Summer 2007 Box office Contest Week 11 Harry Potter Weekend, OOTP's due by Wed 9PMPST

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going to go ahead and start this up since you are going to need to post Harry's numbers by Wed. Order of the Phoenix will be a Five day number. The rest of the top 5 will just be 3 day. You can post your OOTP number first and post the rest of the top 5 later if you like. I will do a write up for the Big New Release in a few minutes.

Last weekend's numbers 3 Day only since the 6 days don't matter here
1. Transformers - 70.50
2. Ratatouille - 29.01
3. Live Free or Die Hard - 17.73
4. License to Wed - 10.42
5. Evan Almighty - 8.72

[Jedi Master Carr]

New Releases
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
<img src="http://uploader.chipszone.net/userfiles/638/harry potter/rebellion.jpg" alt="rebellion.jpg" />
Harry Potter is due to start his fifth year at Hogwarts. He is desperate to get back to school to find out why his friends Ron and Hermione have been so secretive all summer. However, what Harry is about to discover in his new year at Hogwarts will turn his world upside down...

When a malicious Ministry of Magic employee takes the "cursed" Defense Against the Dark Arts position, she uses it as a point from which to usurp power away from Dumbledore. Harry engages in a personal battle with her while dreaming of a strange door at the end of a corridor which hides something that Voldemort wants desperately. To top it all off, Harry and friends must take their very difficult, very life-changing fifth-year tests: the OWL exams.

Trailers
http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1808475612/trailer

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am posting My Potter prediction now in case I forget tomorrow, might edit though.
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 157.77

[Lilaena De'Ville]

1. OotP - 159.87
2. Transformers - 58.99
3. Ratatouille - 18.55
4. Live Free or DIE HARD - 13.45
5. License to Wed - 5.62

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know if I should try topping that or not :p I honestly thought I would have the highest guess for Potter. Also if Tranformers drops that well that would make next weekend the biggest probably ever.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Well I won't be around to use other people's guesses to hone mine so I just went with it. No mocking of my estimates!

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I won't be around to use other people's guesses to hone mine so I just went with it. No mocking of my estimates!

Heh I am not really mocking. I was more shocked because somebody picked higher than me, although who knows it might be possible. I am reading sellouts for the movie at midnight and the movie is selling out shows left and right. At the rate it is going it is possible that Revenge of the Sith's midnight record could fall. OOTP will do the second best ever for sure.

[Jedieb]

1. OotP - 167.987654321
2. Transformers - 62.987654321
3. Ratatouille - 21.987654321
4. Live Free or DIE HARD - 15.987654321
5. License to Wed - 4.523678941

[CMJ]

With the high predictions by everyone else I must've read your post wrong. It's only HP that is 5 day....correct? Everyone seems to be going way too high on the others.

1. Order of the Phoenix - 136.09M
2. Transformers - 35.23M
3. Ratatouille - 17.44M
4. Live Free or Die Hard -10.20M
5. License to Wed - 6.08M

[sirdizzy]

1. OotP - 170.11

[Yog]

Yes, it is 5 days for Harry Potter, and 3 days for anything else. Some of these predictions are way too high, with drops less than 20%, which is very unlikely. You can all change your #2-5 picks later though, as long as you don't edit your original post, rather make a new post with updated 2-5 picks.

Here is my Harry Potter prediction..

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $145.39M (5-day)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Only Harry is 5 days. Like Yog said just resubmit your other picks and you will be fine. Also the Potter predictions are all over the map and I don't even have the highest pick :p I would love to see Dizzy right just because that 5 day would be awesome. I think 145-155 is more likely though.

[Ryan Pode]

1. Order of the Phoenix - 165,420,102
2. Transformers - 39,201,000
3. Ratatouille - 14,505,029
4. Live Free or Die Hard -12,304,995
5. License to Wed - 7,110,821

[Yog]

According to SBD, Harry Potter made 44,755,000 on wednesday. That is a great number for opening day, IMO. Especially in the middle of the week.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I was hoping for 50 and I admit I was being unrealistic. Spiderman 2 had the record before that and that was the Wed before the 4th. The previous record I think was The Phantom Menance and that was in the mid 30's. I think it still will make 145-155 million for the five days. Should have a decent drop today and could make 80-85 million weekend.

[Yog]

That sounds like a reasonable projection. It will be interesting to see thursday numbers and how well it holds in the days ahead.

On another note, I will be out of town from saturday to next sunday, so I am not sure if I will have time to check in monday. If you could calculate the point results for this weekend when the actuals are out, it would be cool.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Sure no problem, it shouldn't be that difficult this time.

[sirdizzy]

it wasn't that difficult last time, you just made it difficult

[CMJ]

Huge drop on Thursday. But practically everything really dropped. Kinda crazy.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well the offfical numbers aren't up yet it could still be higher than the 18.5 that one site is predicting. I am still hoping for a 80-85 weekend for it. If it fails to make 145 million in 5 days than I think WB need to put the last Potter film in the Fall. It could be summer is just the wrong time of the year for that franchise.

[CMJ]

I do think HP has shown itself to be a Winter franchise. This just seems to prove it even more.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I do think HP has shown itself to be a Winter franchise. This just seems to prove it even more.

