Summer 2007 Box office Contest Week 10 4th of July pics due by Tuesday at 9PM PST

[Jedi Master Carr]

I am going to post this early for the 4th. If you want to get your picks in now go ahead. I will probably post movie info tomorrow. Unless Yog beats me to it. Oh we won't count Monday pre shows for Transformers. I didn't count them for Pirates so its only fair to do the same here. So take that into consideration. We will be doing from Tuesday to Sunday just to let you know.

[Yog]

Unless Yog beats me to it.

I will post something for this one.

[CMJ]

I wonder if all the BO sites will actually have 6 day totals for anthing other than Transformers. Yall might have to add the 6th day yourselves.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I think they will have six days for License to Wed because it opens on Tuesday as well, but I am not sure about the rest. I can remember what happened the last time the fourth landed on a Wed like this.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Weekend Top 5
1 Ratatouille $47,027,395
2 Live Free Or Die Hard $33,369,559
3 Evan Almighty $15,140,945
4 1408 $10,662,804
5 Fantastic Four:Rise Of The Silver Surfer $9,143,876

New movies
Transformers
License to Wed.
I promised Yog I will let him write up so more on the new releases but this gets you guys moving.

[Yog]

<img src=http://www.mneh.org/pics/bo/openers/transformers.jpg>
Transformers - more than meets the eye

<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/dreamworks/transformers/>Trailer</a>
<a href=http://www.transformersmovie.com/>Official Site</a>
<a href=http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/transformers_the_movie/>RT</a>
<a href=http://imdb.com/title/tt0418279/>IMDB </a>
Distributor: Paramount (DreamWorks)
Genre: Action / Adventure
Budget: $150 million
Runtime: 144 mins
MPAA Rating: PG-13
Theaters: 4,011

Description: Live action remake of the popular 80's cartoon Transformers.

Director: Michael Bay (Bad Boys 1 & 2, The Rock, Armageddon, Pearl Harbor, The Island)

Producer: Steven Spielberg

Cast: Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox, Josh Duhamel, Tyrese Gibson, Rachael Taylor, Anthony Anderson, Jon Voight, John Turturro, Bernie Mac

Plot synopsis: In 2003, the Beagle Mars Rover was launched. We were told that it crashed. It's final transmission was classified top secret. It was the only warning we were given. Now the dueling alien races of the autobots and the decepticons have brought their battle to Earth and the future of mankind is hanging in the balance. It's their war, but it's our world!

Bottom line: This may be the surprise hit of the summer, as it is far more entertaining than the may blockbusters, and it brings something fresh to the table than just sequels; A contemporary sci-fi war between giant robots which can transform into vehicles and shoot their laser cannons at each other while wrecking cities in the process. And it is based on a very well known franchise from the 80's a lot of people are familiar with or fond of. On the down side, it is a Michael Bay movie, which means thin if not outright illogical plot, and the actors won't win any oscars. On the bright side, it is a Michael Bay movie, which means amazing action packed sequences, ground breaking special effects, explosions, awe inspiring robots, and some funny popcorn dialogue. The robots look uncanny real, and there are even some treats thrown in for the G1 fanbois as well.






<img src=http://www.mneh.org/pics/bo/openers/licensetowed.jpg>
License to Wed - License to fall asleep

<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/licensetowed/>Boring as heck trailer</a>
<a href=http://licensetowedthemovie.warnerbros.com/>Brainwashing marketing</a>
<a href=http://imdb.com/title/tt0762114/>Some IMDB stuff here</a>
<a href=http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/10007597-license_to_wed/>Lots of rotten tomatoes</a>
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Genre: Romantic Comedy (sleep inducing)
Running Time: 1 hour 40 min (if you can sit that long)
Theaters: 2,401 (they should send the prints back)

Director: Ken Kwapis (The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants, Dunston Checks In, The Beautician and the Beast + lots of TV episodes; The Office etc)

Cast: Mandy Moore, Robin Williams, John Krasinski

Description: Some romantic comedy crap. It got an amazing 12% at rotten tomatoes.

Plot stuff: A reverend (Williams) puts an engaged couple (Moore and Krasinski) through a grueling marriage preparation course to see if they are meant to be married in his church.




Weekend Analysis
This weekend is an extended tuesday-sunday double points 6-day week, with 4th of July on wednesday. The major opener as you all know is Transformers, and then a small romantic comedy release.

