Summer 2007 Box office contest Week 1 Picks Due Friday 10PM PST

[Jedi Master Carr]

First weekend of the contest is here. I will first recap with the rules



The 2007 Summer Box office contest rules
Here, are the rules for this year’s contest. If you have any question you may ask me or Yog.
Period of contest: 4th of May to 3rd of September

1. How to play: Each weekend, predict the order of the top 5 movies, and how much each film will make. To make sure people don’t make the same predictions, post your dollar figures to the nearest ten thousand, for example "25.58M" (25 million 580 thousand).

2. Movie Order Points: For every film you place in the correct order, you get 5 points. If you get #1- 5 right, you would get 25 points.

3. Accuracy Points: The closest person to each of the five films also gets points, and they are as follows;

# 1 - 25 pts
# 2 - 20 pts
# 3 - 15 pts
# 4 - 10 pts
# 5 - 5 pts

This year you don't have to get the movies in order. If you are closest to the #2 movie and picked it third you still get the points.

4. Double Points Weekends. Points are doubled on the following weekends:
* Memorial Day May 25 - May 28 All points are doubled.
* 4th of July 4th 8th All points are doubled.
* Labor day weekend August 31st - September 3rd
* Harry Potter weekend July 13-July July 15 All points are doubled.

5. Vacation rule: New to the Contest this year, we will only count the your top 12 scores. So, if you miss a week or two you won’t be out of it.

6. Deadline: All predictions must be in by Friday 10PM PST every weekend. On double points weekends, special deadline will apply. Please make sure your predictions are in before the deadline, however, we may look the other way if the estimates are not yet made public and/or it is obvious such results have not been seen.

7. Who can play? Everyone. It is fun! You may enter or exit the contest at any time or post predictions whenever you like, as long it is within the deadline.

8. The winner: The player with the most points at the end of contest, wins instant fame and glory (being worshipped by the all the BO forum posters) AND a Supporter account!

Need to make your picks by Friday at 10PM PST. Any questions?

I am going to post a the top 10 from this past weekend and the big openers for the first weekend.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I just figured the top 8 films should be enough the other two have no prayer of making the top 5
Top 8

1 Disturbia $9,023,835
2 The Invisible $7,717,309
3 Next $7,133,049
4 Fracture $6,814,714
5 Blades of Glory $5,164,364
6 Hot Fuzz $4,876,867
7 Meet the Robinsons 4,840,972
8 Vacancy $4,112,502


New Releases Spiderman 3
Lucky You
Unless Yog beats me too I will link trailers and plot synopsis of the new releases.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I'm going to post my guestimates later but I'm excited to be taking part this year. ^_^;

[Jedi Master Carr]

I'm going to post my guestimates later but I'm excited to be taking part this year. ^_^;

I am glad to have you aboard :)

[Yog]

New Releases


Spider-man 3
<img src=http://mneh.org/pics/bo/openers/spiderman3b.jpg>

Theaters: 4,253
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/sony_pictures/spider-man_3/>Click here for Trailer</a>
Production Budget: $258,000,000 (source Sony). Rumours of +$300M with $75M in marketing, which would make it the most expensive movie ever made..
Genre: Action, Adventure, Drama, Superhero
MPAA Rating : PG-13 for sequences of intense action violence
Running Time: 139 minutes
Studio: Sony

Director: Sam Raimi (The Evil Dead 1 & 2, Spider-Man 1 & 2, Darkman, The Quick and the Dead, The Gift, A Simple Plan)

Cast: Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst, James Franco, Thomas Haden Church, Topher Grace, Bryce Dallas Howard, James Cromwell, Rosemary Harris, JK Simmons, Elizabeth Banks, Willem Dafoe, Bruce Campbell

Plot Synpopsis:
Things are looking up for Peter Parker (Tobey Maguire), as his alter ego Spider-Man is more popular than ever, and he is about ask M.J. (Kirsten Dunst) to marry him. Problems surface when he has to confront his old friend Harry (James Franco) who has taken on the Goblin mantle of his father. New villains include "The Sandman" (Thomas Haden Church) and competing photographer Eddie Brock (Topher Grace) aka "Venom".

