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Jedi Master Carr
Jul 22nd, 2007, 09:50:01 PM
I won't be around till Thursday. I am going to Florida for a few days. I figured I better post this to get it up. I will let Yog post the new movies and stuff later.

Yog
Jul 26th, 2007, 12:59:04 AM
Theater counts new releases

The Simpsons Movie 3,922
No Reservations 2,425
I Know Who Killed Me 1,200+
Who's Your Caddy 1,019

Last weekend top 5
1. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $34,233,750
2. Order of the Phoenix: $32,511,350
3. Hairspray: $27,476,745
4. Transformers: $20,514,497
5. Ratatouille: $10,899,179

Simpson should take the top spot easily, and No Reservations has a good chance at the top 5. The other two openers have too low theater counts for that.



Weekend Overview

<img src=http://mneh.org/pics/bo/openers/simpsons1.jpg>
The Simpsons Movie - doh!

Theaters: 3,922
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/fox/thesimpsonsmovie/>Trailers</a>
<a href=http://www.simpsonsmovie.com/>Official Site</a>
<a href=http://imdb.com/title/tt0462538/> IMDB (9.0) Top 250: #122</a>
<a href=http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/simpsons_movie/> Rotten Tomatoes 75% </a>
Studio: 20th century Fox
Genre: Animation, TV-Show, Comedy, Parody
Runtime: 1 hrs. 27 min.
MPAA: PG-13

Description
One of the most popular animated TV shows of all time hit the big screen.

Director - David Silverman: The Simpsons TV Series, Monsters Inc, The Road to El Dorado

Cast (Voices) Dan Castellaneta, Julie Kavner, Nancy Cartwright, Yeardley Smith, Harry Shearer, Hank Azaria, Tress MacNeille, Pamela Hayden + the rest of the cast from the show.

Plot synopsis
It takes a wide screen to fully capture Homer Simpson's stupidity, and THE SIMPSONS MOVIE does it. In the eagerly awaited animation feature film based on the hit TV series, Homer must save the world from a catastrophe he himself created.




<img src=http://mneh.org/pics/bo/openers/noreservations1.jpg>
No Reservations - Life is not always made to order

Theaters: 2,425
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/noreservations/>Trailer</a>
<a href=http://noreservationsmovie.warnerbros.com/>Official Site</a>
<a href=http://imdb.com/title/tt0481141/> IMDB</a>
<a href=http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/no_reservations/>Rotten Tomatoes</a>
Studio: Warner Bros
Genre: Romance, Comedy, Drama, Cooking
Runtime: 103 min
MPAA: Rated PG for some sensuality and language.

Description: Romantic comedy with Catherine Zeta-Jones. Essentially a remake of Sandra Nettelbeck's Mostly Martha.

Director - Scott Hicks: Hearts in Atlantis, Snow Falling on Cedars, Shine, The Space Shuttle, Submarines: Sharks of Steel, Call Me Mr. Brown, Sebastian and the Sparrow, Freedom, Down the Wind

Cast: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Aaron Eckhart, Abigail Breslin, Patricia Clarkson

Plot synopsis
Master chef Kate Armstrong (Academy Award winner Catherine Zeta-Jones) lives her life like she runs her kitchen at a trendy Manhattan eatery—with a no-nonsense intensity that both captivates and intimidates everyone around her. Kate’s perfectionist nature is put to the test when she “inherits” her nine-year-old niece Zoe (Abigail Breslin), while contending with a brash new sous-chef who joins her staff. High-spirited and freewheeling, Nick Palmer (Aaron Eckhart) couldn’t be more different from Kate, yet the chemistry between them is undeniable.