Transformers
This is the wildcard of the summer, and should get some terrific word of mouth in the days ahead. If people go nuts buying tickets, it may go as high as 150-160M, but that's probably the maximum this week. A more cautious and realistic estimate might be 120-140M for 6 days, which seems to be in line with the current tracking.

License to Wed
The marketing seems very low key, and the trailer so dull its hard to watch. Worst of all, it runs straight against some rather good movies, capturing all kinds of demographics. This is probably way under everyone's radar and should thus tank pretty bad. The only saving grace is Robin Williams and the extended weekend, which may give it between 10-20M over the 6 day frame. Unless it is a total bomb. Feel free to make comedy 5M predictions if you want.


6-day Weekend Projections
1. Transformers: 120-140
2. Ratatuille: 44-57
3. Live Free or Die Hard: 28-35
4. License to Wed: 10-20
5. Evan Almighty: ~15
6. 1408: ~10

(will be updated as I get more data)

[Lilaena De'Ville]

License to Wed looks as bad as Transformers looks good. :x

[Jedi Master Carr]

Not sure why Robin Williams does such bad movies. He has so much talent and he does garbage.

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is such a hard six days to predict
1 Transformers 133.82
2 Ratatouille 55.84
3 Live Free or Die Hard 39.56
4 License to Wed 20.66
5 Evan Almighty 17.22

I think Ratatouille is going to have great legs, well until Harry Potter opens.

[Yog]

6 day predictions:
1. Transformers: $135.13M
2. Ratatuille: $52.67M
3. Live Free or Die Hard: $35.36M
4. Evan Almighty: $15.31M
5. License to Wed: $14.04M

[Jedi Master Carr]

6 day predictions:
1. Transformers: $125.13M
2. Ratatuille: $45.67M
3. Live Free or Die Hard: $30.36M
4. License to Wed: $17.04M
5. Evan Almighty: $15.31M

Heh I am shocked to see your Transformer's prediction lower than me :p I actually raised mine. I tried to calculate drops but I had a hard time doing. It so hard to predict 6 days. I probably need to lower License to Wed since it looks like crap.

[Yog]

Heh I am shocked to see your Transformer's prediction lower than me :p I actually raised mine. I tried to calculate drops but I had a hard time doing. It so hard to predict 6 days. I probably need to lower License to Wed since it looks like crap.

I wanted to pick higher for Transformers. But it's usually a bad idea letting my personal movie preferences influence box office predictions, so I try to adapt with a more pesimistic number.

Oh, and if Licence to Wed makes more than 30M I will be disappointed. I can't imagine people are so stupid when there are so many options.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Heh I am shocked to see your Transformer's prediction lower than me :p I actually raised mine. I tried to calculate drops but I had a hard time doing. It so hard to predict 6 days. I probably need to lower License to Wed since it looks like crap.

I wanted to pick higher for Transformers. But it's usually a bad idea letting my personal movie preferences influence box office predictions, so I try to adapt with a more pesimistic number.

Oh, and if Licence to Wed makes more than 30M I will be disappointed. I can't imagine people are so stupid when there are so many options.

I know what you mean, its going to be tough for me next week picking Potter. I am not sure how I came up with the 39 million number for License. I don't think it can do that high. I think it will be lower 20's max for the six days.

[Yog]

I know what you mean, its going to be tough for me next week picking Potter. I am not sure how I came up with the 39 million number for License. I don't think it can do that high. I think it will be lower 20's max for the six days.

I think HP will open about as strong as the previous movies.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know what you mean, its going to be tough for me next week picking Potter. I am not sure how I came up with the 39 million number for License. I don't think it can do that high. I think it will be lower 20's max for the six days.

I think HP will open about as strong as the previous movies.

Well this is the first time it will be 5 days, so I am not sure what to predict. If it had been 3 I was thinking 110-120. GOF adjusted for inflation would be about 110. Now there is no way its three day will do that. The question is how high can it open on Wed? On Friday it would be 50 for sure but a wed I have no idea.

[Yog]

Well this is the first time it will be 5 days, so I am not sure what to predict. If it had been 3 I was thinking 110-120. GOF adjusted for inflation would be about 110. Now there is no way its three day will do that. The question is how high can it open on Wed? On Friday it would be 50 for sure but a wed I have no idea.