Projection:
This is the highly anticipated 3quel to the powerful Spiderman franchise. The first Spiderman movie opened to $114M and the second at $88M (150M over a 5 day frame). This should do no worse, and expect a 3 day weekend gross between 125-145M, with a total gross of around 400M at the end of the run. The big question is if it can beat the 3-day opening weekend record of Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest, at 135M. What might hurt its overall run is the competition of 2 other huge franchies opening in may; Shrek 3 and POTC3.


Lucky You
<img src=http://mneh.org/pics/bo/openers/LuckyYoub.jpg>

Theaters: 2.500+
<a href=http://www.apple.com/trailers/wb/luckyyou/>Click here for trailer</a>
Production and advertising budget: No clue. Can't be much.
Genre: Drama
MPAA Rating : PG-13 for some language and sexual humor
Running Time: 2 hrs. 4 min
Studio: Warner Bros

Cast: Eric Bana, Drew Barrymore, Robert Duvall, Debra Messing

Director: Curtis Hanson (Eight Mile, In Her Shoes, The Wonder Boys, L.A. Confidential, The River Wild)

Plot Synopsis:
Huck Cheever (Eric Bana) attempts to win the 2003 World Series of Poker and the heart of singer Billie Offer (Drew Barrymore), realizing that the tournament might pit him against his estranged father (Robert Duvall) who abandoned his family.

Projection:
Releasing this against Spiderman 3 is a futile effort, since everyone will want to watch that instead. This project has been idle for about 2 years now, which is a sign the producers know the market and anticipation is limited. The combination of Curtis and Bana could make this a quality movie, but it's going to be under most peoples radar. Expect less than 10M opening and ~20-25M total.

[Yog]

I will start predicting. May change some of these before the deadline.

1. Spider-man 2 - 135.72M
2. Lucky You - 6.91M
3. Disturbia - 5.45M
4. Fracture - 4.26M
5. The Invisible - 4.09M

----
Close but no cigar:
Next - 3.5M
Blades of Glory - 3.06M

[Ryan Pode]

1. Spiderman 3 - $139,049,000
2. Next - 11,349,303
3. Lucky You - 7,400,391
4. Disturbia - 4,793,302
5. The Invisible - 3,392,874

[Yog]

Woah, you think "Next" is going to increase from 7M to 11M next weekend?

[Jedi Master Carr]

Actually, I think Lucky you will do over 10 million. I think it is a good release strategy by WB. It is a romantic comedy and I am sure there are a lot of women out there who have no interest in seeing Spiderman. I think it can do no more than 10-13 really though.

[Jedi Master Carr]

1. Spiderman 3 - $139,049,000
2. Next - 11,349,303
3. Lucky You - 7,400,391
4. Disturbia - 4,793,302
5. The Invisible - 3,392,874

Ryan you might need to look at the last weekend's numbers I posted :)

[Ryan Pode]

I think it will. Last weekend was a very idle weekend. I think more people will go see movies this weekend because of Spiderman 3. I think it'll have people thinking movies. And if I am wrong, I am wrong. But I stand by my prediction. Even if I have to spend 3 million dollars in movie tickets this weekend myself.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will. Last weekend was a very idle weekend. I think more people will go see movies this weekend because of Spiderman 3. I think it'll have people thinking movies. And if I am wrong, I am wrong. But I stand by my prediction. Even if I have to spend 3 million dollars in movie tickets this weekend myself.

Okay, I thought maybe you just didn't see what the movies made last weekend.

[Yog]

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117964069.html?categoryid=13&cs=1&nid=2564

Sony is bringing "Spider-Man 3" to 4,253 domestic theaters on Friday, the widest opening of all time.

