Summer 2007 Box office contest week 3 Picks due 9PM PST

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay weekend three is here and it still anybody's game. Here is the top five if people need to be reminded
1 Spiderman 3 $58,166,256
2 28 Weeks later $9,807,292
3 Georgia Rule $6,773,870
4 Distubia $4,732,839
5 Delta Farce $3,420,645

New Releases Shrek the Third 4000+ theaters
This week should be pretty easy to predict the top 5.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Shrek The Third
Being king isn't for everyone--especially if you're a prickly ogre who smells like the shallow end of a swamp. When Shrek married Fiona, the last thing he wanted was to rule Far Far Away, but when his frogger-in-law, King Harold, suddenly croaks, Shrek is quickly fitted for the crown. Now, unless the reluctant would-be king can find a suitable replacement, he'll be royally screwed for the rest of his days. As if Shrek didn't have enough on his plate, Princess Fiona has another little surprise on the way. With his head spinning and his belly in knots, Shrek sets off on a quest to find the only other possible heir to the throne, Fiona's long-lost cousin Artie, an underachieving medieval high schooler. While the ogre is away, his old nemesis Prince Charming rears his handsome head and returns to the kingdom of Far Far Away with redemption on his shallow little mind. Even with Donkey and the ever-so-suave Puss in Boots by their side, it's going to take an ogre-sized effort--and a whole lot of help from Fiona and her band of princesses--for Shrek and Artie to save the day and find their own "Happily Ever After."

Trailers
http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1808716389/trailer

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't think this will effect Shrek's OW but man it is getting killed by the critics it is at 42% at RT and cream of the Crop is 37%. Even Spiderman 3 didn't get that bad reviews.

[Yog]

Oh crap, that's a major downer. That puts it in the "rotten" category actually. I was hoping it would be much better :(

[Jedi Master Carr]

I know I was surprised to see it. Spiderman 3 didn't get this bad. I wonder if Pirates is continue this trend of mixed to bad reviews for the May sequels.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Okay I am going to go
1 Shrek the Third 104.567
2 Spiderman 3 $27.234
3 28 Weeks later $4.994
4 Georgia Rule $4.456
5 Distubia $3.664

[Jedieb]

1 Shrek the Third 121.567123
2 Spiderman 3 $26.123456
3 28 Weeks later $4.123456
4 Distubia $3.987654
5 Georgia Rule $3.543219

[Yog]

1. Shrek 3 $108.12M
2. Spiderman 3 $30.05M
3. 28 Weeks Later $5.33M
4. Disturbia $3.78M
5. Georgia Rule $3.35M

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Shrek 3 - 112.52
Spidey 3 - 28.32
28 Weeks Later - 10.91
Disturbia 3.11
Georgia Rule - 2.98

[Jedi Master Carr]

Only a few hours left people :) Have until 11PM EST.

[sirdizzy]

1 Shrek the Third $114.22
2 Spiderman 3 $31.33
3 28 Weeks later $4.44
4 Georgia Rule $3.29
5 Distubia $2.98

[Hera]

1. Shrek 3 $120.7M
2. Spiderman 3 $27.5M
3. 28 Weeks Later $6.45M
4. Disturbia $2.92M
5. Georgia Rule $2.70M<!-- / message -->

[CMJ]

1. Shrek 3 - 101.10M
2. Spider-Man 3 - 28.52M
3. 28 Weeks Later - 5.51M
4. Georgia Rule - 3.84M
5. Disturbia - 3.28M

[Yog]

Friday estimates (BOM)

1. SHREK THE THIRD: $38,100,000
2. SPIDER-MAN 3: $8,000,000
3. 28 WEEKS LATER: $1,675,000
4. DISTURBIA: $1,200,000
5. GEORGIA RULE: $1,125,000

Looks like the summer season is in full swing now.

Shrek the third has an ogre sized opening with a phenomenal ~38M on friday + 1M or so in sneak previews. Being an animated feature, it should have an excellent weekend multiplier, and no difficulty hitting the 120M mark over the weekend, possibly around 130M. The awareness level is very high, and being such a family oriented movie, it should have decent legs over the run, although probably not quite as much as the previous 2 movies, because of mediocre and poor reviews. The exit polls indicates it is generally well received with a B+ average. With such a big opening, it should end up around 400M+ at the end of its run.