True, 5 days change things a bit. Still some time to think about it though. I will just look at other franchises which went from 3 to 5 day, during the summer months and compare.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Rataoullie was an awesome and hilarious movie, by the by. :D

MY six day predictions -
1. Transformers: $140.11M
2. Ratatuille: $50.11M
3. Live Free or Die Hard: $41.22M
4. License to Wed: $17.33M
5. Evan Almighty: $16.11M

[CMJ]

1. Transformers 142.05M
2. Ratatouille 48.24M
3. Live Free Or Die Hard - 28.86M
4. License to Wed - 15.40M
5. Evan Almighty - 14.77M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Rataoullie was an awesome and hilarious movie, by the by. :D

MY six day predictions -
1. Transformers: $140.11M
2. Ratatuille: $50.11M
3. Live Free or Die Hard: $41.22M
4. License to Wed: $17.33M
5. Evan Almighty: $16.11M

I so want to see it. I might go see it this week.

[Yog]

FYI, Transformers made $8,801,025 on monday. That is the pre-midnight screeners, I think.

And here are the top 5 monday numbers:
1. TRANSFORMERS PARAMOUNT 4,011 8,880,000 2,214 n/a 8,880,000
2. RATATOUILLE BVI 3,940 7,560,000 1,919 n/a 53,945,000
3. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,408 4,205,000 1,234 n/a 52,922,000
4. EVAN ALMIGHTY UNIVERSAL 3,636 2,150,000 591 -45% 62,747,125
5. 1408 MGM 2,733 1,560,000 571 -44% 42,096,034

Might help you some when making predictions :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Mojo has different numbers
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2007-07-02&p=.htm
Don't ask me to copy them heh. That is very good for Ratatouille. Not sure what to make of Transformers. Pirates made almost 14 million from its sneaks if that gives you any idea.

[Yog]

Right now, thinking about 25M on tuesday. Could be higher still though..

Which btw totally crushes Dead Man's Chest tuesday record at 15,7M. Although, that opened the weekend before and Transformers is actually opening that day, so it's not comparable.

[sirdizzy]

1 Transformers 124.99
2 Ratatouille 45.11
3 Live Free or Die Hard 33.75
4 License to Wed 21.01
5 Evan Almighty 17.50

[Ryan Pode]

I hope I'm not too late.

1. Transformers - 159,402,049
2. Ratatouille 44,403,202
3. Live Free Or Die Hard - 23,340,399
4. License to Wed - 10,303,394
5. Evan Almighty - 9,304,800

[Yog]

Tuesday numbers (actuals)

1. TRANSFORMERS PARAMOUNT 4,011 27,450,000 6,844 n/a 36,330,000
2. RATATOUILLE BVI 3,940 7,890,000 2,003 n/a 61,835,000
3. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,408 4,465,000 1,310 n/a 57,387,000
4. LICENSE TO WED WARNER BROS. 2,401 2,210,000 920 n/a 2,210,000
5. EVAN ALMIGHTY UNIVERSAL 3,636 2,200,000 605 -40% 64,947,125
6. 1408 MGM 2,733 1,510,000 553 -37% 43,606,034

[Yog]

Transformers made 27M on opening day. Should have a comparable number on wedneday (4th of July), with a 6 day gross in the 125-135M range.

Ratatouille is holding exceptionally well. Should make more than 50 for 6 days.

Live Free or Die Hard also holds pretty well, could make 30M+.

License to Wed tanks pretty hard with its 2.2M opening day, and is likely to end up in 5th spot, with a gross in the 10-15M range.

Even Almighty does pretty much as expected, and will likely do somewhere near 15M.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Transformers made 27M on opening day. Should have a comparable number on wedneday (4th of July), with a 6 day gross in the 125-135M range.

Ratatouille is holding exceptionally well. Should make more than 50 for 6 days.

Live Free or Die Hard also holds pretty well, could make 30M+.

License to Wed tanks pretty hard with its 2.2M opening day, and is likely to end up in 5th spot, with a gross in the 10-15M range.

Even Almighty does pretty much as expected, and will likely do somewhere near 15M.

Along with Dizzy the three of us are closest to it. I might be too high. It is hard to tell though not sure what the drops will be. I know it will drop today because the 4th is a poor movie holiday. People are mostly barbacuing and watching fireworks. I do think 300 looks unlikely and I guess I should have took that bet :p I have to say I was probably wrong and that it should do 250or close to it.