North America is the last territory to see Spidey. Pic launches May 1 in more than a dozen key territories, including Japan, France, Germany, Italy and Korea; another eight on May 2; 30 on May 3 (including China, Australia and Russia) and another 30 on May 4 (including the U.K. and India).

The domestic engagements could be tweaked by a few screens more or less, but should comfortably beat the 4,163 locations where "Shrek II" bowed for DreamWorks two years ago.

Sony launched "Spider-Man 2" at 4,152 in 2004.

Only other pics to have debuted in more than 4,000 locations include "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," "Madagascar," "Superman Returns," "Over the Hedge," "Mission: Impossible 3" and "Shark Tale." All of those have been released since 2004 as Hollywood's race to put up massive opening numbers escalates.

After eight splashy premieres worldwide, Sony on Monday night made its final preem Stateside, showing "Spider-Man 3" on 14 screens simultaneously at the Tribeca Film Festival.

At the preem party in Gotham, Sony Corp. chairman and CEO Howard Stringer wondered whether the studio might've shot out "Spider-Man" last weekend in North America when overall biz was way down, giving Peter Parker even more of a chance to make his money grab.

But either way, the exec was confident, saying that he sees this installment in the series as "more of a date movie" than the first two in the franchise with the potential to draw even wider demographics.

"It's not just spills and thrills," said Stringer.

"Spider-Man" will be the first of a number of hotly anticipated summer sequels to swing into theaters, and the pic has two weekends with no true competish before having to grapple with Par/DreamWorks' "Shrek the Third" May 18. Disney's "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" sets sail the following weekend.

Auds certainly seem ready for some summer action: Last weekend, the multiplexes posted tepid numbers as Par-DreamWorks' PG-13 thriller "Disturbia" topped the charts with just $9 million in its third straight win.

"This is a great way to start the summer," said a Sony distribution honcho of "Spider-Man's" imminent launch. "Box office for the past few weeks has been lackluster, and audiences seem very ready for summer."

Sony has been adding 12:01 Friday ayem shows here to meet demand on the pic.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I disagree about date movie. I don't know too many females (who aren't already into comic books and the previous spiderman movies) who will go see this. Spiderman is no chick flick. Of course I suspect a movie exec to say that. I am curious to see which movie will make more money Spiderman 3, Shrek 3 or Pirates 3. One of those three will be #1, but I haven't a clue which.

[Kaast Dulli]

1. spiderman 3 110.25 million
2. disturbia 8.12 million
3. luck you 6.23 million
4. next 4.00 million
5. fracture 3.35 million


ok, lets see how this goes.....good luck to all

[Jedi Master Carr]

The reviews haven't been great for Spiderman 3 so far. RottenTomatoes has it at 71% with a 6.4 rating. Cream of the crop is 54% right now. The movie will get fresh but it will be down from the 90% range the two previous films got. Of course none of this matters for its opening. The average person ignores reviews for movies like this.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I think the part about females not going to see Spidey 3 is nonsense. :p There are plenty of girls who are just as rabid to see it as guys are.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think the part about females not going to see Spidey 3 is nonsense. :p There are plenty of girls who are just as rabid to see it as guys are.

Well their is a fair percentage but I don't think it is no date movie. I know some women who won't go. It also could be depending on what age group you are talking about.

[Jedi Master Carr]

My early guesses, will update later
1 Spiderman 3 144.78
2 Disturbia 6.78
3 Lucky You 5.88
4 The Invisible 5.01
5 Next 4.67

[Yog]

