Tropical Depression Six

[Park Kraken]

Has just formed east of the Winward Islands. Long term track forecasts indicate this system could follow a similar path to that of Dean, except intensity forecasts are a little lower that, bring the system up to a medium Cat. 1 hurricane of 85 mph by the time it is forecasted to hit Belize.

But long term forecasting models and intensity forecasts are always uncertain, so this system could go anywhere and be at any strength in five days.

So this thread is to keep everyone updated on the progress of this storm system.

[Park Kraken]

On update on what used to be known as Tropical Depression Six, but is now Hurricane Felix.

Hurricane Felix is now a Category 2 hurricane with top winds of 100 mph, just to the north of the South American coastline in the south central Caribbean. The storm is expected to make landfall in a few days in Belize as a major hurricane, before turning northwest through the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico.

It looks like this storm could be a threat to Texas in the long run, from rain alone if nothing else. The only good news so far is that the storm is relativley small and compact.

[Park Kraken]

Here is the latest water vapor imagery of the storm showing how well defined it is. The storm has expanded a little bit and is now a category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds. It is forecasted to become a Category 4, but I wouldn't be suprised if it became a Category 5 like Dean.

Long term forecast tracks still show that this storm could be a threat to Texas in the long run.

[CMJ]

I really don't see a Texas landfall being very likely. Should track south of Dean.

[Park Kraken]

Well the thing is, a lot of the forecasting models are saying that the high pressure ridge, which forced Dean and is currently forcing Felix on a more southward track, will erode by days four and five, allowing Felix to take a turn torwards the north.

Now I don't think the storm will necessarily make landfall on the Texas coast, but it's remains will pose a significant rain threat to south and central Texas, IMO.

BTW, the satellite imagery of the storm continues to improve. I wouldn't be suprised if Felix was already a Category 5.

[Morgan Evanar]

Poor Yucatan :(

[CMJ]

At his current rate of speed I think Texas should be safe even when the high erodes. I do agree it appears he's likely a STRONG Category 4, if not 5 at this point. Not sure when the new recon info is coming in.

[CMJ]

The latest recon flight was aborted midway thru due to extreme turbulence.

Holy crap, never seen that in the recon reports before.

[CMJ]

A great 36 hour satellite loop. You can see Felix go from a Tropical Storm to a Cat 5.

http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?banner=uhmet&chnl=uw4&domain=crb&size=large&period=2160&incr=30&rr=900&satplat=goes12&overlay=off

[CMJ]

Here is a nice snapshot....

http://stormcarib.com/felix_2007/felix_nrlmry20070902_big.jpg

[Yog]

Wow, what a monster. It sure grew fast.

[CMJ]

From inside the eye right before landfall.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/wximagenew/l/LRandyB/162.jpg

[Wei Wu Wei]

Wow, that's an impressive image. That's a bit frightening.

[Park Kraken]

Hurricane Felix made landfall this morning as a Category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph and a central pressure of 935 millibars.

As of the latest advisory issued at 2PM eastern time, the hurricane is now a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds, and is expected to dissipate within the next 48 hours as it moves over extremly mountianous terrain.

And by dissipate, I mean the circulation of the storm. But it is again, not so much the winds as the rain that is a serious threat here. This storm could easily become another big killer like Hurricane Mitch was back in 1998.

[CMJ]

I'm still quite amazed Felix was a Cat 5 with that pressure. Sort of like the anti-Katrina(and I still don't truly buy she was only a 3 at 920mbs)Sometimes the Categories and pressure intenisites really don't match up.

[Park Kraken]

Hurricane Humberto just made landfall on the Texas coastline early this morning at 200AM with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph, which suprised me since it was supposed to make landfall at Tropical Storm strength.

The good news with this system is that a lot of the dry areas that need rain will probably get it with this system.

[CMJ]

From the NHC discussion.


BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT
DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS
MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL
RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR
LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.



LMAO....classic line. :) You so rarely get them to admit confusion or surprise like that.

[Jaime Tomahawk]

Imagine if Humerto had a bit more time over water. Or be glad it didnt I suppose....

The tropical depression east of Porto Rico tho.... that one could be one Florida has to watch.