[sirdizzy]

I just wanted the lowest number, I thought that it would do less than everyone expected and it has

[Yog]

Along with Dizzy the three of us are closest to it. I might be too high. It is hard to tell though not sure what the drops will be. I know it will drop today because the 4th is a poor movie holiday. People are mostly barbacuing and watching fireworks. I do think 300 looks unlikely and I guess I should have took that bet :p I have to say I was probably wrong and that it should do 250or close to it.

Well, it's not THAT bad day for movies. Look here for previous examples of 4th of July drops. The top 3; ID4, MIB2 and T3 are the most relevant, since they opened the day before and on a weekday:

Movie...............................Day.......Gros s......Drop
Independence Day.......Thursday..$17.3.....-1%
Men in Black II...........Thursday...$16.5.....-11%
Terminator 3..............Thursday...$11.9.....-4%
Spider-man 2.............Sunday.......$22.0.....-35%
Superman Returns.......Tuesdsay....$10.5....-19%
The Devil Wears Prada..Tuesday.....$5.6......-20%
War of the Worlds.......Mondsay......$12.1.....-39%

I think Transformers might drop, but not by much. Two reasons for that. First and foremost, it is receiving terrific Word of Mouth. Secondly, it was marketed as a 4th of July movie, thus a lot of people planned to watch it that day anyway. Maybe something like 25M tomorrow.

The big question is thursday. It could make as much as 20M or as little as 15M. This will decide who gets closest. Over 3 day, it could make as little as 55M or as high as 65 (if it gets pushed by WOM). There is still quite a bit of uncertainty here.

Right now, I think about 275M total gross. I would not count out 300M entirely though. But yeah, you should have taken that bet.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Along with Dizzy the three of us are closest to it. I might be too high. It is hard to tell though not sure what the drops will be. I know it will drop today because the 4th is a poor movie holiday. People are mostly barbacuing and watching fireworks. I do think 300 looks unlikely and I guess I should have took that bet :p I have to say I was probably wrong and that it should do 250or close to it.

Well, it's not THAT bad day for movies. Look here for previous examples of 4th of July drops. The top 3; ID4, MIB2 and T3 are the most relevant, since they opened the day before and on a weekday:

Movie...............................Day.......Gros s......Drop
Independence Day.......Thursday..$17.3.....-1%
Men in Black II...........Thursday...$16.5.....-11%
Terminator 3..............Thursday...$11.9.....-4%
Spider-man 2.............Sunday.......$22.0.....-35%
Superman Returns.......Tuesdsay....$10.5....-19%
The Devil Wears Prada..Tuesday.....$5.6......-20%
War of the Worlds.......Mondsay......$12.1.....-39%

I think Transformers might drop, but not by much. Two reasons for that. First and foremost, it is receiving terrific Word of Mouth. Secondly, it was marketed as a 4th of July movie, thus a lot of people planned to watch it that day anyway. Maybe something like 25M tomorrow.

The big question is thursday. It could make as much as 20M or as little as 15M. This will decide who gets closest. Over 3 day, it could make as little as 55M or as high as 65 (if it gets pushed by WOM). There is still quite a bit of uncertainty here.

Right now, I think about 275M total gross. I would not count out 300M entirely though. But yeah, you should have taken that bet.

I would ignore ID4 because it was very Patriotic themed. and that is why it has the best unadjusted July 4th gross. Transformers won't top ID4 adjusted (which is like 26 million) It will drop anywhere from 10-15%. Probably closer to 10. I say it does like 23-24 today which is still very good.

[Yog]

I agree ID4 is not a good comparison, since it's a movie about Independence Day on... well, Independence Day. Also, movies are more frontloaded now.

Comparing it to Men in Black 2 is probably a better fit. Which is like 11% drop.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I agree ID4 is not a good comparison, since it's a movie about Independence Day on... well, Independence Day. Also, movies are more frontloaded now.

Comparing it to Men in Black 2 is probably a better fit. Which is like 11% drop.

That sounds about right.

[Yog]

I am reading reports of lots of sellouts. It would funny if it went on to actually increase. I am now hearing about movie theater parking lots PACKED with cars:


I tried to get to the earliest show scheduled for today at 10:45 AM. Fortunately, I called again this morning, because they moved the earliest show BACK to 10:00 AM. We managed to get to the theater for the 11:30 AM show, but it was SOLD OUT along with the NEXT show, and we had to buy tickets for the 1:20 show 2 HOURS in ADVANCE. I had NEVER seen the parking lot of a theater so PACKED before...