LOS ANGELES, May 2 /PRNewswire/ -- As a strong indicator of fan
anticipation for Friday's opening of "Spider-Man 3," the film's advance
ticket sales are surging on Fandango, the nation's leading movie ticketing
destination. Fandango is reporting that "Spider-Man 3" is currently:
* Selling six times as many tickets as "Spider-Man 2" -- and two and a
half times as many tickets as last year's "Pirates of the Caribbean:
Dead Man's Chest" -- sold at the same point in the films' respective
sales cycles on Fandango;
* Selling out dozens of Thursday, May 3 midnight shows around the country
(many theaters have added 3:00 a.m. show times to accommodate the
demand);
* Accounting for 94% of all weekly ticket sales on the site (as of
Wednesday, May 2, 9:00 a.m. PT);
* Fandango's fastest-selling movie of the year so far.
In an online poll, Fandango asked moviegoers their thoughts about
possible Spider-Man movies in the future. In responding to the poll, 58% of
fans said they would not consider buying a ticket to a fourth Spider-Man
movie with someone other than Tobey Maguire as Peter Parker. Also, 52% of
fans said they would not consider buying a ticket to a fourth Spider-Man
movie if it were directed by someone other than Sam Raimi. On the other
hand, 68% of fans said they would be interested in seeing a much-rumored
movie version of J.R.R. Tolkien's "The Hobbit" directed by Sam Raimi.
"'Spider-Man 3' has been dominating our ticket sales for several
weeks," says Fandango VP of Marketing, Ted Hong. "Given the enormous
popularity of the first two Spider-Man movies, and the fast pace of our
ticket sales, 'Spider-Man 3' should be a great kick-off for a memorable
summer season."

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/05-02-2007/0004579298&EDATE=

[Yog]

Box Office Prediction sites chime in...

<a href=http://www.boxofficeguru.com/weekend.htm>Box Office Guru</a>
Spider-Man 3 - 140M
Lucky You - 7M
Disturbia - 5M
The Invisible - 4M
Next - 3.5M

<a href=http://www.leesmovieinfo.net/Predictions.php>Lee's Movie Info</a>
1. Spider-Man 3 - $129.717M
2. Disturbia - $5.311M
3. Fracture - $4.104M
4. Lucky You - $3.848M
5. The Invisible - $3.592M
6. Next - $3.389M

<a href=http://www.boxofficereport.com/wbon/forecast.shtml>Box Office Report</a>
1. Spider-Man 3 - $145.0 m
2. Lucky You - $8.0 m
3. Disturbia - $5.0 m
4. The Invisible - $4.0 m
5. Fracture - $3.8 m
6. Hot Fuzz - $3.5 m
7. Next - $3.2 m
8. Blades of Glory - $3.0 m

[sirdizzy]

i guess I'll do a prelim pick and change it later if needs be

1. Spiderman 3 138.33 million
2. Lucky You 7.96 million
3. Disturbia 5.45 million
4. Next 3.89 million
5. Hot Fuzz 3.67 million

[Lilaena De'Ville]

Ok, here goes nothing, and no laughing from the peanut gallery!! :mad

;)

1. Spider-Man 2 - 145.11M
2. Lucky You - 10.42M
3. Disturbia - 5.02M
4. The Invisible - 3.81M
5. Next - 3.19M

[CMJ]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 150.19M
2. Lucky You - 8.02M
3. Disturbia - 5.10M
4. The Invisible - 4.76M
5. Fracture - 3.82M

[Jedieb]

1. Spider-Man 3 - 144.444444444444444444444444444444444M
2. Lucky You - 9.7348958697598798579348578979873895798M
3. Disturbia - 6.1009877777777777707879878797979789M
4. The Invisible - 4.16657656567557656756575M
5. Fracture - 3.26757657657556757656757657656757M

[Yog]

This is a reminder the deadline for submitting or modifying predictions is FRIDAY (tonight) at 10 pm Pacific Standard Time (7 hours from this post). That is at Saturday 1 AM EST or 6 AM GMT. Just so no one forgets :)

[Jedi Master Carr]

Thank you for the reminder Yog :)

[Hera]

Ok, my first stab at this:

1. Spiderman 3 = $142.75m
2. Lucky You = $6.50m
3. Disturbia = $5.85m
4. Fracture = $5.25m
5. The Invisible = $5.10m

[JMK]

I don't know if I'm late or early or what, but here's my picks:

1. Spider-Man 3 - 147.32M
2. Lucky You - 11.56M
3. Disturbia - 6.10M
4. The Invisible - 3.5M
5. Fracture - 2.99M

[Jedi Master Carr]

I don't know if I'm late or early or what, but here's my picks:

1. Spider-Man 3 - 147.32M
2. Lucky You - 11.56M
3. Disturbia - 6.10M
4. The Invisible - 3.5M
5. Fracture - 2.99M


You made it just in time.