In the outer rim:
- I Know Who Killed Me (1,200+) <a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/iknowwhokilledme/>Trailer</a>
Plot summary:
Aubrey Fleming is a regular high school student with friends and family. One night, she unexpectedly disappears. Two weeks later she is found unconscious in the middle of the woods. When spoken to, her loved ones realize she has forgotten her identity and the personality living in her body is Dakota Moss, a character that Aubrey created in one of her stories for an English assignment. Dakota denies ever being Aubrey knowing that they look identical. Now, Dakota must try to unravel the mystery of how her and Aubrey co-exist and find out who abducted Aubrey that night.



- Who's Your Caddy (1,019) <a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/weinstein/whosyourcaddy/>Trailer</a>
Plot (studio description)
A hilarious, fish-out-of-water comedy about superstar rap mogul, C-Note (Big Boi), who runs into fierce opposition when he tries to join the super stuffy Carolina Pines Golf & Country Club. Undeterred, C-Note gets the brilliant idea to buy the land adjacent to the golf club’s 17th hole, which he cleverly leverages to gain membership. C-Note’s crew wreaks havoc as they bring their larger-than-life style to the club. As the club’s hoighty-toighty leadership desperately tries to revoke C-Note’s membership, our hero realizes that his family’s honor - and secret record-breaking golf history - is at stake. As he takes on the fight of his life, C-Note pulls out all the stops to bring down the club’s backwards establishment and welcome them to the 21st century


Weekend Analysis

The Simpsons is a highly anticipated movie opening super wide in 3,922 theaters. Unless you have been living under a rock, you have no doubt seen the trailers, which btw look very funny. The marketing is going strong with frequent trailer adds on TV and in front of most movie releases. As far as recognizability and strength of TV franchise, it is hard to top The Simpsons, running for 18 seasons over 20 years and winning 23 Emmys. The characters are cultural icons, and the show itself has a wide fan base. The show appeals to all kinds of demographics, from teenagers to 40 year olds. The Simpsons should very easily make the top spot, and gross around 40-60M over the weekend.

No reservations is likely to crack the top 5. Catherine Zeta-Jones still has some box office draw, and the trailer looks decent enough for the couples and female audience it is being targetted at. Look for a gross in the 10-16M range.

Hairspray opened strong last weekend, and as a well received musical should hold well this week. Look for it to hold on to the #2 spot, with a gross in the 15-19M range.

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix had a somewhat disappointingly steep drop last weekend, and seems to continue the decline with another 50% drop. It could make around 14-17M over the weekend.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry has poor word of mouth, and may have a +55% drop, which makes for around 13-15M.

Transformers continues its race to 300M, with about 9-12M over the weekend.


Weekend Projections
1. The Simpsons Movie: 40-60M
2. Hairspray: 15-19M
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: 14-17M
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: 13-15M
5. No Reservations: 10-16M

Outsiders
6. Transformers: 9-12M
I Know Who Killed Me: Less than 5M
Who's Your Caddy: Less than 5M

Yog
Jul 26th, 2007, 03:22:58 AM
I will start with some early predictions (may be adjusted before the weekend)

1. The Simpsons Movie: $58.97M
2. Hairspray: $19.11M
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $15.17M
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $13.72M
5. No Reservations: $12.55M

Jedieb
Jul 26th, 2007, 06:03:09 AM
I'll be on time this week!

1. The Simpsons Movie: $56.987654321M
2. Hairspray: $21.987654321M
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $16.123456789M
4. No Reservations: $12.2345678855M
5. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $11.9875641272M

Bart: Dad, you just shot the zombie Flanders!
Homer: He was a zombie?

Jedi Master Carr
Jul 26th, 2007, 08:07:36 PM
Thank you Yog for putting that up. I will make my picks tomorrow. I think the order you posted is probably right. Chuck and Larry is dropping like a rock with the dailies. I think it will drop 55-60% this weekend which will be worse than what OOTP will drop. That will probably drop around 50%, I think.