It is doing extremely well for the matinees, usual megaplex sold out everything from 12-5 today.


I just got closed out of the TFORM showings at the Regal in New Rochelle , NY. Place was packed.


Looks like pretty much all the Manhattan, NY locations are sold out until 10:30-11:00 (as of 7:43 EST)

I am actually more excited to see wednesday number than for opening day. Who knows where this ends...

[Yog]

Wednesday 4th of July numbers:

1. TRANSFORMERS PARAMOUNT 4,011 28,960,000 7,152 n/a 64,886,000
2. RATATOUILLE BVI 3,940 10,250,000 2,602 n/a 72,718,000
3. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,408 6,085,000 1,786 -33% 63,225,000
4. LICENSE TO WED WARNER BROS. 2,401 2,945,000 1,227 n/a 5,155,000
5. EVAN ALMIGHTY UNIVERSAL 3,636 2,875,000 791 -15% 67,935,000
6. 1408 MGM 2,733 1,630,000 596 -18% 45,236,034

[Yog]

Transformers increase sure is impressive. A movie never increased on 4th of July from opening day, AFAIK. Some very unusual traffic here with increases all over the line here. Might be related to the mix of rainy weather some places and heat other places (watching movies in an air conditioned theater can be nice).

I can't help wondering if Transformers is part of the reason though, and that there is some spillover traffic from people who didn't get a ticket.

Transformers now got 56.3M after two days of traffic. We will probably see some big drops now on thursday. If Transformers is able to make 20M on thursday, it's a sign not to be ignored and it could make 300M overall. The worst it can do is about 15M I feel, which is still very solid. No matter what though, Transformers got some more upside now and I doubt it will make less than 130 for 6 days.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

All the trailers I saw until maybe two weeks ago all said 7/4/07 as the release date for Transformers. Then they all changed to say 7/3/07. So maybe everyone was confused about when the movie was opening. I know I was. :)

[Yog]

All the trailers I saw until maybe two weeks ago all said 7/4/07 as the release date for Transformers. Then they all changed to say 7/3/07. So maybe everyone was confused about when the movie was opening. I know I was. :)

Yes, that too. I was not even aware it opened the third until a few days before, and I probably would not have known if I were not following box office.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Everything increased I say its the weather. 2/3 of the east coast had rain yesterday. I bet it suffers a huge decrease today though. The day after the 4th usually has bad decreases.

[Cat X]

Everything increased I say its the weather. 2/3 of the east coast had rain yesterday. I bet it suffers a huge decrease today though. The day after the 4th usually has bad decreases.

It wont be as bad as your expecting tho. After all, it's proving to be a real surprise package all round - an increase for July 4 was very impressive and a sure sign word of mouth is going to boost backsides in seats.

RATATOUILLE looks like it's going to have some long legs too - something sorely missing from movies for quite some time.

[CMJ]

Everything increased I say its the weather. 2/3 of the east coast had rain yesterday. I bet it suffers a huge decrease today though. The day after the 4th usually has bad decreases.


Dude, you wanna give it a little credit? You've made disaparraging comments about it's BO potential for about 4 months now, and even when it's doing quite well you're spinning in negatively.

Transformers currently seems on a trajectory of around 140M for the first 6+ days. We'll see how it holds up today.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Everything increased I say its the weather. 2/3 of the east coast had rain yesterday. I bet it suffers a huge decrease today though. The day after the 4th usually has bad decreases.


Dude, you wanna give it a little credit? You've made disaparraging comments about it's BO potential for about 4 months now, and even when it's doing quite well you're spinning in negatively.

Transformers currently seems on a trajectory of around 140M for the first 6+ days. We'll see how it holds up today.

I thought I already gave it credit when I said I was wrong and it would defintely make 250. And I haven't made that bad comments I said I though it was guarenteed 200 million months ago. I did say that it didn't appeal to me which is different. I just think it will be frontloaded like nearly every major blockbuster will be. Heck OOTP will make 150-160 in its first five days but it won't make 300 either and I will even admit that and that is my movie. Maybe I made that statement a little too harsh though, what I did mean was that every movie will drop today.

[Yog]

RATATOUILLE looks like it's going to have some long legs too - something sorely missing from movies for quite some time.

Ratatouille has amazing legs. Even forgetting the wednesday number, it held terrific on monday and tuesday. The movie audience is clearly responding to a good quality animation movie.