[Ryan Pode]

I don't know if I'm late or early or what, but here's my picks:

1. Spider-Man 3 - 147.32M
2. Lucky You - 11.56M
3. Disturbia - 6.10M
4. The Invisible - 3.5M
5. Fracture - 2.99M

You made it just in time.

lol. Yeah you did. Posted at 12:59:33. 1 PM is the cutoff.

[Yog]

Spiderman broke the 1 day record with an estimated $58M! Lucky You flops horribly with a ~1M friday gross...

Friday estimates:
1. SPIDER-MAN 3 SONY 57,980,000 n/a
2. DISTURBIA PARAMOUNT 1,992,000 -40%
3. INVISIBLE, THE BVI 1,153,000 -62%
4. FRACTURE NEW LINE 1,099,000 -48%
5. LUCKY YOU WARNER BROS. 950,000 n/a
6. NEXT PARAMOUNT 929,000 -60%
7. BLADES OF GLORY PARAMOUNT 786,000 -53%
8. HOT FUZZ FOCUS FEATURES 685,000 -56%
9. MEET THE ROBINSON BVI 641,000 -50%
10. VACANCY SCREEN GEMS 525,000 -62%

[Jedi Master Carr]

That is amazing should make 145-150 for the weekend. Lucky you is a bomb. I started seeing that when I saw the crowd reports. I just didn't push it down far enough lol. I think the movie had some horrible marketing or it was a movie that WB was just trying to dump, I am not sure which. The reviews for it weren't kind.

[Yog]

That is amazing should make 145-150 for the weekend. Lucky you is a bomb. I started seeing that when I saw the crowd reports. I just didn't push it down far enough lol. I think the movie had some horrible marketing or it was a movie that WB was just trying to dump, I am not sure which. The reviews for it weren't kind.

So.. what happened to your counter programming theory? :lol

I think both things happened actually. On one hand they had essentially a mediocre 3 year old movie, which was hard to sell / market right from the bat. The Studio must have known this from test screenings. I mean for cripes sake, it's about the 2003 World Series of Poker, which should tell you something how long this project was on the shelf. Then the drama / poker angle, which probably does not click well with the chicks and couples who are just looking for the light heart romance and comedy. Then the trailer, which made the movie look about as unique and interesting as a peanut butter sandwich. Then they try and counter program it against Spiderman. Let's face it, 95% of the audience out there wants to see Spiderman, and those who did not, would rather stay home or watch some of the other movies which quite frankly look more exciting. In the end, I think releasing it this week hurt it more than helped, cause Spiderman was so dominating, it caused everything else to drop bad.

[Jedi Master Carr]

So.. what happened to your counter programming theory? :lol

I think both things happened actually. On one hand they had essentially a mediocre 3 year old movie, which was hard to sell / market right from the bat. The Studio must have known this from test screenings. I mean for cripes sake, it's about the 2003 World Series of Poker, which should tell you something how long this project was on the shelf. Then the drama / poker angle, which probably does not click well with the chicks and couples who are just looking for the light heart romance and comedy. Then the trailer, which made the movie look about as unique and interesting as a peanut butter sandwich. Then they try and counter program it against Spiderman. Let's face it, 95% of the audience out there wants to see Spiderman, and those who did not, would rather stay home or watch some of the other movies which quite frankly look more exciting. In the end, I think releasing it this week hurt it more than helped, cause Spiderman was so dominating, it caused everything else to drop bad.

I think you could have found a film to counter Spiderman. There was something back in 2004 that did okay. But this movie just wasn't it. I should have realized it when I saw hardly any commericals around here. WB knew it was a stinker and was just trying to dump it.

