Took me a few times reading through it and I think it was because of the last line in the first post.

[CMJ]

Yep, you got it Liam.

I'm sure the rest of management would prefer to keep my objections private, so we'll just leave it at that.

[Yog]

Took a few read throughs to find it for me as well, but then again, I am not word police reading posts with a magnifying glass. I always thought people should be allowed to express themselves as they wish, as long as it is not inflammatory. If I am allowed to think that.


I've not ranked my favorite movies yet, so here are 10 favorites of mine in no specific order:

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Milk
- Let the Right One In
- The Dark Knight
- Iron Man
- Gran Torino
- Burn After Reading
- Slumdog Millionaire
- Frost/Nixon
- Wall-E

[Jedi Master Carr]

Took a few read throughs to find it for me as well, but then again, I am not word police reading posts with a magnifying glass. I always thought people should be allowed to express themselves as they wish, as long as it is not inflammatory. If I am allowed to think that.


I've not ranked my favorite movies yet, so here are 10 favorites of mine in no specific order:

- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
- Milk
- Let the Right One In
- The Dark Knight
- Iron Man
- Gran Torino
- Burn After Reading
- Slumdog Millionaire
- Frost/Nixon
- Wall-E

You see most of those movies I want to see badly, especially Frost/Nixon and Milk. I have to wait till they expand. I should go check out Button as well soon.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I'm sure the staff appreciates how you feel, guys, but the rules are what the rules have been, and by posting here in the first place you are agreeing to abide by them, such as they are. This has not changed, and will not change.

[CMJ]

As usual, Yog and I have many of the same films. And I still need to have some he has on there, so they may be even more alike soon. :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

1. The Dark Knight $531,027,799
2. Iron Man $318,412,101
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $317,101,119
4. Hancock $227,946,274
5.Wall E $223,808,164
6. Kung Fu Panda $215,434,591
7. Twilight $184,575,000
8. Madagascar Escape 2 Africa $178,267,000
9. Quantum of Solace $167,535,553
10. Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,529,187
11. Sex and the City $152,647,258
12. Mamma Mia $144,130,063
13. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $141,621,490
14. The Incredible Hulk $134,806,913
15. Wanted $134,508,551
16. Marley and Me $133,859,000
17. Get Smart $130,319,208
18. Four Christmases $119,664,000
19. Bolt $112,091,984
20. Tropic Thunder $110,515,313
21. Bedtime Stories $104,989,000
22. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button $103,628,000
23. The Mummy 3 $102,491,776
24. Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D $101,704,370
25. Eagle Eye $101,440,743
26. Step Brothers $100,468,793
27. You don't Mess with the Zohan $100,018,837

Several new films, Marley and Me should get over 150 and could make the top 10. Benjamin Button could too if it wins big Oscar night. I still can't believe Twilight it is the #1 movie post Labor Day (although that happened because Harry Potter moved). Gran Turino and Slumdog Millionaire both should past 100 million and that will set a record for most 100 million dollar films.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1. The Dark Knight $533,345,358
2. Iron Man $318,412,101
3. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull $317,101,119
4. Hancock $227,946,274
5.Wall E $223,808,164
6. Kung Fu Panda $215,434,591
7. Twilight $190,341,818
8. Madagascar Escape 2 Africa $180,010,950
9. Quantum of Solace $168,368,427
10. Dr. Seuss's Horton Hears a Who $154,529,187
11. Sex and the City $152,647,258
12. Marley and Me $142,085,405
13. Mamma Mia $144,130,063
14. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian $141,621,490
15. Gran Tornio $140,131,000
16. The Incredible Hulk $134,806,913
17.Wanted $134,508,551
18. Get Smart $130,319,208
19. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button $125,661,898
20. Slumdog Millionaire $120,491,000
21. Four Christmases $120,146,040
22. Bolt $114,053,579
23. Tropic Thunder $110,515,313
24. Bedtime Stories $109,625,302
25. The Mummy 3 $102,491,776
26.Journey to the Center of the Earth 3D $101,704,370
27. Eagle Eye $101,440,743
28. Step Brothers $100,468,793
29. You don't Mess with the Zohan $100,018,837

I had to add Slumdog and Gran Torino. Slumdog should make the top 10 maybe get as high as 175 million. Yes Man is the only other film that is close, but it needs like 2.7 million so I don't think it gets there.