[Jedi Master Carr]

RATATOUILLE looks like it's going to have some long legs too - something sorely missing from movies for quite some time.

Ratatouille has amazing legs. Even forgetting the wednesday number, it held terrific on monday and tuesday. The movie audience is clearly responding to a good quality animation movie.

I know, although it needs to make as much as possible before Wed. Potter will really eat into its legs.

[Yog]

Actually, I think Ratatouille is the kind of movie it does not matter what competition you throw at it, it will still hold well. Animation movies can be weird like that, especially pixar movies. They last for weeks and weeks and.. well, you get the picture. In all fairness, HP has much of the same demographic. I just don't think of Ratatouille and HP as real competitors, since the former will just last and last, and the latter is too big to be majorly affected by a movie which will gross maybe 20M next weekend. Hoevever, Transformers and HP could hurt each other a bit.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually, I think Ratatouille is the kind of movie it does not matter what competition you throw at it, it will still hold well. Animation movies can be weird like that, especially pixar movies. They last for weeks and weeks and.. well, you get the picture. In all fairness, HP has much of the same demographic. I just don't think of Ratatouille and HP as real competitors, since the former will just last and last, and the latter is too big to be majorly affected by a movie which will gross maybe 20M next weekend. Hoevever, Transformers and HP could hurt each other a bit.

Potter could hurt Transformers more. I say that because it is the new movie. Of course at the same time they might not effect each other. Spiderman didn't hurt AOTC's OW. Sure AOTC had bad legs but that was for other reasons.

[Yog]

Yeah, well, personally I think competition in box office is overrated. Basically, in most cases each movie has a base audience who will see the movie x amount of time, based on fanbase, prerelease hype, word of mouth, and repeat viewings. It's normally not that much of a factor, although it was a significant factor the last weekend in may when Shrek 3 and POTC3 went head to head. That weekend was just insane.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah, well, personally I think competition in box office is overrated. Basically, in most cases each movie has a base audience who will see the movie x amount of time, based on fanbase, prerelease hype, word of mouth, and repeat viewings. It's normally not that much of a factor, although it was a significant factor the last weekend in may when Shrek 3 and POTC3 went head to head. That weekend was just insane.

Well neither of those films have big fanbases which I think was some of it. Next weekend I don't think will be that much of hit on either film. Transformers will drop some, although because it opened on a Tuesday the weekend drop will be like 50% but that will have nothing to do with Potter. Potter will open huge but that is more because it has a rabid fanbase who will rush to see it and it doesn't matter what is opening. When Shrek 2 was in Theaters the third Potter movie made like 93 million. When SS opened it, it had Monsters INC which didn't effect it. I think both films will do what they are expected to and I don't think they will hurt each other.

[Yog]

1. TRANSFORMERS PARAMOUNT 4,011 19,335,000 4,820 n/a 84,921,000
2. RATATOUILLE BVI 3,940 7,890,000 2,003 n/a 80,608,000
3. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,408 3,610,000 1,059 -39% 66,835,000
4. LICENSE TO WED WARNER BROS. 2,401 2,205,000 918 n/a 7,360,000
5. EVAN ALMIGHTY UNIVERSAL 3,636 2,080,000 572 -37% 70,015,000


Mighty Allspark! Transformers dropped, but not nearly as much as it could have. I think it will make the 300M mark now. Tomorrow, it will rise again since it is friday, maybe 25M or so. Then a 70-75M over the 3 day weekend. As a result, it should make more than 140, possibly as high as 150.

[CMJ]

My 6 day prediction is looking better and better. Nice hold for Thursday. How was that weather Carr? ;)

[Cat X]

Transformers CAN make 160, exactly as I said.

Go Autobots!

[Jedi Master Carr]

My 6 day prediction is looking better and better. Nice hold for Thursday. How was that weather Carr? ;)

I said it would drop and it did. Well I said everything will drop. Oh well I think the movie looks stupid, but I can't deny its box office. I still don't like it. Oh well, I can guarentee OOTP will a get better reviews (it has already gotten 4 glowing ones), and b beat Transformers WW. Potter should dominate it overseas.

[CMJ]

I said it would drop and it did. Well I said everything will drop. Oh well I think the movie looks stupid, but I can't deny its box office. I still don't like it. Oh well, I can guarentee OOTP will a get better reviews (it has already gotten 4 glowing ones), and b beat Transformers WW. Potter should dominate it overseas.