Spidey 3 keeps falling fast with a 50%+ drop. With 8M on friday, it should probably do around 26-28M over the weekend. It's on pace for a less than 350M overall gross, which is somewhat disappointing considering the opening.

28 Weeks makes 1.67M on friday, with a probable 3-day gross around 4.5-5M .

Disturbia continues to hold extremely well with a 1.2M on friday, which is only a 25% drop from last friday. It should do middle between 3 and 4M.

Georgia, which tanked horribly last weekend show little sign of recovery. With a 1.1M friday, and a normal sunday coming up, it should be on the low end of 3M.

Next week, it gets really crazy with the 4 day memorial day weekend, and POTC 3 is aiming for another monster opening, comparable to either Spidey 3 (150M) or POTC 2 (135). 3 of the biggest franchises at the box office at once will make for some insane box office traffic. Being a family oriented animation feature, Shrek 3 should still have great repeat business, despite the reviews. It may very well break the second weekend record.

Tune in tomorrow for weekend estimates :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Next weekend will be unbelievable, maybe the largest weekend of all time.

Looks like Jedieb will probably come up huge on Shrek. I was underestimated it because of the reviews which was dumb because that will effect its legs more than OW.

[Yog]

Next weekend will be unbelievable, maybe the largest weekend of all time.

I think you are right. There has never been a better chance for that to happen.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think you are right. There has never been a better chance for that to happen.

I think Pirates will make about 160 for the 4 days, Shrek 3 90, and Spiderman 3 20.

[Yog]

I think Pirates will make about 160 for the 4 days, Shrek 3 90, and Spiderman 3 20.

That sounds about right, which is like 270M for those 3 movies alone, IN ONE WEEKEND! :eek

[Jedi Master Carr]

Yeah yikes that alone would be the record.

[Yog]

Weekend Estimates:
1. SHREK THE THIRD: $122,000,000 (NEW!)
2. SPIDER-MAN 3: $28,500,000 (-51.0%)
3. 28 WEEKS LATER: $5,150,000 (-47.5%)
4. DISTURBIA: $3,675,000 (-22.4%)
5. GEORGIA RULE: $3,493,000 (-48.4%)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Friday had a bigger rush out for Shrek than I thought, had a weaker IM than the previous two but that is more because it is a sequel and there is frontloading regardless. Still great weekend for Shrek should do 350+. Could do 400, but it might be tough with Pirates on its back.

[Yog]

Weekend Actuals
1. Shrek the Third: $121,629,270
2. Spider-Man 3: $29,022,026
3. 28 Weeks Later: $5,454,168
4. Georgia Rule: $3,745,880
5. Disturbia: $3,731,349


Accuracy Points
# 1 - 25 pts: Jedieb (Shrek 3)
# 2 - 20 pts: CMJ (Spidey 3)
# 3 - 15 pts: CMJ (28 Weeks Later)
# 4 - 10 pts: CMJ (Georgia Rule)
# 5 - 5 pts: Yog (Disturbia)


Weekend Points
CMJ: 70
Jedieb: 40
Jedi Master Carr: 25
sirdizzy: 25
Yog: 20
Hera: 15
Lilaena De'Ville: 15

Season Total
CMJ: 120
Jedieb: 100
Yog: 75
Lilaena De'Ville: 70
Jedi Master Carr: 70
Hera: 60
SirDizzy: 55
Ryan Pode: 55
Kaast Dulli: 45
JMK: 35

(remember, the worst scores will be cut, and it's a LONG season)


CMJ has a monster week. Jedieb is still going strong. Next week, will be very exciting, as it's shaping up to become the biggest weekend in box office history, and it's double points. Be there, or be square!

[CMJ]

Holy cow...I did have a good week!

[Lilaena De'Ville]

CMJ has insider info. /spreads rumor

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL I think he just is a good guesser.