CMJ
Jul 26th, 2007, 08:36:13 PM
1. The Simpsons Movie - 52.52M
2. Hairspray - 17.70M
3. Order of the Phoenix - 16.52M
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry - 16.42
5. No Reservation - 12.27M

sirdizzy
Jul 27th, 2007, 12:36:00 PM
1. The Simpsons Movie: $50.11
2. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $18.22
3. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $15.23
4. Hairspray: $14.89
5. No Reservations: $9.55

Jedi Master Carr
Jul 27th, 2007, 04:41:27 PM
1 The Simpsons 56.45
2 Hairspray 18.11
3 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 17.10
4 I now Pronounce you Chuck and Larry 14.87
5 Transformers 10.44

Lilaena De'Ville
Jul 27th, 2007, 04:50:22 PM
1. The Simpsons Movie - $51.99
2. Hairspray - $17.00
3. Order of the Phoenix - $15.45
4. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry - $14.21
5. No Reservation - $13.78

Yog
Jul 28th, 2007, 11:12:42 AM
Friday estimates
1. Simpsons Movie, The: $29.41M
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $6.08M
3. Hairspray: $5.11M
4. Order of the Phoenix: $4.98M
5. No Reservations: $4.01M

HUGE opening for Simpsons! I think we can make reservations on the release calendar for the sequel already. No Reservations seems to do expected numbers. I am disappointed in Chuck and Larry beating out Hairspray. It makes me lose faith in mankind a little bit.

Jedi Master Carr
Jul 28th, 2007, 04:16:24 PM
Friday estimates
1. Simpsons Movie, The: $29.41M
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $6.08M
3. Hairspray: $5.11M
4. Order of the Phoenix: $4.98M
5. No Reservations: $4.01M

HUGE opening for Simpsons! I think we can make reservations on the release calendar for the sequel already. No Reservations seems to do expected numbers. I am disappointed in Chuck and Larry beating out Hairspray. It makes me lose faith in mankind a little bit.

I am disapointed with that too. I though Chuck and Larry would drop big time. Potter will probably finish third mainly because it will have a better weekend multiplier than Hairspray. Still I thought Hairspray would hold up better than it did. Maybe everybody who wanted to see it rushed out to it.

Jedi Master Carr
Jul 30th, 2007, 09:24:34 PM
Oh I am not sure what to do about Dizzy's scores? Should I count them or not? If I do count them it won't really matter because he doesn't have a chance of winning anyway.

Lilaena De'Ville
Jul 30th, 2007, 10:30:11 PM
Guess its up to you :)

Jedi Master Carr
Jul 31st, 2007, 04:49:16 PM
Heh that makes it easy :p Dizzy didn't do that well so it probably doesn't matter anyway.

Jedi Master Carr
Jul 31st, 2007, 05:36:46 PM
I changed my mind about Dizzy's gross. I am going to take him out for this weekend. I will let him keep his points from before this weekend though. If he wasn't banned this wouldn't be an issue. I am mainly doing this to make the ending of the contest more competive.

Weekend Actuals
1 THE SIMPSONS MOVIE 74.04
2 I NOW PRONOUNCE YOU CHUCK... 19.13
3 HARRY POTTER ORDER OF PHOENIX 17.73
4 HAIRSPRAY 15.90
5 NO RESERVATIONS 11.70

Accuracy Points
# 1 - 25 pts: Yog (The Simpsons)
# 2 - 20 pts: CMJ (Chuck and Larry)
# 3 - 15 pts: Jedi Master Carr (Order of the Phoenix)
# 4 - 10 pts: Lilaena De'Ville (Hairspray)
# 5 - 5 pts: Jedieb (No Reservations)

Weekend Points
Yog 40
CMJ 35
Jedi Master Carr 25
Lilaena De'Ville 25
Sir Dizzy 10
Jedieb 15


Season Totals
CMJ: 560
Lilaena De'Ville: 530
Jedi Master Carr: 495
Yog: 385
SirDizzy: 335
Ryan Pode: 280
Jedieb: 220
Hera: 165
Kaast Dulli: 85
JMK: 75

If anybody sees any points wrong let me know.