You said huge drop buddy...it was under 35%.

[Cat X]

My 6 day prediction is looking better and better. Nice hold for Thursday. How was that weather Carr? ;)

I said it would drop and it did. Well I said everything will drop. Oh well I think the movie looks stupid, but I can't deny its box office. I still don't like it. Oh well, I can guarentee OOTP will a get better reviews (it has already gotten 4 glowing ones), and b beat Transformers WW. Potter should dominate it overseas.

Who cares about reviews from stuck up movie ponces? And how on earth can you say Transformers 'looks' stupid when the people who you can trust to actually give a fair and accurate assessment of the film - ie US, love the thing to bits? Every one of us who naysayed are completely won over after watchign because it's actually a damn good escapist blow crap up film. I'm happy to admit I was completely wrong from my first assessments from trailers.

Maybe if you saw it, you will think differently. Do yourself a favour and get tickets.

If Transformers didnt drop from a holiday to a work day, that would be a true first. Of course everythign was goign to drop - the fact is tho that the degree of drop for Transformers was very good and bodes well for a much better weekend than most expect.

[Jedi Master Carr]

My 6 day prediction is looking better and better. Nice hold for Thursday. How was that weather Carr? ;)

I said it would drop and it did. Well I said everything will drop. Oh well I think the movie looks stupid, but I can't deny its box office. I still don't like it. Oh well, I can guarentee OOTP will a get better reviews (it has already gotten 4 glowing ones), and b beat Transformers WW. Potter should dominate it overseas.

Who cares about reviews from stuck up movie ponces? And how on earth can you say Transformers 'looks' stupid when the people who you can trust to actually give a fair and accurate assessment of the film - ie US, love the thing to bits? Every one of us who naysayed are completely won over after watchign because it's actually a damn good escapist blow crap up film. I'm happy to admit I was completely wrong from my first assessments from trailers.

Maybe if you saw it, you will think differently. Do yourself a favour and get tickets.

If Transformers didnt drop from a holiday to a work day, that would be a true first. Of course everythign was goign to drop - the fact is tho that the degree of drop for Transformers was very good and bodes well for a much better weekend than most expect.


You see I don't care about movies with explosions any more. I can't really even watch ID4 anymore. My tastes in movies have just changed. I don't think I have to see a movie just because everybody else liked it. I don't tell people you have to see Harry Potter or something like that. It just doesn't appeal to me and I base that off the trailers and I am not going to waste 8 bucks when I am not interested in the trailers. I also don't have the time to go to the movies like I used to. I have only seen three movies in theaters this year. Harry Potter will be the fourth and I am saving up for that one.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I said it would drop and it did. Well I said everything will drop. Oh well I think the movie looks stupid, but I can't deny its box office. I still don't like it. Oh well, I can guarentee OOTP will a get better reviews (it has already gotten 4 glowing ones), and b beat Transformers WW. Potter should dominate it overseas.


You said huge drop buddy...it was under 35%.

Well I didn't mean that big, I guess I thought anything over 25% for the movies this weekend would be big. Lets just say I overexagerated that 25% is a big drop.

[Yog]

SBD Friday estimates:

1. TRANSFORMERS PARAMOUNT 4,011 22,372,000 5,578 n/a 107,293,000
2. RATATOUILLE BVI 3,940 9,401,000 2,386 n/a 90,009,000
3. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,411 5,351,000 1,569 n/a 72,186,000
4. LICENSE TO WED WARNER BROS. 2,604 3,684,000 1,415 n/a 11,044,000
5. EVAN ALMIGHTY UNIVERSAL 3,466 2,810,000 811 n/a 72,825,000
6. 1408 MGM 2,631 2,374,000 902 n/a 49,125,034
7. KNOCKED UP UNIVERSAL 2,211 1,651,000 747 n/a 128,621,335
8. FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,618 1,249,000 477 n/a 120,801,632
9. OCEAN'S THIRTEEN WARNER BROS. 2,102 1,100,000 523 n/a 106,761,028
10. SICKO LIONS GATE 702 1,025,000 1,460 n/a 8,635,00

Transformers currently on pace for about 67-70M 3-day weekend, depending on multiplyer. Adding that to the 76M it made the first 3 days of release, it makes for an approximate 143-146M 6-day total. Looking forward to see the saturday number, as we will know more precisely how much it will make.


