Summer box office contest 2007 week 2 Picks due by 9PM PST

[Jedi Master Carr]

First the time got moved up mainly because me and yog have discovered there is a guy out there who seems to have some inside information and has a website where he is posting friday's numbers and an estimated weekend numbers. He has been very close in his picks. Well he is posting this at almost midnight in the east so to play it safe we are moving it up. I think that leaves plenty of time to make your picks.
Okay weekend two is here. And even if you missed last week you can still play. With the new rules nobody is out of it for missing a week or having a bad week or two.
Last weekend's top 5 Heck I am just posting the top 3 if two of the three new movies can't make at least 3 million then that is just pathetic.
1 Spiderman 3 $151,116,516
2 Disturbia $5,844,363
3 Fracture $3,696,060

New Releases
28 Weeks Later, sequel to 28 days later
Georgia Rule Staring Jane Fonda and Lindsey Lohan
Delta Farce Some kind of comedy.
I will put up theater counts later once they are annouced.

[CMJ]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 55.26
2. 28 Weeks Later - 15.50M
3. Georgia Rule - 14.11M
4. Delta Farce - 6.07M
5. Disturbia - 4.32M

[Jedi Master Carr]

Theater Counts
New - Wide
Georgia Rule - 2,523
28 Weeks Later - 2,303
Delta Farce - 1,931
The Ex - 1,009

New - Limited
The Salon - 210
Blind Dating - 74
Home of the Brave - 44
The Hip Hop Project - 43

Holdovers - Increasing
Year of the Dog - 152 (+11)
Waitress - 65 (+61)
Away from Her - 41 (+37)

Holdovers - Flat
Spider-Man 3 - 4,252
Lucky You - 2,525

Holdovers - Decreasing
Disturbia - 3,106 (-26)
Fracture - 2,202 (-163)
Next - 2,017 (-716)
The Invisible - 1,943 (-76)
Meet the Robinsons - 1,640 (-467)
Blades of Glory - 1,436 (-677)
Hot Fuzz - 1,236 (-30)
Are We Done Yet? - 1,010 (-694)
Vacancy - 906 (-792)
Wild Hogs - 717 (-243)
The Condemned - 508 (-1,802)
In the Land of Women - 455 (-553)
Kickin' It Old Skool - 277 (-1,308)
The Namesake - 271 (-11)

New Movies
28 Weeks Later
Six months have passed since the rage virus has annihilated the British Isles. The U.S. Army declares that the war against infection has been won, and that the reconstruction of the country can begin. As the first wave of refugees return, a family is reunited--but one of them unwittingly carries a terrible secret. The virus is not yet dead, and this time--showing no outward symptoms--it is more dangerous than ever.
Trailer http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1809748477/trailer

Georgia Rule
Rebellious teenager Rachel screams, swears, drinks and is, in a word, uncontrollable. With her latest car crash, Rachel has broken the final rule in mom Lilly's San Francisco home. With nowhere else to take the impulsive and rambunctious girl, Lilly hauls her daughter to the one place she swore she'd never return--her own mother's Idaho farm. Matriarch Georgia is not your typical sweet and doting grandmother. She lives her life by a number of unbreakable rules, demanding anyone who shares her home do the same--God comes first and hard work comes a very close second. Now saddled with raising the young woman, it will require each patient breath she takes to understand Rachel's fury. But as Rachel succumbs to her summer of misery and shakes up the tiny Mormon town, Georgia notices something is changing within her granddaughter. Given structure and responsibilities, Rachel is letting her guard down and learning compassion, especially for her mother. Her journey will lead all three women to revelations of buried family secrets and an understanding that--regardless what happens--the ties that bind can never be broken
Trailer http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1809731840/trailer

Delta Farce
Down on his luck after losing his job and his girlfriend on the same day, Larry decides to join his neighbor, Bill, and his combat-happy buddy, Everett, for a relaxing weekend of drinking and target practice. But when the three hapless guys are mistaken for Army Reservists by the hard-nosed Sergeant Kilgrove, they're loaded onto an army plane headed for Fallujah, Iraq--and mistakenly ejected in a Humvee somewhere over Mexico. Convinced they're actually in the Middle East, the clueless wannabe soldiers save a rural village from a siege of bandits and become local heroes. But when Carlos Santana, a ruthless, karaoke-loving warlord, strikes back, Larry, Bill and Everett have to lay down their beers and take up their arms--and prove they just might be real soldiers after all.
Trailer http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1809712222/trailer