Yeah I think they only put OOTP here because they are planing on the next one to be out in winter of 2008 and they needed to start filming in September. But there is no reason now that they to release the last one in the summer. They need to either get it finished before Nov 2009 or just push it back to Nov 2010.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Here are my other predictions now
2 Transformers 33.22
3 Ratatouille 16.44
4 Live Free or Die Hard 9,78
5 License to Wed 5.89

[sirdizzy]

I wish it were in the winter too, its hot for me to have to wait 3 hours for seats during the summer, its been like 120 all this week, its still over a 100 degrees at 10pm

[sirdizzy]

2 Transformers 35.01
3 Ratatouille 18.66
4 Live Free or Die Hard 10.22
5 License to Wed 4.55

[Jedi Master Carr]

I wish it were in the winter too, its hot for me to have to wait 3 hours for seats during the summer, its been like 120 all this week, its still over a 100 degrees at 10pm

Yikes that is awful here it has been mostly in the upper 90's.

[Yog]

2. Transformers $37.11M
3. Ratatouille $17.73M
4. Live Free or Die Hard $9,35M
5. License to Wed $5.55M

[sirdizzy]

May's not too bad but I still got pretty sun burned for Episode III even though they let us inside at like noon, we slept out for like 32 hours for Revenge of the Sith. We got there about 9:20 for the midnight for Harry Potter and it was still like 105 outside, luckily they didn't move us outside tell about 10:15 when the line go to long in the lobby. The first people in line got there at 11pm the night before. I remember them from Episode III, we were the first people in line we showed up at like 4pm the day before and they showed up at like 10pm and the dad was sleeping in the car came out screaming at everyone at like midnight to be quiet because he had to work the next day.


I wouldn't sleep out for Harry not in July, I don't know if I would sleep out for Star Wars in July not in the 120 degree weather.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Friday Numbers
Harry Potter 5 26,362,000
Transformers 10,847,000
Ratatouille 5,335,000
Live Free or Die Hard 3,173,000
License to Wed 2,350,000
1408 1,701,000
Evan Almighty 1,472,000
Knocked Up 1,250,000
Sicko 718,000
Ocean's 13 562,000

OOTP rebounded actually pretty good. Actually most of the top 5 pretty much did. Harry should do around 140-145 for the five days. I think Yog's prediction is looking too good. Most of us were just being way too unrealistic. Only the final Harry Potter can do those numbers (in part because of inflation). How front loaded it will be is the question. I can see it making 275 right now, beyond that I am not sure. Of course I never thought it make 300.

[CMJ]

I'm still in play for getting Order of the Phoenix. If it hits 140M that's basically halfway between our two projections.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I guess it will depend on the actuals. It could end up closer. We won't know till Monday. I am guessing I am hoping it does because you might be running away with the thing other wise :p

[CMJ]

How's the scoring update look?

[Jedi Master Carr]

heh I am going to do it in a few minutes. I had no time yesterday and I was dead tired last night.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend Actuals

1 Harry Potter & The Order Of The Phoenix $77,108,414 $139.72
2 Transformers $37,027,901 $224.01
3 Ratatouille $18,012,196 $143
4 Live Free Or Die Hard $11,279,135 $103.32
5 License To Wed $7,311,297 $30.38
Only Harry Potter is double
Accuracy Points
# 1 - 50 pts: CMJ (Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix)
# 2 - 20 pts: Yog Carr (Transformers)
# 3 - 15 pts: Yog (Ratatouille)
# 4 - 10 pts: Sir Dizzy (Live Free or Die Hard)
# 5 - 5 pts: Ryan Pode (License to Wed)

Weekend Points
CMJ 75
Yog 60
Sir Dizzy 35
Ryan Pode 30
Jedieb 25
Lilaena De'Ville 25
Jedi Master Carr 25

Season Totals
CMJ: 510
Lilaena De'Ville: 465
Jedi Master Carr: 420
Yog: 325
SirDizzy: 320
Ryan Pode: 280
Jedieb: 205
Hera: 165
Kaast Dulli: 85
JMK: 75

CMJ takes the lead. Since we are at the half way point I am going to take out two of every body's lowest weekends and see how everybody looks. I will post that in a minute.

[CMJ]

Excellent.....

[Jedi Master Carr]

This will give you a rough idea minusing everybodys lowest weekends
Thru 11
Minus 2 weekends
CMJ 485
Lilaena De'Ville 430
JMC 385
Sir Dizzy 315
Yog 310
Ryan Pode 280
Jedieb 205
Hera: 165
Kaast Dulli: 85
JMK: 75

Minus 4 weekends
CMJ 440
Lilaena De'Ville 385
JMC 335
Yog 280
Dizzy 275
Ryan 265
Jedieb 200
Hera: 165
Kaast Dulli: 85
JMK: 75


The order doesn't change much although it moves some people mainly Ryan and Jedieb who missed several weekends closer. I am not sure how much to look at the 4 weekend one because it takes away some decent weekends. I know it did for me. I think this format mainly helps those who miss a couple of weekends or score really bad one weekend, otherwise it doesn't seem to matter much.