6-day projections:
Transformers 143-146M
Ratatouille 55-57M
Live Free or Die Hard 29-33M
License To Wed 15-18M
Evan Almighty 14-16M

[Jedi Master Carr]

SBD Friday estimates:

1. TRANSFORMERS PARAMOUNT 4,011 22,372,000 5,578 n/a 107,293,000
2. RATATOUILLE BVI 3,940 9,401,000 2,386 n/a 90,009,000
3. LIVE FREE OR DIE HARD 20TH CENTURY FOX 3,411 5,351,000 1,569 n/a 72,186,000
4. LICENSE TO WED WARNER BROS. 2,604 3,684,000 1,415 n/a 11,044,000
5. EVAN ALMIGHTY UNIVERSAL 3,466 2,810,000 811 n/a 72,825,000
6. 1408 MGM 2,631 2,374,000 902 n/a 49,125,034
7. KNOCKED UP UNIVERSAL 2,211 1,651,000 747 n/a 128,621,335
8. FANTASTIC FOUR: RISE OF THE SILVER SURFER 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,618 1,249,000 477 n/a 120,801,632
9. OCEAN'S THIRTEEN WARNER BROS. 2,102 1,100,000 523 n/a 106,761,028
10. SICKO LIONS GATE 702 1,025,000 1,460 n/a 8,635,00

Transformers currently on pace for about 67-70M 3-day weekend, depending on multiplyer. Adding that to the 76M it made the first 3 days of release, it makes for an approximate 143-146M 6-day total. Looking forward to see the saturday number, as we will know more precisely how much it will make.


6-day projections:
Transformers 143-146M
Ratatouille 55-57M
Live Free or Die Hard 29-33M
License To Wed 15-18M
Evan Almighty 14-16M


That sounds right. I think the Friday increase wasn't higher because of the first couple of days. Looks like I wasn't far off for Ratatouille.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Its going to take some time to figure out the results here. There are no 6 day numbers out there for any of the films. I am just going to post next weeks in the mean time. Either me or Yog will post the results by tomorrow at the latest.

[CMJ]

I was afraid of that.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I was afraid of that.

We are going to have to tally it up individually but it will get done. I wish I had thought of that before we did, probably would have been easier to do like we are doing with OOTP.

[sirdizzy]

ummm its not that hard, yahoo does daily numbers just subtract monday's total from sundays total

1. Transformers $155,405,412
2. Ratatouille $54,953,243
3. Live Free or Die Hard $31,749,032
4. Licence to Wed $17,738,076
5. Evan Almighty $16,845,695


see how easy that was, you were making it way too hard by adding day by day, just do a minus instead

[Yog]

6-day actuals
1. Transformers: $146,604,387
2. Ratatoulle: $54,953,243
3. Live Free or Die Hard: $31,749,032
4. License to Wed: $17,838,076
5. Evan Almighty: $15,845,695

Accuracy Points
# 1 - 50 pts: CMJ (Transformers)
# 2 - 40 pts: Jedi Master Carr (Ratatouille)
# 3 - 30 pts: sirdizzy (Live Free or Die Hard)
# 4 - 20 pts: Lilaena De'Ville (License to Wed)
# 5 - 10 pts: Lilaena De'Ville (Evan Almighty)

Weekend Points
CMJ: 100
Jedi Master Carr: 90
sirdizzy: 80
Lilaena De'Ville: 80
Ryan Pode: 50
Yog: 30

Season Totals
Lilaena De'Ville: 440
CMJ: 435
Jedi Master Carr: 395
SirDizzy: 285
Yog: 265
Ryan Pode: 250
Jedieb: 180
Hera: 165
Kaast Dulli: 85
JMK: 75

Close race between the top 3..

Edit: Argh.. this is what happens when I do calculus in the morning. De'Ville is still ahead by 5 points. 50+30 = 80, not 70. Also, sirdizzy gets 10 points more.

:lol

[Lilaena De'Ville]

CMJ! :shakefist

I would have gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for those darn kids and their dog!

:mneh

[CMJ]

Excellent!! :D

[Yog]

Remind me to not do pre school level maths 8 am in the morning.. <img src=http://www.mneh.org/s/downs.gif>

I corrected a couple errors. LD still in the lead.

[Michael Cline]

*EDIT* (Nevermind I figured it out, I = dumb)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Cool thanks Yog. Wow the three of us are pretty close right now.