And for the heck of it The Ex
Tom Reilly is a bit of an underachiever when it comes to his career (or lack thereof), but his adoring wife Sofia, a formidable lawyer, has always been happy to act as the breadwinner. With the birth of their first child, Sofia decides she wants to be a stay-at-home mom, so Tom needs to step up and take care of his growing family. Unfortunately he gets fired from his job in New York City and is forced to start working with his father-in-law in Sofia's hometown of Ohio. Tom soon clashes with his work colleagues, especially the outrageous Chip, who still carries a torch for Sofia from their high school days, and Sofia becomes increasingly uncomfortable staying home with their new baby. In doing all the right things for all the wrong reasons, the couple needs to get back to what they're good at, before their model family goes completely off track.
Trailer http://movies.yahoo.com/movie/1808762734/trailer

[Jedieb]

1. Spiderman $58,545,454.998888888888888888
2. 28 Weeks $19,987,456.98888888888888888
3. Georgia Rule $11,434,876.12333333333333333333
4. Disturbia $3,944,945.0254222222222222222222222
5. Delta Crap $3,678,787.8222222222222222222222222

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL Jedieb, about #5, although that fits that film. Georgia Rule is the hardest film to predict. On the one hand its mother's day weekend and it is a chick flick which looks perfect. On the other is Lindsey Lohan who has a bad image. I am going to debate on that film till tomorrow afternoon I think.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 56.13
2. 28 Weeks Later - 16.11M
3. Georgia Rule - 8.56M
4. Disturbia - 4.68M
5. Delta Farce - 3.22M

[Kaast Dulli]

1. spiderman 3 50.15 million
2. 28 weeks 21.45 million
3. disturbia 5.56 million
4. georgia rule 5.13million
5. delta 4.22 million

good luck all...

[Jedi Master Carr]

1 Spiderman 3 54.76
2 Georgia Rule 16.32
3 28 Weeks Later 15.27
4 Disturbia 3.87
5 Delta Farce 3.01

Those bottom two are just going to suck. April was just a horrible month.

[Jedi Master Carr]

You have tll Midnight to get your picks in. Just figured I warn everybody who hasn't posted yet.

[sirdizzy]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 67.22m
2. 28 Weeks Later - 20.01M
3. Georgia Rule - 8.09M
4. Disturbia - 3.11M
5. Delta, give me your money you freaking morons because Larry the Cableguy is too dumb to get a real job and your too dumb to realize hes not funny, plus we like to make really crappy movies to see if anyone will go to them and then we laugh at all the morons in the world who paid to see this movie - 23 dollars and 50 cents (3 full price admissions and 1 matinee ticket for the 4 stupidest human beings on the face of the planet)

[Yog]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 61.03M
2. 28 Weeks Later - 14.21M
3. Georgia Rule - 12.67M
4. Disturbia - 4.41M
5. Delta Farce - 3.52M (at least they got the farce part right :lol)

[JMK]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 59.55M
2. 28 Weeks Later - 17.67M
3. Georgia Rule - 9.95M
4. Disturbia - 5.05M
5. Delta Farce - 4.25M

[Hera]

1. Spiderman 3 - 53.5m
2. 28 weeks Later - 17.2m
3. Georgia Rule - 7.3m
4. Disturbia - 4.6m
5. Fracture - 3.5m

[Ryan Pode]

1. Spider-Man 3 - $54,589,291
2. 28 Weeks Later - $23,470,384
3. Georgia Rule - $6,543,404
4. Disturbia - $4,503,704
5. Delta Farce - $3,940,059

[Yog]

Friday estimates from Showbiz Data:

1. SPIDER-MAN 3: 17,043,000 (-71%) 198,998,000
2. 28 WEEKS LATER: 3,865,000 (NEW) 3,865,000
3. GEORGIA RULE: 1,892,000 (NEW) 1,892,000
4. DISTURBIA: 1,583,000 (-24%) 63,076,000
5. DELTA FARCE: 1,179,000 (NEW) 1,179,000
6. FRACTURE 867,000 (-22%) 28,982,000
7. INVISIBLE, THE: 741,000 (-38%) 14,074,000
8. HOT FUZZ: 523,000 (-23%) 17,782,000
9. EX, THE: 502,000 (NEW) 502,000
10. NEXT: 488,000 (-48%) 13,477,000

Spiderman hurting from WOM, and taking a dramatic drop. Although, last Friday was the biggest in box box office history with midnight shows included, so it should have a much better multiplier this weekend. I think a 50% boost on saturday, and depending on the impact of mother's day, it should do around 58M and upwards (60M is possible, depending on sunday traffic). I am thinking around 60-62% drop for the weekend.