[Yog]

It might have helped if it was released in june / july, with less competition and with better marketing, but yeah, it would have done poorly no matter what.

Spider-man 3 should take the weekend record too now, I think. And it has a good shot at some other records as well, 2nd weekend and fastest to 200. Problem is, word of mouth is not the best. This should hurt the overall gross in the end, and 400M might be a reach. Not to mention, it will soon face some competition from Skrek 3 and POTC 3.

[Jedi Master Carr]

I think it will end up making 350-360 range. 400 is going to be very hard, IMO. I don't think any of the May movies will make 400 though.

[Kaast Dulli]

well, i was wayyyyyyyy offff. good lord.


http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/us-spidey-3-looking-bigger-than-1-or-2/

[Jedi Master Carr]

This is more reliable http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/
I just like there chart better actually. That is about what I expected. I do think the legs won't be great. Probably will end up with 350-370. I think it will be very frontloaded more because of the competition than anything else.

[Rutabaga]

I don't think the legs will be great either...I'm pretty lenient when it comes to movies, but as I've said in the Spider-Man 3 thread, I did not like the movie and in all honesty will not be recommending it to people. Plus, the user ratings at Rotten Tomatoes are in the upper 60% range, which isn't always a good sign. It's going to be huge this weekend, probably next weekend too, but once other biggies like Shrek the Third and Pirates of the Caribbean come along, Spidey will take a significant hit.

I just wonder what the big sleeper of the summer will be, there's always one...not sure which one it might be, although I think Knocked Up has a good shot at it.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Knocked up is a good choice. I could see that being a sleeper.

[Yog]

Weekend Actuals:

1. Spider-Man 3: $151,116,516 (NEW!)
2. Disturbia: $5,720,000 (-36.6%)
3. Fracture: $3,420,000 (-49.8%)
4. The Invisible: $3,261,374 (-57.7%)
5. Next: $2,768,000 (-61.2%)

Spider-man 3 shatters the opening day and weekend record. Lucky You did not even make top 5. Big drops for everything except Disturbia.

Scores to come up.

[Yog]

Accuracy points:

# 1 - 25 pts: CMJ (Spider-man 3)
# 2 - 20 pts: Hera (Disturbia)
# 3 - 15 pts: Kaast Dulli (Fracture)
# 4 - 10 pts: Ryan Pode (The Invisible)
# 5 - 5 pts: Lilaena De'Ville (Next)


Weekend points:
CMJ: 35
Hera: 25
Kaast Dulli: 25
Lilaena De'Ville: 20
Jedi Master Carr: 20
Ryan Pode: 15
JMK: 10
Jedieb: 10
SirDizzy: 5
Yog: 5

CMJ flies into the lead. The ladies do well. And I have to share the misery with SirDizzy. Even that scoundrel Jedieb is in front of me.. :lol

[Jedi Master Carr]

LOL well this can be one of your bad weeks. I have to say I am shocked that Spiderman was actually underestimated. I thought it would be the other way around.

[Lilaena De'Ville]

I'm in the middle of the pack and feel pretty good about it. ;)

[Hera]

Look at me - second place, in week one.:hurr

(Thanks for the help, Yog)
*takes blatant opportunity to hug the lil' green*:glomp

[CMJ]

Don't worry...I won't be in first for long. I've never gotten 1st...never. And except for last year we've played this game in one form or another every summer since 1999.

I think I got 2nd once.

[Jedi Master Carr]

Don't worry...I won't be in first for long. I've never gotten 1st...never. And except for last year we've played this game in one form or another every summer since 1999.

I think I got 2nd once.

who knows this year could be different. It is the same with me, I finished second once as well.

[Kaast Dulli]

wow, i am happy to be in 3rd. wait, no tied for second...... considering i was off on spiderman 3 by 43 million dollars......

[Jedieb]

Eat my dust Satan!!!!!!!!!!!! :shootin