Yog's Weekend Preview
This weekend, all points are doubled, and it's a 4 day weekend with memorial day on monday. The box office is sizzling hot, and this should be a great weekend to play.
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"Yo-ho-yo-ho, a pirate's life for me!"
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Theaters: 4,362
Official Website: http://pirates.movies.com/
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/disney/piratesofthecaribbeanatworldsend/>Click for Trailers</a>
<a href=http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/pirates_of_the_caribbean_3/>RT Reviews</a>
Production Budget: $225 million
Running Time: 2 hrs. 45 min.
MPAA Rating: PG-13
Genre: Action, Adventure, Comedy
Cast: Johnny Depp, Orlando Bloom, Keira Knightley, Geoffrey Rush, Bill Nighy, Chow Yun-Fat, Stellan Skarsgård, Jack Davenport, Naomie Harris, Kevin R. McNally, Lee Arenberg, Mackenzie Crook, Andy Beckwith, Reggie Lee
Director: Gore Verbinski (Pirates of the Caribbean: Curse of the Black Pearl, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, Mouse Hunt, The Ring, The Weather Man)
Plot synopsis:
It is a dark time as the Age of Piracy nears to a close. Lord Cutler Beckett (TOM HOLLANDER) of the East India Company has gained control of the terrifying ghost ship, the Flying Dutchman, and its malevolent, vengeful captain, Davy Jones (BILL NIGHY). The Dutchman now roams the seven seas, unstoppable, destroying pirate ships without mercy, under the command of Admiral Norrington (JACK DAVENPORT).
Will Turner (ORLANDO BLOOM), Elizabeth Swann (KEIRA KNIGHTLEY) and Captain Barbossa (GEOFFREY RUSH) embark on a desperate quest to gather the Nine Lords of the Brethren Court, their only hope to defeat Beckett, the Flying Dutchman, and his Armada. But one of the Lords is missing—Captain Jack Sparrow (JOHNNY DEPP), either the best or worst pirate ever, and now trapped in Davy Jones’ Locker, thanks to his encounter with the monstrous Kraken.
In an increasingly shaky alliance, our heroes, including Tia Dalma (NAOMIE HARRIS), Pintel (LEE ARENBERG) and Ragetti (MACKENZIE CROOK), must first travel to dangerous, exotic Singapore and confront Chinese pirate Captain Sao Feng (CHOW YUN-FAT) to gain charts, and a ship, that will take them off to world’s end, to rescue Jack. But even if Captain Jack is successfully rescued, the gathering of the legendary Brethren Court may not be enough to hold back the fearsome tide of Beckett, Davy Jones and their powerful Armada…unless the capricious sea goddess Calypso, imprisoned in human form, can be freed and convinced to come to their aid.
As betrayal piles upon betrayal, it becomes clear that Jack, Will, Elizabeth, Sao Feng, and Barbossa each have their own agenda, and no one can be trusted. Yet each must choose a side, and make their final alliances for one last battle, in a titanic showdown that could eliminate the freedom-loving pirates from the seven seas—forever.
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Bug
Theaters: 1,661
Official Website: http://www.bugthemovie.com/
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/lions_gate/bug/trailer1b/>Click for Trailer</a>
<a href=http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bug/>RT Reviews</a>
Production Budget: a drop in the bucket
Running Time: 1 hrs. 42 min.
MPAA Rating: R
Genre: Drama, Thriller, Horror
Cast: Ashley Judd, Michael Shannon, Harry Connick, Jr., Lynn Collins, BrÃan O'Byrne, Michael Shannon
Director: William Friedkin (The Exorcist, The French Connection, The Hunted, To Live and Die in L.A., Rules of Engagement)
Plot synopsis:
Having escaped her abusive ex-husband Goss (Harry Connick Jr.), recently released from state prison, Agnes (Ashley Judd), a lonely waitress with a tragic past moves into a sleazy, run-down motel and her lesbian co-worker R.C (Lynn Collins) introduces her to Gulf War veteran Peter (Michael Shannon), a peculiar, paranoiac drifter and they begin a tentative romance. However, things don't always seem as they appear and Agnes is about to experience a claustrophobic nightmare reality as the bugs begin to arrive... Directed by William Friedkin ("The Exorcist") and adapted by Trecy Letts from his hit off-Broadway play.
Weekend Analysis
With memorial day on monday, and 3 of the biggest franchises running head to head, it's shaping up to become an amazing weekend for box office. It is memorial 4 day weekend, which remains one of the top movie going weekends of the year. The top 3 moves should make something around 260M together, which is a record.
Pirates of the Caribbean remains an incredible powerful franchise. Last year, Dead Man's Chest went to make an unprecedented 135M 3-day opening. Spider-man upped the ante some weeks ago with 150M. The marketing is very strong as usual, and the anticipation is up the roof. Disappointingly, the reviews so far are not that great. This is likely to hurt its legs and the final gross, but it should still do an incredible opening. Expect around 160-180M over the 4 day frame, and 350-400M total gross.
Shrek the third impressed us all with a 121M opening last week, which is amazing for an animated feature. Animations are very family and kids oriented, in contrast to teen focused movies where the crowds rush to see it opening weekend. Therefore, such movies have great second weekends, and great legs overall. The mediocre / poor reviews should hurt it's overall run, although kid oriented movies are not quite as sensitive to the reviews. Shrek 2 had the biggest second weekend ever dropping from 108M, to 72M which is only a 33% decline, and the biggest second weekend ever. Shrek 3 should have similar decline, which puts it in the 65-80M range over the weekend.
Spider-man 3 had two very nasty drops in a row, and at some point, you gotta believe the fall will be cushioned. This is due to the mixed reception, which killed repeat traffic and the word of mouth. First a 60% then a 50%, but now, I believe the decline will finally slow down a bit, especially with the extra day of traffic. A 30-40% drop is likely, which makes for a weekend in the 16-21M region.
Bug is way below people's radar. And even though the concept looks interesting from the trailer, no amount of counter programming can go against the top 3 movies. When a well known zombie horror flick like "28 weeks later could only make 10M opening, I can't see this doing any better. A 3-7M opening is about what it can do.
On the note of 28 weeks later, it should have another ~40% drop, falling to 5th place. It's main competition is Disturbia, which continues to impress week after week. Disturbia is likely to stay on that pattern with ~3M over the weekend.
Waitress is expanding from 116-510 theaters. It made 1M last weekend. The theater increase should give it quite a boost, although the per theater average will drop. I am thinking ~3M+ over the 4 day frame.
4-day weekend projections
1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: 160-180M
2. Shrek the Third: 65-80M
3. Spider-Man 3: 16-21M
4. Bug: 3-7M
5. 28 Weeks Later 3.5-4M
Outsiders:
Waitress: ~3M+
Disturbia: ~3M+