28 Weeks later is posting somewhat disappointing number, with a 3.8M on friday, which should round off to around 10M over the weekend (being a horror movie).

Georgia Rule tanked bad on friday, but should do better numbers on saturday and sunday (being mothers day). Hard to say what it will make, but it should be in the 6-8M district.

Disturbia continues to hold remarkable well. It should be on the low end of 4M over the weekend.

And finally, Delta Farce, tanks horribly as expected, and looks to have a ~3M opening.

The Ex does not even register on the radar with a 500K on friday.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Well I guess badly on Georgia Rule, I thought it would do better. I guess I completely underestimated the hatred for Lohan.

[sirdizzy]

i did bad on Delta Crap, I underestimated the number of morons in the world

[Yog]

i did bad on Delta Crap, I underestimated the number of morons in the world

Like Einstein said : "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."


Well I guess badly on Georgia Rule, I thought it would do better. I guess I completely underestimated the hatred for Lohan.

I totally underestimated it as well. I mean, the trailer was about as exciting as watching paint dry. Thought about posting a much lower number, but I am not the target audience, and it's hard to say with mother's day and all. Movies like that is so far off from what I like to see.

[Yog]

Weekend estimates from Box Office Mojo:

1 1 SPIDER-MAN 3: $60,000,000 (-60.3%) $242,071,000
2 N 28 WEEKS LATER: $10,000,000 (NEW) $10,000,000
3 N GEORGIA RULE: $5,879,000 (NEW) $5,879,000
4 2 DISTURBIA: $4,807,000 (-17.7%) $66,295,000
5 N DELTA FARCE: $3,500,000 (NEW) $3,500,000
6 3 FRACTURE: $2,900,000 (-21.5%) $30,980,000
7 4 THE INVISIBLE: $2,202,000 (-32.5%) $15,546,000
8 9 HOT FUZZ: $1,655,000 (-25.4%) $18,930,000
9 5 NEXT: $1,604,000 (-44.5%) $14,604,000
10 7 MEET THE ROBINSONS: $1,600,000 (-38.9%) $94,094,000

Check back on monday for the actuals.

[Yog]

Weekend Actuals:
1. Spider-Man 3: $58,166,256 (-61.5%)
2. 28 Weeks Later: $9,807,292 (NEW)
3. Georgia Rule: $6,773,870 (NEW)
4. Disturbia: $4,732,839 (-19.0%)
5. Delta Farce: $3,420,645 (NEW)


Accuracy points:
# 1 - 25 pts: Jedieb (Spider-man 3)
# 2 - 20 pts: Yog (28 Weeks Later)
# 3 - 15 pts: Ryan Pode (Georgia Rule)
# 4 - 10 pts: Lilaena De'Ville (Disturbia)
# 5 - 5 pts: Yog (Delta Farce)


Weekend points:
Jedieb: 50 pts
Yog: 50
Ryan Pode: 40
Lilaena De'Ville: 35
JMK: 25
sirdizzy: 25
Hera: 20
Kaast Dulli: 15
Jedi Master Carr: 15
CMJ: 15

Good week for most of us, with movie order points and all..

[Jedi Master Carr]

Jedieb sure did a good job predicting spiderman.

[Yog]

Aye, that was a good prediction of Jedieb.

And what a drop for Spiderman 3 too. About 350M is the best it can hope for at this point. Shrek 3 and POTC 3 are in much better position for #1 movie of the year right now. Speaking of which, Shrek 3 opens next weekend..

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I'm clinging to fourth place by my fingernails. ;)

[CMJ]

Can we have the total point totals?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Jedieb: 60
Lilaena De'Ville: 55
Ryan Pode: 55
Yog: 55
CMJ: 50
Hera: 45
Kaast Dulli: 45
Jedi Master Carr: 45
JMK: 35
SirDizzy: 30
Have to take into account that we will be removing the lowest 4 scores for everyone that could help some of you, but it is way too early to figure that out. Concidering that it is very close right now.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Hey second place! That's way better than 4th! :dance

[Jedieb]

EAT MY DUST SATAN!!!!!!!!!! :shootin

[Yog]

lol, I heard that before. Don't worry. I will get ya soon enough ;)